Jarosław Tondera1
Agata Jagiełło2
DANGEROUS LIAISONS. THE BALKAN WAY TO EUROPE
Introduction
The Balkans in the sphere of European security are an important and significant
element. Historical conditions and contemporary geopolitics determine the Balkan
syndrome as a constant challenge for uniting Europe. Western influences in some
countries or areas of the Balkans are not always dominant both with respect to the
members of the European Union as well as those who aspire to accessing it3.
The European Parliament publishes on its website the most important
assumptions concerning European integration, whose legal basis is Article 49 of
the Treaty on European Union (establishes which states may apply) and Article
2 (describes the EU’s founding values)4. “The EU’s enlargement policy aims to
unite European countries in a common political and economic project. Guided by
the Union’s values and subject to strict conditions, enlargement has proved to be
one of the most successful tools in promoting political, economic and societal
reforms, and in consolidating peace, stability and democracy across the continent.
Enlargement policy also enhances the EU’s presence on the global stage”5.
In a dynamic, contemporary politics of international security the Balkans are
still the area of international concern. Russia’s neo-imperialist policy seems to
1
Jarosław Tondera, MA., Wy sza Szkoła Informatyki Stosowanej i Zarz dzania pod auspicjami
Polskiej Akademii Nauk.
2
Agata Jagiełło, MA, BSc, Wojskowa Akademia Techniczna.
3
Recent documents concerning the EU Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Policy can be found
on the website of the European Commission: http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/
4 cf. Consolidated versions of the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the
European Union - Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union - Protocols - Declarations
annexed to the Final Act of the Intergovernmental Conference which adopted the Treaty of Lisbon,
signed on 13 December 2007, retrieved 20.08.2016, http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legalcontent/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12012M/ TXT&from=PL.
5 The Enlargement of the Union, retrieved 20.08.2016, http://www.europarl.Europa.eu/atyourservice
/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_6.5.1.html.
265
favor the wake of the Balkan antagonisms, threatening the security of the region as
well as Europe. The question of the Balkan Europeanness is still open. It is obvious
on a geographical plane, however, it is still debatable on the mental one.
“Despite the fact that war in the Western Balkans region ended (…), there are
still tensions and unsolved issues between countries in the region. These are the
primary reasons why the region has not progressed at the pace it should. However,
a certain amount of progress can be seen, at least on the level of political elites”6.
The aim of the article is to show the complex geopolitical situation in the
Balkans and precarious, both internal and external, relations in respective countries
of the region. Nevertheless, despite the differences in these countries they strive
towards one goal – accession to the European Union.
The Balkans
The Balkans is a term used to refer generally to the area of the Balkan
Peninsula. This name is not merely a geographical concept, its context is much
broader. The Balkans is primarily a historical-cultural community. The term refers
to the Balkans in the narrow sense to countries such as: Albania, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia, Turkey
(European part), Serbia without Vojvodina and Croatia (Dalmatian part). In a wider
sense the Balkans also include the Asian part of Turkey and the entire postYugoslav area, therefore also Slovenia, and countries such as Romania and
Moldova and even Hungary. The Balkans signify the diversity of languages,
religions and cultures; the turbulent history, the unsettled conflicts and feuds. The
Balkans is also a sort of community resulting from the very same historical
experience and cultural background.
In a recent monograph of Božidar Jezernik Wild Europe. Balkans in the eyes of
Western travelers one can find an interesting definition of the space and Balkan
mentality, where the name “Balkans” refers not so much to a specific area, but to
the idea of localized chaos, balkanization, primitive disputes and primitive ways of
their settlement7.
Encyclopaedia Britannica in the current online version provides the following
definition of the Balkans: ”Balkans, also called Balkan Peninsula, easternmost of
Europe’s three great southern peninsulas. There is not universal agreement on the
region’s components. The Balkans are usually characterized as comprising
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia,
Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia with all or part of each of those
countries located within the peninsula. Portions of Greece and Turkey are also
6
L.Vesnic-Alujevic, European Integration of Western Balkans: From Reconciliation To European
Future, Brussels 2012, 40.
7
cf., Bozidar Jezernik, Wild Europe : the Balkans in the gaze of Western travellers, London 2004.
