Smart Growth on the Ground FOUNDATION RESEARCH BULLETIN: Squamish Research compiled by: Murray Journeay, at Natural Resources Canada No. 6 March, 2005 Natural Hazards and Risk 1.0 Introduction “Deciding how to use land is demanding enough. It is even more daunting if there are competing views about the role that land should play in reducing collective exposure to risk. Considerations invariably revolve around whose land it is, whose risk is involved most emphatically and who is to benefit. Too often, the desire for short-term gains override anticipated benefits that stretch further into the future. For these reasons, land-use management and planning [at all jurisdictional levels] needs to be considered as a natural extension of conducting hazard assessments and risk mapping.” 1 Context & Focus News reports provide us with an ongoing and sobering account of the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards, and the extent to which they impact communities both near and far. Within the space of only a few months this past year, we have witnessed the impacts of paired mega-thrust earthquake and tsunami events in southeast Asia, a cluster of landslide events that jarred neighborhoods in North Vancouver and the Lower Mainland, and a succession of major flooding events that have impacted communities up and down the west coast of North America. Natural disasters occur along the interface between this evolving landscape and human activity. As a mountain community nestled at the confluence of five major river systems that have carved through towering glaciated peaks of an active volcanic belt, Squamish is no stranger to the concepts of natural hazards, vulnerability and risk. The consequences of major flood and landslide events of the past century are etched in the landscape and in the memories of those who have made their home here over the years. The record of significant natural hazard events stretches even further back in geologic time. As the community continues to grow, so to do potential levels of vulnerability and risk (physical and socio-economic) associated with increased exposure to natural hazards. There is increasing pressure to preserve and protect remaining agricultural and ecologically sensitive lands, and to optimize settlement patterns and operational systems to gain efficiencies in land use, resource consumption and infrastructure development. Though motivated by sound landscape ethics and a desire to promote social and economic well-being, these design principles can in some cases be compromised by inadvertently situating people and development in areas exposed to increased probabilities of natural hazard events. Understanding hazard-related landscape risks associated with both existing settlement and future development alternatives provides an important context for community design, planning and strategic land use decision making, and is arguably one of the key foundations for establishing ‘smart’ and resilient communities. Design Centre for Sustainability at the University of British Columbia 1 - No. 6 This bulletin provides a brief snapshot of the most significant natural hazard threats for Squamish, and introduces preliminary results of a multi-hazard risk assessment framework to assist the community in evaluating: Multi-hazard exposure expressed in terms of spatial extent, magnitude and likelihood of occurrence at any point on the landscape, The vulnerability of people and property assets expressed in terms of physical and socio-economic impacts at any point on the landscape, Choices and consequences of community development and land use alternatives, expressed in terms of risk scenarios and evaluated in terms of costs and benefits (‘what-if’ scenario modeling/portfolio analysis), Levels of risk tolerance for various land use and community development activities, and Strategies for mitigating natural hazards (warning systems, physical barriers and land use options) that take into account jurisdictional authority and available resources. 2.0 Dimensions of Risk Multi-hazard risk assessment is a field of research and practice that brings together expertise in the fields of geology, geotechnical engineering, economics, social and physical geography, policy analysis and planning. The risk analysis component (Figure 1, left-hand activity flow) addresses the physical and probabilistic dimensions of the hazard event and involves the compilation and synthesis of available scientific and technical information describing the extent, magnitude and spatial probabilities of natural hazards in both human and geological contexts. The risk assessment Figure 1: As outlined in the ISDR report component of the process (Figure 1, right-hand activity flow) addresses the consequences of multi‘Living with Risk’ hazard events and involves: a) analysis of physical vulnerabilities as determined by landscape exposure and varying capacities of fixed assets (property, infrastructure, etc.) to withstand structural and content damage, and b) analysis of socio-economic vulnerabilities as determined by overall awareness and understanding of potential consequences (risk perception) and community capacity to respond and recover from a disaster event (social and economic capital). Iteration and feedback between these activity streams facilitates the translation of hazard and vulnerability information into an integrated landscape planning and policy development context, whereby choices and consequences (scenario alternatives) can be evaluated in light of political and economic constraints (cost/benefit analysis), community priorities, and values. To ensure clear communication of results, we are adopting standardized definitions for the components of an integrated risk assessment, as outlined by the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction in their report ‘Living with Risk’. Natural Hazard: A potentially damaging natural process or phenomenon (earthquake, landslide, flood, volcanic eruption, etc) which may cause loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. Hazards are measured and described in terms of spatial extent, magnitude and likelihood of occurrence. Design Centre for Sustainability at the University of British Columbia 2 - No. 6 Vulnerability: The extent to which people, socio-economic and biophysical assets are exposed to a natural hazard in a given area. Vulnerability is measured as instances and categorized by type. Physical aspects of vulnerability assessment answer the questions: What is vulnerable? Where is it vulnerable? Socio-economic aspects of vulnerability answer the questions: Who is vulnerable? How have they become vulnerable? Risk: The probability of harmful consequences of expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic disruption or environmental degradation) resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions. Conventionally, risk is expressed by the notation: Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability. 3.0 Natural Hazard Profiles for Squamish Flood Hazards Squamish is exposed to a wide range of flood hazards. Melt water from snow pack and receding ice fields in the headwater regions of the watershed combine with atmospheric disturbances and variable river flow to produce a wide range of potential flood conditions. Watershed gradients are relatively high in the basin and most of the rivers transport large volumes of sediment. Deposition of these sediment loads can result in elevated river bed levels, leading to increased water levels for Figure 2: Downtown Squamish during the the same amount of flow. In spite of extensive flood of 1921. mitigation efforts to protect agricultural, industrial, and residential lands along the valley bottom (dykes, pump stations), Squamish has experienced a number of major flooding events (1921, 1940, 1955, 1968, 1975, 1980-1984, 1989-1991, and 2003) resulting in millions of dollars in damages and indirect losses. The Flood Management Plan for Squamish2 identifies areas exposed to threats of 200 year flood events, and land use management and planning strategies for mitigating these hazards. Areas of principle flood hazard include: SOURCE Squamish River Mamquam River Cheakamus River Cheekye River Howe Sound high tides POTENTIAL FLOOD HAZARD Flooding in Brackendale, North Yards, Dentville and downtown Squamish Flooding in Garibaldi Estates, North Yards, Dentville and downtown Squamish Flooding and erosion in the Cheakamus Valley Debris Flows and avulsion flooding on the Cheekye Fan Flooding in downtown Squamish The Provincial government completed initial flood hazard mapping for the District of Squamish in 1986. The resulting maps (Appendix 1a) define the extent and magnitude of potential flood hazards and recommended flood construction levels (FCL). FCL are based on computed water elevations of the river during a 200-year flood event, and include an allowance of ~4 meters to account for uncertainties in the analysis and variations in flood conditions. The maps provide the basis for a regulatory and land use planning framework2 to ensure that all new residential buildings are constructed with the underside of the first floor above established FCL. We have calculated water depths and flow directions for 200 and 20-year flood events using standard interpolation techniques and available FCL elevation data. Resulting flood depth maps (Appendix 1a) are used to assess physical vulnerability associated with inundation of flood waters (standard depth-damage functions), and provide a basis for evaluating risk scenarios for existing and future development. Design Centre for Sustainability at the University of British Columbia 3 - No. 6 Debris Flow Hazards on the Cheekye Fan Geotechnical investigations spurred by subdivision and community development interests on the Cheekye Fan in the 1970’s led to the recognition of significant landslide