Evaluating universal infant free school
meals, Scotland: second monitoring
report of school-meal uptake.
October 2016
Author Rachel McAdams
This resource may also be made available
on request in the following formats:
translations
easy to read
audio
BSL
large print
braille
0131 314 5300
[email protected]
For further information on the Evaluation of Universal Free
School Meals contact: Rachel McAdams, Public Health Adviser
(Evaluation), NHS Health Scotland [email protected] or
visit healthscotland.com/freeschoolmeals
Published by NHS Health Scotland
1 South Gyle Crescent
Edinburgh EH12 9EB
© NHS Health Scotland 2016
All rights reserved. Material contained in this
publication may not be reproduced in whole
or part without prior permission of NHS
Health Scotland (or other copyright owners).
While every effort is made to ensure that
the information given here is accurate, no
legal responsibility is accepted for any errors,
omissions or misleading statements.
NHS Health Scotland is a WHO Collaborating
Centre for Health Promotion and Public
Health Development.
Contents
Contents .......................................................................................................... 1
Background ...................................................................................................... 2
Methods ........................................................................................................... 4
Findings ........................................................................................................... 6
National data ................................................................................................ 6
Local authority data ...................................................................................... 8
School data ................................................................................................ 12
Recommendations ......................................................................................... 14
Web appendix: Additional tables .................................................................... 15
1
Background
Universal free school meals (UFSM) for primary 1 to 3 (P1-3) pupils in
Scotland was introduced in January 2015. NHS Health Scotland is leading an
evaluation of UFSM. The evaluation is ongoing and has three strands:
consulting with parents; consulting with schools and local authorities; and
monitoring changes in school-meal uptake. More information can be found at
healthscotland.com/freeschoolmeals
The Healthy Living Survey collects data on school-meal uptake on a typical
day in February each year. The UFSM evaluation uses the Healthy Living
Survey data as an indicator to monitor changes in three key outcomes:
increased school-meal uptake; financial benefits to families; and nutritional
benefits to children. This report (the second monitoring report) updates the
monitoring of school-meal uptake we first reported in 2015. Below we
summarise the findings from the first report (published in 2015).1
Our first monitoring report found that shortly after introduction of the policy,
overall school-meal uptake (both free and paid) increased among primary
children. There was an increase from 53.2% of primary pupils in 2014, to
64.8% in 2015. This increase in school-meal uptake was found to be because
of increased uptake of (free) school meals among P1-3 pupils following the
introduction of UFSM. In 2015, 79.3% of P1-3 pupils took a school meal (now
free), compared with 53.1% of P4-7 pupils taking a school meal (both free and
paid).
Increases in free-school-meal uptake suggested that more families were
benefiting financially in 2015. Increases in school-meal uptake (free and paid)
also suggested that more children were benefiting nutritionally.
1
Note: the analysis from the first report is based on the unrevised school-meal uptake data
that were available at the time of the publication (October 2015). The first report can be found
at www.healthscotland.com/documents/26327.aspx
2
There was a lot of variation across local authorities and schools in terms of
uptake of both free school meals and school meals (both free and paid). The
change in uptake between 2014 and 2015 also varied. However, the most
deprived 25% of schools continued to report the highest uptake of free school
meals and overall school-meal uptake (both free and paid) in 2015. This
suggested that families and children from the most deprived schools benefited
the most financially and nutritionally from free school meals in 2015.
The first report on monitoring school-meal uptake, published in 2015, can be
found at the link below. Note: this analysis was based on the unrevised
Healthy Living Survey Data for 2015.
See: www.healthscotland.com/documents/26327.aspx
3
Methods
The Healthy Living Survey data are collated and prepared by the Scottish
Government.2 The national-, local authority- and school-level Excel data sets
were used for this evaluation. The revised 2015 data – which were published
alongside the 2016 data (in June 2016) – were used for the analysis
presented in this paper. Note: the 2015 data analysed here are slightly
different to those used for the first monitoring report published in 2015 – the
findings of which are summarised in the Background section above.
The national- and local authority-level data were analysed using Microsoft
Excel. These data are used to monitor longer-term trends in school-meal
uptake at both a local authority and national level.