266
located within the geographic region generally defined as the Balkan Peninsula,
and many descriptions of the Balkans include those countries too. Some define the
region in cultural and historical terms and others geographically, though there are
even different interpretations among historians and geographers. Moreover, for
some observers, the term “Balkans” is freighted with negative connotations
associated with the region’s history of ethnic divisiveness and political upheaval”8.
Fig. 1 The Balkans –political map
Source: retrieved 20/08/2016, http://www.turkishweekly.net/20 15/05/06/news/deepening-relationsbetween-the-balkans-and-turkey-economic-growth-and-patterns-of-development/
C.L. Sulzberger, American journalist and essayist, in his memoires A Long
Row of Candles. Memoires and Diaries writes about the Balkans as follows: “The
Balkans, which in Turkish means “mountains,” run roughly from the Danube to the
Dardanelles, from Istria to Istanbul, and is a term for the little lands of Hungary,
Rumania, Jugoslavia, Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, and part of Turkey, although
neither Hungarian nor Greek welcomes inclusion in the label. It is, or was, a gay
peninsula filled with sprightly people who ate peppered foods, drank strong
liquors, wore flamboyant clothes, loved and murdered easily and had a splendid
talent for starting wars. Less imaginative westerners looked down on them with
secret envy, sniffing at their royalty, scoffing at their pretensions, and fearing their
savage terrorists. Karl Marx called them “ethnic trash.” I, as a footloose youngster
in my twenties, adored them”9.
8
9
Encyclopaedia Britannica, retrieved 20/08/2016, https://www.britannica.com/place/Bal kans.
C. L. Sulzberger, A Long Row of Candles. Memoires and Diaries. New York, 1969, 109.
267
Balkan periphery of Europe
The Balkans lying on the periphery of Europe have not always participated in
the mainstream of European history, although also in these areas occurred events
that directly affected not only European but also worldwide law and order.
Perhaps these facts have contributed to creating the negative image of the
Balkans by, especially Western, Europe. Slogans such as “sick man of Europe” or
“Balkan cauldron” have become the standard in the perception of the Balkan events
over the centuries. However, an assumption could made that perhaps the very
Balkan nations themselves have contributed to this perception.
Until the nineteenth century the Balkans were situated outside European
history. Their history marked the Ottoman Porta, locating the Balkans closer to the
Orient than Europeanism. Only in the second half of that century there began the
expulsion of the Turks from the Balkans with creation of national liberation
movements and organized uprising against the Turks domination. The Balkan
crises began in 1874. That year, Bosnia and Herzegovina rebelled against Ottoman
rule, beginning the First Balkan Crisis. When Turkey refused to reform its
governing structure, Serbia declared war on the Ottoman Empire on 30 June 1876.
Russia, based on its foreign policy of pan-Slavism, or fraternal allegiance between
all Slavic peoples of eastern Europe, declared war on the Ottomans in due course.
Britain, interested in maintaining the balance of power and protecting its
Mediterranean holdings that depended upon the status quo, nominally supported
the Turkish sultan. On 31 January 1878, Sultan Hamid II of Turkey sought peace.
Otto von Bismarck hosted the peace conference, known as the Congress of
Berlin. Britain, concerned that growing Russian power at the expense of the
Ottoman Empire would tilt the balance of power in Russia’s favor, secured
Constantinople and the Balkans away from Moscow's dominion. Bosnia and
Herzegovina were turned over to Austria-Hungary and Russia pledged to abandon
its support of Serbia nationalism--all in the name of the balance of power.
However, with Serbian claims disregarded, continued conflict lay in the future.
As a result of Russia’s obvious political losses at the Congress of Berlin,
Russia abandoned its alliance with Germany in the Three Emperors’ League.
Bismarck, in turn, recommitted Germany and Austria-Hungary together in a Dual
Alliance in 1879. In 1882, Italy was asked to join the Dual Alliance, thus
converting it into a Triple Alliance that lasted until the beginning of World War
I in 1914. The balance of power seemed to be working. When, in 1885, the Second
Balkan Crisis erupted between Bulgaria and Serbia, Russia threatened to occupy
Bulgaria, but Austria stepped in to prevent Russian dominance of the Balkans.
“Crises in the Balkans and the Road to Destruction (1874-1912)”10.
