CONTACT:MatthewC.MacWilliams
MacWilliamsSandersCommunication,President
UniversityofMassachusettsAmherst,PhD
[email protected];[email protected]
(413)-537-6537
RELEASEDATE:26October2016
AuthoritarianismandtheRiseofPopulistNationalPartiesinEurope:
PreliminaryFindingsfromSurveysofFourEuropeanNations
DatafromfourrecentlycompletedsurveysinGreatBritain,France,Sweden,and
GermanydemonstrateanattitudinallinkbetweenthesupportersofEuropeanpopulist
nationalparties1andAlt-RightTrumpismintheUnitedStates.2Thedispositionthatlinks
thepoliticalbehaviorofthesesupportersonbothsidesoftheAtlanticisauthoritarianism.
Atitscore,authoritarianismisanintolerantaversiontodiversitythatseeksto
maintainsocialorderandnorms.Authoritariansobeyauthority,seekconformity,andmay
actaggressivelytopeopleorgroupswhoareidentifiedasoutsidersortargetedas“the
other.”
Since1992,foursimplechild-rearingquestionshavebeenusedbyresearchersin
theUnitedStatesandelsewheretoestimateindividuals’predispositionto
authoritarianism.Thesequestionsgenerateascalethatisstatisticallypredictiveof
authoritarianpoliticalbehavior,rangingfromanti-democratictoanti-immigrantpolitical
1AllEuropeandatacomesfromfoursurveysadministeredonlinebyYouGovPlc.Surveydatesandsample
sizesarenotedinSectionIV.
2U.S.datacomesfrom(1)anationalonlinesurveyconductedundertheauspicesoftheUniversityof
MassachusettsAmherstand(2)thenational2014CooperativeCongressionalElectoralSurvey(CCES).Survey
dateandsamplesizesarenotedinSectionIV.
1|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
views.Importantly,thechild-rearingvaluesmeasuredbyquestionsonthescaleare
conceptuallydistinctfromandformedbeforetheauthoritarianpoliticalattitudespredicted
bythescaledanswers.
IntheUnitedStates,2015surveyresearchusingthesechild-rearingquestionsfound
thatauthoritarianismwasakeycomponentofDonaldTrump’ssupportduringthe
Republicannominatingcampaign.Infact,authoritarianismandpersonalfearofterrorism
weretheonlytwovariablesestimatedinarobustmodelthatwerestatisticallyand
substantivelypredictiveofearlysupportforDonaldTrump.
InEurope,datafromfourrecentlycompletedsurveysrevealsthatauthoritarianism,
estimatedusingthesamesetofquestions,hasastatisticallyandsubstantivelysignificant3
effectonsupportfortheUnitedKingdomIndependencePartyinGreatBritain,National
FrontinFrance,SwedishDemocratsinSweden,and,usingjusttwochild-rearingquestions,
theNationalDemocraticPartyofGermanyandAlternativeforGermany.Importantly,
authoritarianattitudesnotonlyinfluencesupportforpopulistnationalpartiesinEurope,
butalsopredictsupportforBrexitinGreatBritain.
Thepreliminaryconclusionfromthesesurveysisinescapable:theelectoralriseof
TrumpismandtheAlt-RightintheUnitedStatesandpopulistnationalpartiesinEurope
appeartoshareonecommon,measurabletrait–apredispositionamongsupporters
towardauthoritarianism.
Whilemuchmoreworkneedstobedonetounderstandhowandwhy
authoritarianismisdrivingright-wingpopulisminEuropeandtoanalyzeitssimilarities
anddissimilaritieswithTrumpism,theauthoritarian“worldviewevolution”theorizedby
HetheringtonandWeilerastherootcauseofpartisanpolarizationintheUnitedStates4
3Statisticallysignificantmeanstheobservedeffectofauthoritarianismonsupportforthesepartiesattainsa
p-valueof<.05.Inotherwords,authoritarianismhasagreaterthan95%chanceofaffectingsomeone’s
support.Substantivelysignificantmeansthattheobservedeffectismeaningful.
4HetheringtonandWeiler(2009)“characterizeAmericanpoliticsasundergoingaworldviewevolutionin
whichpoliticsisincreasinglycontestedoverissuesforwhichpreferencesarestructuredby
authoritarianism.”Theworldviewevolutionbeganwiththeadditionofgut-levelissuestothepoliticaldebate
inAmericainthe1960swhichdrovetheexistingwedgebetweenauthoritariansandnonauthoritarians
deeper.ChangingfeelingstowardbothRepublicanandDemocraticparties,fallingvoterturnout,andshifting
voterchoiceinpresidentialandSenatecontestsarethequantifiable,politicalmanifestationsoftheshifttoa
2|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
appearstobeatworkinEurope,fuelingtherecentriseofpopulistnationalpartiesthat
targetimmigrantsas“theother”andareantitheticaltocivilanddemocraticsociety.