From 2015, national- and local authority-level data were disaggregated to
present uptake data for P1-3 and P4-7. These data were used to monitor
changes in uptake among P1-3 and P4-7 pupils.
School-level data from the 2014, 2015 and 2016 Healthy Living Surveys were
also used. School-level data were not disaggregated to allow for monitoring of
P1-P3 and P4-P7 uptake.
Data for each year were combined and cleaned. Schools with incomplete or
withheld data were removed, leaving 1576 schools with complete data for
analysis.3 The clean data set was analysed using both Microsoft Excel and
IBM SPSS v19. A two-sample z-test for proportions was used to test for
significant changes in school-meal and free-school-meal uptake.
2
Details of the Healthy Living Survey methodology and access to the data sets are
available from the Scottish Government website:
www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/School-Education/Pub-SS-ALM
3
During data cleaning 449 schools were removed from the combined data sets.
Schools with incomplete data also included schools where deductive disclosure
policies meant that data were withheld.
4
School-level data were used to explore variation in school-level uptake and
were used to assess variation in uptake by school level of social deprivation.
The estimated number of pupils eligible for free school meals in 2014 (prior to
the introduction of UFSM) was used as an indicator of school-level social
deprivation.4 Schools were ranked according to the estimated proportion of
pupils eligible for free school meals in 2014, and then divided into four
quartiles from most to least deprived. Variation in school-meal uptake across
the four quartiles was then assessed.
The Healthy Living Survey is a reliable source of routine national-level data on
school-meal uptake, which provides school- and local authority-level data.
However, the survey provides only a snapshot of activity on a single day of
the year. The data, therefore, does not capture variation in school-meal
uptake across a year, month or week. The data does not capture individual
pupil-level data or what children eat. A school-level indicator of deprivation is
used in the analysis. However, not all children or families within each school
will share the same characteristics or levels of social deprivation. The findings
should therefore be read with these limitations in mind.
4
The percentage of pupils registered for free school meals has traditionally been
used as an indicator of school-level deprivation in Scotland. However, the
introduction of some local policies since 2010, and UFSM since 2015, have widened
the eligibility for free school meals in primary schools. This means this is no longer a
useful measure of school-level deprivation, but no alternative measure is available.
Between 2011 and 2014, the Scottish Government produced estimates of the
proportion of pupils in each school who would be eligible for free school meals under
the national policy criteria (pre-UFSM). Scottish Government recommended the use
of these estimates as an indicator for school-level deprivation. For the second
monitoring report analysis, the 2014 school-level estimates of the proportion of pupils
eligible for free school meals under the old criteria were used as the indicator for
school-level deprivation when assessing change in uptake between 2014 and 2015.
This assumes there has been little change in the socio-economic profile of families
attending the schools in the intervening 2 years.
5
Findings
National data
There was a small but significant increase in the proportion of primary pupils
taking a school meal (free and paid) in Scotland from 2015 to 2016, from
64.6% to 66% (p < 0.000) (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Trend in school meal (free and paid) uptake among
Scottish primary pupils, 2003-2016
Implementation of UFSM
School-meal uptake (% of all pupils)
100
90
80
70
60
50
49.6
48.9
46.6
47.3
46.3
49.6
48.9
50.4
51.9
53.2
53.2
40
78.9
81.7
64.6
66
53.1
53.7
53.2
30
20
10
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
All primary pupils
P1-P3
P4-P7
There was no significant change in free-school-meal uptake in Scotland
among primary pupils between 2015 and 2016, which remained at 44%
(Figure 2).
Uptake of free school meals among P1-3 pupils increased for the second year
post introduction of the universal policy. This was a significant increase from
78.9% to 81.7% (p < 0.000) (Figures 1 and 2).
6
There was a small but significant increase in uptake of school meals (free and
paid) among P4-7 pupils, from 53.1% to 53.7% (p = 0.000) between 2015 and
2016. However, free-school-meal uptake among P4-7 pupils decreased from
16.3% to 15.2% (p < 0.000) (Figure 3). Free school-meal uptake among P4-7
pupils should be monitored for further and consistent declines, which would
warrant further investigation.