10 Crises in the Balkans and the Road to Destruction (1874-1912), retrieved 20.08.2016, http://
www.sparknotes.com/history/european/1871-1914/section9.r.html
268
The young states of the Balkans united in the I Balkan war against Turkey
could not, however, come to an understanding among themselves, hence the
numerous conflicts and incidents, and the result of it the second Balkan war, where
existing allies take up arms against each other. Balkan Wars caused destabilization
of the region and changed the balance of power. Moreover, they led to the
internationalization of local conflicts because of the involvement of the then great
powers, especially Russia and Austria-Hungary, the ultimate result of which was to
be the outbreak of the First World War, unleashed admittedly not by the Balkan
states, however, they contributed towards it significantly. During World War I, the
Balkan countries opted for different sides. Bulgaria and Turkey opted for the Triple
Alliance, and Serbia, Greece, Montenegro and Romania joined the Triple Entente.
The end of World War I completely changes the balance of power not only
from European but also global perspective. Ottoman Turkey and Austro-Hungarian
Empire disintegrated, and Russian Empire plunged into the chaos of revolution and
civil war. The Balkans saw creation of new states of Albania and the Kingdom of
Serbs, Croats and Slovenes /SHS/ arising from Serbia, Montenegro and southern
Slavic territories belonging previously to the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The newly
created post-war order did not satisfy anyone's ambitions in the Balkans.
Hungarians had lost huge native Hungarian lands in behalf of Romania and
Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria had sought to annex Macedonia, the Turks lost the entire
previous ownership in the Balkans, the Croats aspired to create their own state.
The Second World War did not change anything in the Balkan antagonisms, on
the contrary, they even intensified.
Italian and German occupiers seemed to push Balkan nations to fratricidal
wars, which resulted in strongly growing ethnic conflict in the occupied Kingdom
of Yugoslavia. An additional antagonistic element was the emergence of a large
number of communist guerrillas, initially supported by Moscow, and later by the
Western states.
The end of the Second World War radically changed world geopolitics. These
changes also applied to the Balkans, the so-called people’s democracy countries
formed, strictly subordinated to Moscow and Stalin, ruled with a firm hand by the
local Communist regimes. In the Balkans, people's democracy comes with the
Soviet tanks to Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Albania and the People’s Federal
Republic of Yugoslavia, transformed later in the Socialist Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia. In the sphere of Western influence remains only Turkey and Greece
(however, also there was fought a civil war caused by the communist guerrilla).
Ideological communist government did not solve any existing ethnic antagonisms,
although the activity of secret services policy did not allow their escalation.
With the collapse of the communist system Balkan antagonisms entered a new
phase, the problem especially concerned the territory of the former Yugoslavia.
C. M. Fleming poses a question if Yugoslavia could have survived and if the very
warfare itself stemmed from the understanding of the internal and external
situation, or if they may have been the result of misinformed and ill-informed the
269
policy makers. “In the Yugoslav wars of dissolution we can trace this uncertainty
throughout the entire conflict. In one such instance, Balkan specialist Lenard
Cohen describes how in 1990 Milosevic based his early strategies on an incomplete
intelligence report prepared by the JNA. The report suggested that although
Yugoslavia had lost its strategic importance to the Western powers, the US and its
allies would not intercede if the army stepped in to prevent political fragmentation,
and ultimately, republican secession. When the then US Secretary of State James
Baker visited the region and restated the US policy of maintaining the political
status quo, the ruling Serbian coterie accepted this as tacit acceptance that they
could halt the independence movements by invoking fear, and ultimately by
military aggression - this idea was given further credibility by the early British
position, which also favoured the continued unity of the Yugoslav state. As the
Under Secretary for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs told the Commons in June
1991, ‘we and our partners have a clear preference for the continuation of a single
Yugoslav political entity’. The Serbs and the JNA inferred that they had been given
the green light to reconfigure the Yugoslav state by force. They misread and
subsequently miscalculated the signals emanating from the international
community. Their decision to go to war in Slovenia was based on unreliable
intelligence, which was itself the result of changing motivations among the external
powers”11.
The armed conflict, which erupted in the former Yugoslavia was
incomprehensible for the then Europe. Even the bloody overthrow of Ceausescu in
Romania was quite different in nature and related to the fight against the
dictatorship and the communist system but not to ethnic wars. The civil war in
Yugoslavia seemed to apply to a different epoch, even though was fought in the
late twentieth century Europe. Europe, and with it the entire Western world began
to ascertain anew that the Balkans are not only geographical area, but rather
a battleground between East and West, Past and Present, between barbarity and
civilization12.
