PUBLICATIONS Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets RESEARCH ARTICLE 10.1002/2014JE004698 Key Points: • Lunar crater degradation can be treated as a topographic diffusion problem • Degradation state can be used to estimate the age of individual craters • The mean diffusivity of the Moon’s surface over the last 3 Ga is 2 ~5.5 m /Myr Correspondence to: C. I. Fassett, [email protected] Citation: Fassett, C. I., and B. J. Thomson (2014), Crater degradation on the lunar maria: Topographic diffusion and the rate of erosion on the Moon, J. Geophys. Res. Planets, 119, doi:10.1002/2014JE004698. Received 18 JUL 2014 Accepted 26 SEP 2014 Accepted article online 30 SEP 2014 Crater degradation on the lunar maria: Topographic diffusion and the rate of erosion on the Moon Caleb I. Fassett1 and Bradley J. Thomson2 1 Department of Astronomy, Mount Holyoke College, South Hadley, Massachusetts, USA, 2Center for Remote Sensing, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA Abstract Landscape evolution on the Moon is dominated by impact cratering in the post-maria period. In this study, we mapped 800 m to 5 km diameter craters on >30% of the lunar maria and extracted their topographic profiles from digital terrain models created using the Kaguya Terrain Camera. We then characterized the degradation of these craters using a topographic diffusion model. Because craters have a well-understood initial morphometry, these data provide insight into erosion on the Moon and the topographic diffusivity of the lunar surface as a function of time. The average diffusivity we calculate over the past 3 Ga is ~5.5 m2/Myr. With this diffusivity, after 3 Ga, a 1 km diameter crater is reduced to approximately ~52% of its initial depth and a 300 m diameter crater is reduced to only ~7% of its initial depth, and craters smaller than ~200–300 m are degraded beyond recognition. Our results also allow estimation of the age of individual craters on the basis of their degradation state, provide a constraint on the age of mare units, and enable modeling of how lunar terrain evolves as a function of its topography. 1. Introduction The calibration of the lunar cratering rate following the acquisition and radiometric dating of Apollo and Luna samples has helped establish a geologic history and chronology for the lunar maria [see, e.g., Wilhelms, 1987; Hiesinger et al., 2000, 2003, 2010, 2011]. Most of the maria were emplaced in the Imbrian period, from ~3.8 to ~3.2 Ga, with less volumetrically significant volcanism both earlier and more recently (the youngest units are as young as ~1 to 1.2 Ga) [Schultz and Spudis, 1983; Hiesinger et al., 2003]. Following the most recent volcanism in a given region, it is tempting to think of the Moon’s surface as quasi-static and unchanging, with only slow, ongoing impacts leading to the accumulation of new fresh craters on the surface. However, such a perspective is incomplete, since both the lunar regolith and lunar topography evolve with time. For example, bright ejecta rays from fresh craters fade [e.g., Grier et al., 2001], ejecta deposits become less distinct [Ghent et al., 2005; Bell et al., 2012], boulders excavated or exposed to the surface are rapidly destroyed [Hörz et al., 1975; Basilevsky et al., 2013], and topography becomes progressively muted with time [e.g., Craddock and Howard, 2000; Howard, 2007; Kreslavsky et al., 2013]. The final one of these processes—evolution of topography with time—is the focus of this paper. Specifically, this study derives a new calibration for the rate at which topography of the Moon evolves by looking at the progressive degradation of craters with diameter D = 800 m to 5 km on the lunar maria. The results of this calibration provide a way to estimate the age of individual craters from their degradation state and a measurement of the diffusivity and average erosion rate on the Moon’s surface over the past ~3.6 Ga. 2. Background For more than 40 years, crater degradation has been hypothesized to predominantly result from the cumulative effects of small later impacts [e.g., Ross, 1968; Soderblom, 1970; Soderblom and Lebofsky, 1972]. Soderblom [1970] provides a theoretical basis for recognizing that the form of this degradation is diffusional [see also Craddock and Howard, 2000; Howard, 2007; Bouley and Baratoux, 2011]. Other processes that mobilize regolith on the Moon such as thermal expansion and contraction [Molaro and Byrne, 2012] or seismic shaking [Schultz and Gault, 1976] may contribute to topographic diffusion as well, and the relative importance of these processes relative to micrometeoritic bombardment is presently unknown. FASSETT AND THOMSON ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 1 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 → In a diffusive model [see Pelletier, 2008, chapter 2], the volume flux q of material downslope across a contour is proportional to the slope of topography, so for diffusivity κ and the gradient of topography h: → q ¼ ∇h (1) Combining this with a statement of volume conservation (or mass conservation if density is constant) ∂h → ¼ ∇ q ∂t (2) ∂h ¼ κ∇2 h ∂t (3) implies that h evolves as (Note that throughout this paper, κ is used to denote the diffusivity, rather than D that is often used for discussing topographic diffusivity. The common use of D to denote crater diameter makes this untenable in a study characterizing crater topography.) Along with its application to cratered landscapes, equation (3) has long been applied as a model for the evolution of terrestrial hillslopes over time [e.g., Culling, 1960; Pelletier, 2008]. This type of diffusive model also implies that small craters degrade substantially faster than large ones, consistent with past analysis of the lunar surface [e.g., Basilevsky, 1976]. This means that for craters in the same degradation state—with the same diffusion age κt—a larger crater will appear substantially fresher than its smaller counterparts. Since the diffusion timescale grows as the square of the length scale, all else being equal, doubling the crater diameter increases its effective lifetime by a factor of 4. Even if the diffusivity κ is itself a function of time, it is not necessary to know the variability of diffusivity with time in advance, because mean diffusivity is sufficient to characterize the state of a given surface feature [Skianis et al., 2008]. In other words, Skianis et al. show that if topographic diffusion is operating on a surface, even if the rate of this diffusion is varying with time, the mean diffusivity that is experienced is what matters for the resulting degradation state. Not all of the topographic degradation experienced by craters on the Moon is likely to be from diffusive processes alone. Other processes may contribute to crater degradation as well, including advective mass wasting processes, such as landslides [e.g., Kumar et al., 2013; Xiao et al., 2013], or depositional processes, such as deposition of lofted dust [Grün et al., 2011] or distal ejecta [e.g., Li and Mustard, 