ARTICLE IN PRESS Journal of Arid Environments Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 www.elsevier.com/locate/jnlabr/yjare Long-term vegetation monitoring with NDVI in a diverse semi-arid setting, central New Mexico, USA Jeremy L. Weissa,b,*, David S. Gutzlera, Julia E. Allred Coonrodc, Clifford N. Dahmd b a Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA Department of Geosciences Environmental Studies Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA c Department of Civil Engineering, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA d Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA Received 6 August 2002; accepted 9 July 2003 Abstract Time-series of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are shown to capture essential features of seasonal and inter-annual vegetation variability at six nearby yet distinct vegetation communities in semi-arid New Mexico, USA NDVI values tend to follow a uniform order across communities, related directly to local vegetation. All communities exhibit a bimodal growing season on average, with peaks in springtime and summer. NDVI fluctuations are more spatially uniform in spring than in summer. NDVI variability corresponds to precipitation variability from the North American monsoon and El NiñoSouthern Oscillation, and shows agreement with regional ground measurements. r 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: AVHRR; NDVI; Remote sensing; Vegetation; Phenology; Climate; Time-series; Southwestern North America 1. Introduction Land surface monitoring over long time-scales is necessary to discern ecosystem responses to climate variability. Arid and semi-arid ecosystems provide unique *Corresponding author. Department of Geosciences Environmental Studies Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA. Tel.: +1 520 621 80255. E-mail address: [email protected] (J.L. Weiss). 0140-1963/$ - see front matter r 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2003.07.001 ARTICLE IN PRESS 250 J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 environments for detecting climate variation realized through changes in precipitation, as water is the most limiting resource in these environments (Hadley and Szarek, 1981). Shortly after rainfall events, annual and perennial plants usually respond with germination, growth, and reproduction (Morgan Ernest et al., 2000). Multi-year drought and pluvial periods also affect these environments, influencing plant community composition, physiology, and growth (Ehleringer et al., 1991; Swetnam and Betancourt, 1998). Remote sensing images from an advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) were originally intended to observe cloud and ocean parameters (Peters and Eve, 1995; United States Geological Survey, 2001), but have subsequently been used to monitor and characterize Earth’s land surface. Vegetation indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) have been derived from AVHRR images, allowing a coarse (1 km2) spatial scale land surface characterization with relatively high temporal resolution (global coverage twice daily). NDVI is the ratio of the amounts of reflectance in the near infrared (NIR) and red (RED) portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (ranges 0.72–1.10 and 0.58– 0.68 mm, respectively), calculated using the formula NDVI ¼ ðNIR REDÞ=ðNIR þ REDÞ: NDVI thus theoretically takes values ranging from –1.0 to +1.0. Positive NDVI values (NIR>RED) indicate green, vegetated surfaces, and higher values indicate increases in green vegetation. Reflectance of the red portion of the spectrum decreases as solar radiation is absorbed, largely by chlorophyll, whereas reflectance of the near infrared portion is caused by leaf mesophyll structure (Kremer and Running, 1993). Negative NDVI values indicate non-vegetated surfaces such as water, ice, and snow. Studies have related NDVI to biophysical variables such as leaf area, canopy coverage, productivity, and chlorophyll density as well as to vegetation phenology (Goward et al., 1985; Justice et al., 1985; Tucker et al., 1985; Townshend and Justice, 1986; Spanner et al., 1990; Yoder and Waring, 1994; Peters and Eve, 1995; Prince et al., 1995). Uncertainties in relating NDVI to vegetation are associated with the effects of atmospheric variations, sensor calibration, and sensor degradation over time on AVHRR measurements (James and Kullari, 1994; Townshend, 1995). Surface heterogeneity also complicates interpretation of NDVI. Due to low values that result from sparse vegetation, uncertainties in interpreting NDVI can increase in arid and semi-arid environments. Vegetation canopies in arid and semi-arid environments do not achieve complete coverage, making NDVI susceptible to the spectral influence of the soil and soil moisture in gaps between vegetation (Kremer and Running, 1993; Peters and Eve, 1995). Nonetheless, studies examining seasonal and inter-annual behavior of different vegetation types have demonstrated usefulness of NDVI in arid and semi-arid environments. Malo and Nicholson (1990) concluded that phenology of six vegetation types in the Sahel in western Africa as measured by NDVI is affected by soil moisture availability. Peters and Eve (1995) and Peters et al. (1997) differentiated shrub, grass, and mixed shrub and grass vegetation of incomplete canopy coverage in a Chihuahuan Desert site in southern New Mexico. Through ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 251 interpretation of the temporal differences of NDVI time-series with respect to seasonal precipitation, these authors concluded that fixed