TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE (2001) 95,637-650 A meta-analysis using individual patient data of trials comparing artemether with quinine in the treatment of severe falciparum malaria The Artemether-Quinine Meta-analysis Study Group+ Abstract We conducted a meta-analysis using individual patient data from randomized controlled trials comparing artemether and quinine in severe falciparum malaria. Eleven trials were identified, of which 8 were clearly randomized. Original individual patient data on 1919 patients were obtained from 7 trials, representing 85% of the patients in the original 11 studies. Overall there were 136 deaths among the 961 patients treated with artemether, compared with 164 in the 958 treated with quinine [14% vs 17%, odds ratio (95% confidence interval) 0.8 (0.62 to 1.02), P= 0.081. There were no differences between the 2 treatment groups in coma recovery or fever clearance times, or the development of neurological sequelae. However, the combined ‘adverse outcome’ of either death or neurological sequelae was significantly less common in the artemether group [odds ratio (95% CI) 0.77 (0.62 to 0.96), P= 0.021, and treatment with artemether was associated with significantly faster parasite clearance [hazard ratio (95% CI) 0.62 (0.56 to 0.69), P < O*OOl]. In subgroup analyses artemether was associated with a significantly lower mortality than quinine in adults with multisystem failure. In the treatment of severe falciparum malaria artemether is at least as effective as quinine in terms of mortality and superior to quinine in terms of overall serious adverse events. There was no evidence of clinical neurotoxicity or any other major sideeffects associated with its use. malaria, Plusmodium fulciparum, severe disease, chemotherapy, artemether, quinine, meta-analysis, individual patient data, neurotoxicity, sequelae Keywords: nin Introduction The Cinchona alkaloids were introduced for the treatment of malaria over 3 centuries ago. Quinine remained the mainstay of treatment for malaria until the introduction of safer, more effective, synthetic antimalarials, the most important of which was chloroquine. With the extensive spread of chloroquine resistance since the early 196Os, quinine (and its diastereomer quinidine) once again became the standard treatment for severe malaria. However, quinine has a number of drawbacks, including a relatively narrow therapeutic ratio and the development of low-grade resistance in Plasmodium falciparum. In uncomplicated malaria, resistance manifests itself as prolonged parasite clearance and increased recrudescence rates; the effects on treatment efficacy in severe malaria are less clear, but eventually resistance leads to an increase in mortality, and may also increase permanent neurological morbidity. More than a thousand years before the curative powers of Cinchona bark became known to European explorers and physicians, qinghao (sweet wormwood) was in use in China as a herbal remedy for fever (HONG, AD 340). It was not until the 1970s that Chinese scientists identified the active antimalarial ingredient, qinghaosu (extract of qinghao), or artemisi- Address for correspondence: Nicholas Day? Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Climcal Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, Headington, Oxford OX3 9DU, UK; phone +44 (0) 1865 220970, fax +44 (0) 1865 220984, e-mail [email protected] ‘Artemether-Quinine Writing Committee Meta-analysis Study Group Kasia Stepniewska, Nicholas Day, Abdel Babiker, David Lalloo, David Warrell, Piero Olliaro, Nicholas White (Chair) Statistical Secretariat Kasia Stepniewska, Abdel Babiker, Paul Gamer Advisorv Groub Nicholas Day; Tim Pete, Peter Winstanley, Michael Boele van Hensbroek, David Lalloo, Nicholas White Investigators and other participants ($not included above) Martin Danis, Cathy Davies, Tran Tinh Hien, Juntra KarbWang, Dominic Kwiatkowski, Kevin Marsh, Heather McIntosh, Malcolm Molyneux, Steven Murphy, Andrew Seaton, Terrie Taylor, Bill Watkins. (QINGHAOSU ANTIMALARIAL COORDINATING 1979). This was a sesauiteruene lactone seroxide, a che&cal structure hiderto -mknown in &ology. Artemisinin and its derivatives artemether and artesunate (collectively referred to here as QHS) have been shown to be the most rapidly acting of all antimalarial drugs in terms of clearance of parasitaemia. This finding led to the initiation of clinical trials in Africa and in Asia comparing artemisinin derivatives with quinine for the treatment of severe malaria. The aim of these trials was usually to assessdifferences in mortality, neurological sequelae and serious toxic effects between the 2 drugs. The individual results have been largely inconclusive, with no one trial sufficiently powered to show a moderate but clinically important effect on these primary outcomes. For example the 2 largest trials would have been able to detect only a 50% reduction in mortality (16% vs 8%). While most of the studies were underway, enthusiasm for artemether (the most commonly evaluated of the parenteral derivatives) was tempered by the finding in animal studies of an unusual pattern of neurotoxicity and some evidence of cardiotoxicity with artemether, and the closely related compound arteether. By then hundreds of thousands of patients had been treated with the artemisinin derivatives without any reports of such toxic effects occurring in humans. Potential neurotoxicity in a drug used to treat a disease commonly associated with coma may be difficult to assess.Again the clinical trials yielded mixed results; whereas an early study reported a reduction in coma duration with artemether, in the 2 largest studies artemether was associated with coma prolongation. To establish reliably the magnitude of the differences between these 2 antimalarial treatments in mortality and major complication rates, including time-to-event variables such as coma clearance, a meta-analysis of individual patient data from all relevant trials was undertaken. The primary objective of this meta-analysis was to compare the quinine and artemether treatments with respect to mortality. The secondary aims were comparisons of the 2 treatments with respect to neurological sequelae, parasite clearance, fever clearance and coma recovery. GROUP, Methods Identification of trills and collection of data We