Chapter 13

Photo: Anders Ryman/Corbis
Chapter 13
Adapting tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to
climate change: Management measures, policies and
investments
Johann D Bell, Neil L Andrew, Michael J Batty, Lindsay B Chapman,
Jeffrey M Dambacher, Brian Dawson, Alexandre S Ganachaud, Peter C Gehrke,
John Hampton, Alistair J Hobday, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Johanna E Johnson,
Jeff P Kinch, Robert Le Borgne, Patrick Lehodey, Janice M Lough,
Timothy D Pickering, Morgan S Pratchett, Aliti Vunisea and Michelle Waycott
‘Fisheries policy makers should now turn their attention to the development and
implementation of climate change adaptation strategies.’ (Davis 2010)i
L
'DYLV-&&KDLU·VVXPPDU\,Q7KH(FRQRPLFVRI$GDSWLQJ)LVKHULHVWR&OLPDWH&KDQJH2(&'
3XEOLVKLQJ3DULV)UDQFHSS²
803
Contents
804
Page
13.1 Introduction
805
13.2 Existing management regimes and approaches
13.2.1 Oceanic fisheries
13.2.2 Coastal fisheries
13.2.3 Freshwater and estuarine fisheries
13.2.4 Aquaculture
13.2.5 A human rights approach
806
806
808
810
811
812
13.3 A framework for selecting adaptations
812
13.4 Recommended adaptations and suggested supporting policies
13.4.1 Adaptations for economic development and government
revenue (E)
13.4.2 Supporting policies for economic development and
government revenue (E)
13.4.3 Adaptations for maintaining the contribution of fish
to food security (F)
13.4.4 Supporting policies for maintaining the contribution
of fish to food security (F)
13.4.5 Adaptations for maximising sustainable livelihoods (L)
13.4.6 Supporting policies for maximising sustainable livelihoods (L)
813
815
819
821
832
834
837
13.5 Interactions among adaptations
838
13.6 Planning needed to implement key adaptations
840
13.7 The need for monitoring
843
13.8 Gaps in knowledge
13.8.1 Knowledge needed to improve the understanding of vulnerability
13.8.2 Knowledge needed to implement adaptations effectively
844
845
852
13.9 Investments required
853
13.10 Considerations for financing adaptations
863
13.11 Concluding remarks
864
References
867
Appendix
875
CHAPTER 13
13.1 Introduction
7KH PDLQ SXUSRVH RI WKLV ERRN LV WR DVVHVV KRZ FKDQJHV SURMHFWHG WR RFFXU XQGHU
ORZ % DQG KLJK $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV LQ DQG FRXOG GHUDLO SODQV E\
WKH3DFLÀF,VODQGFRXQWULHVDQGWHUULWRULHV3,&7VWRXVHWKHVXVWDLQDEOHEHQHÀWVRI
ÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHWRIRVWHUHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWJRYHUQPHQWUHYHQXHIRRG
VHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGV&KDSWHUVDQG
7KHVH SODQV DOUHDG\ LQYROYH DGDSWDWLRQ UHVSRQVHV ¶DGDSWDWLRQV· DQG SROLFLHV
WR DGGUHVV RWKHU LPSRUWDQW LQÁXHQFHV RQ ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH HVSHFLDOO\
SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG WKH DVVRFLDWHG GHPDQG IRU PRUH HPSOR\PHQW +RZHYHU LW
LVFOHDUWKDWWKHSURMHFWHGFKDQJHVWRVXUIDFHFOLPDWHDQGWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀF2FHDQ
&KDSWHUV DQG ÀVK KDELWDWV &KDSWHUV ² DQG ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH
SURGXFWLRQ &KDSWHUV ² FRXOG DIIHFW WKH SODQV WR PD[LPLVH VXVWDLQDEOH EHQHÀWV
IURP WKH VHFWRU ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI JOREDO ZDUPLQJ DQG RFHDQ
DFLGLÀFDWLRQ PD\ LPSHGH VRPH DVSHFWV RI WKHVH SODQV ZKHUHDV RWKHU HIIHFWV RI
FOLPDWHFKDQJHFRXOGEULQJLPSRUWDQWEHQHÀWV&KDSWHU
)LVKHULHV PDQDJHUV WKURXJKRXW WKH UHJLRQ ZLOO QHHG WR VWUHQJWKHQ H[LVWLQJ DQG
SODQQHGDGDSWDWLRQVDQGODXQFKQHZLQWHUYHQWLRQVWRPLQLPLVHWKUHDWVDQGKDUQHVV
RSSRUWXQLWLHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ
RFHDQLFFRDVWDODQGIUHVKZDWHUÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUH&KDSWHUV²
&RQVLGHUDWLRQV WKDW IUDPH WKH LGHQWLÀFDWLRQ RI SUDFWLFDO DGDSWDWLRQV DUH WKH
H[WUDRUGLQDU\ UHOLDQFH RI 3,&7V RQ ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH &KDSWHU WKH
ZLGH UDQJH RI ÀVKHULHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ IURP JOREDOO\ VLJQLÀFDQW LQGXVWULDO WXQD
ÁHHWV WR VXEVLVWHQFH DQG VPDOOVFDOH FRPPHUFLDO DFWLYLWLHV ZLWK YHU\ KLJK OHYHOV RI
SDUWLFLSDWLRQDQGWKHHPSKDVLVRQJRYHUQDQFHRIQDWLRQDODQGUHJLRQDOLQGXVWULDO
WXQDÀVKLQJEXWIUHTXHQWQHJOHFWRIVPDOOVFDOHÀVKHULHVFUXFLDOWRIRRGVHFXULW\DQG
OLYHOLKRRGV²&KDSWHUVDQG
$GDSWDWLRQV IRU ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH PXVW DOVR FRPSOHPHQW WKRVH SURSRVHG
E\ RWKHU VHFWRUV HJ DJULFXOWXUH DQG IRUHVWU\ WR GLYHUVLI\ WKH UDQJH RI RSWLRQV IRU
SURGXFLQJIRRGDQGHDUQLQJLQFRPH7KHJUHDWHUWKHQXPEHURISURGXFWLRQV\VWHPV
DYDLODEOHWRFRPPXQLWLHVWKHJUHDWHUWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWVRPHV\VWHPVZLOOQRWEH
DIIHFWHGDQGPD\HYHQEHIDYRXUHGE\WKHFKDQJLQJFOLPDWH
7KLV FKDSWHU VHWV RXW WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ QHHGHG E\ VWDNHKROGHUV LQ WKH ÀVKHULHV
DQG DTXDFXOWXUH VHFWRU DW DOO OHYHOV WR UHGXFH WKH WKUHDWV DQG FDSLWDOLVH RQ WKH
RSSRUWXQLWLHVFUHDWHGE\FOLPDWHFKDQJH,QSDUWLFXODUZH
¾ RXWOLQHWKHH[LVWLQJPDQDJHPHQWUHJLPHVDQGLQLWLDWLYHVIRULQGXVWULDODQGVPDOO
VFDOHÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHLQWKHUHJLRQWRVHFXUHGHVLUHGKXPDQGHYHORSPHQW
RXWFRPHVDQGPDLQWDLQKHDOWK\ÀVKVWRFNV
805
¾ LGHQWLI\DQDSSURSULDWHIUDPHZRUNIRUVHOHFWLQJSUDFWLFDODGDSWDWLRQVWRDGGUHVV
WKHNH\QHDUWHUPGULYHUVIRUÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHDQGWKHIXWXUHHIIHFWVRI
FOLPDWHFKDQJH
¾ UHFRPPHQG DGDSWDWLRQV DQG VXJJHVW SROLF\ DSSURDFKHV WR PD[LPLVH WKH
FRQWULEXWLRQVRIÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHWRHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWJRYHUQPHQW
UHYHQXHIRRGVHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGVDVWKHFOLPDWHFKDQJHV
¾ RXWOLQHWKHYDOXHRIPRGHOOLQJWRH[DPLQHLQWHUDFWLRQVDPRQJDGDSWDWLRQRSWLRQV
¾ H[SODLQWKHQHHGWRPRQLWRUWKHSURMHFWHGHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQWKHVHFWRU
¾ VXPPDULVH WKH JDSV LQ NQRZOHGJH WR EH ÀOOHG WR LPSURYH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH
YXOQHUDELOLW\RIÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHLQWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀFWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH
DQGWRÀQHWXQHNH\DGDSWDWLRQV
¾ LGHQWLI\ SULRULW\ LQYHVWPHQWV QHHGHG WR DSSO\ WKH PDLQ DGDSWDWLRQV ÀOO JDSV LQ
NQRZOHGJH VWUHQJWKHQ SDUWQHUVKLSV PRQLWRU WKH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH
FKDQJHDQGPHDVXUHWKHVXFFHVVRIDGDSWDWLRQVDQG
¾ FRQVLGHUVRXUFHVRIIXQGLQJWRPDNHWKHQHFHVVDU\LQYHVWPHQWV
:H HPSKDVLVH WKDW DGDSWDWLRQV DQG SROLFLHV WR EXLOG WKH UHVLOLHQFH RI WKH 3DFLÀF
FRPPXQLWLHV WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH VKRXOG QRW EH YLHZHG MXVW IURP D VFLHQWLÀF RU
WHFKQLFDOSHUVSHFWLYH²WKHQHHGVDQGDVSLUDWLRQVRISHRSOHPXVWDOVREHLQWHJUDWHG
8QGHUVWDQGLQJ KRZ SHRSOH DUH DIIHFWHG DQG KRZ WKHLU WUDGLWLRQDO NQRZOHGJH
FDSDFLWLHV DQG SHUVSHFWLYHV FDQ KHOS GHYHORS DQG LPSOHPHQW DGDSWDWLRQV LV D YLWDO
SDUWRIWKHSURFHVV&RPPXQLW\LLFRQVXOWDWLRQDQGSDUWLFLSDWLRQDUHHVVHQWLDOWRHQVXUH
WKDW DGDSWDWLRQV LQFRUSRUDWH D KXPDQ ULJKWV DQG KXPDQ GHYHORSPHQW DSSURDFK
WR DFKLHYH JHQGHU HTXDOLW\ PDLQWDLQ UHOHYDQW WUDGLWLRQDO FXVWRPV DQG FXOWXUH DQG
HPSRZHU\RXQJSHRSOH²
13.2 Existing management regimes and approaches
13.2.1 Oceanic fisheries
3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV DUH DFXWHO\ DZDUH WKDW WKHLU DVSLUDWLRQV
WR PD[LPLVH WKH HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO EHQHÀWV RI WKH UHJLRQ·V ULFK RFHDQLF ÀVKHULHV
UHVRXUFHVDUHWLHGWRVRXQGFRRSHUDWLYHPDQDJHPHQWRIWKHWUDQVERXQGDU\VWRFNV
RIWXQDDQGDVVRFLDWHGODUJHSHODJLFÀVK&KDSWHUVDQG
&RRSHUDWLYH PDQDJHPHQW RI RFHDQLF ÀVKHULHV ZDV ODXQFKHG LQ ZLWK WKH
IRUPDWLRQ RI WKH 3DFLÀF ,VODQGV )RUXP )LVKHULHV $JHQF\ ))$LLL ))$ FRRUGLQDWHV
SROLF\DGYLFHDQGWHFKQLFDOVXSSRUWWRDVVLVWPHPEHUVRIWKH3DFLÀF,VODQGV)RUXP
LL &RPPXQLW\ UHIHUV WR WKH PHQ ZRPHQ DQG FKLOGUHQ ZKR SDUWLFLSDWH LQ FDWFKLQJ SURFHVVLQJ
DQGVHOOLQJÀVK
LLL ZZZIIDLQW
806
CHAPTER 13
PDQDJH ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW E\ GLVWDQW ZDWHU ÀVKLQJ QDWLRQV ':)1V DQG GRPHVWLF
ÁHHWV ZLWKLQ WKHLU H[FOXVLYH HFRQRPLF ]RQHV ((=V 7KH )RUXP )LVKHULHV $JHQF\
KDVGHYHORSHGD¶5HJLRQDO7XQD)LVKHULHV0DQDJHPHQWDQG'HYHORSPHQW6WUDWHJ\·
ZKLFKLWLPSOHPHQWVRQEHKDOIRILWVPHPEHUFRXQWULHV7KLVVWUDWHJ\LVDVHWRIVKDUHG
SULQFLSOHVIRUWKHVXVWDLQDEOHPDQDJHPHQWRIRFHDQLFÀVKVWRFNVDQGHFRV\VWHPVDQG
HFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWEDVHGRQWXQDÀVKHULHV7KHNH\PDQDJHPHQWPHDVXUHVDQG
WUHDWLHVGHYHORSHGE\))$IRULWVPHPEHUVDUHVXPPDULVHGLQ7DEOH
%HFDXVHaRIWKHZRUOG·VWXQDFDWFKFRPHVIURPWKH((=VRIWKH3DUWLHVWRWKH
1DXUX$JUHHPHQW31$LY&KDSWHUVDQGSXUVHVHLQHÀVKLQJHIIRUWDFURVVWKHVH
]RQHVLVDOORFDWHGE\WKH'LUHFWRURIWKH31$2IÀFHWKURXJKWKHYHVVHOGD\VFKHPH
9'6 XQGHU DPHQGPHQWV WR WKH 3DODX $UUDQJHPHQW 7DEOH 7KH 31$ 2IÀFH
LQ 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV DOVR H[SORUHV FROOHFWLYH ZD\V WR LQFUHDVH WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI
WXQDUHVRXUFHVWRWKHHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWRILWVPHPEHUV,QDVLPLODUPRYHWKH
3RO\QHVLDQ FRXQWULHV KDYH ODXQFKHG WKH 7H 9DND 0RDQD $UUDQJHPHQW 790$ WR
KDUPRQLVHPDQDJHPHQWDSSURDFKHVH[FKDQJHLQIRUPDWLRQDQGRSWLPLVHWKHEHQHÀWV
IURPORQJOLQHÀVKLQJIRUWXQDLQWKHLU((=V
7KH WUDQVERXQGDU\ QDWXUH RI WKH UHJLRQ·V RFHDQLF ÀVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV ZKLFK DOVR
DOORZVWKHPWREHFDSWXUHGRQWKHKLJKVHDVFDOOVIRUDEURDGHUDSSURDFK,QUHVSRQVH
WR WKH QHHG WR PDQDJH WXQD VWRFNV DFURVV WKH HQWLUH :HVWHUQ DQG &HQWUDO 3DFLÀF
2FHDQ :&32 WKH &RQYHQWLRQ IRU WKH &RQVHUYDWLRQ DQG 0DQDJHPHQW RI +LJKO\
0LJUDWRU\)LVK6WRFNVLQWKH:HVWHUQDQG&HQWUDO3DFLÀF2FHDQZDVGHFODUHGLQY
7KH :HVWHUQ DQG &HQWUDO 3DFLÀF )LVKHULHV &RPPLVVLRQ :&3)&YL ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG
WR DGPLQLVWHU WKLV FRQYHQWLRQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV HQJDJH ZLWK
':)1VDQGRWKHUFRXQWULHVWKDWKDUYHVWWXQDLQWKH:&32VXFKDVWKH3KLOLSSLQHV
DQG ,QGRQHVLD WKURXJK WKH :&3)& WR PDQDJH DQG FRQVHUYH WKH UHJLRQ·V RFHDQLF
ÀVKHULHVUHVRXUFHV
0HPEHUVRI))$31$DQG790$YLLFRRSHUDWHWRFRQWUROFDWFKDQGHIIRUWZLWKLQWKH
:&32 WR PDLQWDLQ VWRFNV RI VNLSMDFN \HOORZÀQ ELJH\H DQG 6RXWK 3DFLÀF DOEDFRUH
WXQD DW OHYHOV WKDW HQVXUH FRQVHUYDWLRQ RI WKHVH YDOXDEOH UHVRXUFHV DV ZHOO DV
VXVWDLQDEOHHFRQRPLFEHQHÀWV([DPSOHVRIPDQDJHPHQWPHDVXUHVLPSOHPHQWHGE\
31$DQGVXSSRUWHGE\))$DQG:&3)&WRDGGUHVVUHFHQWRYHUÀVKLQJRIELJH\HWXQD
DUHSURYLGHGLQ&KDSWHUVDQG2WKHUPHDVXUHVKDYHEHHQVXJJHVWHGWRLPSURYH
ERWKHFRQRPLFEHQHÀWVDQGORQJWHUPFRQVHUYDWLRQ
7KH PDQDJHPHQW DUUDQJHPHQWV DUH XQGHUSLQQHG E\ UHJXODU LQGHSWK VWRFN
DVVHVVPHQWVIRUDOOIRXUVSHFLHVRIWXQD&KDSWHU7KHVHVWRFNDVVHVVPHQWVLQYROYH
H[WHQVLYHFROOHFWLRQRIGDWDRQFDWFKDQGÀVKLQJHIIRUWVDPSOLQJRIFDWFKHVELRORJLFDO
LY ZZZSQDWXQDFRP
Y ZZZZFSIFLQWNH\GRFXPHQWVFRQYHQWLRQWH[W
YL ZZZZFSIFLQW
YLL 6HH &KDSWHU IRU WKH PHPEHUV RI ))$ :&3)& DQG 31$ 7KH PHPEHUV RI 790$ DUH &RRN
,VODQGV1HZ=HDODQG1LXH6DPRD7RNHODXDQG7RQJD
807
UHVHDUFKDQGWDJJLQJVWXGLHVE\WKH2FHDQLF)LVKHULHV3URJUDPPHDWWKH6HFUHWDULDW
RIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\YLLL5HVHDUFKLVDOVRXQGHUZD\RQWKHRSHQRFHDQIRRGZHEV
WKDW VXSSRUW WXQD &KDSWHU DQG WKH HIIHFWV RI LQGXVWULDO WXQD ÀVKHULHV RQ WKH
E\FDWFKRIRWKHUODUJHSHODJLFÀVK7KHFRVWVRIWKLVUHVHDUFKDUHMXVWLÀHGE\WKH
VLJQLÀFDQFHDQGYDOXHRIWXQDFDWFKHVLQWKH:&32ZKLFKWRWDOOHGaPLOOLRQWRQQHV
LQZRUWK!86'ELOOLRQ&KDSWHUVDQG
7DEOH7KHPDLQPHDVXUHVGHYHORSHGDQGLPSOHPHQWHGE\WKH3DFLÀF,VODQGV)RUXP
)LVKHULHV$JHQF\WRPDQDJHWXQDÀVKHULHVIRULWVPHPEHUFRXQWULHV
Measure
Key features
National tuna fishery
development plans
Promotes sustainable national tuna fisheries, using the ecosystembased approach to fisheries management16,118,119.
Nauru Agreement
Specifies terms and conditions for tuna purse-seine fishing licences in
the region. The agreement has various implementing arrangements,
including the FSM Arrangement and Palau Arrangement.
FSM Arrangement*
Provides for preferential access by vessels sponsored by the Parties of
the Nauru Agreement (PNA) to each others’ EEZs120.
Palau Arrangement*
Provides a suite of measures for cooperative management of the purseseine and longline fisheries in the EEZs of PNA members, including
the vessel day scheme (VDS), as well as agreed policies on licensing
conditions, crewing and the operation of vessel monitoring schemes
and observer programmes63.
US Treaty
A multilateral fisheries access agreement between FFA members and
the USA, which provides fishing opportunities for up to 40 US-flagged
purse-seine vessels (and up to an additional five vessels under joint
venture arrangements) in the treaty area, in return for funding.
Monitoring, Control
and Surveillance
Agreed policies for the detection and deterrence of illegal, unregulated
and unreported fishing. The tools include the Pacific Islands Regional
Fishery Observer Programme, the Regional Vessel Monitoring System,
the Regional Register of Fishing Vessels and the Niue Treaty for
cooperation in fisheries surveillance and information sharing121,122.
