Can the Euro-crisis Poison the Well of European Demoi-cracy? Vihar Georgiev Paper prepared for the 24th IPSA World Congress of Political Science, Poznań (Poland), 2328 July 2016 Work in progress. Please do not quote without the author’s permission. Contact details: Vihar Georgiev European Studies Department, Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”. Address: 125, Tsarigradsko Chausee, bl. IV, fl. 4, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria. E-mail: [email protected] 1 Can the Euro-crisis Poison the Well of European Demoi-cracy? Vihar Georgiev Abstract In the early 2000s the European Union was celebrated as the desired model for the impending new world order. Today, the mantra that the European Union is an area of solidarity and prosperity has waned. The European integration project is not so attractive anymore and public trust in the institutions of the Union is at a record low. Going beyond the standard concept of input and output legitimacy, this paper uses the analytical framework of the vertical dimension of demoi-cracy developed by Cheneval, Lavenex & Schimmelfennig 2015, to study the impact of the Euro-crisis on the perceived democratic deficit of the European Union, and European identity. The paper argues that the institutional praxis of “saving the Eurozone” has created deep, structural setbacks for the enhancement of the notion of solidarity among European citizens and therefore demoi-cratic European identity-building. The most problematic institutional vectors in solving the Euro-crisis appear to be those of the European Central Bank, the European Council, the Council of the European Union and, to some extent, the European Commission. The paper outlines a number of methodological and empirical questions for further investigation. Keywords: European identity, legitimacy, solidarity, Eurozone, institutional balance, democratic deficit 2 Introduction The European Union is currently engulfed in a poly-crisis, encompassing diverse issues from the debt crisis in the Eurozone periphery, a surge of irregular migration, and the potential exit of one of its largest Member States – the United Kingdom. This paper attempts to shed more light on the first of those crises – the Euro-crisis, which followed the sub-prime financial crisis in the United States. The first section of this paper provides an overview of the interdependent aspects of the democratic deficit of the European Union, its institutions and policies, the role of legitimacy of both EU institutions and policies as a related qualitative phenomenon, and the resulting (impossible) formation of European identity. The second section presents the demoi-cracy model as a relevant toolbox for assessment of institutional and policy developments in the European Union, and develops the assessment framework, using the concepts of institutional vectors, policy success and failure. The third section applies the assessment framework to the institutional vectors of five EU institutions during the Euro-crisis: the European Council, the Council of the European Union, the European Parliament, the European Commission, and the European Central Bank, evaluating their institutional vectors in terms of input and throughput legitimacy. The assessment of output legitimacy is presented as an aggregate of the institutional vectors of all five institutions. The Conclusion presents a summary of the main findings, and outlines various methodological and empirical questions for further investigation. 1. Setting the stage: the nexus of democratic deficit, legitimacy and identity Two main issues continue to invigorate the academic debate on the institutional mechanism of the European Union: what are the drivers and what is the impact of the European integration process. A corner stone of the debate remains the notion of democratic deficit of the European Union, its institutions and policies. Two other phenomena are problematized based on this notion: the role of legitimacy of both EU institutions and policies, and the resulting (impossible) formation of European identity. These three phenomena are treated as an interdependent community without further discussion of the direction of causality (for a detailed review of the different schools of thought see Weiler, Haltern & Mayer 1995, Cederman 2001, Herrmann & Brewer 2004, Eriksen2009, Olsen 2010, Beetham & Lord 2014, Piattone 2015). 3 1.1. The democratic deficit – a known unknown The standard version of the notion of democratic deficit is linked to the gradual transfer of more powers from the Member States to the integration community. The volume, complexity and timing of the Community decisional process makes national parliamentary control, especially in large Member States, more an illusion than a reality. The power of national parliaments to affect outcomes in the Council of Ministers is further reduced. The European Parliament does not offer an effective substitution. On this reading, Union governance results in a net empowerment of the executive branch of the States (Weiler, Haltern & Meyer 1995: 6–10). EU democratic deficit accentuates the lack of an effective majoritarian institution participating in the decision-making process. This conceptual misfit therefore requires a transition from the traditional democratic deficit critique to a new theoretical conception of democracy in the European Union, hinting on the possible use of compound democracy as a reference model (Coultrap 1999, Fabbrini 2007, Georgiev 2013). Some authors are even more assertive of the breadth and depth of this phenomenon. Etzioni 2007 explores the notion of community deficit, claiming that the level and scope of EU’s integration activities far exceed the degree of community that it sustains. Majone 1998, on the other hand, notes that the term “democratic deficit” is much more meaningful if we consider the legitimacy problems of non-majoritarian institutions with limited (implying conferred) competences, such as the European Union. Follesdal 2014 notes that discussions about the democratic deficit often target the wrong problems, and that this is either because the alleged problems are misinterpreted, or because they are in fact not problems at all. Nevertheless he agrees that the EU is insufficiently democratically accountable. Majone 2010 claims that the origin of the democratic deficit is the failure to convert a majority of voters to the cause of political integration. This failure forced integrationist elites to sacrifice democracy on the altar of deeper integration in the hope of ‘making Europe without Europeans’. In connection with this hypothesis, Bartl 2015 distinguishes two levels of the expression of the democratic deficit - narrowing the range of topics open to democratic debate (horizontal substantive democratic deficit) and de-politicisation of EU goals, underpinned by a massive accumulation of allegedly apolitical expert knowledge (vertical substantive democratic deficit). Not everyone agrees with the notion of structural and operational democratic deficit. Moravcsik 2002 has delivered a powerful criticism of the concept of democratic deficit, claiming that the division of labour in the European Union gives observers the impression that the EU is undemocratic, 4 whereas it is simply specializing in those functions of modern democratic governance that tend to involve less direct political participation. According to Menendez 2009 there are six main sources of democratic legitimacy of the EU, namely (1) the national ‘enabling’ constitutional clauses on the basis of which nation states became Member States of the Union; (2) the secondment of national constitutions as the collective ‘deep’ constitution of the EU; (3) the institutional actors and decisionmaking set up characteristic of the two standard law-making processes of the Union; (4) the comitology procedures to draft regulations and statutory instruments; (5) the expansion of the breadth and scope of the right to equality resulting from the review of the European constitutionality of national laws by reference to Community fundamental rights and economic freedoms; and (6) last but not least, the procedural subjective rights through which citizens influence the process of application and adjudication of Community norms. Looking at recent empirical research, democratic deficit does appear to be the main de-legitimizing frame of thought for European citizens. Van Ingelgom 2015 reports that in 24 focus groups in Belgium, France and the United Kingdom, the EU was depicted as opaque, remote, inefficient, ill adapted and paralysed by national egos, eroded by corruption and obsessed with insignificant regulation. The distance between European institutions and citizens is also widely condemned. To summarize, the democratic deficit reveals itself as a field of contention of the transfer of more powers from Member States to the European Union. The transfer itself is considered problematic since there are no procedural and/or substantive instruments for interest representation and intermediation akin to the parliamentary democracy at national level. Indeed, the EU’s multi-level decision-making mechanism does not provide an equal venue for effective interest representation since national interest groups depend on variable resources, as well as the domestic national institutional contexts, to successfully Europeanize their lobbying strategies (Klüver 2010). The result is unequal representation of interests at the supranational level due to the varying access of interest groups to policy-makers and their influence on EU policymaking, leading to the danger that better organized and resourced interest groups might dominate the EU policy arena (Eising 2008, Greenwood 2011, Chalmers 2013). 1.2. Legitimacy of the European Union and its institutions: linking the theoretical bridges Legitimacy and legitimation are usually problematized in the discussion about the democratic deficit of the European Union, its institutions and policies (Majone 1998, Føllesdal 2006, Etzioni 2007, Beetham & Lord 2014, Piattone 2015). Schmidt 2013 and Piattone 2015 provide a detailed review of 5 recent studies of the problem of legitimacy and legitimation of the European Union. The different perspectives have actually little in common, outside of the division of input and output legitimacy as proposed by Scharpf 1970 and further developed in Scharpf 1999 and Scharpf 2009. A review of recent literature on legitimacy as a psychological, social, organizational, and political phenomenon (Hurd 1999, Stryker 2000, Tyler 2006, Deephouse & Suchman 2008, Rothstein 2009, Gaus 2011) provides some clarity on the common threads that link different theoretical perspectives. First, legitimacy is understood above all as a psychological property of an authority, institution, social arrangement or policy that leads those connected to it to believe that it is appropriate, proper, and just (Hurd 1999, Tyler 2006). Second, legitimacy is socially constructed and emerges only in relation to rules, norms, values and cognitive frameworks in a larger social system (Deephouse & Suchman 2008:54). The sources of legitimacy are actually the audiences who observe the respective subjects and make legitimacy assessments (ibid). (De)legitimation is construed as the process by which legitimacy of a subject changes over time (Deephouse & Suchman 2008:57). However, Hurd 1999 considers that the operative process in legitimation is the internalization by the actor of an external standard when the actor’s sense of its own interests is partly constituted by a force outside itself, existing at the intersubjective level. Turning the attention to the division of input and output legitimacy as proposed by Fritz Scharpf, Rothstein 2009 notes that that political legitimacy is more dependent on the output side of the political system than on the input side. Scharpf 2013 disagrees and claims that specifically in the case of the Euro-crisis, the legitimacy of a technocratic-authoritarian regime that depends exclusively on output-oriented promises, and whose exercise of governing powers interferes massively and visibly with the interests and life chances of millions of citizens, must be considered extremely fragile. Gaus 2011 correctly points out that the distinction between input- and output-oriented legitimacy has not been established by substantive and comprehensive empirical analysis. In addition to input and output legitimacy, Wimmel 2009 and Schmidt 2013 introduce the notion of throughput legitimacy that should be judged in terms of the efficacy, accountability and transparency of the EU’s governance processes along with their inclusiveness and openness to consultation with the people. There is significant psychological research supporting the claim that those authorities that exercise their authority openly and inclusively are more likely to be viewed as legitimate and to have their decisions accepted (Tyler 2006:380). This perspective is particularly important for the qualitative assessment of the institutional dynamics of the Euro-crisis presented in this paper. 