2005]. However, the diffusive model provides a useful first-order framework for this type of analysis with few free parameters. Our measurements, presented below, also suggest that the diffusive model provides reasonable fits to the observed topographic profiles of craters on the Moon. 2.1. Crater Degradation, DL , and the Age of Geologic Units One of the most widespread past applications of crater degradation measurements has been to use crater degradation state to provide a proxy for the relative and absolute age estimates for geologic units. This is possible because older geologic units should have craters in a more advanced state of degradation than younger terrains, whose superposed craters have been exposed for a shorter period. A process for taking advantage of this was developed by Soderblom and Lebofsky [1972], who used Soderblom’s [1970] degradation model to predict the interior slopes of craters of a given size after a known flux of small impactors. This allowed Soderblom and Lebofsky to predict which craters would be shadowed versus unshadowed on a surface for a given solar elevation (based on predicted crater wall slopes), which is possible to measure on images. They used this to define a reference crater diameter, DL, which is representative of the maximum size of a crater expected to be reduced to an interior slope of 1° after the net accumulated flux based on their model. Soderblom and Lebofsky demonstrated that, to first-order, DL correlates with traditional crater density measurements. In other words, older surfaces have larger DL values, as expected. This was then applied observationally to essentially all of the near-side maria in a series of papers by Boyce and colleagues [Boyce and Dial, 1973, 1975; Boyce et al., 1974; Boyce, 1976; Boyce and Johnson, 1978]. Although these data are valuable and are somewhat consistent with other inferences about age from crater size-frequency distributions, they are not without some limitations that have been long understood [Soderblom and Lebofsky, 1972]. In particular, all of these measurements use shadowing as a proxy for maximum topographic slope. Thus, they (1) cannot account for topographic irregularities of the impacted surface or measured crater, (2) are potentially sensitive to the dynamic range, contrast, and viewing geometry of the original image, and FASSETT AND THOMSON ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 2 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 Figure 1. Location of craters and study area, superposed on the global LROC WAC mosaic. (3) only provide information about maximum interior slope rather than full knowledge of crater interior topography. In addition, a common method for applying the technique was to search for craters in particular degradation states (i.e., the largest crater with half of their floor covered in shadow), rather than characterize the full range of crater degradation states on a given unit, which increases the potential uncertainties. If the craters relied upon are secondaries or simply anomalous, this method could potentially underestimate or overestimate surface ages. Finally, this method is primarily aimed at constraining the age of surface units, not individual craters. 2.2. Direct Simulation of Crater Degradation, Topography From Photoclinometry, and Age Derivations Building on the earlier work by Soderblom, Boyce, and others, Craddock and Howard [2000] developed a model for diffusive crater degradation that they compared directly to the topography of craters. One way that Craddock and Howard’s study improved upon the earlier efforts was that their measurements of crater topography were derived from photoclinometry, which provides more information about the morphometry of craters than it is possible to attain from the shadow measurements used to determine DL. Key results of this work were (1) an age estimate (3.85 Gyr) for the mare in Apollo basin, which was challenging to determine on the basis of crater size-frequency distribution measurements, (2) a characteristic erosion rate on the Moon of 0.2 ± 0.01 mm/Myr since the Imbrian period, and (3) the suggestion that this erosion rate or diffusivity has decreased over time. One limitation of this approach is that photoclinometry is time-consuming and its accuracy is highly dependent on the photometric parameterization of the surface and calibration of the imaging system. Because it is time-consuming and very dependent on image conditions, Craddock and Howard were limited to a small portion of the maria in their study. 3. Methodology Before presenting a more detailed description of the techniques used in this study, we briefly outline the approach. First, all craters larger than D = 800 m were mapped across a broad region of the maria with Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) Wide Angle Camera (WAC) data [Robinson et al., 2010]. This portion of the work is identical to what is typically applied in a crater counting study. Second, we extracted the topography for each of the mapped craters using digital terrain models (DTMs) produced by the Kaguya (SELENE) Terrain Camera (TC) team [Haruyama et al., 2012]. Third, a numerical model for the diffusion of crater topography for D = 600 m to 5 km craters was implemented, which allowed us to establish a database of crater profiles in various states of diffusive evolution. Fourth, we determined the profile from this database which best matched each crater’s topography extracted in step two. The result of these steps was an estimate for each crater’s best fit degradation state, κt, and initial diameter, D0. These estimates of κt for the craters were then analyzed to better understand crater degradation temporally and spatially on the lunar surface. FASSETT AND THOMSON ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 3 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 Figure 2. An example of possible sources of topography for a crater (UniqCratID, 616) in our data set. (left) LOLA data provide precise profiles across features, but there is sparse sampling of the topography. We therefore primarily rely on the (right) Kaguya Terrain Camera DTM for the results presented in this study. 