ENERGY
Japan: Steps towards market maturity
and cost reduction
All-Energy 2016
Magnus Ebbesen
05 May 2016
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DNV GL © 2016
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SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
Japan – before and after Fukushima…
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Drivers for floating wind in Japan
 High electricity prices – attractive feed-in tariff
 Generation & transmission capacity challenges
 Very strong maritime tradition
Goals for wind power installed capacity (Japanese Wind Power Association, 2014)
Water depths between 100 – 500 meters, within 50 km
from shore is indicated by the yellow areas (DNV GL)
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Japan is developing floating wind power
Ongoing floating wind
projects in Japan
Source: METI/Maine Consulting
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Cost reduction potential - Three scenarios used as a basis for the
study
Base case
2020 scenario
2030 scenario
First-of-a-kind (FOAK)
First-of-a-kind (FOAK)
Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK)
FID 2015
FID 2020
FID 2030
600 MW
Same geographical location and
size as the base case
Same geographical location and
size as the FOAK case
Based on current technology and
market conditions
No large scale floating wind
installed, draws on cost reduction
in the time from 2015 to 2020
Cumulative installed floating wind
capacity globally 20 GW (indicates
expected learning effect)
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DNV GL © 2016
05 May 2016
Cost reduction potential – 31 % reduction to 2020
Increased rated power
8,7 %
Shared anchor points
4,9 %
Lifetime Extension
3,1 %
Optimized major replacement
3,0 %
Enhanced control systems for WTG
2,2 %
Improved drive train concept for the WTG
2,2 %
Optimised blade aerodynamics design
1,9 %
Remote insp./presence and maint. and improved cond. monitoring
1,8 %
Nacelle mounted LiDAR
1,0 %
0,8 %
Increased competition
Co-locating Substation on extended wind turbine platform
0,6 %
Blade mass reduction e.g. other materials
0,6 %
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Downwind turbines and two-bladed systems
0,3 %
Optimising options for anchoring with given site conditions
0,2 %
Optimised installation method
0,2 %
DNV GL © 2016
18 %
20 %
-3 %
-18 %
31 %
0,1 %
0,0 %
05 May 2016
LCOE
0,3 %
Optimize support structure for floating substation
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YIELD
0,4 %
Overplanting of the wind farm
Appropriate rating of cables and transformers
DECEX
• The cost reduction
opportunities will contribute to
an overall cost reduction of
31% for the base case
1,5 %
Improved wake effect model
OPEX
• 20 opportunities are belived to
contribute to cost reduction
until FID 2020
2,0 %
Optimize support structure design
CAPEX
2,0 %
4,0 %
6,0 %
8,0 %
10,0 %
Cost reduction potential – additional 24% reduction to 2030
 FID 2030
– 9% Learning effect, based on previous reports and past experience
– Estimated future market growth
– Supply of WTG and electric infrastructure (Offshore Wind) -> 30 GW to 100 GW between
2020 and 2030
– Supply of substructure and installation (Floating wind) -> ~1 GW to 20 GW between
2020 and 2030
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Floating wind scenarios, as part of offshore cumulative capacity, Source: DNV GL
DNV GL © 2016
05 May 2016
Cost reduction potential - 55% reduction in LCOE towards 2030
LCOE reduction 2015 – 2030
TECHNOLOGY
IMPROVEMENTS
LCOE, cost index in %
100 %
MARKET GROWTH
55 %
2015
2020
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2025
2030
DNV GL vision 2050
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Magnus Ebbesen
[email protected]
+47 41630570
www.dnvgl.com
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
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Floating wind turbines – the three technology types
SPAR
SemiSubmersible
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TLP
Different cost driver for the different concepts
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