6 Gaus 2011 proposes four potential objects of analysis in relation to legitimacy: the expression of individuals’ beliefs on legitimacy, legitimation acts and processes, society’s normative orders (including taking-for-granted-ness as described by Stryker 2000 and Deephouse & Suchman 2008), and the historical transformation of those normative orders. Based on the presented multidisciplinary insights, it can be concluded that legitimacy processes not only help explain institutionalization and stability, but also help explain deinstitutionalization and change in institutions and institutional fields (Stryker 2000:180). Therefore, for the purposes of this paper, legitimacy is construed as immediate and tacit agreement, ensuring doxic submission to the established order (Bourdieu, Wacquant & Farage 1994:14-16). 1.3. Integration and identity – tying the knot The democratic deficit of the European Union and its institutions is often explained by the lack of distinctive and consistent European identity. An essential condition for the existence of a stable political community is the creation of a collective “people”, supported by the relevant myths and in a position to establish and exercise control over the political power (Canovan 2005: 138). On the other hand, the formation of states (and later nations) was contingent on the ideational construction of “the interests of the country”, including the requirement of territorial defense (Bourdieu, Wacquant & Farage 1994) and the intensification of the political economy (Johnson & Earle 2000). However, given the specificity of the integration process the potential for the development of a European demos has been consistently challenged from various perspectives in social science (Weiler, Haltern & Mayer 1995, Grimm 1995, Piattone 2015). The no-demos thesis focuses on the lack of a transnational political relationship between individuals and is related mainly to the legitimacy of the EU's decision-making processes (Jolly 2005). Typically a demos is considered as both a cultural and political phenomenon. Thomassen and Schmitt 2004 observe that the requirement for shared common identity in ethno-cultural sense to precede the constitution of a political community of citizens is not supported by historical data, since in many European countries the formation of the state preceded the development of a nation. This observation is very important for the research framework of this paper since it allows us to consider the construction of European identity as a result (outcome) of the integration process. European identity can be construed as the result of an open-ended process that gives space to actors pursuing their specific political (and cultural) projects (Checkel & Katzenstein 2009:3). Another important 7 insight is that identity is both multidimensional and inclusive (typically, persons have 5-10 stable identities in their psychological repertoire – Ashmore et al 2004). Cederman 2001 considers that there are at least four possible trajectories for studying identity at the supranational level – ethno-nationalism, pan-nationalism, bounded integration and post-nationalism, depending on the logic of identity formation (essentialism or constructivism), and the viability of identity formation beyond the nation state (retention or supersession of national identity). He emphasizes the utility of bounded integration given the relative stability and inertia of national identities, locked in their “power containers”. However, it remains to be seen whether ethnonationalism could also become a viable trajectory. Follesdal 2014 rightly underscores that the details of the requisite European identity remain contested. In terms of values orientation as a tool to support identity building, Fuchs & Klingemann 2002 note that there is little difference between Member States in the political values and behaviours that are essential to a democracy. The authors therefore reflect that there is considerable potential for Europeans in Western, Central, and Eastern Europe to consider each other as democrats, and to integrate this understanding in their collective identity. Jollly 2005 considers that initiatives based on common values can support the creation of a civic, political European identity. Lehning 2001 proposes the normative concept of shared liberal citizenship identity as a model for building a true European identity. European identity is intertwined with the issue of European solidarity. According to the generic view, collective identity signals that one is not alone but can count on the social support and solidarity of other in-group members so that, as part of a group, one is a much more efficacious social agent (Simon & Klandermans 2001). One way to explore this nexus is through the distinction, proposed by Castells 2011, between resistance and project identities. In this way the European identity may be understood as a project identity, i.e. as a transformative identity that reshapes the social order. Wine 2011 suggests that the sense of shared predicament before common problems may be a promising way to conceptualise the collective bond necessary for political community. Indeed, as Walkenhorst 2009 notes, the notion of European identity often reflects the idea of a non-hierarchical social framework which merges the political aim of an ‘ever closer union’ with that of a ‘people’s Europe’. However, many authors believe that the European identity is or should be developed along the model of resistance identities – using cultural materials inherited by common history. 8 Kohli 2000 delivers an in-depth sociological review of the concept of European identity and claims that its further development depends on finding a viable social contract to the new European level. This conclusion is complemented by the research of Easterly, Ritzen & Woolcock 2006 who find that social cohesion is the bedrock for better institutions and economic growth, provided that a common identity exists. Where such a common identity is lacking, opportunistic politicians can and do exploit ethnic differences to build up a power base. It only takes one such opportunistic politician to exacerbate division, because once an ethnic group is politically mobilized along ethnic lines, other groups will. In addition, Norris 2011 finds that nationalism has remained strong and relatively stable in the European Union, even in Member states in Western Europe that are long-standing Member States. This argument, linking identity, social cohesion and opportunistic division based on ethnicity, will be used later in the research framework of the paper. Risse 2014 however notes that the gradual Europeanization of identities and public spheres is leading to increased politicization of debates about the EU. Therefore if lively public spheres are constitutive parts of a democratic polity, politicization would almost inevitably strengthen European democracy and the emerging demos. On the other hand Risse 2014 rightly points out that politicization can lead to a transnational community of communication, but it can also bring about de-Europeanization of public spheres and their re-nationalization. In conclusion, the notion of European identity can be considered as a multidimensional construct that is more the outcome of, rather than a precondition for, legitimacy of the European integration process. While national identities remain stable “power containers” and there is no European demos, elements or symptoms of common identity are already visible. This identity is not exclusionary or complementary, but it may provide a venue for conflict resolution and interest intermediation on the supranational level. The nexus of the three phenomena – the implied democratic deficit, the European identity, and legitimacy of the Union and its institutions develops itself on the broad canvass of the presumed European public sphere(s) and the emerging elements of European identity. 2. The demoi-cracy model: an ample framework for analysing the impact of EU policymaking on identity This section aims to present the elements of the demoi-cracy model that will be used in the qualitative assessment framework in the following sections. 9 2.1. Demoi-cracy as a model for studying the European integration process In a series of publications (Nicolaïdis 2003, 2004а, 2004b, 2006, 2012, 2013), Calypso Nicolaïdis has outlined a new approach for studying the nexus of European integration, identity and legitimacy that she calls demoi-cracy. The model rests on the premise that if the EU is indeed a new kind of democracy-in-the-making, its democratic character cannot be recognized and developed based on the conventional paradigm of statehood (Nicolaïdis 2004a). Demoi-cracy is understood as a distinct alternative to the national organizing principle of the political community. Philosophically, demoicracy is based on the recognition and appreciation of the limits imposed by the Other (other demoi) in the integration process. At the same time demoi-cracy allows the building of connections with the Other(s) beyond and above the limits of national borders. The qualitatively new element introduced by demoi-cratic theory is the institutionalization of the ethos of acknowledging and accepting the Other(s) through the supranational legal order. In this political and legal order decisions are taken in, but not by Brussels (Nicolaïdis 2006). Demoi-cracy explores legitimacy beyond the typical distinction of “input” and “output” perspectives. The model proposes that any assessment of the EU’s democratic order must be based on the balance between, and interaction of, the political rights of individuals and those of the democratically constituted demoi (Cheneval and Schimmelfennig 2013). Demoi-cracy allows for introducing novel discursive forms of political debate and decision-making, taking into account the transformation of the networked societies of EU Member States (Ansell 2000). Pettit 2010 and Bellamy & Castiglione 2013 further develop the elements of the demoi-cratic model, proposing two criteria for the successful construction of a demoi-cratic order. The first criterion explores whether the citizens of each member state can continue to be part of a representative democracy based on a shared conception of the public interest. This requirement is quite important given the disparity of democracy and rule of law ratings among EU Member States. Second, an association of demoi must be under the equal control of the component democratic polities, which categorically excludes domination of some Member States over others. Based on Piattoni 2015 three potential foundations for the legitimacy of a demoi-cratic community can be outlined – lack of domination, tolerance and justice. These three foundations are the key to understanding the model of demoi-cracy as a very useful theoretical instrument for the study of European integration. 