measurement areas normalize the soil background influence so that meaningful vegetation signals can be distinguished. Over a 2-year time period in the Negev Desert in Israel, Schmidt and Karnieli (2000) found peaks in NDVI values coinciding with field observations of annual and perennial vegetation response to rainfall. The objective of this study is to examine 11 years (1990–2000) of seasonal and inter-annual variability of NDVI in a diverse semi-arid setting in central New Mexico, USA, that includes six different vegetation communities: Great Plains/ desert grassland (GPGrslnd), Chihuahuan Desert (ChiDes), piñon-juniper woodland (PJWdlnd), juniper savanna (JunSav), Colorado Plateau shrub-steppe (CPShbStp), and Colorado Plateau grassland (CPGrslnd) (Moore, 1989–2001). Principal vegetation classes found at each community are listed in Table 1. Analysis areas are separated from each other by just 10–20 km but feature distinct vegetation compositions related to sharp gradients of elevation, aspect, and soil. The south-western United States exhibits a summer season precipitation maximum associated with the North American monsoon system (Douglas et al., 1993; Higgins et al., 1997). On inter-annual time-scales the area is influenced by precipitation variability associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles recurring on average several times per decade (Andrade and Sellers, 1988; Sheppard et al., 2002). Qualitative evaluation of a long-term NDVI dataset with respect to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability at the community level from south-western North America is currently absent from the literature. This study thus provides a needed understanding of effects on vegetation resulting from climate variability. 2. Data and analysis techniques 2.1. Site description The Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge and Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) site (hereafter Sevilleta) is located approximately 100 km south of Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA (Fig. 1). Established in 1989 for examining ecosystem responses to natural and anthropogenic disturbances at various spatial and temporal scales, the Sevilleta covers approximately 1000 km2 of the middle Rio Grande basin, a varied landscape ranging from the riverside riparian corridor and Chihuahuan Desert to flat grassland plains and mountainous evergreen forests (http://sevilleta.unm.edu). It is a transition area for several biomes, providing a good sample of vegetation communities that are extensive across south-western North America. A network of meteorological stations monitors large spatial and temporal variations in weather, facilitating studies of joint climate and vegetation variability. All six vegetation communities in this study have a respective meteorological station (Table 1). ARTICLE IN PRESS 252 J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 Table 1 Meteorological station properties (Moore, 1989–2001) and principal vegetation classes (Muldavin and Milne, 1993; Shore, 1989–2001a) of the six vegetation communities. Vegetation community Meteorological station, elevation and location Principal vegetation classes Great Plains/desert grassland 1596 m: 34.36 N, 106.69 W Chihuahuan Desert 1538 m: 34.22 N, 106.80 W Piñon-juniper woodland 1971 m: 34.37 N, 106.54 W Juniper savanna 1766 m: 34.40 N, 107.04 W Colorado Plateau shrub-steppe 1503 m: 34.30 N, 106.93 W Colorado Plateau grassland 1547 m: 34.41 N, 106.93 W Transition Chihuahuan and Great Basin grasslands Transition Chihuahuan and Plains grasslands Chihuahuan Desert grasslands Great Basin grasslands Chihuahuan or Great Basin lowland/swale grasslands Chihuahuan Desert shrublands Transition Chihuahuan and Great Basin grasslands Rocky Mountain conifer woodlands Rocky Mountain conifer savanna Rocky Mountain conifer savanna Great Basin grasslands Chihuahuan Desert grasslands Rocky Mountain conifer woodlands Great Basin shrublands Great Basin grasslands Great Basin grasslands Transition Chihuahuan and Great Basin grasslands Principal vegetation classes comprise at least 80% of the analysis area of each vegetation community. Average seasonal cycles of temperature at the six communities show constant order associated with elevation (Fig. 2). Higher elevation communities (juniper savanna and piñon-juniper woodland) are significantly cooler than the others. Among the four lower elevation communities, the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau shrub-steppe are slightly warmer than the Great Plains/desert grassland and Colorado Plateau grassland. Highest values consistently occur in June and July and lowest values in December and January. Inter-annual temperature variability is greatest in November, December, January, and February (Weiss, 2002). May and September also display notable variability. As is the case throughout the south-western United States, precipitation is mostly generated by large-scale frontal systems from October to May, whereas thunderstorm activity associated with the North American monsoon is responsible for most precipitation from late June to September (Douglas et al., 1993; Sheppard et al., 2002). Monthly precipitation variability during the 1990–2000 analysis period is shown in Fig. 3. As previously mentioned, ENSO cycles affect inter-annual ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 Utah Colorado Arizona New Mexico 253 Colorado Kansas New Mexico Oklahoma Texas Albuquerque 35N 105W Rio Gra nd e 110W SEVILLETA 100W 35N UNITED STATES MEXICO New Mexico Arizona Sonora Chihuahua Texas N MEXICO 100 0 100 