Despite the end of armed conflicts in the Balkans, the situation in this area is
still precarious. Even the attempts of European integration and the integration of
further countries to the European Union and NATO, have not yet stabilized the
area. Moreover, the stance of Russia, which starts to see the Balkans as a potential
area of its influence, has become significant.
M. Babic identified three pillars of the political influence of Russia in the
Western Balkans, the first pillar being the privileged position of Russia as
a permanent member of the UN Security Council, which gives the possibility of
a veto right on all the processes carried out by the United Nations in the Western
11
Colin M. Fleming, Clausewitz’s Timeless Trinity. A Framework For Modern War, (London and
New York: 2013), 121.
12
cf., Božidar Jezernik, Wild Europe: the Balkans in the gaze of Western travellers, London 2004.
270
Balkans contrary to its raison d’être. The second pillar is the growing economic
importance of Russia in the region, as it is the main supplier of energy in the region
and appears increasingly as an investor and partner. The third pillar is the
historical, cultural and political relations between Russia and the peoples and
countries of South-Eastern Europe with Orthodox tradition13.
And currently run by the Russian President lawless, unpredictable, neoimperialist foreign policy seems to favor the revival of dormant conflicts and
trigger new, targeting regional and European security.
Balkan way to Europe
The stormy history of the Balkan peoples reflect in large measure their attitude
to European integration. At loggerheads with each other, unwilling to compromise,
often economically weak Balkan states do not always share and understand the idea
of a united Europe and collective security, both with respect to those countries that
are already in the European Union and those who only aspire to it. Sometimes
arises the impression that many Balkan nations see their future not in the European
Union, but they are more inclined to Putin's Eurasian Union, thus putting into
question their Europeanness.
Considering the wider Balkans, in the European Union are already Greece
(1981), Slovenia (2004), Hungary (2004), Bulgaria (2007), Romania (2007) and
Croatia (2013). All other countries in the region aspire to join the European Union:
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia (officially called,
because of the Greek protests, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia),
Serbia, Kosovo and Turkey. The relations of these countries with the European
Union are at a very different stage. Bulgaria and Romania have been waiting for
accession into the Schengen area. Croatia is the youngest member of the EU (since
2013) and in 2015 it is expected to enter the Schengen area. Montenegro,
independent since 2006, began in 2012 negotiations on accession to the EU. Serbia
started the negotiations in January 2014. Macedonia has been a candidate country
since 2005, but negotiations have not started yet. Albania and Bosnia and
Herzegovina have been prospective candidates since 2003. An eventual candidate
is also independent since 2008 Kosovo, however, this situation is complicated by
the fact that some EU countries have not recognized its independence (e.g. Spain,
Greece, Slovakia, Romania).
The biggest Balkan state, Turkey, follows a winding road to Europe. Already in
1963 the then European Economic Community granted Turkey the status of
associate member, and it seemed that Turkey would soon be a permanent member.
However, political and economic turmoil meant that it was only in 1987 when
13
cf. Marko Babi , Rosja na Bałkanach Zachodnich. Interesy narodowe i wpływy polityczne,
retrieved 20.08.2016, https://www.academia.edu/8351715/Rosja_na_Ba%C5%82kanach_Zachodni
ch._Interesy_narodowe_i_wp%C5%82ywy_polityczne.
271
Turkey made a formal application for accession to the European Union, that only in
2005 launched formal negotiations for the association, to continue with varying
intensity until today.
Albania
Albania is a pro-European country, the government and the Albanian people
seem to understand that the only way of the country's development is the
integration with Western countries. Former isolationism from the time of Enver
Hoxha, when they were all enemies of Albania, was replaced by Euro-enthusiasm
and pro-Western sympathies. Albania was considered a prospective candidate for
the EU in 2003, although the application for EU membership was not submitted
until April 2009. In October 2013, the European Commission issued
a recommendation to grant Albania candidate status, which was confirmed in
a report in June 2014. The fact that Albania was acknowledged as the official
candidate is important from the point of view of the integration process, but of
paramount importance will be the next stage – the opening of accession
negotiations.