3.1. Crater Mapping and Study Area The extent of our study area and the location of mapped craters are shown in Figure 1. In aggregate, we mapped ~30% of the lunar maria by area total (~1.8 million km2), progressively mapping individual subareas of ~104–105 km2 at a time. The aim in choosing this study area was to have a broad geographic and age sampling of the maria, excluding areas dominated by obvious clusters or secondary crater chains, and eliminating the ejecta and near-field secondary craters of large post-mare craters. Our data samples most of the named maria. It would be useful to extend this data analysis to additional areas in future work, although the regions of the maria that we have not yet mapped are likely to be more geologically complex and have a greater admixture of secondaries. To catalog the location and size of craters, we used the LROC WAC global mosaic released to the Planetary Data System (PDS) on 8 December 2011 with 100 m/pixel image resolution and imported this data set into the ESRI ArcMap Geographic Information System (GIS) using U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)’s ISIS software (Integrated Software for Imagers and Spectrometers). After determining an area of interest, a 500 m grid (fishnet in GIS) was overlaid on the region and progressively removed as craters were identified using the three-point tool in the CraterTools extension to ArcMap [Kneissl et al., 2011]. CraterTools fits a circle to a crater’s rim and measures its size in a local map projection regardless of the map projection of the data or the GIS data frame. The grid that is progressively removed is used to provide a local scale to ensure that all craters larger than the grid are included, and so that no portions of the study area are missed. Craters with D < 800 m are excluded from all analyses, though many were mapped to assure a complete catalog of 800 m to 5 km craters. In total, we mapped 13,657 craters between 800 m and 5 km in our study area. 3.2. Sources and Extractions of Topography In the initial stages of the study, our strategy was to rely on topography extracted from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) profile data. LOLA provides measurements of the lunar surface topography with ~10 cm precision by making five simultaneous ranging measurements that sample ~5 m spots. The subsequent fivespot pattern is translated along the orbit by ~50 m [see Smith et al., 2010]. For a profile crossing near the center of a D ~ 1 km crater, LOLA thus typically acquires ~100 samples of the crater’s topography (Figure 2, left). To date, LOLA has taken more than 6 billion measurements of the lunar surface. Despite this remarkable data set, for most craters, the sampling of the topography of craters in our size range of interest is fairly sparse. Most craters do not have profiles passing near their center; as of the LOLA data released to the PDS through 14 December 2012, only 35% of craters with radius R had a sample point within 0.3R. Because of this sparse sampling, the primary source of topography for this study is the global Kaguya TC stereo DTM with 10 m/pixel posting. The Kaguya Terrain Camera successfully mapped over ~99% of the Moon in stereo and is highly complementary to LOLA: its measurements are less accurate (with a 1σ ~ 3–4 m elevation offset from LOLA and the Kaguya Laser Altimeter [Haruyama et al., 2012; Barker et al., 2014]), but its spatial coverage of the surface is superior (e.g., Figure 2, right). Intercomparison with LOLA verified that, where sufficient measurements exist, equivalent crater profiles and degradation states are derived from both instruments. FASSETT AND THOMSON ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 4 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 A global mosaic of the TC DTM was released as 3° × 3° tiles to the SELENE data archive (http://l2db.selene. darts.isas.jaxa.jp/). All of the tiles covering the maria were imported into ArcMap for analysis. A large majority of craters we measured are covered in this DTM; the main exceptions are in regions where shadows prevented stereo matching. This problem is most severe at high latitudes, where, in some instances, the derived stereo data are insufficient to characterize crater topography. The methodology we used to extract topography for craters after mapping was similar for LOLA and Kaguya. For LOLA, we maintain a geographically indexed MySQL database of all LOLA shot points that is updated at every PDS release. This database was queried at measured crater locations, and all valid LOLA measurements with a location within 2D of the crater’s center were extracted. For the TC data, the ArcMap Extract by Circle tool was used to save the region within 2D of the mapped crater center. Care was taken to merge data from multiple tiles for features near or on the edge of the 3° × 3° boundaries, although craters near the edge of the DTM tiles proved to be somewhat problematic because the boundaries did not internally agree in all instances. The extracted TC data were bilinearly resampled to 25 m/pixel and converted to a grid of points. For both the LOLA and TC data, the extracted points for each crater were then projected into a Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area map projection centered on the crater. In an ideal situation, the resulting (x,y, z) point files would then lie in a coordinate system with an origin corresponding to each crater’s center. Determining radial profiles from these data would then simply involve calculating the radial distance of each point from the origin. However, in practice, neither the LOLA measurements nor the TC DTMs were perfectly co-registered to the LROC WAC data set, and there was inherent uncertainty in the mapped craters’ centers. Thus, we developed a procedure to improve this coregistration using Generic Mapping Tools (GMT) [Wessel and Smith, 1998] to spatially shift the (x,y, z) points until a location with maximal radial symmetry is identified. Specifically, this procedure is a grid search for the center location with the minimum misfit of a degree five polynomial to the data with GMT’s trend1d fitting routine, with the assumption that this misfit is minimized when the points are closest to being collapsed onto a single profile (radially symmetric around the crater center). The search domain was initially defined as ±500 m from the measured crater center, and the step size for shifting was refined as the search proceeded, with a final step size of 10 m. In some instances, human intervention was required to increase the size of the search domain or manually pick the crater center when this algorithm failed. The resulting points following this registration step were then saved as radial distance and elevation (r,z) pairs. The median registration offset between the LROC WAC and TC data sets we found was 320 m and the shifts required were correlated locally (usually similar on a single portion of a given DTM tile). For LOLA, the average offset was ~100 m (one LROC pixel). Since the geodetic accuracy of the LROC WAC mosaic has been subsequently improved [e.g., Speyerer et al., 2014] and efforts are actively underway to update and merge the TC DTMs with the LOLA [e.g., Barker et al., 2014], the co-registration of these data sets is likely to be substantially improved in the near future or already has been improved subsequent to our measurements. 