0HDVXUHVQRZWUDQVIHUUHGWR31$
13.2.2 Coastal fisheries
&RDVWDOÀVKHULHVLQWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀFGLIIHUIXQGDPHQWDOO\IURPWKHLQGXVWULDOWXQD
ÀVKHULHVLQDWOHDVWWZRZD\V)LUVWWKH\DUHEDVHGRQKXQGUHGVRIVSHFLHVRIGHPHUVDO
ÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHV&KDSWHUYHU\IHZRIZKLFK\LHOGVXIÀFLHQWHFRQRPLFDQG
VRFLDO EHQHÀWV WR MXVWLI\ WKH W\SH RI VWRFN DVVHVVPHQWV PDGH IRU WXQD 6HFRQG VHOI
UHSOHQLVKLQJSRSXODWLRQVRIPRVWFRDVWDOVSHFLHVDUHUHVWULFWHGWRLQGLYLGXDO3,&7V
RUHYHQVPDOOHUVSDWLDOVFDOHV&KDSWHU)RUWKLVUHDVRQVWRFNVRIFRDVWDOÀVKDQG
LQYHUWHEUDWHVGRQRWRIWHQUHSUHVHQWWUDQVERXQGDU\UHVRXUFHVDOWKRXJKVRPHVWRFNV
DUH OLNHO\ WR EH VKDUHG IRU H[DPSOH EHWZHHQ 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV 31* DQG
$XVWUDOLD DQG $PHULFDQ 6DPRD DQG 6DPRD 7KHVH IHDWXUHV RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV
FRPELQHGZLWKWKHOLPLWHGVFLHQWLÀFFDSDFLW\LQWKHQDWLRQDODJHQFLHVRIPRVW3,&7V
KDYHUHVXOWHGLQPXFKXQFHUWDLQW\DERXWWKHVXVWDLQDEOHKDUYHVWOHYHOVDQGVWDWXVRI
FRDVWDOÀVKHULHV&KDSWHU
YLLLZZZVSFLQWRFHDQÀVK
808
CHAPTER 13
7KH H[FHSWLRQV DUH WKH HDVLO\DFFHVVLEOH VHGHQWDU\ LQYHUWHEUDWHV VXFK DV VHD
FXFXPEHUVDQGWURFKXVWKDWDUHKDUYHVWHGIURPVKDOORZZDWHUDQGWDUJHWHGIRUH[SRUW
FRPPRGLWLHV DQG WKH FRPSRQHQW RI WKH QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVKHU\ FRPSULVLQJ
VNLSMDFNDQG\HOORZÀQWXQDFDXJKWE\VXEVLVWHQFHDQGVPDOOVFDOHFRPPHUFLDOÀVKHUV
&KDSWHU'UDPDWLFGHFOLQHVLQH[SRUWVRIVHDFXFXPEHUVDQGWURFKXVVKRZWKDWWKHVH
YDOXDEOHUHVRXUFHVKDYHEHHQFKURQLFDOO\RYHUÀVKHGLQPDQ\3,&7V²&KDSWHU
7KH UHDVRQDEO\ JRRG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVK FRPSRQHQW RI
FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV FRPSULVHG RI WXQD VWHPV IURP WKH VWURQJ RYHUODS EHWZHHQ FRDVWDO
DQGLQGXVWULDOÀVKHULHVLQWKHUHJLRQ,QYHVWPHQWVLQTXDQWLWDWLYHVWRFNDVVHVVPHQWV
IRUWXQDKDYHSURGXFHGJRRGHVWLPDWHVRIWKHVWDWXVRIWKHVHVSHFLHV&KDSWHU
$JDLQVW WKLV EDFNGURS LW LV XQOLNHO\ WKDW 3,&7V ZLOO GHYHORS DQG LPSOHPHQW
FRQYHQWLRQDOVWRFNDVVHVVPHQWVIRUPDQ\VSHFLHVRIGHPHUVDOÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHV
$UJXDEO\DQ\DWWHPSWWRGRVRZRXOGQRWEHFRVWHIIHFWLYHEHFDXVHVXFKDSSURDFKHV
ZRXOGQRWPDNHWKHEHVWXVHRIWKHVRFLDOFDSLWDODQGQDWXUDOKLVWRU\NQRZOHGJHRI
FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV $OWHUQDWLYH ZD\V RI DVVHVVLQJ WKH VWDWXV RI ÀVKHULHV LQ GDWD
SRRUVLWXDWLRQVH[LVW3DFLÀF,VODQGFRXQWULHVDQGWHUULWRULHVKDYHDORQJWUDGLWLRQ
RI FRPPXQLW\EDVHG DSSURDFKHV WR ÀVKHU\ PDQDJHPHQW DQG VWUHQJWKHQLQJ WKLV
DSSURDFK LV EURDGO\ VHHQ DV RIIHULQJ WKH EHVW KRSH RI VHFXULQJ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV
UHVRXUFHV IRU WKH IXWXUH ,Q PXFK RI 0HODQHVLD FRPPXQLW\EDVHG DSSURDFKHV
WR ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW DUH DOVR IDYRXUHG E\ ORQJVWDQGLQJ FXVWRPDU\ PDULQH
WHQXUH²ZKLFKKHOSVWRHQVXUHWKDWEHQHÀWVDFFUXHGLUHFWO\WRFRPPXQLWLHV
7KHVHDUFKIRULQQRYDWLRQXQGHUWKHEURDGXPEUHOODRIFRPPXQLW\EDVHGPDQDJHPHQW
LV OLNHO\ WR UHPDLQ D FULWLFDO IURQWLHU IRU FRPPXQLWLHV QDWLRQDO DJHQFLHV UHJLRQDO
RUJDQLVDWLRQV DQG QRQJRYHUQPHQWDO RUJDQLVDWLRQV 1*2V² &RQIURQWLQJ
KDELWDW GHJUDGDWLRQ FDXVHG E\ DJULFXOWXUH IRUHVWU\ ORJJLQJ DQG PLQLQJ DFWLYLWLHV
LQ FDWFKPHQWV &KDSWHUV ² DQG RYHUÀVKLQJ GXH WR SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG RWKHU
HFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDOGULYHUV²&KDSWHUSUHVHQWWKHWZRJUHDWHVWFKDOOHQJHV
0DQ\ 3,&7V QHHG WR SURGXFH PRUH ÀVK IURP WKHLU FRDVWDO ZDWHUV IRU QDWLRQDO IRRG
VHFXULW\&KDSWHU+RZHYHUPDQDJHPHQWWKDWDLPVWRDYRLGIXUWKHUGHSOHWLRQRI
RYHUÀVKHGVWRFNVLVOLNHO\WREHPRUHDSSURSULDWHLQWKHVKRUWWHUPWKDQPDQDJHPHQW
DLPHGDWPD[LPLVLQJVXVWDLQDEOHSURGXFWLRQ8VLQJ¶SULPDU\·ÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWL[
WR OLPLW FDWFKHV WR DYRLG LUUHYHUVLEOH GDPDJH WR VWRFNV LQ WKH IDFH RI XQFHUWDLQW\
DQG LQYHVWLQJ LQ WKH VRFLDO FDSLWDO DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV QHHGHG IRU FRPPXQLWLHV DQG
JRYHUQPHQWV WR PDQDJH FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV DUH KLJK SULRULWLHV 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ WKH
SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ FRUDO EOHDFKLQJ GXH WR JOREDO ZDUPLQJ DQG GHJUDGDWLRQ RI
FRUDOUHHIVIURPRFHDQDFLGLÀFDWLRQ&KDSWHUDUHH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHXQFHUWDLQW\
GHPDQGLQJDQHYHQPRUHSUHFDXWLRQDU\DSSURDFKDQGIXUWKHUUHGXFLQJUHVSRQVLEOH
\LHOGVIURPFRDVWDOÀVKHULHV)LJXUH
L[ 3ULPDU\ÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWUHFRJQLVHVWKHQHHGWRXVHVLPSOHKDUYHVWFRQWUROVVXFKDVVL]H
OLPLWV FORVHG VHDVRQV DQG DUHDV JHDU UHVWULFWLRQV DQG SURWHFWLRQ RI VSDZQLQJ DJJUHJDWLRQV
6HFRQGDU\DQGWHUWLDU\ÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWUHTXLUHJUHDWHULQYHVWPHQWVLQVWRFNDVVHVVPHQWV
WRUHGXFHXQFHUWDLQW\DERXWWKHHFRQRPLFEHQHÀWVWKDWFDQEHJDLQHGIURPPRUHDFFXUDWHDQG
SUHFLVHHVWLPDWHVRIVXVWDLQDEOHKDUYHVWV
809
Primary
Secondary
Low
Medium
Tertiary
CC
Uncertainty
7R HTXLS 3,&7V ZLWK D SUDFWLFDO ZD\ RI PDQDJLQJ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV LQ WKH IDFH RI
WKH PDQ\ GULYHUV LQÁXHQFLQJ WKH VHFWRU D ¶FRPPXQLW\EDVHG HFRV\VWHP DSSURDFK
WR ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW· &($)0 LV EHLQJ GHYHORSHG IRU WKH UHJLRQ &($)0
PHUJHVWKHZHOOUHFRJQLVHGQHHGIRUDQHFRV\VWHPDSSURDFKDQGSULPDU\ÀVKHULHV
PDQDJHPHQW EDVHG RQ FRPDQDJHPHQW WKURXJK VWURQJ FRPPXQLW\ LQYROYHPHQW
,PSOHPHQWLQJ &($)0 UHTXLUHV D OHJDO IUDPHZRUN DQG WKH LQYROYHPHQW RI PDQ\
VWDNHKROGHUV WR VXSSRUW FRPPXQLWLHV DQG QDWLRQDO DJHQFLHV SDUWLFXODUO\ UHJLRQDO
ÀVKHULHVDQGHQYLURQPHQWDORUJDQLVDWLRQVDQG1*2V
High
)LJXUH *HQHUDO UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SRWHQWLDO EHQHÀWV IURP ÀVKHULHV IRU FRDVWDO
GHPHUVDO ÀVK VSHFLHV DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV JUHHQ OLQH DQG XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ LQIRUPDWLRQ
IRU PDQDJHPHQW EOXH OLQH DV IXQFWLRQV RI FRVWV IRU SULPDU\ VHFRQGDU\ DQG WHUWLDU\
ÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWVRXUFH&RFKUDQHHWDOVHHDOVRIRRWQRWHRQSDJH7KH
UHGXFWLRQ LQ EHQHÀWV XQGHU SULPDU\ ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW DV D UHVXOW RI WKH LQFUHDVHG
XQFHUWDLQW\FDXVHGE\FOLPDWHFKDQJH&&LVLQGLFDWHGE\WKHRUDQJHVKDGLQJ
13.2.3 Freshwater and estuarine fisheries
7KH IUHVKZDWHU DQG HVWXDULQH ÀVKHULHV RI WKH WURSLFDO 3DFLÀF DUH VWLOO SRRUO\
XQGHUVWRRG &KDSWHU DQG UHFHLYH OLWWOH RU QR DWWHQWLRQ IURP QDWLRQDO ÀVKHULHV
GHSDUWPHQWVDQGUHJLRQDORUJDQLVDWLRQV3ULPDU\ÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWLPSOHPHQWHG
WKURXJK&($)0DORQJWKHOLQHVGHVFULEHGDERYHIRUFRDVWDOÀVKHULHVLVDOVRQHHGHG
WR PDLQWDLQ WKH EHQHÀWV RI WKHVH ÀVKHULHV IRU FRPPXQLWLHV OLYLQJ EHVLGH ULYHUV DQG
ODNHV PDLQO\ LQ 0HODQHVLD DQG SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ 3DSXD 1HZ *XLQHD 31* %XW WKH
FKDOOHQJH LV EURDGHU WKDQ WKDW ² EHVW SUDFWLFH LV UHTXLUHG IURP DJULFXOWXUH IRUHVWU\
DQG PLQLQJ RSHUDWLRQV LQ FDWFKPHQWV WR DYRLG GHJUDGLQJ IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK KDELWDWV
WKURXJK DGGLWLRQDO VHGLPHQWDWLRQ H[FHVVLYH QXWULHQWV DQG SROOXWLRQ E\ WR[LF
FKHPLFDOV&KDSWHU
0DQDJHPHQW RI IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV LQ 31* PXVW DOVR DGGUHVV WKH ULVN RI IXUWKHU
LQYDVLYH ÀVK VSHFLHV 7KH IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK IDXQD LQ 31* DOUHDG\ LQFOXGHV D KLJK
SURSRUWLRQ RI LQWURGXFHG DQG LQYDVLYH VSHFLHV :KLOH PDQ\ EXW QRW DOO RI WKH
810
CHAPTER 13
LQWURGXFHG VSHFLHV DUH YDOXHG DV IRRG RWKHU XQZDQWHG LQYDVLYH VSHFLHV DUH
UHGXFLQJWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIQDWLYHÀVKVSHFLHVDQGWKHSUHIHUUHGLQWURGXFHGVSHFLHV
&KDSWHU
,Q FRQWUDVW WR GHPHUVDO FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV VRPH IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV DUH OLNHO\ WR EH
HQKDQFHGE\FOLPDWHFKDQJH&KDSWHU3URMHFWHGLQFUHDVHVLQUDLQIDOOLQWKHWURSLFV
&KDSWHULQSDUWLFXODUDUHH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHWKHDUHDDQGLQXQGDWLRQIUHTXHQF\
RI ÁRRGSODLQ KDELWDWV &KDSWHU ,QYHVWPHQWV LQ SULPDU\ ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW
LQ IUHVKZDWHU DQG HVWXDULQH HFRV\VWHPV DUH H[SHFWHG WKHUHIRUH WR EH RSHUDWLQJ
XQGHUFRQGLWLRQV PRUH IDYRXUDEOHWRÀVKHULHVSURGXFWLRQSURYLGHGFDWFKPHQWVDUH
PDQDJHGDSSURSULDWHO\$VWKHDUHDVDYDLODEOHIRUFDWFKLQJIUHVKZDWHUDQGHVWXDULQH
ÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHVH[SDQGLWZLOOEHLPSRUWDQWWRPDLQWDLQWUDGLWLRQDODFFHVVDQG
RZQHUVKLSULJKWVHVSHFLDOO\LIWKHRZQHUVKLSRIERDWVDQGÀVKLQJHTXLSPHQWE\WKH
JURZLQJSRSXODWLRQVLQ0HODQHVLDLQFUHDVHV
13.2.4 Aquaculture
3HDUODQGSHQDHLGVKULPSIDUPLQJDUHQRZPDWXUHLQGXVWULHV&KDSWHULQVRPH
3,&76 ZLWK SULYDWH VHFWRU HQWHUSULVHV PDQDJHG XQGHU JRYHUQPHQW UHJXODWLRQV
SURGXFLQJ KLJKTXDOLW\ H[SRUWV 7KH GLYHUVH UDQJH RI H[SORUDWRU\ DQG HPHUJLQJ
DTXDFXOWXUH DFWLYLWLHV SURGXFLQJ FRPPRGLWLHV IRU IRRG VHFXULW\ DQG OLYHOLKRRGV LQ
PDQ\ RWKHU SDUWV RI WKH UHJLRQ &KDSWHU DUH JHQHUDOO\ RSHUDWLQJ XQGHU PXFK
ORRVHUPDQDJHPHQWIUDPHZRUNV
$VH[LVWLQJDFWLYLWLHVGHYHORSDQGRWKHUHFRQRPLFDOO\YLDEOHSURVSHFWVIRUDTXDFXOWXUH
DUHLGHQWLÀHGZKLFKLVDOUHDG\RFFXUULQJXQGHUWKHUHJLRQDODTXDFXOWXUHDFWLRQSODQ
DQGDVHULHVRIQDWLRQDODTXDFXOWXUHSODQV&KDSWHU3,&7VZLOOQHHGWRGHYHORS
QDWLRQDO OHJLVODWLRQ WR HQFRXUDJH LQYHVWPHQW LQFOXGLQJ OLFHQVLQJ DUUDQJHPHQWV
JXDUDQWHHG DFFHVV WR VXLWDEOH VLWHV DQG VXSSRUW IRU SLORW FRPPHUFLDO SURMHFWV
LPSOHPHQWJOREDOVWDQGDUGVIRUDTXDWLFDQLPDOKHDOWKDQGELRVHFXULW\²VHW
TXDOLW\ VWDQGDUGV IRU SURGXFWV IDFLOLWDWH WUDLQLQJ LQ WKH WHFKQLFDO DQG EXVLQHVV
VNLOOV QHHGHG WR RSHUDWH DTXDFXOWXUH HQWHUSULVHV HIÀFLHQWO\ DQG SURPRWH DQ\
FRPSHWLWLYHDGYDQWDJHVWKH\PD\KDYHIRUDTXDFXOWXUH
7KHVH PHDVXUHV DUH QHHGHG WR FUHDWH DSSURSULDWH LQFHQWLYHV DQG VHFXULW\ IRU WKH
SULYDWH VHFWRU WR HVWDEOLVK VXEVWDQWLDO HQWHUSULVHV 7KH\ DUH DOVR QHHGHG WR FUHDWH
WKH ODUJH FRPPHUFLDO RSHUDWLRQV WKDW ZLOO EH ¶YHKLFOHV· IRU GHOLYHULQJ EHQHÀWV WR
VPDOOKROGHUVWKHUHE\DVVLVWLQJ3,&7VWRPHHWWKHLUDVSLUDWLRQVIRUWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHV
FUHDWHGE\DTXDFXOWXUHWRÁRZWRFRPPXQLWLHV7KXVZKHUHYHUDSSURSULDWHOLFHQVLQJ
FRQGLWLRQVIRUODUJHHQWHUSULVHVQHHGWRHQDEOHDVLJQLÀFDQWSURSRUWLRQRISURGXFWLRQ
HJ VSDW FROOHFWLRQ DQG RQJURZLQJ FRPPRGLWLHV WR PDUNHW VL]H WR EH RXWVRXUFHG
WR VPDOOKROGHUV 7KH PDLQ HQWHUSULVH ZRXOG IRFXV RQ RYHUVHHLQJ TXDOLW\ FRQWURO
DQGSURYLGLQJHFRQRPLHVRIVFDOHIRUDFFHVVWRIDUPLQSXWVQHHGHGE\VPDOOKROGHUV
6LPLODU PRGHOV KDYH EHHQ XVHG VXFFHVVIXOO\ WR HVWDEOLVK SODQWDWLRQ DJULFXOWXUH DQG
WKHSURGXFWLRQRIFKLFNHQVDQGHJJVLQWKHUHJLRQ
811
13.2.5 A human rights approach
7KHFRPPXQLW\EDVHGPDQDJHPHQWDSSURDFKHVRXWOLQHGLQ6HFWLRQVDQG
ZLOO EH SDUWLFXODUO\ HIIHFWLYH ZKHQ ÀVKLQJ ULJKWV FORVHO\ VXSSRUW VRFLDO HFRQRPLF
DQG KXPDQ ULJKWV 8QGHU VXFK FLUFXPVWDQFHV VPDOOVFDOH FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU
ÀVKHULHVFDQPDNHDFULWLFDOGLIIHUHQFHWRIRRGVHFXULW\DQGWKHEURDGHUDVSLUDWLRQVRI
FRPPXQLWLHVIRUZHOOEHLQJDQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFVXFFHVV3HRSOHHQJDJHGLQÀVKLQJ
ZKRDUHPRUHVHFXUHDQGOHVVYXOQHUDEOHFDQDOVREHH[SHFWHGWREHPRUHHIIHFWLYH
DQGPRWLYDWHGSDUWLFLSDQWVLQWKHFRPDQDJHPHQWRIUHVRXUFHV,QVKRUWWUHDWLQJWKH
JRYHUQDQFHRIVPDOOVFDOHÀVKHULHVLQWKHUHJLRQDVDQDVSHFWRIJHQHUDOKXPDQULJKWV
ZLOO HQFRXUDJH VXVWDLQDEOH XVH RI UHVRXUFHV DQG KHOS DFKLHYH KXPDQ GHYHORSPHQW
JRDOV
7KH VHFXULW\ DQG ZHOOEHLQJ RI FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKLQJ FRPPXQLWLHV LV
EHVW LPSURYHG E\ VRFLDO DQG SROLWLFDO GHYHORSPHQW WKDW LQYRNHV WKH H[LVWLQJ
ODZV VXSSRUWLQJ WKH 8QLYHUVDO 'HFODUDWLRQ RI +XPDQ 5LJKWV ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH
PDQDJHPHQW RI ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH LQ WKH UHJLRQ VKRXOG VHFXUH ULJKWV WR
FDWFK SURFHVV DQG VHOO ÀVK IRU D EURDG VSHFWUXP RI SHRSOH IURP UXUDO DQG XUEDQ
FRPPXQLWLHV DQG SURYLGH RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU HTXLWDEOH SDUWLFLSDWLRQ RI ZRPHQ
FKLOGUHQDQGRWKHUYXOQHUDEOHJURXSVLQSURGXFWLRQDQGPDUNHWFKDLQVLQZD\VWKDW
UHPRYHFXVWRPDU\DQGVRFLDOLQKLELWLRQVLHULJKWVQHHGWREHVHFXUHGIRUWKHULJKW
SHRSOH$FKLHYLQJWKHVHJRDOVZLOOUHTXLUHJHQGHUDVVHVVPHQWVDQGDQDO\VLV
13.3 A framework for selecting adaptations
7KH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI RFHDQLF FRDVWDO DQG
IUHVKZDWHUÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUH&KDSWHUV²DUHQRWWKHRQO\OLNHO\LQÁXHQFHV
RQWKHIXWXUHRIWKHVHFWRU3RSXODWLRQJURZWKDQGXUEDQLVDWLRQSDWWHUQVRIHFRQRPLF
GHYHORSPHQWVWDWXVRIÀVKHULHVUHVRXUFHVLQRWKHURFHDQVJRYHUQDQFHDQGSROLWLFDO
VWDELOLW\PDUNHWVDQGWUDGHIXHOFRVWVWHFKQRORJLFDOLQQRYDWLRQDQGIRUHLJQDLGFDQ
DOOEHH[SHFWHGWRLQÁXHQFHÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHLQWKHUHJLRQ3RSXODWLRQ
JURZWK DQG XUEDQLVDWLRQ DUH H[SHFWHG WR EH SDUWLFXODUO\ VLJQLÀFDQW HVSHFLDOO\ LQ
0HODQHVLD&KDSWHUVDQG
%HFDXVH PRVWRIWKHVHIDFWRUVKDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOWRDIIHFWÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUH
EHIRUH WKH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH EHFRPH OLPLWLQJ D IUDPHZRUN
LV QHHGHG IRU SODQQHG DGDSWDWLRQV WKDW DGGUHVVHV WKH RWKHU GULYHUV LQ WKH QHDU
WHUP DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH LQ WKH ORQJHU WHUP &OHDUO\ WKH EHVW LQYHVWPHQWV DUH
WKRVH WKDW GHOLYHU VKRUWWHUP DQG ORQJWHUP EHQHÀWV ZLQZLQ
DGDSWDWLRQV
)LJXUH $GDSWLQJ WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH ZLOO DOVR LQYROYH VRPH ORVHZLQ
DGDSWDWLRQV ² ZKHUH WKH HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO FRVWV H[FHHG WKH EHQHÀWV LQ WKH QHDU
WHUPEXWZKHUHLQYHVWPHQWVSRVLWLRQ3,&7VWRUHFHLYHQHWEHQHÀWVLQWKHORQJHUWHUP
XQGHUDFKDQJLQJFOLPDWH¶:LQORVH·LQYHVWPHQWVUHSUHVHQWPDODGDSWDWLRQWRFOLPDWH
FKDQJHDQGVKRXOGEHDYRLGHGH[FHSWLQH[WUHPHFDVHVZKHUHKXPDQVXUYLYDOPD\
RWKHUZLVHEHFRPSURPLVHG
812
CHAPTER 13
)LJXUH 'HFLVLRQ IUDPHZRUN IRU LGHQWLI\LQJ DGDSWDWLRQV WR DGGUHVV FOLPDWH FKDQJH
DQGRWKHUGULYHUVVRXUFH*UDIWRQ
,GHQWLÀFDWLRQ RI ZLQZLQ DQG ORVHZLQ DGDSWDWLRQV VKRXOG QRW EH EDVHG VLPSO\
RQ WKH DYDLODELOLW\ RI WHFKQRORJ\ DQG SURMHFWHG IXWXUH UHVSRQVHV RI WKH UHVRXUFHV
XQGHUSLQQLQJ ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH 7KHUH DUH SRWHQWLDO VRFLDO EDUULHUV WR WKH
XSWDNHRIDSSURSULDWHWHFKQRORJ\([DPSOHVRIVXFKEDUULHUVLQFOXGHWKHFXOWXUDO
QRUPVDQGJHQGHULVVXHVWKDWPD\OLPLWEURDGEDVHGFRPPXQLW\SDUWLFLSDWLRQ7KH
SUREDELOLW\ RI UHPRYLQJ WKHVH EDUULHUV WR SURYLGH FRPPXQLWLHV ZLWK D ZLGHU UDQJH
RIVWUDWHJLHVWRDGDSWWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHPXVWDOVREHDVVHVVHGZKHQHYDOXDWLQJWKH
OLNHO\VXFFHVVRISURSRVHGDGDSWDWLRQV
8OWLPDWHO\ SURVSHFWLYH DGDSWDWLRQV ZLWKLQ WKH GHFLVLRQ IUDPHZRUN VKRXOG EH
DVVHVVHGXVLQJIRUPDOFRVWEHQHÀWDQDO\VLVEDVHGRQWKHEHVWDYDLODEOHLQIRUPDWLRQ
DQGHFRQRPLFPRGHOOLQJWRGHWHUPLQHWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKLQWHUYHQWLRQVZLOOUHGXFH
WKUHDWV IURP VKRUWWHUP DQG ORQJWHUP GULYHUV DQG HIIHFWLYHO\ FDSLWDOLVH RQ WKH
RSSRUWXQLWLHV6XFKDQDO\VLVLVDOVRQHHGHGWRDVVHVVWKHRSSRUWXQLW\FRVWVRIYDULRXV