planned to include in the meta-analysis all known, published or unpublished, properly rando- THE ARTEMETHER-QUININEMETA-ANALYSIS STUDYGROUP 638 mized trials comparing quinine and artemether in severe malaria. The identification of trials was achieved (i) through discussions with an international panel of malaria clinical investigators, (ii) throunh a search of the National Librarv of Medi’ ’ tine GedLine database, and (iii) with reference to trials identified previously by the Cochrane Collaboration. Letters explaining the nature of the meta-analysis and requesting collaboration were sent to the Principal Investigators of all these trials. Principal Investigators were also asked to identify any other relevant trials they knew of or were involved in. All investigators were offered full collaboration as part of the ArtemetherQuinine Meta-analysis Study Group. Individual patient data from the original databaseswere requested for an extensive set of clinical and laboratory variables. These variables were defined a ~riori bv the Advisorv Committee of the Group following discussions at a preliminary meeting of the clinical investigators. A wide range of admission variables, categorical outcome variables, and the raw original serial measurements of coma score, temperature, and parasite counts were included. DejGtition of end-points and explanatoy variables Five endpoints were studied: death, neurological sequelae, parasite clearance, coma clearance and fever clearance. We also defined a derived ‘adverse outcome’ variable, combining death and neurological sequelae. ‘Death’ was defined as any death attributable to the current episode of malaria infection. The definition of neurological sequelae varied between studies, mainly because of variation in the length of patient follow-up. This variability did not invalidate the analysis as the definition of the endpoint was uniform within each study, and patients were compared directly only within studies. Only patients who survived to discharge were analysed for sequelae. There was considerable variability between trials in the definitions of ‘time-to-event’ variables, i.e., coma recovery, fever and parasite clearance times. For this reason, and also to enable estimation by survival analysis of a summary effect across trials, these measurements for each patient were rederived from the raw data in accordance with uniform definitions. Parasite clearance was defined as occurring at the time of the first negative blood smear. Coma clearance was attained if a Blantyre coma score of 5 (for young children) or a Glasgow coma score of 15 was recorded for at least 24 h. Only patients with an initial Glasgow coma score below 11 or Blantyre coma score below 4 were included in the analysis of this endpoint. Similarly, fever clearance was defined as the time after which the temperature remained normal (axillary temperature below 37.5”C, or rectal temperature below 38°C) for at least 24 h. Only patients with a raised initial temperature were included in the analysis of this endpoint. All ‘time-to-event’ measurements were taken from the time of randomization. Treatment effects were also studied for patient subgroups pre-defined by the following characteristics: age (child or adult), sex, severe anaemia (haematocrit <15% or haemoglobin <5 g/dL), renal failure (serum creatinine 1265 umol/L). low blood nressure (svstolic blood pressure <‘SOmmHg), cerebral malaria (Bl&tyre coma score <3 or Glasgow coma score <8), hypoglycaemia (blood elucose c2.2 mmol/L), jaundice (serum bilirubin >2.5-mg/dL or clinical ‘jaundice if bilirubin not measured). These subgroup analyses were specified a priori by the Advisory Group. The purpose of these subgroup analyses was to explore any heterogeneity of treatment effect between groups of patients with differing baseline characteristics (in terms of demography or clinical presentation) and therefore potentially different treatment responses. Data checks Once these data were centrally located, randomization checks were carried out to ensure that even allocation to treatments took place across the week and across the whole accrual period. These were achieved by tabulating the number of patients assigned to each drug by day of the week, and by plotting the cumulative number of patients assigned to each drug as the trial progressed. Individual data were also checked for transmission errors and general quality. For this purpose, all published analyses of the data were repeated in their entirety, and any problems encountered were resolved with the individual trialists. Statistical methods The objective of the primary analysis was to obtain combined estimates of the treatment effect for various endpoints. For binary endpoints (death, sequelae), summary odds ratios (ORs) were calculated using the method of Peto-Mantel-Haenszel, based on the difference between the number of observed (0) and expected (E) events in the artemether treatment group (EARLYBREASTCANCERTRIAIJSTS'COLLABORATIVE GROUP, 1990). E was calculated from the 2 X 2 table giving the numbers with and without the event by treatment group, assuming a hypergeometric distribution. Then O-E and its variance V were calculated for each trial separately. These were summed to obtain a ‘grand total’ O-E and V for the overview. The summary log odds ratio is (0-E)/V with variance l/V. In this way patients in different trials were not compared directly. For ‘time-to-event’ analyses, hazard ratio (HR) estimates for each trial were calculated using Cox regression, and an overall estimate was calculated using stratified Cox regression (KALEFLEISCH 8z PRENTICE, 1980). For both types of endpoint, tests of significance of treatment effect were based on O-E (EARLY BREAST CANCER‘IRKLISTS’ COLLABORATIVEGROUP, 1990). However, for time-to-event analyses (parasite, fever and coma clearance), E was calculated from the logrank statistic. Two-sided significance levels are reported. Because there was an imbalance between the numbers allocated to each treatment group in some trials, an adjusted total number of patients for each outcome was calculated for the artemether group given the O-E, V, and observed totals for the quinine group, and assuming the same number of patients in each group. A test for heterogeneity of the real effect of the treatment regimens in the trials was performed