SurveyresultsforGreatBritain,France,Sweden,andGermanyarepresentedinthe
nextsection.TheseresultsarefollowedinSectionTwobycomparablefindingsforthe
UnitedStatesthatdetailtheauthoritariancoreofDonaldTrump’ssupport.5SectionThree
isabriefbackgrounderbyDr.ErikTillmanthatdescribeswhatauthoritarianismis,howit
hasbeenestimated,andexistingmeasurementsofauthoritarianisminEuropeproduced
priortothedatareportedhere.Thefinalsectionincludescontactandsurveyinformation.
I.SurveyResultsbyNation
GreatBritain.Almostthirty-sexpercent(35.8%)ofpeople18yearsofageorolderinGreat
Britainarehighlydisposedtoauthoritarianism.Bydefinition,“highauthoritarians”are
thosewhoscore.75oraboveontheauthoritarianscalederivedfromthechild-rearing
questions.Onthisscale,1representsanindividualwiththestrongestpredispositionto
authoritarianismand0equalsanonauthoritarian.
JustoverfourteenpercentofBritains(14.4%)notcha1onthescale.IntheUnited
States,bycomparison,16.8%ofwhiteAmericansscored1ontheauthoritarianscale
generatedfromdatafromthenational2014CooperativeCongressionalElectionSurvey
(CCES).
Britishauthoritariansaremorelikelytosupporttheright-wingEuroscepticand
populistUnitedKingdomIndependenceParty(UKIP).WhensupportforUKIPinthe2015
electionsisestimatedinamodelthatincludessixvariables–authoritarianism,age,gender,
income,ethnicity,andsocialstatus–theeffectofauthoritarianismonsupportforUKIPis
statisticallyandsubstantivelysignificant.Theonlyothervariableinthemodelwitha
statisticallysignificanteffectonthe2015UKIPvoteissocialclass.Buttheeffectofsocial
classonsupportforUKIPisdwarfedbythatofauthoritarianism.
worldviewstructuredalongthepredispositionalandsocially-learneddivisionbetweenauthoritariansand
nonauthoritarians.
5
AfullerdiscussionofTrump’ssuccessintheRepublicannominatingprocesscanbefoundat
https://acpress.amherst.edu/the-rise-of-trump/.
3|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
BritishauthoritariansarealmostfivetimesmorelikelytosupportUKIPthannon
authoritarians.WhilejustoverninepercentofBritains(9.5%)claimedinthesurveyto
havevotedforUKIPinthe2015generalelection,almostaquarterofauthoritarians
(23.1%)whoscored1onthescalewerepredictedtobeUKIPsupporters.Therising
supportforUKIPacrosstheauthoritarianscaleisdemonstratedgraphicallyusing
predictedprobabilities6inthefigurebelow(seeFigure1).
0
.05
.1
.15
.2
.25
Probability: Support for UKIP
.3
Figure 1: Support for United Kingdom Independence Party
by Authoritarianism
0
.25
.5
.75
1
AUTHORITARIAN SCALE
( 0=Non Authoritarian, 1=Authoritarian)
N=1,661. YouGov Online Survey for MSC 8/23-24, 2016
AuthoritarianisminBritainwasalsoasignificantdeterminantoftheoutcomeofthe
Brexitvote.InamodelwithBrexitaswhatisknownmethodologicallyasthedependent
variableandauthoritarianism,age,gender,income,ethnicity,andsocialstatusthe
independentvariables,theeffectofauthoritarianismwasagainbothstatisticallyand
substantivelysignificant.InthecaseoftheBrexitvote,however,age,incomeandsocial
6
Predictedprobabilitiesareastatisticaltoolthatisusedtotransformdifficulttointerpretregressionresults
intosimpledatathatisreadilyunderstandable.
4|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
classalsohadstatisticallysignificanteffectsonthevotewithBritishvoterswhoareolder,
poorer,andoflowersocialstatusbeingmorelikelytovotetoleavetheEuropeanUnion.
ThesubstantiveeffectofauthoritarianismwassimilartotheeffectofageontheBrexitvote
butwassubstantiallygreaterthanbothincomeandsocialclass.ABritishnonauthoritarian’spredictedprobabilityofsupportingBrexitwasjust3in10(31%)whilethe
likelihoodanauthoritarianinBritainsupportedBrexitwas3in4(74%).
France.Nearlythirty-nine(38.6%)ofpeopleinFranceage18andolderarehigh
authoritarians,scoringeither.75or1ontheauthoritarianscale.Inavotemodelthat
containedauthoritarianism,age,gender,income,andeducation,authoritarianismwasthe
onlystatisticallysignificantandsubstantivevariablepredictingavotefortheNational
Frontpresidentialcandidate,MarineLePen,inthefirstroundofthe2012French
presidentialelections.Noneoftheothervariablesinthemodelapproachedstatistical
significance.AswithsupportforUKIPinBritain,theeffectofauthoritarianismonvotingfor
theNationalFrontwasunmistakable.
Whenaskedwhichpartytheyfeelclosesttonow,authoritarianismisonceagaina
statisticallysignificantandsubstantivepredictorofFrenchsupportfortheNationalFront–
thougheducationaldifferencesalsoplayarole.Theprobabilityofanonauthoritarianin
FrancesupportingtheNationalFrontislessthan1in10(8.7%)whileover3inten
authoritariansinFrance(31.5%)arelikelytosupporttheNationalFront.Again,the
structuringofFrenchsupportfortheNationalFrontbyauthoritarianismisreadily
apparentwhengraphedacrossthe0-to-1authoritarianscale(seeFigure2–nextpage).