In 2009, Albania became a full member of NATO, starting already in 1992
cooperation with the North Atlantic Treaty. In 1994, Albania became a NATO
Partnership for Peace program, which started the process of accession of Albania to
the alliance. Albania was one of the first Eastern European countries to have joined
the Partnership for Peace. For all Albanian politicians admission to NATO had
always been a priority. Albania is now an important factor in maintaining military
stability in the troubled and divided Balkan region. Albania’s entry into NATO was
supported by 95% of the population.
Albanians believe that their worst enemies are Serbs, Montenegrins and
Greeks, and the allies are Bosniaks and Turks.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Officially, Bosnia and Herzegovina is heading towards Europe, but the mood
of the pro-European pertain to only one part, namely the Federation of Bosnia and
Herzegovina. For the other important administrative body, inhabited by Serbs in
Republika Srpska, integration of the EU seems to be of little interest, at least such
are the opinions expressed by politicians who exceptionally friendly treat Russia,
seeing it as its leading partner both politically and economically. The conversation
of the President of the Republic of Srpska Milorad Dodik and the Russian
President during his visit to Moscow in September 2014 underscores this
inclination: “Naturally, there is no question that we support Russia. We may be
a small and modest community, but our voice is loud. While your support has
always been important for us.
We have been to Gazprom during our visit to sign a very important agreement:
for the first time we will be receiving gas directly, bypassing intermediaries. (...).
272
There is a certain standstill on the part of the authorities in Sarajevo, but I am sure
we will resolve this. We have reached agreement with your Government to sign
a direct agreement between the Republika Srpska and the Russian Federation to be
approved by the central Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina. We will be
launching this procedure now. I have been informed of the concession that we have
recently awarded to Zarubezhneft and Gazprom Neft for the development of an oil
field on our territory. (...) Sberbank is also very active in our country. Our people
like to work with Russian companies, and we will continue supporting projects by
various regions of your country. True, we are facing elections. There are people
who want to see change, and they are openly interfering in the pre-election process,
but we have already seen this before. (...) And believe me, the very feeling that
Russia understands and supports the Republika Srpska is of great importance for
the people. I am very grateful to you for Russia’s assistance, its political support in
particular through its work within the Council to implement the peace agreement
for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and, of course, through the UN Security Council”14.
Accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to Europe in the shape in which it exists
today is unlikely. This country exists within the framework of imposed Dayton
Agreement. None of the issues that led to the civil war has been settled, only
frozen, and at any time may it come to their activation.
Muslims living in Bosnia recognize the Turks and Albanians as their friends,
their enemies are mostly Serbs. For the Serbs, the foes are mainly Croats, Muslims
and Albanians, and their positive relationship is forged with the Macedonians,
Greeks and Romanians.
Montenegro
Montenegrins officially declare that accession to the European Union, and on
the 19 may 20016 the accession treaty to NATO was signed, however, they have
extremely good relations with Russia, which results in essential for the country
Russian investments. The Russians are also the largest number of tourists visiting
Montenegro. Why are Russians so eager to come to Montenegro?
“Montenegro has had close ties to Russia dating back to the reign of Tsar Peter
the Great, when Russia agreed to take the small Orthodox principality under its
protective wing. According to the Russian embassy in Podgorica, between 5,000
and 7,000 Russians are permanent residents in Montenegro. For years, Montenegro
has been labeled the ‘Russian VIP resort’ - the preferred destination of Russian
oligarchs. According to some surveys, more than 40 per cent of real estate in
Montenegro belongs to Russian politicians and billionaires. But relations between
the two countries cooled down in March 2014, when Montenegro joined EU
sanctions against Russia over the annexation of Crimea. In July this year,
Montenegro's Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic also angered Moscow by saying
14 Meeting with President of the Republika Srpska entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik,
retrieved 20.08.2016, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46637
273
that Russia is actively working with ‘strongholds’ of anti-EU and anti-NATO
sentiment in the Western Balkans to compete for influence”15.
Currently, the access of Montenegro to the European Union there is a rather
distant perspective. Europe criticizes Montenegro’s commonly prevailing
corruption and not very transparent both internal and foreign policy.
Montenegrins have traditionally friendly relations primarily with the Serbs and
the Macedonians, Greeks and Romanians. They believe Muslims and Albanians
constitute their opponents.