200 300 km UNITED STATES E W S Fig. 1. Location of the Sevilleta LTER site, approximately 100 km south of Albuquerque, NM, USA. precipitation variability during the winter and spring (Andrade and Sellers, 1988; Sheppard et al., 2002). El Niño events typically result in above average precipitation during these seasons while La Niña events typically provide below average precipitation. El Niño conditions were present during 1992, 1993, and 1998, and those of La Niña in 1999. Inter-annual variability during the summer is less coherent and more difficult to associate with large-scale climate variability. On average, highest monthly precipitation amounts occur in July, August, and September (these 3 months accounting for about half the annual total) with lower amounts in the other months (Fig. 4). With the exception of April, order among the analysis areas is nearly constant, precipitation generally increasing with elevation (Table 1). The piñon-juniper woodland records the highest precipitation amounts, followed by the remaining vegetation communities. The juniper savanna and Chihuahuan Desert receive the greatest amounts, followed by the Colorado Plateau shrub-steppe, Great Plains/desert grassland, and Colorado Plateau grassland. Average monthly precipitation amounts during the analysis period ranged from 5.1 to 68.3 mm considering all six vegetation communities (Moore, 1989–2001). ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 254 AVHRR Biweekly Composite Period 40 35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 14 15 16 17 GPGrslnd ChiDes PJWdlnd JunSav CPShbStp CPGrslnd Temperature Degrees Celsius 30 25 20 15 10 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Fig. 2. Monthly average (1990–2000) maximum temperature ( C) at the meteorological stations at each of the six vegetation communities (see Table 1). 120 Precipitation 100 Amount (mm) 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Fig. 3. Monthly precipitation amounts for the analysis period (1990–2000). Values are averaged over all six vegetation communities. ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 255 AVHRR Biweekly Composite Period 80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 70 Precipitation Amount (m m) 60 50 GPGrslnd ChiDes PJW dlnd JunSav CPShbStp CPGrslnd 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Fig. 4. Like Fig. 2, but for monthly average precipitation (mm). 2.2. NDVI NDVI time-series for the six vegetation communities were derived from the AVHRR biweekly composite images available from the Sevilleta (Shore, 1989– 2001b). These images were originally obtained from the EROS Data Center of the US Geological Survey (United States Geological Survey, 2001). NDVI can be calculated at several points during processing of AVHRR data. For biweekly composite images, NDVI is calculated using reflectance values after calibration of the NIR and RED channels and before byte range scaling, thereby retaining the most precision. The composite procedure selects the image for an individual pixel that minimizes atmospheric contamination such as haze or cloud cover. This procedure also mitigates effects of directional reflectance, off-nadir (i.e., nonperpendicular to surface) viewing, sun angle, and shadows (Holben, 1986). For Sevilleta online access purposes, AVHRR images of the conterminous US are georegistered and clipped to an area extending 50 km beyond the state border of New Mexico (Shore, 1989–2001b). NDVI values were rescaled to range from 0 to 200 (United States Geological Survey, 2001). Non-vegetated surfaces take values from 0 to 100 and green, vegetated surfaces from 100 to 200. Complete annual coverage with AVHRR images did not occur until 1995, with portions of October–March missing in the years from 1989 to 1994. Previous work has shown, however, that NDVI time-series of different vegetation during the nongrowing season do not provide clear phenological separation (Ramsey et al., 1995; Senay and Elliott, 2000). Therefore only images representing the growing season ARTICLE IN PRESS 256 J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 (i.e., greatest vegetative activity), approximately from March to October, were utilized in this study. AVHRR images for the 1994 growing season ended in midSeptember due to the failure of the NOAA-11 satellite (Minor et al., 1999). A 5-km-diameter circle surrounding a meteorological station, including approximately 20 1 km2 AVHRR pixels, delineates the analysis area for each vegetation community (Fig. 5a). The size of each area is limited to account for the localized rainfall from convective thunderstorms during the summer. Gosz et al. (1995) used a 3-km-radius circle to study the relationship between summer rainfall and lightning at the Sevilleta. Sensitivity analyses to determine effects of analysis area size on NDVI mean values were done for this study, comparing diameters of 3, 4, and 5 km. Mean NDVI values for each were comparable and the 5-km-diameter area was chosen to increase the statistical robustness of each biweekly average. The six vegetation communities used in this analysis represent a substantial fraction of the vegetation communities at the Sevilleta. Using ArcView and ArcInfo geographic information system (GIS) software, 1 km 1 km NDVI values were extracted in grid format from each AVHRR image (ESRI, 1999; Fig. 5b). An example NDVI grid from the biweekly composite period 2–15 July 1999 can be seen in Fig. 5b. The highest NDVI values occur in the agricultural and riparian areas along the Rio Grande through the center of the grid, and areas at higher elevations near