using a method based on O-E and V for binary endpoints (EARLY BREAST CANCER TRTALISTS’ COLLABORATIVE GROUP, 1990), and Cox regression models for time-toevent endnoints (KALBFLEISCH& PRENTICE, 1980). Results*of the-separate trials and the overview were presented graphically for each endpoint. The position of a solid square indicates the effect of treatment in that trial and a horizontal line indicates the 99% confidence limits for the odds or hazard ratio. The sizes of the solid squares are directly proportional to the amount of information each trial contains (the statistical weight of each trial). The overview result is represented by a diamond-shaped symbol, which is centred around the overall odds or hazard ratio estimate and covers the 95% confidence interval (95% CI). The 99% confidence intervals were chosen for individual trials to compensate for the multiple comparisons being made. All the above analyses were repeated for subgroups of patients defined by the characteristics described earlier, to examine whether the characteristics had any influence on the treatment effect. Additionally, for time-toevent endpoints, adjusted survival graphs by treatment group were obtained (EARLY BREASTCANCERTRIALISTS' COLLABORATIVEGROUP, 1990). Conditional logistic regression was used for multivariate modelling of factors affecting outcome. All analyses were on the 639 META-ANALYSISOFARTEMETHER-QUININEFORSEVEREMALARIA clearance or time to parasite clearance. However, for fever clearance significant heterogeneity did exist between studies, regions and age-groups (all P < 0.001). basis of intention to treat. Therefore we included all patients who were randomized and had confirmed falciparum malaria. All analyses were performed using the statistical programme Stata (STATACORP., 1997). Mortality The overall mortality was 16% (300 of 1919 patients). There were 136 deaths observed among 961 patients who were given artemether (14%) and 164 deaths among 958 patients who were given quinine (17%) [summary OR (95% CI) 0.8 (0.62 to 1.02), P= 0.081. Figure 1 shows estimated odds ratios and confidence intervals for each study and for the overview. Results of the subset analyses for mortality are presented in Figure 2. Although there was no evidence of heterogeneity between subgroups, artemether was found to be associated with lower mortality than quinine in the subgroup of Asian patients [OR (99% CI) 0.59 (0.35 to l.Ol), P=O.O12], adults [0.59 (0.35 to l.Ol), P= 0.0121, males [0.68 (0.44 to 1.04), P= 0.0191, patients with renal failure [0.36 (0.16 to O.SO), P= O.OOl], patients with hypoglycaemia [0.53 (0.27 to 1.05), P= 0.0161 and patients with jaundice [0.5 1 (0.29 to 0.90), P= 0.0021. It should be noted that these subgroup-defining variables are not mutually independent, as the majority of patients with multisystem failure are adults from Asia. After adjusting for admission hypoglycaemia or renal failure, overall odds ratio for treatment effect decreased slightly to 0.74, while adjusting for other variables changed the overall odds ratio very little (Table 4). In a conditional logistic regression model adjusting for renal failure, jaundice and hypoglycaemia simultaneously, treatment with artemether was associated with an odds ratio (95% CI) for fatal outcome of 0.69 (0.50 to 0.96) (P = 0.026). Results Trials ident$Yed In total 11 trials comparing artemether and quinine in severe malaria were identified (MYINT & SHWE, 1987; SHWE et al., 1988; WIN et al., 1992; WALKER et al., 1993; KAR~WANG et al., 1995; DANIS et al., 1996; HIEN et al., 1996; MURPHY et al., 1996; VAN HENSBROEK etal., 1996; SEATON etal., ~~~~;TAYLoR etal., 1998) (Table 1). All trials were open label except the Viet Nam study, which was double blind, and one of the Burmese studies, which was single blind. Two published Burmese studies paired patients to receive alternate treatments and from the published reports it was not possible to establish whether these were randomized trials (MYINT & SHWE, 1987; SHWE et al., 1988). In the later Burmese (Myanmar) study, only some of the quinine patients were randomized (WIN et al., 1992). African studies enrolled only children, except for the multicentre study in West Africa which included 74 adults (28%). All Asian studies were on adults. We received individual patient data from 7 of the trials, representing 86% (1947 of 2264) of the patients in the identified studies, and it is these trials which formed the central part of this meta-analysis. Entry criteria and drug regimens for these trials are given in Table 2. All of these studies were fully randomized. A number of patients were excluded from the original analyses in each of the trials (see Table 1 for numbers). The most common reason for exclusion was non-compliance with either inclusion criteria or drug regimen. We included in the overview as many of these patients as possible and as a result 60 of 88 excluded patients were added to the data set (3 patients from The Gambia study, 38 from Kenya and 19 from Malawi). After these re-inclusions there were 1919 patients with individual patient data available from the 7 studies (representing 85% of the patients in all 11 studies). Table 3 summarizes baseline characteristics for these studies. Tests for heterogeneity in the trial results revealed no significant heterogeneity between the 7 studies, between the 2 regions (Af?ica/Asia), or between adults and children for mortality, sequelae, time to coma Table 1. All known trials of quinine and artemether Neurolo@cal sequelae Neur&og&l sequelae were assessed at discharge in trials in Viet Nam. Kenva. Panua New Guinea. Malawi and The Gambia; at 7&days*after admission ;n Thailand, and at 14 days in West Africa. In Papua New Guinea, only hearing complications were recorded; in all other trials a similar range of complications was checked. Neurological sequelae were observed in 11% of patients (172 out of 1572 patients who survived). There was no significant difference between treatments in the incidence of sequelae [lo% in the artemether group (81/807 patients) and 12% in the quinine group in severe malaria Age-group Years of accrual Trial design >3 months > 14 years > 16 years < 12 years > 12 years 1993-94 199 l-96 1992 1992-94 1992-95 Open label Double blind Open label Open label Open label 282 561 102 200 40 14 1 5 39 7 Children l-9 