Figure 3. School lunch choices among primary pupils, P1-3 and
P4-7, 2015 and 2016
100.0
90.0
21.1
18.3
80.0
46.9
% of pupils
70.0
46.3
60.0
50.0
40.0
78.9
81.7
38.5
Paid
school
meal
16.3
15.2
Home
packed
lunch
P4-7, 2015
P4-7, 2016
36.8
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
P1-3, 2015
P1-3, 2016
Free
school
meal
It would appear that the increase in overall school-meal uptake among P4-7
pupils was owing to more pupils paying for a school meal. Without pupil-level
7
data on school-meal uptake it isn’t clear whether or not these pupils had been
part of the first cohort of pupils moving from UFSM provision in P3 into
targeted provision in P4. This would be worth further investigation, as it could
indicate longer-term impacts of the universal policy on school-meal choices.
Local authority data
Changes in free-meal uptake were more varied at a local authority level in
2016. A total of 21 local authorities reported small but significant increases in
free-meal uptake among P1-3 pupils, ranging from 1.2% to 10.5%. Four
authorities reported small but significant decreases in free-meal uptake
among P1-3 pupils, ranging from 3.3% to 5.3% (Figures 4 and 5; Table 2 in
web appendix).
8
Figure 4. Change in free-school-meal uptake among P1-3 pupils,
2015-16
East Dunbartonshire
-5.3
Falkirk
-4.2
Scottish Borders
-3.5
East Ayrshire
-3.3
Orkney Islands
-2.9
West Dunbartonshire
-2
Stirling
-1.8
East Lothian
-0.2
North Ayrshire
0.2
Aberdeenshire
1
Glasgow City
1.2
Clackmannanshire
1.4
Local authority
Midlothian
1.8
Argyll & Bute
2.1
South Ayrshire
2.2
Angus
2.4
Fife
2.7
Dumfries & Galloway
2.8
Renfrewshire
3.2
South Lanarkshire
3.5
Shetland Islands
3.7
Aberdeen City
3.8
City of Edinburgh
4
West Lothian
4.4
North Lanarkshire
4.8
Moray
5.7
Inverclyde
6.1
Perth & Kinross
6.5
Eilean Siar
8
Highland
8.9
East Renfrewshire
10.4
Dundee City
10.5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
% point change
9
6
8
10
12
Figure 5. Free-school-meal uptake among P1-3, 2015 and 2016
100%
90%
80%
% of pupils
70%
% P1-3
freeschoolmeal
uptake
2015
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Orkney Islands
East Renfrewshire
Dumfries & Galloway
Argyll & Bute
Inverclyde
Moray
City of Edinburgh
Highland
Aberdeenshire
South Ayrshire
Scottish Borders
Fife
Eilean Siar
South Lanarkshire
North Ayrshire
Falkirk
Perth & Kinross
West Lothian
Angus
North Lanarkshire
Glasgow City
Dundee City
East Dunbartonshire
Renfrewshire
Clackmannanshire
Aberdeen City
East Lothian
East Ayrshire
West Dunbartonshire
Stirling
0%
% P1-3
freeschoolmeal
uptake
2016
Local authority
Uptake of free meals among P4-7 pupils also varied between local authorities.
There were 11 local authorities that reported small but significant decreases in
P4-7 free-meal uptake in 2016, ranging from 1.3% to 3% (Figure 6; Table 2 in
web appendix).
Without longitudinal disaggregated data we are unable to determine the
natural year-on-year variation in uptake at a local authority level. However,
with almost two-thirds of local authorities reporting a continued increase in
P1-3 free-meal uptake, this is a positive indication of increased impact of the
universal policy. P4-7 free-school-meal uptake should be monitored closely for
further and consistent decreases which would warrant closer investigation.
