NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF UNIONIZATION
ON PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYERS: 1984-2001
John DiNardo
David S. Lee
Working Paper 10598
http://www.nber.org/papers/w10598
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
June 2004
Matthew Butler and Francisco Martorell provided outstanding research assistance. We would like to thank
David Card, Robert J. LaLonde, Larry Katz, Enrico Moretti, Morris Kleiner, for helpful discussions and Hank
Farber for providing election data. We would also like to thank seminar participants at the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the NBER Labor Economics Summer Institute, and the
University of Michigan Labor Workshop for comments on an earlier paper, Ritch Milby at the California
Census Data Center, Andrew Hildreth, and Thomas Kochan. The research in this paper was conducted while
one of the authors was a Census Bureau research associate at the Berkeley California Census Research Data
Center. Research results and conclusions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily indicate
concurrence by the Bureau of the Census, National Labor Relations Board, the Federal Mediation and
Conciliation Service, or the Institute for Labor and Employment. The results in this paper have been screened
to ensure that no confidential data are revealed. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and
not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
©2004 by John DiNardo and David S. Lee. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two
paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given
to the source.
Economic Impacts of Unionization on Private Sector Employers: 1984-2001
John DiNardo and David S. Lee
NBER Working Paper No. 10598
June 2004
JEL No. J0, J2, J3, J5, C1, C5
ABSTRACT
Economic impacts of unionization on employers are difficult to estimate in the absence of large,
representative data on establishments with union status information. Estimates are also confounded
by selection bias, because unions could organize at highly profitable enterprises that are more likely
to grow and pay higher wages. Using multiple establishment-level data sets that represent
establishments that faced organizing drives in the U.S. during 1984-1999, this paper uses a
regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of unionization on business survival,
employment, output, productivity, and wages. Essentially, outcomes for employers where unions
barely won the election (e.g. by one vote) are compared to those where the unions barely lost. The
analysis finds small impacts on all outcomes that we examine; estimates for wages are close to zero.
The evidence suggests that n at least in recent decades n the legal mandate that requires the
employer to bargain with a certified union has had little economic impact on employers, because
unions have been somewhat unsuccessful at securing significant wage gains.
John Dinardo
440 Lorch Hall
Ford School of Public Policy
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220
and NBER
[email protected]
David S. Lee
Department of Economics
549 Evans Hall, #3880
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
and NBER
[email protected]
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H8
Bargaining Power of Workers
B 0 : Law Prohibits Unions
B M : Law Allows Unions, No Election
B N : Law Allows Unions, Election Held, Union Loses
B U : Law Allows Unions, Election Held, Union Wins
B U (V)
Direct Impact
B N (V)
B M (V)
Indirect Impact
(Threat)
Impact of
Permitting Unions
B 0 (V)
50%
Vote Share (How Workers Would Vote)
Figure I
Theoretical Relation Between Employer Outcome and Vote Share
12
InfoUSA sample
LRD sample
10
Percent
8
6
4
2
0.975
0.925
0.875
0.825
0.775
0.725
0.675
0.625
0.575
0.525
0.475
0.425
0.375
0.325
0.275
0.225
0.175
0.125
0.075
0.025
0
Union Vote Share
Figure II
Distribution of Union Vote Share, All Certification Elections, InfoUSA and LRD sample
Note: InfoUSA sample: 27560 observations, LRD sample; 5608 observations
Figure IIIa: Recognition, Subsequent Certification or Decertification, by Union
Vote Share
1.00
0.90
Union Recognition,
0.994 (0.001)
(2nd) Recognition
Later, -0.100 (0.01)
Decertified Later,
0.083 (0.007)
0.80
Probability
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
Union Vote Share
0.75
1.00
Note: 21405 Observations
Figure IIIb: Contract Expiration Notice Filed, Prior to and Post-Certification or
Decertification Election, by Union Vote Share
0.90
Post-Cert. Election, 0.217 (0.014)
0.80
0.70
Post-Decert. Election, 0.348 (0.033)
Prior to Cert. Election, 0.042 (0.010)
Prior to Decert. Election, 0.008 (0.038)
Probability
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
Union Vote Share
Note: 21405, 3785, 21457, and 3445 Observations, respectively.
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.80
0.45
0.75
0.40
0.70
0.35
0.65
0.30
Certification Election
0.60
Fit, Cert., -0.012 (0.014)
0.25
Decertification Election
0.55
0.20
Fit, Decert., 0.032 (0.033)
0.50
0.15
0.45
0.10
0.40
0.05
0.35
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Probability, Decert.
Probability, Cert.
Figure IVa: Survival at Year 2001, by Union Vote Share
1.00
Union Vote Share
Note: 27560 and 4638 observations, respectively.