years 1992-94 1992-94 Open label Open label 183 579 19 3 Published datab Burma (Myint & Shwe, 1987) Burma (Shwe et al., 1988) > 12 years >12 years 1985 1987 Myanmar (Win et al., 1992) Nigeria (Walker et al., 1993) > 17 years <5 years 1989-91 1991-92 Patients paired Patients paired according to age, sex and complications Uni-blind Open label Country (reference) Individual patient data West Africa (Danis et al., 1996) Viet Nam (Hien et al., 1996) Thailand (Karbwang et al., 1995) Kenya (Murphy et al., 1996) Papua New Guinea (Seaton et al., 1998) Malawi (Taylor et al., 1998) The Gambia (Van Hensbroek et al., 1996) “Number of patients excluded when data were originally analysed. bNo individual patient data were received on these studies. Number randomized Number excluded” 62 60 117 99 59 640 THE ARTEMETHER-QUININE META-ANALYSIS STUDY GROUP Table 2. Entry criteria and drug regimens for trials pared with quinine for severe falciparum malaria Country Entry criteria West Africa l l l l Viet Nam l l l Thailand l l l l Kenya l l l Papua New Guinea l l l Malawi l l l l The Gambia l l l included in the meta-analysis of artemether com- Study drug dose regimen Age >3months Asexual l? falciparum parasitaemia Temperature >38”C One or more of the following: GCS <8 (or Blantyre score <3), repeated generalized convulsions, severe anaemia, pulmonary oedema or respiratory distress, hyperglycaemia, massive haemoglobinuria, acidosis, or to have vomited at least 3 times in the 24 h preceding admission Quinine dihydrochloride: loading dose 20 mg/kg, maintenance 10 mg/kg” Artemether: for bodyweight s50 kg, loading dose 3.2 mg/kg, maintenance dose 1.6 mg/kg; for bodyweight >50 kg, 1oadinF dose 160 mg, maintenance dose 80 mg Age > 14 years Asexual P. falciparum parasitaemia One or more of the followine: GCS <l 1; haematocrit <21yo/o+ parasitaemia > 100 OOO/mL; jaundice + parasitaemia > 100 OOO/mL; renal failure (creatinine >3 mg/dL); hypoglycaemia (glucose <40 mg/dL); hyperparasitaemia (X00 OOO/mL or 10%); haemodynamic shock (systolic BP <80 mmHg) Quinine dihydrochloride/sulphate: loading dose 20 mg/kg, maintenance dose 10 w/W Artemether: loading dose 4 mg/kg, maintenance dose 2 mg/kg” Age > 16 years Weight exceeding 40 kg Asexual I? falciparum parasitaemia One or more criteria of severe malaria: unarousable coma, severe anaemia, renal failure, pulmonary oedema, hypoglycaemia (glucose <40 mg/dL), spontaneous bleeding, repeated generalized convulsions, acidaemia, hyperparasitaemia Quinine dihydrochloride/sulphate: loading dose 20 mg/kg, maintenance dose 10 mg/kg Artemether: loading dose 160 mg daily, maintenance dose 80 mg daily Age <12 years Unarousable coma (Blantyre motor response <2) I? falciparum parasitaemia with fever Quinine dihydrochloride: loading dose 20 mg/kg, maintenance dose 10 mg/kg” Artemether: loading dose 3.2 mg/kg, maintenance dose 1.6 mg/kgb Age > 12 years Asexual I? falciparum parasitaemia Fulfilled one or more of the WHO criteria for severe or complicated malaria Quinine dihydrochloride: loading dose 20 mg/kg, maintenance dose 10 mg/kg” Artemether: loading dose 3.2 mg/kg, maintenance dose 1.6 mg/kgb Children Asexual l? falciparum parasitaemia Altered consciousness with a Blantyre coma score <2 No alternative or contributing explanation for coma Quinine sulphate: loading dose 20 mg/kg, maintenance dose 10 mg/kg” Artemether: loading dose 3.2 mg/kg, maintenance dose 1.6 mg/kgb Age l-9 years Blantyre coma score of s2 Asexual I? falci’arum parasitaemia Quinine dihydrochloridelsulphate: loading dose 20 mg/kg, maintenance dose 10 mg/kf Artemether: loading dose 3.2 mg/kg, maintenance dose 1.6 mg/kgb GCS, Glasgow coma score. “8 hourly; “daily. Quinine was given intravenously in the Kenya, Malawi, West Africa, Papua New Guinea and Thailand studies, and intramuscularly in The Gambia and Viet Nam studies. Artemether was always given intramuscularly. (91/765), OR (95% CI) 0.82 (059 to 1.15), P= 0.241. Estimated odds ratios and confidence intervals for each study and for the overview are presented in Figure 3. No differences between treatments were found in terms of subgroup effects (data not shown) or adjusted effects (Table 4). Combined adverse outcome: death or sequelae In total 472 ‘adverse outcomes’ were observed, 217 (23%) in patients treated with artemether and 255 (27%) in those treated with quinine [OR (95% CI) 0.77 (0.62 to 0.96), P= 0.021 (Fig. 4). On subgroup analysis the tality alone renal failure significantly ing quinine region, age and sex effects seen with morare not apparent, although patients with or with jaundice receiving artemether had fewer adverse outcomes than those receiv(Fig. 5). Parasite clearance Serial parasite measurements were available for 1542 patients. Artemether cleared parasitaemia more rapidly than quinine [HR 0.62, 0.56 to 0.69, P < 0.001, median (95% CI) clearance time 20 (16 to 24) h compared with 32 (28 to 32)] (Figs 6 and 7). This differ- characteristics of patients in trials (%) median (80% ICR) “Total number of patients with data available. bFor studies in West Africa, Viet Nam and Thailand haematocrit ‘An equivalent of the children’s Blantyre coma score was used. dEvaluated clinically as bilirubin was not measured. ICR, interquartile range; ND, not determined. Anaemia (%) Hypoglycaemia median (80% ICR) median (80% ICR) Jaundice (%) Haematocrit/haemoglobinb, Renal failure (%) Bilirubin [pal/L], BP <80 mmHg (%) Serum creatinine [pmol/L], Cerebral malaria (%) Parasite count [/pL] (X lOOO), median (80% ICR) Patients with follow-up Male(%) Age [years], median Coma score, median (80% ICR) Characteristic Table 3. Baseline 90.4 (0.9-675) 7 177 (97-513) 30 58.1 (17.1-246) 61 30 (18-41) 5 7 lo;q5 (6l-; 5) 560 76 (%) is given; otherwise haemoglobin (lOz974, 32 28.9 (12.2-41.5) 17 7 88.0 (8.0-470) 22 65 (35.4-98) 0 268 51 6.3 3/5 (22i4) Viet Nam in the overview West Africa included 4) (g/dL) is used. (19YI) 0 6 93.3 (7.7-523) 5 177 (88-513) 33 76.1 (25.7-274) 77 l&5 (3;; 97 90 Thailand (3.4Jii.2) 24 18 6d NL (4OY 11 00) 88.8 (2.2-889) 2k3 (1;;) 199 48 Kenya (12286) 55 10.6 (8-14.9) 0 7 323 (18.8-1400) 18 140 (100-690) 23 52;5c (1;;) Papua New Guinea 11 13d 8 (5.1-l 1.3) 9 1 ND (2115) 241 (3.2-691) 3 (;;a 1/25 51 183 Malawi (5.lY.5) 9 24 (;-;6l) (13280) 0 11 (2.p540) 1!i7 ‘PO;21 579 51 The Gambia 1853 1849 1574 1853 1478 1192 1559 1478 1885 1913 1919 