5|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
.1
.15
.2
.25
.3
Probability: Support for National Front
Figure 2: Support for National Front in France
by Authoritarianism
0
.25
.5
.75
1
AUTHORITARIAN SCALE
( 0=Non Authoritarian, 1=Authoritarian)
N=1,001. YouGov Online Survey for MSC 8/31-9/2, 2016
Sweden.Swedenhasthesmallestpercentageofhighauthoritarians(20.5%)amongthe
fournationsanalyzed.Nonetheless,authoritarianismstructurespoliticalbehaviorin
SwedenasitdoesinGreatBritain,France,andGermany.Authoritarianismhada
statisticallyandsubstantivelysignificanteffectonsupportfortheright-wingpopulist
SwedenDemocratsinthe2014parliamentaryelections.Inamodelwithgender,education,
income,andage,theprobabilityofthehighestauthoritarians(1onthescale)votingforthe
SwedenDemocratsin2014was14.2%whilenon-authoritarians’likelihoodofsupporting
themwasonly4.9%.
Moreimportantly,authoritarianismislikelytoplayamuchgreaterroleinthenext
electioninSweden.Authoritarianismandgenderaretheonlyvariableswithastatistically
significanteffectonsupportfortheSwedenDemocrats.Andtheeffectofauthoritarianism
issubstantivelyquitepronouncedwith40.8%ofthehighestauthoritarianspredictedto
supporttheSwedenDemocratscomparedtojust16.5%ofnonauthoritarians.
6|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
ThestatedsupportforSwedenDemocratsin2014andtheprojectedsupportifan
electionwereheldtodayisgraphedbelowacrosstheauthoritarianscaleandshowsthe
increasinginfluenceofauthoritarianismonestimatedsupportforSwedenDemocrats(see
Figure3).
0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3 .35 .4
Probability: Support for Sweden Democrats
Figure 3: Support for Sweden Democrats
by Authoritarianism
0
.25
.5
.75
1
AUTHORITARIAN SCALE
2014 Vote
Future Vote
N=1,007. YouGov Online Survey for MSC 8/31-9/6, 2016
Germany.Almostoneinthree(31.9%)ofpeopleage18yearsorolderinGermanyarehigh
authoritarians,scoringeithera.75or1onauthoritarianism.Becauseofstatisticalconcerns
aboutthevalidityofthefullscale,whichislikelyaproductofthequestionwording
translation,justtwoofthechild-rearingquestionswereusedtoestimatetheeffectof
authoritarianismonsupportfortheNationalDemocraticPartyofGermany(NPD)and
AlternativeforGermany(AFD).Thesetwoquestionsaskwhetherchildrenshouldbe
obedientandrespectelders.Thesetwovalueshavebeencorecomponentsofauthoritarian
measurementsincetheF-scalewasdevelopedinthelate1940s.
7|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
Inamodelspecifyingauthoritarianism7,gender,age,education,andincomeas
independentvariablesandmembershipintheNPDorAFDastheoutcome,every
independentvariableexceptincomehadastatisticallysignificantandsubstantiveeffect.
TheeffectofauthoritarianismonsupportfortheNPDorAFD,however,wasthegreatest.
TheprobabilityofaGermanwhoisnotanauthoritariansupportingeitheroftheseparties
isjust5.2%,whileaGermanauthoritarianhasa47.4%predictedprobabilityofsupporting
eithertheNPDorAFD.Inotherwords,thereisafifty-fiftylikelihoodthataGermanwho
believesthatchildrenshouldbeobedientandrespectelderssupportsoneofthesetwo
parties–asignificantoutcome.
II.ComparativeData:AuthoritarianSupportintheUnitedStatesforDonaldTrump
ApproximatelyonemonthbeforethefirstRepublicannominatingcontestsinIowa
andNewHampshirein2016,anationalpollofregisteredvotersintheUnitedStateswas
fieldedtodetermineifDonaldTrump’sauthoritarianmessageandmannerhadactivated
Americanauthoritarians.Usingthefourchild-rearingquestionstoestimateAmericans’
individualdispositiontoauthoritarianism,thepollfoundthatauthoritarianismwasoneof
onlytwovariablesthatwerestatisticallyandsubstantivelysignificantpredictorsof
Trump’ssupportamonglikelyRepublicanprimaryvoters.Theauthoritarianinclinationsof
TrumpvoterswereabundantlyclearwhenthepredictedprobabilityofsupportingTrump
isestimatedandarrayedacrosstheauthoritarianscale(seeFigure4–nextpage).
7
Authoritarianismwasestimatedastheinteractionbetweenthesetwoquestions.Thus,apersonwho
answeredobedienceandrespectisconsideredanauthoritarian.