hazard potential on the slopes south of the Cheekye River. They also initiated what has become one of the most thorough hazard-vulnerability-risk assessments of landslide potential in Canada3. Commissioned by the Municipality and the Provincial Gevernment, Thurber Engineering and Golder Associates undertook extensive geological and geotechnical studies of the Cheekye River Basin3. Although a number of smaller areas of landslide hazard potential were identified, the principle focus of the investigation was to characterize and evaluate potential impacts of a catastrophic debris flow, similar in spatial extent and magnitude to post-glacial events preserved in the geologic record. Results of the Thurber-Golder study suggested the potential for a large magnitude debris flow event (7 million m3; 1,700 m3/s) originating from a breached landslide dam on the Cheekye River, with an return period of 10,000 years and corresponding annual probabilities of occurrence (1/50 to 1/2,500) for the most hazardous zones (>2 m thickness), well in excess of acceptable risk tolerances. Potential run-out zones were modeled for current state conditions and for mitigation scenarios involving the construction of deflection berms on the fan surface to protect exposed regions of Brackendale and critical infrastructure (Appendix1b). The study also recommended land use and regulatory guidelines to reduce risk levels on Cheekye Fan, many of which have been incorporated into the existing Official Community Plan. Figure 3a: Looking WSW down the debris flow path to the Cheekye Fan, b: Example of a debris flow run-out zone and associated impacts in a settled portion of Kootenay Lake (Kuskonook Creek slide) Subsequent geologic investigations led to significant revisions of debris flow scenarios, including trigger mechanisms, maximum credible magnitude and likely return period estimates4. This new information is incorporated into geotechnical studies of Kerr Wood Leidal,5 who were commissioned to assess overall feasibility and to develop design guidelines for the construction of a series of deflection berms that would accommodate revised estimates of debris flow magnitude and discharge rates. Scenario models were developed to simulate run out areas, thicknesses and velocities of a large magnitude debris flow event (5-7 million m3/15,000 m3/s), and to establish optimal mitigation design criteria (Appendix 1b). The model results suggest that debris flow hazards may have been over-estimated, both in terms of magnitude and likelihood of occurrence. Nevertheless, thicknesses and flow velocities for both debris flow scenarios are capable of producing loss of life and significant damage in areas of greatest exposure (>2m thickness). Refer to Appendix 1b and original studies for detailed explanations. Design Centre for Sustainability at the University of British Columbia 4 - No. 6 Earthquake Hazards Earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia occur along the subduction zone interface between oceanic crust of the Juan de Fuca plate and overriding continental crust of the North American plate (offshore Vancouver Island); within the down-going slab of oceanic crust as it sinks beneath western North America; and along inter-locking networks of faults within the overriding North American plate (Figure 4). Figure 4: Cascadia subduction zone, highlighting key source areas for earthquakes. Subduction Zone Event: Rupture along the entire locked portion of the subduction zone boundary (~1000 km) would release seismic energy equivalent to a M9-9.2 earthquake (Flueck et al., 1997), similar in magnitude to recent events in Southeast Asia. Ground motions associated with such an event would be greatest along the outer coast of Vancouver Island, and would diminish inland. More conservative scenarios suggest rupture along a shorter segment of the subduction zone boundary (~300 km), involving both the locked zone, and parts of the adjacent transition zone. It is estimated that such an event, were it to occur along the northern segment of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, would be capable of producing local ground motions near the epicenter equivalent to a M8.5 earthquake. Intraplate ‘Benioff’ Zone Event: The distribution of earthquake epicentres, together with seismic reflection and refraction profiling indicate that the subducting oceanic crust of the Juan de Fuca plate steepens to ~30 o at a depth of 45-65 km beneath eastern Vancouver Island and the Strait of Georgia. Modeling of seismic potential scenarios for this portion of the subducting plate suggests maximum ground motions equivalent to a M7.0 -7.5 earthquake (Adams et al., 1996); similar to the Nisqually earthquake, Feb., 2001. Shallow Crustal Earthquakes: Based on historic recurrence intervals for earthquakes in northern Cascadia (Basham et al., 1982), it is generally assumed that shallow seismic events of M6.5-M7.0 could occur in the Cascade