3.3. Fresh Crater Morphometry and Modeling Crater Evolution Our model for quantitatively fitting the measured crater with a degradation profile is similar to that of Craddock and Howard [2000] and Pelletier [2008]. A MATLAB program is used to solve equation (3) (the diffusion equation) numerically in two dimensions (h(x,y)) using an explicit, forward-time, center-space approach. The grid is first initialized with the morphometry of a fresh, simple crater of the diameter of interest (Figure 3). The model domain had grid spacing of 10 m for craters with D < 2.5 km and grid spacing of 20 m for craters larger than this size. The fresh crater model is based on a degree 3 polynomial approximation to measurements of rayed simple craters from LOLA data identified by Werner and Medvedev [2010] and S.C. Werner (personal communication, 2012), and has initial crater topography as defined in equation (4): 8 0:181 > > > < 0:229 þ 0:228r þ 0:083r 2 0:0393 hðr Þ=D ¼ > 0:188 0:187r þ 0:018r 2 þ 0:015r 3 > > : 0 FASSETT AND THOMSON for r ≤ 0:2R Central Flat Floor for 0:2R < r < 0:98R Interior for 0:98R < r < 1:5R Rim and Exterior for r ≥ 1:5R ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. (4) Farfield 5 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 This has a flat floor within 20% of the crater’s center, consistent with LOLA observations and earlier results [e.g., Schultz, 1976; Wood and Anderson, 1978], and a depth/diameter ratio (d/D) of 0.218 from the top of the rim to the flat crater floor, which is close to, but slightly deeper than, that of Pike [1977]. Figure 3. The model (green) we used for fresh craters in this study (see equation (4)). LOLA data were extracted where it crossed the center of six of the freshest rayed craters on the Moon in our size range. Figure 4. The model evolution of three craters of different sizes from 0 to 3 Ga. κt values are selected to be equivalent to ~500 Myr intervals (κt ~ 25, 5750, 8750, 11275, 13500, 14975, and 16450). After 3 Gyr of evolution, a 300 m crater is almost imperceptible, the 1 km crater is muted but still has significant relief, and the 3 km crater has only seen significant changes near its rim and floor. Note the significant widening of the rim as topographic diffusion is advanced, which is particularly evident here for the 300 m and 1 km craters. FASSETT AND THOMSON The fact that such a model fits a range of crater sizes is consistent with earlier results that imply that measured depths and diameters of the freshest craters are highly correlated (with d/D ≈ 0.2, R2 = 0.99); [Pike, 1974, 1977, 1980]. Similar morphometric relationships exist for the rim height of fresh craters and for the decay of their ejecta [e.g., Pike, 1977]; these relationships exist because most fresh, primary, simple craters in the size range considered here have consistent morphology [e.g., Pike, 1974]. At smaller sizes, with diameter less than 100 to 300 m, substrate effects can become more important, resulting in craters with concentric terraces [Oberbeck and Quaide, 1967; Quaide and Oberbeck, 1968; Bart, 2014]. Note that only the most oblique impact angles (θ < ~15°) lead to craters are non-circular in planform (~5% of the total population) [Gault and Wedekind, 1978; Andrews-Hanna and Zuber, 2010]; we exclude highly elliptical craters from our degradation analysis (though they are included in our crater statistics). The selfsimilarity of simple craters in the size range we analyze makes it possible to parameterize the initial crater morphometry over a range of sizes with a single function (equation (4)). Following this initialization, the numerical model allowed derivation of model crater profiles at a range of diffusion age (κt) values for each initial crater size, D0. The results from this modeling were stored in a database of profiles of κt from 0 to 100,000 m2 and D0 = 600 m to 5 km. The reason that the craters smaller than those of our main size range of interest are necessary to consider in this database is that the apparent diameter of craters increases as they degrade (see Figure 4). There is also an inherent uncertainty in our diameter measurements of ~10% [Robbins et al., 2014]. 3.4. Profile Fitting and Analysis For each crater, the extracted (r, z) profiles were compared with the model profiles, ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 6 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 varying two parameters related to the crater, D0 and κt. A third free parameter, z0, was also varied; this is the offset of the extracted crater profiles from zero elevation. In practice, z0 was estimated during profile extraction from the topography surrounding the crater by taking the average elevation of all points in the R to 2R region; this estimate was then refined during profile fitting. Our model implicitly assumes that all of the craters formed on an initially flat slope, which is a reasonable assumption for the maria as a whole and our data set in particular, since we excluded areas with significant background topography. D0, κt, and z0 were obtained using a grid search, with final increments of 10 m, 25 m2, and 1 m, respectively. The search range for D0 was 0.8–1D (for measured crater diameter, D), from 0 to 100,000 m2 for κt, and from 0 to 85 m for z0. A best fit model was initially determined by using a least squared fit to the data within 2R of the crater center, minimizing the weighted model misfit: X (5) w r ðzmodel zmeasure Þ2 where wr = (r/R)2 for the radius r of the data point and the summation is computed over all of the observations. This weighting compensates for the fact that the number of measurements at a given range increases as r 2. All resulting fits were manually inspected. For about 5–10% of the craters, the automatic best fit was found to be unsatisfactory. Three typical sources of poor fits were (1) in instances where the manually measured crater diameter was too large, the fitting algorithm sometimes converged on too large a D0, which was obvious because the rim position of the degraded model crater badly misfit the location of the measured profile’s crater rim, (2) in cases where the manually measured crater diameter was too small, the range occasionally needed to be adjusted to allow for a larger D0 (only an issue for fresh craters), and (3) on occasion, the fitting routine misfit both the rim and crater floor because the search range for z0 was too limited or because the crater’s profile was heavily modified by later impacts or preexisting topography. One reason that these qualitative misfits arise is that D0 and κt are not completely independent of each other: a more degraded, larger crater (higher κt, higher D0) can have a similar general shape to a less degraded, smaller crater (lower κt, lower D0), although in detail the profiles are fairly different, especially near the crater rim. In these instances, the search range for D0, κt, and z0 values were manually restricted to find a profile that best fit the depth of the crater, its interior wall slope, and its rim location and curvature. Because the degradation rate is evolving as a nonlinear function of crater size and age, the uncertainty in κt is difficult to formally parameterize. The experience with manual fitting suggests that the derived κt value is generally constrained to a range of ~ ±30% for a D = 1 km, moderately degraded crater. 