Megapolitan America:
New Geography, New Reality
RD Residential Developer Conference
Washington, DC – September 20, 2006
Robert Lang, Ph.D.
Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech
What’s in This Talk?
The New “Megapolitans” Geography
for Projecting Growth
z Preliminary National Megapolitan
Projections
z National Housing Trend Analysis
z Case Analysis of the Arizona “Sun
Corridor”
z
Megapolitans in The News
USA Today July 2005
Megapolitans in The News
Business 2.0 November 2005
Business 2.0 November 2005
Megapolitan Area Centerfold
Why Study the Megapolitans
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Megapolitans are the New Geography of
Mid-Century America
Megapolitans Give a Physical Focus to the
Projection Numbers for American Growth
to 2020 and beyond
Megapolitans Vividly Profile the Nation’s
Biggest Market Opportunities
Megapolitan Geography
Original 2005
Megapolitan Geography
Megapolitan Area
Population and Growth Rates
Megapolitan Area
2004 Population*
00-04 Growth Rate
Arizona Sun Corridor
5.0
12.6
Cascadia
7.6
5.5
14.9
9.2
Front Range
3.9
6.6
Great Lakes
40.6
1.9
9.9
5.8
I-35 Corridor
15.5
7.4
Megalopolis
54.5
3.1
NorCal
15.1
4.6
Piedmont
19.3
6.7
SoCal
22.5
7.5
Megapolitan Total
208.8
5.0
United States
293.7
4.4
Florida Peninsula
Gulf Coast
*Population in Millions
Virginia Tech’s
Megapolitan Models
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Original 2005 Megapolitan Model Identifies
Contiguous Metro and Micropolitan Areas
that are Linked By Business Connectivity,
Transportation, and Environment
New 2006 Model Works on a Modified
Version on Census Methods that Track
Commuting. It is Very Close to the Census’s
Combined Statistical Area Criteria. The
Model Replaces the 2005 Geography
Virginia Tech’s New
Megapolitan Geography
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Produces 19 Megapolitan Areas, Most of
Which are Sub Units of the Original 2005
Megapolitan Areas
The New Macropolitan Areas are Consistent
with Census Bureau Geography
The New Population Threshold to Qualify as
a Megapolitan Area is 5 Million People by
2040.
The New Megas Also…
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Will Reach a Census-Defined Employment
Interchange Measure (or EIM) of 15
Percent by 2040
Have Two or More Metropolitan Areas with
Anchor Principal Cities Between 50 and
200 miles apart
Are Never More Than a Day’s Drive from
End to End
Are Large-Scale, But Not Enormous
2006 Metropolitan Hierarchy
Types
Descriptions
Examples
Metropolitan
Statistical
Area
An “urbanized area” or “principal
city” with at least 50,000 people
plus surrounding counties with a
25% “Employment Interchange
Measure” (EIM) in 2000
Pittsburgh, Denver
Combined
Statistical
Area
Two or more adjacent micro and
metropolitan areas that have an
EIM of at least 15% in 2000
Washington/
Baltimore,
Cleveland/Akron
Megapolitan
Area—Defined
by Virginia Tech
Metropolitan
Institute
Two or more metropolitan areas
with anchor principal cities
between 50 and 200 miles apart
that will have an EIM of 15% by
2040 based on projection
Sun Corridor
(Phoenix/Tucson),
Northern California
(San Francisco/
Sacramento)
Mega-Region
Defined by RPA
and Lincoln
Institute
Large, connected networks of
metropolitan areas that maintain
environmental, cultural, and
functional linkages
Piedmont, Texas
Triangle
MI’s Urban Hierarchy
Megapolitan
MSA
Metropolitan
Statistical
Area
CSA
Combined
Statistical
Area
Megapolitan
Area
Evolving 20th Century
Metropolitan Form
21st Century Megapolitan Form
The New Megapolitan Map
Megapolitan Projections
Megapolitan Basics
#
Megapolitan Area
and Region
Anchor Metro(s)
2005
Population
2000
Land Area
(square miles)
Megalopolis
1 New England Megalopolis
2 Core Megalopolis
3 Chesapeake Megalopolis
Boston/Providence
New York/Philadelphia
Washington/Baltimore