10 Demoi-cracy as lack of domination Bohman 2007 proposes a working definition for democracy, which in fact is totally compliant with the value orientation of the demoi-cratic model – a set of institutions by which individuals are empowered as free and equal citizens to form and change the terms of their common life together, including democracy itself. In this way democracy (and indeed demoi-cracy) is primarily an ideal of self-determination, it is a set of reflexive procedures. However, the lack of explicit domination is not sufficient. One of the most frequent attempts to dominate the policy discourse in the European Union has been the narrative of the “objective market forces”. Thus the market economy is used as an argumentative strategy to justify policies linked to the so-called neoliberal consensus (McNamara 2006, Schulten and Müller 2013). In addition, the impact of the integration policies does not correspond with the territory of the integration community itself. These considerations require the establishment of a second foundation of demoicracy – tolerance. Demoi-cracy as tolerance The European Union is based on what Weiler 2001 calls constitutional tolerance, where national constitutions and constitutional jurisdictions cohabitate without needing a supranational constitution. According to Nicolaïdis 2004а, the European demoi-cracy is founded on the mutual recognition, confrontation and ever more demanding sharing of identities -- not on their merger. The European demoi-cracy therefore requires informed curiosity about the political lives of our neighbours and mechanisms for our voices to be heard in each other’s forums. However, as Nicolaïdis 2013 points out, this value field of tolerance experiences many tensions. The author suggests one possible way of achieving a balance is to exploit the pluralist philosophy of EU constitutional law to address the tensions of a multiplicity of competing legal orders with overlapping supremacy claims. In support of this claim, Maduro 2010 makes a distinction between constitutionalism (where individual interests are directly aggregated and deliberation is based on the promotion of universal rules guaranteed, ex-ante, by their generality and abstraction and, ex-post, by nondiscrimination) and intergovernmentalism (where interests are aggregated through the State and deliberation does not aim at universal rules based on the individual status of citizens but reflects the bargaining power of States and generates accommodating agreements between their perceived conflicting interests). 11 Therefore, as Weiler et al 1995 suggest, from this perspective the EU Treaties should be viewed not as a classical intergovernmental agreement (a Union of states), but as a "social contract" among the nationals of those states that they will (in the areas covered by the Treaty) regard themselves as associating as citizens in this civic society. To some, this notion of civic tolerance goes well beyond the actual character of the integration process which could be better construed as ‘statehood without government’ and a new form of ‘governmentality’ (Shore 2006). However, tolerance is not an empty gesture – it requires transparency, reliability and trust among partners (Piattoni 2015). This critical field will be examined below in relation to the dimensions of demoi-cracy. Demoi-cracy as justice Forst 2012 recognizes three approaches to ensuring justice in international cooperation. The etatist approach is based on the organization of polities into states who participate as representatives of their citizens in international relations. The globalist approach is linked to the introduction of universal human rights after XVII century. However, in the globalist approach justice is mediated by the sanction of states, and states may effectively limit the implementation of international law on their territories. In the third, transnational approach, international governmental and nongovernmental organizations participate on their own in the process of international legal regulation, based on the relevant international agreements. This approach obviously is most evident in the European Union due to the prerogatives of its supranational institutions. Demoi-cracy, understood as justice, should establish real political and legal autonomy of the individual in and towards the states, a new value field supported by the instruments of the rule of law. In the European Union the construction of this value field depends on many independent actors – the citizens, their organizations, the administrative and judicial institutions of the Member States. However, this mechanism for delivering justice on the supranational level still appears underdeveloped and leads to hidden dismissal of individual rights, frustrates the European citizens, and therefore contributes to the democratic deficit (Conant 2002:6). 2.2. Democracy as structure – the vertical and the horizontal dimensions Cheneval and Schimmelfennig 2013 suggest that any assessment of the EU’s democratic order must be based on the balance between, and interaction of, the political rights of individuals and those of the democratically constituted statespeoples. This two-dimensional model is further developed systematically in Cheneval et al. 2015. The two dimensions are differentiated by the instruments 12 used in the integration process – a vertical dimension, which represents the supranational, multilevel regulation, and horizontal dimension, which represents the co-ordination and approximation of national policies and legislative frameworks. In this analytical framework, the vertical dimension practically overlaps with the notion of Type I governance, and the horizontal dimension – with Type II governance, as suggested by Hooghe & Marks 2001. A summary of the two dimensions based on the frameworks proposed by Cheneval et al. 2015 and Hooghe & Marks 2001 is presented on Table 1. Vertical dimension According to Cheneval et al. 2015, the vertical dimension of demoi-cracy is about the principles of making and implementing common legislation. In a multi-level perspective, it refers to the competences and interactions of legislative, executive and judicial organs situated at the supranational as well as the national (and, potentially, subnational) levels. The framework is systemwide; the functions are bundled; and the levels of government are multiple but limited in number (Hooghe & Marks 2001). The defining principle of the vertical dimension is ‘equal legislative rights of citizens and demoi at the supranational level (Cheneval 2011: 144– 8). Both statespeoples and citizens need to be represented at the supranational level and participate in law-making on an equal footing (Cheneval et al. 2015). Put differently, any demoi-cratic agreement must fulfil two sets of conditions. First, an international agreement requires ’fair dealing’ among states in their relations with one another as the representatives of their peoples. Second, states must ensure the general acceptability of the agreement to their respective peoples and be able to justify their international commitments, including any provisions for side payments, as being a reasonable way of advancing their joint and several common interests (Bellamy & Weale 2015). This qualitative requirement should not be underestimated, given the propensity to focus on the intergovernmental perspective in supranational governance. The vertical dimension of the demoi-cracy model will be used as the principal lens for the study of the Euro-crisis in the following sections. Horizontal dimension The horizontal dimension of demoi-cracy describes the horizontal, decentralized cooperation policy interaction of member state institutions, in which national rules are co-ordinated and approximated. 13 Examples of instruments that promote horizontal demoi-cracy include horizontal non-discrimination, the Open Method of Co-ordination and mutual recognition (Cheneval et al. 2015). At the horizontal level multiple, independent jurisdictions fulfil distinct functions. This leads to a governance system where each European citizen is served not by ‘the’ government, but by a variety of different public service industries (Hooghe & Marks 2001). Table 1. Vertical and horizontal dimensions of the demoicracy model1 Vertical dimension Instruments Principles Transfer of powers Interaction Key players Objectives Supranational legislation Harmonized common policies Equal representation and legislative rights of citizens and statespeoples Common political values From the demoi to the supranational level Across national and supranational levels Legislators, representative actors, judiciary Output-oriented Horizontal dimension Coordination of national policies Mutual recognition Non-discrimination Horizontal, transnational transfers (if required) Overlapping powers Across Member States Regulators, executive actors, local government Process-oriented: coordination of national policies 2.3. Connecting the dots: the vertical dimension of demoi-cracy, institutional vectors, legitimacy and identity in the Euro crisis Based on the review in the previous sections, the following assumptions are made in order to outline the analytical framework of this paper: The democratic deficit reveals itself as a field of contention of the transfer of more powers from Member States to the European Union. There are no procedural and/or substantive instruments for interest representation and intermediation similar to the parliamentary democracy at national level; 1 Adapted from Cheneval et al 2015 and Hooghe & Marks 2001. 14 Legitimacy and legitimation processes not only help explain institutionalization and stability, but also deinstitutionalization and change in institutions and institutional fields; Throughput and output legitimacy significantly impact the perception of democratic deficit of the European Union and its institutions; The notion of European identity can be considered as a multidimensional construct that is more the outcome of, rather than a precondition for, the legitimacy of the European integration process; A comprehensive assessment of the EU’s democratic order and its transformation should be based on the balance between, and interaction of, the political rights of European citizens and of the democratically constituted European demoi. But how can actual policy interventions in a particular policy domain be assessed within the proposed qualitative analytical framework of demoi-cracy? Two additional concepts are proposed to operationalize the analytical framework. First, the notion of institutional vectors is used, borrowed from sociological and organizational research frameworks. In this sense, institutional vectors can be understood as the actual expression of an institution’s power and direction of policy preferences2. Institutional vectors situate and orient, but do not determine policy or policy agency (Orihuela 2013). While conceptually linked to path dependency as originally proposed by Pierson 2000, institutional vectors allow taking into account the role of on-the-path and off-the-path strategic issues, as well as issues that conform to or deviate from the policy context (Koch 2011, Seo & Creed 2002). Second, in order to operationalize input, throughput and output of the institutional vectors of EU institutions during the Euro-crisis, a framework for assessing policy (and its perceived success or failure) is needed. McConnell 2010 has developed a comprehensive assessment framework designed to capture the bundles of outcomes or impacts that indicate how successful or unsuccessful a policy has been. In this framework, there are three main analytical categories – policy as politics (which mainly connects to the notion of input legitimacy), policy as process (which can be attributed to the field of throughput legitimacy), and policy as programs (which relates to the field of output legitimacy). In this way a comprehensive and methodologically sound assessment framework can be 2 For the importance of the distinction between power and influence in institutional analysis see Golub 1996. 