10
Figure 6. Change in P4-7 free-school-meal uptake, 2015-16
Stirling
-3
Midlothian
-2.4
East Ayrshire
-2.2
West Lothian
-2.1
City of Edinburgh
-2
Glasgow City
-1.7
Aberdeen City
-1.6
Scottish Borders
-1.6
Fife
-1.5
Falkirk
-1.5
South Ayrshire
-1.5
Local authority
North Lanarkshire
-1.3
Inverclyde
-1.2
Angus
-1.2
East Lothian
-1.1
North Ayrshire
-1.1
Argyll & Bute
-1
East Renfrewshire
-0.9
Highland
-0.7
South Lanarkshire
-0.6
Eilean Siar
-0.6
Aberdeenshire
-0.4
Renfrewshire
-0.3
East Dunbartonshire
-0.3
Moray
-0.2
Shetland Islands
-0.1
West Dunbartonshire
-0.1
Dumfries & Galloway
-0.1
Perth & Kinross
0
Clackmannanshire
0.3
Orkney Islands
0.4
Dundee City
0.6
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
% point change
Change in school-meal (free and paid) uptake among P4-7 pupils also varied
across local authorities in 2016. A total of 10 local authorities saw significant
decreases, ranging from 2% to 9%, and 11 saw significant increases, ranging
from 1.8% to 6.8% (Figure 7; Table 2 in web appendix).
11
1
Local authority
Figure 7. Change in P4-7 school-meal uptake, 2015-16
East Dunbartonshire
Stirling
Falkirk
Angus
Eilean Siar
Clackmannanshire
Scottish Borders
West Dunbartonshire
North Ayrshire
Aberdeen City
Orkney Islands
East Lothian
Argyll & Bute
Aberdeenshire
City of Edinburgh
Inverclyde
West Lothian
North Lanarkshire
East Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
Dumfries & Galloway
Glasgow City
Fife
South Lanarkshire
East Renfrewshire
Renfrewshire
Shetland Islands
Highland
Perth & Kinross
Midlothian
Moray
Dundee City
-9
-10.0
-6.3
-6.1
-5.9
-5.9
-5.7
-8.0
-4.5
-6.0
-2.4
-2.1
-2
-1.9
-4.0
-2.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
1.5
1.8
1.8
2.4
2.4
2.6
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.7
4.3
4.6
2.0
4.0
5.8
6.0
6.8
8.0
% point change
School data
In 2016, school-meal (free and paid) and free-school-meal uptake continued
to vary by school-level deprivation. The most deprived 25% of primary schools
continued to report the highest levels of free-meal uptake in 2016 (Figure 9).
12
Mean free-school-meal uptake (%of pupils)
Figure 9. Mean free-school-meal uptake by school deprivation
quartile 2014-16*
50
45
40
42.742.8
47.347.3
47.147.1
45.946.1
35
30
2014
25
20
15
2016
18.2
15.9
10
2015
23.4
22.3
5
0
Q1 (least deprived
25% of schools)
Q2
Q3
Q4 (most deprived
25% of schools)
school-level deprivation
*Note: UFSM for P1-3 pupils was introduced from 2015
Schools classified as remote/rural, which captures all of the island local
authorities, had the highest levels of school-meal (free and paid) and freemeal uptake in 2016 (Figure 10).5
Figure 10. Primary school-meal (free and paid) uptake by
urban/rural indicator of school, 2016
Average school-meal uptake (% of pupils)
90
80
70
77.5
62.5
61.9
60
50
77.4
77.3
48.9
61.9
51
82.9
80.2
74.9
71.5
65.1
61.5
53.7
51.2
49.9
63
40
All Primary
30
P1-P3
P4-P7
20
10
0
Large urban Other urban
Accessible
towns
Remote
towns
Accessible
rural
Remote rural
Urban/rural indicator of school
5
Source: Scottish Government (2016) Healthy Living Survey Statistics.
13
Recommendations
Continued monitoring of free-school meals and overall school-meal uptake
would allow:
•
assessment of the longer-term impact of UFSM on lunch choices of
eligible children, especially after they move into primary 4
•
monitoring of the impact of UFSM on school-meal uptake among older
non-eligible primary pupils
•
identification of schools and local authorities with lower levels of freeschool-meal uptake which may require support to increase uptake.
14
Web appendix: Additional tables
See www.healthscotland.com/documents/28354.aspx for additional Excel
data.
15
5952 10/2016 © NHS Health Scotland 2016
www.healthscotland.com