Kosovo
Kosovo declared independence in 2008, in circumstances quite controversial
from the point of view of international law. Despite the fact that the International
Court of Justice in the Hague confirmed the independence of Kosovo in July 2010,
though not unanimously, many countries have not recognized the decision and treat
Kosovo as part of Serbia. Kosovo’s independence has created a precedent in
international relations, by among others, giving Russia the possibility of
recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Despite obtaining independence by Kosovo, the creation of state structures, its
stabilization and the international relations are far from normalizing. As Bahri Cani
observes: “Eight years ago, Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia. But
Europe’s youngest country now faces great difficulties. The opposition wants to
hold a mass demonstration to bring down the government. (...) There is a great fear
of social unrest and demonstrations because Kosovo has huge economic problems.
The youngest country in Europe has an unemployment rate of nearly 40 percent.
The ethnic tensions between Kosovo Albanians and Serbs still run high. The
implementation of agreements with Serbia has been sluggish. Furthermore, Kosovo
has only been officially recognized by 112 countries. Five members of the
European Union as well as Serbia, Russia, China and India are among those which
have not recognized the country. Recently, the country was denied UNESCO
membership. Kosovars are the only people in Europe who cannot travel to the EU
without a visa. They no longer believe that their country’s situation can change
quickly. Almost every tenth person has left the country in the past two years to
seek better prospects in Germany and other European countries”16.
Kosovo is still a quasi-state, so that the aspirations of the European Union,
although supported by the will of the public, do not seem are all this stage. The
15
Dusica Tomovic, Russians Dominate Foreign Ownership of Montenegrin Companies, retrieved
20.08.2016, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/russians-own-every-third-company-in-montene
gro-report-08-17-2016
16 Bahri Cani, Spiral of violence fuels Kosovo crisis, retrieved 20.08.2016, http://www.dw
.com/en/spiral-of-violence-fuels-kosovo-crisis/a-19052311
274
biggest enemies of Albanians from Kosovo are, of course, Serbs, as for friends they
think of their brethren in Albania, as well as the Turks and Bosniaks.
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Macedonia’s stance is firmly pro-European. In 2005, she was included in the
candidate countries to the European Union. The accession to the EU is both a target
politicians and society. Achieving this goal, however, may drag because of the
same name of the country, which is not accepted by Greece. According to Greek
politicians, the name Macedonia refers to the cultural heritage of Greece and
cannot be appropriated by any other nation, particularly Slavic. Another important
aim of Macedonians membership in NATO.
Despite the common Orthodox roots, Macedonians perceive first of all the
Greeks as their enemies, followed by Bulgarians and Albanians, treating other
Balkan nations rather affably.
Moldova
Moldova's problems stem from its history and demography. Pro-European are
definitely Moldovans speaking Romanian and associated with the Romanesque
culture, those who are Slavs and Gagauzami are firmly in favor of Russia.
Politically, Moldova has been cooperating with the European Union since 1994,
when the partnership and cooperation accord was signed. 20 years later, Moldova
signed and ratified an association agreement with the European Union, however, it
does not mean rapid adoption of Moldova into the EU structures. First, Moldova
needs to regain territorial unity and conclude, as far as possible, the frozen conflict
of Transnistria.
Secondly, pro-European option must win the next parliamentary elections and
settle the serious allegations of corruption and nepotism. The plans of Russia
regarding Moldova are unknown and each scenario can be taken into account.
“Russia has attempted energy coercion, political maneuvering and military
threats to stop Moldova from looking westwards for security and growth for years.
In 2003, Putin tried to impose forced federalization on Moldova through the so
called Kozak Plan, which he now espouses for Ukraine. Had it gone into effect,
this plan would have for all intents and purposes destroyed both Moldova’s
territorial integrity and its de facto sovereignty. Thankfully, it was blocked by the
European Union (EU). From the perspective of Chisinau, the lessons are clear.
Moldova has served, and could serve again, as a laboratory for Russia strategic
experiments for dismembering sovereign European states and preventing their
freedom to choose a European political orientation. Yet, Russian threats are not
only military in nature. Russia has used sanctions, blockades, oil and gas shortages
and price hikes to attempt to force Moldova17.
17 Russian Threats to Moldova and the Balkans, retrieved 20.08.2016, http://cepa.org/
index/?id=5ad8e560fe607845a403a1f0d65ed321
275
In the case of Moldova, the definition a friendly nation depends on national
identity of its citizens. For Romanian-speaking Moldovans these are for the most
part Romanians, whereas for Slavs it will be Russians or Ukrainians.
