ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort Greater North Sea and Celtic Seas ecoregions 6.3.49 Published 30 June 2016 Version 2: 11 November 2016 Sole (Solea solea) in Subarea 4 (North Sea) ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the second stage of the EU management plan (Council Regulation No. 676/2007) is applied, catches in 2017 should be no more than 15 251 tonnes. Stock development over time The spawning-stock biomass (SSB) has increased since 2007 and has been estimated at above MSY Btrigger since 2012. Fishing mortality (F) has declined since 1997 and is estimated to be at FMSY in 2015. Recruitment (R) has fluctuated without trend since the early 1990s. Figure 6.3.49.1 Sole in Subarea 4. Summary of stock assessment. Stock and exploitation status Table 6.3.49.1 Sole in Subarea 4. State of the stock and fishery relative to reference points. Fishing pressure 2013 2014 2015 2014 MSY Maximum FMSY Appropriate sustainable yield Btrigger Harvested Precautionary Fpa, Bpa, Blim approach Flim sustainably Management FMGT Below SSBMGT plan ICES Advice 2016, Book 6 Stock size 2015 2016 Above trigger Full reproductive capacity Above 1 Published 30 June 2016 ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort Catch forecast and outlook Table 6.3.49.2 Sole in Subarea 4 (North Sea). The basis for the forecast. Variable Value F ages 2–6 (2016) SSB (2017) Rage1 (2016) Rage1 (2017) Total catch (2016) Commercial landings (2016) Unwanted catch (2016) Table 6.3.49.3 Rationale Manageme nt plan (MP) MSY approach Zero catch Source 0.16 77202 t 59248 111851 13268 t 12021 t 1247 t Notes ICES (2016a) ICES (2016a) ICES (2016a) ICES (2016a) ICES (2016a) ICES (2016a) ICES (2016a) Catch constraint (13268 tonnes) Short-term forecast (STF), tonnes RCT3, thousands Geometric mean (GM, 1957–2012), thousands Tonnes Tonnes Average discard rate by age 2013–2015 in tonnes Sole in Subarea 4 (North Sea). The forecast and catch options. All weights are in thousand tonnes. Total catch (2017) Wanted catch (2017)* Unwanted catch (2017)* Basis Ftotal ages 2–6 (2017) Fwanted ages 2–6 (2017) Funwanted ages 1–3 (2017) SSB (2018) % SSB change ** % TAC change total catch *** 15251 14187 1065 15% TAC constraint in (MP) 0.17 0.14 0.04 76196 −1 15 18064 16800 1264 FMSY 0.2 0.17 0.05 73429 −5 36 0 0 0 F=0 0 0 0 91259 18 −100 TAC −15% 0.12 0.1 0.03 80116 4 −15 11273 10488 785 (F2016 × 0.75) Stable TAC 13262 12337 925 0.14 0.12 0.04 78155 1 0 (F2016 × 0.89) TAC + 15% 15251 14187 1065 0.17 0.14 0.04 76196 −1 15 (F2016 × 1.03) Other 14757 13727 1030 F2016 0.16 0.14 0.04 76682 −1 11 options 35177 32680 2496 Fpa 0.44 0.37 0.11 56683 −27 165 55589 51550 4040 SSB > Bpa 0.84 0.71 0.22 37000 −52 319 45422 42164 3258 Flim 0.62 0.53 0.16 46753 −39 242 66927 61971 4955 SSB > Blim 1.166 0.99 0.3 26300 −66 405 55589 51550 4040 SSB > MSY Btrigger 0.84 0.71 0.22 37000 −52 319 Mixed fisheries options –differences with calculations above can occur because of the different methodology used (ICES, 2016b.) † Maximum 21551 A 0.26 66045 -14 Minimum 10620 B 0.12 76786 -1 Cod 14786 C 0.17 72686 -6 SQ effort 18020 D 0.21 69508 -10 Value 16321 E 0.19 71177 -8 * “Wanted” and “unwanted” catch are used to described fish that would be landed and discarded in the absence of the EU landing obligation, based on the average discard rates (at age) estimates for 2013–2015. ** SSB 2018 relative to SSB 2017. *** Total catch 2017 relative to TAC 2016. Mixed-fisheries assumptions (note: ”fleet’s stock share” is used to describe the share of the fishing opportunities for each particular fleet, which has been calculated based on the single-stock