8|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
.05
.15
.25
.35
.45
Probability of Supporting Trump
.55
Figure 4: Support for Trump by Authoritarianism
Among Likely Republican Primary Voters
0
.25
.5
.75
1
AUTHORITARIAN SCALE
N=1800. Republican Primary N=540. Authoritarian p-value=.001.
University of Massachusetts Amherst. Survey Dates: 12/10-12/15, 2015
Theonlyothervariablethatwasastatisticallysignificantpredictorofsupportfor
Trumpwaspersonalfearofterrorism.8Additionalvariablesintheregressionmodel
includedsex,educationalattainment,age,churchattendance,evangelicalism,ideology,
race,andincome—allaretypicallyimportantpredictorsofsupportfororoppositiontoa
candidate.ThesevariableshadnostatisticalbearingonsupportforTrump.Importantly,
whenitcomestoauthoritarianism,Trumpsupporterswerealsodistinctintheirattitudes
fromthefollowersofotherRepublicancandidatesforpresident.Modelsexaminingsupport
forTedCruz,BenCarson,MarcoRubio,andJebBush,estimatedusingthesamesetof
independentvariables,foundthatauthoritarianismhadnoeffectonsupportforTrump’s
opponents
ThedifferencebetweenpredictedauthoritariansupportforTrumpandallother
Republicancandidatesisreadilyapparentwhencombinedintoonechart(seeFigure5).
Lookingatthisfigure,itisimportanttonotethatauthoritarianismisonlyastatistically
8Thewordingofthisquestionwas:“Howworriedareyouthatyouorsomeoneinyourfamilywillbecomea
victimofterrorism?”Questionanswersrangedfrom“NotAtAll”to“ALot”ona7-pointLikertscale.
9|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
significantvariableforTrump.Thus,whilethedifferencebetweenthepredictedvalueof
Trump’ssupportamongauthoritariansandnonauthoritariansisstatisticallymeaningful,
anyvariationinsupportacrosstheauthoritarianscalefortheothercandidatesisnot.
.05 .15 .25 .35 .45 .55
Predicted Probability of Support
Figure 5: Support for Trump, Cruz, Carson, Rubio & Bush by Authoritarianism
Among Likely Republican Primary Voters
0
.25
.5
.75
1
AUTHORITARIAN SCALE
Trump
Cruz
Carson
Rubio
Bush
N=1800. Republican Primary N=540. Authoritarian p-value for Trump <.05, All Others >.05.
University of Massachusetts Amherst. Survey Dates: 12/10-12/15, 2015
Theoretically,authoritariansandnonauthoritarians,whoaremoreworriedabout
terrorism,shouldalsobeareceptiveaudienceforfear-ladenmessageofacandidatelike
DonaldTrump.Andtheywere.
Resultsfromthenationalsurveyfoundthatpersonalfearofterrorismwasa
statisticallysignificantpredictorofsupportforTrump.Authoritarians,aswellasfearful
Americans,were(andremain)keycomponentsofDonaldTrump’sbaseofsupport.
Trump’scallsforvigilanceactivatedauthoritariansaswellasenergizinganaudienceofnon
authoritariansprimedbyfear.
Usingpredictedprobabilities,theeffectoffearofterrorismonsupportforTrump
amonglessauthoritarianvotersisalsounmistakable.Themorefearfulnonauthoritarians
wereofthethreatposedbyterrorism,themorelikelytheyweretosupportDonaldTrump.
10|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
AuthoritariansandfearfulnonauthoritarianswereactivatedbyTrump’smessageand
energizedtosupporthim.Authoritarianismandfear–activatedandfocusedbyaleader
whoadoptsastrongmanmannerandmessage–islikelytobeaspotentapoliticalforcein
EuropeasithasbeenintheUnitedStates.
III.Summary:ReviewofExistingMeasuresofAuthoritarianisminEuropeanSurvey
Data(byDr.ErikTillman)
Therelationshipbetweenauthoritarianismandpoliticalbehaviorisgenerating
renewedandgrowinginterest.Recentdevelopmentssuggestthata“worldviewevolution”
(Hetherington&Weiler2009)isunderwayinWesterncountriesthatmayshapetheir
electoralpoliticsfordecadestocome.Forthisreason,accesstoreliableandvalidmeasures
ofdispositionaltraitssuchasauthoritarianism,whichshapeworldviews,isessential.
Unfortunately,fewexistingcross-nationalandnationalsurveyseriesinEuropecurrently
containsuchmeasures,hinderingthedevelopmentofknowledgeaboutthisimportantarea
ofresearch.Whilealternativemeasuresoffersomepromise,itisoftenunclearhowwell
theseindicatorsperforminestimatingauthoritarianism.Thus,thestudyof
authoritarianismanditseffectsonpoliticalattitudesandbehaviorinEuropeislimitedby
thelackofcomparablesurveymeasuresacrossdifferentsurveys,countries,andyears.
Whatfollowsreviewsauthoritariantheory,measurement,andEuropeancrossnationalandnationalsurveydatameasuringauthoritarianism.
ConceptualizingAuthoritarianism.