1916 1915 1885 N” 642 THE ARTEMETHER-QUININE META-ANALYSIS STUDY GROUP Death Study Artemether Quinine O-E V P 81133 81135 0.006 3.78 0.98 Viet Nam 361284 471276 -6.09 17.70 0.15 Thailand 6147 17150 -5.14 4.43 0.01 5.68 0.30 West Africa Kenya 15/98 Papua New Guinea ll/lOl 2.20 1115 3118 -0.82 0.90 0.39 Malawi 10195 13188 -1.94 5.05 0.39 The Gambia 601289 65/290 -2.39 24.55 0.63 136/961 14 1641958 17 -14.13 62.08 0.08 Overall % Dead 0.1 1 2 3 Odds ratio Artemether better Quinine better Fig. 1. Individual patient data analysis of deaths, within trials and overall. The overview diamond represents 95% CI, whereas the error bars for each trial represent 99% CI. ence was also observed in nearly all subgroups of patients (data not shown). Coma clearance Serial measurements of coma score were available for 1421 patients with impairment of consciousness on study entry (Glasgow coma score <ll or Blantyre coma score ~4). Time to recovery from coma was not Table 4. Treatment effect adjusted (95% CI) and probability (p) Variable adjusted for Sex Blood pressure Renal failure Cerebral Anaemia Hypoglycaemia Jaundice Unadjusted NA, not applicable. Death 0.79 0.61-1.01 P = 0.060 0.78 0.61-1.01 P = 0.063 0.79 0*61-1.02 P = 0.066 0.74 0.58-0.96 P = 0,022 0.80 0.62- 1.03 P = 0.082 0.78 0.61-1.00 P = 0.051 0.74 057-0.96 P = 0.023 0.77 0.60-0.99 P= 0.041 0.80 0*62- 1.02 P = 0.080 for explanatory Sequelae 0.82 0.58-1.14 P = 0.238 0.81 0.58-1.14 P= 0.231 0.82 0.59-l-15 P = 0,243 0.80 0.57-l-12 P= 0.186 0.82 0.58-1.14 P = 0.242 0.82 O-58-1.14 P= 0.241 0.78 0.55-1.09 P= 0.145 0.83 0.59-1.16 P = O-272 0.82 0.58-1.14 P = 0.240 found to be significantly different for the 2 drugs [HR 1.09, 0.97 to 1.22, P= 0.12, medians 24 (24 to 30) and 23 (19 to 24) h for artemether and quinine respectively] (Figs 7 and 8). In the subset analyses the hazard ratio was consistently higher than unity (artemethertreated patients having longer coma durations) but the results were not statistically significant (data not shown). After adjusting for subgroup-defining variables variables: hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence Death or sequelae Parasite clearance Coma recovery 0.76 0.62-0.95 P= 0.016 0.76 0.61-0.95 P= 0.015 0.76 0~61-0.95 P= 0.016 0.73 0.58-0.9 1 0.61 0.55-0.68 P co.00 1 0.61 0.54-0.68 P <O*OOl 0.61 0*55-0.69 P co.00 1 0.61 0.54-0.68 P <O*OOl 0.61 0.54-0.68 P <o.oo 1 0.62 0.56-0.69 P <O.OOl 0.61 0*54-0.68 P<O*OOl 0.61 0.55-0.68 P <O.OOl 0.62 0.56-0.69 P <o.oo 1 1.09 0.97- 1.23 P = 0.005 0.78 0.63-0.97 P = 0.026 0.76 06-0.95 P= 0.014 0.73 0.58-0.92 P = 0.007 0.76 0.6 l-O.94 P= 0.013 0.79 0.64-0.98 P = 0.034 P = 0.099 1.09 0*97- 1.22 P= 0.124 1.08 0.96-1.21 P= 0.152 1.09 0.97-1.22 P= 0.135 NA interval Fever clearance l-01 0.89-1.14 P= 0.911 1.01 0.90-1.15 P = 0.742 1.00 0.89-1.14 P = 0.935 1.02 0.90-1.15 P = 0.779 1.02 0*90-1.15 P = 0.769 1.10 0.98-1.24 1.01 0.89-1.14 P = O-078 P = 0.888 1.01 0.90-1.15 P = 0.826 1.07 0.95-1.21 P = 0.201 1.10 O-98-1.23 1.02 0.90-1.16 P = 0.087 P = 0.705 1.09 0.97-l-22 P = 0.120 1.01 0*90-1.15 P = 0.807 META-ANALYSIS OF ARTEMETHER-QUININE 643 FOR SEVERE MALARIA Death O-E V Total A (%) Q (%) Region Africa Asia 19011229 15 16 -2.56 11 O/690 12 19 - 12.06 38.59 23.03 Age Child Adult 18711152 16 17 1 lo/764 11 17 -2.70 - 12.06 38.50 23.03 1211755 176/1159 16 13 16 18 -0.80 - 14.20 24.68 36.78 19711396 31/161 691359 12 16 20 16 23 -13.19 -2.66 41.17 18 1.54 791780 8 12 -8.19 17.22 214/1103 19 4133 2 20 20 -3.59 - 1.70 42.16 0.70 Sex Female Male Systolic BP >80 mmHg ~80 mmHg Missing Cerebral No Yes Missing Anaemia No Yes Missing Renal failure No Yes Missing Hypoglycaemia No Yes Missing 5.83 13.49 I I I I _ I I I I I 246/l 673 311178 20165 14 13 23 16 21 35 -9.71 -3.72 -1.81 51.62 6.17 2.96 18711272 14 15 -2.91 571206 531438 18 38 10 14 - 10.37 -4.30 37.50 10.03 11.52 18411592 10 13 -8.52 40.17 -9.21 13168 31 22 46 18 0.51 14.65 2.47 1211995 1081577 681344 12 12 14 18 24 20 -14.16 -1.93 25.53 21.29 13.04 300/1919 14 17 - 14.13 62.08 1001256 Jaundice No Yes Missing All participants 0.24 Odds ratio Artemether better Fig. 2. Subgroup analysis of deaths. A, artemether; Q, quinine. See ‘Statistical methods’ for description the hazard ratio remained very close to the unadjusted value, and no statistically significant differences were found (Table 4). Fever clearance Serial temperature measurements were available for Quinine better of methodology used. 1302 patients. No difference in the effect of the drugs was found on fever clearance [overall HR 1.01 (0.90 to 1*15), P= 0.81, medians 42 (32 to 48) and 48 (41 to 54) h for artemether and quinine respectively] (Figs 7 and 9). Adjustment for subgroup-defining variables had no material effect on the overall hazard ratio (Table 4). 644 THE ARTEMETHER-QUININE META-ANALYSIS STUDY GROUP Sequelae Study Artemether Quinine O-E V P West Africa 21125 21127 0.02 0.99 0.99 Viet Nam 31248 l/229 0.92 0.99 0.36 Thailand o/41 1133 -0.55 0.25 0,27 12165 18161 -3.48 5.75 0.15 -0.48 0.25 0.33 5.62 0.48 Kenya Papua New Guinea 0114 1115 Malawi 16185 11175 The Gambia 481229 571225 -4.96 20.22 0.27 Overall % Sequelae 81/807 911765 12 -6.88 34.08 0.24 10 I I I 0.1 1 1 I 2 3 1.66 Odds ratio Artemether better Quinine better Fig. 3. Individual patient data analysis of neurological sequelae, within trials and overall. The overview diamond represents 95% CI, whereas the error bars for each trial represent 99% CL Death or sequelae Study P Artemether Quinine O-E V West Africa 10/133 101135 0.07 4.64 0.97 Viet Nam 391284 481276 -5.12 18.40 0.23 6147 18150 -5.63 4.56 0.008 27180 29172 -0.58 10.11 0.41 Thailand Kenya Papua New Guinea 1115 Malawi 0.1 , , 7 1 -1.27 0.04 1.08 0.22 9.12 0.99 26195 24188 1081289 1221290 -6.80 34.72 0.25 , , 2;;/961 2;;/958 -19.28 82.64 0.019 2 3 The Gambia % Adverse outcome , Overall 4118 Odds ratio Artemether better Quinine better Fig. 4. Individual patient data analysis of ‘adverse outcomes’ (deaths or neurological sequelae), within trials and overall. The overview diamond represents 95% CI, whereas the error bars for each trial represent 99% CI. Non-individual patient data trials The mortality results using the published summary data from the 4 trials for which individual data were unavailable are shown in Figure 10. There is a significantly lower mortality associated with use of artemether in these studies. However, the