advice for 2017 and the historical proportion of the stock landings taken by the fleet): A. Maximum scenario: Each fleet stops fishing when its last stock share is exhausted. B. Minimum scenario: Each fleet stops fishing when its first stock share is exhausted. C. Cod scenario: Each fleet stops fishing when its cod stock share is exhausted. D. SQ (status quo) effort scenario: The effort of each fleet in 2016 and 2017 is as in 2015. E. Value scenario: The effort of each fleet is equal to the weighted average of the efforts required to catch the fleet’s quota share of each of the stocks, where the weights are the relative catch values of each stock in the fleet’s portfolio. † 2 Version 2: Mixed-fisheries considerations as part of this advice added ICES Advice 2016, Book 6 ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort ICES Advice 2016, Book 6 Published 30 June 2016 3 Published 30 June 2016 ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort Basis of the advice Table 6.3.49.4 Sole in Subarea 4 (North Sea). The basis of the assessment and advice. Advice basis EU management plan (Council Regulation No. 676/2007; EU, 2007) Management plan An evaluation of the management plan (ICES, 2010) concluded that the management plan is precautionary. The stocks are in stage two of the EU multiannual plan (EU, 2007). Application of stage two of the plan is based on transitional arrangements until an evaluation of the plan has been conducted. ICES assumes that harvesting the stock with the newest estimate of FMSY is in accordance with stage two of the current plan. Quality of the assessment The North Sea sole assessment was recently benchmarked (ICES, 2015a). The new assessment is very similar in terms of SSB and recruitment, but has a smoothed pattern of F over time. Age compositions of the landings and discards are well sampled and the quality of the surveys is adequate. However, current survey indices do not cover the southwestern part of the stock distribution. Figure 6.3.49.2 Sole in Subarea 4 (North Sea). Historical assessment results (final-year recruitment estimates included). Issues relevant for the advice Technical measures applicable to the mixed flatfish beam-trawl fishery in the southern North Sea affect both sole and plaice. The minimum mesh size of 80 mm generates high discards of plaice which have a larger minimum landing size than sole. The use of larger mesh sizes would reduce the catch of undersized plaice and sole, but would also result in loss of marketable sole in the short term (Cardinale and Hjelm, 2012). Since 2011, the use of pulse trawls in the Dutch fishery has increased sharply to 74 vessels (of which 65 > 221 kW) and only few vessels operating with traditional beam trawls are now left. The increased use of pulse trawls and other adaptations like fuel-saving wings may affect catchability and selectivity of North Sea sole. There is a long-term management plan for North Sea plaice and sole, which was evaluated by ICES to be in accordance with the precautionary approach. However, in 2016 ICES does not use this plan as the basis for the advice for plaice. The European Commission has informed ICES that agreement has not been reached between the EU and Norway on a method to split the joint advice between the North Sea and Skagerrak. ICES continues to use the management plan as the basis of advice for sole. 4 ICES Advice 2016, Book 6 ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort Published 30 June 2016 Results from a North Sea mixed-fisheries analysis are presented in ICES (2016b). For 2017, assuming a strictly implemented discard ban (corresponding to the “Minimum” scenario), haddock would be the most limiting stock (assuming that the full advised catch is taken), constraining 36 out of 41 fleet segments (corresponding to 91% of the 2015 kW days of effort). Cod and eastern Channel sole would be limiting for fleets, corresponding to 5% and 4% of the 2015 effort, respectively. Conversely, in the “Maximum” scenario with Nephrops managed by separate TACs for the individual functional units (FUs), Nephrops would be considered the least limiting stocks in many FUs. Nephrops in FU 33, FU 5, FU 32, FU 7, and FU Others would be the least limiting stocks for fleets in these FUs, representing 32%, 16%, 10%, 4%, and 17% of the 2015 effort, respectively. Eastern Channel plaice and saithe would be least limiting for other fleet segments, representing 12% and 9% of the 2015 effort, respectively. Results for the North Sea sole stock are also included as additional rows in the catch options table of this advice sheet. Reference points Table 6.3.49.5 Sole in Subarea 4 (North Sea). Reference points, values, and their technical basis. Reference Framework Value Technical basis point MSY Btrigger 37000 t Default to value of Bpa. MSY Median of stochastic MSY analysis, assuming a approach FMSY 0.2 hockey-stick stock–recruit relationship. Blim 26300 t Breakpoint of segmented regression Bpa 37000 t Bpa = Blim × exp(1.645 σB), with σB = 0.20 Precautionary The F that in equilibrium will maintain the stock approach Flim 0.62 above Blim with a 50% probability Fpa 0.44 Fpa = Flim × exp(-1.645 σF), with σF = 0.20 Management plan SSBMGT FMGT 35000 t 0.2 Stage two Stage two: Article 4.3 – FMSY Source ICES (2015b) ICES (2014) ICES (2015b) ICES (2015b) ICES(2016a) ICES(2016a) EU management plan (Council Regulation No. 676/2007) EU management plan (Council Regulation No. 676/2007) Basis of the assessment Table 6.3.49.6 Sole in Subarea 4 (North Sea). The basis of the assessment and advice. ICES stock data category 1 (ICES, 2016c) Statistical catch-at-age model with flexible selectivity functions to reconstruct historical discard records Assessment type (Aarts and Poos, 2009, ICES, 2015a) Commercial catches (age frequencies from catch sampling), three survey indices (BTS-ISIS Q3, SNS Q3, DFS Input data Q3). Natural mortality is assumed constant. Maturity-at-age is assumed to be knife-edged (at age 3) and constant over time. Discards are included in the assessment. Discard records (1957–2002) are reconstructed. In 2015, 90% of Discards and bycatch the landings had associated discarding information, and 78% of the discards were sampled. Indicators None The stock has been benchmarked (ICES, 2015a). The main changes were the inclusion of discards and the Other information removal of the Dutch beam trawl fleet commercial index (ICES, 2015b). Working Group on the Assessment of Demersal Stocks in the North Sea and Skagerrak (WGNSSK) and Working groups Working Group on Mixed-Fisheries Advice (WGMIXFISH-ADVICE) Information from stakeholders The cumulative index of perceptions of the abundance of common sole (Figure 6.3.49.3) increased in about half of the areas (mainly in the south and east), but declined or remained the same in the others. The stock is primarily distributed in the southern areas (areas 5 and 6) and trends in these areas generally match the assessed stock biomass trends in recent years (Napier, 2014). No new information has been provided for 2015. ICES Advice 2016, Book 6 5 Published 30 June 2016 Figure 6.3.49.3 6 ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort Cumulative time-series of index of perceptions of abundance of common sole by roundfish sampling