15 developed as proposed on Table 2. The framework is intended to study policies mainly developed across the vertical dimension of the demoi-cracy model. In this framework, a qualitative assessment is made across a spectrum of Success, Resilient Success, Conflicted Success, Precarious Success, and Failure, which relate to Strong positive, Positive, Mixed or neutral, Negative and Strong negative impact on legitimacy. McConnell 2010 outlines three cases where there may be particular tensions across the three types of legitimacy. First, throughput legitimacy is no guarantee of output legitimacy. Policymaking without sufficient checks and balances is prone to producing flawed policies because goals and/or instruments have not been refined in order to produce workable policies through incremental bargaining. Second, the strive for input legitimacy sometimes necessitates policy output that leave much to be desired in terms of tackling the actual policy problems. Third, output legitimacy does not always result in political success, i.e. it may not lead to (subsequent) input legitimacy. 16 Table 2. Policy legitimacy assessment framework3 Success Strong positive impact Resilient Success Positive impact Conflicted Success Mixed or neutral impact Input legitimacy Throughput legitimacy Output legitimacy Enhancing electoral prospects or reputation of Member States’ governments and leaders. Controlling policy agenda and easing the business of governing. Sustaining the broad values and direction of EU governance. Opposition to political benefits for Member States and target groups is virtually non-existent. Favourable to electoral prospects and reputation enhancement, with only minor setbacks. Despite some difficulties in agenda management, Member States’ capacity to govern is unperturbed. Some refinements needed but broad trajectory unimpeded. Opposition to political benefits for Member States and target groups is stronger than anticipated, but outweighed by support. Preserving EU policy goals and instruments. Conferring legitimacy on the policy and EU institutions. Building a sustainable coalition of policy actors. Symbolizing innovation and influence. Opposition to process is virtually nonexistent. Policy goals and instruments preserved, despite minor refinements. Some challenges to legitimacy but of little or no lasting significance. Coalition intact, despite some signs of disagreement. Not ground breaking in innovation or influence, but still symbolically progressive. Opposition to process is stronger than anticipated, but outweighed by support. Preferred goals and instruments proving controversial and difficult to preserve. Some revisions needed. Difficult and contested issues surrounding policy legitimacy, with some potential to taint the policy in the long-term. Coalition intact, although strong signs of Policy obtains strong support and opposition, working for and against electoral prospects and reputation of Member States’ governments and leaders in fairly equal measure. Policy proving controversial and taking up more political time and resources in its defence than was expected. Implementation in line with objectives. Achievement of desired outcomes. Creating benefit for the target group(s). Meets policy domain criteria. Opposition to policy aims, values, and instruments them is virtually non-existent. Implementation objectives and outcomes broadly achieved. A few shortfalls and possibly some anomalous cases, but intended target group broadly benefits. Opposition to policy aims, values, and instruments is stronger than anticipated, but outweighed by support. Mixed results, with some successes, but accompanied by unexpected and controversial problems. Unwanted results, generating substantial controversy. Partial achievement of goals, but accompanied by failures to achieve, with 3 Adapted from McConell 2010 and Schmidt 2015. 17 Direction of EU governance very broadly in line with goals, but clear signs that the policy has promoted some rethinking, especially behind the scenes. Opposition to political benefits for Member States and target groups is equally balanced with support. Precarious Success Negative impact Failure Strong negative impact Despite small signs of benefit, policy proves an overall electoral and reputational liability. Clear signs that the EU institutions and Member States’ governments are struggling to suppress a politically difficult issue. Entire trajectory of EU governance is being compromised. Opposition to political benefits for EU governance outweighs small levels of support. Damaging to the electoral prospects or reputation of Member States’ governments and leaders, with no redeeming political benefit. Policy failings are so high and persistent on the agenda, that it is damaging Member States’ governments’ capacity to govern. Irrevocably damaging to the broad values and direction of EU governance. Opposition to political benefits for government is virtually universal and/or support is virtually nonexistent. disagreement and some potential for fragmentation. Neither innovative nor outmoded, leading at times to criticisms from both progressives and conservatives. Opposition to process and support are equally balanced. EU institutions’ goals and preferred policy instruments hang in the balance. Serious and potentially fatal damage to policy legitimacy and legitimacy of EU institutions. Coalition of policy actors on the brink of falling apart. Appearance of being out of touch with viable, alternative solutions. Opposition to process outweighs small levels of support. Termination of EU policy goals and instruments. Irrecoverable damage to policy legitimacy. Inability to produce a sustainable coalition. Symbolizing outmoded, insular or bizarre ideas, seemingly oblivious to how other jurisdictions are dealing with similar issues. Opposition to process is virtually universal and/or support is virtually non-existent. possibility of high profile examples. Opposition to policy aims, values, and instruments is equally balanced with support. Implementation beset by chronic failures, proving highly controversial and very difficult to defend. Likely to generate high profile stories of unfairness and suffering. Unwanted media attention, e.g. examples of wastage and possible scandals. Opposition to policy aims, values, and instruments, outweighs small levels of support. Implementation fails to be executed in line with objectives and desired outcomes. Damaging a particular target group. Clear inability to meet the criteria. Opposition to policy aims, values, and instruments is virtually universal, and/or support is virtually non-existent. 18 A caveat must be made at this point: the complexity of supranational governance, even in the case of the vertical dimension of demoi-cracy, requires a nuanced approach to any policy legitimacy assessment exercise. As Schmidt 2015 points out, policy making at the EU level can be characterized as policy without politics, which in turn makes for national politics without policy, as increasing numbers of policies are transferred from the national political arena to the EU However, it may be assumed that from the perspective of perceived legitimacy, the proposed framework is sufficiently detailed in order to capture most of the complexity of the input, throughput and output of EU decision-making. The proposed framework is suitable for evaluating policymaking as a resultant vector of the institutional vectors of EU institutions. However, in the next section a more detailed approach will be used, studying separate institutional vectors of the EU institutions in order to capture their specific contribution to input, throughput and output legitimacy of both the European Union and its economic and monetary policies. This exercise is particularly relevant for the scholars and decisionmakers interested in the functioning of the high-level institutional model of EU governance and its relation to the already discussed notions of democratic deficit and European identity. 3. Examining the impact of the Euro-crisis on the European demoicratic model This section will attempt to implement the proposed qualitative assessment framework developed in the previous two sections in order to evaluate the potential impact of the institutional vectors of decision-making EU institutions on the European demoi-cracy model and consequently – on the notion of European identity. The analysis has many limitations. The institutional vectors of five institutions are taken into account – the European Council, the Council of the European Union, the European Parliament, the European Commission, and the European Central Bank. The role of the European Court of Justice is not considered, given the specificity of its functions and the limited impact it has had on the Economic and Monetary Union so far. The time frame of the analysis is set between January 2010 and June 2016. However, only major policy developments and events that can be defined as crisis response of the five EU institutions during this period are taken into consideration. The analysis is focused on the vertical dimension of demoi-cracy, i.e. within the legal framework of the EU Treaties, and excludes classic forms of intergovernmental cooperation and policy coordination. This limitation is very important as will be shown below. The input of the analysis relies heavily on existing academic 19 research on the institutional responses to the Euro-crisis, and is based on publicly available information obtained through desktop research. A number of venues for expanding and deepening the empirical research based on this framework are proposed in the conclusion remarks. To the extent possible, institutional vectors of the five EU institutions during the Euro-crisis are examined separately in terms of input and throughput legitimacy. The findings for output legitimacy are presented in aggregate for all institutions based on the understanding that it is difficult to discern the perceived legitimacy of policy output. An important consideration on the impact of this specificity of output legitimacy is also offered. 3.1. European Council Interestingly, the role of the European Council is not considered separately in many perspectives on the Euro-crisis. Perhaps due to the understanding that the European Council is a de facto format of the Council of the EU, it’s not typically scrutinized separately. However, as is shown below, the European Council has emerged as the leading policymaking EU institution during the Euro-crisis, encroaching on the powers of both the European Commission and the Council of the European Union. Input legitimacy Typically, the input legitimacy of the European Council is derived indirectly from the demoi via the leaders of the Member States. The dominant legitimating relationship runs between citizens and the national governments, and national governments must generally bear the full burden of political accountability for unwelcome policy (Scharpf 2012). The input legitimacy of the European Council is somewhat problematic. As Guerot 2015 points out, the central role of the European Council in the EU's governance system is a systematic obstacle to finding European solutions due to the invocation of national interests. Schmidt 2015 rightly notes that leaving the bulk of decision-making to the intergovernmentalism of the European Council and EU Summits was actually the least input legitimate of processes. Schmidt 2015 further outlines two specific arguments in that direction – that indirect input can confer legitimacy only on decisions to which leaders agree for their own citizens, not those that they would impose on other memberstates’ citizens, and that the European Council is not a representative arena as such. The second argument is much more substantial. For practical purposes European Council deliberations are a black box, save for the occasional leaks that reach the public (but must always be analysed with 20 caution due to the uncertainty of their factual validity). There is no public account of who is defending what interests and how. The development of the governance framework of the Eurozone has deepened the problematic nature of decision-making process in the European Council. Since 2008, leaders of Member states in the Eurozone started meeting informally in what was called the Euro