Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
Kneza Viseslava 66
11000 Belgrade
Republic of Serbia
MONTHLY CLIMATE BULLETIN
FOR SERBIA
MARCH 2017
Belgrade, April 5th2017
Division for Climate Monitoring and Climate Forecast
Department of National Center for Climate Change, Climate Model Development and Disaster
Risk Assessment
web: http://www.hidmet.gov.rs
mail: [email protected]
Second warmest March in Serbia, and the warmest on record at MMS Palic,
Sombor and Negotin. Dry March in Zrenjanin, Kikinda, Negotin and Vranje.
Overview of the synoptic situation
Changeable, chilly, settled at the end of the month
The beginning of the month was marked by establishment of westerly circulation following
passage of the cold atmospheric front from northwest and upper air trough across the Balkans
eastward. Overnight between 2 and 3 March was characterized by passage of the new
atmospheric front that mostly affected north of the country in terms of increased cloudiness
and light rain. In the ensuing days, cyclone circulation in the Biscay bay and west of the
continent maintained the ridge above the Balkans and southern Europe as well as settled
weather, foggy morning across the continent, and predominantly sunny throughout the day.
New frontal disruption took place on 5 March. Strengthening of southwesterly circulation
along with cyclone development in Northern Adriatic brought first cloudiness and somewhat
warmer weather, followed by changeable weather with precipitation. At the end of the first
decade, cyclone slowly crossing from the Ionian to the Aegean Sea mostly affected weather in
southeastern and southern Serbia.
Subsequently, advection of Arctic air mass in the spatial upper air trough across northerly and
central areas of the continent southward, as of March 10, brought rain, and consequently
cooling, after the passage of the cold atmospheric front. Cloudy and chilly weather, with snow
on the mountains remained almost until the end of the second decade of the month.
At the beginning of the third decade, due to the deepening of the trough above the British
islands and Iberian Peninsula and disruption of meridional circulation, the rise of the
geopotential and forming of the ridge took place above our territory, producing settled
weather. Until the middle of the third decade, cyclone activity persisted above the Pyrenean
Peninsula and northeast of the continent, whereas the Balkan Peninsula was under the
influence of the ridge, gradually disrupting as of March 25, that is, due to the deepening of the
upper air cyclone from northeast geopotential drop took place. The period marked by settled
weather was briefly interrupted the following day, with moderate and complete cloudiness,
accompanied by scattered rain, on the mountains with sleet and snow. Consequently, the
period from March 27, until the end of the month was marked by settled weather, given the
fact that anticyclone remained on the ground, while the rise of the geopotential at altitude was
recorded in last days of the month, as well as establishment of the ridge, with the trough
crossing toward the Black Sea.
*Division for aviation meteorological forecast
Air temperature
Mean monthly air temperature
Mean monthly air temperature in March ranged from 1,1ºС at Kopaonik up to 11,5ºС in
Belgrade (Figure 1).
Departure of the mean March air temperature from the normal1 for the 1981–2010 base period
ranged from 2,8ºС in Sjenica to 4,6ºС in Negotin (Figure 2).
Based on the percentile method2, mean air temperature in March was in the categories of
extremely warm and very warm (Figure 3).
Figure 1. Spatial distribution of mean monthly
air temperature (°C) during March 2017
Figure 2. Spatial distribution of mean
monthly air temperature anomaly (°C) during
March 2017
1
Term normal refers to climatological standard normal, that is, the average value of a particular climate element,
calculated for the period from January 1, 1981 to December 31, 2010
2
nth percentile of a variable refers to the value of the observed variable below which there is n percent of data previously
arranged in an ascending order
Figure 3. Spatial distribution of mean monthly air
temperature according to the percentile method
during March 2017
Based on the percentile method, mean daily air temperature in Belgrade, was in the normal
and warm category most of March, and extremely warm in the middle of first and beginning
of the third decade (Figure 4).
Figure4. Monthly course of mean daily air temperature in Belgrade during March 2017
March 2017 was the second warmest in Serbia for the period from 1951 to 2017. Recordbreaking warm March was in Palic, Sombor and Negotin for the operation period of
meteorological stations (Figure 5, 6, 7 and 8).