area from the Fishers' North Sea Stock Survey (Napier, 2014; see page 14 for an explanation of the index). ICES Advice 2016, Book 6 ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort Published 30 June 2016 History of the advice, catch, and management Table 6.3.49.7 Sole in Subarea 4 (North Sea). History of ICES advice, the agreed TAC, and the official as well as ICES estimates of landings. All weights are in thousand tonnes. Predicted landings Predicted catch Agreed ICES ICES Year ICES advice corresp. to advice corresp. to advice TAC landings discards 1987 Rebuild SSB to 40 000 t; TAC 11.0 14.0 17.4 1988 Increase SSB towards 50 000 t; TAC 11.0 14.0 21.6 1989 Increase SSB towards 50 000 t; TAC 14.0 14.0 21.8 1990 80% of F(88); TAC 25.0 25.0 35.1 1991 SSB >50 000 t ; TAC 27.0 27.0 33.5 1992 TAC 21.0 25.0 29.3 1993 no long-term gains in increased F 29.0* 32.0 31.5 1994 no long-term gains in increased F 31.0* 32.0 33.0 1995 no long-term gains in increased F 28.0* 28.0 30.5 1996 Mixed fishery, link plaice advice 23.0* 23.0 22.7 1997 < 80% of F(95) 14.6 18.0 14.9 1998 75% of F(96) 18.1 19.1 20.9 1999 F< Fpa (80% of F(97)) 20.3 22.0 23.5 2000 F< Fpa < 19.8 22.0 22.6 2001 F< Fpa < 17.7 19.0 19.9 2002 F< 0.37 < 14.3 16.0 16.9 1.7 2003 F< Fpa < 14.6 15.9 17.9 1.4 2004 F< Fpa < 17.9 17.0 18.8 2.4 2005 F< Fpa < 17.3 18.6 16.4 1.3 2006 Keep SSB above Bpa < 11.9 17.7 12.6 1.0 2007 SSB above Bpa < 10.8 15.0 14.6 0.9 2008 SSB above Bpa < 9.8 12.8 14.1 0.5 2009 Apply management plan < 14.0 14.0 14.0 1.3 2010 Apply management plan < 14.1 14.1 12.6 2.2 2011 See scenarios 14.1 11.5 1.7 2012 Apply first stage of the management plan < 15.7 16.2 11.6 2.5 2013 Apply first stage of the management plan < 14 14.0 13.1 2.1 2014 Apply first stage of the management plan < 11.9 11.9 13.1 1.6 November update: Apply second stage of the 2015 < 11.4 11.9 12.9 1.7 management plan 2016 Apply second stage of the management plan ≤ 12.8 13.3 2017 Apply second stage of the management plan ≤ 15.3 * Catch status quo F. ICES Advice 2016, Book 6 7 Published 30 June 2016 ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort History of catch and landings Table 6.3.49.8 Sole in Subarea 4 (North Sea). Catch distribution by fleet in 2015 as estimated by ICES. Catch (2015) Wanted catch 14.6 kt 8.8% gill-/ trammel 3.3% otter trawls nets 12.9 kt 87.8% beam trawls Table 6.3.49.9 Year 0.1% other gears 1.7 kt Sole in Subarea 4 (North Sea). History of the official and ICES landings. All weights are in tonnes. Belgium 1982 1900 1983 1740 1984 1771 1985 2390 1986 1833 1987 1644 1988 1199 1989 1596 1990 2389 1991 2977 1992 2058 1993 2783 1994 2935 1995 2624 1996 2555 1997 1519 1998 1844 1999 1919 2000 1806 2001 1874 2002 1437 2003 1605 2004 1477 2005 1374 2006 980 2007 955 2008 1379 2009 1353 2010 1268 2011 857 2012 593 2013 697 2014 920 2015 933 NA = not available. 8 Unwanted catch Denmark 524 730 818 692 443 342 616 1020 1427 1307 1359 1661 1804 1673 1018 689 520 828 1069 772 644 703 808 831 585 413 507 NA 406 346 418 497 314 271 France 686 332 400 875 296 318 487 312 352 465 548 490 499 640 535 99 510 NA 362 411 266 728 655 676 648 401 714 NA 621 539 633 680 675 532 Germany Netherlands 266 619 1034 303 155 210 452 864 2296 2107 1880 1379 1744 1564 670 510 782 1458 1280 958 759 749 949 756 475 458 513 555 537 327 416 561 642 765 17686 16101 14330 14897 9558 10635 9841 9620 18202 18758 18601 22015 22874 20927 15344 10241 15198 16283 15273 13345 12120 12469 12860 10917 8299 10365 9456 12038 8770 8133 9089 9987 9569 8899 UK 403 435 586 774 647 676 740 1033 1614 1723 1281 1149 1137 1040 848 479 549 645 600 597 451 521 535 667 910 1203 