8,276,116
33,527,905
9,797,097
11,780
14,769
12,089
Cleveland/Pittsburgh
Cincinnati/Columbus
Detroit
Chicago/Milwaukee
7,067,896
5,344,052
8,969,861
12,943,126
16,129
12,693
19,000
18,606
Charlotte/Raleigh
Atlanta
7,012,769
6,941,018
15,732
10,194
Tampa/Orlando
Miami
7,851,525
5,971,663
16,836
7,530
Houston
San Antonio/Austin
Dallas
6,052,193
3,965,018
6,400,885
17,584
16,536
19,000
Denver
Phoenix/Tucson
3,880,126
4,988,564
20,764
31,882
Seattle/Portland
San Francisco/Sacremento
Los Angeles/San Diego
6,665,038
11,288,313
21,720,656
23,989
24,188
49,032
Midwest
4
5
6
7
Steel Corridor
Ohio Valley
Michigan Corridor
Lake Front
Piedmont
8 Carolina Piedmont
9 Georgia Piedmont
Florida
10 Florida Corridor
11 Treasure Coast
Texas Triangle
12 Texas Gulf
13 Texas Corridor
14 Metroplex
Mountain West
15 Front Range
16 Sun Corridor
Pacific
17 Cascadia
18 Northern California
19 Southern California
Megapolitan Totals
USA Total
178,663,821
294,471,549
358,333
2,959,064
Megapolitan Population Growth
#
Megapolitan Area and
Region
2000
Population
2030
Population
Growth
Rate
8,132,941
32,651,971
7,497,468
9,781,266
39,043,761
10,511,274
20.3%
19.6%
40.2%
7,139,981
5,198,015
8,835,525
12,465,780
7,434,813
6,435,199
10,171,779
15,479,889
4.1%
23.8%
15.1%
24.2%
6,459,581
6,173,824
9,338,724
9,564,818
44.6%
54.9%
6,975,456
5,498,172
11,107,530
8,663,974
59.2%
57.6%
5,699,777
3,573,947
5,740,656
8,599,175
5,928,268
9,315,212
50.9%
65.9%
62.3%
3,582,619
4,295,384
5,706,249
7,773,941
59.3%
81.0%
6,259,234
10,787,624
20,325,337
9,105,938
15,457,666
27,877,678
45.5%
43.3%
37.2%
167,293,292
282,177,838
227,297,154
377,478,696
35.9%
33.8%
Megalopolis
1
2
3
New England Megalopolis
Core Megalopolis
Chesapeake Megalopolis
Midwest
4
5
6
7
Steel Corridor
Ohio Valley
Michigan Corridor
Lake Front
Piedmont
8
9
Carolina Piedmont
Georgia Piedmont
Florida
10 Florida Corridor
11 Treasure Coast
Texas Triangle
12 Texas Gulf
13 Texas Corridor
14 Metroplex
Mountain West
15 Front Range
16 Sun Corridor
Pacific
17 Cascadia
18 Northern California
19 Southern California
Megapolitan Total
US Total
US Housing Projections
People Turning 65 Æ 1950-2025
Thousands
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
Source: Rosen Consulting
20
25
20
20
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
00
19
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
19
65
19
60
19
55
19
50
1000
Housing Choices of Seniors
Housing Type
Detached
All Attached
Owner
All Seniors
69%
24%
80%
Senior Movers
35%
54%
41%
Source: American Housing Survey 2003. New movers means moved in past
year. Annual elderly movers are about 5% of all elderly households; 75%+ of
all elderly will change housing type between ages 65 and 80. Manufactured
homes excluded.
US Future Housing Shares
Housing Type
Apartment
Owner Attached
Small Lot (<7k sf)
Large Lot (>7k sf)
2004
24%
11%
15%
51%
2020
28%
18%
20%
35%
From Arthur C. Nelson, Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech
Source: 2003 data from American Housing Survey 2003. 2020
figures derived from preference surveys.
Sun Corridor Projections
Projected Housing Units, 2010
Housing Units
2010
Housing Appreciation by Sun
Corridor Urban Realm
400%
350%
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Northwest
Valley
West Valley
Central Valley
Northeast
Valley
East Valley
1 Year
Mid Corridor
5 Years
Foothills
10 Years
Tucson Valley
Santa Cruz
Valley
San Pedro
Valley
The Sun Corridor’s
Projections 2004 to 2040
Projection
2040
Percent Change
Population
9.3M
109.7
Employment
4.9M
93.4
No. of Housing Units
3.7M
146.2
Com./Public Sq. Feet
2.4B
226.4
Housing
--
$541.1B
Commercial/Public
--
$482.3B
Demographic
Construction
Investment
Source: Virginia Tech Megapolitan Projections
Megapolitan America Book
Due out in Summer 2007
www.mi.vt.edu
New From the Brookings Press