DGDSWDWLRQV
,Q WKH VHFWLRQ EHORZ ZH RXWOLQH WKH PDLQ SURVSHFWLYH ZLQZLQ DQG ORVHZLQ
DGDSWDWLRQV LQ WKH H[SHFWDWLRQ WKDW 3,&7V DQG WKHLU GHYHORSPHQW SDUWQHUV ZLOO
XQGHUWDNH WKH FRVWEHQHÀW DQDO\VLV QHHGHG WR FRQÀUP WKHLU VXLWDELOLW\ :H DOVR
VXJJHVWSROLFLHVWRVXSSRUWWKHVHDGDSWDWLRQV
13.4 Recommended adaptations and suggested supporting policies
7KH DGDSWDWLRQV DQG SROLFLHV UHFRPPHQGHG KHUH DUH IRXQGHG RQ WKH DVVXPSWLRQV
WKDW WKH NH\ REMHFWLYHV RI QDWLRQDO DJHQFLHV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU PDQDJLQJ ÀVKHULHV
DQG DTXDFXOWXUH DUH WR PD[LPLVH VXVWDLQDEOH EHQHÀWV IRU HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW
813
JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH IRRG VHFXULW\ DQG OLYHOLKRRGV SODQQHG DGDSWDWLRQV DUH
QHHGHGWRLPSURYHWKHZD\WKDWWKH¶YHKLFOHV·ÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHDFWLYLWLHV
ZKLFK GHOLYHU WKHVH EHQHÀWV DUH PDQDJHG WR UHGXFH WKH WKUHDWV DQG KDUQHVV WKH
RSSRUWXQLWLHV H[SHFWHG WR DULVH IURP FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG WKH ÀVK KDELWDWV DQG
ÀVK VWRFNV WKDW XQGHUSLQ WKHVH EHQHÀWV DUH PDQDJHG LQ ZD\V WKDW PD[LPLVH WKHLU
FDSDFLW\IRUDXWRQRPRXVDGDSWDWLRQWRWKHHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH)LJXUH
:H DOVR DVVXPH WKDW DGDSWDWLRQV ZLOO EH GHVLJQHG DQG GHOLYHUHG LQ D ZD\ WKDW LV
DFFHSWDEOHWRWKRVHZKRPWKH\DUHLQWHQGHGWREHQHÀW6HFWLRQ7KLVLPSRUWDQW
SUHUHTXLVLWHLVH[SHFWHGWREHUHODWLYHO\HDV\WRDFKLHYHLQPDQ\FDVHVEHFDXVHWKH
WUDGLWLRQDOZD\VWKDW3DFLÀFSHRSOHXVHWRUHVSRQGWRDQGFRSHZLWKH[WUHPHHYHQWV
VXFK DV F\FORQHV DQG GURXJKWV² VKRXOG SUHGLVSRVH WKHP WR HPEUDFLQJ DQG
LPSOHPHQWLQJWKHUHFRPPHQGHGDGDSWDWLRQV+RZHYHULPSURYHPHQWVFDQEHPDGH
WR WUDGLWLRQDO ZD\V RI UHVSRQGLQJ WR H[WUHPH HYHQWV SDUWLFXODUO\ E\ LQFUHDVLQJ
WKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQRIZRPHQLQDOODVSHFWVRISODQQLQJDQGDSSO\LQJDGDSWDWLRQVDQG
HQVXULQJWKDWWKHSHRSOHOLNHO\WREHDIIHFWHGDUHLQYROYHGLQQHJRWLDWLRQVWRVHOHFW
DQGLPSOHPHQWDGDSWDWLRQVVRWKDWWKHLUULJKWVDUHUHVSHFWHG
)LJXUH5HODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKHNH\REMHFWLYHVRIÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWIRU3DFLÀF
,VODQGFRXQWULHVDQGWHUULWRULHVRUDQJHWKHUHVRXUFHVRQZKLFKWKHVHEHQHÀWVDUHEDVHG
JUHHQ WKH DFWLRQV DQG LQVWLWXWLRQDO RXWSXWV QHHGHG WR GHOLYHU WKHVH EHQHÀWV EOXH
DQG WKH FRPSRQHQWV RI WKH V\VWHP ZKHUH DXWRQRPRXV DGDSWDWLRQ FRXOG KHOS OLPLW WKH
SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG ZKHUH SODQQHG DGDSWDWLRQ VKRXOG UHGXFH WKH
WKUHDWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHWRHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWJRYHUQPHQWUHYHQXHIRRGVHFXULW\
DQGOLYHOLKRRGVDQGFDSLWDOLVHRQRSSRUWXQLWLHVWRLQFUHDVHWKHVHEHQHÀWV
814
CHAPTER 13
%HIRUH LQWURGXFLQJ WKH DGDSWDWLRQV DQG VXJJHVWHG SROLFLHV ZH EULHÁ\ VXPPDULVH
WKHLPSOLFDWLRQVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHIRUWKHSURGXFWLYLW\RIÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUH
&KDSWHU ZKLFK WKHVH DGDSWDWLRQV DQG SROLFLHV DUH LQWHQGHG WR DGGUHVV 7KH
DGDSWDWLRQV DQG VXJJHVWHG SROLFLHV IRU HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW DQG JRYHUQPHQW
UHYHQXHIRRGVHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGVDUHSUHVHQWHGVHSDUDWHO\
13.4.1 Adaptations for economic development and government
revenue (E)
7KH SURMHFWHG HDVWZDUG VKLIW LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI VNLSMDFN WXQD &KDSWHU DQG
XOWLPDWHO\ ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW LV H[SHFWHG WR KDYH WZR LPSRUWDQW LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU JURVV
GRPHVWLF SURGXFW *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH )LUVW LW VKRXOG LQFUHDVH WKH
FRQWULEXWLRQRIOLFHQFHIHHVIURP':)1VWRWKRVH3,&7VLQWKHFHQWUDO3DFLÀF.LULEDWL
1DXUX7RNHODXDQG7XYDOXWKDWDOUHDG\UHO\KHDYLO\RQWKHVHIHHVIRUJRYHUQPHQW
UHYHQXH /DUJHU FDWFKHV RI WXQD IXUWKHU HDVW VKRXOG DOVR LQFUHDVH WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ
RI ÀVKLQJ WR *'3 LQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD DQG 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV DQG SHUKDSV FUHDWH
QHZ RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW LQ 3RO\QHVLD &KDSWHU 6HFRQG LW
FRXOG DIIHFW SODQV WR H[SDQG QDWLRQDO LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV
WR LQFUHDVH EHQHÀWV IURP WXQD UHVRXUFHV LQ VRPH 3,&7V LQ WKH ZHVWHUQ SDUW RI WKH
UHJLRQSDUWLFXODUO\31*DQG6RORPRQ,VODQGV+RZHYHUZKLOHSRWHQWLDOGHFUHDVHVLQ
FRQWULEXWLRQVRIÀVKLQJDQGSURFHVVLQJRSHUDWLRQVWR*'3DQGJRYHUQPHQWUHYHQXH
IURP OLFHQFH IHHV PD\ RFFXU IRU FRXQWULHV LQ WKH ZHVW WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV VKRXOG QRW
EHSURIRXQGLQ31*GXHWRWKHUHODWLYHO\ODUJHVL]HRILWVHFRQRP\&KDSWHU7KH
HIIHFWV DUH H[SHFWHG WR EH JUHDWHU LQ 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV ZKHUH LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ DQG
SURFHVVLQJSUHVHQWO\FRQWULEXWHVaWR*'3DQGZKHUHPRUHFDQQHULHVDUHSODQQHG
&KDSWHU
7KH DGDSWDWLRQV DQG VXJJHVWHG SROLFLHV WR PD[LPLVH WKH HFRQRPLF EHQHÀWV IURP
RFHDQLF ÀVKHULHV IRU 3,&7V LQ WKH FHQWUDO DQG HDVWHUQ 3DFLÀF DQG WR PLQLPLVH
WKH LPSDFWV IRU 3,&7V LQ WKH ZHVW DUH RXWOLQHG EHORZ 7KHVH DGDSWDWLRQV LQYROYH
GHYHORSPHQW RI ÁH[LEOH PDQDJHPHQW PHDVXUHV WR DOORZ ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW WR VKLIW
HDVWZKLOHHQVXULQJWKDWODUJHTXDQWLWLHVRIWXQDFDQVWLOOEHFKDQQHOOHGWKURXJKWKH
HVWDEOLVKHGDQGSURSRVHGFDQQHULHVLQWKHZHVWDQGRSWLPLVLQJWKHSURGXFWLYLW\
RIWXQDUHVRXUFHVDFURVVWKHUHJLRQ
¾ $GDSWLRQ ( )XOO LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI VXVWDLQDEOH ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW VFKHPHV
ZLQZLQ
7KH YHVVHO GD\ VFKHPH IRU WKH SXUVHVHLQH ÀVKHU\ ZKLFK DOORFDWHV ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW
DPRQJ WKH ((=V RI WKH HLJKW 31$ FRXQWULHV EDVHG RQ DJUHHG FULWHULD SURYLGHV
DQ LPSRUWDQW PHDQV RI DFFRPPRGDWLQJ WKH HIIHFWV RI (O 1LxR6RXWKHUQ 2VFLOODWLRQ
(162 HYHQWV RQ UHGLVWULEXWLRQ RI WXQD QRZ DQG LQ WKH IXWXUH 7KH 9'6 IRU HDFK
815
ÀVKHU\LVLQWHQGHGWRKROGWRWDOÀVKLQJHIIRUWIRU31$PHPEHUVFRQVWDQW\HWDOORZ
WKHPWRWUDGHÀVKLQJGD\VZKHQWKHÀVKDUHFRQFHQWUDWHGHLWKHULQWKHZHVWRUHDVW
GXHWR(162HYHQWV7KH9'6LVGHVLJQHGWRRSHUDWHLQDVLPLODUZD\WRWKH¶FDSDQG
WUDGH·V\VWHPVSURSRVHGWROLPLWHPLVVLRQVRIFDUERQGLR[LGH&2DQGHQVXUHVWKDW
DOO31$PHPEHUVFRQWLQXHWRUHFHLYHVRPHOHYHORIEHQHÀWVUHJDUGOHVVRIZKHUHWXQD
DUHFRQFHQWUDWHG)RUWKH9'6WRZRUNHIÀFLHQWO\KRZHYHU31$FRXQWULHVZLOOQHHG
WRGHYHORSWKHFDSDFLW\DQGJRYHUQDQFHWRHQVXUHWKDWÀVKLQJHIIRUWFRQIRUPVWRWKH
VSHFLÀHGOHYHOV$OORFDWLRQRIHIIRUWDPRQJPHPEHUVZLOODOVRQHHGWREHDGMXVWHG
SHULRGLFDOO\DVSURYLGHGIRUXQGHUWKH9'6DVWXQDVWRFNVPRYHSURJUHVVLYHO\HDVW
3HULRGLF DGMXVWPHQW ZLOO VWLOO DOORZ WKH WUDQVIHU RI HIIRUW GXULQJ (162 HYHQWV ZHOO
LQWRWKHIXWXUHEXWDYRLGWKHQHHGIRU31$PHPEHUVIXUWKHUWRWKHHDVWWRFRQWLQXDOO\
SXUFKDVHYHVVHOGD\VIURPWKRVHLQWKHZHVWEDVHGRQSUHVHQWGD\FDWFKHV
$ 9'6 LV DOVR EHLQJ GHYHORSHG E\ 31$ IRU WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\ EXW LV OLNHO\ WR EH
PRUH FKDOOHQJLQJ WR LPSOHPHQW EHFDXVH RI WKH ODUJHU QXPEHU RI YHVVHOV LQYROYHG
WKHGLIÀFXOWLHVLQSURYLGLQJREVHUYHUVIRUYHVVHOVDQGWKHORZHUYDOXHRIWKHÀVKHU\
7KH VXVWDLQDEOH ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW VFKHPH IRU DOEDFRUH DQG RWKHU VSHFLHV RI WXQD EHLQJ
GHYHORSHGE\PHPEHUVRIWKH7H9DND0RDQD$UUDQJHPHQWLQVRXWKHUQVXEWURSLFDO
ZDWHUVVKRXOGDOVREHDSUDFWLFDOZD\RIDGDSWLQJWRDQ\FKDQJHVLQWKHGLVWULEXWLRQV
RIWKHVHVSHFLHV
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ('LYHUVLI\VRXUFHVRIÀVKIRUFDQQHULHVZLQZLQ
7KH ,QWHULP (FRQRPLF 3DUWQHUVKLS $JUHHPHQWV ,(3$ EHWZHHQ 31* DQG WKH
(XURSHDQ 8QLRQ (8 DQG )LML DQG WKH (8 DVVLVW WKHVH 3,&7V WR GHYHORS WKHLU ÀVK
SURFHVVLQJRSHUDWLRQVLQWKHQHDUWHUPE\SDYLQJWKHZD\IRUH[SRUWVWR(XURSHLQ
WKHIDFHRIVWURQJFRPSHWLWLRQIURPFDQQHULHVLQ$VLD7KH¶JOREDOVRXUFLQJSURYLVLRQ·
RI WKH ,(3$ LV SDUWLFXODUO\ DGYDQWDJHRXV EHFDXVH LW HQDEOHV D FRXQWU\ WR DFTXLUH
DQG H[SRUW ÀVK IURP DQ\ RWKHU FRXQWU\ 2EWDLQLQJ D IXOO (FRQRPLF 3DUWQHUVKLS
$JUHHPHQW(3$IRUWKHORQJWHUPLVRIJUHDWLPSRUWDQFHWR31*VRWKDWWKHQDWLRQ
FDQVHFXUHVXSSOLHVRIÀVKIRULWVFDQQHULHVDVWXQDDUHUHGLVWULEXWHGIXUWKHUHDVW,WLV
DOVRLQWKHVWURQJLQWHUHVWRI6RORPRQ,VODQGVWRVLJQDQ,(3$ZLWKWKH(8JLYHQWKH
SODQV XQGHUZD\ WR EXLOG DGGLWLRQDO FDQQHULHV LQ WKDW FRXQWU\ 3DSXD 1HZ *XLQHD
)LML DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV VKRXOG FRQWLQXH WR WDNH DQ DFWLYH UROH LQ WKH QHJRWLDWLRQV
IRU LQWHULP DQG IXOO HFRQRPLF SDUWQHUVKLS DJUHHPHQWV WR HQVXUH WKDW WKH JOREDO
VRXUFLQJSURYLVLRQDQGRWKHUGHYHORSPHQWLQFHQWLYHVLQFOXGHGLQWKHVHDJUHHPHQWV
DUHDYDLODEOHIRUPDQ\\HDUV
$Q LPSRUWDQW SURYLVR KRZHYHU LV WKDW DQ\ 3,&7V VXSSO\LQJ ÀVK WR 31* IRU WKH
(XURSHDQ PDUNHW ZLOO QHHG WR FRPSO\ ZLWK (8 IRRG VDIHW\ UHTXLUHPHQWV E\
HVWDEOLVKLQJ D ÀVKHU\ SURGXFW IRRG VDIHW\ FRPSHWHQW DXWKRULW\ DQG WKH DVVRFLDWHG
ODERUDWRU\ WHVWLQJ IDFLOLWLHV DQG LOOHJDO XQUHSRUWHG DQG XQUHJXODWHG ,88
ÀVKLQJUHJXODWLRQVE\VHWWLQJXSDV\VWHPRIFHUWLÀFDWLRQDQGSURGXFWWUDFNLQJWR
GHPRQVWUDWHWKDWÀVKZHUHFDXJKWOHJDOO\
816
CHAPTER 13
2WKHU DGDSWDWLRQV WKDW VKRXOG KHOS PDLQWDLQ FRQWLQXLW\ LQ WKH VXSSO\ RI ÀVK IRU
FDQQHULHV LQ 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV GXULQJ (O 1LxR HSLVRGHV LQ WKH VKRUW WHUP
DQGXQGHUWKHSURMHFWHGHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQWXQDLQWKHORQJWHUPLQFOXGH
UHGXFLQJDFFHVVIRU':)1VWRWKHLU((=VWRSURYLGHPRUHÀVKIRUQDWLRQDOYHVVHOV
UHTXLULQJ':)1VRSHUDWLQJZLWKLQWKHLU((=VWRODQGDSURSRUWLRQRIFDWFKHVIRU
XVHE\ORFDOFDQQHULHVHQKDQFLQJH[LVWLQJDUUDQJHPHQWVIRUWKHLUQDWLRQDOÁHHWVWR
ÀVKLQWKH((=VRIRWKHU3,&7VDQGFUHDWLQJDQ\DGGLWLRQDOLQFHQWLYHVQHFHVVDU\
IRUWXQDFDXJKWLQRWKHU((=VWREHODQGHGLQWKHLUSRUWV7KHVHDGDSWDWLRQVZRXOG
QHHGWREHLQWHJUDWHGZLWKWKHSURYLVLRQVRIWKH9'6DQG,(3$(3$
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ(,PPHGLDWHFRQVHUYDWLRQPDQDJHPHQWPHDVXUHVIRUELJH\HWXQD
ORVHZLQ
$GGUHVVLQJ WKH FXUUHQW RYHUÀVKLQJ RI ELJH\H WXQD LQ WKH :&32 &KDSWHU E\
UHGXFLQJ ÀVKLQJ PRUWDOLW\ VKRXOG KHOS UHEXLOG WKH SRSXODWLRQ WR D OHYHO WKDW LV
H[SHFWHGWRDVVLVWWKLVVSHFLHVDGDSWWRWKHSURMHFWHGFKDQJHVWRWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀF
2FHDQ &KDSWHUV DQG 7KH EHQHÀWV RI PDQDJHPHQW PHDVXUHV WR UHGXFH ÀVKLQJ
PRUWDOLW\DUHQRWH[SHFWHGWREHIXOO\HIIHFWLYHIRU²\HDUVEHFDXVHELJH\HWXQDLV
DUHODWLYHO\ORQJOLYHGVSHFLHV!\HDUV
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ((QHUJ\HIÀFLHQF\SURJUDPPHVIRULQGXVWULDOÁHHWVZLQZLQ
(QHUJ\DXGLWVWRLGHQWLI\KRZWRUHGXFHWKHXVHRIIXHOIRUURXWLQHÀVKLQJRSHUDWLRQV
IROORZHG E\ HQHUJ\ HIÀFLHQF\ SURJUDPPHV WR LPSOHPHQW WKHVH VDYLQJV VKRXOG
LQFUHDVH WKH HFRQRPLF HIÀFLHQF\ RI ÁHHWV LQ ERWK WKH QHDU DQG ORQJ WHUP 7KHVH
LQLWLDWLYHV VKRXOG DVVLVW LQGXVWULDO ÁHHWV WR FRSH ZLWK ÁXFWXDWLRQV LQ RLO SULFHV DQG
UHGXFH WKH FRVWV IRU QDWLRQDO YHVVHOV IURP )HGHUDWHG 6WDWHV RI 0LFURQHVLD )60
31*DQG6RORPRQ,VODQGVRIÀVKLQJIXUWKHUDÀHOGDVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWXQDVKLIWV
WRWKHHDVW$OWKRXJKSXUVHVHLQHYHVVHOVXVHOHVVIXHOSHUWRQQHRIÀVKFDXJKWWKDQ
ORQJOLQHUV WKLV DGDSWDWLRQ LV VWLOO H[SHFWHG WR UHVXOW LQ VLJQLÀFDQW UHGXFWLRQV LQ
RSHUDWLQJFRVWVIRUSXUVHVHLQHUV
7R UHGXFH WKH HIIHFWV RI IXWXUH LQFUHDVHV LQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO RLO SULFHV ORFDOO\EDVHG
LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ ÁHHWV LQ 0HODQHVLD VKRXOG HYDOXDWH WKH HFRQRPLF VRFLDO DQG
HQYLURQPHQWDO EHQHÀWV RI FRFRQXW RLO DQG RWKHU ELRIXHOV WR DVFHUWDLQ ZKHWKHU WKH\
DUH D YLDEOH DOWHUQDWLYH HQHUJ\ VRXUFH 6RPH FRDVWDO VKLSSLQJ YHVVHOV LQ 31* KDYH
DOUHDG\ PDGH WKH WUDQVLWLRQ WR ORFDOO\ SURGXFHG ELRIXHOV DQG IXUWKHU XSWDNH LV
H[SHFWHGRQFHWKHOXEULFDWLRQTXDOLWLHVRIWKHVHIXHOVDUHLPSURYHG
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ((QYLURQPHQWDOO\IULHQGO\ÀVKLQJRSHUDWLRQVZLQZLQ
,GHQWLI\LQJKRZWRUHGXFHDQ\HIIHFWVRIH[LVWLQJWXQDÀVKLQJRSHUDWLRQVDQGWKRVH
SURMHFWHG WR RFFXU DV WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WXQD PRYHV WR WKH HDVW RQ QRQWDUJHW DQG
GHSHQGHQW VSHFLHV VKRXOG DVVLVW 3,&7V WR PHHW WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV RI FHUWLÀFDWLRQ
817
VFKHPHV WR SURPRWH UHVSRQVLEOH ÀVKLQJ SUDFWLFHV )LQGLQJ ZD\V WR UHGXFH &2
HPLVVLRQV IURP FRPPHUFLDO ÀVKLQJ ÁHHWV RXWOLQHG DERYH DQG FDQQHULHV WR HQVXUH
WKDWWXQDIURPWKHUHJLRQLVFRPSHWLWLYHLQFDUERQODEHOOLQJVFKHPHVDQGUHSODFH
VWHHOFDQVZLWKDOWHUQDWLYHIRUPVRISDFNDJLQJVKRXOGDOVRKHOSPDLQWDLQDFFHVVWR
PDUNHWVIRUWXQDDVJOREDOSUHVVXUHWRPLQLPLVHWKHFDUERQIRRWSULQWRIÀVKLQJDQG
SURFHVVLQJRSHUDWLRQVLQFUHDVHV
3XUVHVHLQHYHVVHO
Photo: Malo Hosken
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ(*HQGHUVHQVLWLYHÀVKSURFHVVLQJRSHUDWLRQVZLQZLQ
7KHHIÀFLHQF\DQGSURGXFWLYLW\RIH[LVWLQJDQGSODQQHGWXQDFDQQHULHVDQGORLQLQJ
SODQWVLQ31*6RORPRQ,VODQGVDQGHOVHZKHUHLQWKHUHJLRQUHO\KHDYLO\RQZRPHQ
IRU WKHLU ODERXU IRUFH (IÀFLHQF\ DQG SURGXFWLYLW\ DUH OLNHO\ WR EH LPSURYHG E\
HQVXULQJ WKDW WKH ULJKWV DQG UHVSRQVLELOLWLHV RI 3DFLÀF ZRPHQ DUH UHFRJQLVHG LQ
WKHLU HPSOR\PHQW FRQGLWLRQV DQG WKDW WKH\ KDYH WKH DSSURSULDWH WUDLQLQJ DQG
RSSRUWXQLWLHVWRXQGHUWDNHPDQDJHULDOUROHV0DQDJHPHQWWKDWLVVHQVLWLYHWRFXOWXUH
DQGJHQGHUSURYLGHVDSRWHQWLDOZLQZLQDGDSWDWLRQEHFDXVHLWVKRXOGHQKDQFHWKH
OR\DOW\RIVWDIIHYHQZKHQFOLPDWHFKDQJHLPSRVHVVWUHVVHVRQKRXVHKROGV
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ(6DIHW\DWVHDZLQZLQ
$OWKRXJK WKH ZHDWKHU IRUHFDVWV DYDLODEOH WR WXQD ÁHHWV LQ WKH UHJLRQ ZLOO FRQWLQXH
WR LPSURYH VDIHW\ DXGLWV VKRXOG EH FRQGXFWHG WR HQVXUH WKDW ORQJOLQH YHVVHOV DQG
DQ\ SXUVHVHLQH YHVVHOV RSHUDWLQJ ZLWKLQ WKH F\FORQH EHOW &KDSWHU FDQ DFKLHYH
DFFHSWDEOHVWDQGDUGVIRUVDIHW\DWVHDLQWKHHYHQWWKDWPRUHVHYHUHF\FORQHVRFFXU
7KLVDGDSWDWLRQZLOOKHOSSURWHFWÀVKLQJFUHZVERWKQRZDQGLQWKHIXWXUH
818
CHAPTER 13
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ(&OLPDWHSURRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHORVHZLQ
1HZ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH EXLOW WR VXSSRUW ÀVKLQJ ÁHHWV FDQQHULHV DQG ORLQLQJ SODQWV
VKRXOG EH FRQVWUXFWHG LQ ORFDWLRQV WKDW ZLOO QRW EH LQXQGDWHG E\ ULVLQJ VHD OHYHOV
SURMHFWHG WR RFFXU GXULQJ WKH H[SHFWHG OLIH VSDQV RI VXFK IDFLOLWLHV &KDSWHU $W
ODWLWXGHVKLJKHUWKDQaƒ6²ƒ1LQIUDVWUXFWXUHVKRXOGDOVREHEXLOWWRZLWKVWDQGWKH
SRVVLEOHHIIHFWVRIPRUHVHYHUHF\FORQHV&KDSWHU,QYHVWPHQWVPD\DOVREHQHHGHG
WR PRGLI\ H[LVWLQJ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH IRU LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DQG SURFHVVLQJ
IDFLOLWLHV7KHSODQQLQJDQGH[SHQGLWXUHLQYROYHGLQFOLPDWHSURRÀQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUH
IRUWKHÀVKHULHVVHFWRUPD\UHGXFHSURÀWVLQWKHVKRUWHUWHUPEXWHQDEOHRSHUDWLRQVWR
FRQWLQXHLQWKHORQJHUWHUP
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ(3DQ3DFLÀFWXQDPDQDJHPHQWORVHZLQ
7KHSURMHFWHGSURJUHVVLYHVKLIWRIWXQDIURPWKH:&32WRWKHHDVWPD\HYHQWXDOO\
UHTXLUH FRRSHUDWLRQ LQ DOO DVSHFWV RI WXQD ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW EHWZHHQ WKH
:&3)&DQG,QWHU$PHULFDQ7URSLFDO7XQD&RPPLVVLRQ,$77&$PHUJHURIWKHVH