4.80
6.00
4.60
5.80
4.40
5.60
4.20
5.40
4.00
3.80
5.20
Certification Election
5.00
Fit, Cert., 0.029 (0.068)
3.60
Decertification Election
4.80
3.40
Fit, Decert., 0.017 (0.141)
4.60
3.20
4.40
3.00
4.20
2.80
4.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
Union Vote Share
Note: 9792 and 1857 observations, respectively.
0.75
1.00
Log(Empl.), Decert.
Log(Empl.), Cert.
Figure IVb: Log(Employment), Year 2001, by Union Vote Share
9.80
11.20
9.60
11.00
9.40
10.80
9.20
10.60
9.00
10.40
Certification Election
8.80
10.20
Fit, Cert., -0.072 (0.079)
8.60
Decertification Election
10.00
8.40
Fit, Decert., -0.050 (0.174)
9.80
8.20
9.60
8.00
9.40
7.80
9.20
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Log(Sales), Decert.
Log(Sales), Cert.
Figure Va: Log(Sales), by Union Vote Share
1.00
Union Vote Share
Note: 9125 and 1738 observations, respectively.
5.40
7.00
5.20
6.80
5.00
6.60
4.80
6.40
4.60
Certification Election
6.20
4.40
Fit, Cert., -0.053 (0.049)
6.00
4.20
Decertification Election
5.80
4.00
Fit, Decert., 0.047 (0.112)
5.60
3.80
5.40
3.60
5.20
3.40
5.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
Union Vote Share
Note: 8634 and 1674 observations, respectively.
0.75
1.00
Log(Sales/Worker), Decert.
Log(Sales/Worker), Cert.
Figure Vb: Log(Sales/Worker), by Union Vote Share
Figure VIa: Baseline Characteristics at Time of Election, by Union Vote Share
1.00
4.50
0.80
Probability
0.70
4.40
4.30
4.20
0.60
4.10
0.50
4.00
0.40
3.90
0.30
3.80
0.20
3.70
0.10
3.60
0.00
3.50
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Log(Total Votes Cast)
Manufacturing
Fit, -0.036 (0.012)
Service
Fit, 0.033 (0.011)
Log(Votes Cast)
Fit, 0.028 (0.020)
0.90
1.00
Union Vote Share
Note: 32198 observations
Figure VIb: Baseline Characteristics at Time of Election, Conditional on
Survival at Year 2001, by Union Vote Share
1.00
4.50
0.90
0.80
Probability
0.70
4.40
4.30
4.20
0.60
4.10
0.50
4.00
0.40
3.90
0.30
3.80
0.20
3.70
0.10
3.60
0.00
3.50
0.00
0.25
0.50
Union Vote Share
Note: 13062 observations
0.75
1.00
Log(Total Votes Cast)
Manufacturing
Fit, -0.024 (0.020)
Service
Fit, 0.003 (0.018)
Log(Votes Cast)
Fit, 0.007 (0.032)
Figure VIIa: Survival at Year 1997, by Union Vote Share, LRD
0.90
0.85
Mean
Fit, -0.026 (0.029)
0.80
Probability
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Union Vote Share
10
12
9
11
8
7
Mean, Year last observed
Fit -0.042 (-.250)
Mean, Years in business
Fit, -0.379 (0.509)
10
9
6
8
5
7
4
0.00
0.25
0.50
Union Vote Share
Note: 5608 Observations, 4816 Establishments
0.75
6
1.00
Years in Business (Since Election)
Last Year Observed (Since Election)
Figure VIIb: Last Year Observed and Years in Business Since Election, by Union
Vote Share, LRD
11
13
Probability
0.50
Figure VIIIa: Observation of a Contract Expiration Notice, Pre- and
Post-Election, by Union Vote Share, LRD
0.45
Pre-Election
0.40
Post-Election
0.35
Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Union Vote Share
5.75
1.50
5.50
1.25
1.00
5.25
0.75
5.00
0.50
4.75
0.25
4.50
4.25
0.00
Pre-Election
Post-Election
De-meaned Log(Hours/1000)
Log(Hours/1000)
Figure VIIIb: Log(Production Hours/1000), Pre- and Post-Election, by
Union Vote Share, LRD
-0.25
Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean
4.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
-0.50
1.00
Union Vote Share
Note: Observations: Pre-Election 38870, Post-Election 28929, Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean 28790
10.50
1.50
10.25
1.25
10.00
1.00
9.75
0.75
9.50
0.50
9.25
0.25
Pre-Election
9.00
0.00
Post-Election
8.75
-0.25
Post-Election minus Pre-Election
8.50
0.00
0.25
0.50
De-meaned Log(Output/1000)
Log(Output/1000)