4. Results 4.1. Crater Density on the Maria One of the by-products of this study is new map of crater densities on a large portion of the lunar maria. Essentially all of the area we mapped has been analyzed in detail in past studies [Hiesinger et al., 2000, 2003, 2010, 2011; Salamunićcar et al., 2014], and this data set mainly supports and replicates this past work. Nonetheless, this data set is useful since LROC WAC provides an excellent basemap for determining crater densities. In addition, a technique of looking at crater density [e.g., Ostrach and Robinson, 2014] without any a priori assumptions about the division of geologic units gives a different way of analyzing crater density information than has been analyzed in most past work. Figure 5a shows the frequency of craters with diameter 800 m to 5 km per unit area, n(800 m to 5 km), in our study area, and Figure 6a shows a histogram of the ages derived from these crater frequencies. There is reasonably good qualitative agreement between this map and earlier results, with only local-scale to regionalscale exceptions. Our data also appear to be systematically slightly younger than earlier studies (compare Figure 6a to Hiesinger et al. [2012, Figure 18]). These differences are fairly minor. They are likely attributable to subtle differences in measurement areas compared to earlier studies and different assumptions about secondary craters, which creates subjectivity about what craters to exclude. FASSETT AND THOMSON ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 7 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 Figure 5. (a) Map of the crater density in our data set, in moving neighborhoods of 50 km radius. (b) Map of the median κt value in a 50 km radius neighborhood, for all neighborhoods with at least five craters. Note that the median κt is converted to the unit age, not the model age of the median crater, which would be considerably younger (since the median crater formed at ~50% of the frequency of the unit as a whole). FASSETT AND THOMSON ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 8 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 Figure 6. Histogram of the age of the maria units we sampled, calculated by (a) converting the n(0.8–5 km) incremental crater frequency to age using the Neukum Production Function and (b) by using the median crater degradation state to determine the age of units using equation (6). A detailed comparison of our crater density determinations with earlier results in northwestern Oceanus Procellarum is shown in Figure 7. Hiesinger et al.’s [2003] P9, P10, and P13 spectral units all have ages between ~3.4 and 3.5 Ga (with model ages of 3.47 Ga, 3.44 Ga, and 3.40 Ga, respectively). Our data in the areas sampled by Hiesinger et al. are fairly consistent with these results: we find ages of 3.44 Ga, 3.54 Ga, and 3.34 Ga for P9, P10, and P13, respectively. The slight quantitative differences between our results and Hiesinger et al. are likely a consequence of the fact that our count areas do not perfectly match (especially in P10, where the difference is biggest) and the crater sizes being used to infer age are slightly different. In unit P21, the differences in ages are clearly attributable to sampling. Some of the area Hiesinger et al. counted we excluded as being probable secondariesbased on morphology and clustering. FASSETT AND THOMSON Figure 7. Detail of western Oceanus Procellerum, comparing (a) Hiesinger et al.’s [2003] data with (b) the crater densities mapped in this study. (Note that the age scale here is reversed from Figure 5 to match Hiesinger et al.’s colors; younger is redder.) The crater density map here (Figure 7b), and as a whole (Figure 5a), agrees reasonably well with Hiesinger et al.’s measurements where they sampled (polygons outlined in black). Where differences exist between the Hiesinger et al. measurements and our density map, they suggest greater variation in crater densities (and ages) in the maria, not fully captured in earlier work. An example of a more pronounced difference is that our crater density map suggests internal crater density variations exist within P10 from northeast to southwest, which were not recognized in earlier work. These variations suggest that P10 actually might be divisible into more than one unit. This sort of analysis illustrates how density differences alone [Ostrach and Robinson, 2014] may be a useful tool to allow identification of units of different age that may otherwise be indistinguishable on the basis of geology or spectral characteristics. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 9 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 Figure 8. Examples of Terrain Camera derived radial profiles for six individual craters with measured diameter D of 1 km, 2 in varying model degradation states, κt (units, m ). From least to most degraded, the location of these are (9.606°E, 22.936°N), (59.280°E, 39.311°N), (13.114°E, 35.615°N), (19.083°E, 20.010°N), (57.037°E, 50.643°N), and (7.489°E, 26.365°N). Note that due to a variety of factors, not every example has as good a fit as these examples (see text). 4.2. Observed Degradation States In total, we derived the degradation states for 13,514 craters in our study area. (This is less than the number of craters mapped because some craters had insufficient stereo topography, or were highly elliptical or overlapping.) Detailed information for each crater, including their topographic profiles and plots of their best fit models, are available from the authors upon request. Examples of crater topography and their model fits are shown in Figure 8. A few systematic issues appear to affect the quality of our degradation state determinations. First, the fit of the diffusion model to the topography is generally worse for the larger craters we examine (> ~2 km) than for smaller craters (800 m to ~2 km). One way this issue manifests itself is that the larger craters’ rims do not appear to be removed as quickly as we would predict given their reduced depths. One possible explanation for this is that this effect is real, and the physical breakdown of these rims is unable to keep up with diffusive transport, so that the transport rate is limited by physical weathering and the formation of regolith. This explanation is consistent with the observation that many of these larger craters on the maria have rocks or boulders exposed on their steep slopes, even if they are not particularly fresh. Alternatively, our fresh crater form —particularly the rim height—may be inaccurate for craters of this size. In addition, a fundamental limitation of fitting these larger craters in the first place is that their topography does not change as rapidly as a function FASSETT AND THOMSON ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 10 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 of time as smaller craters (Figure 4). Nonetheless, since craters 2–5 km in diameter range only make up ~4% of our data, the comparatively worse fit to larger craters should not have a controlling influence on our results. A second issue is that the TC DTMs became systematically and noticeably noisier at high latitudes (especially