RUJDQLVDWLRQVWRIRUPDSDQ3DFLÀFWXQDÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWDJHQF\LVVRPHWKLQJ
WKDW PD\ HYHQWXDOO\ QHHG WR EH FRQVLGHUHG SURYLGLQJ WKH UHODWLYH HIIRUW E\ YHVVHOV
IURPWKH:&32DQG(DVWHUQ3DFLÀF2FHDQLVPDLQWDLQHG7KHFRVWVRIDQ\VXFKUH
RUJDQLVDWLRQDUHOLNHO\WRH[FHHGWKHDGYDQWDJHVLQLWLDOO\EXWWKHEHQHÀWVDUHH[SHFWHG
WRRXWZHLJKWKHVHFRVWVDVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQVRIWXQDVSHFLHVFKDQJH
13.4.2 Supporting policies for economic development and government
revenue (E)
7KHVXJJHVWHGSROLFLHVUHTXLUHGWRLPSOHPHQWWKHDGDSWDWLRQVWRPDLQWDLQRULPSURYH
WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV IURP RFHDQLF ÀVKHULHV WR HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW DQG JRYHUQPHQW
UHYHQXHGHVFULEHGLQ6HFWLRQDUHRXWOLQHGEHORZ7KHSROLFLHVWKDWDSSO\WRHDFK
DGDSWDWLRQDUHOLVWHGLQ7DEOH
¾ 3ROLF\ ( 3URPRWH WUDQVSDUHQW DFFHVV DJUHHPHQWV EHWZHHQ 3,&7V DQG
':)1V VR WKDW WKH 9'6 DOORFDWLRQV LQ SDUWLFXODU FDQ EH HDVLO\ XQGHUVWRRG E\
DOO 31$ PHPEHUV DQG QRQ31$ FRXQWULHV ZKLFK SXUFKDVH ÀVKLQJ GD\V IURP
31$ PHPEHUV XQGHU ELODWHUDO DUUDQJHPHQWV DQG KDYH YHVVHOV ÀVKLQJ LQ 31$
ZDWHUV6WUHQJWKHQQDWLRQDOFDSDFLW\WRUHFRJQLVHVXFFHVVHVDQGIDLOXUHVLQ9'6
DUUDQJHPHQWV DQG RWKHU ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW VFKHPHV DQG WKH JRYHUQDQFH QHHGHG WR
DGPLQLVWHUWKH9'6VRWKDWWKLVÀVKLQJHIIRUWVFKHPHIXOÀOVLWVSRWHQWLDO
¾ 3ROLF\(([SORUHIXUWKHUDSSURDFKHVWRFROOHFWLYHPDQDJHPHQW WRVHHZKHWKHU
WKH\ FDQ ERRVW QDWLRQDO FDSDFLW\ WR LPSOHPHQW PHDVXUHV WKDW ZLOO FRQWLQXH WR
VWUHQJWKHQQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLHVDQGFRQVHUYHWXQDVWRFNV
¾ 3ROLF\ ( $GMXVW QDWLRQDO WXQD PDQDJHPHQW SODQV DQG PDUNHWLQJ VWUDWHJLHV
WR SURYLGH PRUH ÁH[LEOH DUUDQJHPHQWV WR VHOO WXQD RU DFTXLUH WXQD QHHGHG IRU
QDWLRQDO SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV 'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH FRXQWU\ WKLV SROLF\ PD\
819
LQYROYHVHFXULQJDORQJWHUP(3$ZLWKWKH(8HVWDEOLVKLQJDÀVKHU\SURGXFWIRRG
VDIHW\FRPSHWHQWDXWKRULW\DQGDVVRFLDWHGODERUDWRU\WHVWLQJIDFLOLWLHVRUVHUYLFHV
DQGGHPRQVWUDWLQJWKDWFDWFKHVFRPSO\ZLWK,88ÀVKLQJUHJXODWLRQV$GGLWLRQDO
PDUNHWVWRWKH(8VKRXOGDOVREHGHYHORSHG
¾ 3ROLF\(,QFOXGHLPSOLFDWLRQVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIIXWXUH
PDQDJHPHQW REMHFWLYHV DQG VWUDWHJLHV IRU :&3)& SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ UHODWLRQ
WR WKH SURMHFWHG HYHQWXDO UHGXFWLRQ LQ RYHUDOO DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN \HOORZÀQ
DQGELJH\HWXQDLQWKH:&32,QSDUWLFXODU:&3)&VKRXOGFRQVLGHUWKHQHHGWR
VWUHQJWKHQWKHPHFKDQLVPVWRPDQDJHWRWDOÀVKLQJHIIRUWRUFDWFKHVRUERWK
LQLWVFRQYHQWLRQDUHDDQGGHYHORSWKHQHFHVVDU\WRROVWRPRQLWRUDQGHQIRUFH
LWVFRQVHUYDWLRQDQGPDQDJHPHQWPHDVXUHVWRDQWLFLSDWHDQ\ODUJHFKDQJHLQWKH
IXQGDPHQWDOELRORJLFDOSDUDPHWHUVRIH[SORLWHGVWRFNV
¾ 3ROLF\(5HYLVHOLFHQVLQJFRQGLWLRQVIRU':)1VDVQHHGHGWRUHTXLUHWKDWDOO
YHVVHOVSURYLGHRSHUDWLRQDOOHYHOFDWFKDQGHIIRUWGDWDIURPORJVKHHWVLQFOXGLQJ
KLVWRULFDOGDWDIRUÀVKFDXJKWERWKZLWKLQWKH((=DQGRQWKHKLJKVHDV7KHGDWD
VKRXOGEHVXEPLWWHGWRWKHOLFHQVLQJFRXQWU\IRUVXEVHTXHQWXVHE\:&3)&DQG
63&WR LPSURYH WKH PRGHOV IRUHVWLPDWLQJ WXQDGLVWULEXWLRQVDQGFDWFKHVLQ WKH
IXWXUH6HFWLRQ
¾ 3ROLF\()LQDOLVHWKHGHFODUDWLRQRIQDWLRQDORFHDQERXQGDULHVLQFRPSOLDQFH
ZLWKWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV&RQYHQWLRQRQWKH/DZRIWKH6HD)RUPDQ\FRXQWULHV
WKLVLQYROYHVFRPSOHWLQJWKHWHFKQLFDOZRUNWRHVWDEOLVKWKHLUEDVHOLQHVWHUUHVWULDO
EDVHUHIHUHQFHSRLQWV
¾ 3ROLF\($SSO\UHJLRQDOO\UHVSRQVLEOHVSDWLDOO\H[SOLFLWQDWLRQDOPDQDJHPHQW
PHDVXUHV WR DGGUHVV WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH IRU VXEUHJLRQDO
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI WXQD LQ QDWLRQDO DUFKLSHODJLF ZDWHUV EH\RQG WKH PDQGDWH RI
:&3)&
¾ 3ROLF\ ( 'HYHORS IXUWKHU PHDVXUHV WR PLWLJDWH WKH FDSWXUH RI ELJH\H WXQD
E\SXUVHVHLQHDVFOLPDWHGULYHQUHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKLVVSHFLHVRFFXUVWRWKHHDVW
ZKHUHSXUVHVHLQHFDWFKSHUXQLWHIIRUWLVPXFKKLJKHU
¾ 3ROLF\ ( 8VH UHJLRQDO WUDGH DQG SUHIHUHQWLDO DFFHVV DJUHHPHQWV WR PDUNHW
HQYLURQPHQWDOO\IULHQGO\WXQDSURGXFWVEDVHGRQUHVSRQVLEOHÀVKLQJPHWKRGV
HTXLWDEOH SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ FKDQQHOV WKDW PLQLPLVH &2
HPLVVLRQVWKURXJKRXWWKHVXSSO\FKDLQ
¾ 3ROLF\ ( (QVXUH DOO LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ RSHUDWLRQV PHHW DFFHSWHG VWDQGDUGV
IRU VDIHW\ DW VHD E\ LQFOXGLQJ DQ\ FKDQJHV LQ GHVLJQ RU HTXLSPHQW QHHGHG WR
PDNHORQJOLQHDQGSXUVHVHLQHYHVVHOVPRUHVHDZRUWK\GXULQJF\FORQHVLQÀVKLQJ
OLFHQFHV
¾ 3ROLF\(5HTXLUHDOOQHZLQIUDVWUXFWXUHWREHPRUHFOLPDWHSURRIE\HQVXULQJ
WKDW ODQGEDVHG IDFLOLWLHV DUH QRW FRQVWUXFWHG ZKHUH WKH\ FRXOG EH LQXQGDWHG
E\ ULVLQJ VHD OHYHOV RU H[SRVHG WR DQ\ SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVH LQ VWRUP VXUJH GXULQJ
WKHH[SHFWHGWHUPRIWKHLQYHVWPHQWDQGZKDUIVDQGDFFHVVURDGVFRQWLQXHWR
IXQFWLRQDVVHDOHYHOULVHVDQGLIF\FORQHVLQFUHDVHLQLQWHQVLW\
820
CHAPTER 13
7DEOH 6XPPDU\ RI DGDSWDWLRQV DQG FRPSDQLRQ VXSSRUWLQJ SROLFLHV WR PDLQWDLQ RU
LPSURYHWKHFRQWULEXWLRQVRIRFHDQLFÀVKHULHVWRHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWDQGJRYHUQPHQW
UHYHQXH IRU 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV VHH 6HFWLRQV DQG IRU
GHWDLOV
Adaptation
Type
Supporting
policy*
E1
Full implementation of sustainable fishing effort schemes
W-W
E1, E2, E4–E6
E2
Diversify sources of fish for canneries
W-W
E1–E5, E7
E3
Immediate conservation management measures for bigeye tuna
L-W
E7, E8
E4
Energy efficiency programmes for industrial tuna fleets
W-W
E5
Environmentally-friendly fishing operations
W-W
E6
Gender-sensitive fish processing operations
W-W
E7
Safety at sea
W-W
E10
E8
Climate-proof infrastructure
L-W
E11
E9
Pan-Pacific tuna management
L-W
E2
E9
5HIHUVWRVXSSRUWLQJSROLF\QXPEHULQ6HFWLRQ: ZLQ/ ORVH
13.4.3 Adaptations for maintaining the contribution of fish to food
security (F)
7KH SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ FDXVHG E\ WKH GLUHFW DQG
LQGLUHFWHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH&KDSWHUDUHH[SHFWHGWRZLGHQWKHJDSEHWZHHQ
WKHTXDQWLWLHVRIÀVKUHTXLUHGIRUJRRGQXWULWLRQRUHDWHQWUDGLWLRQDOO\DQGWKHÀVK
DYDLODEOHIURPFRDVWDODQGIUHVKZDWHUKDELWDWVGXHWRSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLQQLQHRI
WKH3,&7V&KDSWHU'HFUHDVHVLQFRDVWDOÀVKHULHVSURGXFWLRQDUHDOVRH[SHFWHG
WRH[DFHUEDWHSUREOHPVLQVXSSO\LQJÀVKIRUWKHODUJHXUEDQSRSXODWLRQVLQDQRWKHU
VHYHQ3,&7V&KDSWHU
7KHDGDSWDWLRQVDQGVXJJHVWHGSROLFLHVIRUPDLQWDLQLQJWKHLPSRUWDQWUROHRIÀVKIRU
IRRGVHFXULW\LQWKHUHJLRQ&KDSWHUFHQWUHRQPLQLPLVLQJWKHVL]HRIWKLVJDS
WKURXJK DSSURSULDWH PDQDJHPHQW RI FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK KDELWDWV DQG
VWRFNV 6HFWLRQ LQFUHDVLQJ DFFHVV WR WXQD IRU UXUDO DQG XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQV
DQGERRVWLQJSRQGDTXDFXOWXUH7KHUHFRPPHQGHGDGDSWDWLRQVDUHVHWRXWEHORZ
0DQ\RIWKHVHLQWHUYHQWLRQVDUHQRWQHZ²WKH\KDYHEHHQSURSRVHGIRUPDQ\\HDUV
DV DQ LQWHJUDO SDUW RI HIIHFWLYH FRDVWDO ]RQH PDQDJHPHQW² DQG HFRV\VWHPEDVHG
ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW² DQG WR DGGUHVV WKH HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK RQ WKH
DYDLODELOLW\RIÀVKIRUIRRGVHFXULW\
7KH &($)0 FRPDQDJHPHQW IUDPHZRUN ZKLFK LQWHJUDWHV FXVWRPDU\ PDULQH
WHQXUHDQGRWKHUVRFLDOFDSLWDOORFDOJRYHUQDQFHWUDGLWLRQDONQRZOHGJHVHOILQWHUHVW
DQGVHOIHQIRUFHPHQWFDSDFLW\SURYLGHVWKHPRVWHIIHFWLYHZD\WRLPSOHPHQWPDQ\RI
WKHVHDGDSWDWLRQV7KLVLVSDUWLFXODUO\WKHFDVHZKHQWKHDGDSWDWLRQVDUHFRQVLGHUHG
E\FURVVVHFWRUDOPDQDJHPHQWDGYLVRU\JURXSVFRPSULVHGRIERWKJRYHUQPHQWDQG
QRQJRYHUQPHQWPHPEHUV
821
13.4.3.1 Adaptations to safeguard fish habitats
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ)0DQDJHDQGUHVWRUHYHJHWDWLRQLQFDWFKPHQWVZLQZLQ
6XVWDLQLQJ FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ IRU IRRG VHFXULW\ LQ PXFK RI
0HODQHVLD EHJLQV ZLWK PDLQWDLQLQJ FDWFKPHQW YHJHWDWLRQ &KDSWHU *RRG
YHJHWDWLRQFRYHUUHGXFHVWKHWUDQVIHURIVHGLPHQWVDQGQXWULHQWVLQWRULYHUQHWZRUNV
DIWHU KHDY\ UDLQIDOO DQG JUHDWO\ UHGXFHV WKH SRWHQWLDO LPSDFWV RQ IUHVKZDWHU DQG
FRDVWDOÀVKKDELWDWV3RRUYHJHWDWLRQFRYHUUHVXOWVLQDFFHOHUDWHGUXQRIIDQGHURVLRQ
&KDSWHUZKLFKGLUHFWO\GDPDJHVFRUDOUHHIPDQJURYHDQGVHDJUDVVKDELWDWVDQG
PDNHVFRUDOVOHVVUHVLOLHQWWREOHDFKLQJ&KDSWHUVDQG)LJXUH)RUIUHVKZDWHU
KDELWDWV ODFN RI VKDGH RQ ULYHUEDQNV DOVR LQFUHDVHV H[SRVXUH RI ÀVK WR LQFUHDVLQJ
WHPSHUDWXUHV 7KH PDLQ LQWHUYHQWLRQV QHHGHG WR HQVXUH WKDW DGHTXDWH OHYHOV RI
YHJHWDWLRQDUHPDLQWDLQHGRUUHVWRUHGLQFDWFKPHQWVDUHVXPPDULVHGEHORZ
)LJXUH 'LIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH TXDOLW\ RI IUHVKZDWHU DQG FRDVWDO ÀVK KDELWDWV XQGHU WKH
LQÁXHQFHRIZHOOPDQDJHGDQGSRRUO\PDQDJHGFDWFKPHQWV
822
CHAPTER 13
y 3URPRWH WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI FDWFKPHQW PDQDJHPHQW IRU ÀVKHULHV DW QDWLRQDO
SODQQLQJ PHHWLQJV DQG REWDLQ FRPPLWPHQWV IURP WKH DJULFXOWXUH IRUHVWU\ DQG
PLQLQJ VHFWRUV WR LPSOHPHQW EHVW SUDFWLFH WR FRQVHUYH YHJHWDWLRQ DQG UHSODQW
WUHHVPLQLPLVHVRLOH[SRVXUHDQGORVVGXULQJFRQVWUXFWLRQRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQG
SUHYHQWIHUWLOL]HUVDQGSROOXWDQWVIURPHQWHULQJZDWHUFRXUVHV
y (QFRXUDJH EHQLJQ IDUPLQJ SUDFWLFHV LQFOXGLQJ WKRVH EXLOW RQ WUDGLWLRQDO
NQRZOHGJH UDLVH DZDUHQHVV RI WKH ¶GRZQVWUHDP· HIIHFWV RI SRRUO\GHVLJQHG
DJULFXOWXUHDQGIRUHVWU\RSHUDWLRQVVXFKDV¶VODVKDQGEXUQ·DQGIDFLOLWDWHEURDG
EDVHG SDUWLFLSDWLRQ RI FXVWRPDU\ RZQHUV LQFOXGLQJ PHQ ZRPHQ DQG \RXWK
LQ WKH GLYHUVLÀFDWLRQ RI DJURIRUHVWU\ SUDFWLFHV ZKLFK DUH LQ KDUPRQ\ ZLWK WKH
PDLQWHQDQFHRIÀVKKDELWDWVWREXLOGUHVLOLHQFHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH
0DLQWDLQLQJ DQG UHVWRULQJ FDWFKPHQW YHJHWDWLRQ VKRXOG LPSURYH WKH TXDOLW\ RI
IUHVKZDWHU DQG FRDVWDO KDELWDWV LQ WKH VKRUW WHUP ,W VKRXOG DOVR KHOS VDIHJXDUG
FRDVWDO KDELWDWV &KDSWHUV DQG DQG DOORZ IUHVKZDWHU KDELWDWV WR H[SDQG DQG
VXSSRUWPRUHÀVK&KDSWHUVDQGLQ3,&7VZKHUHUDLQIDOOLVSURMHFWHGWRLQFUHDVH
&KDSWHU
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ))RVWHUWKHFDUHRIFRDVWDOÀVKKDELWDWVZLQZLQ
,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHYLWDOLPSRUWDQFHRIPLQLPLVLQJVHGLPHQWDQGQXWULHQWLQSXWVWRWKH
FRDVWDO ]RQH IURP UXQRII VHYHUDO PHDVXUHV DUH QHHGHG WR LPSURYH WKH UHVLOLHQFH RI
FRDVWDOÀVKKDELWDWVWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KHVHPHDVXUHVDUHOLVWHGEHORZ
y 3UHYHQWGHWHULRUDWLRQLQZDWHUTXDOLW\WKDWFDQDULVHIURPXUEDQDUHDVHJVHZDJH
IURPKXPDQVDQGDQLPDOKXVEDQGU\FKHPLFDOGLVFKDUJHVVROLGZDVWHDQGIDFWRU\
HIÁXHQW E\ FRQWUROOLQJ SROOXWLRQ DQG PDQDJLQJ ZDVWH 7KHVH DUH UHVSRQVLEOH
LQWHUYHQWLRQVDWDQ\WLPHEXWUHTXLUHHYHQJUHDWHUDWWHQWLRQLQWKHIXWXUHEHFDXVH
WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV WR FRDVWDO ZDWHUV PD\ UHGXFH WKHLU FDSDFLW\ WR DWWHQXDWH
ZDVWH
y (OLPLQDWH DFWLYLWLHV WKDW GDPDJH WKH WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO VWUXFWXUH RI FRUDO UHHIV
ZKLFKSURYLGHPXFKRIWKHFRDVWDOÀVKHULHVSURGXFWLRQ&KDSWHUVDQG6XFK
DFWLYLWLHV LQFOXGH GHVWUXFWLYH ÀVKLQJ PHWKRGV SDUWLFXODUO\ G\QDPLWH ÀVKLQJ
H[WUDFWLRQRIFRUDOIRUEXLOGLQJPDWHULDOVFDUHOHVVDQFKRULQJRIERDWVDQGWRXULVP
DFWLYLWLHV DQG SRRUO\GHVLJQHG FRDVWDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQG WRXULVW IDFLOLWLHV
'HJUDGDWLRQ RI FRUDO UHHIV FDQ DOVR SURPRWH WKH LQFLGHQFH RI FLJXDWHUD ÀVK
SRLVRQLQJ
y 3URKLELW DFWLYLWLHV WKDW UHGXFH PDQJURYHV HJ UHPRYLQJ WUHHV DQG GDPDJH WKH
VWUXFWXUDO FRPSOH[LW\ RI VHDJUDVVHV HJ GUHGJLQJ RU ÀVKLQJ ZLWK WUDZO QHWV
&KDSWHU
y 5DLVHDZDUHQHVVRIFRPPXQLWLHVDERXWWKHGHSHQGHQFHRIÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHV
RQ FRDVWDO KDELWDWV WKDW PD\ QRW DOUHDG\ EH SDUW RI WKHLU WUDGLWLRQDO NQRZOHGJH
RU KDV EHHQ ORVW DQG OLDLVH ZLWK FRPPXQLWLHV WR PDLQWDLQ FRQQHFWLYLW\ DPRQJ
823
FRUDO UHHIV PDQJURYHV VHDJUDVVHV DQG LQWHUWLGDO ÁDWV WR FRQVHUYH WKH KDELWDW
PRVDLFQHHGHGIRUVXFFHVVIXOUHFUXLWPHQWRIMXYHQLOHÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHVDQG
SURYLGH D GLYHUVH UDQJH RI IHHGLQJ DUHDV IRU WKH DGXOW GHPHUVDO ÀVK WKDW
GRPLQDWHFRDVWDOÀVKHULHV&KDSWHUVDQG
y (QOLVW WKH DVVLVWDQFH RI 1*2V FRUDO UHHI WDVN IRUFHV[ DQG SURJUDPPHV VXFK DV
6HDJUDVV:DWFK[L WR KHOS FRPPXQLWLHV SURWHFW ÀVK KDELWDWV ZKLOH XVLQJ WKHVH
KDELWDWV IRU ÀUHZRRG WDSD EXLOGLQJ PDWHULDOV DQG PHGLFLQHV HWF LQ ZD\V WKDW
FRPELQHWUDGLWLRQDODSSURDFKHV DQGJRYHUQPHQWUHJXODWLRQVIRUVXVWDLQDEOHXVH
RIUHVRXUFHV
7KHVHPHDVXUHVVKRXOGKHOSPDLQWDLQFRDVWDOÀVKKDELWDWVDQGUHFUXLWPHQWRIFRDVWDO
ÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHVLQWKHVKRUWWHUP7KH\DUHDOVRH[SHFWHGWRKHOSPDNHFRUDO
UHHIV PDQJURYHV DQG VHDJUDVVHV PRUH UHVLOLHQW WR WKH YDULRXV VWUHVVRUV DVVRFLDWHG
ZLWK FOLPDWH FKDQJH LQ WKH IXWXUH VXFK DV LQFUHDVHG ZDWHU WHPSHUDWXUH JUHDWHU
WXUELGLW\DQGQXWULHQWVORDGVDFLGLÀFDWLRQDQGVHDOHYHOULVH&KDSWHUVDQG
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ ) 3URYLGH IRU ODQGZDUG PLJUDWLRQ RI FRDVWDO ÀVK KDELWDWV
ORVHZLQ
2Q ODUJH KLJK LVODQGV QDWLRQDO SODQQHUV DQG FRPPXQLW\ OHDGHUV VKRXOG DYRLG
EXLOGLQJ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH RQ ORZO\LQJ ODQG DGMDFHQW WR PDQJURYHV VHDJUDVVHV
DQG LQWHUWLGDO ÁDWV ZKLFK ZLOO HYHQWXDOO\ KDYH WR EH SURWHFWHG IURP VHDOHYHO ULVH
E\ HUHFWLQJ EDUULHUV WR LQXQGDWLRQ ,QVWHDG VXFK ORZO\LQJ DUHDV VKRXOG UHPDLQ
XQGHYHORSHG WR SURYLGH RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU ÀVK KDELWDWV WR PLJUDWH ODQGZDUG
&KDSWHU SDUWLFXODUO\ ZKHUH SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ VHD OHYHO &KDSWHU DUH
H[SHFWHG WR LQXQGDWH ODUJH DUHDV RI ODQG %HFDXVH ODQG LV VXEMHFW WR WUDGLWLRQDO
RZQHUVKLS LQ PXFK RI WKH UHJLRQ QDWLRQDO JRYHUQPHQWV VKRXOG KHOS FRPPXQLWLHV
LGHQWLI\ DUHDV WKDW ZLOO EH LQXQGDWHG DQG FRQVLGHU FRPSHQVDWLQJ UHVRXUFH RZQHUV
ZKRDJUHHWRIRUHJRGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHLUODQGLIQHFHVVDU\
:KHUHH[LVWLQJURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHEORFNVWKHLQXQGDWLRQRIORZO\LQJODQGVXLWDEOH
IRU WKH FRORQLVDWLRQ RI PDQJURYHV FKDQQHOV DQG EULGJHV VKRXOG EH FRQVWUXFWHG WR
DOORZLQXQGDWLRQWRRFFXU)LJXUH&RPPXQLWLHVVKRXOGDOVREHHQFRXUDJHGDQG
WUDLQHGWRSODQWPDQJURYHVLQVXFKSODFHVWRIDVWWUDFNWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIWKHWUHHV
&KDSWHU
7KHVKRUWWHUPRSSRUWXQLW\FRVWVRIWKLVDGDSWDWLRQ²ORVVRIVRPHXVHVRIXQGHYHORSHG
ORZO\LQJ ODQG ² DUH H[SHFWHG WR EH EDODQFHG E\ WKH EHQHÀWV RI PDLQWDLQLQJ ÀVK
KDELWDWV LQ WKH ORQJHU WHUP 6RPH VKRUWWHUP EHQHÀWV DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG KRZHYHU
WKURXJKUDLVLQJDZDUHQHVVDPRQJQDWLRQDOSODQQHUVRIWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIFRDVWDOÀVK
KDELWDWVDQGDYRLGLQJWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHRQORZO\LQJODQGWKDWZLOO
EHGLIÀFXOWWRSURWHFWLQWKHIXWXUH
[ )RUH[DPSOHWKH&RUDO7ULDQJOH,QLWLDWLYHZZZFWLVHFUHWDULDWQHWDERXWFWLSODQRIDFWLRQV
[L ZZZVHDJUDVVZDWFKRUJDERXWKWPO
824
CHAPTER 13
a)
b)
c)
)LJXUH D &RUDO UHHI PDQJURYH VHDJUDVV DQG LQWHUWLGDO KDELWDWV QHDU ORZO\LQJ
XQGHYHORSHG FRDVWDO ODQG E SURMHFWHG ORVV RI PDQJURYH DQG LQWHUWLGDO ÁDW KDELWDWV