Serbia
Serbia, as every Balkan country has applied for membership in the European
Union, however, it is also perceived as the most faithful and staunchest ally of
Russia in this part of Europe. Russia has consistently supported Serbia’s stance on
Kosovo stating that the EU was violated international law and Serbian sovereignty
over Kosovo, placing ethnic Serbian enclaves at risk of violence. That issue
consolidated the long-standing Russia-Serbia partnership. No wonder that Serbia
supported Russia in the annexation of Crimea, even though initially Serbia’s
position appeared unclear. “But Serbia’s refusal to impose sanctions on Russia and
right-wing political leaders’ open support for Crimea’s re-incorporation with
Russia diluted the credibility of Vucic’s commitment. (…) Many European
policymakers believe that Serbia regards Crimea’s union with Ukraine after 1991
to be an illegal action analogous to Kosovo’s unilateral secession. As Russia is
a vital international partner supporting Serbia’s position on state sovereignty,
Serbia pledged its unerring loyalty to Moscow to reaffirm its historic alliance, even
though this pact could greatly complicate its EU accession”18.
Serbs in the Balkans distinguish primarily Montenegrins, Macedonians and
Greeks as friendly nations. As for the foes, Croats, Bosniaks and Albanians are
named.
Turkey
The largest, most populous and militarily the strongest country in the region.
Turkey is known as a regional power, it has been a NATO member for fifty years
and has been applying for membership in the current European Union. The Turks’
attitude has always been pro-European, although in recent years there have been
debates over the reasonableness of further accessions to the Union, in light of the
fact that some Member States show a clear aversion to the Association of Muslim
Turkey.
Turkey has always played a significant role in guaranteeing security in the area,
both the Balkan and in the Middle East. However, Turkey's reaction to the
Ukrainian crisis was carefully measured. Russian-Turkish relations deteriorated
only after the incident with the Russian military aircraft which allegedly violated
the airspace of Turkey and was downed by the Turkish air force. “Ties between
Moscow and Ankara were severely strained (…). Following the downing, the
Kremlin firmly insisted upon an apology from Erdogan over the incident,
18
Samuel Ramani, Why Serbia is Strengthening its Alliance with Russia, retrieved 20.08.2016,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-ramani/why-russia-is-tightening-_b_9 218306.html
276
something he refused to do. Putin described the incident as a stab in the back by
terrorists’ affiliates, and it was followed by a strong response from Russia. Moscow
imposed a number of sanctions on Turkey, including an embargo on food imports,
a ban on the sale of package tours, and the introduction of a visa regime – measures
that apparently sent Turkey’s booming tourism industry into a nosedive”19. Today,
these relations are improving, the symbol of which may be the last visit of the
Turkish president in Russia and the joint declaration on further economic
cooperation between Turkey and Russia.
Turks have traditionally good relations with Muslim nations, hence their
friendly attitude to Bosniaks and Albanians. Turks believe the Greeks and
Bulgarians compose their biggest adversaries in the Balkans.
Final remarks
The idea of a common, free, democratic and united Europe seems to be
a standard adopted by all European nations after the Cold War. Expanding the
European Union is the realization of this idea. It is being applied in the Balkans,
where all the countries either are already in the European Union or aspire to it. But
the events of recent months can significantly affect the further accession activity.
Aggressive and unpredictable Kremlin’s policy has caused that Europe no longer
speak with one voice, both the united, and the aspiring group. Among the Balkan
countries, some members of the EU, namely Hungary, Greece and Bulgaria have at
least ambiguous attitude towards Russia. These last two countries actually are
called Trojan horse in Europe because of its special relationship with Russia. Also
Serbs living in Serbia and the people of the Republic of Srpska in Bosnia and
Herzegovina do not hide their pro-Russian sympathies, tightening political and
economic cooperation with Putin’s Russia. Montenegrin policy towards Russia is
also not transparent. This ambiguity in relations with Russia could lead to
overvaluation of accession policy in the Balkans, and this in turn may result in an
outbreak of the frozen Balkan conflicts.
Still, it can be argued that at this stage, despite the internal problems of the EU
integration, the Balkans is an significant project, although no longer a priority.