Figure IXa: Log(Output/1000), Pre- and Post-Election, by Union Vote
Share, LRD
0.75
-0.50
1.00
Union Vote Share
5.50
1.50
5.25
1.25
5.00
1.00
4.75
0.75
4.50
0.50
4.25
0.25
4.00
0.00
3.75
3.50
0.00
Pre-Election
Post-Election
-0.25
Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean
0.25
De-meaned Log(Output/hour)
Log(Output/Hour)
Figure IXb: Log(Output/Hour), Pre- and Post-Election, by Union Vote
Share, LRD
0.50
0.75
-0.50
1.00
Union Vote Share
Note: Observations: Pre-Election 38854, Post-Election 28918, Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean 28785
Figure Xa: Log((Assets/worker)/1000), Pre- and Post-Election, by
Union Vote Share, LRD
0.00
4.50
Log((Assets/worker)/1000)
4.25
-0.25
De-meaned Log((Assets/worker)/1000)
Pre-Election
Post-Election
Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean
4.00
-0.50
3.75
-0.75
3.50
-1.00
3.25
-1.25
3.00
-1.50
2.75
-1.75
2.50
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
-2.00
1.00
Union Vote Share
Figure Xb: Log(Production Hourly Wage), Pre- and Post-Election, by
Union Vote Share, LRD
0.30
2.75
2.70
Pre-Election
Post-Election
0.25
Log(Wage)
De-meaned Log(Wage)
Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean
2.65
0.20
2.60
0.15
2.55
0.10
2.50
0.05
2.45
0.00
2.40
-0.05
2.35
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
-0.10
1.00
Union Vote Share
Note: Observations: Panel A, Pre-Election 37005, Post-Election 20505, Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean 20346
Panel B, Pre-Election 38870, Post-Election 28929, Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean 28790
0.25
0.20
Log(Wage)
0.15
Figure XIa: Event Study Estimates of Election Impact on Log(Wage), All
Union Losses
Estimate
Lower 95
Upper 95
0.10
0.05
0.00
-0.05
-0.10
-0.15
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1
Event time
0.25
2
3
4
6
7
8
9 10 11
Figure XIb: Event Study Estimates of Election Impact on Log(Wage),
Union Loses, Vote Share: 30 to 50 percent
0.20
Estimate
Lower 95
Upper 95
0.15
Log(Wage)
5
0.10
0.05
0.00
-0.05
-0.10
-0.15
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Event time
Note: Panel A, 32538 Obs, 3584 Establishments; Panel B, 14899 Obs, 1891 Establishments
6
7
8
9 10 11
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
0.143
(2.638)
(5)
-0.533
(2.615)
-0.551
(3.818)
(4)
-1.405
(2.618)
0.415
(3.797)
(3)
-0.630
(2.670)
0.862
(3.804)
(2)
-1.110
(0.946)
-0.210
(3.886)
0.331
(1.907)
0.064
(0.008)
Yes
(1)
Table I: OLS and Regression-Discontinuity Estimates, Impact of Union Recognition on Business Survival
Union Won
-0.322
(0.130)
0.516
(0.617)
-0.106
(1.905)
--
-0.133
(1.902)
0.059
(0.008)
Yes
Yes
-0.021
(0.028)
-0.062
(0.730)
--
--
--
0.365
(1.947)
--
Yes
No
0.0907
-0.025
(0.028)
0.120
(0.721)
--
--
--
--
No
No
0.0743
-0.021
(0.028)
0.552
(0.720)
---
--
--
No
No
0.0637
-0.026
(0.029)
0.379
(0.732)
----
--
No
No
0.0107
-0.027
(0.029)
0.499
(0.398)
----
No
No
0.0107
-0.041
(0.023)
0.182
(0.134)
(Vote Share)2
---
0.065
(0.008)
Yes
No
0.0106
-0.046
(0.022)
-0.130
(0.055)
(Vote Share)3
---
0.061
(0.008)
Yes
Yes
0.0094
-0.073
(0.013)
--
(Vote Share)4
-Yes
No
0.0893
-0.078
(0.013)
--
Log(Votes Cast)
No
No
0.0729
-0.092
(0.013)
--
Year dummies?
No
0.0614
-0.089
(0.013)
--
Industry dummies?
0.0084
Vote Share
R-Squared
Note: Sample size is 5608. Some elections match to same establishment, so standard errors are clustered on the establishment level (4816 independent
establishments). Includes all elections that occurred before 1997 that has the same name and address as a pre-election-year entry in the LRD. Dependent variable
is whether establishment appears in the 1997 Census of Manufactures. Least squares point estimates reported.
