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Public Opinion and Political
Socialization
Chapter 10
Public Opinion and Importance
Public opinion is what the public thinks about
an issue or a particular set of issues.
Polls are used to estimate public opinion.
Presidential polling has been around since
1916
George Gallup was the first to use scientific
polling methods to determine public opinion.
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Efforts to Influence Public
Opinion
Federalist Papers were one of the first major
attempts to change public opinion
Thomas Paine’s Common Sense and The
Crisis
Uncle Tom’s Cabin
Fahrenheit 911
The Earliest Public Opinion
Research
As early as 1824, newspapers have tried to predict
election winners using polls.
In 1883, the Boston Globe used exit polls to try to
predict winners in presidential elections.
Walter Lippman’s Public Opinion (1922) looked
closely at how we measure public opinions.
Public opinion polling as we know it today was
developed in the 1930s
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The Earliest Public Opinion
Research
In 1916, Literary Digest mailed survey postcards
to potential voters in an attempt to predict the
outcome.
From 1920 to 1932, they predicted every presidential
election correctly.
In 1936 when they predicted that Alf Landon would beat
FDR. FDR won in a landslide, taking all but two states.
Literary Digest used straw polls that are now seen as
highly problematic.
Is polling always accurate?
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The Gallup Organization
The Gallup Organization - successfully predicted the 1936
election.
Founder George Gallup
Continued to be successful in predicting electoral
outcomes until the 2012 presidential election.
George Gallup
Dissertation on how to measure the readership of
newspapers
Expanded research to study public opinion about
politics
Increased use of polling to market products and candidates
How successful has the Gallup Poll been?
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The American National Election
Studies
Focuses on attitudes of the electorate
How voters voted
Party affiliation
Opinions of parties and candidates
Surveys before and after mid-term and presidential
elections
Polls - Designing the Survey
and Sample
Determining the content and phrasing of
the questions
Wording is crucial
Push Polls provide information on an opponent that would lead to
respondents to vote against the candidate
Selecting the sample
Population
Random sampling – each person has the same statistical
chance of being contacted
Stratified sampling – the best method…use Census data
and contact same number of each race, ethnicity, age
range, etc
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Polls - Contacting Respondents
Telephone polls
Most Common
Random digit dialing survey by computers
Tracking polls people are polled 24 hours
In-person interviews
Exit polls – interviews with voters after they cast their
vote on Election Day
Internet polls
Some polling companies have devised scientific
strategies to ensure that the results of Internet polling
are legitimate, but they aren’t to be confused with socalled Web polls that allow anyone to weigh in on a
topic.
What does a daily tracking poll look like?
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Polls - Analyzing the Data
Reveals implications for public policy and
political campaigns
Data analyzed by computers
Subgroups of population, such as men versus women,
age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed
Reporting the data
News organizations or campaigns
Shortcomings of Polling
Survey Error
Margin of error - Natural errors in statistical measurement; 3-5% is
considered a reasonably small rate of error
Sampling error - Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample
Limited Response Option
Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove) - May not give respondents sufficient room
to answer
“Feeling thermometer” - Respondents rate feelings 0-100
Lack of Information
Filter questions - Gauge how much respondents know about or have
thought about an issue
Feelings stronger about some issues
Many people lack an opinion on certain policies
Policies that don’t affect people directly
Policies that don’t involve moral values
Foreign policy - Less likely to generate interest
Domestic policy - More likely to generate interest
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Forming Political Opinions
Gender - Women historically more liberal than men
Race and ethnicity - Differences among and within races and ethnicities
Age affects political socialization
Religion shapes political beliefs
Family influence - Children learn political beliefs at early age
Peers are influential in middle or high school
Political socialization in school
The Mass Media
Traditional news sources…Americans are turning away from them
Nontraditional news media…Talk radio, online magazines, blogs
Cable and Internet…Often skewed
Political leaders use media to influence public
President uses media as a bully pulpit
Political knowledge and political participation…Have a reciprocal effect on
each other
Americans’ level of civic knowledge…Lower than 50 years ago
Gender gap…Also affected by education, number of children, and marital
status
Do men and women think differently about
political issues?
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What are the ideological identifications of firstyear college students?
What is the extent of Americans’ political
knowledge?
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The Effects of Public Opinion
on Politics
Public has become more of a critical
player in national and international
politics
Polling a key part of that involvement
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