Summit. The Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union (TSCG), which entered into force on 1 January 2013, formalized the Euro Summit. Notably, during the negotiation of the TSCG, Poland took a firm stance on the participation of Contracting Parties whose currency is not the euro in the Euro Summits (Kreilingeris 2012). In the end a compromise was reached, where Member States outside the Eurozone “shall participate in discussions of Euro Summit meetings concerning competitiveness for the Contracting Parties, the modification of the global architecture of the euro area and the fundamental rules that will apply to it in the future, as well as, when appropriate and at least once a year, in discussions on specific issues of implementation of this Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union” (Article 12, para. 3 TSCG). This institutional development obviously follows the format of the Eurogroup as a decision-making body under Protocol No 14 to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union on The Euro Group. However, this institutional development was made through an intergovernmental treaty, and not through an amendment of the EU Treaties (see for more details Baratta 2012). The United Kingdom and the Czech Republic (both outside the Eurozone) decided not to participate in this treaty. This fact has hardly contributed to the representativeness of this new, quasi-legal format of the European Council. In addition, a repeating pattern during the Euro-crisis has been the use of the so-called “minisummits”, typically organized by one or few Member States prior to a European Council meeting. Wivel 2005 provides a case study with the European Security and Defence Policy in the early 2000s and concludes that mini-summits are excluding small Member States from the decision-making process, and, correspondingly, deny excluded Member states an equal status in the negotiation process. In this way, the European Council has to some degree become a formal institution, used only to rubber-stamp decisions taken elsewhere. Coremans & Adriaensen 2016 note that the Member States’ preference for informal meeting formats suggest firmer control over the implementation of the Euro-crisis policy instead of less. This is particularly evident in the account of the dramatic negotiations on the Greek debt bailout in 2015, provided by Traynor 2015. Faced with internal disagreement and weak negotiation position, 21 Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called a referendum 'whether to accept the outline of the agreement submitted by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund at the Eurogroup of 25 June 2015’. 61.31% voted against the agreement, while 38.69% voted for accepting it, with a total voter turnout of 62.5%. The outcome of the referendum was to be discussed during a Euro Summit meeting on 12 July 2015. Prior to the Euro Summit meeting, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel organized a mini-summit, including the President of France (Francois Hollande), the European Commission President, JeanClaude Juncker, the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, and Christine Lagarde, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. This was a very special mini-summit, including representatives of only two Member States, two heads of EU institution, and the head of an international intergovernmental organization. Traynor 2015 reports that “Merkel’s main aim was to resolve any remaining differences between European leaders and the IMF and ensure they were all on the same page.” However, there were only two leaders of Member States present. There was obviously no equal representation, as the model of European demoi-cracy requires. Then followed a Euro Summit, where “(t)hough there were more than two dozen people in attendance, the meeting essentially revolved around a negotiation between Merkel and Tsipras, mediated by Tusk and Francois Hollande”. This fragment supports the conclusion that as the financial crisis deepened, the bilateral leadership of Germany and France was transformed into a compelling directoire of the EU financial policy (Fabbrini 2013). In this way the input legitimacy of the European Council appears problematic at best. There is actually very limited policy input from, and equal representation of, the demoi of the Member States. Policy is shaped by prevailing policy preferences (and therefore interests) of the “major” EU Member States. Throughput legitimacy De Schoutheete & Micossi 2013 make two very important observations regarding the throughput legitimacy of the European Council during the Euro-crisis. First, it has reverted to intergovernmental decision-making and intergovernmental instruments outside the EU Treaties, when this appeared necessary to overcome the emergency. Second the permanent presidency of the European Council has played a fundamental role in the process as agenda setter and effective coordinator and power broker of Union institutions and the Member States – tasks that in the past belonged to the European Commission. Both observations deserve further investigation. 22 The intergovernmental shift in the work of the European Council is not really news. The functions actually carried out by the European Council, both before and after the Lisbon Treaty, go well beyond the prerogatives listed in Article 15 TEU. The European Council has been gradually transformed into a forum for ongoing top-level policy dialogue that no longer gathers only to make long-term decisions about the future of the Union but plays a decisive role in managing the day-to-day operation of core EU policies (Puetter 2013 and Puetter 2014). The main difference has been the encroachment on the monopoly over legislative initiative by the European Commission, and to some extent – on the decision-making powers of the Council of Ministers (De Schoutheete 2012). In that way the European Council is emerging as the de facto decision maker, especially in the domain of economic governance. This institutional spill-over of decision-making powers to the European Council has been accompanied by the intensification of the work process inside the institution. Starting from 2008, there have been a number of ad-hoc meetings, informal meetings and orientation dialogues during and around the European Council meetings. The increasing operational workload has actually been used to substantiate the introduction of the figure of permanent President of the European Council in the Treaty of Lisbon. During the Euro-crisis, the European Council president has reacted to the increased workload of the institution by scheduling more regular European Council meetings. The President has also organized single-issue or special summit meetings in order to focus discussion on topics that require more attention. Additionally, the agenda of regular European Council meetings is very often subject to last-minute changes due to unforeseen policy developments (Puetter 2013). In fact, the proliferation of additional decision-making powers of the European Council through crisis management has resulted in a shift from ‘economic governance’ in the sense of a rules-based normative system to ‘economic government’ entailing discretionary executive decisions (Curtin 2014). However, the European Council still lacks the unity and continuity of direction required by a true executive (De Schoutheete & Micossi 2013). Looking at the process of decision making in the European Council, and its immediate consequences, it is quite easy to explain this gap. As discussed above, important decisions are often pre-packaged in mini-summits and/or parallel closed meetings with variable political and institutional geometry, without any measure of transparency or accountability. The political salience of decisions taken by the European Council has led to repercussions at the national level, in particular in debtor states, in the shape of governmental crises and political downfalls (Curtin 2014). To make things worse, European Council meetings during the Euro-crisis have been overshadowed by disruptive and antagonizing narratives by both Member States’ leaders, and national media. In addition, the shield of legitimacy intermediation has been 23 pushed aside as citizens are directly confronted with the massive impact of European policies forged by the European Council – and with their manifest lack of input and throughput legitimacy (Scharpf 2012). It is not an exaggeration to conclude that the throughput legitimacy of the European Council has been seriously undermined by its own procedural and deliberative deficiencies, and drift towards ad-hoc, operational decision-making. 3.2. Council of the European Union The Council of the EU has also played an instrumental role in the policymaking process during the Euro-crisis. The Council of the EU has a double hat – both a legislator (together with the European Parliament), and a residual executive (under the European Council and together with the European Commission). Recently the Council has been more and more involved in non-legislative decisionmaking, influenced by the so-called poly-crisis of economic governance and migration (Puetter 2014). Input legitimacy The input and throughput legitimacy of the Council are influenced by its developed institutional structure. A number of administrative and preparatory bodies ensure co-ordination, coherence and continuity in the Council’s work. The Council General Secretariat functions as a bridge between various chairs. The preparatory bodies such as the Committee of Permanent Representatives (COREPER) and the various working groups are involved in the everyday policymaking process and ensure policy input at various levels from different national perspectives (Curtin 2014, Puetter 2014). The rotating Council Presidency provides national governments with the opportunity to influence the political priorities of the EU (Curtin 2014). The Council also benefits from a working relationship with the European Commission and the European Parliament under a series of inter-institutional agreements based on shared values and mutual interests (Cini 2013) and early agreements on particular legislation (Reh et al 2013). Through the requirement for agreement by at least a qualifiedmajority vote for all legislation, all interests that have access to the national ministries in charge will also have access to the European level (Scharpf 2012). In this way the Council of the EU appears relatively more input-legitimate. However, a number of issues remain problematic in this respect. As already discussed above, the European Council has diminished the operational field of actual policymaking in the Council, especially during the Euro-crisis. Due to its short duration (6 months), the policy horizon for the Council Presidency is relatively limited, even taking into account the troika format with the preceding and following Member States. This time limit naturally enhances the 24 position of the permanent President of the European Council (with a mandate of two and a half years) who can barely be considered legitimate from the perspective of the Member States’ demoi. The Eurogroup format of the Council of the EU is often cited as an achievement of the institutional reform of the Treaty of Lisbon that contributes to the efficiency of the European Monetary Union (EMU) (Puetter 2014). However, the allocation of certain decision-making powers to a limited, exclusive configuration of Member States is deeply problematic from the perspective of input legitimacy. Once again, some demoi are denied the right to be heard in the policymaking process. In addition, the European Parliament is also not included in meetings of the Eurogroup, nor informed of its deliberations, thus practically discounting crucial policy input and feedback (Fabbrini 2013). De Schoutheete & Micossi 2013 object that for the Eurozone countries the policy guidance under what is now the European Semester has transformed into strict obligations which tightly constrain national budgetary polices, with strong, early and quasi-automatic sanctions for non-compliance. The authors conclude that therefore to submit the review of such constraints to the European Parliament would politicise the debate, making the system less automatic, and therefore less predictable and less credible. This claim is objectionable given the politically charged and biased process of development of the policy guidance itself, as will be shown in the section on the European Commission below. Throughput legitimacy There is some agreement in the literature on the Eurozone crisis that Germany has predominated the decision-making process in a politically fragmented Council during the Euro-crisis. The result was ‘one size fits one’ governance, in which the response to the fast-burning crisis largely focused on reinforcing the rules-based, numbers-targeting approach of the Stability and Growth Pact, with a discourse centred on the need for ‘stability’ (Schmidt 2015). Schmidt 2015 further points out that the Council has largely followed the ECB’s demands on austerity-oriented policy measures, mainly because Germany and its coalitional allies have largely been able to impose their preferences. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel is often presented as a paragon of consensus-building, thus explaining the extraordinary influence of her government in the Council. However, analysis of Council decision-making shows that policy consensus often emerges endogenously as an unintended byproduct of the coalition building behaviour of negotiators that seek to form blocking minority coalitions (Haege 2013). Formal consensus in the Council sometimes results from a strategy of blame avoidance that conflicts with throughput legitimacy (Novak 2013). What this may mean is that, in fact, Germany (often working together with France) has been able to dominate the decision making process in the Council through potential threats to block certain decisions during the Euro-crisis, as 25 was the case in the fragment on the negotiation of the Greek bailout in 2015, provided by Traynor 2015 and discussed in the previous sub-section. The use of veto power as a mechanism to force Germany’s position is even more evident in the intergovernmental decision-making process devised for the European Stability Mechanism, where Germany has 27% of the shares, and may formally block decision-making. Furthermore, the Council has witnessed a surge of informal inter-institutional negotiation practices that seem to decrease the transparency of the decision-making process and the accountability of Member States’ representatives (Haege & Naurin 2013). This meta-legal approach was very evident in the controversial decision in 2003 to disregard the Commission’s recommendation to subject Germany and France to the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), and has been used to benefit big and Eurosceptic Member States (Baerg & Hallerberg 2016). The Council was also used as a laboratory to forge and test classical intergovernmental approaches to the Euro-crisis where veto power misfired. As Fabbrini 2013 and De Schoutheete & Micossi 2013 point out, with the deepening of the euro crisis, the EU has more and more shifted toward an intergovernmental direction. An interesting proposition that has not been looked into is whether the representatives of Member States preferred to engage in intergovernmental diplomacy since the administrative capacity of Council administration is somewhat inferior compared to the administrations of the European Commission and the European Parliament (Scherpereel & Perez 2015). In addition, governments with a sound budget did not want to pay for the difficulties of indebted countries whose governments expected help for the sake of their own political survival (Fabbrini 2013). This dynamic, if looked carefully into, resembles a zero-sum intergovernmental politics dilemma – it’s either your government or mine, and something has got to give. Not surprisingly, the narrative of political blackmail has been used by both sides in order to substantiate and strengthen their relative negotiation positions. In their political discourse during the Euro-crisis, European politicians have focused on the morality tale, which attributes the crisis to profligate southern Member States that refused to abide by the strictures of the Stability and Growth Pact (Tsoukala 2013). Even the potentially catastrophic EU-wide contagion unleashed by the potential fiscal insolvency of Greece and subsequent financial crisis, could not dislodge the view that national problems of fiscal profligacy and weak competitiveness were the source of the problem (Wren‐Lewis 2013; Matthijs & McNamara 2015). 26 3.3. European Commission The European Commission has been a key institutional player during the Euro-crisis. It has a long history of contested legitimacy (HHH). Its relative position in agenda setting has been somewhat weakened by the institutional activism of the European Council, the repositioning of the European Parliament, and its own inability to build consensus around viable policy options for crisis management. However, the generalization of reverse qualified majority voting in the monitoring and sanctioning procedures of the European semester has resulted in a major empowerment of the Commission, and thus of the effective constraining power of the supranational level of government over the national (Menendez 2013, Fabbrini 2015). Input legitimacy The input legitimacy of the European Commission has been contested from the very beginning of its existence due to the lack of any substantial link to the European demoi. After the Treaty of Lisbon it appeared that the Commission has acquired the attributes of a de facto executive at the expense of the Member States and national stakeholders (Georgiev 2012). Probably due to this, with the deepening of the Euro-crisis, the Commission sought more and more “leadership and decision-making at the highest political level, which has contributed to the strengthening of the position of the European Council” (Leino and Salminen 2012: 864). In this dynamic, the Commission has proven to be a technocratic structure in support of the European Council’s deliberations, rather than the institution with the capacity to set the political agenda of the EU (Fabbrini 2015). On the other hand the European Commission has been positioned as an independent institutional actor that could act as a supervising and sanctioning body in the European Semester (very close to its initial role in the European Communities). Thus the Commission has seen an increase in its technical role as an independent bureaucracy in charge of guaranteeing respect of the EMU rules (Fabbrini 2015). Unfortunately, the Commission has not fully delivered on those expectations, as will be shown in the next sub-section. In order to somewhat mitigate the problem of input legitimacy of the Commission, a new approach to nominating political candidates for Commission President was pushed by the European political parties in 2014. The so-called Spitzenkandidaten did not play a major role in the election campaigns, except in a handful of countries, and thus had a limited impact on voter participation and vote choices (Hobold 2014). 27 Throughput legitimacy In terms of throughput legitimacy, the institutional vector of the European Commission during the Euro-crisis has been particularly problematic. As regards policy formulation and legislative initiative, the European Commission was caught by surprise by the Euro-crisis. A timely and appropriate response to the Euro-crisis would have required a preparedness by the Commission to face the “unknown”, which it apparently lacked (Camisao 2015). The very failure to adequately forecast the crisis and propose adequate mitigation measures may mean that the Commission did not have a well-developed system of consultation and data exchange with stakeholders. In fact, the lack of transparent procedures for collecting input from stakeholders during the drafting of legislative acts is a serious impediment to the throughput legitimacy of the Commission (Georgiev 2013). This failure has further problematized the institutional response during the legislation drafting process for the EMU crisis management legislation in the period 2010-2015. More specifically, the European Commission had not developed a proper impact assessment of the European Semester Six Pack. It relied heavily on the guidance of the European Council and the Task Force on economic governance chaired by its President and established in March 2010. According to the Commission “(a) constructive relationship developed between the Commission and the Task Force. The Commission contributed to the work of the Task Force through the Communications referred to above and through ad hoc contributions”4. This fact is especially problematic, given the composition of the Task Force on economic governance – it consisted of the finance ministers of the Member States, the Presidents of the European Council, the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the Eurogroup. It is quite evident that this was in essence an intergovernmental format for negotiations and decision-making, and not an expert group, or a gathering of diverse stakeholders that would be impacted by the proposed reform. Indeed, individual contributions to the Task Force were made only by the Member States themselves, the ECB, and the Commission. By not engaging with the relevant national stakeholders, the Commission has basically failed to perform a proper consultation process on one of the most far-reaching proposals in European economic governance. 4 Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on the effective enforcement of budgetary surveillance in the euro area (COM/2010/0524 final). 28 In terms of policy implementation, the European Commission’s throughput legitimacy has also been seriously dented. Even prior to the Euro-crisis, it was subject to criticism due to its implied bias towards larger Member States (Germany, France and Italy in particular) in its monitoring function under the Stability and Growth Pact. Baerg & Hallerberg 2016 found that big Member States and states with Eurosceptic populations regularly undermined the “watchdog” function of the Commission. More recently, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker reportedly answered questions regarding the alleged differential treatment of France’s budgetary deficit by the Commission in the following way: “Because it’s France.” This reply prompted the President of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem to conclude that “if the Commission President says that things apply differently for France, then this really damages the credibility of the Commission as guardian of the pact” (Karnitschnig et al 2016). There is also the issue of transparency and accountability of the Commission’s work on the European Semester. Schmidt 2015 quotes an unnamed Commissioner saying that “DG ECFIN works out the numbers on its own, largely in secret, makes its decisions and then informs the Commission, often sending word out to the other members of the Commission on a Monday night for a Wednesday meeting, with little or no explanation of those decisions, no possibility to overturn them, and sometimes making them public even before informing the other Commissioners, thereby potentially putting them in an embarrassing position vis-à-vis their own Member State governments, which might expect to be forewarned”. The lack of a unitary, unbiased and transparent approach for assessment of macroeconomic imbalances under the European Semester may be a particularly serious issue given the actual discretion of the Commission. Scharpf 2013 notes that the regulations on the European Semester5 provide no rules for the Commission’s substantive policy choices. Therefore, unlike the original Stability Pact, the Excessive Imbalance Procedure is not, and cannot be, a rule-based regime. Schmidt 2015 warns that the Commission’s power to vet national budgets before governments submit them to national parliaments not only challenges national governments’ sovereignty, but also undermines one of the main pillars of national parliaments’ representative power—control over national budgets—and thereby principles of representative democracy, in which elected governments are 5 In particular, Regulation (EU) No 1173/2011 on the effective enforcement of budgetary surveillance in the euro area – sanctions regulation; Regulation (EU) No 1174/2011 of 16 November 2011 on enforcement measures to correct excessive macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area; and Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of 16 November 2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances. 