Authoritarianismwasdevelopedasaconcepttoexplainpopularsupportforfascist
regimesinEurope(Adornoetal1950).Thoughearlypioneeringstudiesweresoon
criticizedonconceptualandmethodologicalgrounds,thetopichasremainedinfluentialin
thestudyofpoliticalpsychology.Laterscholarshaverevisedtheconceptandits
measurementinvariousways(e.g.,Altemeyer1981,1996;Stenner2005;Oesterreich
2005;Hetherington&Weiler2009).Asaresult,thereareaclusterofdefinitionsthatagree
onseveralcoretraitswhiledisagreeingonquestionsrelatedtotheoriginsof
11|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
authoritarianism,howitismanifestedinattitudesandbehavior,andhowtomeasureit.As
Stenner(2009,142)notes,“Scholarswithwidelyvaryingnotionsofwhatauthoritarianism
isandwhereitcomesfromhavelongagreedonthebroadcontoursofwhatitlookslike
andwhatitdoes”(emphasisoriginal).
Authoritarianismischaracterizedbyahighdesiretomaintainsocialorderand
conformityattheexpenseofindividualautonomy(Feldman&Stenner1997,Stenner2005,
Hetherington&Weiler2009).Tothatend,authoritariansdisplayseveralattitudinaland
behavioraltraits.Thefirsttraitisconventionalism,apronouncedtendencytoadoptthe
sharedvaluesandbehaviorsofthedominantsocialgroupandtorejectnon-conformist
behaviororvalues.Asecondtraitishigherwillingnesstosubmittoestablishedsourcesof
authority,whichcouldincludepoliticalorreligiousleadersandtextsorsimply“traditional
values.”Italsoincludesmorewillingnesstopunishdeviantsandmembersoftheout-group
whochallengetheconventionalvaluesofthein-group(asdefinedbyestablished
authorities)(seeAdornoetal1950;Altemeyer1981,1996).Asaresult,authoritarianismis
likelytoleadtohigherlevelsoftraditionalism,out-grouphostility,intoleranceofdissent,
andsupportforthepunishmentofdeviantsand“troublemakers.”Bycontrast,low
authoritariansdisplaygreaterpreferenceforpreservingindividualautonomy,reflectedin
highertoleranceforout-groupmembers,deviance,dissent,andgreaterhostilitytowards
sourcesofauthoritythattendtosuppressthem.
MeasuringAuthoritarianism.
Sincethestartofresearchintoauthoritarianismintheimmediatepostwaryears
(Adornoetal1950),scholarshavedevelopedseveralmeasurementapproaches.Aside
fromtheusualpitfallsfacingthedevelopmentofanyvalidandreliablemeasurementscale,
thestudyofauthoritarianismposesafurtherchallenge.Scholarsareusuallyinterestedin
measuringauthoritarianisminindividualrespondentsinordertounderstanditseffectson
socialandpoliticalattitudes.Therefore,thescalesshouldnotincludeitemsmeasuringthe
samesortsofattitudesthatresearchersmaythenwishtoexplain.Thishasprovena
particularchallengeinthedevelopmentofthemeasurementofauthoritarianism.
TheinitialscaleusedtomeasureauthoritarianismwastheCaliforniaF-Scale
(Adornoetal1950),socalledbecausethe“F”stoodforfascism.Thisscalesoonfelloutof
12|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
favorforseveralreasons,andpsychologistBobAltemeyerdevelopedthemostimportant
alternativecalledtheRight-WingAuthoritarianism(RWA)Scale(Altemeyer1981,1996).
TheRWAscale,whileaveryvalidandreliablemeasureofauthoritarianism,suffersfrom
theproblemdescribedinthepreviousparagraph.Itsitemsincludemeasuresofsocial,
cultural,andpoliticalattitudes,meaningthatitmaymeasurethesamesortofattitudesthat
authoritarianismresearcherswillwishtoexplain.
AnimprovedmeasurewasidentifiedbypoliticalpsychologistsStanleyFeldmanand
KarenStenner(seeFeldman1997,FeldmanandStenner2003,Stenner2005).They
identifiedthatusingitemsaskingrespondentstoindicatepreferencestowardschildrearingvaluesgeneratesascalethatisavalidandreliablemeasureofauthoritarianism
whilemeasuringvaluesthatareconceptuallydistinctandthatdeveloppriortothe
attitudesthatauthoritarianismshouldexplain.Themostcommonfour-itemscaleisas
follows:
“Althoughthereareanumberofqualitiesthatpeoplebelievechildrenshouldhave,
everypersonthinksthatsomequalitiesaremoreimportantthanothers.Beloware
fourpairsofdesirablequalities.Pleasechoosewhichqualityfromeachpairismore
importantforachildtohave:
1.(a)RespectforEldersOR(b)Independence
2.(a)Self-relianceOR(b)Obedience
3.(a)GoodMannersOR(b)Curiosity
4.(a)BeingconsiderateOR(b)Beingwell-behaved”
Respondents’answerstothesequestionsrevealtheirpreferencesconcerningthe
fundamentaltradeoffbetweenindividualautonomyandconformitytosocialexpectations.