Figure 5. Rank of the warmest and coldest Marchies for Serbia for the 1951-2017 period relative to the
1981-2010 period
Figure 6. Rank of the 15 warmest Marches in descending order at Palic for the 1947-2017 period
Figure 7. Rank of the 15 warmest Marches in descending order in Sombor for the 1942-2017 period
Figure 8. Rank of the 15 warmest Marches in descending order in Negotin for the 1927-2017 period
Figure 9. Assessment of the air temperature and precipitation in Serbia for March with the accompanying terciles
compared to the 1981-2010 base period
Figure 9 shows assessment of the air temperature and precipitations sums for Serbia in March
based on the tercile distribution relative to the 1981-2010 base period. It can be noted that
March 2017 was the warmer with the air temperature above upper tercile and precipitation
sums on the boundary of lower tericile.
Maximum air temperature
Mean maximum air temperature in March ranged from 5,0ºС at Kopaonik up to 17,2ºС in
Negotin.
Based on the percentile method, March maximum air temperature was in the category of very
warm across most of the country, and extremely warm on Palic, Sombor, Kikinda, Veliko
Gradiste and Negotin.
The highest maximum daily air temperature of 27,6ºС was measured in Valjevo on March 22.
Heat wave3 was recorded across most of Serbia lasting from 20 to 24 March.
One ice day4 was registered at Crni Vrh and Dimitrovgrad, whereas Kopaonik observed 5 ice
days.
Most of Serbia observed one to two summer days5, three were recorded in Nis and Krusevac
and 4 days were registered in Cuprija and Leskova
3
Heat wave, according to the percentile method, is a period during which maximum daily air temperature is in
the very warm and extremely warm categories for 5 days or longer
4
Ice day is defined as the day with maximum air temperature below 0°С
5
Summer day refers to a day with maximum air temperature 25°C and above
Minimum air temperature
March mean minimum air temperature ranged from -2,3ºС at Kopaonik up to 6,9ºС in
Belgrade.
Based on the percentile method, mean monthly minimum air temperature was in the category
of very warm across most of Serbia, in warm category in Novi Sad, Sremska Mitrovica,
Veliko Gradiste and Sjenica, and extremely warm in Valјevo, Belgrade, Negotin, Cuprija and
Zlatibor.
The lowest minimum daily air temperature of -7.0ºС was observed in Sjenica on 28 March.
Apart from Belgrade and Valjevo, frost days6, were recorded across the entire Serbia. In the
lowland, the number of frost days in March ranged from 1 in Loznici, Negotin and Kralјevo
to 9 days in Veliko Gradiste, which is 1 to 11 days below the March average. In the mountain
areas, the number of frost days ranged from 9 days on Zlatibor to 22 days at Kopaonik.
Figure 10 depicts the monthly course of the mean, maximum and minimum daily air
temperature for Belgrade in March.
Figure10. Monthly course of mean, maximum and minimum daily air temperature
6
Frost day is defined as the day with minimum air temperature lower than 0°С
PRECIPITATION
The registered amount of March precipitation ranged from 16,9 mm in Vranje to 80,9 mm at
Kopaonik (Figure 11).
Precipitation total, relative to the normal for the 1981-2010 base period, ranged from 39% in
Negotin to 123% in Sombor (Figure 12).
Based on the percentile method, precipitation sums were in the normal category in most of
Serbia and dry category in Zrenjanin, Kikinda, Negotin and Vranje(Figure 13).
Figure 11. Spatial distribution of monthly
precipitation sums (mm)
Figure 12. Spatial distribution of monthly
precipitation sums in the percentages of normal
for 1981-2010 base period
Figure 13. Monthly precipitation sums according to the percentile method
The number of days with precipitation in March ranged from 7 days in Kikinda to 14 days in
Dimitrovgrad.
Snow cover was observed in the mountain areas. The maximum number of days with snow
cover, total of 31, was registered at Kopaonik.
The maximum snow depth of 65cm was measured at Kopaonik on March 14.
Daily and cumulative precipitation sums for Belgrade, Loznica and Kopaonik are shown in
Figures 14, 15, i 16.
Figure 14.
Figure 15.
Figure 16.
SUNSHINE DURATION (INSOLATION)
March insolation ranged from 157,9 hours at Kopaonik to 197,9 hours in Banatski Karlovac
(Figure 17).
Sunshine duration in March ranged from 115% in Leskovac up to 148% in Pozega relative to
the normal for the 1981-2010 base period (Figure 18).
Figure 17. Insolation in March 2017, expressed
in hours
Figure 18. Insolation in March 2017, expressed
in the percentages of normal