29 responsible to those who elected them. In this way the European Semester exposes the European Commission to both input and throughput legitimacy challenges. 3.4. European Parliament The Treaty of Lisbon continued the path of relative parliamentarisation of the integration community, increasing the decision-making powers of the European Parliament vis-à-vis the Council and the Commission (Georgiev 2011). This dynamic has, however, been counter-balanced by the use of a predominantly intergovernmental approach for managing the Euro-crisis, led by the European Council. In addition, economic and financial policies continue to be reserved territories of the Council (in its configuration as ECOFIN, see Fabbrini 2013). Input legitimacy The European Parliament is the only institution of the European Union that can claim direct input legitimacy since its members are directly elected by the European demoi, although some authors believe that true European electoral and party systems need to be developed in order to ensure genuine input legitimacy (Follesdal & Hix 2006; Calossi 2015). Therefore the Parliament’s participation in the decision-making process during the Euro-crisis is of particular importance for the perceived overall legitimacy of the relevant crisis mitigation policies. Indeed, the European Parliament attempted to influence the drafting of the ESM Treaty and the Fiscal Compact Treaty, mainly by using legitimation claims (Fabbrini 2013). The Banking Union can be considered an example where the European Parliament has managed to extract institutional concessions from the Commission and the Member States (Rittberger 2014). Throughput legitimacy The European Parliament has been perhaps the only institution that entered the Euro-crisis with a clear, comprehensive set of own decision-making procedures that ensured participation of various stakeholders in the process, and applied them quite rigorously. However, it reverted to first-reading trialogues with the Council and the Commission for negotiating both the Six Pack and the Two Pack packages of legislation. Curtin 2014 considers that the manner in which the European Parliament has allowed itself to be sucked into the secretive vortex of closed door trialogue negotiations means that the Parliament is not engaging with the EU level executive actors in a manner that challenges their domination or that is truly leading. In addition, in both cases the European Parliament largely voted to give the Commission exclusive power to apply the rules, denying itself the ability to oversee the 30 Commission’s decisions even though it limited Commission discretion by specifying numerical targets for intervention (Schmidt 2015). Kohler 2014 also criticises the throughput legitimacy of the European Parliament, noting that big party groups mainly vote like a singular bloc in the plenary because decisions had already been made in the parliamentary committees. Some authors think that the limited participation of the European Parliament in the response to the Euro-crisis is justified because it would be extremely controversial to separate (in its internal deliberative process) representatives coming from no euro-area and euro-area member states, thus allowing only the latter to have a say on the decisions taken by the Euro Summit and Euro Group (Hefftler and Wessels 2013; Fabbrini 2016). 3.5. European Central Bank Throughout the Euro-crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been forced to take key decisions that have saved the euro but that go beyond its mandate and for which it has no democratic legitimacy, placing it in an impossible position (Schwarzer 2015). A technocratic, practically unknown institution of the European Union was put centre-stage and had to quickly adapt its institutional vector to the new challenges. Adriaensen & Coremans 2016 detect a covert competence creep of the ECB in the EU’s response to the Euro-crisis. Input legitimacy The ECB practically has no direct or indirect input legitimacy. Schmidt 2015 notes that the ECB has generally been seen as legitimated by its output policy performance and, arguably, its throughput processes, with good rules-based output seen as a trade-off for any deficiencies in political input. Still, the ECB, more or less, operates in a political vacuum, while its exclusive commitment to monetary stability further undermines the legitimacy of the EU (Majone 2010). As Scharpf 2013 notes, there are still no serious proposals to subject the exercise of ECB’s potent governing powers to input-oriented democratic accountability. At the same time concentrating too many financial stability responsibilities, including macro-prudential and micro-prudential regulation, in the ECB risks undermining the independence of the central bank where it is likely to be useful -the conventional monetary policy roles (Buiter 2012). The ECB had adopted a range of extraordinary measures that have diluted its mandate, politicized its actions and given them unprecedented salience (Hoegenauer 2016). This politicization of the institutional vector of the ECB is extremely problematic from the perspective of input legitimacy. 31 Throughput legitimacy Eijffinger & Geraats 2006 have developed an index for transparency of central banks, focused on four types of transparency – economic, procedural, policy and operational transparency. In their evaluation, the ECB suffers from the following deficiencies related to throughput legitimacy: it does not provide comprehensive minutes and actual voting records; there is lack of an explicit policy inclination; and it does not discuss past forecast errors. Meanwhile, the ECB has started publishing the minutes from their monetary policy meetings but the attributed voting records are not released because of concerns that they might undermine pro-euro area wide behaviour (Horvath & Katuscakova 2016). The lack of transparency of the ECB decision-making process is especially problematic. Given the implied political independence of the ECB, it is very important to be able to scrutinize its internal policy debates. Most of the important decisions in the ECB are made by its Governing Council. Giavazzi & Wyplosz 2015 claim that within the ECB Governing Council the views of the national governors are invariably shaped by national interests and prejudices. This claim is an eerie reminder of the decision-making process at the European Council, where national leaders meet behind closed doors to shape policy. However, Henning 2015 notes that the Governing Council of the ECB has responsibility for the euro area as a whole and is not hostage a German veto, unlike decisions of the Eurogroup and Euro Summits. This allowed the Governing Council to act more decisively at several junctures during the crisis, for which it won enthusiastic applause among markets and relieved observers. Horvath & Katuscakova 2016 find that mistrust in the ECB increased during the crisis, and more respondents expressed an opinion about the ECB. Their research confirms once more that transparency is one of crucial determinants of trust and therefore, it helps central banks build and maintain reputation and credibility of their policies. Looking at specific policy developments can further enrich the picture of the throughput legitimacy of the ECB and its policies. What is interesting in existing academic accounts is that the authors typically focus on the actual or implied policy output, and not so much on the decision-making process itself. Fabbrini 2013 notes that the ECB actually induced a reduction of the spread between Italian, Portuguese, and Spanish public bonds and German bonds, with the declaration of its president Mario Draghi in London on July 26, 2012 that he was “ready to do whatever it takes” for saving the euro. Looking at this vignette more critically, however, would lead us to doubt that Mr. Draghi actually did something spectacular in this case. The euro is the raison d'être of the ECB, and it 32 is quite normal that the institution would attempt to save it, thus saving itself. However, this could also mean that the ECB was ready to sidestep its own policies and decision-making procedures to do just that. Another episode that is often cited as a policy success of the ECB institutional vector was the introduction of the program of Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) in 2014, which reportedly helped to close the acute phase of the crisis in sovereign debt by the beginning of 2014 (Henning 2015). However, looking at the institutional vector of the ECB through the lens of the most serious debt crisis – Greece’s, paints a very different picture. When faced with the unfolding Greek crisis, the euro area governments and the ECB displayed slowness, division and ineptness (Featherstone 2011). Blyth 2015 rightly observes that the decision by the ECB to freeze Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks on June 26th 2015, which built upon their prior refusal to accept Greek debt for routine liquidity operations four months earlier, stood in complete contradiction to its mandates to maintain smoothly running payments systems and support economic cohesion. It also had the effect of rationing the cash ordinary Greeks had access to until they agreed to more austerity, as the price of staying in the Eurozone. In conclusion, the throughput legitimacy of the ECB during the Euro-crisis appears very problematic mainly due to the opaque decision-making process of its Governing Council. 3.6. Output legitimacy: common threads As stated above, the output legitimacy of the institutional vectors of the reviewed EU institutions will be reviewed here as an aggregate, given the specificity of citizens’ perceptions on policy output. In fact, the policy output of the institutional response of the Euro-crisis is probably perceived by European citizens in combination with the output of national fiscal and economic policies of the Member States. Scharpf 2013 concludes that EMU’s claim to acceptance depends on the output-oriented and uncertain promise that the policies pursued by the ECB and imposed by Council and the Commission will, in the foreseeable future, facilitate the economic recovery of the crisis countries. Jones 2009 believes that output-oriented legitimation will play an important role particularly for the ECB’s institutional success. However, Torres 2013 rightly warns that output legitimacy is not sufficient to sustain EMU, given its substantial throughput legitimacy problems, as was also shown above in this paper. 