All
0
Level
No
No
No
0.252
(0.011)
[28796]
-0.318
(0.036)
[28796]
-0.347
(0.042)
[28785]
-0.028
(0.029)
[28785]
0.122
(0.049)
[20346]
-0.039
(0.011)
[28796]
(2)
All
1
Level
No
No
No
0.198
(0.016)
[28796]
-0.260
(0.063)
[28796]
-0.293
(0.072)
[28785]
-0.032
(0.048)
[28785]
0.020
(0.082)
[20346]
-0.041
(0.019)
[28796]
(3)
Coefficient on Won Election
(1)
0.220
(0.021)
[4733]
0.009
(0.087)
[4733]
0.079
(0.094)
[4730]
0.072
(0.063)
[4730]
-0.121
(0.108)
[3379]
0.015
(0.025)
[4733]
+/- 5%
0
Level
No
No
No
All
2
Level
No
No
No
0.191
(0.017)
[28796]
-0.203
(0.063)
[28796]
-0.254
(0.073)
[28785]
-0.051
(0.048)
[28785]
-0.020
(0.082)
[20346]
-0.044
(0.020)
[28796]
(4)
All
3
Level
No
No
No
0.202
(0.020)
[28796]
0.085
(0.080)
[28796]
0.067
(0.090)
[28785]
-0.018
(0.060)
[28785]
-0.059
(0.102)
[20346]
-0.005
(0.024)
[28796]
(5)
Table II: Least-squares Regression-Discontinuity Estimates of Union Effects
Dependent Variable
Contract Expiration
Log(Hours)
Log(Output)
Log(Output/worker)
Log(Assets/worker)
Log(Wage)
Sample
Polynomial Terms
Dependent Variable
Include Base Mean?
Year dummies
Industry dummies
(6)
0.198
(0.022)
[28796]
0.097
(0.080)
[28796]
0.080
(0.091)
[28785]
-0.016
(0.061)
[28785]
-0.048
(0.103)
[20346]
-0.002
(0.024)
[28796]
All
4
Level
No
No
No
(7)
0.181
(0.020)
[28796]
-0.024
(0.056)
[28796]
-0.043
(0.055)
[28785]
-0.019
(0.035)
[28785]
-0.136
(0.104)
[20346]
-0.026
(0.017)
[28796]
All
4
(8)
4
0.182
(0.020)
[28796]
0.015
(0.051)
[28796]
-0.010
(0.050)
[28785]
-0.019
(0.034)
[28785]
-0.090
(0.093)
[20346]
-0.018
(0.016)
[28796]
All
Yes
No
No
(9)
4
0.181
(0.020)
[28796]
0.018
(0.050)
[28796]
-0.004
(0.050)
[28785]
-0.018
(0.034)
[28785]
-0.064
(0.075)
[20346]
-0.018
(0.016)
[28796]
All
Yes
Yes
No
(10)
4
0.179
(0.020)
[28796]
0.028
(0.049)
[28796]
0.011
(0.049)
[28785]
-0.015
(0.034)
[28785]
-0.029
(0.072)
[20346]
-0.016
(0.015)
[28796]
All
Yes
Yes
Yes
De-meaned De-meaned De-meaned De-meaned
No
No
No
Note: Within-election clustered standard errors in parentheses. Number of observations in brackets. Each entry is the estimated coefficient on the
"Union won" indicator in a least squares regression. "Base Mean" is the average of the dependent variable for years strictly before the election year.
"De-meaned" denotes that the dependent variable is the outcome minus the "base mean". "+/- 5%" sample are elections where the union vote share is
between 45 and 55 percent.
Table III: Least-squares Regression-Discontinuity Estimates of
Union Effects, by Time after Election
Dependent Variable
(1)
(2)
(3)
Contract Expiration
0.077
(0.018)
[13240]
0.030
(0.042)
[13240]
0.001
(0.044)
[13235]
-0.027
(0.031)
[13235]
-0.043
(0.070)
[10332]
-0.013
(0.015)
[13240]
0.307
(0.032)
[8745]
0.032
(0.066)
[8745]
0.030
(0.064)
[8742]
-0.004
(0.046)
[8742]
-0.035
(0.114)
[6167]
-0.025
(0.021)
[8745]
0.214
(0.041)
[6811]
0.041
(0.094)
[6811]
0.040
(0.092)
[6808]
0.008
(0.061)
[6808]
0.029
(0.133)
[3847]
-0.005
(0.028)
[6811]
Log(Hours)
Log(Output)
Log(Output/worker)
Log(Assets/worker)
Log(Wage)
Sample
0-3 Years
post-El.
4-7 Years
post-El.