reservations mentioned above concerning randomization in 3 of these trials should be borne in mind. Discussion The central result of this meta-analysis is that artemether treatment is associated with a trend towards a lower mortality compared with quinine, but this difference is not significant at the 5% level. There had been concern that a reduction in mortality might have been associated with an increase in the incidence of neurological sequelae but this was not found, and ‘adverse outcomes’ (combining mortality and sequelae) were less common in patients treated with artemether (P= O-02). Artemether was consistently associated with significantly faster clearance of parasitaemia than quinine, although there were no differences in treatment effects on fever clearance or coma recovery. Concerns over potential neurotoxicity with qinghaosu derivatives arose when pre-registration toxicity studies were performed on artemether during the US army and WHO-sponsored development of arteether. The results showed that both arteether and artemether 645 META-ANALYSIS OF ARTEMETHER-QUININE FOR SEVEREMALARIA Death or sequelae Total A Q O-E V Africa Asia 356/l 182 116/690 26 16 31 20 -9.58 -12.02 57.09 24.04 Age Child Region 35511108 28 33 -9.25 56.76 Adult 1171764 14 18 -12.50 24.29 Sex Female 2061736 24 29 -5.83 34.49 Male 26311131 21 25 -16.11 46.48 Systolic BP X30 mmHg 299/1363 19 24 -17.64 53.51 ~80 mmHg Missing 40/160 1331349 23 32 28 38 -2.64 -1.27 6.64 891767 37611069 11 30 14 36 -10.31 -7.83 19.28 59.47 7136 16 20 -1.70 0.70 39311641 451165 33166 21 27 49 25 33 56 - 14.49 -5.33 -2.21 69.30 7.49 No Yes 2841125 1 591206 19 33 23 39 -11.11 - IO.47 46.67 10.24 Missing 129/415 26 31 -3.39 21.76 Cerebral No Yes Missing Anaemia No Yes Missing Renal failure Hypoglycaemia No 46911556 17 21 - 15.09 59.06 Yes 3 1O/249 57 64 -9.21 13.49 Missing 143167 21 25 Jaundice No Yes Missing 2231950 1221575 1271347 19 22 31 23 27 37 -2.89 -15.80 -3.39 37.13 22.63 19.61 All 47211872 23 27 -19.28 82.64 0.68 3.26 I I I 0.1 I 1 I , 2 3 Odds ratio Artemether Fig. 5. Subgroup analysis of ‘adverse outcomes’ (deaths or neurological caused serious neurotoxicity in beagle dogs and this was confirmed subsequently in rats (BREWER et al., 1994), mice (NONTPRASERT et al., 1998) and monkeys (PETRAS et al., 1997; GENOVESE et al., 1998a, 1998b). These findings entered the public domain when most of the trials featured in this meta-analysis were under- better Quinine better sequelae). way. As no case of clear-cut neurotoxicity had been described amongst the hundreds of thousands of documented patients who had received qinghaosu drugs, the trials continued, although with increased vigilance and, in some cases, increased nervous system evaluation. Detecting drug neurotoxicity in a disease which itself 646 THE ARTEMETHER-QUININE Parasite META-ANALYSIS STUDY GROUP clearance Study MA-Ma* HR CI P -8 0.72 0.52 to 1.00 0.002 Viet Nam -18 0.65 0.52 to 0.82 CO.001 Thailand -24 0.58 0.32 to 1.04 0.007 -8 0.61 0.41 to 0.92 0.001 -12 0.50 0.18 to 1.37 0.058 -8 050 0.33 to 0.75 ‘Co.001 The Gambia -12 0.62 0.38 to 0.88 <O.OOl Overall -12 0.62 0.56 to 0.69 CO.001 West Africa Kenya Papua New Guinea Malawi Hazard ratio Artemether better Quinine better *Difference between medians. Fig. 6. Individual patient data analysis of parasite clearance times, within trials and overall. The overview diamond represents 95% CI, whereas the error bars for each trial represent 99% CI. (a) Days from Number hemether Quinine starung treannent at nsk 765 777 Number at risk Anemerher 707 Qumine 714 Number at nsk Anemether 667 QUiNlX 635 601 642 250 373 72 150 Days from 584 587 294 274 410 429 255 248 188 155 13 27 sramnS ~eatment 100 94 54 40 172 159 Days from 621 584 27 66 starting 135 100 111 72 46 21 37 17 28 IO treatment 82 49 67 34 57 32 45 22 37 15 Fig. 7. Kaplan-Meier plots of time-to-event outcome variables, calculated using individual patient original measurements. Time to (a) parasite clearance, (b) coma recovery, and (c) fever clearance. Circles, artemether; triangles, quinine. has serious neurological manifestations is difficult, but the finding of prolonged duration of coma in the artemether arm of the only double-blind artemetherquinine comparison generated further concern. It was unclear whether this was caused by a chance occurrence, was putatively neuroprotective coma, or artemether neurotoxicity. In the light of this uncertainty the results of the combined coma recovery survival analysis in the current meta-analysis are reassuring. Neurotoxicity in the animal models has affected particularly the brainstem centres involved in hearing, but no residual hearing abnormalities were documented in any of the trials-including those with audiometric testing. In addition the characteristic neuropathological features of toxicity have not been observed on close histological examination of the brainstems of patients who died following severe malaria treated with artemether (G. Turner, personal communication). The way in which the QHS class of drugs has been introduced into medicine has been unusual. The discovery of neurotoxicity in experimental animals followed the widespread use of these compounds in humans, and in these circumstances the detailed evaluation of clinical trials is critically important for assessment of the therapeutic ratio. Qinghaosu derivatives that can be given parenterally include artemether, arteether (both oil soluble), artesunate, and artelinic acid (both water soluble). Of these, only artemether and artesunate, which were synthesized and developed for clinical use by Chinese scientists, are currently in extensive clinical use. Only artemether has been studied systematically in severe malaria, and for this reason was chosen as the qinghaosu derivative representative in this meta-analysis. Subsequent animal studies have demonstrated that watersoluble QHS drugs such as artesunate are considerably less neurotoxic than oil-soluble derivatives such as artemether (NONTPRASERT et al., 1998; T. Brewer, personal communication). This observation suggests that artesunate might be preferred to artemether on META-ANALYSIS OF ARTEMETHER-QUININE 647 FOR SEVERE MALARIA Coma recovery HR CI P 0 0.98 0.70 to 1.36 0.82 18 1.39 0.97 to 1.99 0.013 0.46 0.18 to I.15 0.017 1.32 0.80 to 2.20 0.15 -28 0.72 0.07 to 7.34 0.71 -4 0.91 