and Coast Mountains. There is not yet enough detailed information on active fault structures in the region to refine hazard assessments for this type of earthquake scenario. Corresponding peak ground acceleration and ground shaking indices (Modified Mercalli Index) have been computed for a variety of credible earthquake scenarios in southwest British Columbia using standard ground shaking algorithms6, and site response criteria (bedrock and surficial geology) provided by the Earth Sciences Sector (Natural Hazards and Emergency Response Program) of Natural Resources Canada. Outputs of these computed scenarios include a series of maps that portray the spatial distribution of shaking intensity for the Squamish area (Appendix 1c). To further constrain estimates of earthquake shaking hazard (spatial extent and intensity), earth scientists with NRCan are in the process of conducting detailed micro-tremor measurements to help identify areas with greatest potential for ground motion amplification and liquefaction. Results of these studies will be incorporated into seismic hazard micro-zonation maps used in this study to refine shaking intensity calculations and to estimate vulnerabilities and risks associated with a variety of potential earthquake scenarios. Design Centre for Sustainability at the University of British Columbia 5 - No. 6 4.0 Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment This bulletin highlights preliminary results of an integrated multi-hazard risk assessment undertaken in support of ongoing strategic planning activities in the District of Squamish (Appendix 1d,e). The scope of work encompasses both initial phases of multi-hazard risk analysis and assessment (Figure 1). It is based on the premise that any development or land use activity (existing or proposed) has the potential to either increase or decrease risks associated with natural hazards. The study leverages available knowledge and expertise from the scientific, geotechnical and planning communities to help identify and evaluate community design and planning strategies that will reduce the impact of natural hazards, thereby minimizing the risks to life, property and ecosystem services. The analysis is based on a deterministic ‘what-if’ scenario modeling approach that evaluates physical vulnerabilities (damage estimates) associated with single or combined hazard events that have been already been identified and evaluated as likely threats to the community. These include: Floods: 20 and 200 year flood events modeled as part of the Klohn Leonoff Flood Management Plan2 (Appendix 1a) Landslides: large magnitude debris flow events (un-mitigated and mitigated) modeled by Thurber-Golder3 and by Kerr Wood Leidal5 as part of the Cheekye Fan landslide hazard and deflection berm mitigation studies (Appendix 1b), and Earthquakes: a variety of maximum credible earthquake events (subduction zone, benioff zone and shallow crustal events) modeled herein. The risk assessment component of the study currently evaluates only physical vulnerabilities (damage to property and fixed assets), using standard direct loss estimation methodologies from the literature. The modeling approach has the capacity to include indirect loss estimations (interruption of business, damage to critical infrastructure social capital), and will be expanded as this information becomes available and as methodologies for evaluating socio-cultural assets are refined. To help frame the discussion and deliberation of risks associated with community design and development alternatives being considered as part of the Smart Growth on the Ground design charrette and the DOS Growth Management study, we are piloting the use of a Disaster Risk Index (DRI) that measures both single and multi-hazard vulnerabilities associated with multi-hazard event scenarios. The index is currently evaluated in terms of direct loss to property and fixed assets at any given location on the landscape, and provides a uniform Figure 4: Impacts of debris flow measure of impacts associated with a wide range of natural hazard scenarios. The DRI methodology used in this study is similar in principle to that introduced in 2004 by the United Nations Development Programme (Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery)7 but uses building damage as the principle indicator of vulnerability. Preliminary outputs of the Disaster Risk Index (Appendix 1d,e) are reported in terms of cumulative damage rate (Levels 1-10), and provide a lens through which to evaluate damage cost estimates for both existing settlement and proposed community development alternatives. These vlnerability and risk analyses will be used in developing cost-benefit risk scenarios (using the USGS portfolio modeler8) to help support ongoing deliberations and to optimize mitigation strategies in the community. Design Centre for Sustainability at the University of British Columbia 6 - No. 6 APPENDIX 1: Natural Hazard and Risk Maps Design Centre for Sustainability at the University of British Columbia 7 - No. 6 Flood Hazard Assessment Ch ea mu a k s DRAFT v1.0 R. Cat Lake 200 Year Flood Hazards BCAA _parcels FCL_elevations Geodetic_Contours Stump Lake Fan_Flood_Avulsion DPTH_MAX 1.00 1.01 - 2.00 CHEEKYE FAN Flood Depth (200yr) Alice Lake 0-1m 1-2m 2-3m 3-4m 4-5m 5-6m 5-7m BRACKENDALE 7-8m EAGLE RUN 8-9m 9-10m 10-11m GARIBALDI ESTATES GARIBALDI HIGHLANDS M am qu am R. NOTE: See SGOG Foundation Research Bulletin on 'Living with Natural Hazards,' for explanation of the Flood Hazard Assessment DENTVILLE NORTHRIDGE SQUAMISH DOWNTOWN LLE VA aw St 2 a F LIF YC R us 1 . E . 