33 In terms of the impact on national budgets, tight austerity was imposed on the debtor countries while the creditor countries continued to follow policies aimed at balancing the budget. This has led to an asymmetric adjustment process where most of the adjustment has been done by the debtor nations, which have been forced to reduce wages and prices relative to the creditor countries (an “internal devaluation”) without compensating wage and price increases in the creditor countries (“internal revaluations”) (De Grauwe 2013). Scharpf 2013 also notes that the institutional response to the Euro-crisis has been forcing Member States to play a negative-sum game of competitive “internal” or real devaluation when they have to deal with external deficits or with a domestic recession and rising unemployment. In general, the output legitimacy of the institutional response to the Euro-crisis has been explained as a result of the Eurozone’s poor economic performance (Schmidt 2015). To illustrate this, the most drastic case – that of Greece, is particularly relevant. As Featherstone 2011 points out, in 2010, a fringe economy representing just 2.7 per cent of the Eurozone GDP almost wrecked the system. In terms of the impact of the crisis response on the debt sustainability and the real economy, the view from Greece is dismal. Greece was forced to attempt one of the most drastic programmes of fiscal austerity in modern history aimed at reducing its budget deficit by eleven percentage points of GDP within three years (Hall 2012). The outcome of the austerity measures was that unemployment skyrocketed, with youth and long-term unemployment particularly high, and the economy collapsed, leaving the Greek economy contracting severely during this time (Verdun 2015). In its most recent assessment of Greece’s public debt sustainability, the International Monetary Fund clearly states that “serious implementation problems caused a sharp deterioration in sustainability, raising fresh doubts about the realism of policy assumptions, especially from mid–2014”6. In terms of political output, the Greek crisis has shown that the exercise of democracy in an imperfect monetary union that lacks a fiscal union is only possible by resorting to national sovereignty, the prime example so far having been the Greek referendum (Schwarzer 2015). The assessment of output legitimacy of EU institutions can be complemented by relevant assessments of public opinion in the Member States. Hooghe and Marks 2005 outline three preconditions for successful use of the economic approach to public opinion: when economic consequences are perceived with some accuracy, when they are large enough to matter, and when 6 Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis—Updated Estimates and Further Considerations. IMF Country Report No. 16/130, May 2016. 34 the choice a person makes actually affects the outcome. The authors further claim that if these conditions are not present, attitudes may be sensitive to group identities. In support of this claim, Hobolt & Wratil 2015 find that citizens in the Eurozone clearly relied less on identity heuristics when forming their views on the euro as the crisis unfolded. Debomy 2016 notes that the opinion indicators related to the EU legitimacy reached a positive peak in 2007, had a low point somewhere in 2011-2012, and recovered until the autumn of 2015, when the indicators started to decline again. Numbers must be interpreted carefully. Debomy 2016 further underlines that in the euro zone alone, 68% of respondents showed their support for the single currency at the end of 2015 – very close to its pre-crisis level in the spring of 2007 (70%). However, if looked further into, these results also show a large discrepancy between Member States. Hobolt & Wratil 2015 find that the Euro-crisis has not led to reduced support for the euro inside the euro area, however, it has precipitated a sharp decline in support for the single currency outside the euro area. These results also suggest that for citizens in the Eurozone there was a relatively widespread perception that the EU can deliver the most effective solution to the crisis. In one of the most recent public opinion polls7 the results are quite unequivocal. About nine-in-ten Greeks (92%) disapprove of how the EU has dealt with the ongoing economic crisis. Roughly twothirds of the Italians (68%), French (66%) and Spanish (65%) similarly disapprove. (France and Spain are the two nations where the favorability of the EU has recently experienced the largest decline.) Majorities in Sweden (59%) and the UK (55%), including 84% of UKIP supporters, also disapprove of the EU’s job in dealing with economic challenges. The strongest approval of Brussels’ economic efforts is in Poland and Germany (both 47%). The results also show the skepticism of European citizens towards additional transfers of power to the European Union as an instrument for improving economic governance. Only 6% of the public in the UK 8% in Greece favor the transfer of more power to the Union. The strongest backing for an ever closer Europe is only 34%, in France, followed by just 26% in Germany. In most countries a quarter or more of the public prefers to keep the current division of power between the European Union and the Member States. 7 Pew Research Center, June, 2016, “Euroskepticism Beyond Brexit”. 35 3.7. Summarizing the institutional vectors: a broad picture emerges Based on the assessments in the previous sub-sections, a composite picture of the institutional vectors of decision-making EU institutions during the Euro-crisis through the lens of the horizontal vector of the demoi-cracy model emerges. The summarized results are presented on Table 3 below. Table 3. Institutional vectors of selected EU institutions during the Euro-crisis from the perspective of the horizontal dimension of the demoi-cracy model Input legitimacy Throughput legitimacy European Council Council of the EU European Commission = European Parliament = European Central Bank Output legitimacy Legend: - Strongly positive impact - Positive impact = - Mixed or neutral impact - Negative impact - Strongly negative impact The following main observations can be made based on this assessment: The most problematic institutional vectors in “solving” the Euro-crisis appear to be those of the European Central Bank, the European Council, the Council and, to some extent, the European Commission; The only institutional vector that appears to have impacted positively the legitimacy of the European Union and its EMU policies during the Euro-crisis is the European Parliament, mainly due to its throughput legitimacy; During the Euro-crisis, throughput legitimacy of the European Union has been impacted the most by the institutional vectors of the reviewed EU institutions, and this impact is moderately to strongly negative; The perception of output legitimacy is relevant but contributes to internal divisions among Eurozone and non-Eurozone Member States. 36 Going back to the conceptual framework presented in the first three sections of this paper, a few implications emerge: As suggested above, throughput and output legitimacy probably impact to a greater extent the notion of democratic deficit of the European Union and will continue to be decisive for the definition and mitigation of that social construct; The empirically observed elements of European identity are probably negatively impacted by the institutional vectors of the European Council and the ECB in particular, since they have enhanced the perceived opportunistic division based on ethnicity (nationality), particularly in their throughput decision-making process; The value field of tolerance in the demoi-cracy model appears increasingly compromised by the institutional vectors of the five EU institutions during the Euro-crisis, notably by failing to take into account the differences in national varieties of capitalism and political economies of Member States (Hall 2012). Conclusion This paper has outlined a qualitative assessment framework based on the European demoi-cracy model as proposed by Calypso Nicolaidis and further developed by Cheneval, Lavenex & Schimmelfennig 2015. The main objective has been to evaluate the potential impact of the institutional vectors of decision-making EU institutions on the European demoi-cracy model and consequently – on the notion of European identity. Based on a careful definition of the demoi-cracy model itself, the notion of institutional vectors and a comprehensive framework for assessing policy (and its perceived success or failure) adapted from McConnell 2010 were used to operationalize the qualitative assessment framework. The framework was applied consecutively to the institutional vectors of five EU institutions that participated in the decision-making process during the Euro-crisis – namely the European Council, the Council of the European Union, the European Parliament, the European Commission, and the European Central Bank. The main findings are focused around the importance of throughput and output legitimacy of EU institutions and policies in particular. The composite picture that emerges is problematic. It appears that the negative tendencies for the throughput legitimacy of the European Central Bank, the European Council, the Council and the European Commission have probably contributed the most to 37 the overall notion of democratic deficit in the European Union. These tendencies have most likely opened space for opportunistic division based on ethnicity and/or nationality in the European Union, especially between Member States in and outside of the Eurozone. This division has been also impacted by the perceived lack of output legitimacy of EMU policies during the crisis. A number of limitations apply to the findings. First, there is little consensus on legitimation dynamics in the academic literature on the European Union. Some of the assumptions in the methodological framework are derived from empirical research on lower-level social phenomena and may therefore be somewhat compromised or dampened due to emergent supranational effects. However, the limited application of those concepts in International Relations and European Union studies show that the framework is most likely robust. Second, the paper has relied on academic assessments for many of the decision-making episodes and policy outputs during the Euro-crisis due to limitation of space and resources. A broader review of empirical material would result in more conclusive and comprehensive results. Various methodological and empirical questions can be raised based on the findings in this paper. The European Union studies literature can only benefit from a very detailed empirical assessment of the sociological and psychological aspects of legitimation and legitimacy as related to the integration community and its institutions. The interpretation and reinterpretation of Eurobarometer polling results is simply not sufficient in order to fully understand the actual impact of institutional vectors of EU institutions on various social phenomena. While it has not been discussed in detail in the paper, it appears that effective public relations and gathering of diverse policy input from all policy stakeholders are disproportionately important for the perception of throughput legitimacy (Jann& Wegrich 2006). In more practical terms, comprehensive and very detailed accounts of the institutional vectors of EU institutions are needed in order to reap both the qualitative and quantitative benefits of the proposed assessment framework. The role of the European Court of Justice, the International Monetary Fund, and the impact of rapidly changing governments in the Eurozone periphery deserve special attention and may contribute to a more comprehensive account of the Euro-crisis. The literature on the media discourses and narratives during the Euro-crisis can also be complemented by more detailed and comprehensive comparative studies in order to accentuate and grasp the opportunistic division based on ethnicity or nationality. Last, but not least, correlations with the emergent migration crisis in the European Union, and the so-called Brexit (the potential exit of the 38 United Kingdom from the EU), are also very important in order to take into account interdependent EU policy dilemmas and trade-offs. Finally, a caveat must be made. Fabbrini 2015 warns that the EMU has ended up becoming a centralized, technocratic and judicialized policy regime. As Lindseth 2014 has pointed out, the danger today is that numerous distinguished advocates call for the complete subordination of the nationstate to a European political union. Based on the findings in this paper, before deficiencies in the throughput legitimacy of EU institutions are addressed, such an approach would contribute to, rather that solve, the Euro-crisis. 39 References Adriaensen, J., & Coremans, E. (2016). Controlling covert integration in EU politics. EUI Working Paper RSCAS 2016/27 Ansell, C. (2000). 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