EHFDXVH FRDVWDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH EORFNV WKHLU PLJUDWLRQ ODQGZDUG DV VHD OHYHO ULVHV DQG
FPRGLÀFDWLRQVWRURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHWRDOORZODQGZDUGPLJUDWLRQRIPDQJURYHVDQG
LQWHUWLGDOÁDWKDELWDWVXSSOHPHQWHGE\PDQJURYHUHSODQWLQJSURJUDPPHV
825
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ)$OORZIRUH[SDQVLRQRIIUHVKZDWHUKDELWDWVORVHZLQ
7KHIROORZLQJPDQDJHPHQWPHDVXUHVDUHQHHGHGWRPDLQWDLQDQGPD\EHLQFUHDVH
IUHVKZDWHUÀVKSURGXFWLRQLQWKHUHJLRQXQGHUDFKDQJLQJFOLPDWH
y $OORZ ULYHU FKDQQHOV WR PLJUDWH QDWXUDOO\ VR WKDW WKHUH LV QR SHUPDQHQW ORVV RI
KDELWDWTXDOLW\DQGDUHDIROORZLQJÁRRGV&KDSWHU
y 3HUPLW IUHVKZDWHU KDELWDWV WR H[SDQG ZLWK LQFUHDVLQJ UDLQIDOO E\ HQVXULQJ
WKDW LQXQGDWLRQ RI XQGHYHORSHG DUHDV RI ÁRRGSODLQ KDELWDWV LV QRW FRQVWUDLQHG
&KDSWHU
y 5HPRYH RU PRGLI\ PDQPDGH EDUULHUV WKDW SUHYHQW IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK DQG
LQYHUWHEUDWHVIURPUHWUHDWLQJXSVWUHDPDVVDOWZDWHUSHQHWUDWHVIXUWKHULQWRULYHUV
DV VHD OHYHO ULVHV &KDSWHUV DQG /RZFRVW ÀVKZD\V FRQVWUXFWHG ZLWK ORFDO
PDWHULDOVPD\LPSURYHDFFHVVWRXSVWUHDPKDELWDWVLQSODFHVZKHUHLWLVLPSUDFWLFDO
WRUHPRYHEDUULHUVVXFKDVFDXVHZD\VDQGZHLUV
7KH RSSRUWXQLW\ FRVW IRU FRPPXQLWLHV DQG JRYHUQPHQWV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKHVH
DGDSWDWLRQV LV WKH DOLHQDWLRQ RI ODQG DGMDFHQW WR ULYHUV IURP VRPH XVHV WKDW PD\
RWKHUZLVHKDYHEHHQSRVVLEOHWKURXJKHQJLQHHULQJZRUNVWRFRQWDLQÁRRGVRUSUHYHQW
LQWUXVLRQ RI VDOW ZDWHU +RZHYHU WKH UHFRPPHQGHG PHDVXUHV VKRXOG QRW RQO\
SDYH WKH ZD\ IRU H[SDQVLRQ RI IUHVKZDWHU DQG HVWXDULQH ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ XQGHU WKH
SURMHFWHGLQFUHDVHVLQUDLQIDOODQGVHDOHYHOULVH&KDSWHUVDQGWKH\VKRXOGDOVR
SUHYHQWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHIURPEHLQJEXLOWLQSODFHVZKHUHLWLVOLNHO\WREHDWULVNIURP
FOLPDWHFKDQJH
13.4.3.2 Adaptations to optimise catches from coastal demersal and freshwater fish
stocks
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ ) 6XVWDLQ SURGXFWLRQ RI FRDVWDO GHPHUVDO ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV
ORVHZLQ
&RPPXQLW\EDVHG HFRV\VWHP DSSURDFKHV WR ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW VKRXOG EH
VWUHQJWKHQHGLQDOO3,&7VZLWKRXWGHOD\6XFK&($)0DSSURDFKHVVKRXOGEHEDVHG
RQ SULPDU\ ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW 6HFWLRQ LQWHQGHG WR NHHS SURGXFWLRQ RI
GHPHUVDOÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHVZLWKLQVXVWDLQDEOHERXQGVXVLQJDUDQJHRIPHWKRGVWR
DVVHVVGDWDSRRUÀVKHULHV7KLVSUHFDXWLRQDU\DSSURDFKZLOOUHGXFHWKHVXSSO\
RIGHPHUVDOÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHVEXWDOVRUHGXFHWKHJDSEHWZHHQFRDVWDOÀVKHULHV
SURGXFWLRQ DQG WKH ÀVK QHHGHG E\ UDSLGO\ JURZLQJ SRSXODWLRQV E\ VDIHJXDUGLQJ
WKHSRWHQWLDOIRUVWRFNVWREHUHSOHQLVKHG&RQYHUVHO\SRRUPDQDJHPHQWLVOLNHO\WR
LQFUHDVHWKLVJDS&KDSWHU8QGHUVWDQGLQJWKHGLPHQVLRQVRIWKHJDSZLOODVVLVW
JRYHUQPHQWVDQGFRPPXQLWLHVWRSODQWKHDGDSWDWLRQVQHHGHGWRÀOOLWVHHEHORZ
,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH KRZHYHU WKDW &($)0 ZLOO QHHG WR EH SURJUHVVLYHO\ PRUH
SUHFDXWLRQDU\WRDOORZIRUWKHLQFUHDVHGXQFHUWDLQW\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKFOLPDWHFKDQJH
)LJXUH,QGHHGWKHHIIHFWVRIRYHUÀVKLQJPD\EHFRPHLQFUHDVLQJO\GLIÀFXOWWR
826
CHAPTER 13
UHYHUVHEHFDXVHUHSOHQLVKPHQWRIORFDOÀVKVWRFNVIURPGLVWDQWVRXUFHVLVH[SHFWHGWR
EHFRPHPRUHVSRUDGLFDVLQFUHDVHGVHDVXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUH667DQGDOWHUHGRFHDQ
FXUUHQWSDWWHUQVUHGXFHWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIMXYHQLOHVIURPUHPRWHDUHDV&KDSWHU
)LVKLQJQHDUDFRUDOUHHI3DSXD1HZ*XLQHD
Photo: Jurgen Freund
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ)'LYHUVLI\FDWFKHVRIFRDVWDOGHPHUVDOÀVKORVHZLQ
5DLVLQJ DZDUHQHVV DPRQJ ÀVKLQJ FRPPXQLWLHV RI WKH DOWHUDWLRQV LQ VSHFLHV
FRPSRVLWLRQ RI GHPHUVDO ÀVK OLNHO\ WR EH FDXVHG E\ D FKDQJLQJ FOLPDWH ZLOO DVVLVW
FRPPXQLWLHV WR RSWLPLVH FDWFKHV &KDQJHV LQ VSHFLHV FRPSRVLWLRQ DUH H[SHFWHG WR
EH GULYHQ E\ ORFDO LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH DEXQGDQFH RI VRPH VSHFLHV QRW FXUUHQWO\
KDUYHVWHG GXH WR FKDQJHV LQ GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG DQ LQFUHDVH LQ KHUELYRURXV
VSHFLHV DV D UHVXOW RI WKH H[SHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI FRDVWDO KDELWDWV
&KDSWHUVDQG'LYHUVLI\LQJÀVKLQJSUDFWLFHVWRWDNHFDWFKHVUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRI
WKHFKDQJHVLQUHODWLYHDEXQGDQFHRIVSHFLHVZLWKLQDSULPDU\ÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQW
IUDPHZRUN6HFWLRQVKRXOGKHOSPD[LPLVHWKHSRWHQWLDOWRUHDOLVHJDLQVIURP
WKHLQFUHDVHVRIVRPHÀVKVSHFLHV
1HYHUWKHOHVV KDUYHVWLQJ RI KHUELYRURXV ÀVK QHHGV WR EH UHVWUDLQHG WR HQVXUH WKH\
UHPDLQSOHQWLIXOHQRXJKWRUHPRYHWKHDOJDHWKDWLQKLELWWKHVXUYLYDODQGJURZWKRI
FRUDOV$QDEXQGDQFHRIKHUELYRURXVÀVKLVDOVRH[SHFWHGWRHQKDQFHWKHUHVLOLHQFH
RIFRUDOVWRLQFUHDVHVLQZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUH&KDSWHUZLWKSRVLWLYHNQRFNRQHIIHFWV
RQ RWKHU W\SHV RI UHHI ÀVK &KDSWHU )RUHJRLQJ VRPH RI WKH FDWFK RI KHUELYRURXV
VSHFLHV UHGXFHV SRWHQWLDO VXSSOLHV RI ÀVK LQ WKH VKRUW DQG ORQJ WHUP EXW VKRXOG
LQFUHDVHRYHUDOOSURGXFWLYLW\RIRWKHUGHPHUVDOÀVKLQWKHIXWXUH
827
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ ) 0DQDJH IUHVKZDWHU DQG HVWXDULQH ÀVKHULHV WR KDUQHVV
RSSRUWXQLWLHVORVHZLQ
&RPPXQLW\EDVHG HFRV\VWHP DSSURDFKHV WR ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW DOVR QHHGV WR
EH LQWURGXFHG IRU 31*·V H[WHQVLYH IUHVKZDWHU DQG HVWXDULQH ÀVKHULHV DQG VPDOOHU
ÀVKHULHV HOVHZKHUH LQ 0HODQHVLD ,Q FRQWUDVW WR FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV WKH FRPPXQLWLHV
ZKR GHSHQG RQ IUHVKZDWHU DQG HVWXDULQH UHVRXUFHV FDQ EH JXLGHGWR KDUYHVW PRUH
ÀVKLQFUHPHQWDOO\DVSURGXFWLRQLQFUHDVHVXQGHUJUHDWHUSURMHFWHGUDLQIDOODQGZDWHU
WHPSHUDWXUHV DQG VHDOHYHO ULVH &KDSWHUV DQG (IIHFWLYH SULPDU\ ÀVKHULHV
PDQDJHPHQW 6HFWLRQ LV QHHGHG WR VHFXUH WKHVH EHQHÀWV *RYHUQPHQWV
DQG FRPPXQLWLHV FDQ XVH WKH PHDVXUHV GHVFULEHG EHORZ WR WDNH DGYDQWDJH RI WKH
SURMHFWHGLQFUHDVHVLQIUHVKZDWHUDQGHVWXDULQHÀVKHULHVSURGXFWLRQ
y 'LYHUVLI\ ÀVKHULHV RYHU D ZLGHU UDQJH RI VSHFLHV DQG KDELWDWV WR KDUQHVV WKH
H[SHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ IUHVKZDWHU DQG HVWXDULQH ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ
ÀVKHULHVEDVHGRQVSHFLHVDWORZWURSKLFOHYHOVHJULYHUKHUULQJDQGLQWURGXFHG
DQGLQYDVLYHVSHFLHVWROHUDQWRIWKHGLUHFWDQGLQGLUHFWHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH
HJ VQDNHKHDG &KDSWHU )LVKLQJ PHWKRGV VKRXOG DOVR EH GHYHORSHG IRU
ÁRRGSODLQKDELWDWVSUHVHQWO\FRQVLGHUHGLQDFFHVVLEOH
y ,QYHVWLJDWH ZD\V WR PDQDJH SRSXODWLRQV RI ORZYDOXH LQYDVLYH VSHFLHV WKDW PD\
EHIDYRXUHGE\FOLPDWHFKDQJHWRUHGXFHQHJDWLYHLQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKPRUHYDOXDEOH
IRRGVSHFLHV)RUH[DPSOHXVLQJZDONLQJFDWÀVKDQGFOLPELQJSHUFKWRSURGXFH
ÀVKPHDOIRUSRQGDTXDFXOWXUHRUÀVKVLODJHIHUWLOLVHU&KDSWHU
y 6WUHQJWKHQ WUDGLWLRQDO PHFKDQLVPV UHJXODWLQJ DFFHVV WR DQG XVH RI ULYHUV DQG
RWKHUIUHVKZDWHUKDELWDWVWRFRQVHUYHWKHSURMHFWHGLQFUHDVHGEHQHÀWVIRUUDSLGO\
JURZLQJUHVLGHQWFRPPXQLWLHV
$OWKRXJK&($)0IRUIUHVKZDWHUDQGHVWXDULQHÀVKHULHVEDVHGRQSULPDU\ÀVKHULHV
PDQDJHPHQWOLPLWVSURGXFWLRQLQWKHIDFHRIWKHJUHDWQHHGIRUÀVKE\WKHODUJHLQODQG
FRPPXQLWLHVLQ31*LWVKRXOGDOORZWKHVHÀVKHULHVWRPDNHJUHDWHUFRQWULEXWLRQVWR
IRRGVHFXULW\DVWKHSURMHFWHGLQFUHDVHVLQSURGXFWLYLW\RFFXUGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH
13.4.3.3 Adaptations to fill the gap in fish needed for food security
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ ) ,QFUHDVH DFFHVV WR WXQD IRU XUEDQ DQG UXUDO SRSXODWLRQV
ZLQZLQ
7KHULFKWXQDUHVRXUFHVRIWKHUHJLRQ&KDSWHUSURYLGH3,&7VZLWKWKHRSSRUWXQLW\
WR ÀOO WKH JDS EHWZHHQ WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ LQ XUEDQ DQG UXUDO
FRPPXQLWLHVLQWKHIXWXUHDQGWKHGHPHUVDOÀVKH[SHFWHGWREHDYDLODEOHIURPFRDVWDO
ÀVKHULHV7KHNH\DGDSWDWLRQVIRULQFUHDVLQJDFFHVVWRWXQDDUHGHVFULEHGEHORZ
y 3URPRWH WKH VWRUDJH DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ORZYDOXH WXQD DQG E\FDWFK QRZ
UHWDLQHG E\ LQGXVWULDO YHVVHOV WUDQVKLSSLQJ WKHLU FDWFK WKURXJK FDSLWDO FLWLHV LQ
31$ FRXQWULHV RU ODQGLQJ LW DW RWKHU SRUWV HOVHZKHUH LQ WKH UHJLRQ WR SURYLGH
LQH[SHQVLYH ÀVK IRU UDSLGO\JURZLQJ XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQV 7KLV DGDSWDWLRQ VKRXOG
828
CHAPTER 13
PHHW PRVW RI WKH VKRUWIDOO LQ WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ LQ PDQ\ RI WKH
PDLQXUEDQFHQWUHVLQWKHVKRUWDQGORQJWHUP,WVKRXOGEHUHLQIRUFHGLQ31*DQG
6RORPRQ,VODQGVWKURXJKLQFUHDVHGODQGLQJVRIÀVKWRVXSSO\WKHFDQQHULHVEHLQJ
FRQVWUXFWHGWKHUH,QVRPHRWKHUXUEDQFHQWUHVHJ7DUDZDLQ.LULEDWLSURMHFWHG
FKDQJHVLQGLVWULEXWLRQRIVNLSMDFNWXQDVKRXOGDOVRPDNHWKLVDGDSWDWLRQHDVLHUWR
DFKLHYH&KDSWHU7KLVDGDSWDWLRQVKRXOGDOVRDLPWRLQFUHDVHWKHLQYROYHPHQW
RI ZRPHQ LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG VHOOLQJ RI ORZYDOXH WXQD DQG E\FDWFK ,Q
VRPHRIWKHVPDOOHUXUEDQFHQWUHVLQWKHQHDUWHUPFDUHPD\EHQHHGHGWRUHOHDVH
ORZYDOXH WXQD DQG E\FDWFK RQWR WKH PDUNHW LQ ZD\V DQG DW WLPHV WKDW GR QRW
XQGHUPLQHWKHOLYHOLKRRGVRIORFDOVPDOOVFDOHFRPPHUFLDOÀVKHUV
y 7UDQVIHU FRDVWDO ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW IURP GHPHUVDO ÀVK WR QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVK
HVSHFLDOO\WXQD7KLVFDQEHGRQHPRVWHIIHFWLYHO\E\LQVWDOOLQJQHWZRUNVRIORZ
FRVWÀVKDJJUHJDWLQJGHYLFHV)$'V)LJXUHDQFKRUHGFORVHHQRXJKWRWKH
FRDVWXVXDOO\ZLWKLQ²NPIURPWKHVKRUHDWGHSWKVRI²PWRSURYLGH
EHWWHU DFFHVV WR VNLSMDFN DQG \HOORZÀQ WXQD IRU VXEVLVWHQFH DQG VPDOOVFDOH
FRPPHUFLDOÀVKHUV
7KH WHFKQRORJ\ IRU WKHVH DQFKRUHG )$'V KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG RYHU GHFDGHV DQG
ZRUNV ZHOO SURYLGHG WKH )$'V DUH SODFHG ZKHUH WKH\ DWWUDFW PDLQO\ WXQD DQG
RWKHU RFHDQLF ÀVK QRW SHODJLF ÀVK FORVHO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK UHHIV &KDSWHU $QFKRUHG ÀVK DJJUHJDWLQJ GHYLFHV QRZ FRVW a 86' ² GHSHQGLQJ RQ
GHSWK 7KH YDOXH RI WXQD DQG RWKHU ÀVK FDXJKW DURXQG WKHVH )$'V FDQ JUHDWO\
H[FHHGWKHFRVWVRIFRQVWUXFWLRQDQGGHSOR\PHQW+RZHYHUPDQ\FRPPXQLWLHV
ZLOOQHHGWUDLQLQJLQWKHPHWKRGVXVHGWRÀVKDURXQG)$'VDQGLQSRVWKDUYHVW
SURFHVVLQJ RI FDWFKHV VHH EHORZ WR GHULYH WKH IXOO UDQJH RI EHQHÀWV 1HWZRUNV
RI )$'V VKRXOG EH VHHQ DV SDUW RI WKH QDWLRQDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH IRU IRRG VHFXULW\
&RPPXQLWLHV DQG WKHLU GHYHORSPHQW SDUWQHUV VKRXOG PDNH SODQV WR PDLQWDLQ
)$'VUHJXODUO\DQGUHSODFHWKHPZKHQWKH\DUHORVW
a)
b)
)LJXUHD'HVLJQRIDQFKRUHGORZFRVWÀVKDJJUHJDWLQJGHYLFHV)$'VVXLWDEOHIRU
SODFLQJ LQ FRDVWDO ZDWHUV XVXDOO\ ² P GHHS WR LQFUHDVH DFFHVV WR VNLSMDFN DQG
\HOORZÀQWXQDDQGRWKHUODUJHSHODJLFÀVKVSHFLHVEVXUIDFHEXR\VRID)$'LQ3DSXD
1HZ*XLQHDSKRWR:LOOLDP6RNLPL
829
7UDQVIHUULQJHIIRUWIURPGHPHUVDOWRQHDUVKRUHSHODJLFÀVKVKRXOGGHOLYHUPXFKRIWKH
ÀVKUHTXLUHGIRUIRRGE\FRDVWDOFRPPXQLWLHV&KDSWHULQWKHVKRUWDQGORQJWHUP
,QFUHDVHG UHOLDQFH RQ QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVK VKRXOG EH IDYRXUHG E\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH
DFURVVWKHUHJLRQXQWLODQGLQWKHHDVWXQWLOGXHWRSURMHFWHGFKDQJHVLQWKH
GLVWULEXWLRQDQGDEXQGDQFHRIWXQD&KDSWHU(YHQLQ31*DQG6RORPRQ,VODQGV
ZKHUHWXQDFDWFKHVDUHHYHQWXDOO\H[SHFWHGWRGLPLQLVKWXQDVKRXOGVWLOOEHSOHQWLIXO
HQRXJKWRPDNHDQFKRUHG)$'VDQHIÀFLHQWDGDSWDWLRQUHVSRQVHWRLQFUHDVLQJKXPDQ
SRSXODWLRQVDQGGHFOLQLQJGHPHUVDOÀVKHULHV
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ ) 'HYHORS SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH WR GLYHUVLI\ WKH VXSSO\ RI ÀVK
ZLQZLQ
$OWKRXJKWKHUHLVJUHDWSRWHQWLDOIRUWXQDWRVXSSO\3,&7VZLWKPXFKRIWKHDGGLWLRQDO
ÀVKWKH\QHHGIRUJRRGQXWULWLRQRIWKHLUSRSXODWLRQV&KDSWHUSURYLGLQJDFFHVV
WRWXQDHYHU\ZKHUHLQWKHUHJLRQRUDWDOOWLPHVZLOOQRWEHSRVVLEOH'HYHORSPHQW
RISRQGDTXDFXOWXUH)LJXUHLQSHULXUEDQDUHDVDQGIRUWKHEHQHÀWRILQODQG
FRPPXQLWLHV LQ 31* DQG FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV ZLWK OLPLWHG DFFHVV WR GHPHUVDO
ÀVKRU)$'VLQRWKHU3,&7VVKRXOGDOVRVXSSO\PRUHÀVK&KDSWHUVDQG3RQG
DTXDFXOWXUH KDV ORQJ EHHQ VXFFHVVIXO LQ $VLD ZKHUH PXFK RI WKH SURGXFWLRQ LV
EDVHG RQ 1LOH WLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLV QLORWLFXV LQFOXGLQJ JHQHWLFDOO\ LPSURYHG IDUPHG
WLODSLD*,)7YDULHWLHV1LOHWLODSLDDUHHDV\WRUHSURGXFHDQGXVXDOO\UHDFKKDUYHVW
VL]HZLWKLQ²PRQWKVLQWKHWURSLFV&DUSDQGPLONÀVKDOVRKDYHSRWHQWLDOIRU
SRQGDTXDFXOWXUH&KDSWHU
a)
b)
)LJXUHD+DUYHVWLQJ1LOHWLODSLDIURPDIUHVKZDWHUSRQGLQ)LMLDQGEDIDUPHG
1LOHWLODSLDSKRWRV7LPRWK\3LFNHULQJ
.H\ FRQVLGHUDWLRQV LQYROYHG LQ LPSOHPHQWLQJ SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH DUH VHOHFWLRQ RI
DSSURSULDWH VSHFLHV GHVLJQ DQG FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI KDWFKHU\ V\VWHPV DQG QHWZRUNV
WKDWDOORZJRRGTXDOLW\ÀQJHUOLQJVWREHGLVWULEXWHGHIIHFWLYHO\WRIDUPHUVORFDWLRQ
RI SRQGV ZKHUH WKH\ ZLOO QRW EH DIIHFWHG E\ ÁRRGV DYDLODELOLW\ RI FRVWHIIHFWLYH
IHHGV IRU VHPLLQWHQVLYH DQG LQWHQVLYH IDUPLQJ V\VWHPV EDVHG RQ ORFDOO\DYDLODEOH
LQJUHGLHQWVZKHUHYHUSRVVLEOHFDSDFLW\RIÀVKHULHVVWDIIDQGH[WHQVLRQRIÀFHUVWR
830
CHAPTER 13
SURYLGHWUDLQLQJPHFKDQLVPVIRUGLVWULEXWLQJSURGXFWLRQWRPDUNHWVSRVVLEOH
HIIHFWV RQ IUHVKZDWHU ELRGLYHUVLW\ RI ÀVK HVFDSLQJ IURP SRQGV SUHYHQWLRQ RI
HIÁXHQW IURP LQWHQVLYH FRPPHUFLDO RSHUDWLRQV LQ SHULXUEDQ DUHDV IURP HQWHULQJ
QHDUE\ULYHUVDQGFRDVWDOKDELWDWVDQGWKHWKUHDWRIJUHDWHULQFLGHQFHRIPDODULDDV
WKHEUHHGLQJKDELWDWIRUPRVTXLWRHVLVLQFUHDVHGWKURXJKSRQGFRQVWUXFWLRQ
7KH VLPSOH SURYHQ WHFKQRORJ\ IRU IDUPLQJ VSHFLHV OLNH WLODSLD FDUS DQG PLONÀVK
LV H[SHFWHG WR KHOS PHHW WKH JURZLQJ GHPDQG IRU ÀVK LQ VRPH ORFDWLRQV LQ WKH
VKRUW WHUP DQG LV OLNHO\ WR EH IDYRXUHG E\ WKH SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ UDLQIDOO DQG
WHPSHUDWXUHVLQWKHIXWXUH&KDSWHU$YDLODELOLW\RIVXLWDEOHIHHGVLVOLNHO\WREH
RQHRIWKHPDMRUOLPLWLQJIDFWRUVDQGFRXOGEHH[DFHUEDWHGE\LQFUHDVHGH[SRVXUHWR
VKRUWIDOOVLQJOREDOVXSSOLHVRIÀVKPHDOGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH6SHFLÀFDGDSWDWLRQVWR
VHFXUHDGHTXDWHVXSSOLHVRIÀVKPHDOLQFOXGHUDWLRQDOLVLQJDOORFDWLRQRIÀVKPHDO
IURPWXQDSURFHVVLQJSODQWVLQWKHUHJLRQIRUDTXDFXOWXUHDQGDJULFXOWXUHXVLQJ
XQGHVLUDEOHLQWURGXFHGDQGLQYDVLYHIUHVKZDWHUÀVKVSHFLHVLQ31*WRSURGXFHÀVK
IHHGVDWWKHYLOODJHOHYHOUHSODFLQJÀVKPHDOZLWKVXLWDEOHORFDODOWHUQDWLYHVRXUFHV
RISURWHLQDQGSURPRWLQJ%HVW0DQDJHPHQW3UDFWLFH%03IRUIHHGLQJRIIDUPHG
ÀVKWRLQFUHDVHIHHGHIÀFLHQF\
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ)'HYHORSFRDVWDOÀVKHULHVIRUVPDOOSHODJLFÀVKZLQZLQ"
'LYHUVLI\ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV WR FDWFK VPDOO SHODJLF VSHFLHV PDFNHUHO DQFKRYLHV
SLOFKDUGV VDUGLQHV VFDGV IXVLOLHUV DQG VTXLG DQG VXSSRUW FRPPXQLWLHV ZLWK WKH
WUDLQLQJDQGHTXLSPHQWUHTXLUHG7KHJHQHUDOO\VXVWDLQDEOHWKRXJKYDULDEOHQDWXUH
RI VPDOO SHODJLF ÀVK KDUYHVWV &KDSWHU VKRXOG SURYLGH DFFHVV WR PRUH ÀVK LQ WKH
QHDUWHUP7KHRXWORRNIRUWKHORQJWHUPLVXQFHUWDLQ²SURMHFWHGGHFUHDVHVLQSULPDU\
$VFKRRORIVPDOOSHODJLFÀVK²PDFNHUHO5DVWUHOOLJHUEUDFK\VRPD
Photo: Nathalie Behring
831