851 951 526 786 599 867 840 804 Other 2 1 3 2 4 28 50 263 271 277 298 298 312 229 204 339 501 539 394 292 363 544 357 5 15 1 1.38 2 3 0 0 0 Total reported landings 21467 19957 18940 19934 12934 13829 13363 14495 26543 27608 26004 29775 31291 28780 21199 13741 19742 21634 20929 18351 15969 17138 17828 15579 11933 13800 13435 NA 12129 10990 11752 13291 12547 12203 ICES total landings 21579 24927 26839 24248 18201 17368 21590 21805 35120 33513 29341 31491 33002 30467 22651 14901 20868 23475 22641 19944 16945 17920 18757 16355 12594 14635 14071 13952 12603 11485 11602 13137 13060 12867 TAC 21000 20000 20000 22000 20000 14000 14000 14000 25000 27000 25000 32000 32000 28000 23000 18000 19100 22000 22000 19000 16000 15850 17000 18600 17670 15000 12800 14000 14100 14100 16200 14000 11900 11900 ICES Advice 2016, Book 6 ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort Published 30 June 2016 Summary of the assessment Table 6.3.49.10 Sole in Subarea 4 (North Sea). Assessment summary. Weights are in tonnes. Year 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Recruitment Age 1 (thousands) 133173 120070 446825 41799 68261 11057 12754 611539 151219 55092 85651 120554 86543 203014 57000 110647 146093 122131 59092 138917 172911 63381 17880 181294 218640 204054 203846 95271 111974 163489 84106 686583 135009 247976 88638 442592 88109 64572 113851 76031 326152 150896 116975 140444 72200 217842 96079 ICES Advice 2016, Book 6 High 156990 142852 531193 50147 81701 13165 15349 745278 189075 72335 113260 159318 117011 272262 75243 145129 185305 154094 75151 176374 224889 81207 22600 234784 287093 270103 272813 121937 140984 203524 103456 852339 165516 302317 109200 547315 109581 81497 143585 96976 423276 192136 146418 173255 87683 266540 117241 Low 112878 100956 375916 34867 57021 9286 10598 502067 120825 41980 64768 91248 63958 151370 43197 84341 115179 96827 46478 109496 133071 49476 14144 140026 166448 154113 152278 74365 88930 131460 68398 552528 110104 203368 71902 357618 70798 51209 90339 59622 251254 118426 93506 113946 59427 178210 78748 Spawningstock biomass 62928 65375 68284 69492 103720 87064 70159 51556 41217 109817 106122 91237 69397 63714 56001 65080 47830 46208 46806 45552 37143 43159 52765 39168 25990 37887 49563 51530 47927 38037 34507 42206 38607 125120 91008 88799 59020 85156 64557 38480 32375 24075 48060 40595 34640 35489 27520 High 71209 73525 75999 77012 114838 96252 77627 58197 47732 125893 118156 100788 77025 71310 62722 73200 53508 51644 52080 50308 40406 47817 59454 42662 28171 43202 56093 58364 53897 41458 38027 46916 42273 145880 101096 97193 63707 95328 71797 41597 35546 26478 55757 45519 38191 39122 30093 Low 54647 57225 60569 61972 92602 77876 62691 44915 34702 93747 94084 81686 61769 56118 49280 56960 42152 40772 41532 40796 33880 38501 46076 35674 23809 32572 43033 44696 41957 34616 30987 37496 34941 104360 80920 80405 54333 74984 57317 35363 29204 21672 40363 35671 31089 31856 24947 Landings 13181 13235 15479 17466 27981 28290 22572 14772 10450 32060 32749 34733 23590 21091 21295 25195 20773 20616 19338 16824 15510 18781 23045 16474 13339 20355 25889 27521 25123 18051 15870 17661 21383 48929 38715 34069 29598 34753 30630 20241 16388 18008 24942 20461 18453 16617 16691 Discards 739 701 937 1260 2777 1481 778 280 895 4723 2668 1819 2116 2200 2700 2221 1631 2120 2178 1631 1658 2233 2133 1040 1740 3565 4071 3874 2846 1841 1950 1996 3764 6398 3537 2956 3671 4031 2296 1749 2045 3556 3937 2610 2247 1817 3007 Fishing mortality Ages 2–6 0.213 0.216 0.228 0.257 0.305 0.347 0.338 0.291 0.265 0.297 0.389 0.501 0.542 0.522 0.504 0.525 0.556 0.551 0.505 0.464 0.458 0.483 0.517 