the north-west and eastern boundaries of the Sevilleta. Smaller patches of greenness in the interior of the Sevilleta are likely due to vegetation responding to localized rainfall from convective thunderstorms during the monsoon season. Within the six analysis areas the range, mean, and standard deviation of 1 km2 NDVI values were calculated for each composite period. Mean biweekly NDVI values for an analysis area are used in the construction of the time-series. Despite utilization of the biweekly composite procedure, outliers with very unrealistic low values still occurred, most likely due to atmospheric contamination from haze and cloud cover. These values were subjectively omitted from the analysis. In 2000, for example, outliers occurred at both the Great Plains/desert grassland and piñonjuniper woodland during the ninth biweekly composite period, and at the juniper savanna during the eleventh (Fig. 6). Considering all six analysis areas, 22 out of a total of 1104 NDVI data points were removed during the study period (Weiss, 2002). Individual analysis areas had no more than one omission per growing season. Techniques to create cloud masks with which to filter NDVI data, such as using AVHRR thermal data (Peters et al., 1997), or to model time-series data for estimates to replace outliers were not used in this study. 3. Results and interpretation 3.1. Annual and average characteristics Considerable uniform time-series behavior among the vegetation communities exists each year. In 1990 for example, all communities display increases in NDVI ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 257 Fig. 5. Maps of the Sevilleta (see Fig. 1) showing the six vegetation community analysis areas superimposed on (a) elevation above sea level and (b) a representative biweekly NDVI image. Locations of the six analysis areas are outlined by 5-km-diameter circles that surround a meteorological station. Actual spatial extent of the areas is further limited by the Sevilleta boundary for all areas except the Great Plains/ desert grassland. The NDVI image in (b) is from the biweekly composite period 2 July–15 July 1999. Each pixel is 1 km 1 km. ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 258 Mar 135 130 Apr Jun May Jul Aug Sep Oct GPGrslnd ChiDes PJWdlnd JunSav CPShbStp CPGrslnd NDVI 2000 NDVI Value 125 120 115 110 105 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Biweekly Composite Period Fig. 6. NDVI time-series of each of the six vegetation communities during 2000. Months in which the biweekly composite periods approximately fall are given at the top of the graph. from March into May, followed by decreases that culminate in a pre-monsoon minimum in July (Fig. 7). At this point, NDVI increases again during the growing season for all communities and continues to increase to the end of the analysis period in October. The piñon-juniper woodland always exhibits the highest NDVI values, followed by the juniper savanna. The remaining communities display variably ordered NDVI values. NDVI values computed for the different vegetation communities are reasonably close to corresponding vegetation in other studies performed in southern New Mexico. Peters and Eve (1995) and Peters et al. (1997) report NDVI values for grass, grass/shrub, and shrub regions from approximately 105 to 130 (on the scale of 0–200 used in this study). These regions also showed ordinal consistency, with grass regions highest, grass/shrub regions second highest, and shrub regions lowest, in agreement with values in this study. No literature explicitly describing NDVI values in savanna and woodland communities in New Mexico has been published to date. Nonetheless, it is expected that this vegetation will exhibit higher NDVI values, as grasslands and shrublands are often of lower plant density and stature than savanna and woodland vegetation, resulting in lower canopy coverage and hence lower NDVI values (Nemani and Running, 1997). The 11-year average NDVI time-series of the vegetation communities generally display uniform behavior through the growing season (Fig. 8). The piñon-juniper woodland always records the highest NDVI values, followed by the juniper savanna except during the summer when the Great Plains/desert grassland exhibits similar values. The Great Plains/desert grassland, Chihuahuan Desert, Colorado Plateau ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 135 Mar Apr Jun May Jul Aug Sep Oct GPGrslnd ChiDes PJWdlnd JunSav CPShbStp CPGrslnd NDVI 1990 130 125 NDVI Value 259 120 115 110 105 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Biweekly Composite Period Fig. 7. Like Fig. 6, but for 1990. shrub-steppe, and Colorado Plateau grassland have similar values during the first half of the growing season while separating (higher values at Great Plains/desert grassland and Chihuahuan Desert) during the second half. NDVI time-series values for the 11-year averages range from 109.8 to 126.5 for the six communities during the analysis period. Despite similar NDVI values during the spring, the Colorado Plateau shrubsteppe and grassland exhibit lower NDVI values than the Great Plains/desert grassland and Chihuahuan Desert during the summer (Fig. 8). This difference may be attributable to lower summertime leaf area, canopy coverage, chlorophyll density, or productivity occurring in the two Colorado Plateau vegetation communities compared to the Great Plains/desert grassland and Chihuahuan Desert. This seasonal divergence may also relate to effects of soils on moisture availability found at the four analysis areas, although some soils at the Great