Theanswersindicatingapreferenceforindividualautonomy(independence,self-reliance,
curiosity,beingconsiderate)reflectapreferencefornon-authoritarianvalues,whilethe
othersetofresponses(respectforelders,obedience,goodmanners,andbeingwellbehaved)demonstrateapreferenceforauthoritarianvalues.Thesefouritemsgeneratea
scaleofauthoritarianism,whichresearchinvariouscontextshasshowntobevalidand
13|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
reliable(Stenner2005,Hetherington&Weiler2009,Tillman2013).Inshort,thischildrearingvaluesscaleisthepreferredmeasureofauthoritarianism
Cross-NationalSurveys.
Therearefourmajorcross-nationalsurveyseriesinEuropethatarewidelyusedby
researchers:theEuropeanValuesSurvey(EVS)andWorldValuesSurvey(WVS),European
SocialSurvey(ESS),theEuropeanElectionStudy(EES),andtheEurobarometerseries.
EuropeanValuesSurvey
TheEVS/WVSsurveysincludeaquestionthatcanbeusedtogenerateamodified
formofthechild-rearingvaluesscale.Thesurveycontainsaquestionaskingrespondents
tonameuptofivecharacteristics(fromalistof11)thataredesirableinchildren.Threeof
thosecharacteristics(goodmanners,obedience,andreligiousfaith)tapintoauthoritarian
values,whilethreeothers(independence,imagination,and“toleranceandrespectforother
people”)tapintonon-authoritarianvalues.Theotherfivevalues(hardwork,feelingof
responsibility,thrift,determination,andunselfishness)donotreflectatradeoffbetween
authoritarianandnon-authoritarianvalues.Bymeasuringthenumberofauthoritarianand
non-authoritarianvaluesthateachrespondentchooses,onecancalculateameasureof
authoritarianismfromthisquestion.
ThemajorproblemwiththeEVS/WVSmeasureistheformatofthequestion.The
inclusionoffive“neutral”characteristics,alongwiththefactthatrespondentsareaskedto
choose“uptofive”answers,meansthatrespondentscanavoidindicatinganypreference
forauthoritarianornon-authoritarianqualities.Moreover,thefiveneutralqualitiesare
generallydesirableforallpeople,soitisreasonabletoexpectthatmanyrespondents
wouldpreferthoseregardlessoftheirlevelofauthoritarianism.Therefore,thisquestion
willlikelyyieldascalewithmoreresponsesclosetothemidpoint(i.e.,neutralbetween
authoritarianandnon-authoritarianvalues),producingameasurethattendsto
underestimatethedegreeofauthoritarianismandthusproducemoreconservative
estimatesoftherelationshipbetweenauthoritarianismandpoliticalattitudes.Nonetheless,
thismeasureisthebestavailableforstudyingauthoritarianisminthemajorEuropean
cross-nationalsurveys.
14|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
TheEVS/WVSseriesislimitedinonefurtherrespect.TheEVSwasonly
administeredeverynineyears,in1981,1990,1999,and2008(a2017waveisbeingjointly
plannedwiththeWVS).ThisinfrequentsurveyadministrationlimitstheuseofEVSdatato
examinechangingattitudesovertime.Nonetheless,theEVSisahigh-qualitydatasource
containingausefulmeasureofauthoritarianism.
EuropeanSocialSurvey
TheESSisalsoahigh-qualitycross-nationalsurveythathasbeenadministered
everytwoyearssince2002.Itsfrequency,widecountrycoverage,andbroadrangeof
questionsmakeitanexcellentdatasource.However,itdoesnotincludeadirectmeasure
ofauthoritarianism.
TheESSincludesthe21-itemPortraitValuesQuestionnaire,developedby
psychologistShalomSchwartz(Schwartz1992,1994;Davidovetal2008).This
questionnairelinkstoSchwartz’sconceptualizationoftenuniversalhumanvalues.Each
value(exceptUniversalism,whichhasthreequestions)ismeasuredviatwoquestions,in
whichrespondentsareaskedtostatewhetheraportraitofaperson’svaluesareverymuch
likethemselvesornot.ThePortraitValuesQuestionnairemeasuresareanalyticallypriorto
thepoliticalattitudesandbehaviorsthattheymightpredict,increasingitsvalue.Itdoesnot
directlymeasureauthoritarianism,butitmaybepossibleforresearcherstouseitto
measurespecificauthoritarianvalues.