0.531 0.536 0.558 0.604 0.646 0.644 0.593 0.534 0.499 0.489 0.491 0.494 0.506 0.534 0.573 0.618 0.654 0.666 0.662 0.647 0.627 0.612 0.603 0.596 High Low 0.255 0.244 0.259 0.291 0.339 0.391 0.382 0.328 0.307 0.342 0.438 0.569 0.606 0.585 0.574 0.582 0.62 0.615 0.556 0.52 0.509 0.532 0.579 0.585 0.59 0.624 0.661 0.711 0.711 0.644 0.589 0.548 0.533 0.544 0.539 0.551 0.587 0.618 0.669 0.712 0.715 0.725 0.708 0.676 0.668 0.653 0.643 0.172 0.188 0.197 0.222 0.271 0.304 0.295 0.254 0.224 0.253 0.341 0.434 0.478 0.458 0.435 0.468 0.492 0.487 0.455 0.408 0.406 0.435 0.456 0.477 0.482 0.493 0.546 0.581 0.577 0.542 0.479 0.449 0.445 0.439 0.449 0.462 0.481 0.528 0.568 0.596 0.616 0.599 0.586 0.578 0.555 0.554 0.549 9 Published 30 June 2016 Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Recruitment Age 1 (thousands) 52786 51243 188203 69450 79121 103169 217368 228790 58439 132788 240457 194127 59248 ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort High 63207 61249 223267 82705 95199 124499 265891 288445 77375 185639 360022 361899 Low 44083 42843 158558 58277 65794 85472 177577 181632 44160 95077 160505 104076 Spawningstock biomass 39574 31191 25213 18415 36219 31630 31029 30767 38452 48012 45163 49142 64312 High Low 44315 34147 27280 19861 40422 34919 34272 34695 44462 56644 55058 60909 34833 28235 23146 16969 32016 28341 27786 26839 32442 39380 35268 37375 Landings 17420 12936 10577 9460 13352 12399 11971 11997 14339 15059 13302 12630 Discards 2800 1535 1078 1576 1836 1480 1596 2015 2147 1602 1398 1663 Fishing mortality Ages 2–6 0.575 0.53 0.485 0.458 0.451 0.447 0.425 0.384 0.335 0.286 0.24 0.201 High Low 0.63 0.573 0.529 0.504 0.492 0.499 0.485 0.45 0.408 0.351 0.298 0.266 0.519 0.487 0.44 0.413 0.411 0.394 0.366 0.319 0.263 0.221 0.182 0.137 Sources and references Aarts, G., and Poos, J. J. 2009. Comprehensive discard reconstruction and abundance estimation using flexible selectivity functions. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 763–771. Cardinale, M., and Hjelm, J. 2012. Short term loss and long term revenue in a size-selective fishery. Marine Policy, 36: 903– 906. EU. 2007. COUNCIL REGULATION (EC) No. 676/2007 of 11 June 2007 establishing a multiannual plan for fisheries exploiting stocks of plaice and sole in the North Sea. Official Journal of the European Union L 157/1. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legalcontent/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32007R0676&from=EN. ICES. 2010. Request from the Netherlands on the evaluation of the long-term management plan for sole and plaice in the North Sea (part 2). In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2010. ICES Advice 2010, Book 6, Section 6.3.3.4. ICES. 2014. Report of the Joint ICES–MYFISH Workshop to consider the basis for FMSY ranges for all stocks (WKMSYREF3), 17– 21 November 2014, Charlottenlund, Denmark. ICES CM 2014/ACOM:64. 147 pp. ICES. 2016a. Report of the Working Group on the Assessment of Demersal Stocks in the North Sea and Skagerrak (WGNSSK), 26 April–5 May 2016. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:14. ICES. 2016b. Report of the Working Group on Mixed-Fisheries Advice for the North Sea (WGMIXFISH), 23–27 May 2015. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:22 ‡ ICES. 2016c. General context of ICES advice. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2016. ICES Advice 2016, Book 1, Section 1.2. Napier, I. R. 2014. Fishers’ North Sea stock survey 2014. NAFC Marine Centre, Shetland, Scotland. http://nsss.eu. ‡ Version 2: Reference added 10 ICES Advice 2016, Book 6
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