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BIO ‐ Colonel Piotr M. Żurawski/POL ARMY 1988 ‐ Military Academy of Armoured Forces (BS), Second Lieutenant
1988‐1995 ‐ various command and staff positions in 41st Mech Rgt, 7th Coastal Defence Bde
1995‐1997 ‐ National Defence University /Staff College (MS)
1997‐1998 ‐ SO, Planning Branch, Land Forces Command (LFC)
1998‐1999 ‐ student US Marine Corps University (Command & Control Systems), USA
1999‐2003 ‐ Section Chief in Peace Ops and Allied Cooperation Branch /G‐3/LFC
(2001 – NDU, JFSC, Norfolk USA)
(2002 – POL LNO OPS “Enduring Freedom” US CENTCOM, Tampa USA)
2003‐2006 – NATO ACO, SHAPE, Mons, Belgium
2006‐2008 ‐ Chief International Cooperation Branch /G‐3/LFC
2009‐2010 – DCOM 21st Mountain Rfl Bde
(DCOM 6st rotation PMC ISAF, Ghazni, AFG)
2010‐2011 ‐ International Fellow at the US NDU, Washington DC
2011‐2013 ‐ Chief Land Forces Development Division G‐5/LFC
2013‐2015 ‐ COM 22nd Mech Bde
15/05/2015 – DCOS PLANS/HQ MNC NE (NRDC)
POLAND
BASIC DATA
• Territory: 312,685 sq. km (69) (Italy: 301,340 sq. km)
– Good location (west‐east; sea access)
• Population: 38,346,279 (July 2014 est.) (35) (Italy: 61,680,122) –
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Growth rate: ‐0.053% (USA: 0.97%; Turkey: 1.272%)
Life expectancy: 75.85 years (USA: 78.24; Turkey: 72.23 )
Median age: 38.2 years (USA: 36.8; Turkey: 28.1)
Literacy: 99.8% (USA: 99%; Turkey: 87.4%)
Education expenditures: 4.9% of GDP (2007) (USA: 5.5%; Tur.: 2.9%) • Stable democratic government
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NATO – 1999; EU – 2004; Schengen ‐ 2007
GDP at PPP per capita: from $13.784 in 2005 to $23.275 in $2013
Free market
Investment friendly Currency – Polish Zloty (3.98 PLN=1€; 3.67PLN=$1)
DEMOGRAPHICS
NATIONALITIES:
Polish
German
Belarusian
Ukrainian
95,63%
0,4 %
0,13%
0,08%
RELIGION:
Roman Catholic
Polish Orthodox
Protestanst
Others/Atheists
89,8%
1,3%
0,3%
8,6%
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REPUBLIC OF POLAND
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BORDERS & NEIGHBOURS
Russia
Lithuania
Belarus
Germany
Ukraine
Czech Republic
Slovakia
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GOVERNMENT SYSTEM
Guaranteed by the Constitution
Legislative branch – bicameral legislature consists of:
• upper house – the Senate (100 seats)
• lower house – the Sejm (460 seats)
Executive branch:
• President
• Government
Judicial branch
• Independent Courts
• General Attorney
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NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
NATIONAL INTERESTS:
1. Critical – assure state independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity
2. Important – assure economical growth, increase of social prosperity and development
3. Other – secure international position
NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
Challenges:
1. Labor migration
2. Decreasing population growth
3. Increasing income gap
4. Increasing gap of development among different regions
5. Dependency on oil and natural gas supplies
6. International terrorism and international crime
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ARMED FORCES
The Constitution of the Republic of Poland
Article 26
1. The Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland shall safeguard the independence and territorial integrity of the State, and shall ensure the security and inviolability of its borders.
2. The Armed Forces shall observe neutrality regarding political matters and shall be subject to civil and democratic control.