8+ Years
post-El.
Note: Within-election clustered standard errors in parentheses.
Number of observations in brackets. Each entry is the estimated
coefficient on the "Union won" indicator in a least squares
regression. Specification is the same as Col. (10) in Table 2. Each
column restricts the sample to the observations that are within the
first three years, between four to seven years, and eight years or
later, relative to the election year.
Dependent Variable
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
Table IV: Least-squares Regression-Discontinuity Estimates of Union Effects, by Sub-Sample
Contract Expiration
0.191
(0.028)
[14176]
0.028
(0.066)
[14176]
-0.018
(0.065)
[14171]
-0.033
(0.049)
[14171]
-0.129
(0.096)
[10292]
-0.002
(0.021)
[14176]
Log(Wage)
Log(Assets/worker)
Log(Output/worker)
Log(Output)
Log(Hours)
0.166
(0.028)
[14620]
0.024
(0.073)
[14620]
0.036
(0.074)
[14614]
-0.003
(0.047)
[14614]
0.076
(0.107)
[10054]
-0.029
(0.022)
[14620]
on Str. Add.
Industry
Industry
"Low-wage" "High-wage"
0.171
(0.024)
[22187]
0.000
(0.054)
[22187]
0.000
(0.053)
[22177]
0.001
(0.039)
[22177]
-0.051
(0.085)
[15577]
-0.011
(0.017)
[22187]
Exact match Non-Exact
0.196
(0.037)
[6609]
0.129
(0.109)
[6609]
0.040
(0.117)
[6608]
-0.079
(0.069)
[6608]
-0.016
(0.141)
[4769]
-0.035
(0.031)
[6609]
|ln(ratio)|>=
0.199
(0.030)
[13210]
0.138
(0.081)
[13210]
0.117
(0.079)
[13208]
-0.013
(0.053)
[13208]
0.047
(0.111)
[9311]
-0.038
(0.024)
[13210]
|ln(ratio)|<
0.160
(0.027)
[15586]
-0.065
(0.060)
[15586]
-0.080
(0.059)
[15577]
-0.019
(0.043)
[15577]
-0.079
(0.090)
[11035]
0.001
(0.019)
[15586]
75+ Prod.
on Str. Add.
0.205
(0.028)
[17296]
0.056
(0.064)
[17296]
0.077
(0.063)
[17290]
0.027
(0.045)
[17290]
-0.072
(0.100)
[12256]
-0.016
(0.020)
[17296]
<75 Prod.
0.285
0.139
(0.028)
[11500]
0.027
(0.063)
[11500]
-0.050
(0.070)
[11495]
-0.068
(0.048)
[11495]
0.061
(0.093)
[8090]
-0.021
(0.023)
[11500]
All
0.285
0.179
(0.020)
[28796]
0.028
(0.049)
[28796]
0.011
(0.049)
[28785]
-0.015
(0.034)
[28785]
-0.029
(0.072)
[20346]
-0.016
(0.015)
[28796]
Sample
Workers
match
Workers
Note: Within-election clustered standard errors in parentheses. Number of observations in brackets. Each entry is the estimated coefficient on the
"Union won" indicator in a least squares regression. Specification is the same as Col. (10) in Table 2. Each column uses a different sub sample. (2)
and (3) split the sample by size of the voting unit; (4) and (5) by whether there is an exact string match between the street address entry from the
NLRB and LRD data sets; and (6) and (7) by "high-wage" and "low-wage" industries.
Appendix Table I: Description of Data Sets
Data Set
Description
Main Variables
NLRB
National Labor Relations Board Election Database: Contains universe of representation
elections (certification and decertification) that occurred in the U.S. between 1984 and
1999. Total observations: 62415.
Date of election, # eligible
voters, # votes cast, # votes
for the union
FMCS
Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service Database: Contains all contract expiration
notices filed with the FMCS between 1984 and 2001. Total Observations: 563565.
Date of Contract Expiration
InfoUSA
InfoUSA Database: Contains all business establishments that appear in Phone Directories, Employment, Sales Volume
as of May, 2001.
LRD
Wages, Hours, Output, Total
Longitudinal Research Database: Comprised of two components. 1) Census of
Value of Shipments, Assets
Manufactures (1977, 1982, 1987, 1992, 1997): Universe of all manufacturing
establishments in the U.S., and 2) Annual Survey of Manufactures (1974-1999): Universe
of all large manufacturing establishments plus probability sample of smaller manufacturers.
NLRB/FMCS/InfoUSA Total number of elections (62415). 20+ votes cast (33503), <1000 votes cast (33382),
certification and de-certification elections only (32855), valid election date (32712).
