KCCI - Country Wrap (January 2015)

Afghanistan
(January 2015)
Similarly, both countries formed Pak-Afghan Joint Chamber of Commerce (PAJCCI) in November 2010 for
solving the problems faced by Pakistani and Afghani traders. PAJCCI was formed with the collaborative
efforts of Karachi Chamber of Commerce & Industry (KCCI), Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce & Industry
(ACCI), KPK Chamber of Commerce (KPCCI) and Chaman Chamber of Commerce (CCCI) and KPK Chamber
of Commerce (KPCCI).
Trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan
During Fiscal Year 2014, Pakistan exported goods of worth $ 1,244.7Mn while it imported goods of $
49.86Mn from Afghanistan. Pakistan exports several commodities to Afghanistan like salt, sulphur, sugar and
confectionery, animal or vegetable fats and oils, articles of iron and steel, oil from petrol & bituminous
mineral, milk and cream, wheat or meslin flour, rice, plywood etc. On the other hand, Afghanistan exports
cotton, mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, iron and steel, edible fruits, nuts, vegetables, roots and tubers,
salt, sulphur, stone, raw hides and skins, leather, machinery, boilers, wood and articles of wood, dairy
products, honey and carpets to Pakistan.
Smuggling: Barrier that is hampering the growth of Pak-Afghan trade
The quantum of unofficial trade is said to be very significant at the border of Afghanistan due to which,
according to estimates, every day million dollars of goods are moved in and out of Afghanistan through
trucks that go unrecorded. Khyber Pass, a part of historical Silk road between Pakistan and Afghanistan, is
reported to have been widely used for parallel trade which has adversely affected the national exchequers
on both sides of the border. The situation calls for increasing scruitiny and by the installation of modern
scanning machines, biometrics and tracking system at Pak-Afghan border.
Potential for enhancing bilateral trade relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan
-There is a great potential for Pakistan to revive its cement exports to Afghanistan that have witnessed a
massive decline of 58% in July 2014 on year on year basis.
-Similarly, Pakistan can also look for providing expertise and resources to the growing services sector of
Afghanistan.
--There exists strong potential to enhance formal trade between the two contries by restricting parallel
channels. There are also bright prospects to improve transit trade which necessitates proper implementation
and utilization of APTTA.
GDP per Capita
$
1,100
1,100
GDP growth
%
12.5
3.1
0%
-9.40%
-3.01%
$ Mn
6,867
6,660
Revenue (% of GDP)*
%
25.00
26.60
6.40%
Expenditures (% of GDP)*
%
25.10
24.50
-0.60%
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)*
%
0.00
2.10
2.10%
Growth rates of Exports*
%
-3.00
-3.40
-0.40%
Growth rate of imports*
%
8.70
-0.10
-8.80%
Trade Balance (% of GDP)*
%
13.8
6.2
-7.60%
Current Account (% of GDP)*
%
4.0
2.5
-1.50%
CPI*
%
6.20
7.4
1.20%
Gross International Reserves*
Sources: KCCI Research, CIA Factbook, *ADB
10.2
3.0
0.4
2.2
1.8
2.6
200
1.1
400
773.8
1,058.6
1,244.8
21.8
600
49.9
800
44.9
1000
680.3
732.2
1200
831.6
1400
975.6
1,031.7
1600
1,204.6
1800
13.1
2000
1,380.0
1,864.9
Trade between Pakistan & Afghanistan (FY04 - Dec.'14)
0
Trade Balance ($ Mn)
Pak. Exports (Mn $)
Pak. Imports (Mn $)
Note: Trade data may differ from Trademap, UNComm Trade and PBS
Source: KCCI Research, SBP
Afghanistan Afghani Vs. Pakistani Rupee
1 Afghanistan Afghani is equal to 1.75 Pak. Rupee as on Jan. 20, 2014
2.02
1.97
1.92
1.87
1.82
1.77
1.72
AFN/PKR
1-Jan-15
1-Nov-14
1-Sep-14
1-Jul-14
1-May-14
1-Mar-14
1-Jan-14
1-Nov-13
1-Sep-13
1-Jul-13
1-May-13
1-Mar-13
1-Jan-13
1.67
1-Nov-12
Moreover, the two states have also signed an MoU for the construction of rail tracks in Afghanistan to connect
with Pakistan Railways (PR). In July 2012, Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to extend APTTA to Tajikistan
which will be the first step for the establishment of a North-South trade corridor. The proposed agreement
will provide facilities to Tajikistan to use Pakistan’s Gwadar and Karachi ports for its imports and exports
while Pakistan will enjoy trade with Tajikistan under similar terms to the transit arrangement with Afghanistan.