poleward of ~50°) where imaging conditions made stereo matching more challenging. This increases the uncertainty of our measurements in these regions. As is the case with the crater density, we examined the degradation states for each crater spatially. Figure 5b shows the median degradation state in moving Figure 9. The cumulative frequency distribution of crater degradation states neighborhoods of radius 50 km in our in our data set. measurement area (requiring a minimum of five craters in the neighborhood and clipping the data to the measurement area). The agreement between Figures 5a and 5b is striking considering that these two maps plot-independent parameters: Figure 5a is only a function of how many craters are found in a given area, and Figure 5b is only a function of crater topography and degradation within the local crater population. This agreement also supports the view that the degradation measurements we derive here provide a good proxy for age. A cumulative frequency distribution for the derived degradation states (κt) is shown in Figure 9. A few broad observations from this data are worthwhile before we describe how we link degradation state to age in the following section. First, the observed degradation states in Figure 9 increase smoothly, at least for craters with κt < 24,000. The steady rate of increase and lack of clustering around particular values is consistent with what we would expect based on the slow and stochastic accumulation of primary craters on the Moon and a relatively steady diffusion rate. Second, the subset of the most degraded craters (κt > ~24,000) reach much higher inferred degradation states. Some of these are likely to be degraded, post-mare primaries on the oldest portions of the maria we measured (~3.75 Ga), which are rare partly because these regions are a small subset of the total area we considered (see Figure 6a; <5% of the surfaces we examined had ages >3.6 Ga). The other most degraded craters—particularly those on younger terrains—are plausibly secondary craters which started abnormally shallow. We can also calculate the diffusivity of the lunar surface from Figure 9 with very few assumptions (the more extensive calculation in the next section gives more detail but is also more model dependent). First, based on crater statistics (Figure 6a) [see also Hiesinger et al., 2012, Figure 18] and the lunar sample collection, most of the maria were formed ~3–3.8 Ga [Basilevsky et al., 2011]. This is concordant with our crater statistics as well: the average crater density we derive for our study area as a whole, n(0.8–5.0 km) is 0.0074 km2, consistent with an average age of 3.33 Ga using the Neukum et al. [2001] calibration of the lunar impact flux. Second, after the major period of maria emplacement, the lunar impact flux is generally believed to have been within a factor of a few of steady [e.g., Hiesinger et al., 2012], with some suggesting it is modestly decreasing [Craddock and Howard, 2000; Hartmann et al., 2007; Minton and Malhotra, 2010] or increasing [McEwen et al., 1997; Culler et al., 2000]. Because of this nearly steady post-mare crater flux, the median-aged crater on this surface is likely to be approximately half of this ~3–3.8 Ga age, ~1.5–1.9 Ga. (Actually, the Neukum model actually implies that the median-aged crater on a 3.33 Ga surface should be ~2 Ga old, because the exponentially declining portion of his chronology function is still an influence on the integrated flux from ~2.8–3.3 Ga.) From Figure 9, the median degradation state for our measured craters is κt =12,400 m2. Dividing this by tmedian = 1.5–2 Ga implies an average diffusivity for the lunar surface κ ~ 6–8 m2/Myr for craters over the last ~1.5–2 billion years. 4.3. Linking Degradation States to Age and the Lunar Impact Flux Using the Neukum et al. [2001] model of the crater accumulation rate more extensively provides a way to directly link the observed crater degradation states to age. We first extracted the local crater density of each FASSETT AND THOMSON ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 11 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets Figure 10. A box-and-whisker plot of crater degradation state versus the local crater density of the surface that a given crater is superposed upon. The thick black line is the median κt, the wide bar ranges from the 25th to 75th percentile, and the thin bar ranges from the 10th to 90th percentiles. The 90th percentile values are probably anomalous, as discussed in the text. Note that along with the medians increasing as a function of increasing crater density/age (see also Figure 5), the range of degradation states is increasing with crater density/age. 10.1002/2014JE004698 crater using Figure 5a. Then, we sorted the craters by the crater density of the surface they were superposed upon, and subsetted them into bins of similar crater frequency. For each bin, the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the degradation state distribution were determined (Figure 10). As is clear in Figure 10, the median κt (50th percentile crater degradation state at a given crater density) and the interquartile range of crater degradation states increases as crater density (age) increases, as expected. We then applied the Neukum chronology to translate the measured crater frequencies into age (in this case, binning the data into 131 sets of 100 craters each). For each sample, we made the assumption that the crater with the 10th percentile degradation state for its surface formed at an age equivalent to 10% of the region’s frequency; in other words, after 90% of the other craters in that area’s population had already been accumulated (and likewise for the 25th percentile, 50th percentile, etc.). On any given terrain, this assumption is logical if crater degradation monotonically increases from least degraded to most degraded. For the linear part of the crater chronology curve this would imply that the crater in the median degradation state has an age which is 50% of the age of the maria it is superposed upon. (Note, again, however, that this is not the case for the part of the curve where the flux is significantly nonlinear: Neukum’s model implies that the median-aged crater on a 3.7 Ga old surface is 3.5 Ga.) The resulting calibration curve is shown in Figure 11a. This data can be fit with a fifth-order polynomial (R2 = 0.91), which gives the expected κt for a given crater as a function of its age, t: κt ðtÞ ¼ 435:83ðtÞ5 3621:2ðtÞ4 þ11; 204ðtÞ3 16; 811ðtÞ2 þ17; 546ðt Þ Figure 11. (a) A calibration of crater degradation state to age, using the Neukum production function to convert Figure 10 to ages. The curve fit to this is given in equation (6). (b) The effective diffusivity experienced by a crater of a given age (the derivative of equation (6)). FASSETT AND THOMSON ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. (6) The 90th percentile points are not included in this calibration as they systematically fall above this best fit curve. The easiest way to understand this