Company name and establishment street address used to match to FMCS and InfoUSA
data. 13062 of the 32712 were found in the InfoUSA database (as of May, 2001).
NLRB/FMCS/LRD
Variables from NLRB,
FMCS, and InfoUSA
Company name and establishment street address used to match NLRB/FMCS data (32712 Variables from NLRB,
observations) (see above) to LRD. Kept only matches where the year from the LRD is
FMCS, and LRD
strictly less than the year of the election. With multiple matches, single "best" match was
kept. 8533 of the 32712 matched. Kept cases where the ratio of eligible voters (NLRB) to
production workers (LRD) is at least half (7743 of 8533).
Appendix Table II: Sample Means, Infousa/NLRB/FMCS and LRD/NLRB/FMCS data sets
Variable
Union Wins Election
Number of Votes Cast
Log(Votes Cast)
Total Employment
Log(Employment)
Total Value of Shipments ($1000)
Log(Total Value of Shipments)
Log(Shipments/Employment)
Number of Production Workers
Log(Production Workers)
Production Man-hours (1000s)
Log(Production Hours)
Shipments per Production Hour
Log(Shipments/Hour)
Employee Annual Earnings ($1000)
Log(Annual Earnings)
Production Wage
Log(Production Wage)
InfoUSA/NLRB/FMCS
Obs
Mean
Std. Dev
27560
27560
27560
16987
16987
16200
16200
8634
---------------------
0.429
88.6
4.091
172.8
4.057
32192.3
8.984
5.111
---------------------
0.495
107.6
0.806
353.0
1.645
72308.4
1.832
0.966
---------------------
Std. Error
(0.003)
(0.6)
(0.005)
(2.7)
(0.013)
(568.1)
(0.014)
(0.010)
---------------------
LRD/NLRB/FMCS
Obs
Mean
5608
5608
5608
5608
5608
5608
5605
5605
5608
5608
5608
5608
5608
5605
5608
5608
5608
5608
0.360
111.9
4.327
149.6
4.412
32217.9
9.434
5.021
112.1
4.077
228.9
4.762
140.9
4.671
27.4
3.383
11.9
2.538
Std. Dev
0.480
121.9
0.840
192.0
1.197
71991.9
1.478
0.772
151.9
1.239
308.8
1.281
207.9
0.833
11.1
0.374
6.1
0.377
Std. Error
(0.006)
(1.6)
(0.011)
(2.6)
(0.016)
(961.3)
(0.020)
(0.010)
(2.0)
(0.017)
(4.1)
(0.017)
(2.8)
(0.011)
(0.1)
(0.005)
(0.1)
(0.005)
Notes: Certification election cases only. Total Employment (I/N/F: reported; L/N/F: sum of non-production workers during quarter that contains March 12and production
workers). Total Value of Shipments (I/N/F and L/N/F): dollar value of products and services sold. Production workers: average of production workers in 4 quarters
containing the 12th of March, May, August, and November. Production Man-Hours: sum of 4 quarters of plant man-hours of production workers. Employee Annual
Earnings: Sum of earnings paid to production and non-production workers, divided by total employment. Production Wage: Earnings paid to production workers, divided
by production man-hours. Dollar amounts are in 2001 dollars for InfoUSA/NLRB/FMCS, and are (CPI-adjusted) 2000 dollars for LRD/NLRB/FMCS.
Appendix Table III: Correlation Between Similar Measures across Datasets
Data Set
Dependent Variable
InfoUSA
Log(Employment)
NLRB
Log(Eligible Voters)
LRD
Log(Prod. Workers)
NLRB
Log(Eligible Voters)
Mean
Slope Coefficient on Alternative Measure
All
Exact Street Non-Exact
Match
Match
4.298
(0.024)
[4181]
4.273
(0.013)
[4181]
0.913
(0.011)
[4181]
0.237
(0.010)
[4181]
0.910
(0.017)
[2692]
0.233
(0.013)
[2692]
0.906
(0.020)
[1489]
0.248
(0.015)
[1489]
4.605
(0.016)
[3583]
4.678
(0.014)
[3583]
0.972
(0.010)
[3583]
0.743
(0.008)
[3583]
0.959
(0.017)
[841]
0.824
(0.015)
[841]
0.976
(0.012)
[2742]
0.722
(0.009)
[2742]
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Number of observations in brackets. Upper panel reports median regression
slope coefficients. Lower panel reports OLS slope coefficients. Each entry is slope coefficient on the alternative
measure (e.g. 0.913 is the slope coefficient from a median regression of Log(Employment) from InfoUSA on
Log(Eligible Voters) from NLRB. The entry below is the reverse median regression). "Exact Street Match"
indicates that the street address matched exactly between the two data sets.