SURGXFWLYLW\ GXH WR LQFUHDVHG VWUDWLÀFDWLRQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK KLJKHU 667 &KDSWHU PD\FDXVHDEXQGDQFHRIVPDOOSHODJLFÀVKWRGHFOLQH&RQYHUVHO\SURMHFWHGLQFUHDVHV
RIQXWULHQWVLQFRDVWDOZDWHUVGXHWRJUHDWHUUXQRIIPD\LQFUHDVHWKHLUSURGXFWLRQLQ
VRPHORFDWLRQVLQWKHORQJWHUP&KDSWHU
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ),PSURYHSRVWKDUYHVWPHWKRGVZLQZLQ
([WHQGWKHVKHOIOLIHRIÀVKFDXJKWLQFRDVWDODQGLQODQGDUHDVE\WUDLQLQJFRPPXQLWLHV
SDUWLFXODUO\ZRPHQLQDSSURSULDWHZD\VWRLPSURYHWUDGLWLRQDOPHWKRGVIRUVPRNH
FXULQJVDOWLQJDQGGU\LQJÀVK,QWKLVZD\FRDVWDOFRPPXQLWLHVFRXOGPDNHEHWWHU
XVHRIODUJHFDWFKHVRIWXQDDQGVPDOOSHODJLFÀVKLQWKHVKRUWWHUPDQGLIFOLPDWH
FKDQJH PDNHV FDWFKHV RI WKHVH VSHFLHV PRUH YDULDEOH LQ WKH ORQJ WHUP ,PSURYHG
SRVWKDUYHVWPHWKRGVFRXOGDOVRHQDEOHKRXVHKROGVWRVWRUHÀVKIRUWKRVHWLPHVZKHQ
FRQGLWLRQV DUH QRW VXLWDEOH IRU ÀVKLQJ DQG FUHDWH RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR WUDGH SURGXFWV
ZLWKWKRVHLQODQGFRPPXQLWLHVZLWKRXWDFFHVVWRÀVK
13.4.4 Supporting policies for maintaining the contribution of fish to food
security (F)
7KH VXJJHVWHG SROLFLHV UHTXLUHG WR LPSOHPHQW WKH DGDSWDWLRQV WR PDLQWDLQ WKH
FRQWULEXWLRQVRIÀVKWRIRRGVHFXULW\GHVFULEHGLQ6HFWLRQDUHRXWOLQHGEHORZ
7DEOHOLVWVWKHSROLFLHVWKDWDSSO\WRHDFKDGDSWDWLRQ
¾ 3ROLF\ ) 6WUHQJWKHQ JRYHUQDQFH DQG OHJLVODWLRQ WR HQVXUH WKH VXVWDLQDEOH
XVH DQG SURWHFWLRQ RI DOO FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK KDELWDWV E\ EXLOGLQJ
WKHFDSDFLW\RIPDQDJHPHQWDJHQFLHVWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHWKUHDWVSRVHGE\FOLPDWH
FKDQJH DPHQGLQJ H[LVWLQJ OHJLVODWLRQ WR HPSRZHU FRPPXQLWLHV WR PDQDJH
ÀVK KDELWDWV HVWDEOLVKLQJ QHWZRUNV WR WUDQVIHU WKLV NQRZOHGJH WR UXUDO
FRPPXQLWLHV LQWURGXFLQJ UHJXODWLRQV DQG OLFHQFH FRQGLWLRQV IRU IRUHVWU\
DQG PLQLQJ RSHUDWLRQV WR UHLQIRUFH SURWHFWLRQ IRU FDWFKPHQWV DQG FRDVWDO ÀVK
KDELWDWV VWUHQJWKHQLQJ WUDGLWLRQDO DQG QDWLRQDO LQVWLWXWLRQV DQG UHJXODWLRQV
IRU VXVWDLQDEOH XVH RI FRDVWDO ODQG DQG DTXDWLF KDELWDWV DQG DVVLVWLQJ
FRPPXQLWLHV WR PRQLWRU FKDQJHV LQ KDELWDWV DQG FRPSO\ ZLWK PDQDJHPHQW
GHFLVLRQVDQGUHJXODWLRQV
¾ 3ROLF\ ) 3URPRWH HFRV\VWHPEDVHG PDQDJHPHQW PHDVXUHV IRU DJULFXOWXUH
IRUHVWU\DQGPLQLQJDWDOOOHYHOVWRSUHYHQWGDPDJHWRIUHVKZDWHUDQGFRDVWDOÀVK
KDELWDWV WKURXJK VRLO ORVV WUDQVSRUW RI VHGLPHQWV DQG QXWULHQWV WR ZDWHUFRXUVHV
DQGFRDVWVDQGSROOXWLRQ
¾ 3ROLF\)3URWHFWVRXUFHDQGUHVLOLHQWFRUDOUHHIVH[SHFWHGWRVXSSO\UHFUXLWVWR
¶GRZQVWUHDP·UHHIVWRKHOSWKHVHUHHIVUHFRYHUDIWHUFRUDOEOHDFKLQJRUGDPDJHE\
F\FORQHV
¾ 3ROLF\ ) 0LQLPLVH EDUULHUV WR ODQGZDUG PLJUDWLRQ RI FRDVWDO KDELWDWV DQG
H[SDQVLRQRIIUHVKZDWHUÀVKKDELWDWVGXULQJGHYHORSPHQWRIVWUDWHJLHVWRDVVLVW
RWKHUVHFWRUVWRUHVSRQGWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH
832
CHAPTER 13
¾ 3ROLF\ ) 3URPRWH PDQJURYH UHSODQWLQJ SURJUDPPHV LQ VXLWDEOH DUHDV
&KDSWHUWRPHHWWKHWZLQREMHFWLYHVRIHQKDQFLQJKDELWDWIRUFRDVWDOÀVKHULHV
DQGFDSWXULQJFDUERQ
¾ 3ROLF\ ) $SSO\ SULPDU\ ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW WR FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK
VWRFNVWRPDLQWDLQWKHLUSRWHQWLDOIRUUHSOHQLVKPHQW
¾ 3ROLF\ ) 5HVWULFW H[SRUW RI GHPHUVDO ÀVK WR HQVXUH WKDW WKHVH UHVRXUFHV DUH
DYDLODEOHIRUQDWLRQDOIRRGVHFXULW\ZKHUHQHFHVVDU\WKLVSROLF\GRHVQRWDSSO\WR
GHHSZDWHUVQDSSHUV
¾ 3ROLF\ ) $OORFDWH WXQD IURP QDWLRQDO FDWFKHV IRU IRRG VHFXULW\ VR WKDW UXUDO
DQGXUEDQFRPPXQLWLHVKDYHJUHDWHUDFFHVVWRÀVK
¾ 3ROLF\ ) 5HYLVH QDWLRQDO DQG UHJLRQDO WXQD PDQDJHPHQW SODQV WR SURYLGH
WKHÀVKQHHGHGIRUORFDOFRQVXPSWLRQLQFOXGLQJWKHJHQHUDOWXQDPDQDJHPHQW
IUDPHZRUNRIWKH:&3)&
¾ 3ROLF\ ) (QFRXUDJH FRDVWDO ÀVKLQJ FRPPXQLWLHV WR WUDQVIHU HIIRUW WR
QHDUVKRUHSHODJLFVSHFLHVWRVXSSO\PRUHWXQDIRUVXEVLVWHQFHDQGIRUORFDODQG
XUEDQPDUNHWV
¾ 3ROLF\ ) ,QFOXGH )$'V DQFKRUHG LQVKRUH DV SDUW RI WKH QDWLRQDO
LQIUDVWUXFWXUH IRU IRRG VHFXULW\ HQVXUH D PDLQWHQDQFH SURJUDPPH LV LQ SODFH
DQGPDNHSURYLVLRQWRUHSODFH)$'VORVWWKURXJKZHDUDQGWHDUDQGVWRUPV
¾ 3ROLF\)3URYLGHLQFHQWLYHVIRUWKHSULYDWHVHFWRUWRSXUFKDVHVWRUHSURFHVV
DQGGLVWULEXWHORZHUYDOXHWXQDDQGE\FDWFKODQGHGE\LQGXVWULDOÁHHWVLQPDMRU
SRUWVWRLQFUHDVHDFFHVVWRÀVKLQXUEDQDUHDV(QVXUHWKDWVXFKHQWHUSULVHVFRPSO\
ZLWK WKH 5LJKW WR )RRG VWDQGDUGV FRQWDLQHG LQ WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RYHQDQW RQ
(FRQRPLF6RFLDODQG&XOWXUDO5LJKWV,&(6&5DQG+XPDQLWDULDQ/DZ
¾ 3ROLF\ ) 'HGLFDWH D SURSRUWLRQ RI WKH UHYHQXH IURP ÀVKLQJ OLFHQFHV WR
LPSURYHPDQDJHPHQWRIDOOÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHDQGDFFHVVWRÀVKIRUUXUDO
DQG XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQV )RU H[DPSOH E\ XSJUDGLQJ WUDQVSRUW OLQNV WR LQODQG
FRPPXQLWLHVLQ31*WRHQDEOHEHWWHUDFFHVVWRORFDOO\FDQQHGWXQDDQGVPRNHG
DQGGULHGÀVK
¾ 3ROLF\)3URYLGHLQFHQWLYHVIRUWKHSULYDWHVHFWRUWRLQYHVWLQSRQGDTXDFXOWXUH
DQGVXSSRUWHIIHFWLYHV\VWHPVIRUSURGXFLQJDQGGLVWULEXWLQJIU\WRVPDOOKROGHUV
LQUXUDODUHDV
¾ 3ROLF\ ) 5HFRQFLOH WKH XVH RI LQWURGXFHG ÀVK VSHFLHV IRU SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH
ZLWK WKH SRWHQWLDO HIIHFWV RQ IUHVKZDWHU ELRGLYHUVLW\ E\ ]RQLQJ SRQG
DTXDFXOWXUH 8QWLO WKH UHVHDUFK UHFRPPHQGHG 6HFWLRQ LV FRPSOHWHG
WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI 1LOH WLODSLD VKRXOG EH OLPLWHG WR 3,&7V ZKHUH FRDVWDO
ÀVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV DQG ORFDO DFFHVV WR WXQD DUH OLNHO\ WR EH LQVXIÀFLHQW WR PHHW
WKHSUHVHQWDQGIXWXUHUHFRPPHQGHGOHYHORIÀVKFRQVXPSWLRQIRUJRRGQXWULWLRQ
&KDSWHU DQG FDWFKPHQWV ZKHUH 0R]DPELTXH WLODSLD 2UHRFKURPLV
PRVVDPELFXVDOUHDG\RFFXUV
833
¾ 3ROLF\ ) 6WUHQJWKHQ QDWLRQDO FDSDFLW\ DQG FROODERUDWLRQ EHWZHHQ QDWLRQDO
DJHQFLHVWRPDQDJHHQYLURQPHQWDOLVVXHVUHODWHGWRDTXDFXOWXUHGHYHORSPHQW
VXFKDVDSSOLFDWLRQRI(QYLURQPHQWDO,PSDFW$VVHVVPHQWSURFHGXUHVWKDWFRQVLGHU
SUHVHQWDQGIXWXUHULVNVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDTXDFXOWXUHSURSRVDOV
¾ 3ROLF\3URYLGHWUDLQLQJDQGWHFKQLFDOVXSSRUWIRUFRDVWDOÀVKLQJFRPPXQLWLHV
WR FDWFK VPDOO SHODJLF ÀVK DQG IRU LQODQG DQG FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV WR LPSURYH
SRVWKDUYHVWPHWKRGVWRH[WHQGWKHVKHOIOLIHRIFDWFKHV
¾ 3ROLF\ ) 5HYLVH SULPDU\ VFKRRO FXUULFXOD WR WHDFK FKLOGUHQ DERXW ÀVK DQG
IRRGVHFXULW\IRFXVLQJRQWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIÀVKIRUWKHLUKHDOWKWKHEDVLF
PDQDJHPHQWDFWLRQVQHHGHGWRPDLQWDLQÀVKKDELWDWVDQGÀVKVWRFNVDQGWKH
RSWLRQVIRULQFUHDVLQJIXWXUHVXSSOLHVRIÀVK
7DEOH 6XPPDU\ RI DGDSWDWLRQV DQG FRPSDQLRQ VXSSRUWLQJ SROLFLHV WR PDLQWDLQ
WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI ÀVK WR IRRG VHFXULW\ IRU 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV
VHH6HFWLRQVDQGIRUGHWDLOV
Adaptation
Type
Supporting
policy*
Adaptations to safeguard habitats producing fish
F1
Manage and restore vegetation in catchments
W-W
F1, F2, F18
F2
Foster the care of coastal fish habitats
W-W
F1–F3, F18
F3
Provide for landward migration of coastal fish habitats
L-W
F4, F5, F18
F4
Allow for expansion of freshwater habitats
L-W
F4, F18
Adaptations to optimise catches from coastal demersal and freshwater fish stocks
F5
Sustain production of coastal demersal fish and invertebrates
L-W
F6
Diversify catches of coastal demersal fish
L-W
F7
Manage freshwater and estuarine fisheries to harness opportunities L-W
F6, F7, F13, F18
F6, F13, F18
Adaptations to fill the gap in fish needed for food security
F8
Increase access to tuna for urban and rural populations
W-W
F8–F13, F18
F9
Develop pond aquaculture to diversify the supply of fish
W-W
F13–F16, F18
F10
Develop coastal fisheries for small pelagic fish
W-W? F13, F17, F18
F11
Improve post-harvest methods
W-W
F17, F18
5HIHUVWRVXSSRUWLQJSROLF\QXPEHULQ6HFWLRQ: ZLQ/ ORVH
13.4.5 Adaptations for maximising sustainable livelihoods (L)
7KH HYHQWXDO SURMHFWHG VKLIW WR WKH HDVW LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV RI WXQD GHFUHDVHV LQ
SURGXFWLRQ RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV DQG FRDVWDO DTXDFXOWXUH FRPPRGLWLHV DQG LQFUHDVHV
LQSURGXFWLRQRIIUHVKZDWHUÀVKHULHVDQGSRQGDTXDFXOWXUHDUHH[SHFWHGWRDOWHUWKH
DYDLODELOLW\RIIXOOWLPHMREVDQGRSSRUWXQLWLHVWRHDUQLQFRPH&KDSWHU0DQ\RI
WKHDGDSWDWLRQVDQGVXJJHVWHGSROLFLHVUHTXLUHGWRPLQLPLVHWKHORVVRIOLYHOLKRRGV
GHULYHG IURP VRPH ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH DFWLYLWLHV DQG WR FDSLWDOLVH RQ WKH
834
CHAPTER 13
RSSRUWXQLWLHV H[SHFWHG WR EH FUHDWHG IRU RWKHUV DUH WKH VDPH DV WKRVH GHVFULEHG
LQ 6HFWLRQV ² ([DPSOHV LQFOXGH WKH LPSHUDWLYH WR FRQVHUYH DQG UHVWRUH
ÀVK KDELWDWV WKH QHHG WR VHFXUH WKH VXSSOLHV RI WXQD UHTXLUHG WR EDVH PRUH WXQD
SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV ZLWKLQ 3,&7V VZLWFKLQJ ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW IURP GHPHUVDO ÀVK WR
QHDUVKRUHSHODJLFÀVKLQVWDOOLQJLQVKRUH)$'VWRLPSURYHDFFHVVWRWXQDIRUVPDOO
VFDOH FRPPHUFLDO ÀVKHUV GHYHORSLQJ SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH LQ SHULXUEDQ DUHDV DQG
PDUNHWLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOO\IULHQGO\SURGXFWV7KHDGGLWLRQDODGDSWDWLRQVQHHGHGWR
RSWLPLVHWKHQXPEHURIMREVWKDWFDQEHVXVWDLQHGE\WKHVHFWRUDUHRXWOLQHGEHORZ
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ / ,PSURYH WHFKQLFDO DQG EXVLQHVV VNLOOV RI FRPPXQLWLHV
ZLQZLQ
,QFUHDVH FRPPXQLW\ SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ ÀVKLQJ DURXQG )$'V DQG IRU VPDOO SHODJLF
VSHFLHVGHYHORSLQJSRQGDTXDFXOWXUHDQGDSSO\LQJSRVWKDUYHVWPHWKRGV7RJHWKHU
WKHVH DGDSWDWLRQV 6HFWLRQ SURYLGH FRQVLGHUDEOH RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR GLYHUVLI\
LQFRPHHDUQLQJ DFWLYLWLHV 7UDLQLQJ SURJUDPPHV WR WHDFK FRPPXQLW\ PHPEHUV
LQFOXGLQJZRPHQWKHQHFHVVDU\ÀVKLQJDQGIDUPLQJWHFKQLTXHVDQGVPDOOEXVLQHVV
VNLOOV ZLOO EH UHTXLUHG WR FDSLWDOLVH RQ WKHVH RSSRUWXQLWLHV 0LFURÀQDQFH VFKHPHV
PD\ DOVR EH QHHGHG WR DVVLVW SHRSOH WR GLYHUVLI\ LQWR WKH EURDGHU UDQJH RI ÀVKLQJ
RSHUDWLRQV DQG YDOXHDGGHG DFWLYLWLHV LQYROYHG LQ WKHVH DGDSWDWLRQV %HFDXVH WKH
WHFKQRORJ\ IRU DOO WKHVH DGDSWDWLRQV DOUHDG\ H[LVWV WKHVH DFWLYLWLHV DUH H[SHFWHG
WR GHOLYHU EHQHÀWV LQ WKH VKRUW WHUP 7KH SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ DEXQGDQFH RI WXQD
&KDSWHU DQG LPSURYHPHQWV LQ FRQGLWLRQV IRU SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH &KDSWHU LQ
PDQ\3,&7VGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHPHDQVWKDWLQYHVWPHQWVLQWKHVHDGDSWDWLRQVDUH
DOVROLNHO\WRUHVXOWLQEHQHÀWVZHOOLQWRWKHIXWXUH
6PRNLQJÀVK.LULEDWL
Photo: Jocelyn Carlin
835
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ/5HEXLOGSRSXODWLRQVRIVHDFXFXPEHUVDQGWURFKXVORVHZLQ
3ULPDU\ ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW 6HFWLRQ LV QHHGHG WR UHYHUVH WKH GHFOLQHV
LQ VWRFNV RI VHD FXFXPEHUV DQG WURFKXV )RU VHD FXFXPEHUV WKLV LQYROYHV
FRQVHUYDWLYHKDUYHVWVEDVHGRQLQGLFDWRUVVXFKDVVSHFLHVFRPSRVLWLRQDQGVL]H
IUHTXHQF\WRUHVWRUHWKHGHQVLWLHVRIDGXOWVWROHYHOVDERYHWKHWKUHVKROGVUHTXLUHGIRU
UHJXODU UHSOHQLVKPHQW &KDSWHU DQG VWULFW FRQWUROV RQ WKH VL]H RI LQGLYLGXDOV
H[SRUWHG)RUWURFKXVGHQVLWLHVVKRXOGEHUHVWRUHGWR²LQGLYLGXDOVSHUKD
ZLWK D ZLGH VSUHDG RI VL]H FODVVHV +DUYHVWV VKRXOG WKHQ EH UHVWULFWHG WR VKHOOV
SHU KD SHU \HDU SUHIHUDEO\ ZLWK ² \HDU SHULRGV RI PRUDWRULXP EHWZHHQ ÀVKLQJ
HYHQWV &KDSWHU 7KLV DGDSWDWLRQ UHVXOWV LQ VRPH ORVV RI LQFRPH ZKLOH VWRFNV DUH
UHEXLOWEXWVHWVWKHVWDJHIRUJUHDWHUEHQHÀWVLQWKHIXWXUH$OWKRXJKFOLPDWHFKDQJH
PD\DIIHFWWKHSURGXFWLYLW\RIVHDFXFXPEHUVDQGWURFKXV&KDSWHUVDQGPRUH
UREXVWSRSXODWLRQVVKRXOGKDYHDJUHDWHUUHVLOLHQFHWRLQFUHDVHGZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHV
DQGRFHDQDFLGLÀFDWLRQ
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ/'HYHORSFRUDOUHHIHFRWRXULVPYHQWXUHVZLQZLQ"
5HGXFLQJWKHSUHVVXUHRQÀVKHULHVUHVRXUFHVE\SURYLGLQJYLDEOHDOWHUQDWLYHVRXUFHV
RILQFRPHIRUORFDOFRPPXQLWLHVLQWKHWRXULVPVHFWRULVH[SHFWHGWRKHOSPDLQWDLQ
ÀVK VWRFNV ZLWKLQ VXVWDLQDEOH OLPLWV DQG PDNH ÀVKHULHV IRU GHPHUVDO ÀVK DQG
LQYHUWHEUDWHVOHVVYXOQHUDEOHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH+RZHYHUWKHSURMHFWHGGHJUDGDWLRQ
RI FRUDO UHHIV GXH WR LQFUHDVHV LQ 667 DQG RFHDQ DFLGLÀFDWLRQ PD\ DIIHFW WKH ORQJ
WHUP YLDELOLW\ RI HFRWRXULVP RSHUDWLRQV 0XFK FDUH LV DOVR QHHGHG LQ WKH SODQQLQJ
DQGFRQVWUXFWLRQRIIDFLOLWLHVIRUWRXULVPWRHQVXUHWKDWWKH\GRQRWDIIHFWWKHH[WHQW
DQGTXDOLW\RIFRDVWDOÀVKKDELWDWV6HFWLRQ
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ / 'LYHUVLI\ SURGXFWLRQ RI FRDVWDO DTXDFXOWXUH FRPPRGLWLHV
ZLQZLQ
$VVHVV WKH SRWHQWLDO WR JURZ ¶QHZ· FRPPRGLWLHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ OLNHO\ WR VXSSRUW
SURÀWDEOH HQWHUSULVHV DQG EH IDYRXUHG E\ SUHYDLOLQJ HQYLURQPHQWDO HFRQRPLF
DQG VRFLDO FRQGLWLRQV LQ 3,&7V %HFDXVH WKH VSHFLHV LQYROYHG LQ SURGXFLQJ QHZ
FRPPRGLWLHV DUH PRVW OLNHO\ WR EH LQWURGXFHG IURP RWKHU UHJLRQV WKH SRWHQWLDO
ULVNV WR PDULQH ELRGLYHUVLW\ QHHG WR EH UHFRQFLOHG ZLWK RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR SURYLGH
OLYHOLKRRGV2WKHUZLVHDQ\SURGXFWLRQJDLQVPD\EHXQGHUPLQHGE\ORVVHVWRRWKHU
YDOXHGVSHFLHV
¾ $GDSWDWLRQ / 0RGLI\ ORFDWLRQV DQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH IRU FRDVWDO DTXDFXOWXUH
ORVHZLQ
$YDULHW\RIDGDSWDWLRQVFDQEHPDGHDVDQGZKHQUHTXLUHGWRUHGXFHWKHH[SHFWHG
QHJDWLYHHIIHFWVRIVHDOHYHOULVHRFHDQDFLGLÀFDWLRQDQGKLJKHUZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHV
RQFRDVWDODTXDFXOWXUHDFWLYLWLHV&KDSWHUDVGHVFULEHGEHORZ
y 5HORFDWHSHDUOIDUPLQJRSHUDWLRQVWRVLWHVFORVHWRH[LVWLQJFRUDOUHHIVDQGVHDJUDVV
PHDGRZV ZKHUH DUDJRQLWH VDWXUDWLRQ OHYHOV DUH OLNHO\ WR UHPDLQ KLJK HQRXJK
IRU JRRG JURZWK DQG VXUYLYDO RI SHDUO R\VWHUV DQG IRUPDWLRQ RI KLJKTXDOLW\
836
CHAPTER 13
QDFUH &KDSWHU 7KLV DGDSWDWLRQ DOVR DSSOLHV WR WKH VPDOOVFDOH YLOODJHEDVHG
RSHUDWLRQVWRFXOWXUHJLDQWFODPVDQGFRUDOVIRUWKHRUQDPHQWDOPDUNHW
y 5DLVH WKH ZDOOV DQG ÁRRU RI H[LVWLQJ VKULPS SRQGV VR WKDW WKH\ FDQ FRQWLQXH
WR IXQFWLRQ XQGHU VHDOHYHO ULVH DQG LGHQWLI\ ZKLFK SRQGV ZRXOG QHHG WR EH
DEDQGRQHG LQ IDYRXU RI QHZ VWUXFWXUHV IXUWKHU ODQGZDUG DW KLJKHU HOHYDWLRQV
&KDSWHU
y $VVHVVZKLFKDOWHUQDWLYHFRPPRGLWLHVSHUKDSVVHDFXFXPEHUVFRXOGEHSURGXFHG
LQ SRQGV QR ORQJHU VXLWDEOH IRU VKULPSV LQ ZD\V WKDW GR QRW LPSHGH ODQGZDUG
PLJUDWLRQRIPDQJURYHVDQGVHDJUDVVHV
6XFK DGDSWDWLRQV PD\ LQYROYH IRUHJRLQJ SURGXFWLRQ DW H[LVWLQJ VLWHV RU IDFLOLWLHV RU
SURGXFWLRQ RI SUHVHQW FRPPRGLWLHV LQ DQ HIIRUW WR HQVXUH WKDW DTXDFXOWXUH FUHDWHV
MREVLQWKHIXWXUH
13.4.6 Supporting policies for maximising sustainable livelihoods (L)
7KH VXJJHVWHG SROLFLHV QHHGHG WR LPSOHPHQW DGDSWDWLRQV UHFRPPHQGHG IRU
PD[LPLVLQJWKHFRQWULEXWLRQVRIÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHWROLYHOLKRRGVGHVFULEHGLQ
6HFWLRQDUHRXWOLQHGEHORZ7KHSROLFLHVWKDWDSSO\WRHDFKDGDSWDWLRQDUHOLVWHG
LQ7DEOH
¾ 3ROLF\ / 3URYLGH DFFHVV WR WKH WUDLQLQJ QHHGHG WR RSHUDWH SURÀWDEOH
EXVLQHVVHV EDVHG RQ VPDOOVFDOH FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH DFWLYLWLHV IRU
UXUDOFRPPXQLWLHV
¾ 3ROLF\/'HYHORSSDUWQHUVKLSVZLWKUHJLRQDOWHFKQLFDODJHQFLHVWRSURYLGHWKH
QHFHVVDU\WHFKQLFDOVXSSRUWWRPDQDJHFRDVWDOÀVKHULHVDQGGHYHORSDTXDFXOWXUH
HQWHUSULVHV
¾ 3ROLF\ / 3URPRWH SULYDWH VHFWRU LQYHVWPHQW LQ FRDVWDO WRXULVP GHVLJQHG WR