is if the most degraded craters are commonly contaminated (at the ~10–15% level) by secondaries or by incompletely buried pre-mare craters. The degree to which these craters are outliers can be illustrated by considering that, if this calibration of the degradation rate is correct, the most degraded crater 12 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 on a ~3 Ga portion of the mare should have κt ≤ 16,440 m2. The observed 90th percentile κt on terrain of this age is ~21,000 m2 (see Figure 10, with n = 5.6 craters per 1000 km2). Even taking into account the uncertainty in κt, the most degraded craters are thus more degraded than expected on all surfaces we study. Although the 90th percentile degradation state does increase as a function of crater density (Figure 10), its quantitative inconsistency with the other parts of the crater degradation distribution suggests that considering only the most degraded crater on a given surface to understand unit chronology may be less reliable than examining the full range of crater degradation states. Because Figure 11a shows κt as a function of t, its slope is the effective diffusivity κ implied by the crater degradation measurements (Figure 11b; the derivative of equation (6)). 5. Discussion and Implications 5.1. Evolution of κ With Time Three observations stand out when considering the evolution of diffusivity with time implied by Figure 11. First, the most recent ~0.7 Ga apparently has higher κ (κ ~ 6–16 m2/Myr) than the period from ~0.7 to ~3.1 Ga. In this middle era, ~0.7 to ~3.1 Ga, κ appears approximately constant (κ ~ 4 ± 2 m2/Myr). The period from ~3.1 to 3.6 Ga has an increasing and higher diffusivity (κ ~ 6–20 m2/Myr). The interpretation of this diffusivity evolution is not straightforward for several reasons. First, by definition, the recent epoch of apparent higher diffusivity arises only from observations of the freshest craters. Since these craters start with steep slopes (close to the angle of repose), the early modification of these craters may be partially nondiffusive, with advective processes like landsliding and dry granular flows playing an important role [e.g., Kumar et al., 2013; Basilevsky et al., 2014]. The topographic diffusivity of typical slopes on the Moon might therefore be no different in this epoch from earlier in lunar history, but, on steeper slopes, the effective diffusivity might be enhanced. In other words, a better model for the topographic evolution of the Moon may require alteration of equation (1) so that the flux is nonlinear and increases as the slope increases toward a critical slope [Andrews and Bucknam, 1987; Howard, 1997; Roering et al., 1999; Pelletier, 2008; Basilevsky et al., 2014]. A second, less favored alternative that might explain the recent enhanced diffusivity era in Figure 11 is that it is symptomatic of a change in the impact flux in the ~700 Ma, since the form of Figure 11 is dependent on the model impact flux. However, complicating this idea is that small impacts are presumed to be the controlling factor for the diffusivity. If the impactors doing the diffusive work form at a rate proportional to the rate at that the larger craters we measured form, it is hard to understand how a change in the recent impact flux can be made compatible with Figure 11. In other words, if we wish to explain the recent increase in diffusivity by arguing that the model impact flux should be higher, a problem arises, which is that the reason the recent era has higher diffusivity in the first place is that there are fewer craters with κt ≤ ~5000 m2 than expected (i.e., κt increases more rapidly for the freshest craters; Figure 9). The higher diffusivities observed in the era prior to ~3.1 Ga are more plausibly related to the enhanced and exponentially increasing crater flux in this period, which is well established from the calibration of the impact crater record using the dated samples. Beyond the period constrained by our data, the rate of crater degradation was probably even more rapid [Head, 1975]. During the late heavy bombardment era, the flux was enhanced by a factor of at least 4× and potentially by 25× [e.g., Fassett and Minton, 2013] over what it was at the beginning of the period we measured here (post ~ 3.7 Ga), which was likely sufficient to erase a substantial number of D ≤ 5 km, pre-Imbrian craters. 5.2. Translating Diffusivity to Characteristic Erosion Rate From equation (3), if we know the curvature, ∇2h, and the diffusivity, κ, we can calculate the characteristic erosion rate on the Moon. (More precisely, what we can calculate is the characteristic magnitude of changes in surface topography as a function of time, both positive and negative.) For the Moon as a whole, using the LOLA 128 ppd (236.9 m/pixel) gridded data, the median absolute value of the curvature |∇2h| = 7.26 × 105 m1. These values imply a characteristic erosion (or deposition) rate over the last 3 Ga, using κ = 5.5 m2/Myr, of 0.4 mm/Myr. This is somewhat larger than the characteristic lunar erosion rate reported by Craddock and Howard [2000] (0.2 mm/Myr). FASSETT AND THOMSON ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 13 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 Interpreting these erosion rates requires some caution. First, the curvature and roughness of the Moon is scale-dependent [Rosenburg et al., 2011; Kreslavsky et al., 2013]. At meter-scale, topographic roughness is rapidly created by small impactors and then destroyed by micrometeoritic bombardment, so the upper portion of the surface is relatively dynamic. The net change in topography resulting from the roughness at these scales over long periods of time is close to zero, however. The average erosion rates we report above are at a scale where the topography is controlled by features of ~500 m and larger, which are typically able to survive on the lunar surface for billions of years. Second, the actual erosion rate in any given region of the Moon can be substantially greater or less than the characteristic rate we quote. On flat-lying plains, the net change of topography over long periods is effectively zero. On the portions of the Moon with the highest curvature, the rate of change of topography can be much higher than the characteristic value quoted. The 90th percentile curvature of the 128 ppd LOLA gridded data set—defined by calculating where 90% of the Moon has lower curvature—is 5.50 × 104 m1, consistent with an erosion rate of 3 mm/Myr, or nearly an order of magnitude faster than is typical for the median curvature observed at this ~240 m baseline. Third, the values for the curvature we calculate include both the maria and the highlands, whereas the diffusivity we use is derived only from craters in the maria. Although there is no reason to believe that the effective topographic diffusivity should be different in the highlands (for areas of equivalent topographic roughness and relief), additional assessment is needed to examine whether crater degradation and the diffusivity of the highlands differs from the maria. 