Appendix Table IV: Coefficients on Won Election, Alternative Measures
of Employer Outcomes
"Labor Inputs"
Log(Total Empl.)
Log(Non-prod. Empl.)
Log(Production Empl.)
Log(Production Hours)
"Output"
Log(Total Value of
Shipments)
Log(Adjusted Value
of Shipments)
0.039
(0.045)
[28796]
0.027
(0.051)
[28096]
0.037
(0.048)
[28796]
0.028
(0.049)
[28796]
0.011
(0.049)
[28785]
0.016
(0.050)
[28778]
"Capital"
Log(Total Assets)
Log(Assets/Total
Empl.)
Log(Assets/Production
Empl.)
Log(Assets/Production
Hours)
"Wages"
Log(Annual Earnings)
Log(Production Annual
Earnings)
Log(Production Hourly
Wage)
"Productivity"
Log(TVS/Total Empl.)
Log(Adj. TVS/Total
Empl.)
Log(TVS/Production
Empl.)
Log(Adj. TVS/Prod.
Empl.)
Log(TVS/Production
Hours)
Log(Adj. TVS/Prod.
Hours)
-0.027
(0.030)
[28785]
-0.024
(0.030)
[28778]
-0.026
(0.033)
[28785]
-0.023
(0.034)
[28778]
-0.015
(0.034)
[28785]
-0.012
(0.034)
[28778]
Log(Non-production
Annual Earnings)
Log(Non-prod/Prod.
Annual Earnings)
Log(Adjusted Annual
Earnings)
Log(Adj. Production
Annual Earnings)
Log(Adj. Production
Hourly Wage)
Log(Adj. Non-prod.
Annual Earnings)
-0.012
(0.077)
[20346]
-0.028
(0.069)
[20346]
-0.029
(0.072)
[20346]
-0.029
(0.072)
[20346]
-0.028
(0.015)
[28796]
-0.027
(0.016)
[28796]
-0.016
(0.015)
[28796]
-0.009
(0.024)
[27991]
0.010
(0.028)
[27991]
-0.025
(0.015)
[28796]
-0.024
(0.016)
[28796]
-0.013
(0.016)
[28796]
-0.006
(0.025)
[27991]
Note: Entries are coefficients from specification (10) from Table 2). Clustered (on establishment)
standard errors in parentheses, number of observations in brackets. Adjusted TVS: TVS + net change
in finished goods inventory + net change in work-in-process inventory. Adjusted wage variables add
total supplementary labor costs to the payroll before dividing by employment (or hours). For
production and non-production "wage" variables, total supplementary labor costs are first mulitplied
by the fraction of the payroll that is paid to production or non-production workers, before added to the
respective payrolls.
Appendix Table V: OLS and Regression-Discontinuity Estimates on Business Survival, Decertifications
Union Won
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
-0.030
(0.029)
-0.036
(0.029)
-0.047
(0.029)
-0.035
(0.029)
-0.058
(0.048)
0.086
(0.120)
-0.035
(0.049)
0.536
(0.266)
-0.019
(0.061)
0.815
(0.738)
-0.027
(0.062)
1.590
(1.332)
-0.031
(0.062)
1.560
(1.309)
-0.026
(0.061)
1.847
(1.307)
-0.021
(0.062)
1.755
(1.296)
-0.561
(0.300)
-1.338
(1.911)
-4.887
(5.356)
-5.005
(5.234)
-6.423
(5.248)
-6.040
(5.239)
0.546
(1.316)
6.414
(8.356)
6.866
(8.118)
8.949
(8.169)
8.440
(8.196)
-3.138
(4.414)
-3.495
(4.269)
-4.228
(4.338)
0.049
(0.018)
Yes
Vote Share
(Vote Share)2
(Vote Share)3
(Vote Share)4
Log(Votes Cast)
Year dummies?
No
Yes
0.053
(0.017)
Yes
Industry dummies?
No
No
No
R-Squared
0.001
0.0394
0.048
0.050
(0.018)
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
-4.465
(4.304)
0.052
(0.017)
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
0.0684
0.0015
0.0051
0.0053
0.0058
0.0442
0.0523
0.0723
Note: Sample size is 1085. Some elections match to same establishment, so standard errors are clustered on the establishment level (998 independent
establishments). Includes all elections that occurred before 1997 that has the same name and address as a pre-election-year entry in the LRD. Dependent variable
is whether establishment appears in the 1997 Census of Manufactures. Least squares point estimates reported.
Appendix Table VI: Least-squares Regression-Discontinuity Estimates of Union Effects, Decertifications
Dependent Variable
Contract Expiration
Log(Hours)
Log(Output)
Log(Output/worker)
Log(Assets/worker)
Log(Wage)
Sample
Polynomial Terms
Dependent Variable
Include Base Mean?
