CENSUS 2001: CANADA’S CHANGING FACE YV Introduction Focus This News in Review module looks at the 2001 Canadian census and the social trends it highlights as the information and statistics continue to be released. Special attention is given to those trends that most analysts have identified as critical to Canada’s future development. YV Sections marked with this symbol indicate content suitable for younger viewers. Did you know . . . Jean Talon of New France conducted Canada’s first census, in 1666? The population was 3215, the majority being males. Further Research It takes about 14 months to release all the results of the census. Basic data at the community level is made available free of charge on the Statistics Canada Web site at www.statcan.ca. A Canadian census is a massive undertaking. The most recent one officially conducted on May 15, 2001, was no exception. It took a full seven years to complete: questions developed and organized; forms printed, delivered, collected and checked; information tabulated, analyzed, and then made available to the public. It required 34 000 canvassers to distribute forms to 11.8 million households. During its most active period, from April through June 2001, the census employed 45 000 people, making it one of Canada’s 10 largest employers. The cost was $412.5million, or about $35 per household. Two different forms were distributed. Most households received a short form with seven questions dealing with age, sex, marital status, and mother tongue. Every fifth household, however, received a long form asking 59 questions about ethnic and national background, language, education, mobility, employment, and income. The responses form the basis for the trends described in information released to the public by Statistics Canada. Census information is eagerly awaited and absolutely critical to governments, social agencies, and many businesses. As Elaine Carey, a demographics reporter for the Toronto Star has written, “Every piece of planning that deals with people—from immigration services to housing, transportation requirements and schools—depends on data from the census” (July 20, 2002). Among other things, population statistics determine the number of members of Parliament and the areas they represent. Federal and provincial governments use the figures to determine transfer payments from richer areas of the country to the poorer ones. Local governments use the information to plan locations for schools, hospitals, and senior services. Government agencies use the data for long-term planning to ensure that programs match the changing needs of the population. Each time a census is held some of the questions change. New questions in 2001 dealt with language used at work, the number of different languages spoken at home, parents’ birthplaces, and same-sex couples. The next census, already well into the planning stages, will be held in 2006. This time, forms will be mailed rather than delivered to 80 per cent of households, and respondents will have the option of answering on the Internet. Statistics Canada hopes that at least 30 to 40 per cent of Canadians will respond in that fashion. To Consider What questions do you think would be of the greatest interest to the governments and planners relying on census data? Write your answers in your notebook and then compare your answers with the data identified on the video. CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 34 CENSUS 2001: CANADA’S CHANGING FACE YV Video Review To help you understand the scope and importance of the 2001 census, watch the video and answer the questions on this and the following page. 1. What is the most important role of the Canadian census? 2. Name three things that the census allows the federal government to do. i) _______________________________________________________________ ii) _______________________________________________________________ iii) _______________________________________________________________ 3. What federal agency oversees the census? __________________________ 4. How often is a census taken? ______________________ 5. What percentage of the Canadian population was born outside of Canada? _____% 6. How many immigrants came to Canada between 1991-2001? 7. What percentage of new immigrants are visible minorities? _______% 8. From which part of the world did the largest proportion of immigrants come? 9. Where do most immigrants live after they come to Canada? 10. Who are the Allophones? _____________________________ 11. Give an example of the way the federal government might use census information. 12. Give an example of the way a local government might use census information. CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 35 13. Name two major implications of the aging of the Canadian population. i) _______________________________________________________________ ii) _______________________________________________________________ 14. According to the census, what is happening to the “traditional” Canadian family? 