Plains/desert grassland, Chihuahuan Desert, and Colorado Plateau grassland are similar (Johnson, 1988). Additionally, the divergence may suggest differential vegetation responses to summer climate conditions such as responsiveness to precipitation or limitations from high temperatures. Such differential responses have been observed at intra- and interspecific levels in the south-western United States (Ehleringer et al., 1991; Flanagan et al., 1992; Donovan and Ehleringer, 1994; Lin et al., 1996; Weltzin and McPherson, 1997; Williams and Ehleringer, 2000). The 11-year average seasonal cycle of NDVI provides a clear distinction between spring and summer components of the growing season (Fig. 8). Local maxima are in the periods April–May and August–September–October. Local minima are in the March and June–July periods. The former minimum coincides with the beginning of ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 260 135 Apr May SPRING Mar Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct SUMMER 130 NDVI Value 125 GPGrslnd ChiDes PJWdlnd JunSav CPShbStp CPGrslnd 120 115 110 105 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Biweekly Composite Period Fig. 8. NDVI average (1990–2000) time-series of each of the six vegetation communities. Months in which the biweekly composite periods approximately fall are given at the top of the graph. the growing season and the latter minimum is promoted by high temperatures (Fig. 2) and low precipitation (Fig. 4) that are typical during this time of the year, immediately before the climatological onset of the monsoon. These climatic conditions may signal a transition between optimal conditions for plants with C3 and C4 photosynthetic pathways, ways in which carbon dioxide is incorporated and carbohydrates made. Plants with the C3 photosynthetic pathway have optimum temperatures for photosynthesis from 20 C to 25 C, a low light saturation threshold, and begin reducing photosynthesis under moderate water stress (Smith, 1992; Hopkins, 1995). C4 plants have optimum temperatures for photosynthesis from 30 C to 45 C, difficulty in reaching light saturation, and the capability to continue photosynthesis under moderate water stress. Despite these seemingly clear differences, arbitrarily assigning behavioral characteristics of a particular pathway to vegetation can be very difficult (Smith, 1992). Some C3 plants, for instance, do not have a low light saturation threshold. Peters and Eve (1995) and Peters et al. (1997) used similar reasoning for interpreting a similar decline in NDVI time-series of grass, shrub, and grass/shrub vegetation regions in southern New Mexico. Other potential mechanisms may also contribute to the pre-monsoon NDVI minimum in late spring and early summer. Standing dead material of senescent vegetation (e.g., grasses) is subject to photodegradation from exposure to high temperatures and high solar radiation during this part of the growing season. Photodegradation has been observed to result in considerable surface litter losses in the Chihuahuan Desert of southern New Mexico (Moorhead and Reynolds, 1989). Such losses may cause decreases in NDVI, as senescent vegetation displays a higher ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 261 NDVI value than bare soil (Kremer and Running, 1993). Malo and Nicholson (1990) observed a similar NDVI decrease in western Africa before the rainy season and attributed the decline to atmospheric contamination from increases in water vapor and aerosols. Analogous conditions occur in south-western North America as humid monsoon air moves northward into the region and dust emissions may increase due to decreased soil moisture (Holcombe et al., 1997). Spectral influences from bare soil and decreasing soil moisture may also partially produce this NDVI minimum. Bimodal growing seasons alter nutrient dynamics of plant communities in southwestern North America, creating interactions across seasons. Gutierrez and Whitford (1987) stated that lower than expected growth of Chihuahuan Desert annuals was most likely due to soil nitrogen deficiencies resulting from two successive seasons of high annual growth. Using an 18-year record of winter and summer annuals in south-eastern Arizona, Guo and Brown (1997) noticed a negative relationship between temporally separated annuals, as large numbers of plants never occurred in successive seasons. The authors hypothesized that plant growth of one season depletes and immobilizes nutrients long enough to affect growth in the following season. Such cross-seasonal interactions are less known with respect to perennial vegetation and study of these conditional dynamics is warranted. 3.2. Inter-annual characteristics The NDVI time-series for each vegetation community displays inter-annual variability from 1990 to 2000 throughout the growing season. For example, the Great Plains/desert grassland exhibits spring NDVI time-series increases in 1990, 1992, and 1998 and little to no spring NDVI increases in the remaining years (Fig. 9). Although increases in the NDVI time-series happen more often during the second half of the growing season, timing varies from year to year. In 1999, for instance, the NDVI peaks in August while in 1997 the peak occurs in late September. Minimum values during the growing season occur at the beginning or end of the growing season or immediately before the start of the monsoon, while maximum values occur during the monsoon season in all years except in 1998 when the maximum occurs in May. High variability of precipitation results in high variability of vegetation production within arid