DFFRPPRGDWH FOLPDWH FKDQJH SDUWLFXODUO\ WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ VHD OHYHO
VWRUPVXUJHDQGFKDQJHVWRFRUDOUHHIVDQGRWKHUFRDVWDOKDELWDWV
¾ 3ROLF\ / ,QIRUP SURVSHFWLYH SULYDWH VHFWRU LQYHVWRUV LQ FRDVWDO DTXDFXOWXUH
DERXW WKH SURMHFWHG KRUL]RQV IRU HFRQRPLFDOO\ YLDEOH RSHUDWLRQV IRU HDFK
FRPPRGLW\XQGHUFOLPDWHFKDQJH
¾ 3ROLF\ / 6WUHQJWKHQ QDWLRQDO DQG UHJLRQDO FDSDFLW\ WR DGRSW DQG LPSOHPHQW
DTXDWLF DQLPDO KHDOWK DQG ELRVHFXULW\ PHDVXUHV LQFOXGLQJ GHYHORSPHQW RI D
UHJLRQDODTXDWLFELRVHFXULW\IUDPHZRUNDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOSURWRFROVIRUPRQLWRULQJ
GHWHFWLQJ DQG UHSRUWLQJ DTXDWLF DQLPDO GLVHDVHV WR SUHYHQW LQWURGXFWLRQ RI QHZ
SDWKRJHQV 7KHVH PHDVXUHV ZLOO UHTXLUH FURVVVHFWRUDO DSSURDFKHV LQYROYLQJ
ÀVKHULHVTXDUDQWLQHDQGHQYLURQPHQWDODJHQFLHV
¾ 3ROLF\ / 3URYLGH LQFHQWLYHV IRU DTXDFXOWXUH HQWHUSULVHV WR DVVHVV ULVNV
WR LQIUDVWUXFWXUH VR WKDW IDUPLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DQG IDFLOLWLHV FDQ EH UHORFDWHG LI
QHFHVVDU\
837
7DEOH6XPPDU\RIDGDSWDWLRQVDQGFRPSDQLRQVXSSRUWLQJSROLFLHVWRPD[LPLVHWKH
FRQWULEXWLRQVRIÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHWRWKHFUHDWLRQRIOLYHOLKRRGVLQ3DFLÀF,VODQG
FRXQWULHVDQGWHUULWRULHVVHH6HFWLRQVDQGIRUGHWDLOV
Adaptation
Type
Supporting
policy*
L1
Improve technical and business skills of communities
W-W
L1, L2
L2
Rebuild populations of sea cucumbers and trochus
L-W
L2
L3
Develop coral reef ecotourism ventures
W-W? L3
L4
Diversify production of coastal aquaculture commodities
W-W
L4, L5
L5
Modify locations and infrastructure for coastal aquaculture
L-W
L6
5HIHUVWRVXSSRUWLQJSROLF\QXPEHULQ6HFWLRQ: ZLQ/ ORVH
13.5 Interactions among adaptations
7KH DGDSWDWLRQV UHFRPPHQGHG DERYH KDYH EHHQ GHVLJQHG WR ÀW LQWR H[LVWLQJ
PDQDJHPHQW IUDPHZRUNV WR DGGUHVV WKH HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG
KDELWDW GHJUDGDWLRQ LQ WKH VKRUW WHUP DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH LQ WKH ORQJ WHUP
6HFWLRQV²+RZHYHUVWDNHKROGHUVQHHGWRNQRZZKHWKHUWKH\DUHOLNHO\
WR VXFFHHG LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI RWKHU SURFHVVHV LQYROYHG LQ WKH XVH RI UHVRXUFHV DQG
ZKHWKHU DQ\ QHJDWLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV DPRQJ WKHVH DGDSWDWLRQV FRXOG RFFXU $OVR
VRPHDGDSWDWLRQVRUFRPELQDWLRQVRIDGDSWDWLRQVPD\EHPRUHHIIHFWLYHWKDQRWKHUV
4XDOLWDWLYHPRGHOV$SSHQGL[FDQKHOSWRDQVZHUWKHVHTXHVWLRQV
7R GHPRQVWUDWH WKH XVHIXOQHVV RI WKHVH WRROV ZH KDYH XVHG D TXDOLWDWLYH PRGHO WR
H[DPLQHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKHNH\DGDSWDWLRQVUHFRPPHQGHGWRPDLQWDLQWKH
UROHRIÀVKLQSURYLGLQJIRRGVHFXULW\IRUFRDVWDOFRPPXQLWLHV7KHPRGHOFRQVLGHUHG
WKHHIIHFWVRIORQJVWDQGLQJUHODWLRQVKLSVDPRQJÀVKLQJHIIRUWVWRFNVRIGHPHUVDO
ÀVKDQGLQVKRUHSHODJLFÀVKFDWFKPDUNHWVDQGIRRGVHFXULW\KXPDQSRSXODWLRQ
JURZWK DQG KDELWDW GHJUDGDWLRQ DV GULYHUV RI WKHVH UHODWLRQVKLSV SUDFWLFDO
DGDSWDWLRQVWRPDLQWDLQDFFHVVWRDGHTXDWHÀVKIRUIRRGVHFXULW\LQWKHIDFHRIWKHVH
GULYHUVDQGWKHSRVVLEOHLPSDFWRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQWKHVHDGDSWDWLRQV
7KH TXDOLWDWLYH PRGHO )LJXUH VKRZV WKH HIIHFWV RI VXEVLVWHQFH DQG DUWLVDQDO
ÀVKHULHVRQWKHVWRFNVRIGHPHUVDODQGQHDUVKRUHSHODJLFÀVKWKURXJKWKHYDULDEOHV
RI ÀVKLQJ HIIRUWFDWFKDQGWKHPDUNHWYDOXHRIFDWFK)RRGVHFXULW\LVGHSHQGHQW
RQ FDWFK ZKLFK LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ ERWK ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW DQG VWRFN DEXQGDQFH DQG
ZKLFKVXSSUHVVHVWKHPDUNHWYDOXHRIWKHSURSRUWLRQRIWKHFDWFKVROGYLDDVXSSO\
GHPDQG UHODWLRQVKLS )LVKLQJ HIIRUW LQFUHDVHV FDWFK DQG UHGXFHV VWRFN DEXQGDQFH
DOWKRXJKWKHHIIHFWRIFRDVWDOÀVKLQJRQVWRFNVRIWXQDLVQHJOLJLEOHFRPSDUHGZLWK
WKH HIIHFW RI LQGXVWULDO ÁHHWV &KDSWHUV DQG DQG KDV EHHQ RPLWWHG IURP WKH
DQDO\VLV 7KH EHQHÀWV RI FDWFK VXSSRUW ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW DQG IRRG VHFXULW\ 7KH NH\
GULYHUV²KXPDQSRSXODWLRQJURZWKDQGKDELWDWGHJUDGDWLRQ²VKDSHWKHV\VWHPLQ
SRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHZD\V$QLQFUHDVLQJKXPDQSRSXODWLRQFUHDWHVJUHDWHUGHPDQG
838
CHAPTER 13
IRU IRRG OHDGLQJ WR LQFUHDVHG ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW 3RSXODWLRQ JURZWK DOVR FRQWULEXWHV WR
GHJUDGDWLRQRIWKHFRUDOUHHIVPDQJURYHVDQGVHDJUDVVHVWKDWVXSSRUWGHPHUVDOÀVK
VWRFNV3ODQQHG DGDSWDWLRQV WR PDLQWDLQRULQFUHDVHDFFHVVWRÀVKIRUIRRGVHFXULW\
LQFOXGHLQWHJUDWHGFRDVWDO]RQHPDQDJHPHQWPDQDJHPHQWWRUHEXLOGGHPHUVDOÀVK
VWRFNVWKHXVHRILQVKRUH)$'VWRLQFUHDVHWKHFDWFKRIQHDUVKRUHSHODJLFÀVKSRQG
DTXDFXOWXUHDQGSRVWKDUYHVWSURFHVVLQJ6HFWLRQ
)LJXUH6LJQHGGLJUDSKPRGHORIIDFWRUVDIIHFWLQJWKHXVHRIÀVKIRUIRRGVHFXULW\E\
FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV LQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV XQGHU WKH $ HPLVVLRQV
VFHQDULR /LJKW EOXH FLUFOHV UHSUHVHQW PDMRU YDULDEOHV UHJXODWLQJ GHOLYHU\ RI SURWHLQ
IURPFRDVWDOÀVKHULHVGDUNEOXHFLUFOHVUHSUHVHQWVRPHLPSRUWDQWGULYHUVLQWKHV\VWHP
DQG JUHHQ FLUFOHV UHSUHVHQW SRVVLEOH NH\ DGDSWDWLRQV IRU IRRG VHFXULW\ /LQNV HQGLQJ LQ
DQ DUURZ UHSUHVHQW SRVLWLYH GLUHFW HIIHFWV DQG OLQNV HQGLQJ LQ D ÀOOHG FLUFOH UHSUHVHQW
QHJDWLYH GLUHFW HIIHFWV ,Q WKH HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ FDWFKHV RI QHDUVKRUH
SHODJLFÀVKDUHSURMHFWHGWREHSRVLWLYHDFURVVWKHUHJLRQEXWDUHH[SHFWHGWREHQHJDWLYH
LQ WKH ZHVWHUQ 3DFLÀF E\ DV GHQRWHG E\ WKH GDVKHG OLQH 7KH WZR WKLQEOXH OLQHG
OLQNVLQGLFDWHWKDWÀVKLQJHIIRUWKDVDQHJOLJLEOHHIIHFWRQWKHWXQDVWRFNVWKDWFRPSULVH
PXFK RI WKH QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVKHU\ 1RWH WKDW LQ PRGHO DQDO\VHV HDFK YDULDEOH ZDV
JLYHQDQHJDWLYHVHOIHIIHFWVHH$SSHQGL[IRUIXUWKHUGHWDLOV
7KH HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WKH YDULRXV UHODWLRQVKLSV ZLWKLQ WKH PRGHO DUH
H[SHFWHGWR
y GHFUHDVH UHSURGXFWLRQ DQG UHFUXLWPHQW RI GHPHUVDO ÀVK UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKH
GLUHFWHIIHFWVRILQFUHDVHG667DQGRFHDQDFLGLÀFDWLRQDQGWKHLQGLUHFWHIIHFWVRI
GHJUDGDWLRQRIFRUDOUHHIVPDQJURYHVDQGVHDJUDVVHVH[DFHUEDWHGE\SRRUFRDVWDO
GHYHORSPHQW&KDSWHUVDQG
y LQFUHDVH WKH DEXQGDQFH RI QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVK WXQD WKURXJKRXW WKH WURSLFDO
3DFLÀFLQUHGXFHVWRFNVRIWKHVHÀVKLQWKHZHVWE\DQGLQFUHDVHWKHP
LQWKHHDVWXQWLODWOHDVW&KDSWHUDQG
839
y DXJPHQW DTXDFXOWXUH SURGXFWLRQ WKURXJK H[SDQVLRQ RI IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK IDUPLQJ
&KDSWHU
7KHSHUWXUEDWLRQVWRWKHPRGHOKXPDQSRSXODWLRQJURZWKKDELWDWGHJUDGDWLRQDQG
FOLPDWHFKDQJHZHUHDSSOLHGGLIIHUHQWO\IRUWKHHDVWHUQDQGZHVWHUQ3DFLÀFLQ
DQGEHFDXVHKXPDQSRSXODWLRQVDUHSUHGLFWHGWRLQFUHDVHVXEVWDQWLDOO\RQO\LQ
WKHZHVW&KDSWHUVDQGDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJHLVSURMHFWHGWRKDYHGLIIHUHQWHIIHFWV
RQQHDUVKRUHSHODJLFÀVKLQWKHVHWZRSDUWVRIWKHUHJLRQ&KDSWHU
7KHWRWDOQXPEHURISRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHHIIHFWVRQIRRGVHFXULW\JHQHUDWHGIURPWKH
SHUWXUEDWLRQVGXHWRSRSXODWLRQJURZWKDQGKDELWDWGHJUDGDWLRQLQGLFDWHWKDW
WKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIFDWFKWRIRRGVHFXULW\LQWKHZHVWHUQ3DFLÀFLVJHQHUDOO\OLNHO\
WREHORZHUWKDQLQWKHHDVWHUQ3DFLÀFGHPRQVWUDWLQJWKHRYHUULGLQJLQÁXHQFHRI
LQFUHDVHG KXPDQ SRSXODWLRQV LQ WKH V\VWHP ² ODUJHU QXPEHUV RI SHRSOH KDYH D
SRZHUIXOHIIHFWRQUHGXFLQJWKHÀVKDYDLODEOHSHUSHUVRQ
WKHUH DUH QR DGYHUVH RU XQLQWHQGHG FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU IRRG VHFXULW\ LQ DQ\
FRPELQDWLRQRIWKHDGDSWDWLRQV
PRUHDGDSWDWLRQVUHVXOWLQEHWWHURXWFRPHVIRUIRRGVHFXULW\DQG
LQWHJUDWHG FRDVWDO ]RQH PDQDJHPHQW DQG WKH XVH RI )$'V FRPELQHG ZLWK SRVW
KDUYHVWSURFHVVLQJKDYHWKHJUHDWHVWSRVLWLYHHIIHFWRQIRRGVHFXULW\
$GGLQJ FOLPDWH FKDQJH DV DQRWKHU SHUWXUEDWLRQ GRHV QRW FKDQJH WKH JHQHUDOLW\ RI
WKHVH FRQFOXVLRQV EXW WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FOLPDWH PDNH LW KDUGHU IRU WKHVH
DGDSWDWLRQVWRDFKLHYHWKHLUJRDOVLQDQGSURJUHVVLYHO\PRUHGLIÀFXOWE\
7KH DGDSWDWLRQV DUH DOVR PRUH HIIHFWLYH LQ WKH HDVWHUQ WKDQ LQ WKH ZHVWHUQ SDUW RI
WKH UHJLRQ EHFDXVH WKHUH LV QRW WKH DGGHG SUHVVXUH RI ODUJH LQFUHDVHV LQ KXPDQ
SRSXODWLRQLQWKHHDVW
7KHTXDOLWDWLYHQDWXUHRIWKHPRGHOGRHVQRWDOORZIRUWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHYDULRXV
DGDSWDWLRQVWREHFRQVLGHUHGSUHFLVHO\7KLVZHDNQHVVLVEDODQFHGKRZHYHUE\WKH
DELOLW\RITXDOLWDWLYH PRGHOV WR LGHQWLI\YDULDEOHVRUOLQNVWKDWPHULWPRUHLQGHSWK
LQYHVWLJDWLRQWKURXJKRWKHUPRGHOOLQJDSSURDFKHV)RUH[DPSOH)$'VSURPLVHWR
SURYLGHPXFKJUHDWHUDFFHVVWRÀVKIRUIRRGWKDQDTXDFXOWXUH&KDSWHU0RGHOV
WKDW ZHLJKW WKH UHODWLYH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKHVH WZR DGDSWDWLRQV DSSURSULDWHO\ ZLOO
SURYLGHDFOHDUHUSLFWXUHRIWKHLUSRWHQWLDOWRHQKDQFHIRRGVHFXULW\
13.6 Planning needed to implement key adaptations
$OWKRXJKWKHWHFKQRORJ\XQGHUSLQQLQJPDQ\RIWKHDGDSWDWLRQVUHFRPPHQGHGKHUH
LVPDWXUHWKHSURSRVHGLQWHUYHQWLRQVZLOOQRWZRUNLQDOO3,&7VRULQDOOORFDWLRQV
ZLWKLQ D FRXQWU\ $GGLWLRQDO SODQQLQJ ZLOO EH QHHGHG WR LGHQWLI\ VLWHV ZLWK WKH
DSSURSULDWHELRORJLFDODQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQV7KHXVHRILQVKRUHDQFKRUHG
840
CHAPTER 13
)$'V DQG SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH WR GLYHUVLI\ DFFHVV WR ÀVK IRU IRRG VHFXULW\ DUH SULPH
H[DPSOHV ,Q WKH FDVH RI )$'V LQIRUPDWLRQ LV QHHGHG IURP ORFDO FRPPXQLWLHV WR
LGHQWLI\LQVKRUHDUHDVIUHTXHQWHGE\WXQDDQGWRLGHQWLI\ZKLFKSDUWVRIWKHVHDUHDV
KDYHVXLWDEOHGHSWKVDQGEDWK\PHWU\IRUGHSOR\LQJ)$'VWRDWWUDFWDQGWHPSRUDULO\
KROGWXQD)LJXUH6XFKLQIRUPDWLRQFDQEHXVHGWRLGHQWLI\ZKHUH)$'VFDQEH
LQVWDOOHG VR WKDW FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV FDQ UHDFK WKHP HDVLO\ XVLQJ FDQRHV RU PRWRU
ERDWV
6SDWLDOVDWHOOLWHLPDJHU\FDQDOVREHXVHGWRLGHQWLI\ZKLFKFRDVWDODQGLQODQGYLOODJHV
DUHFORVHWRVXLWDEOHVLWHVIRUSRQGDTXDFXOWXUH$YDLODELOLW\RIÁRZLQJIUHVKZDWHULV
QRWWKHRQO\IDFWRUWKDWPXVWEHFRQVLGHUHGZKHQSODQQLQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWRISRQG
DTXDFXOWXUH KRZHYHU *HRJUDSKLF LQIRUPDWLRQ V\VWHP *,6 DQDO\VLV RI VRLO W\SH
VORSH UDLQIDOO DQG IRUHVW FRYHU LV DOVR QHHGHG WR VHOHFW DUHDV ZKHUH HQYLURQPHQWDO
FRQGLWLRQV DUH OLNHO\ WR EH JHQHUDOO\ VXLWDEOH IRU FRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG RSHUDWLRQ RI
SRQGV $W WKH QDWLRQDO OHYHO *,6 DQDO\VLV RI SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ DQG DOWHUQDWLYH
OLYHOLKRRG RSWLRQV DOVR QHHGV WR EH FRQVLGHUHG ZKHQ GHFLGLQJ ZKHUH WR HQFRXUDJH
LQYHVWRUV WR EXLOG KDWFKHULHV WR VXSSO\ WKH MXYHQLOH ÀVK QHHGHG E\ IDUPHUV 6XFK
SODQQLQJLVDOUHDG\XQGHUZD\IRU)LML)LJXUH
$QDGYDQWDJHRILGHQWLI\LQJZKHUH)$'VDQGSRQGDTXDFXOWXUHKDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOWR
GLYHUVLI\DFFHVVWRÀVKLVWKDWWKHLQIRUPDWLRQFDQEHFRPELQHGZLWKWKHDUHDRIFRUDO
UHHISHUSHUVRQIRUDYLOODJHWRGHWHUPLQHWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKWKHVHNH\DGDSWDWLRQV
DUHOLNHO\WRLQFUHDVHORFDOVXSSOLHVRIÀVK&RDVWDOFRPPXQLWLHVDUHH[SHFWHGWRIDOO
LQWR RQH RI VHYHQ EURDG YXOQHUDELOLW\ FDWHJRULHV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR VKRUWDJHV RI ÀVK
EDVHG RQ DYDLODELOLW\ RI GHPHUVDO ÀVK DQG WKH SRWHQWLDO WR GHSOR\ )$'V DQG EXLOG
ÀVKSRQGV7DEOH
7DEOH%URDGFDWHJRULHVRIYXOQHUDELOLW\RIFRDVWDOFRPPXQLWLHVWRIXWXUHVKRUWDJHVRI
ÀVKGHSHQGLQJRQDUHDRIFRUDOUHHISHUSHUVRQDQGRSSRUWXQLWLHVWRLQVWDOOLQVKRUHÀVK
DJJUHJDWLQJGHYLFHV)$'VDQGGHYHORSSRQGDTXDFXOWXUH
Attributes of coastal and inshore environment
Coastal fisheries expected
to meet future demand*
Areas suitable for
FADs
Areas suitable for
pond aquaculture
Yes
Vulnerability
Very low
No
Yes
a
Yes
Very low – low
No
Yesb
Yes
Low
No
Yesa
No
Low – medium
No
Yes
b
No
Medium
No
No
Yes
High
No
No
No
Very high
%DVHGRQDUHDRIFRUDOUHHISHUSHUVRQD )$'VDQFKRUHGLQGHSWKVPDQGZLWKLQSDGGOLQJ
GLVWDQFHE\FDQRHLHZLWKLQNPRIWKHFRDVWE ERDWDQGPRWRUQHHGHGWRUHDFK)$'VDQFKRUHG
LQGHSWKVRIXSWRPZLWKLQNPRIWKHFRDVW
841
0
500
1000
1500
> 2000
Depth (m)
)LJXUH%DWK\PHWULFPDSRI(IDWH,VODQG9DQXDWX)LVKDJJUHJDWLQJGHYLFHV)$'V
FRXOGEHDQFKRUHGLQGHSWKVRI²PWRLQFUHDVHDFFHVVWRWXQDIRUERWKVXEVLVWHQFH
DQGVPDOOVFDOHFRPPHUFLDOÀVKHUVVRXUFH.UXJHUHWDO
)LJXUH 0DS RI 9LWL /HYX ,VODQG )LML VKRZLQJ DUHDV ZLWK VRLOV VXLWDEOH IRU
DTXDFXOWXUHSRQGVWKHDUHDVRIJUHDWHVWSRSXODWLRQWKHORFDWLRQRIVXJDUFDQHIDUPLQJ
WKHIUHVKZDWHUULYHUVDQGWKHORFDWLRQVRIH[LVWLQJSRQGVIRU1LOHWLODSLD7KLVLQIRUPDWLRQ
FDQEHXVHGWRLQIRUPGHFLVLRQVDERXWZKHUHWRORFDWHDGGLWLRQDOSRQGVDQGWKHKDWFKHULHV
QHHGHGWRVXSSO\MXYHQLOHÀVKVRXUFH&KDJQDXG
842
CHAPTER 13
8QGHUVWDQGLQJ ZKHUH DQG KRZ WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\ RI FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV WR
VKRUWDJHV RI ÀVK FDQ EH UHGXFHG E\ GLYHUVLI\LQJ SURGXFWLRQ ZLOO QRW RQO\ KHOS
EXLOG UHVLOLHQFH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH LW FRXOG DOVR KHOS FRPPXQLWLHV FRSH ZLWK QRQ
FOLPDWHUHODWHGGLVDVWHUVVXFKDVWVXQDPLV:KHUHGLYHUVLI\LQJDFFHVVWRÀVKLVQRW
SRVVLEOHFRPPXQLWLHVDQGJRYHUQPHQWVZLOOQHHGWRSODFHPRUHHPSKDVLVRQRWKHU
ZD\V RI SURYLGLQJ DFFHVV WR IRRG DQG RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR HDUQ LQFRPH IRU H[DPSOH
GHYHORSPHQWRI¶FOLPDWHUHDG\·FURSV
13.7 The need for monitoring
7KH DGDSWDWLRQV GHVFULEHG LQ 6HFWLRQ DUH GHVLJQHG WR LQFUHDVH WKH ÁH[LELOLW\
RI LQGXVWULDO ÀVKHULHV DQG FRPPXQLWLHV WR GHDO ZLWK SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ ÀVKHULHV
UHVRXUFHV +RZHYHU WKH XQFHUWDLQWLHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH SURMHFWLRQV PDGH LQ
&KDSWHUV ² FRXOG UHVXOW LQ RWKHU RXWFRPHV 8QH[SHFWHG RXWFRPHV DUH OLNHO\ WR
QHHGDOWHUQDWLYHRUPRGLÀHGDGDSWDWLRQV
7R HQVXUH WKDW WKH PRVW DSSURSULDWH DGDSWDWLRQV DUH DSSOLHG DW WKH ULJKW WLPHV DQG
LQWKHULJKWSODFHV3,&7VZLOOQHHGWRPRQLWRUZKHWKHUFKDQJHVWRÀVKKDELWDWVDQG
ÀVKHULHVUHVRXUFHVRFFXUDWWKHSURMHFWHGUDWH3UDFWLFDOZHOOGHVLJQHGSURJUDPPHV
ZKLFK FDQ EH LPSOHPHQWHG HIIHFWLYHO\ E\ 3,&7V DQG UHJLRQDO RUJDQLVDWLRQV DUH
UHTXLUHGWRUHJXODUO\DVVHVVWKHVWDWXVRIÀVKHULHVUHVRXUFHVDQGWKHHFRV\VWHPVWKDW
VXSSRUWWKHP0RQLWRULQJLVDOVRQHHGHGWRPHDVXUHWKHVXFFHVVRIDGDSWDWLRQV
7KH V\VWHPV LQ SODFH WR DVVHVV YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG DEXQGDQFH RI WXQD
DOORZ PDQDJHUV WR PRQLWRU WKH HIIHFWV RI ÀVKLQJ DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ VWRFNV
&KDSWHU 6XFK PRQLWRULQJ LV QRW LQ SODFH IRU FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV LQ PRVW 3,&7V
KRZHYHU ZKHUH HYHQ WKH EDVLF LQIRUPDWLRQ UHTXLUHG WR DSSO\ SULPDU\ ÀVKHULHV
PDQDJHPHQWLVRIWHQPLVVLQJ7KHWKUHHEURDGFDWHJRULHVRIPRQLWRULQJQHHGHGIRU
FRDVWDOÀVKHULHVDUHGHVFULEHGEHORZ
$VVHVVPHQWVRIWKHVSHFLHVFRPSRVLWLRQDQGVL]HVWUXFWXUHRIFDWFKHVWRSURYLGH
EDVHOLQHV DQG UHIHUHQFH SRLQWV IRU PDQDJHPHQW DJDLQVW ZKLFK FKDQJH FDQ EH
PHDVXUHG 7KLV ZLOO UHTXLUH VDPSOLQJ RI FRDVWDO ÀVK FDWFKHV DW FHQWUDO PDUNHWV
LQ ZD\V ZKHUH WKH GDWD FDQ EH UHFRUGHG VWRUHG DQG DQDO\VHG HDVLO\ E\ 3,&7V
6\VWHPV EDVHG RQ GLJLWDO SKRWRJUDSK\ DQG LPDJH DQDO\VLV VKRXOG VLPSOLI\ WKLV
SURFHVV
6DPSOLQJ WR VHSDUDWH WKH HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG RWKHU VWUHVVRUV RQ
FRDVWDO ÀVK KDELWDWV DQG RQ VWRFNV RI GHPHUVDO ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV 7KLV ZLOO