15. Give two examples of other types of families identified by the census. i) _______________________________________________________________ ii) _______________________________________________________________ 16. What is the percentage of adult children living at home with their parents? _____% Discussion After watching the video, discuss the following in small groups: What do you think is the most important piece of information we have learned from the 2001 Census? Why? Be prepared to share your answers. CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 36 CENSUS 2001: CANADA’S CHANGING FACE YV The Numbers Tell the Story Statistics Canada spells it out in cold, hard numbers: We are an overwhelmingly urban nation whose future depends on immigration.” — Toronto Star, March 13, 2002 Definition Demographics are population statistics such as births, deaths, and nationality studied by demographers. “We’re relying more and more on immigration to sustain the growth of the population and therefore the growth of the market.” — David Foot, University of Toronto professor, in the National Post, March 12, 2002 “Instead of a loose affiliation of Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and the West, for the first time this country’s foundation is formed by four sprawling urban centres.” — James Travers, Toronto Star, March 23, 2002 Statistics Canada likes to describe the census as providing a “snapshot” of the country on a particular day: in this case, May 15, 2001. By comparing the most recent statistics with those of previous censuses, demographers can identify trends in Canadian society and predict future developments with considerable accuracy. Statistics Canada releases its information over a 14-month period under a variety of different headings. Here are some of its major findings as of March 1, 2003. Population Growth Between 1996 and 2001, Canada’s population grew by four per cent, to 30 007 094 inhabitants. For the first time since the Second World War, the natural increase was outpaced by immigration. Canada’s natural population increase (i.e. that due to the Canadian birth rate) is in steep decline. Not all parts of Canada saw population increases from 1996 to 2001. The largest percentage increase in population was in Alberta, up by 10.3 per cent. Nunavut saw an 8 per cent increase. While Ontario and British Columbia grew at rates above the national average of 4 per cent, Manitoba, Quebec, and Prince Edward Island saw smaller gains. Newfoundland and Labrador saw the most significant decline in population: 7 per cent, the biggest drop in the province’s history. The Yukon and Northwest Territories, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and—for the first time— Nova Scotia, all saw a population decline. Urbanization The trend for Canadians to move to urban centres continued. As of 2001, 79.4 per cent of Canadians lived in cities of 10 000 or more. Two-thirds of these lived in Canada’s 27 largest metropolitan areas. Canadian demographers began to speak of “doughnuts,” suburban communities that ring major cities. In most of these areas, such as Toronto, the population in the core grew more slowly than in the surrounding area. In some, like Regina, the city’s population actually declined by 1.2 per cent while the surrounding area grew by 10 per cent. Four major metropolitan areas accounted for fully one-half of Canada’s urban dwellers. These were: • the Golden Horseshoe (the west end of Lake Ontario) • Montreal and its surroundings • lower mainland of British Columbia • the Calgary-Edmonton Corridor An Aging Population Baby boomers, those Canadians born between 1946 and 1966, make up over 30 per cent of the total population (9.4 million). The national median age—the age where half the population is older and half is younger—rose from 35.3 in 1996 to 37.6 in 2001. In 2001, for every person aged 55 to 64, there were only 1.4 persons aged 15 to 24. The number of Canadians aged 80 or older rose by 41 per cent to 932 000 between 1991 and 2001. During the same period, the number of Canadians aged four and under rose by 11 per cent to 1.7 million. CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 37 Families and Marital Status Definition Empty-nesters are older couples whose children have left the family home; DINKs are couples who have chosen not to have children (Double Income No Kids). “The census figures confirm Canada has been smart in entrenching a policy that brings more immigrants proportionately than even the United States, and is already producing more citizens by naturalization than by birth.” — Haroon Siddiqui, Toronto Star, July 21, 2002 The number of households in Canada rose by 6.9 per cent since 1996, to 11.6 million. The number of “traditional” households of four or more (mother, father, two-plus children), however, declined from 33 per cent of the total in 1981 to 25 per cent in 2001. Twenty-five per cent of households consist of only one person; 12.5 per cent of the Canadian population lives alone. Frances Kobin, a U.S. demographer, has called this trend toward “solitary households” the greatest change in living arrangements of the last century. In 1981, 83 per cent of all families included a married couple. In 2001, that figure had dropped to 70 percent. In 1981, 84 per cent of children under 14 lived with both (married) parents; by 2001, it was 68 per cent. The number of couples with no children under 25 at home rose from 34 per cent in 1981 to 41 per cent of all families in 2001. Many of these were empty-nesters; but a significant number were DINKs. From 1981 to 2001, the number of common-law households grew from 6 to 14 per cent. Immigration and Visible Minorities Between 1991 and 2001 1.8 million new immigrants came to Canada. The highest percentage of the population (18.4 per cent) since 1931 reported being foreign-born: 5.4 million people. Australia, at 22 per cent, is the only country in the world with a higher percentage of foreign-born residents. Sixty per cent of new immigrants reported speaking neither English nor French at home, and 9.4 per cent reported no knowledge of either official language. More than half of the new immigrants to Canada settled in Ontario. Most immigrants to Canada settled in urban areas. “Immigrants move where they have family, friends, networks,” says Doug Norris of Statistics Canada (National Post, October 23, 2002). Between 1996 and 2001, 445 000 immigrants settled in the Toronto area. Another 180 000 chose the area around Vancouver. Four