Therearefourvaluesthatareparticularlyrelevanttoauthoritarianism:
Universalism(negativelycoded),Security,Traditionalism,andConformity.Security
describesamotivationtoliveinasafe,harmonious,andstableenvironmentfreefrom
threatsordanger.Itisamotivationtopreserveindividualsafetyandthebroadersocial
order.TraditionandConformityarecloselyrelatedvalues.Traditiondescribesan
adherencetothevaluesandbeliefsprovidedbyreligionandotherestablishedsocialrules,
whileConformitydescribesadesiretorestrainone’sbehaviortoavoidviolatingsocial
norms.Inthissense,Traditiondescribesadherencetoestablishedandunchangingvalues
(suchasthoseprovidedbyreligion)whileConformitydescribesadherencetothevalues
andnormsofone’scommunity(whichcouldbelocalizedandchangeable).Thesetwo
valuesshareincommonamotivationtomaintainthesocialorderandtosubordinateone’s
autonomytoexternalstandards.Universalismdescribesavalueoftoleranceofand
15|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
concernforthewelfareofallpeople.Inthissense,universalismisarejectionof
ethnocentrism;individualswhoendorseuniversalisticvalueswouldbelievethatall
personsdeserveequaltreatment.Tillmanusesthesevaluesinunpublishedpapersto
measuretheeffectofauthoritarianismonsupportforEuropeanintegration(2016a)and
supportforradicalrightparties(2016b).However,thereislimitedresearchsuggesting
thatthesehumanvaluesareappropriatemeasuresofauthoritarianism.Therefore,these
shouldbeviewedasalternativesthatmaybeacceptablewhenothermeasuresof
authoritarianismarenotavailable.
EuropeanElectionStudy
TheEuropeanElectionStudyisacross-nationalsurveyconductedineachEU
memberstateatthetimeofeachEuropeanParliamentelection.Themostrecentwas
conductedin2014.Thesurveyseriesdoesnotincludeaconsistentmeasureof
authoritarianism,limitingitsusefulnessforresearchers.However,themostrecentversion
containedtwoquestionsthatcanbeusedtocreateaverybasicscale.Thefirstasks
respondentstoplacethemselvesona0-10scaleindicatingoppositionorsupportforsamesexmarriage.Thesecondasksrespondentswhethertheyprefertoprotectindividual
privacyrightsortofightcrime.Thesequestionstapintopreferencesrelatedto
traditionalism,socialconformity,andindividualautonomy.However,thepoliticalcontent
ofthesequestions,andthefactthatthereareonlytwo,limittheirappropriatenessas
measuresofauthoritarianism.Therefore,theEEShaslimitedvalueforscholarsinterested
inunderstandingtheeffectsofauthoritarianismonpoliticalbehaviorinEurope.
Eurobarometer
TheEurobarometersurveyseriesisanimpressivedatacollectionenterprise.
However,thesurveyseriesdoesnotcontainameasureofauthoritarianism,soitisnot
usefulforpoliticalpsychologistsinterestedinresearchingthisdynamic.
NationalSurveySeries.
Thesituationissimilarwiththenationalelectionstudyseries.Nationalelection
studieshavedevelopedinmostEuropeancountriesoverthepastseveraldecades.Because
eachsurveyserieshastypicallydevelopedwithinanationalcontext,shapedbyaparticular
groupofresearcherswithinthatcountry,therecanoftenbesignificantdifferencesinthe
16|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
questionsthatareincludedoneach.NoEuropeannationalelectionstudyseriesappearsto
includethechild-rearingquestions.Someseriesincludealternativemeasuresthat
resemble“Right-WingAuthoritarianism”items,includingthoseofAustriaandBritain.
Othernationalseriesincludemeasuresthatareofvaryinguseinmeasuringauthoritarian
attitudes,whichcanincludequestionsaboutpunitivenesstowardscriminals,acceptanceof
non-conformistlifestyles,orofmulticulturalism.Child-rearingquestionswereincluded,
however,inrecentnationalelectionsurveysfieldedinGermanyandSwitzerland;
preliminaryresultssuggestthatthesemeasures“travel”effectivelyacrosslanguageand
culturalboundaries,andtheyarevalidandreliablemeasuresinthosecontexts.
BritishElectionStudy
TheBritishElectionStudy(BES)hasbeenestablishedforseveraldecades.It
includesabatteryoffivequestionsmeasuringauthoritarianattitudes.Inthemostrecent
panelsurvey,thesequestionswere:
•
YoungpeopletodaydonothaveenoughrespectforBritishvalues
•
Forsomecrimes,thedeathpenaltyismostappropriate
•
Schoolsshouldteachchildrentoobeyauthority
•
Censorshipisnecessarytoupholdmoralvalues
•
Peoplewhobreakthelawshouldgetstiffersentences.”
Respondentsareaskedtostateagreementordisagreementwitheachofthesestatements,
withmoreagreementindicatingendorsementofauthoritarianattitudes.Thesestatements
areusefulmeasuresofauthoritarianattitudes,andtheycanbecombinedtoformavalid
andreliablescale.However,severalquestionscontainpoliticalcontent(particularlythe
“deathpenalty”and“stiffersentences”questions),whichcanpotentiallycontaminate
analysesoftheeffectsofauthoritarianismonpoliticalattitudesbymeasuringthesame
attitudesthataresupposedtobeexplained.Moreover,measuresofauthoritarianattitudes
leaveanunresolvedquestionaboutwhetherthepredispositionisbeingmeasuredorthe
attitudeswhenactivated.Nonetheless,theinclusionofthesequestionsopensthe
possibilityofanalyzingtherelationshipbetweenauthoritarianattitudesandcertain
politicalattitudes.