32.26%
1-Sep-12
Deep rooted Pak-Afghan bilateral trade relations
The bilateral trade relations among the two countries are deep rooted as Pakistan provides access to
Afghanistan for trade through its seaports while later provides Pakistan with a direct routes to trade with
Central Asia. In July 2010, a Memorandum of understanding (MoU) was reached for the Afghan-Pakistan
Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA), which was later inked by the Ministers of Commerce of both the countries
in October 2010 for giving way to enhanced trade cooperations. This is an agrement of vital importance
though, there is still a need to optimize the execution of APTTA to yield the full potential of the agreement.
Change
45.30
1-Jul-12
Pakistan shares strong diplomatic relations with Afghanistan
There has been strong friendly relations between the two countries strengthened by religious affiliations and
closer trade ties making Pakistan-Afghanistan to be termed as "inseparable brothers". Both states are part of
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and are working collectively to find solutions of
the issues like possible defense cooperation and intelligence sharing as well as further enhancing trade.
2013
34.25
1-May-12
Pakistan remains the major trading partner of Afghanistan
Pakistan is the top trading partner of Afghanistan both in terms of exports and imports. Major export
commodities of Afghanistan are fruits and nuts, handwoven carpets, wool, cotton, hides and pelts, precious
and semi-precious gems while its main export partners are Pakistan 33.1%, India 24.9%, Tajikistan 8.7%,
USA 5.8%. Likewise, major import commodities are machinery and other capital goods, food, textiles,
petroleum products which are mainly imported from Pakistan 25.8%, US 17.4%, Russia 8.4%, India 5.5%,
China 5.4%, Kazakhstan 4.5%, Germany 4.3%.
2012
$ Bn
403.2
Major agricultural commodities and revenue generating sectors
The important agricultural commodities produced in Afghanistan include fruits, wheat, lambskins, sheep skins,
opium, wool, mutton, nuts etc. Other than agriculture, the major revenue generating sectors of the country are
bricks, textiles, soap, furniture, shoes, fertilizer, apparel, food-products, non-alcoholic beverages, mineral
water, cement; handwoven carpets; natural gas, coal and copper.
Unit
GDP (PPP)
2.6
Economic situation in Afghanistan
A recent changeover in the economic scenario of Afghanistan, marked by the withdrawal of NATO forces
and then drying up of foreign aid, is likely to affect economic variables like inflation and trade patterns of
the country. In the past, massive foreign aids have played an important role in spurring growth in education
and health sectors of the country. On the other hand, growing revenue shortfall is having its implications in the
form of bloated unemployment rate due to curtailed spending on its major public programs. However
revenue of Afghan state-owned businesses have declined by 90% in the year 2014 making govt. to consider
the option of privatization.
Economic Indicators
Indicators
1-Jan-12
Afghanistan - Country Profile
Afghanistan, a mountainous and landlocked area, has strong strategic importance in Asian region as it
provides a crossroad to Central Asia and a junction of trade routes between South and West Asia. The
country is also renowned for its immense natural resources claiming to have atleast 24 world class mineral
deposits which include reserves of iron ore, copper ore, gold, silver, zinc and rare earth elements, estimated
to be cumulatively worth of ~$ 1Tn. Despite inheriting such a huge potential, Afghanistan is going through
several systematic shortcomings due to prolonged war situation in its territory which has been further
worsened by the security problems.
1-Mar-12
KCCI - Country Wrap
Source: KCCI Research, OANDA.com
Key Memberships
Afghanistan mainly has its membership in ADB, CICA, CP, ECO, FAO,
IAEA, IBRD, IDB, IFC, ILO, IMF, SAARC, UN, UNCTAD, UNESCO,
UNIDO, UNWTO, WCO, WHO, WIPO, WMO, WTO.
Commodity Wise Exports of Pakistan to Afghanistan- (FY14)
Others
Salt, Sulphur, Stone, Lime & Cement
Sugars and sugar confectionery
Animal or Vegetable Fats and Oils
Articles of Iron and Steel
Oil from Petrol & Bituminous Mineral
Milk & Cream
Wheat or Meslin Flour
Paper Uncoated
Rice
Plywood, Veneered Panels & Laminated…
Bread, Pastry, Cakes
Paints & Varnishes of Synthetic Polymers
Soap, Organic Surf-Act Products
Electrical Storage Batteries
Amount in $ Mn
0
350.12
215.57
169.87
99.94
75.78
66.11
48.88
43.76
36.61
36.57
23.06
22.33
20.88
18.23
17.09
Not Available
100
200
300
400
Source: KCCI Research, SBP
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared by KCCI Research & Development Cell. The
information contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information
obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has
not been independently verified. Contact: [email protected]