million people identified themselves as members of visible minorities. This is 13.4 per cent of the total population of Canada. In 1981, visible minorities made up 4.7 per cent of the population. They now represent 73 per cent of new immigrants. Labour Force Activity The greatest job growth in the period from 1991 to 2001 was in computer specialists, and included a large spin-off of low-skill workers in call centres. The most common job for women was in sales. The most common job for men was truck driving. However, if all jobs in information technology (IT) were combined, IT had the highest number of employees. The greatest potential for new job creation is predicted to be in health care and social services (partly in response to an aging population). Of the 15.6 million jobs in the labour force, 2.5 million were ones that normally required a university education— up 33 per cent since 1991 The work force is getting older. The average age of a worker was 39 in 2001, up from 37.1 in 1991. The median age for working-age individuals (those 20 to 64 years old) saw its biggest 10-year increase since 1921—from 38.1 in 1991 to 41.3 in 2001. Many predict it will reach 43.7 in 2011. Fifteen per cent of the work force of 15.6 million people is within 10 years of retirement. CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 38 New immigrants were responsible for 70 per cent of the labour growth over the decade. Problems and Opportunities The demographic trends identified by the 2001 census identify both problems likely to face Canadians in the future, and opportunities for Canada’s advancement as a nation. Some trends, in fact, present both problems and opportunities. Activity From the information given, identify five trends that you feel are particularly significant for Canada’s future. Enter these on the left side of the table, and explain in the appropriate box why you feel the trend highlights a problem or an opportunity—or both. Compare your results with those of the other members of the class. 2001 Census Trends Problems to Solve Opportunities for Canada In your opinion, which trend is most important? Why? CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 39 CENSUS 2001: CANADA’S CHANGING FACE YV Toronto and the Challenge to the Cities Did you know . . . Torontonians come from 169 different countries? The city has residents from 500 different ethnic groups consisting of at least 5000 people. The Toronto Public Library has books in over 100 languages and maintains active collections in 39 languages When the City of Toronto amalgamated, it took as its new motto “Diversity Our Strength.” According to Statistics Canada, Toronto now has the highest percentage of foreign-born residents in the world. It only took one generation for a city with an almost exclusively white population to become one of the most diverse cities in the world. Of the Greater Toronto Area’s 4.6 million people, 1.7 million— 36.8 per cent—are visible minorities. Minorities will likely soon dominate the city’s population. “We are seeing a progressive diversification of the Canadian population over time, and eventually Toronto will become a majority minority city,” says Jeffrey Reitz, a University of Toronto sociology professor (Toronto Star, January 22, 2003). In general, urban centres are magnets for new immigrants. Twelve per cent of new immigrants settle in Montreal, 15 per cent in Vancouver, and 48 per cent in Toronto. Most new immigrants prefer living in cities like Toronto because most new immigrants (especially refugees) are poor. Toronto offers more services for immigrants and poor people, such as cheaper rental housing and public transportation, than do the surrounding suburban or rural areas. While many new immigrants are highly skilled and well-educated newcomers who are able to join established immigrant communities, their experiences are not always the smoothest when they settle in Canada. Myrlene Martin’s Story Myrlene Martin is a Filipina who immigrated to Canada with her family in 1998. A registered nurse with more than 12 years experience in the Philippines and Saudi Arabia, she found that her foreign qualifications were not readily accepted in Toronto. Instead, she found a job on the manufacturing line of a computer maker. “Nurses, dentists, doctors, engineers—every aspect of the professions started at Celestica (Inc.) when I was there” (Toronto Star, February 11, 2003). Before Celestica, Martin held jobs in a burger chain and a boutique. A pilot program sponsored by the Ontario government and area hospitals enabled her to upgrade her qualifications and get work at the Hospital for Sick Children. Other immigrants to Toronto have not been as fortunate as Martin. Royson James, a columnist for the Toronto Star, has written of the large number of immigrants who “feel despair at having their accreditations rejected, their achievements from other lands unrecognized, and their professional skills go unused in this so-called welcoming country. The word is going out, back to the homelands of the world, that if you come to Canada, you might have to turn in your stethoscope for a cab licence” (Toronto Star, March 25, 2002). Immigration has also placed a strain on the Toronto school system. One in four children in Toronto has immigrated during the past 10 years; half of these speak a language other than English at home. Instruction in English as a Second Language has become a critical need. At the same time the school board has been forced to cut its budget drastically. Toronto currently spends about $26million per year on services for immi- CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 40 Cities are the locus for the problems of real life, but they don’t have the economic clout or the