and semi-arid ecosystems (Ludwig, 1986, pp. 5–18). High inter-annual and interseasonal variability have been found in previous studies of abundance of ephemerals in south-eastern Arizona (Guo and Brown, 1997), net primary production (NPP) in grasslands of southern New Mexico (Huenneke et al., 2002), and grassland cover at the Sevilleta (Morgan Ernest et al., 2000). Thus it is not surprising that NDVI time-series of these vegetation communities display large interannual and interseasonal variability and that NDVI behavior of individual years and the 11-year average have poor similarity. NDVI time-series behavior of the Great Plains/desert grassland and Colorado Plateau shrub-steppe are in agreement with time-series of spring and late summer percent cover measurements of nearby plots reported by Morgan Ernest et al. (2000). In each of these locales, all time-series show general increases from 1990 to 1992–1993, decreases from 1992–1993 to 1996, and ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 262 Mar 135 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NDVI Great Plains Grassland 130 NDVI Value Apr 125 120 115 110 105 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Biweekly Composite Period 13 14 15 16 17 18 135 NDVI Value 130 125 120 115 110 105 135 NDVI Value 130 125 120 115 110 105 Fig. 9. NDVI time-series from the Great Plains/desert grassland community. Months in which the biweekly composite periods approximately fall are given at the top of the graph. increases from 1996 to 1997. Examination of relationships between NDVI and grassland biomass and NPP are currently underway at the Sevilleta. Ability of NDVI to represent vegetation variability in arid and semi-arid ecosystems is also evident through use of the bimodal seasonal cycle to distinguish ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 263 cool and warm growing seasons. The Great Plains/desert grassland, Chihuahuan Desert, piñon-juniper woodland, Colorado Plateau shrub-steppe, and Colorado Plateau grassland communities each have a local minimum in late June and early July (Fig. 8). For the juniper savanna, this local minimum is during the middle of July. Using this average local minimum value to separate the two parts of the growing season, the cool season (‘‘spring’’) is henceforth defined as the first nine biweekly composite periods of a particular growing season (approximately from March to June), while the warm season (‘‘summer’’) is defined as the last eight biweekly composite periods (approximately from July to middle October). The slight temporal deviation of the local minimum at the juniper savanna does not warrant concern in these seasonal prescriptions since the NDVI time-series values for the 10th and 11th biweekly periods are reasonably similar for this vegetation community. Average NDVI values for the spring (NDVISP) and summer (NDVISU) growing seasons were calculated for each vegetation community for each year. The NDVISP values computed for the analysis period once again display the ordinal consistency and strong uniform behavior observed previously (Fig. 10). The piñon-juniper woodland exhibits the highest NDVISP value every year. The juniper savanna shows the second highest values except in 1991 and 1995 when NDVISP values of the Great Plains/desert grassland are similar. Excepting these 2 years, values at the Great Plains/desert grassland are lower and similar to values computed for the Chihuahuan Desert, Colorado Plateau shrub-steppe, and Colorado Plateau grassland. General increases in NDVISP for all communities occur from 1990 to 1992, 1994 to 1995, and 1996 to 1998, while general decreases happen from 1992 to 1994, 1995 to 1996, and 1998 to 2000. 135 130 GPGrslnd ChiDes PJWdlnd JunSav CPShbStp CPG rslnd NDVISP NDVI Value 125 120 115 110 105 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Fig. 10. NDVISP time-series (1990–2000) of each of the six vegetation communities. ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 264 The coherence of inter-annual variability across the Sevilleta in springtime was quantified by calculating the linear correlation between NDVISP values for each pair of vegetation communities (Fig. 11). The highest correlation is between the Colorado Plateau shrub-steppe and Colorado Plateau grassland (r ¼ 0:99), and the lowest correlation is between the Great Plains/desert grassland and juniper savanna (r ¼ 0:91). Increased scatter mostly occurs with the lower NDVISP values. NDVISP values range from 108.4 to 127.4 across all vegetation communities. NDVISU values computed for the analysis period display less ordinal consistency and uniform behavior than those observed for NDVISP (Fig. 12). The piñon-juniper woodland again exhibits the highest NDVISU value each year while the juniper savanna usually displays the second highest. In 1991 the Great Plains/desert grassland and Chihuahuan Desert record a higher NDVISU value whereas in 1996, only the Great Plains/desert grassland is higher. In 1995, the NDVISU value for the juniper savanna is similar to that of the Great Plains/desert grassland. Compared to NDVISP values, NDVISU values showed greater separation between the Great Plains/desert grassland, Chihuahuan Desert, Colorado Plateau shrub-steppe, and Colorado Plateau grassland, as values were typically higher at the Great Plains/ desert grassland and Chihuahuan Desert. General increases in NDVISU mostly occur from 1990 to 1992 and 1995 to 1998, while general decreases happen from 1992 to 1995 and 1999 to 2000. Notable exceptions are the decrease from 1996 to 1997 at the Great Plains/desert grassland and the truncated increase/early decrease at the piñonjuniper woodland in 1998. GPGrslnd 116 ChiDes 111 r = 0.96 125 PJWdlnd NDVISP 120 r = 0.95 JunSav NDVISP 122 120 118 116 114 r = 0.92 112 116 118 120 122 124 126 128 PJWdlnd NDVISP JunSav 119 115 r = 0.91 r = 0.92 r = 0.95 r = 0.97 r = 0.97 r = 0.96 r = 0.96 r = 0.96 r = 0.96 r = 0.93 r = 0.96 115 CPShbStp 111 115 CPGrslnd 111 112 116 111 116 120 125 115 119 r = 0.99 111 115 NDVISP Fig. 11. Scatter plots of annual values of NDVISP for each pair of vegetation communities. Correlation statistics are calculated from the 11-year record. ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 265 135 130 GPGrslnd ChiDes PJWdlnd JunSav CPShbStp CPGrslnd NDVISU NDVI Value 125 120 115 110 105 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Fig. 12. NDVISU time-series (1990–2000) of each of the six vegetation communities. NDVISU for 1994 are omitted due to the shortened observation period of the growing season. The reduction in the uniform behavior of NDVISU is illustrated by lower linear correlations between values for each pair of vegetation communities (Fig. 13). The Colorado Plateau shrub-steppe and Colorado Plateau grassland still exhibit the highest correlation (r ¼ 0:92) while the lowest correlation is between the Great Plains/desert grassland and Colorado Plateau grassland (r ¼ 0:36). The pattern noted previously of more scatter at the lower values is not observed in summer. NDVISU values range from 108.1 to 130.9 across all vegetation communities. The order of NDVISP values across the vegetation communities is more constant than NDVISU (Figs. 10 and 12). Behavior of NDVI at the vegetation communities is more uniform during the first part of the growing season than during the second (Figs. 11 and 13). These characteristics reveal large-scale, regional quiescence or large-scale, regional ‘greening’ in spring and more small-scale, localized quiescence and ‘greening’ in summer. Seasonal differences in the spatial scale of quiescence and ‘greening’ can be attributable to the dynamics of regional climate and moisture availability. Precipitation in the south-west from October to May is mostly generated by westerly low-pressure systems of large spatial extent and low spatial variability (Betancourt et al., 1993, pp. 42–62; Gosz et al., 1995). Convective thunderstorms during the monsoon season produce heavy, localized precipitation with high spatial variability. Due to the temporal length of the study period, inter-annual variability of NDVI can be evaluated to both seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability. NDVISP and NDVISU values of each community are combined into time-series and juxtaposed in Fig. 14 with time-series of the southern oscillation index (SOI, obtained from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center) and monthly precipitation ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 266 GPGrslnd JunSav NDVISU 124 117 ChiDes 113 r = 0.76 r = 0.74 128 PJWdlnd NDVISU 123 r = 0.78 116 120 118 116 114 112 118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132 PJWdlnd NDVISU JunSav r = 0.70 121 122 r = 0.64 r = 0.83 r = 0.76 115 CPShbStp 112 r = 0.51 r = 0.77 r = 0.88 r = 0.61 r = 0.77 114 CPGrslnd 110 r = 0.36 116 121 r = 0.80 113 117 123 128 NDVISU 116 121 r = 0.92 112 115 Fig. 13. Scatter plots of annual values of NDVISU for each pair of vegetation communities. Correlation statistics are calculated from a 10-year record since NDVISU for 1994 are omitted due to the shortened observation period of the growing season. averaged over all six vegetation communities. The SOI is a measure of ENSO variability, with negative values associated with El Niño (warm) conditions along the equatorial Pacific and positive values associated with La Niña (cold) conditions. The general increase in NDVI from 1990 to 1993 coincides with El Niño conditions (above average winter and spring precipitation). Lower NDVI values in 1995 and the spring of 1996 match below average precipitation during this time. Although La Niña conditions (below average winter and spring precipitation) exist in 1996, a marked increase in NDVI values occurs with substantial monsoon precipitation. As previously stated, Morgan Ernest et al. (2000) also observed this notable increase with percent cover measurements at the Sevilleta. Combined effects from El Niño conditions and favorable monsoon precipitation maintain high NDVI values through 1998. Lower precipitation due to both La Niña conditions and less monsoon precipitation during the end of the study period concur with decreases in NDVI. This transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions was also observed over semi-arid eastern and southern Africa, where related changes in precipitation patterns significantly affected NDVI (Anyamba et al., 2002). 