Year dummies
Industry dummies
Coefficient on Won Election
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
0.257
(0.060)
[1098]
-0.071
(0.054)
[1098]
-0.243
(0.190)
[1098]
-0.233
(0.184)
[1098]
0.011
(0.153)
[1098]
-0.342
(0.226)
[770]
0.328
(0.026)
[5954]
0.016
(0.024)
[5954]
0.088
(0.081)
[5954]
0.153
(0.088)
[5951]
0.065
(0.065)
[5951]
-0.048
(0.098)
[4205]
0.280
(0.042)
[5954]
0.002
(0.038)
[5954]
-0.115
(0.142)
[5954]
-0.014
(0.153)
[5951]
0.101
(0.110)
[5951]
0.077
(0.163)
[4205]
0.261
(0.045)
[5954]
-0.005
(0.039)
[5954]
-0.104
(0.143)
[5954]
0.002
(0.150)
[5951]
0.106
(0.111)
[5951]
0.015
(0.162)
[4205]
0.242
(0.056)
[5954]
-0.021
(0.049)
[5954]
-0.414
(0.176)
[5954]
-0.484
(0.186)
[5951]
-0.070
(0.144)
[5951]
-0.128
(0.207)
[4205]
0.226
(0.058)
[5954]
-0.038
(0.050)
[5954]
-0.381
(0.174)
[5954]
-0.473
(0.183)
[5951]
-0.092
(0.142)
[5951]
-0.132
(0.207)
[4205]
0.217
(0.056)
[5954]
0.006
(0.037)
[5954]
-0.160
(0.105)
[5954]
-0.221
(0.096)
[5951]
-0.065
(0.063)
[5951]
-0.156
(0.189)
[4205]
0.220
(0.055)
[5954]
-0.006
(0.035)
[5954]
-0.193
(0.100)
[5954]
-0.249
(0.092)
[5951]
-0.067
(0.063)
[5951]
-0.146
(0.176)
[4205]
0.218
(0.056)
[5954]
-0.004
(0.035)
[5954]
-0.196
(0.099)
[5954]
-0.252
(0.090)
[5951]
-0.067
(0.063)
[5951]
0.001
(0.141)
[4205]
0.232
(0.054)
[5954]
-0.005
(0.031)
[5954]
-0.205
(0.094)
[5954]
-0.236
(0.087)
[5951]
-0.043
(0.062)
[5951]
-0.033
(0.128)
[4205]
+/- 5%
0
Level
No
No
No
All
All
All
All
All
0
Level
No
No
No
1
Level
No
No
No
2
Level
No
No
No
3
Level
No
No
No
4
Level
No
No
No
All
All
4
All
4
All
4
4
De-meaned De-meaned De-meaned De-meaned
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Note: Within-election clustered standard errors in parentheses. Number of observations in brackets. Each entry is the estimated coefficient on the
"Union won" indicator in a least squares regression. "Base Mean" is the average of the dependent variable for years strictly before the election year.
"De-meaned" denotes that the dependent variable is the outcome minus the "base mean". "+/- 5%" sample are elections where the union vote share is
between 45 and 55 percent.
Appendix Table VII: Least-squares Regression-Discontinuity
Estimates of Union Effects, Decertifications
Dependent Variable
(1)
(2)
(3)
Contract Expiration
0.106
(0.063)
[2620]
-0.026
(0.032)
[2620]
-0.155
(0.082)
[2620]
-0.139
(0.076)
[2619]
0.012
(0.060)
[2619]
-0.091
(0.133)
[2071]
0.380
(0.068)
[1839]
0.021
(0.041)
[1839]
-0.138
(0.119)
[1839]
-0.193
(0.112)
[1838]
-0.064
(0.085)
[1838]
-0.075
(0.199)
[1284]
0.192
(0.092)
[1495]
0.018
(0.067)
[1495]
-0.372
(0.174)
[1495]
-0.450
(0.157)
[1494]
-0.108
(0.118)
[1494]
-0.037
(0.211)
[850]
Log(Hours)
Log(Output)
Log(Output/worker)
Log(Assets/worker)
Log(Wage)
Sample
0-3 Years
post-El.
4-7 Years
post-El.
8+ Years
post-El.
Note: Within-election clustered standard errors in parentheses.
Number of observations in brackets. Each entry is the estimated
coefficient on the "Union won" indicator in a least squares
regression. Specification is the same as Col. (10) in Table 2. Each
column restricts the sample to the observations that are within the
first three years, between four to seven years, and eight years or
later, relative to the election year.