5.3. Crater Age Estimation From Degradation State By determining κt values for a given crater, we can estimate its age given the calibration curve in Figure 11. Applying this technique and linking it to other approaches that allow bootstrapping the age of individual craters from other observational characteristics, such as optical or radar properties [e.g., Grier et al., 2001; Ghent et al., 2005; Bell et al., 2012], has the potential to be of substantial value for both planning future exploration and interpreting lunar geomorphology. As a consequence of the form of this calibration function, the uncertainty in the age derived using the degradation state we determine is highly dependent on the age of the crater. If we assume a ±30% uncertainty in the determined κt, the implied age for a crater with κt = 4000 is 0.30 Ga (+0.13, 0.11 Gyr). For a crater that is close to the median degradation state, with κt = 12,000 is 1.65 Ga (+1.11 Gyr, 0.71 Gyr). This larger relative uncertainty in age for middle-aged craters is what should be expected from Figure 11 and is also a simple consequence of the underlying process. Degraded craters evolve more slowly than fresh craters, and the diffusivity in this era was lower than during the early, mare-forming period when the flux was higher. For a crater formed in this earlier period, with highly degraded topography, κt = 24,000, the uncertainty in its age is <20%: its age is predicted to be 3.63 Ga (+0.23 Gyr, 0.56 Gyr). 5.4. Diffusion, Crater Lifetimes, Equilibrium, and Limitation of Crater Counting With Small Craters on the Moons With an estimate for the diffusivity of the lunar surface, we can predict the lifetime over which we can recognize craters of different sizes on the surface of the Moon as well. If we assume craters become impossible to recognize when they reach 1% of their initial depth and assume κ = 5 m2/Myr, the lifetime of a 100 m crater on the Moon’s surface is ~1.7 Gyr, the lifetime of a 50 m crater is ~400 Myr, and 20 m craters survive ~70 Myr. These lifetime estimates are likely to be upper limits since experience suggests that recognizing craters becomes impossible well before they have this little relief (recall that 1% of the initial depth of a D = 100 m crater is only 20 cm). Because these diffusional lifetimes of small craters are relatively short, the crater degradation process is intimately linked to the equilibrium population of craters on the lunar surface [e.g., Shoemaker, 1965; Gault, 1970]. As Shoemaker [1965] noted, in equilibrium, “below some limiting diameter….there will be a steady number of craters of any given size, no matter how long the cratering continues, and craters of a given size will exhibit a complete range of shape [degradation states] from fresh…to barely discernible.” The model presented here would suggest that the density of craters at any given size in this equilibrium condition is a function of how fast craters are removed, which is controlled directly by κ and topography, FASSETT AND THOMSON ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 14 Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets 10.1002/2014JE004698 and is independent of the age of the surface. In other words, once a surface reaches equilibrium, you cannot determine its formation age beyond knowing that it is greater than the time period required to reach equilibrium. If topographic diffusion is what controlling the equilibrium density of craters, a clear consequence is that there is no single equilibrium function that can be defined for the whole Moon. At the very least, the equilibrium density in any given place is a function of surface topography, or, more specifically, the Laplacian of topography (the topographic curvature). Given the substantial differences in topography between the highlands and maria, this may lead to different equilibrium densities in these two provinces. The equilibrium density is also likely to be affected by when craters of different sizes become unrecognizable, which might not be at same level of relative relief change for all sizes. Second-order factors that may influence κ, such as regolith thickness, could also play an important role. Fully delineating how crater degradation is linked to equilibrium thus requires measurements beyond the scope of this work. Regardless, most of the lunar surface—with the exception of regions resurfaced by young craters—is relatively old (billions of years). Our data support earlier results [Shoemaker, 1965; Gault, 1970] that imply that statistics of lunar craters with D <100 m should be avoided, unless one is interested in understanding crater retention rather than an age of a surface or a geologic event. 6. Conclusions In this study, we demonstrate that the evolution of a crater’s topography as it degrades can be treated as a topographic diffusion problem, as suggested by earlier work [Soderblom, 1970; Craddock and Howard, 2000]. Note that this does not necessarily mean that all the topographic degradation experienced by craters is a result of linear diffusive processes alone; nondiffusive processes such as landslides or deposition of distal ejecta likely contribute to the crater degradation as well. However, the reasonable fit of a diffusive model for topographic profiles of craters with a wide range of degradation states and ages suggest that the diffusive model is a useful first-order framework for this type of analysis. Other landforms on the Moon should experience similar evolution of their topography as well. However, since craters have consistent initial morphometry and form at a well-understood rate, they can be used to calibrate the rate of topographic diffusion. Over the last 3 Ga, we calculate that the average diffusivity experienced by a crater on the Moon is κ = 5.5 m2/Myr, which is consistent with a median erosion rate on the Moon of ~0.4 mm/Myr. The initial topographic diffusion of a crater is quicker than this average diffusivity represents, and the diffusion rate early in lunar history (> ~ 3.1 Ga) was likely faster as well. This calibration of the rate of crater degradation provides one strategy for estimating the age of individual craters on the lunar surface, as well as an independent technique that can help constrain the age of geologic units. Acknowledgments We would particularly like to acknowledge Jacquelyn Combellick and Waad Kahouli, who contributed to the measurements and data analysis that helped make this study possible. Mikhail Kreslavsky and an anonymous reviewer provided helpful comments. We thank the SELENE (KAGUYA) TC team and the SELENE Data Archive for acquiring and providing access to their data, as well as the LROC and LOLA teams for their excellent work. This research made use of the USGS Integrated Software for Imaging and Spectrometers (ISIS) and the Generic Mapping Tools (GMT). The data used for this paper are available on request from the corresponding author. FASSETT AND THOMSON References Andrews, D. J., and R. C. 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