Insight
They’re Baaack: Al Qaeda in Iraq
AUGUST 6, 2012
Violence in Iraq is nothing new, but recent coordinated attacks suggest the resurgence of Al
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Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). On July 23 , forty coordinated attacks in and around Baghdad killed at
least 115 Iraqis, marking the deadliest day in Iraq in two and a half years. These attacks are
examples of an accelerating rate of violent AQI activity since the U.S. withdrew from Iraq in
December.
Abu Bakr Baghdadi, the leader of the “Islamic State of Iraq,” an umbrella organization that
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includes AQI, released a lengthy statement in conjunction with the July 23
attacks. His
announcement of a new offensive called “Breaking the Walls” reveals AQI’s thinking,
including strategies that exploit inadequacies in the Obama administration’s policies in three
main ways. First, Baghdadi focuses on “recovering territory” that militants lost during the 2007-2008 U.S.
troop surge and Sunni awakening, when many of their civilian sympathizers decided to ally
instead with the new Iraqi government. The withdrawal of U.S. troops takes away much of
our ability to protect these gains.
President Obama’s decision to completely withdraw all American troops from Iraq last year
came as a bit of a surprise, since the administration had been negotiating with the Iraqis on an
agreement that would have allowed several thousand troops to stay for missions like training,
defending Iraq’s border, and intelligence sharing. When negotiations broke down, Obama
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and his aides tried put the best face on it. They said the withdrawal was an indication Iraq
had become “secure, stable, and self reliant,” and that it was consistent with Obama’s promise
to bring the war to a “responsible end.” Skeptics said the Administration was trying to put the
best face on its bungled negotiations, and worried that the move could undermine our hardfought successes.
Had President Obama not fully withdrawn from Iraq, the presence of several thousand U.S.
troops in Iraq would have given us influence with the Iraqi government and a means of
helping them tackle the threat from AQI. American border security, intelligence sharing, and
counter-terror capabilities would be useful today.
Second, AQI intends to agitate Sunnis and spark sectarian conflict. Baghdadi avers, “The
majority of the Sunnis in Iraq support al-Qaeda and are waiting for its return.” His speech is
laden with references to the Shi’a and Iran, and many of the targets of the July 23 attacks were
Shi’a. AQI’s ability to incite sectarian strife may be an easier task since the U.S. withdrawal. Sectarian power plays by Shi’a Prime Minister Maliki have intensified since the departure of
American troops, which plays into AQI’s hands. Maliki arrested Iraq’s Sunni Vice President
and expelled the Sunni Deputy Prime Minister in December, as the last U.S. troops were
leaving the country and just after a meeting with President Obama. At the same time, the
central government in Baghdad is quarrelling with Kurdish regions over oil revenues. Sadly, it is much more difficult for the U.S. to play our customary mediating role between
Iraq’s factions given the departure of U.S. troops and the present lack of a U.S. Ambassador.
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Third, Baghdadi spends almost half of his speech tying his movement to the civil war in Syria. “Our people there have fired the coup de grace … and taught the world lessons of courage and
jihad.” AQI wants to use the Syrian crisis to rile up Sunnis and broaden the appeal of its cause. Obama’s handing of Syria may prove advantageous for groups like AQI. His sluggishness in
responding to the crisis in Syria resulted in the conflict becoming more sectarian. It also
opened the door for outside groups like AQI to make inroads with the opposition.
The administration doesn’t see its role in Iraq’s instability, however. On July 23 – the very
same day as the Baghdad attacks – the Obama campaign released a web video touting the
withdrawal from Iraq and Obama’s pledge to “end the war responsibly.” When asked about the recent attacks, administration spokesmen insist the Iraqi government
has sufficient capabilities to handle internal security. So far that seems to be the case, and
Iraq’s Sunnis don’t seem to be casting their lots with the extremists. But if the situation
deteriorates in the face of more attacks and a power-hungry Maliki, the U.S. may wish we
were in a better position to counter AQI.
A fourth point from Baghdadi’s speech should serve as a wake-up call to the Obama
administration. Baghdadi speaks of exporting AQI’s terror, including to the U.S. homeland. “
You will soon witness how attacks will resound in the heart of your land, because our war
with you has now started,” he warns. In other words, what happens in Iraq may not stay in
Iraq, and we would be foolish to ignore events.
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Obama did more than withdraw American troops from Iraq; he withdrew American influence
and attention. Certainly this is not the “responsible” end to the war we were promised.
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