0.58 to 1.43 0.57 1.10 0.86 to 1.41 0.29 MA-MQ* Study West Africa Viet Nam Thailand -24 Kenya 5 Papua New Guinea Malawi The Gambia 8 Overall Artemether *Difference Hazard ratio better Quinine better between medians. Fig. 8. Individual patient data analysis of coma recovery times, within trials and overall. The overview diamond represents 95% CI, whereas the error bars for each trial represent 99% CI. Fever clearance Study MA-MP* HR CI P 0 1.05 0.72 to 1.55 0.70 Viet Nam 31 1.38 1.05 to 1.82 0.002 Thailand -5 0.75 0.34 to 1.64 0.33 Kenya -4 0.97 0.59 to 1.58 0.86 Papua New Guinea -28 0.31 0.09 to 1.10 0.008 Malawi -12 0.58 0.36 to 0.93 0.001 The Gambia -6 0.99 0.71 to 1.38 0.90 Overall -6 1.01 0.90 to 1.15 0.81 West Africa 0.1 1 2 3 Hazard ratio Artemether *Difference better Quinine better between medians. Fig. 9. Individual patient data analysis of fever clearance times, within trials and overall. The overview diamond represents 95% CI, whereas the error bars for each trial represent 99% CL 648 THEARTEMETHER-QUININJZMETA-ANALYSISSTUDYGROUP Death Q A O-E V P I Studies wnh IPD West Africa Viet Nam Thailand 81133 81135 3.78 0.98 361284 471276 -6.09 17.70 0.15 6147 17150 -5.14 4.43 0.01 5.68 0.30 0.90 0.39 15198 Kenya Papua New Guinea ll/lOl 1115 0.06 2.20 3/18 -0.82 Malawi 10195 13/88 -1.94 Gambia 601289 651290 -2.39 Overall 1361961 1641958 14.13 5.05 0.63 62.08 0.08 Studxs with published Burma ‘87 0130 2130 -1.00 0.49 Burma ‘85 013 1 2131 -1.00 0.49 7150 23167 -5.82 5.51 Nigeria 11152 13147 -1.61 4.58 Overall 181163 401175 -9.43 11.07 Myanmar 0.39 2455 data I I O!l ; Hazard Artemether better 1 :. Quinine better rauo Fig. 10. Comparison of individual patient data (IPD) analysis of deaths for the 7 trials for which these data were available, with an analysis of published data from the 4 trials from which individual patient data could not be obtained. The overview diamonds represent 95% CI, whereas the error bars for each trial represent 99% CI. toxicological grounds, but there is no clinical basis for this and both drugs have been very widely used without any conclusive evidence of neurotoxicity in humans. A meta-analysis of published summary data from trials in severe malaria conducted using any QHS drug (i.e., not restricted to artemether) showed a significant survival advantage associated with QHS drugs compared with quinine [OR (95% CI) 0.68 (055 to 0*84)], although this was less significant if the analysis was restricted to trials reporting adequate concealment of allocation [OR 0.77 (0.61 to 0.98)] (MCINTOSH & OLLIARO, 1998). Overall adverse effects with QHS drugs were mild and not more common than with quinine. Although the majority of patients were in trials comparing artemether with quinine (and hence included in the current individual patient data metaanalysis), it is reassuring that there was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect between the QHS drugs. At present neither artemether nor artesunate is licensed for general parenteral use in Europe or North America. The individual patient data approach to meta-analyses has a number of major strengths, including the ability to undertake formal survival analysis of time-toevent variables such as coma recovery. However, such an approach is relatively time consuming and expensive compared with the more commonly used systematic review of published data. A further minor problem of the individual patient data approach concerns the handling of studies from which such data are unavailable. In the current study this was true of only 4 relatively small trials. Analysis of published data from these trials, 3 of which were probably not properly randomized, reveals a significant mortality result in favour of artemether. This result should be treated with caution, although it is reassuring that no deleterious effects of the ‘new’ drug were found compared with the ‘gold standard’ quinine. Meta-analyses restricted to published summary data can be less reliable than those incorporating both published and unpublished data for several reasons: they cannot include trials that have not been published in full; randomized patients inappropriately excluded from analyses cannot be included; combining different reported endpoints can be problematic; and analyses based on time-to-event data are not possible (STEWART & PARMAR, 1993). Furthermore, the trial groups do not have the opportunity to be involved in the interpretation of their trial data. A recently published meta-analysis of published data comparing artemether and quinine produced a similar odds ratio (95% CI) for overall mortality as the present individual patient data meta-analysis [0.76 (0.50 to 1.14)], but was unable to address the important issues of neurological sequelae, combined adverse outcomes, and coma and fever recovers times (PITILER & ERNST, 1999). This meta-analysis covers trials conducted on several different types of patient population. There is a striking difference in the clinical nresentation of severe malaria between sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia/ Oceania. In parts of tropical Africa where Phsmodium fdciparum is holoendemic the main clinical manifestation of malaria is severe anaemia in children aged l-3 years, and cerebral malaria is considered rare, although recent detailed studies challenge this (SCHELLENBERG et al., 1999). In other areas of Africa, where transmission is less intense, the predominant severe disease syndrome is cerebral malaria occurring in slightly older children (BREWSTER & GREENWOOD, 1993; SNOW et al., 1994). Severe malaria seldom occurs in African adults living in holoendemic or hyperendemic areas, but does occur in areas where transmission is sporadic (ENDESHAW & ASSEFA, 1990). In contrast in SouthEast Asia, where falciparum malaria transmission is generally unstable and low, severe malaria in (nonimmune) adults is relatively common (HIEN et al., 1996), and takes the form of a multi-system disorder in which cerebral manifestations, jaundice, and renal failure are all common. Hence at a population level there is a difference in clinical presentation between the META-ANALYSIS OF ARTEMETHER-QUININE 649 FOR SEVERE MALARIA severe malaria seen in Africa and that described in South-East Asia, and this geographical difference is mirrored bv differences in age. In the 7 studies included in the