political expertise to solve them.” — Frank Graves, Ekos Research (Toronto Star, March 23, 2002) During the period 1996-2001, federal revenues rose by 36 per cent; provincial revenues by 26 per cent; municipal revenues by seven per cent. grants. It could easily spend far more. While the financial pressures on Toronto (and other Canadian cities) are extensive, the census has shown that immigration services are the most significant. Government Responsibility Under the current system, the federal government selects Canada’s immigrants without any consultation with the cities in which they will settle. Toronto, like other cities, has seen provincial caps on the taxes it can raise, the offloading of provincial responsibilities, and shrinking intergovernmental transfers. There is no mechanism for official discussion of these issues among the various levels of government. In fact, the federal government is quick to blame the provinces and cite a need for constitutional change before it can intervene. Toronto Star columnist James Travers is only one of many commentators calling for a change in the way Canada’s cities are governed. He calls the cities “national economic engines” that are dependent on their host provinces and distanced from their own tax bases. They have far fewer powers than cities in the U.S. and Europe, and few sources of revenue. Many of these same commentators expect that the lessons of the 2001 census will force governments to re-examine the role of cities in Canada’s economy. Cities need additional ways of raising revenue to meet the needs of all their residents. Discussion Toronto’s revenue problems are hardly unique. What are the special demands made for program funding in your community? What programs have been modified? What new programs have been added as a result of funding decisions over the past few years? CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 41 CENSUS 2001: CANADA’S CHANGING FACE YV Planning for the Future The 2001 Census has identified many of the challenges that Canadians must face in coming years. While these challenges may seem almost overwhelming, they also provide opportunities for Canadians and their governments to take action now to anticipate future problems and plan for effective solutions. As Daniel Girard has written in the Toronto Star, public discussion of solutions to solve these problems “will . . . force older people to think about the country they want to leave to the next generation and give younger people an opportunity to better shape their destiny.” An aging population and the possibility of a real population decline are the causes of many of the challenges facing Canada. Current fertility rates are not enough to prevent a population decline. On average, Canadian women are giving birth to 1.5 children during their lifetime; a birth rate of 2.1 is required just to keep the population steady. Meanwhile, as the population ages, some very basic questions have to be asked by governments. Who will look after this aging population? How will we finance their needs? How must governments adjust their spending on infrastructure—for example, do we need to begin to think in terms of fewer schools and more hospitals? Two areas seem to be of fundamental concern to most analysts: the labour force and immigration. The Labour Force By 2011, 20 per cent of baby boomers, Canada’s largest demographic group, will be 61 or older. As they retire, there will be a huge demand for new workers to take their place. Meanwhile, however, the number of young people entering the work force has dropped considerably from 20 years ago: In 1981, there were 3.7 entrants per retiree; in 2001, the number was 2.7 entrants per retiree. Most experts predict that several industries will be hit with a significant shortage of workers within a decade. The C. D. Howe Institute identifies health and education as two of the largest problem areas for finding sufficient workers. Many industries will rely almost exclusively on immigrants to fill jobs. Over the previous decade, new immigrants accounted for 70 per cent of Canada’s labour growth. At the same time, Canadians have made it more difficult for new immigrants to find a job. In 2001, only 65.8 per cent of recent immigrants (those who came to Canada within the last five years) were employed, whereas 81.8 per cent of those born in Canada were able to find employment. Several suggestions have been made to help ease the potential crisis. These include raising the retirement age to nearly 70 from the current 65, and improving opportunities for education, training, and retraining for workers. Governments and industries also need to increase productivity. As we come to rely more and more on immigration to sustain our labour force, we need to make sure that immigrants are permitted to practise in the professions and trades for which they were trained. This will require assistance with professional and trade certification requirements, and the prevention of hiring discrimination. CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 42 “Right now, we have people who could be working in the medical field who are driving cabs or cleaning buildings.” — Loleen Berdahl, acting president, the Canada West Foundation, in the Toronto Star, July 20, 2002 “Race relations is going to become a more central issue in Canadian society in the future; I think that’s really a foregone conclusion.” — Jeffery Reitz, professor of immigration studies, University of Toronto, in the National Post, January 21, 2003 Immigration and Visible Minorities It is expected that, by 2016, one in every five Canadians will be a member of a visible minority. Visible minorities are already in the majority in two large Canadian communities: Richmond, British Columbia (59 per cent), and Markham, Ontario (56 per cent). In the future, Canada will be competing with other developed countries facing actual population declines. At the moment, Canada has a real advantage because of its historical willingness to openly accept new immigrants and its reputation as a friendly, welcoming nation. However the picture is not rosy for all immigrants. Toronto Star columnist Haroon Siddiqui identified in a March 17, 2002, article several disturbing developments in the situation of Toronto’s immigrant community. These included the failure of provincial regulatory bodies to allow immigrant professionals to practise; a steady decline in immigrant incomes; and the growth of poverty in Toronto, especially among people of colour. A study by Michael Orenstein of York University backs this up. He found that recent immigrants to the city are taking longer than previous groups to settle, to get jobs with good incomes, and to move up the economic scale. Almost every one of the poorest groups in the city is a visible minority, and there is ample evidence that they face a significant amount of discrimination in the labour market. A decline in fertility rates, an aging population and labour force, and the need for substantial numbers of immigrants are all components of the same equation. Canada has committed itself to building a multicultural society; now it must work to ensure that that society works for all its members. Discussion In the video, Daniel Drache of York University responds to the idea that Canada is creating two different societies: an urban, multicultural one and a rural, unicultural one. He suggests the possibility of real conflicts between the new “two solitudes.” Do you think this is a realistic scenario for Canada’s future? How might Canada avoid this problem? CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 43 CENSUS 2001: CANADA’S CHANGING FACE YV Your Community Profile Statistics Canada has published Community Profiles for all Canadian communities on its Web site at www.statcan.ca.. Once you have entered the site, choose English or French as your preferred language. You can immediately choose the Community Profiles button to view them. You may also access the profiles under the Census button. A note to teachers: The StatsCan Web site includes a Teacher’s Kit with an excellent section, aimed at secondary schools, on designing a survey. This would be helpful in assisting students to plan and conduct any survey, not just a censustype one. Canadian residents who received the 59-question “long form” for the 2001 census were asked a wide variety of questions. Some of the most important ones were designed to help governments understand the makeup of the Canadian population and to plan for social and cultural assistance. These included questions of ethnicity, language, and national origin. The following page adapts some of the questions asked on the census questionnaire. Depending on to whom the questions are administered, you can develop a community profile of: Your Class—if each student answers the form; Your Grade—if your class determines a simple method for ensuring that each student receives and completes a form; Your School—if the class is prepared to undertake a major survey and the extensive sorting and collating of responses resulting from a large survey. Please remember that all responses should be kept confidential, and no individual data should be released (all census employees take a legal oath to preserve in perpetuity the confidentiality of all information received). Once all information has been received, and a small group of volunteers has collated the responses, you will be able to compare the results from your “micro-community” with those of the larger community reported on the Statistics Canada Web site. Discussion Are the results you received similar to those reported for the larger community? If there are differences, what factors—age, school location, economic conditions—might explain them? CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 44 A Census Questionnaire Please answer all of the following questions to the best of your knowledge and ability. 1. Where were you born? __ Born in Canada: Specify province or territory __________________ __ Born outside Canada: Specify country _________________________ 2. Of what country are you a citizen? __ Canada by birth __ Canada by naturalization __ Other country: Specify ______________________________ 3. Are you now, or have you ever been a landed immigrant? __ No __ Yes 4. Can you speak English or French well enough to conduct a conversation? __ English only __ French only __ Both English and French __ Neither English nor French 5. What language, other than English or French, can you speak well enough to conduct a conversation? __ None OR __ Specify other language(s) _____________________________ 6. What language do you speak most often at home? __ English __ French __ Other: Specify _____________________ 7. What is the language that you first learned at home in childhood and still understand? __ English __ French __ Other: Specify ________________________________ 8. To which ethnic or cultural groups did your ancestors belong? (For example: Canadian, French, English, Chinese, Italian, German, Scottish, Irish, Cree, Micmac, Métis, Inuit, East Indian, Ukrainian, Dutch, Filipino, Jewish, Jamaican, Vietnamese, Lebanese, Chilean, Somali, etc.) Specify as many as applicable: 9. Where were each of your parents born? Father: __ Born in Canada __ Born outside Canada: Specify country _____________________ Mother: __ Born in Canada __ Born outside Canada: Specify country _____________________ CBC News in Review • March 2003 • Page 45
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