0 Kilometers 2 Landslide Hazard Assessment; Cheekye Fan Debris Flow Un-Mitigated Debris Flow Scenario Mitigation via Deflection Berm Scenario Thurber-Golder Study 1993; Maximum Credible Debris Flow Scenario (7Mm3; 1,700 m3.sec). TG-Scenario 1 DPTH_MAX (0.3-2m) Debris filling the flood plain in some locations, possible temporary landslide 1.00 - 2.00 dam several metres high, complete change of flow patterns in river, possible small outburst wave, erosion of fan margin scarp. 2.01 - 4.00 (2-4m) Slow movements, thin discontinuous deposits strongly controlled by topographic details and obstructions. Structural damage minor, erosion by water flow in new channels. 4.01 - 6.00 (4-6m) Less rapid but still very destructive debris flow, deposits of variable thickness, preferential flow along open corridors, some forest stands and structures will remain standing (>6m) Extremely rapid movement of massive debris trains, deep deposition, forest cover and all structures destroyed, topography changed. Un-Mitigated Debris Flow Scenario Mitigation via Deflection Berm Scenario Kerr-Wood Leidal Study 2003; Maximum Credible Debris Flow Scenario (7Mm3; 15,000 m3.sec) KWL_Scenario1 DPTH_MAX 0 1.5 3 Kilometers 6 . 0.30 - 2.00 (0.3-2m) Debris filling the flood plain in some locations, possible temporary landslide dam several metres high, complete change of flow patterns in river, possible small outburst 2.01 - 4.00 wave, erosion of fan margin scarp. (2-4m) Slow movements, thin discontinuous deposits strongly controlled by topographic details 4.01 - 6.00 and obstructions. Structural damage minor, erosion by water flow in new channels. (4-6m) Less rapid but still very destructive debris flow, deposits of variable thickness, preferential 6.01 - 8.00 flow along open corridors, some forest stands and structures will remain standing 8.01 - 10.00 (>6m) Extremely rapid movement of massive debris trains, deep deposition, forest cover and all structures destroyed, topography changed. Seismic Hazard Assessment Ch ea mu a k s DRAFT v1.0 R. Cat Lake Stump Lake NOTE: The 'Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) used to generate thjs scenario is an intraplate 'Benioff Zone' event with a magnitude of 6.8 and at a depth of 50km. Similar in magnitude to the recent deep focus event in the Seattle- Tacoma area. See SGOG Foundation Research Bulletin on 'Living with Natural Hazards,' for details CHEEKYE FAN Alice Lake BRACKENDALE EAGLE RUN Seismic Hazards BCAA _parcels Micro Tremor Stations <all other values> GEOLOGY . ! 'Soft' Sediments . ! Glacial Till-1 . ! Glacial Till-2 GARIBALDI ESTATES MCE_Scenario2_BZ_MMI MMIVALUE GARIBALDI HIGHLANDS 4.50000 4.50001 - 5.50000 . 5.50001 - 6.50000 M am qu am R. DENTVILLE NORTHRIDGE SQUAMISH DOWNTOWN LLE VA aw St 2 a F LIF YC R us 1 E . 0 Kilometers 2 NOTE: See SGOG Foundation Research Bulletin on 'Living with Natural Hazards,' for explanation of the Disaster Risk Index methodology and interpretation of results. Ch ea m ka R us . Cat Lake Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis Stump Lake DRAFT v1.0 CHEEKYE FAN Alice Lake BRACKENDALE EAGLE RUN Disaster Risk Index (DRI) BCAA _parcels MH_Index mh_raw ٛ ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " GARIBALDI ESTATES Level 1 Level 2 GARIBALDI HIGHLANDS Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Mamquam R. Level 7 Level 8 Level 9 Level 10 . DENTVILLE NORTHRIDGE SQUAMISH DOWNTOWN LLE VA a St 2 wa F LIF YC R us . E Multi-Hazard Profile Earthquake Scenario: Benioff Zone Intraplate Event (Magnitude 6.8/50km), located in Georgia Strait Landslide Scenario: Kerr-Wood Leidal (un-mitigated) debris flow event (7Mm3/15,000m3/s) Flood Event: 200yr Flood Event (FCL's as determined by Klohn-Leonoff Flood Management Study) 1 0 Kilometers 2 NOTE: The analysis of potentially developable lands was prepared by Sheltair in support of the DOS Growth Management Study. NOTE: See SGOG Foundation Research Bulletin on 'Living with Natural Hazards,' for explanation of the Disaster Risk Index methodology and interpretation of results. Ch ea m ka R us . Cat Lake Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis Stump Lake DRAFT v1.0 CHEEKYE FAN Alice Lake BRACKENDALE EAGLE RUN Disaster Risk Index (DRI) BCAA _parcels Potentially_Developable_Lands MH_Index