Despite the prevailing consensus among all EU Member States to the positive
impact of the EU enlargement policy to stabilize the socio-political situation and
economic development in the Balkans, it is expected that the accession of these
countries will be a challenge for both current and new members of the Community.
Thus, there exists a discrepancy within the European elites and societies with
regard to support of the membership of countries in the region in the Union.20 The
19 Putin: Russia ‘sincerely seeking’ to restore relations with Turkey, retrieved 20.08.2016, https://
www.rt. com/news/356143-putin-russia-relations-turkey/
20
cf. Bałkany Zachodnie a integracja europejska. Perspektywy i implikacje, Warszawa 2008.
277
geopolitical situation in the region outlined in the article shows that the unresolved
internal and external problems of the Balkan countries are not conducive to their
integration with the European Union. However, taking into account a broader
perspective, namely the importance of the region for European security, it is
believed that the difficulties will be overcome and the Balkans will become an
integral part of a united Europe.
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Abstract
The notion Balkan Cauldron known for its nineteenth and twentieth-century history
seems to be still applicable today. Conflicting political interests of the Balkan countries, the
involvement of foreign powers, outstanding territorial claims and the complicated structure
of ethnicity and religion are typical Balkan reality. The presence of international
organizations such as the UN, NATO, and nowadays especially the European Union has
not led to a permanent peace in the area of the Balkan Peninsula. Despite the apparent
tranquility, the situation in the Balkans can develop dynamically. The unpredictable politics
of Russia is of paramount importance for the Balkans. Russian foreign policy is now
focused on creating a climate of Cold War and building a sphere of influence in the global
dimension. One of the elements of this policy is Russia’s proceedings in the Balkans,
especially in countries which are not yet members of the European Union.
The geopolitical situation in the region shows that the unresolved internal and external
problems of the Balkan countries are not conducive to their integration with the European
Union. However, taking into account a broader perspective, namely the importance of the
region for European security, it is believed that the difficulties will be overcome and the
Balkans will become an integral part of a united Europe.
Niebezpieczne zwi zki. Bałka ska droga do Europy
Znany z dziewi tnastowiecznej historii termin kocioł bałka ski wydaje si by ci gle
aktualnym. Sprzeczne interesy polityczne pa stw bałka skich, zaanga owanie obcych
mocarstw, nieuregulowane roszczenia terytorialne i skomplikowana struktura religijnonarodowo ciowa s
i dzisiaj bałka sk
rzeczywisto ci . Obecno
organizacji
mi dzynarodowych takich jak ONZ, NATO, a dzi przede wszystkim Unii Europejskiej nie
doprowadziły do trwałego pokoju na obszarze Półwyspu Bałka skiego. Mimo pozornego
spokoju sytuacja na Bałkanach mo e rozwija si bardzo dynamicznie. Kwesti istotn dla
Bałkanów staja si równie nieprzewidywalna polityka Rosji. Rosyjska polityka
zagraniczna nastawiona jest obecnie na tworzenie klimatu zimnowojennego i budowanie
strefy wpływów w wymiarze globalnym. Jednym z elementów tej polityki s rosyjskie
279
działania na Bałkanach, szczególnie w krajach nie b d cych jeszcze członkami Unii
Europejskiej.
Sytuacja geopolityczna regionu, pokazuje, e wci
nie rozwi zane problemy
wewn trzne i zewn trzne pa stw bałka skich nie sprzyjaj obecnej ich integracji z Uni
Europejsk . Jednak wzi wszy pod uwag szersz perspektyw , znaczenie regionu dla
bezpiecze stwa europejskiego, nale y s dzi , e trudno ci b d pokonywane, a Bałkany
stan si integraln cz ci zjednoczonej Europy.
Keywords
The Balkans, European Union, Russia, great powers, sphere of influence, security, conflict,
access
Słowa kluczowe
Bałkany, Unia Europejska, Rosja, mocarstwa, strefa wpływów, bezpiecze stwo, konflikt,
akces
Agata Jagiello, MA, BSc, faculty at the Military University of Technology; graduate of
Warsaw University and Lancaster University, completed post-graduate studies in National
Security at the Faculty of Journalism and Political Science at Warsaw University.
Jaroslaw Tondera, MA, officer of the Polish Armed Forces on inactive duty; graduate of
the Jagiellonian University and National Defense University; scholar of universities in
Ljubljana, Klaipeda and Tartu.
280