AustrianNationalElectionStudy
17|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
TheAustrianNationalElectionStudy(AUTNES)isrelativelynew,havingonlybeen
establishedintimeforthe2009election.Itincludesafive-questionbatterysimilartothat
oftheBES.Thoseitemsare:
•
Weshouldbegratefulforleaderswhotellusexactlywhattodo
•
Theageinwhichdisciplineandobedienceforauthorityaresomeofthemost
importantvaluesshouldbeover(reversed)
•
Oursocietyforoncehastocrackdownharderoncriminals
•
Ourcountryneedspeoplewhoopposetraditionsandtryoutdifferentideas
(reversed)
•
Thiscountrywouldflourishifpeoplepaidmoreattentiontotraditionsandvalues
AswiththeBESscale,thesequestionsarereliablemeasuresofauthoritarianattitudes.
However,thethirdquestionaboutcrimewouldlikely“contaminate”anyanalysesof
attitudesaboutcriminalpolicyorregardingpartiespromisingtoimposelawandorder.
Additionally,itisworthnothingthatthefinaltwoquestionsseemtobereversedversions
ofeachother,whichmayintroducesomeproblemsintothescale.
GermanLongitudinalElectionStudy
TheGermanLongitudinalElectionStudy(GLES)isalsoahigh-qualitysurveywithan
extensivetimeseriescollectionandcorebatteryofquestions.Assuch,itisanexcellent
resourceforscholarsofpublicopinion.However,itsmeasurementofauthoritarianismis
limited.Thestandardsurveyincludesa“Libertarian-AuthoritarianDimension”question.
Thisquestionasksrespondentstoplacethemselvesonascalefavoringmore(libertarian)
orless(authoritarian)immigration.Assuch,thisquestionmeasuresatheorizedattitudinal
consequenceofauthoritarianism(hostilitytowardsoutgroups)ratherthanthe
authoritariandispositionitself.
InresponsetoaCallforQuestionsin2012,abatteryofthreechild-rearing
authoritarianismmeasureswasincludedintheSpring2014waveofthesurvey(itdidnot
includethe“beingconsiderate”versus“beingwellbehaved”question).Analysesusing
thesequestionsarereportedinTillman(2016b),andtheysuggestthattheseitemsare
validandreliablewhenusedinaGermansurvey.
OtherNationalSurveySeries
18|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
Asnotedintheintroductoryparagraph,nonationalsurveyseriesotherthanthose
describedhasconsistentlyofferedanauthoritarianismmeasure,totheauthor’sknowledge.
Mostoffersomesetofquestionsthatcanpotentiallybeusedtomeasureauthoritarian
attitudes,thoughtheseremainproblematicforscholarsinterestedinstudyingtheeffectsof
authoritarianismonpoliticalattitudes.Inaddition,thefactthatdifferentquestionstendto
beaskedineachnationalseriesmeansthatthereissomeuncertaintyaboutthe
substitutabilityofeachmeasure.Workdesignedtomeasurehowwellvariousquestions
askedineachnationalsurveycorrelateorpredictthesameattitudesandbehaviorswould
benecessary.
OneexampleofsuchquestionscanbefoundintheFinnishElectionStudy.Ithasa
batteryofquestionsaskingrespondentstoexpresstheir(dis)approvalofvariouspotential
developmentsinFinlandinthecomingyears.Thisbatteryincludessocial,economic,and
culturalitems.Thespecificitemsthatcanbeusedtogenerateanauthoritarianattitudes
scaleare:
•
Christianvalueshavingagreaterrole
•
Morelawandorder
•
TraditionalFinnishvaluesbeingcherished
•
Thestatusoffamiliesisreinforced
•
Thestatusofsexualminoritiesisreinforced(reversed)
•
MulticulturalFinlandwhereforeignerswithdifferentreligionsandlifestylesare
tolerated(reversed)
Foreachitem,respondentscanplacethemselvesonaten-pointscalewithonepole
indicatingwhetherthiswouldbeagooddevelopmentforFinlandandtheotherindicating
thatitwouldbeabaddevelopment.
IV.ContactandSurveyInformation
Contact:SectionsIthroughIII
Dr.MatthewC.MacWilliams
MacWilliamsSandersCommunication,President.
UniversityofMassachusettsAmherst,PhD
19|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism
Phone(US):413-537-6537
Email1:[email protected]
Email2:[email protected],edu
Contact:SectionIII
Dr.ErikR.Tillman
DePaulUniversity,AssociateProfessor
[email protected]
SurveyInformation:
GreatBritain:Sample:N=1,661Adults.Fieldwork:August23-24,2016.Online
Survey–YouGov.
France:Sample:N=1,001Adults.Fieldwork:August31-September2,2016.Online
Survey–YouGov.
Sweden:Sample1,007Adults.Fieldwork:August31-September6,2016.Online
Survey–YouGov.
Germany:Sample2,125Adults.Fieldwork:August31-September5,2016.Online
Survey–YouGov.
UnitedStates:Sample1,800Adults.FieldworkDecember10-15,2015.OnlineSurvey
–UniversityofMassachusettsAmherstandMatthewC.MacWilliams.
20|MSCSurveyFindings:Authoritarianism,EuropeanPopulistNationalistParties,andTrumpism