mh_raw ٛ ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " ٛ " GARIBALDI ESTATES Level 1 Level 2 GARIBALDI HIGHLANDS Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Mamquam R. Level 7 Level 8 Level 9 Level 10 . DENTVILLE NORTHRIDGE SQUAMISH DOWNTOWN LLE VA a St 2 wa F LIF YC R us . E Multi-Hazard Profile Earthquake Scenario: Benioff Zone Intraplate Event (Magnitude 6.8/50km), located in Georgia Strait Landslide Scenario: Kerr-Wood Leidal (un-mitigated) debris flow event (7Mm3/15,000m3/s) Flood Event: 200yr Flood Event (FCL's as determined by Klohn-Leonoff Flood Management Study) 1 0 Kilometers 2 APPENDIX 2: Backgrounder The work presented in this bulletin represents initial outputs of cross-border collaboration between the Earth Sciences Sector of Natural Resources Canada (ESS Pathways Project/ Natural Hazards and Emergency Response Program), the U.S. Geological Survey (Science Impacts Program) and a consortia of academic and private sector partners. The study builds on the results of ground-breaking work by the geotechnical community in evaluating flood2 and landslide3,5 hazards on lands within the District of Squamish (extent, magnitude and likelihood), and in providing expertise and recommendations to Municipal and Provincial governments on how best to incorporate this knowledge into a formal planning context (mitigation strategies, land use guidelines, etc). It also leverages ongoing studies to refine existing landslide and seismic hazard assessment along the Sea-to-Sky corridor by private and academic partners and by research colleagues working with the Natural Hazards and Emergency Response Program of the Earth Science Sector (NRCan). Preliminary outputs of the study include: 1) development of an integrated multi-hazard risk assessment framework that brings together leading edge approaches to hazard susceptibility mapping and risk-based scenario modeling, 2) a draft hazard-vulnerability-risk assessment (HVRA) for use by the Squamish community and its partners in evaluating strategic growth alternatives, and 3) Implementation of ‘what-if’ scenario modeling and web-based decision support tools to promote the uptake and use of available scientific and geotechnical information in support of ongoing strategic and emergency planning activities. Together, these components form the basis of an operational decision support system to assist planners in evaluating risk levels of existing settlement and future development alternatives. Ongoing work focuses on the refinement of risk assessment and scenario modeling methodologies and an evaluation of their use in support of community planning. Our intent is to broaden the dimensions of risk analysis to include both landscape-based heuristic assessment of landslide susceptibility, and spatial assessment of multi-hazard probability for the purpose of validating and refining existing model outputs, and to better evaluate the likelihood (and associated uncertainties) of unanticipated natural hazard events that may impact the community. For more information, contact: Murray Journeay, Research Scientist Earth Sciences Sector, Natural Resources Canada 101-605 Robson St. Vancouver, BC V6B 5J3 ph: 604.666.1130 email: [email protected] Design Centre for Sustainability at the University of British Columbia 13 - No. 6 Notes ISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), 2001. Living with Risk; A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives. 2 Klohn- Leonoff, 1994. Flood Management Plan for Squamish (Final report and background study) 3 Thurber Associates and Golder Associates Ltd. 1993. The Cheekeye River Terrain Hazard and Landslide Study. Final Report prepared for British Columbia Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks, Bumaby, B.C. 4 Clague, J.J., Friele, P. and I. Hutchinson. 2003. Chronology and hazards of large debris flows in the Cheekye River basin, British Columbia. Environmental and Engineering Geoscience, v.9, pp99-115. 5 Kerr Wood Leidal Associates. 2003. Preliminary Design Report for Cheekye Fan Deflection Berms. 6 Webb, T.M., 1999. NHEMATIS. Project overview and future framework. A report prepared for Emergency Preparedness Canada by Nobility Environmental Software Systems. 7 Reducing Disaster Risk; A Challenge for Development, 2004. A Global Report, produced by the United Nations Development Programme (www.undp.org/bcpr) 8 Bernkopf, R., Dinitz, l., Rabinovici, J.m., and Evans, A.M. 2001. A Portfolio Approach to Evaluating Natural Hazard Mitigation Policies. International Geology Review, v43. pp. 424-440. 1 Contact Us Design Centre for Sustainability University of British Columbia, 394-2357 Main Mall, V6T 1Z4 t. 604-822-5148, f. 604-822-2184 For more information visit the following websites: www.designcentreforsustainability.org, ww.sgog.bc.ca Design Centre for Sustainability at the University of British Columbia 14 - No. 6
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