4. Discussion Results indicate that the locations and spatial extent of the six analysis areas are adequate to characterize and differentiate distinct phenologies of major vegetation communities at the Sevilleta. Due to spatial uniformity in spring, differently located ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 GPGrslnd ChiDes PJWdlnd JunSav CPShbStp CPGrslnd 135 130 NDVI Value 267 125 12 0 115 110 105 3 2 SOI 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 120 Amount (mm) 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1991 19 92 1993 1994 1995 1996 Year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Fig. 14. Time-series plots of seasonally averaged NDVI values of each of the six vegetation communities, monthly SOI, and monthly average precipitation. Monthly precipitation values are averaged over all six vegetation communities. ARTICLE IN PRESS 268 J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 analysis areas of the same vegetation community should yield similar NDVI values for a particular year to those reported in this study (Figs. 10 and 11). Similar ordering of NDVI values among different vegetation communities should also occur. NDVI values for a given vegetation community and ordinal consistency among the communities for differently located analysis areas may not display as much similarity during the summer, however, as spatial uniformity is weaker (Figs. 12 and 13). Weaker spatial uniformity suggests that analysis areas delineated by 5-km-diameter circles are sufficient to capture the high spatial variability of convective thunderstorms during the monsoon season. Influences of biological soil crusts and microphytic vegetation such as lichens on NDVI in arid and semi-arid regions have been reported (Karnieli et al., 1996, 2002; Schmidt and Karnieli, 2000). As with perennial and ephemeral vegetation, this type of vegetation also responds to precipitation variability, demonstrating the most rapid response to rainfall of the three. Possible influence of biological soil crusts and microphytic vegetation on NDVI values and variability in this study are perceived to be greater at the biweekly time-scale than at the seasonal and inter-annual timescales, as well as during periods when NDVI values are lower (e.g., 1993–1995). Effects of biological soil crusts on multi-spectral remote sensing data is under study at the Sevilleta and should be considered in future work, especially studies linking NDVI to quantitative ground measurements as biological soil crusts and microphytic vegetation may confound such correlations (Karnieli et al., 1996). Applying these characteristics of NDVI beyond the six analysis areas at the Sevilleta will help provide a better understanding of vegetation across south-western North America because the vegetation communities and climate dynamics reported in this study cover extensive parts of the region (Brown, 1994). For monitoring purposes, the property of strong uniform behavior in spring may permit the aggregation of several different vegetation communities in order to ascertain vegetation activity at larger spatial scales. Strictly limiting such aggregation is necessary to accomplish this task in the summer. Understanding the time-dependent effects of precipitation, temperature, and other meteorological variables on these NDVI data would contribute to assessments of possible environmental change resulting from climatic phenomena such as drought and global warming. The results of this study indicate that NDVI can provide a useful index of vegetation variability on seasonal and inter-annual time-scales. For the six vegetation communities studied here, the results also suggest that inter-annual variability of NDVI could show meaningful relationships with inter-annual climate variability, since the 11-year average, seasonal cycle, and inter-annual variability of NDVI reflect characteristics of the regional climate. Such correlations are the subject of a subsequent study. 5. Summary The results of this study confirm the utility of NDVI for characterizing vegetation variability in arid and semi-arid environments and allow decade-scale analysis of ARTICLE IN PRESS J.L. Weiss et al. / Journal of Arid Environments 58 (2004) 249–272 269 vegetation behavior in response to climate variability. Computing 11-year average NDVI time-series for each of the six different vegetation communities in central New Mexico shows a bimodal growing season with a pre-monsoon low that temporally matches the change in precipitation patterns and high summer temperatures. Individual growing season time-series for all communities display high large interannual variability during the 11-year period, effected by both the North American monsoon and ENSO-forced climate variability. The order of NDVI values is more constant and uniform behavior is stronger among the communities during the spring than the summer, indicating an interseasonal shift from large-scale, regional vegetation quiescence or vegetation ‘greening’ to more small-scale, localized vegetation quiescence and ‘greening’. The apparent summertime decrease in the spatial scale of vegetation variability is consistent with seasonal changes in precipitation across the region. From October to May, precipitation mostly comes from spatially extensive frontal systems, which are replaced by convective thunderstorms that produce heavy, localized precipitation with high spatial variability from June to September. Despite problems of utilizing NDVI in arid and semi-arid environments, seasonal and inter-annual variability of NDVI reported in this study displays realistic and readily explained behavior. In addition to ties between vegetation and precipitation variability already mentioned, NDVI variability agrees with observed ground measurements in this region. Ordering of NDVI values corresponds to characteristics of the vegetation communities. Results thus indicate that NDVI can provide a useful index of vegetation variability on seasonal and inter-annual time-scales, and that long-term monitoring of NDVI will help elucidate relationships between interannual fluctuations of vegetation and climate. Acknowledgements Greg Shore and Doug Moore of the Sevilleta provided invaluable assistance and comments. Two anonymous reviewers provided suggestions that improved the manuscript. 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