Tri-City Office Market
H1 2016
90,200
Students
PLN 4,864
Residents
of the Tri-city
23,400
Average monthly wage
(117% of the national average)
747,000
Graduates
€ 8,527
20
AA+
16,900
Higher education
institutions
Tri-City
Residents of the
agglomeration
4.0%
1,036,300
Credit rating
for Gdańsk
by Fitch Ratings
Employees in
BPO/SSC/IT/R&D
centres in the Tri-City
Annual purchasing
power per capita
(132% of the national average)
Unemployment rate
(National average 8.8%)
104
Number of
BPO/SSC/IT/R&D
centres operating in
the Tri-City
>100%
BPO/SSC/IT/R&D
job growth 2013-2016 (in
centres with foreign capital)
Source: GfK Polonia (data as of 2015), Central Statistical Office (data as of 2015, the most recent data available; data on unemployment as of June 2016), Fitch Ratings
estimated at 64,700 m2 (80% of which entered the market in
H1 2016).
Office Market
Over the last two decades the Tri-City agglomeration has been
transformed into an important and dynamically growing office
location, offering numerous cost-effective, large-scale lease options.
Since the 2008 the amount of office space in the Tri-City has almost
tripled (from 229,300 m2 in Q4 2008 to 629,300 m2 in Q2 2016).
A distinctive feature of the Tri-City is its talent pool with a good
command of niche foreign languages (including Norwegian,
Swedish, Finnish and Danish). This, along with recent improvements
to its transport infrastructure, looks set to open up new business
opportunities for the region in terms of labour market development,
attracting new projects from the business services sector (currently
the Tri-City is the fourth largest SSC/BPO centre in the country, after
Kraków, Warsaw and Wrocław).
The construction activity in the Tri-City illustrates the strong
developer confidence in the region. Currently, there is approximately
132,100 m2 of modern office space under development in the entire
agglomeration, below only the amounts seen in Warsaw, Kraków
and Wrocław. We estimate that modern office space the Tri-City will
grow to around 800,000 m2 by the end of 2018.
The office market in the Tri-City has historically been dominated by
strong local developers. However, a number of international and
national developers such as: Echo Investment, Hines and Vastint
have marked their presence in the Tri-City office market by already
completing office projects in the area. Recently Skanska secured
another plot in Gdańsk for a potential office development.
Completions (m2), pipeline (m2) and vacancy rate (%)
100,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Completions (m²)
Pipeline (m²)
Demand for offices in the city continues to be on a sound up-wards
trend. After the strong 2014, totalling 66,500 m2 in gross terms, alltime high demand volumes were seen in 2015, with more than
107,000 m2 leased by corporate clients. H1 2016 was also quite
busy on the demand side of the market: almost 37,000 m2 was
transacted on in the Tri-City, with over a dozen of deals for more
than 1,000 m2. This clearly demonstrates the occupier confidence in
the Tri-City.
New demand for high quality office premises has been generated
mainly by expanding companies and newcomers. Among those who
have opened offices in the Tri-City recently are State Street and
ThyssenKrupp: those companies leased a total of 20,000 m2, which
increased the net absorption level in 2015. The largest transaction
signed in H1 2016 was a pre-let by Luxoft for 3,300 m2 in Alchemia
phase III.
Take-up in the Tri-City (m2)
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
80,000
Looking ahead, there are a number of significant development
opportunities in the pipeline for 2017-2018, of which projects offering
120,100 m2 of space already are at the construction stage.
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL, PORF, Q2 2016, *Vacancy rate as of Q2 2016
Growth in office supply has clearly accelerated, with around
87,000 m2 delivered in 2015 (vs the five-year average of 56,700 m2),
of which around 62,500 m2 was completed in Gdańsk and only
around 24,500 m2 in Gdynia. The realistic office supply in 2016 is
JLL
JLL
Magdalena Reńska
National Director
Head of the Tri-City Office
ul. Kaprów 19/28
80-316 Gdańsk
tel. +48 58 350 62 62
[email protected]
Mateusz Polkowski
Associate Director
Research & Consultancy
Warsaw Spire
Plac Europejski 1
00-844 Warszawa
tel. +48 22 167 00 00
[email protected]
www.jll.pl
www.jll.pl
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Net take-up
Renewals
Source: JLL, PORF, Q2 2016
2015
H1 2016
The positive sentiment on the leasing market is expected to be
sustained going forward, mainly due to the robust expansion of the
BPO/SSC sector which accounted for 56% of take-up in H1 2016.
The Tri-City offers a number of leasing options for small and medium
space requirements. However, the choice of immediately available
office modules of more than 5,000 m2 is limited. Occupiers looking
for larger offices have to consider under construction developments.
In total, the Tri-City offers 84,900 m2 of available office space spread
across 52 developments, which equates to a vacancy rate of 13.5%.
Since Q1 2015 the market has reached bottom in terms of rents,
which currently stand at €12.75-13.5 / m2 / month. The market
conditions will most likely continue to be tenant-favourable
throughout the whole of 2016 and 2017, mainly due to increasing
competition for pre-lease occupiers.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC.
2016. All rights reserved. No part of this publication
may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by
any means without prior written consent of Jones
Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we
believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been
made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any
warranty that it contains no factual errors.
We would like to be told of any such errors in order
to correct them.