ARMED FORCES
MISSION
• guarantee defense of the state and repulse potential aggression
• participate in the process of promoting and preserving security and
stability in the international environment and in crisis response and
humanitarian operations
• assistance in the event of natural disasters, man-made disasters and
terrorist threats
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ARMED FORCES
MAIN SERVICES
ARMY
AIR FORCE
62000
21000
NAVY
9000
SPECIAL OPS
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2800
President of Poland – Head of the Armed Forces
Minister of Defence
JOINT OPS
COMMAND
GENERAL
COMMAND
ARMY
MOD
ARMY
AIR FORCE
Components Commands
GENERAL
STAFF
NAVY
SPECIAL OPS
Support
Inspectorate
FORCE
PLANNER
FORCE
USER
FORCE
PROVIDER
Medical
Inspectorate
Military
Police
FORCE
SUPPORTER
ARMED FORCES
TRANSFORMATION DRIVERS
Legislative act from 2001:
1. 1,95 % of GDP is secured for Armed Forces
2. 20 % of Armed Forces budget goes to modernization
25
20
15
10
5
0
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
% of Armed Forces budget forseen for modernisation
• Poland is a fast developing economy
• energy consumption per capita relatively low
• tendency for better quality of life, development of industries ‐ radical increase demand for energy (overall demand for energy in Poland changes from 67.3 Mtoe
in 2015 to 84.4 Mtoe in 2030, which means approximately 25% increase)
‐ Poland relatively safe and in some extend self‐sufficient
• production of power raw materials*, 98,3 mln tons in 2011, 0,6% of world’s production
• big producer of fossil resources ‐ majority of electric energy generation bases on coal (43.52%) and lignite (32.81%)
• no nuclear power plants
• 40% of gas, 4% of oil from national sources; however, developed system of sea ports, pipeline network assures open access to the international oil and gas imports
*measured in hard coal equivalent
Ok, but…
Firstly, existing coal/lignite mines allow maintaining current level of production of electric energy for 40‐50 years and for further 100 years from known and documented deposits, yet not unlimited. Secondly, gas and oil delivery are heavily dependent on one source (Russia) vulnerable to security/political disturbances.
Finally, combustion is the basis for production of energy in Poland and as such not environment friendly .
Is the Polish energy sector able to meet that challenges? COAL/LIGNITE – WHAT NEXT?
rich deposits of coal and lignite plus robust system of power plants
enough to meet increased demand for that type of energy for the next decades
coal and lignite would remain important stabilizers of Poland’s energy security
Renewable energy – target 15% by 2020 (11.25% as of 2014), 20% by 2030
… it is still only 20% in 2030
Nuclear power ‐ obvious, though controversial solution!
OIL/GAS – DEPENDENCY FACTOR
• Poland’s reliance on import 96% oil (94% of this from former Soviet Union countries – mainly Russia) and 60% gas (85% from Russia)
• energy as tool for the national political agendas
• lack of diversity
• main volume oil and natural gas is transported to Europe via pipelines
CONCLUSIONS:
• national resources provide enough capacities to safeguard current and future electricity/heating energy demand
• fossil based energy is transitional solution
• oil and gas ‐ we must accept the fact that self‐sufficiency is not possible
• EU has ability to actively shape European/Global energy policy as common interest of all members
• Energy vs. environment protection – global issues need global solutions! Actions have to be in concert with neighboring countries, EU community and global organizations. RECOMMENDATIONS
• Poland needs to continue extraction and exploitation of her national fossil energy resources
• Coal and lignite ‐ intermediate solution, a bridge to new more efficient and environmentally friendly solutions
• More ambitious policy with regard to renewable resources target
• Nuclear energy ‐ main energy resource for the future of Polish energy sector, the one that will replace fossils
• Poland has to pursue common EU solutions (common energy strategy) but also national investment (gas‐port) RECOMMENDATIONS cont. • Further investments in existing supply corridors and new transportation infrastructure, which includes electricity and gas interconnections
• Through EU pursue diversification of oil and gas transport modes, with construction of strategic pipelines from regions other than Russia (southern gas corridor) • Maximize connectivity of European pipelines networks to allow for free flow of oil and gas regardless of origin of inflow (connectors, reverse flow technologies)
EXPECTED OUTCOME • security of Poland’s energy sector for the next decades • free competition in the European energy market
• energy and its means of transportation (pipelines) are not political coercion weapon
• natural environment protected
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