meta-analysis, 4 were conducted on African children. and 3 on South-East Asian adults. Further differences between these 2 groups of trials include the presence of low-grade quinine resistance in South-East Asia, which, in theory, may lead to heterogeneity in the treatment effect of artemether compared with quinine, and the sex distribution, as the maioritv of South-East Asian patients are men (who are more likely to migrate to malarious areas for work). Subgroup analyses by age and region suggest that in adults and in Asian patients artemether is significantly more effective than quinine in reducing mortality, although, as in the overall analysis, there is no significant treatment effect overall after adjusting for the subgroup factor (and no significant heterogeneity between subgroups). The reasons for the mortality differences in favour of artemether in these subgroups is unclear. Increased effectiveness in areas of quinine resistance is a possibility, as is an age-speciiic variation in efficacy. The natural evolution of severe malaria in adults tends to be slower than in children, and this could result in a greater time-window of opportunity for an effective drug to salvage the patient. Malaria-specific immunity, which is related to both age and geographical region, may attenuate the clinical importance of any drug anti-malarial effect. Hence nonimmune Asian adults (and travellers from developed countries) may be more dependent on drug effects than semi-immune African children. The results of subgroup analyses of the presence of the extra-cerebral complications jaundice and renal failure (both more common in non-immune adult patients) yielded similar differences in treatment effect in favour of artemether. The presence of so many closely linked covariates makes identification of the factor(s) underlvina the difference in treatment effects between the 2 grocps of trials very difficult. The results of this meta-analysis can be interpreted in several ways. The difference in mortality observed (a relative reduction of 20% in artemether recipients) did not reach statistical significance. However, we can be reasonably confident that artemether is at least as effective as quinine, if not better, and if a 20% reduction in mortality were the true effect this would be of considerable importance. Antimalarial drugs reduce the mortality of severe malaria by killing malaria parasites or preventing their multiplication. Artemether acts at an earlier stage of parasite development compared with quinine-and cleared parasites more rapidly. This result should not be interpreted as indicating parasite clearance is unrelated to life-saving efficacy. The failure of chloroquine as high-grade resistance develops and the concomitant increase in mortality suggests that it is. Many patients who die from severe malaria do so within hours of admission to hospital. They may not be salvageable. The window of opportunity for improved antimalarial drug treatments to affect outcome may be small. The patients who might be saved are, by detinition, the most seriously ill. Yet it is these patients, whose microcirculatory function is impaired, who are most likely to malabsorb the intramuscular oil injection of artemether (MURPHY et al., 1997). It could be argued that what artemether gained through its intrinsically greater activity, it lost through inadequate or slow absorption following intramuscular injection. These trials provide us with reassuring information on the safety of both drugs. No adverse effects were noted with artemether. It was simple and safe to administer. 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Received 13 June 2000; revised 2 Februa y 2001; accepted for publication 28 Februa y 2001 Fondazione Ivo de Carneri For the promotion of control strategies against parasitic diseases in developing countries and to encourage research in parasitology Professor Ivo de Carneri (1927-1993) was one of the great European parasitologists. Some will remember him as a laboratory scientist, others will remember the enthusiasm he brought to field studies in the tropics. Perhaps his most lasting contribution was as an educator: many young scientists acquired their first interest in parasitology through his teaching as Professor of Parasitology at the University of Pavia, and through the courses in tropical medicine which he initiated in developing countries. His classic book, Parassitologka Generale e Umana, is now in its twelfth edition, a perhaps unique achievement for a university text in parasitology. The Fondazione Ivo de Cameri was established in October 1994 with the following objectives and activities: (i) to promote research and training in parasitic diseases; (ii) to encourage the study of parasitology and to support young researchers from developing countries through scholarships and the award of the biennial Ivo de Cameri Prize; (iii) to combat parasitic diseases and to develop new strategies and tools for their control through the development of Public Health Laboratories in developing countries. The Foundation has now reached its first important goal: the building and setting up of the Public Health Laboratory Zvo de Carneti on Pemba Island, Zanzibar, in close collaboration with the Ministry of Health of Zanzibar and the World Health Organization. The aims of the laboratory are: (i) monitoring of control of endemic communicable and parasitic diseases; (ii) surveillance of epidemics; (iii) training of national and international health personnel; (iv) promotion of operational research to develop new tools for disease control. Collaboration between ‘North and South’ physicians and scientists has started through the implementation of large-scale trials on nutrition, helminthology and immunology in collaboration, among others, with WHO, the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. For more information about the Foundation, or to give a contribution towards its activities, please contact: Fondazione Ivo de Cameri, Viale Monza 44-20127, Milano, Italy; phone +39 02 2890393, fax +39 02 28900401, e-mail [email protected]; website www.fondazionedecameri.it or Public Health Laboratory Ivo de Carneri, Wawi, P.O. Box 122, Chake-Chake, Pemba, Zanzibar; phone +255 24 2452457, fax +255 24 2237630, e-mail [email protected]
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