UHTXLUH FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ GHJUDGHGÀVKHG DQG KHDOWK\XQÀVKHG DUHDV
DW UHSUHVHQWDWLYH 3,&7V DFURVV WKH UHJLRQ )RU ÀVK KDELWDWV VLPSOH PHWKRGV IRU
FROOHFWLQJ UHPRWHO\VHQVHG GDWD DQG JURXQGWUXWKLQJ WKLV LQIRUPDWLRQ KDYH
D UROH WR SOD\ DOWKRXJK PHDVXUHV RI FKDQJHV LQ FRUDO VSHFLHV FRPSRVLWLRQ DQG
WRSRJUDSKLF FRPSOH[LW\ ZLOO DOVR EH QHHGHG EHFDXVH RI WKHLU LPSRUWDQFH LQ
843
GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH DEXQGDQFH RI GHPHUVDO ÀVK )RU ÀVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV VLPSOH
LQGLFDWRUVRIDEXQGDQFHDQGVL]HVWUXFWXUHZKLFKFDQEHFROOHFWHGFRQVLVWHQWO\E\
GLYHUFHQVXVRYHUWKHORQJWHUPZLOOEHUHTXLUHG
0HDVXUHV WR DVVHVV WKH VXFFHVV RI DGDSWDWLRQV GHVLJQHG WR PDLQWDLQ WKH EHQHÀWV
RI ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH IRU HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH
IRRGVHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGV1DWLRQDODFFRXQWVFHQVXVHVDQGKRXVHKROGLQFRPH
DQG H[SHQGLWXUH VXUYH\V +,(6 DOO KDYH SRWHQWLDO WR SURYLGH WKH QHFHVVDU\
GDWD $VVHVVLQJ WKH VXFFHVV RI DGDSWDWLRQV IRU IRRG VHFXULW\ DQG OLYHOLKRRGV
ZLOODOVRLQYROYHPHDVXULQJVXFFHVVDJDLQVWDVRFLDOEDVHOLQHIRXQGHGRQKXPDQ
GHYHORSPHQW LQGLFDWRUV 6XFK EDVHOLQHV VWLOO QHHG WR EH HVWDEOLVKHG IRU PDQ\
3,&7V
7KH LPSHUDWLYH LV WR GHYHORS WKH QHFHVVDU\ PRQLWRULQJ WRROV DQG LPSOHPHQW ORQJ
WHUPQDWLRQDODQGUHJLRQDOPRQLWRULQJSURJUDPPHVDVVRRQDVSRVVLEOH²WKHORQJHU
WKHWLPHVHULHVWKHJUHDWHUWKHSRZHUWRGHWHFWFKDQJHDQGSURYLGHWKHLQIRUPDWLRQ
QHHGHGIRUDGDSWLYHPDQDJHPHQW
,WLVXQOLNHO\WKDWWKHHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQDTXDFXOWXUHFDQEHVHSDUDWHGIURP
RWKHU GULYHUV E\ VDPSOLQJ SURJUDPPHV +RZHYHU WKHUH LV PXFK VFRSH WR LPSURYH
WKH TXDOLW\ RI SURGXFWLRQ GDWD UHTXLUHG WR PHDVXUH WKH VXFFHVV RI DGDSWDWLRQV DQG
SROLFLHV LQ WKH DTXDFXOWXUH VHFWRU $ XQLIRUP V\VWHP LV QHHGHG IRU 3,&7V WR UHFRUG
NH\ LQIRUPDWLRQ VXFK DV WKH TXDQWLWLHV RU YROXPHV RI FRPPRGLWLHV SURGXFHG IRU
FRPPHUFLDO VDOH RU VXEVLVWHQFH QXPEHU RI IDUP XQLWV QXPEHU DQG JHQGHUEDODQFH
RI SHRSOH HPSOR\HG SDUW DQG IXOOWLPH DQG H[SRUW YDOXH 7KLV V\VWHP VKRXOG EH
GHVLJQHGWRPDNHLWHDVLHUIRUFRXQWULHVWRSURYLGHWKHLQIRUPDWLRQUHTXLUHGE\WKH
)RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV )$2 IRU WKHLU UHJXODU
¶6WDWHRI:RUOG)LVKHULHVDQG$TXDFXOWXUH·UHSRUWV
13.8 Gaps in knowledge
$OWKRXJKWKHYXOQHUDELOLW\DVVHVVPHQWVIRUÀVKKDELWDWVÀVKVWRFNVDQGWKHQDWLRQDO
HFRQRPLHVLQGXVWULHVDQGFRPPXQLWLHVWKDWUHO\RQWKHVHUHVRXUFHV&KDSWHUV²
ZHUH EDVHG RQ WKH EHVW LQIRUPDWLRQ DYDLODEOH ² WKH VXLWH RI JOREDO FOLPDWH PRGHOV
IURP WKH &RXSOHG 0RGHO ,QWHUFRPSDULVRQ 3URMHFW 3KDVH &0,3 XVHG IRU WKH
,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO 3DQHO RQ &OLPDWH &KDQJH WK $VVHVVPHQW 5HSRUW ,3&&$5
² PXFK XQFHUWDLQW\ VWLOO VXUURXQGV WKHVH DVVHVVPHQWV 7KLV XQFHUWDLQW\ LV GXH WR
WKHFRDUVHJULGVL]HVRIWKH&0,3PRGHOVDQGWKHLULQKHUHQWELDVHV&KDSWHU
DQGJDSVLQWKHNQRZOHGJHRIWKHHFRORJ\RIÀVKKDELWDWVDQGELRORJ\RIKDUYHVWHG
ÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHV
+HUH ZH VXPPDULVH WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ QHHGHG WR ÀOO WKHVH JDSV :H DOVR FRQVLGHU
WKHUHVHDUFKQHHGHGWRGHWHUPLQHKRZ3DFLÀFFRPPXQLWLHVDUHOLNHO\WRDFFHSWDQG
LPSOHPHQWWKHUHFRPPHQGHGDGDSWDWLRQV
844
CHAPTER 13
13.8.1 Knowledge needed to improve the understanding of vulnerability
13.8.1.1 Surface climate and tropical Pacific Ocean
0RUHORQJWHUPKLJKTXDOLW\GDWDRQVXUIDFHZHDWKHUDUHQHHGHGRYHUDZLGHUDUHD
RIWKHUHJLRQWRGLVWLQJXLVKDQWKURSRJHQLFHIIHFWVRQVXUIDFHFOLPDWHIURPQDWXUDO
YDULDELOLW\OLQNORFDOFOLPDWHWRODUJHUVFDOHFOLPDWHREVHUYDWLRQVDQGYDOLGDWH
DQG VHOHFW WKH EHVWSHUIRUPLQJ FOLPDWH PRGHOV IRU HDFK UHJLRQ 6XFK GDWD ZLOO DOVR
HVWDEOLVKUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQFKDQJHVLQUDLQIDOODQGULYHUÁRZRQKLJKLVODQGV
,QFUHDVHGFRYHUDJHDQGPRQLWRULQJRIRFHDQYDULDEOHVDUHDOVRUHTXLUHG,QSDUWLFXODU
WKHYHUWLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIQXWULHQWVR[\JHQDQGS+QHHGVWREHPHDVXUHGUHJXODUO\
RYHUDPXFKPRUHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHDUHDRIWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀF2FHDQWRSDUDPHWHULVH
DQG YDOLGDWH PRGHOV VLPXODWLQJ WKH UHVSRQVHV RI WKH RFHDQ WR GLIIHUHQW HPLVVLRQV
VFHQDULRV
7R LPSURYH WKH QH[W JHQHUDWLRQ RI JOREDO FOLPDWH PRGHOV VLJQLÀFDQW ELDVHV LQ WKH
&0,3 PRGHOV QHHG WR EH DGGUHVVHG 7KHVH PDMRU ELDVHV LQFOXGH WKH RYHUO\
]RQDO RULHQWDWLRQ RI WKH 6RXWK 3DFLÀF &RQYHUJHQFH =RQH ZKLFK OLPLWV FRQÀGHQFH
LQ SURMHFWLRQV RI WKH UDLQIDOO DQG ZLQG ÀHOGV RI WKH FHQWUDOVRXWKHUQ 3DFLÀF DQG
WKH ZDUPLQJ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK (162 HYHQWV ZKLFK LV JHQHUDOO\ VLWXDWHG WRR IDU
WRWKHZHVWDQGRIWHQRFFXUVWRRIUHTXHQWO\$EHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHSK\VLFDO
PHFKDQLVPVGULYLQJWKHVHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVLVQHHGHGWRLPSURYHWKHSDUDPHWHULVDWLRQ
RIFRXSOHGDWPRVSKHUHRFHDQPRGHOV
:HDWKHULVDQLPSRUWDQWFRQVLGHUDWLRQIRUFRDVWDOÀVKHUV
Photo: Franck Magron
7KHUHVROXWLRQRIJOREDOFOLPDWHPRGHOVDOVRQHHGVWREHLQFUHDVHGVRWKDWWKH\¶VHH·
3,&7V '\QDPLFDO DQG VWDWLVWLFDO WHFKQLTXHV WR GRZQVFDOH JOREDO FOLPDWH PRGHOV
DUH DYDLODEOH DQG XQGHU FRQWLQXRXV GHYHORSPHQW WR HQDEOH SURMHFWLRQV WR EH PDGH
845
IRUVPDOOHUDUHDV+RZHYHUFRQVLGHUDEOHIXUWKHUHIIRUWLVQHHGHGWRGHWHUPLQHKRZ
EHVWWRLPSOHPHQWGRZQVFDOLQJDSSURDFKHVWRSURYLGHUREXVWSURMHFWLRQVRIFKDQJHV
WR VXUIDFH FOLPDWH DQG WKH RFHDQ DW VFDOHV PHDQLQJIXO WR PDQDJHPHQW LQ 3,&7V
7KLV ZRUN LV QRZ XQGHUZD\ WKURXJK $XVWUDOLD·V 3DFLÀF &OLPDWH &KDQJH 6FLHQFH
3URJUDPPH[LL
13.8.1.2 Fish habitats
2SHQRFHDQIRRGZHEV
7KH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK FOLPDWH FKDQJH LV OLNHO\ WR DOWHU WKH DYDLODELOLW\ RI QXWULHQWV
DQGR[\JHQWKDWXQGHUSLQIRRGZHEVIRUWXQDLQWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀF2FHDQDQGWKH
SRSXODWLRQV RI SK\WRSODQNWRQ ]RRSODQNWRQ DQG PLFURQHNWRQ WKDW FRPSULVH WKHVH
IRRG ZHEV LV VWLOO SRRUO\ XQGHUVWRRG )HZ UHOLDEOH ELRJHRFKHPLFDO PRGHOV FDQ
EH OLQNHG WR JOREDO FOLPDWH PRGHOV WR SURMHFW FKDQJHV WR WKHVH IRRG ZHEV DQG
DSDUW IURP WKH +DZDLL 2FHDQ 7LPH6HULHV VWDWLRQ LQ WKH 1RUWK 3DFLÀF 7URSLFDO
*\UH &KDSWHU QR ORQJWHUP REVHUYDWLRQV RI QXWULHQW DQG R[\JHQ OHYHOV RU WKH
DEXQGDQFHV RI SK\WRSODQNWRQ ]RRSODQNWRQ DQG PLFURQHNWRQ H[LVW LQ WKH UHJLRQ
0RUHORQJWHUPWLPHVHULHVGDWDDUHDSULRULW\%HWWHUELRJHRFKHPLFDOPRGHOVZLOODOVR
SDYHWKHZD\IRULPSURYHGDSSOLFDWLRQRIHFRV\VWHPPRGHOVRIXSSHUWURSKLFOHYHOV
HJ6($32'<0²6SDWLDO(FRV\VWHPDQG3RSXODWLRQ'\QDPLFV0RGHODQG(FRSDWK
WRSURMHFWWKHHIIHFWVRIFKDQJHVLQFRPSRQHQWVRIWKHIRRGZHERQORFDODEXQGDQFHV
RIWXQD
7KHUHVHDUFKDFWLYLWLHVUHTXLUHGWRSDUDPHWHULVHWKHELRJHRFKHPLFDOPRGHOVQHHGHG
WRLPSURYHRXUFRQÀGHQFHLQVLPXODWLRQVRIWXQDFDWFKHVXQGHUDFKDQJLQJFOLPDWH
DUHRXWOLQHGEHORZ
¾ $VVHVV WKH HIIHFWV RI KLJKHU DWPRVSKHULF FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI &2 RQ WKH FDUERQ
WRQLWURJHQ UDWLR RI RUJDQLF PDWWHU LQ WKH RFHDQ WKURXJK QHWZRUNV RI LQ VLWX
REVHUYDWLRQVDQGODERUDWRU\H[SHULPHQWV
¾ ,GHQWLI\ WKH VSDWLDO DQG WHPSRUDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI LURQ LQ WKH (TXDWRULDO
8QGHUFXUUHQW DQG WKH IXWXUH ELRDYDLODELOLW\ RI GLIIHUHQW IRUPV RI LURQ WR
GHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUWKHSUHVHQWOLPLWDWLRQVRQSURGXFWLRQRISK\WRSODQNWRQLQWKH
QXWULHQWULFK3DFLÀF(TXDWRULDO'LYHUJHQFH3URYLQFH3(4'&KDSWHUDUHOLNHO\
WRFRQWLQXH
¾ 'HVFULEH WKH YDULDELOLW\ LQ DEXQGDQFH RI PLFURQHNWRQ DQG IDFWRUV GULYLQJ
WKLV YDULDELOLW\ 7KLV LQYROYHV YDOLGDWLQJ WKH DFRXVWLF PHWKRGV XVHG WR DVVHVV
PLFURQHNWRQ E\ FRUUHODWLQJ WKH GDWD ZLWK PLFURQHNWRQ VDPSOHG XVLQJ QHWV DQG
IURPWKHVWRPDFKFRQWHQWVRIWXQDDQGRWKHUWRSSUHGDWRUV
¾ (YDOXDWH WKH H[WHQW RI ODWHUDO WUDQVSRUW RI RUJDQLVPV IURP QXWULHQWULFK RFHDQLF
SURYLQFHV VXFK DV 3(4' WR QXWULHQWSRRU SURYLQFHV SDUWLFXODUO\ ZLWKLQ WKH
DSKRWLF]RQH
[LL ZZZFDZFUJRYDXSURMHFWV3&&63
846
CHAPTER 13
&RUDOUHHIV
7RUHGXFHWKHXQFHUWDLQW\DERXWKRZHPLVVLRQVRI&2DQGRWKHUJUHHQKRXVHJDVHV
DUHOLNHO\WRDIIHFWFRUDOUHHIVWKHIROORZLQJTXHVWLRQVQHHGWREHDQVZHUHG
¾ +RZ DUH ZDUPLQJ DQG DFLGLÀFDWLRQ RI WKH WURSLFDO 3DFLÀF 2FHDQ DIIHFWLQJ WKH
HDUO\OLIHKLVWRU\VWDJHVRIFRUDOVDQGRWKHUNH\UHHIEXLOGLQJRUJDQLVPV":KDWDUH
WKHNQRFNRQHIIHFWVRIWKHVHSURFHVVHVRQWKHZLGHUDQJHRIVSHFLHVWKDWFRPSULVH
WKHIRRGZHEVRIWKHÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHVKDUYHVWHGIURPFRUDOUHHIV"
¾ :KDW LV WKH HIIHFW RI RFHDQ DFLGLÀFDWLRQ DQG ZDUPLQJ RQ WKH UHODWLYH EDODQFH
EHWZHHQFDOFLÀFDWLRQDQGHURVLRQ"+RZZRXOGFKDQJHVLQWKLVEDODQFHDIIHFWUHHI
VWUXFWXUH"
¾ :LOO V\QHUJLHV EHWZHHQ SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ RFHDQ DFLGLW\ 667 DQG QXWULHQW
ORDGVDQGSRVVLEO\PRUHSRZHUIXOZDYHVIURPVWURQJHUWURSLFDOF\FORQHVGDPDJH
FRUDOUHHIVPRUHVHYHUHO\"
¾ :KLFK PDQDJHPHQW VWUDWHJLHV DUH OLNHO\ WR EH PRVW HIIHFWLYH IRU FRUDO UHHIV WKDW
KDYHEHHQEOHDFKHG"6KRXOGFORVXUHVWRÀVKLQJDQGWRXULVPEHSXWLQSODFHXQWLO
UHHIVKDYHUHFRYHUHG"
¾ :KDWDUHWKHOLNHO\FRQVHTXHQFHVIRUFRUDOUHHIVRIDYHU\UDSLGULVHLQVHDOHYHO
&KDSWHU"
¾ :KLFK FRUDO UHHI KDELWDWV DUH OLNHO\ WR KDYH WKH JUHDWHVW QDWXUDO UHVLOLHQFH WR
EOHDFKLQJRFHDQDFLGLÀFDWLRQDQGRWKHULPSDFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH"
0DQJURYHVVHDJUDVVHVDQGLQWHUWLGDOÁDWV
7KHUHDUHVWLOOPDMRUJDSVLQRXUNQRZOHGJHRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQGLYHUVLW\DQGFRYHUDJH
RIPDQJURYHDQGVHDJUDVVKDELWDWVDQGWKHDUHDVRILQWHUWLGDOÁDWVDFURVVWKHWURSLFDO
3DFLÀF &KDSWHU ,Q PDQ\ FDVHV HYHQ WKH H[LVWLQJ HVWLPDWHV RI KDELWDW DUHD DUH
OLNHO\WREHJURVVXQGHUHVWLPDWHV,QDGGLWLRQWRSURYLGLQJHVWLPDWHVRIKDELWDWDUHD
IRUVHYHUDO3,&7VDQGFKHFNLQJWKHDFFXUDF\RIHVWLPDWHVDOUHDG\PDGHIRU3,&7VWKH
IROORZLQJLQIRUPDWLRQLVQHHGHGWRLPSURYHRXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHYXOQHUDELOLW\
RIWKHVHKDELWDWVDQGWKHUROHVWKH\SOD\LQVXSSRUWLQJFRDVWDOÀVKHULHV
¾ 6HQVLWLYLW\ RI PDQJURYHV DQG VHDJUDVVHV WR VHDOHYHO ULVH DQG UDWHV RI
VHGLPHQWDWLRQ 0DSSLQJ GHHS PHDGRZV ZLOO KHOS LGHQWLI\ WKH VHDJUDVV KDELWDWV
PRVWDWULVN
¾ 7KH ORFDWLRQV ZKHUH PDQJURYH DQG VHDJUDVV KDELWDWV DUH OLNHO\ WR KDYH JUHDWHU
QDWXUDO UHVLOLHQFH WR WKHUPDO VWUHVV RFHDQ DFLGLÀFDWLRQ DQG WKH RWKHU SURMHFWHG
LPSDFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH
¾ 7KHFRQWULEXWLRQVRIHSLIDXQDDQGLQIDXQDWRWKHIRRGZHEVRIGHPHUVDOÀVKDQG
LQYHUWHEUDWHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKPDQJURYHVVHDJUDVVHVDQGLQWHUWLGDOÁDWVDQGWKH
YXOQHUDELOLW\RIWKHVHIRRGZHEVWRWKHSURMHFWHGHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQWKHVH
KDELWDWV&KDSWHU
847
)UHVKZDWHUULYHUVDQGHVWXDULHV
2IDOOWKHÀVKKDELWDWVLQWKHUHJLRQWKHOHDVWLVNQRZQDERXWIUHVKZDWHUULYHUVDQG
HVWXDULHV &KDSWHU (FRV\VWHP PRGHOV IRU UHSUHVHQWDWLYH ULYHU W\SHV QHHG WR EH
GHYHORSHGDQGYDOLGDWHGVRWKDWPDQDJHUVGRQRWKDYHWRUHO\RQLQIRUPDWLRQIURP
RWKHUSDUWVRIWKHZRUOG,PSRUWDQWÀUVWVWHSVDUHWRTXDQWLI\DQGPDSWKHKDELWDWV
FUHDWHG E\ ULYHUV DQG HVWXDULHV DQG WR VHW EHQFKPDUNV IRU LGHQWLI\LQJ FKDQJHV LQ
KDELWDW DUHD DQG TXDOLW\ 7KLV EDVLF UHVHDUFK ZLOO DOVR LGHQWLI\ SODFHV ZKHUH WKHUH
LVVWURQJFRQQHFWLYLW\EHWZHHQKDELWDWVGXULQJWKHOLIHF\FOHVRIPLJUDWRU\ÀVKDQG
LQYHUWHEUDWH VSHFLHV &KDSWHU ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH GLYHUVLW\ H[WHQW IXQFWLRQ
DQG FRQQHFWLYLW\ RI IUHVKZDWHU DQG HVWXDULQH KDELWDWV ZLOO KHOS DGMDFHQW ÀVKLQJ
FRPPXQLWLHV WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI WKHVH HFRV\VWHPV WR WKHLU IRRG
VHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGV
13.8.1.3 Fish stocks
2FHDQLFÀVKHULHV
,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKH QHHG WR GRZQVFDOH JOREDO FOLPDWH PRGHOV 6HFWLRQ DQG
SDUDPHWHULVHELRJHRFKHPLFDOPRGHOVZLWKEHWWHULQIRUPDWLRQRQQXWULHQWVLURQDQG
PLFURQHNWRQ6HFWLRQPRUHNQRZOHGJHDERXWWKHELRORJ\RIWXQDLVUHTXLUHG
WR LPSURYH FRQÀGHQFH LQ SURMHFWHG IXWXUH FDWFKHV VLPXODWHG E\ WKH 6($32'<0
PRGHO&KDSWHU7KHPDLQJDSVLQNQRZOHGJHWREHÀOOHGDUHOLVWHGEHORZ
¾ ,GHQWLI\ WKH OLNHO\ UHVSRQVHV RI VNLSMDFN \HOORZÀQ ELJH\H DQG DOEDFRUH WXQD WR
YDULDWLRQLQNH\HQYLURQPHQWDOYDULDEOHVLQFOXGLQJ
y RSWLPDOWHPSHUDWXUHDQGGLVVROYHGR[\JHQUDQJHVDQGWKUHVKROGVIRUGLIIHUHQW
OLIHKLVWRU\VWDJHV
y SRWHQWLDO HIIHFWV RI LQFUHDVHG RFHDQ DFLGLÀFDWLRQ RQ SURGXFWLRQ RI JDPHWHV
IHUWLOLVDWLRQHPEU\RQLFGHYHORSPHQWKDWFKLQJODUYDOEHKDYLRXUDQGIHHGLQJ
HFRORJ\ UHVWULFWHG WR \HOORZÀQ WXQD LQ WKH ÀUVW LQVWDQFH EHFDXVH WKLV LV WKH
RQO\VSHFLHVRIWURSLFDOWXQDSURSDJDWHGLQFDSWLYLW\
y LQWHUDFWLRQVDPRQJWKHHIIHFWVGXHWRWHPSHUDWXUHDQGRFHDQDFLGLÀFDWLRQDQG
y SRVVLEOH FKDQJHV LQ YHUWLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI HDFK VSHFLHV RI WXQD GXH WR
YDULDWLRQLQWHPSHUDWXUHDQGGLVVROYHGR[\JHQDQGWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVIRUWKHLU
YXOQHUDELOLW\WRFDSWXUHE\GLIIHUHQWJHDUW\SHV
¾ $VVHVV WKH FDUU\LQJ FDSDFLW\ RI WKH SHODJLF HFRV\VWHP IRU WXQD LQ WKH WURSLFDO
3DFLÀF DQG ZKHWKHU WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI VWRFNV LV FRQWUROOHG GLUHFWO\ E\ IRRG
DEXQGDQFHRUE\QRQOLQHDUUHODWLRQVKLSVVXFKDVYDULDWLRQLQIRRGDVVLPLODWLRQ
UDWHVZLWKFKDQJHVLQSUH\GHQVLW\7KHVHWDVNVUHTXLUHDJRRGXQGHUVWDQGLQJRI
y HQHUJ\ WUDQVIHU HIÀFLHQF\ EHWZHHQ DOO OHYHOV RI WKH IRRG ZHE EXW HVSHFLDOO\
IURPWKHORZHUOHYHOVWRWKHPLGWURSKLFOHYHOPLFURQHNWRQ
848
CHAPTER 13
y VSDWLDO DQG WHPSRUDO YDULDWLRQ LQ GLYHUVLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG DEXQGDQFH RI
PLFURQHNWRQDFURVVWKHUHJLRQ
y GLHWV RI WKH IRXU VSHFLHV RI WXQD DQG WKH VFRSH IRU FRPSHWLWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH
VSHFLHVDQG
y QXWULHQWULFKFRDVWDOZDWHUVDVIHHGLQJDUHDVIRUWXQDDQGWKHSRVVLEOHUHWHQWLRQ
RIWXQDLQVXFKDUHDV²WKHDUFKLSHODJLFZDWHUVXQGHUWKHLQÁXHQFHRILQFUHDVHG
UXQRII IURP WKH 6HSLN5DPX ULYHU V\VWHP LQ 31* DUH RI SDUWLFXODU LQWHUHVW
&KDSWHU
&RDVWDOÀVKHULHV
$EHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHOLNHO\HIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQWKHSURGXFWLRQRI
FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV GHSHQGV RQ LGHQWLI\LQJ WKH UHVSRQVHV RI NH\ ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWH
VSHFLHVWRSURMHFWHGDOWHUDWLRQVLQHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQVDQGKDELWDWV7KHPDLQ
UHVHDUFKDFWLYLWLHVLQYROYHGDUHOLVWHGEHORZ
¾ $VVHVV WKH UROH RI FRUDO UHHIV DQG YDULDWLRQ LQ WKHLU VWUXFWXUDO FRPSOH[LW\ DQG
ELRORJLFDOGLYHUVLW\LQGHWHUPLQLQJWKHGLVWULEXWLRQDQGDEXQGDQFHRIDVVRFLDWHG
ÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHVSHFLHVHVSHFLDOO\GXULQJODUYDOVHWWOHPHQWDQGUHFUXLWPHQW
7KLVUHVHDUFKLVFORVHO\OLQNHGWRDVVHVVLQJWKHFRPSDUDWLYHUHVLOLHQFHRIGLIIHUHQW
UHHIEXLOGLQJFRUDOV6HFWLRQ
¾ ,QYHVWLJDWH WKH UROH RI PDQJURYHV VHDJUDVVHV DQG LQWHUWLGDO ÁDWV LQ VXSSRUWLQJ
GHPHUVDO ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV SDUWLFXODUO\ WKHLU LPSRUWDQFH DV QXUVHU\ DQG
IHHGLQJDUHDVDQGWKHLUOLQNVZLWKFRUDOUHHIV:HDOVRQHHGWRNQRZZKHWKHUÀVK
DQGLQYHUWHEUDWHVXVHWKHVHKDELWDWVVHTXHQWLDOO\DVWKH\JURZDQGZKHWKHUWKH
MX[WDSRVLWLRQRIKDELWDWVZLWKLQWKHPRVDLFVWKH\IRUPDIIHFWVÀVKHULHVSURGXFWLRQ
¾ $VVHVV WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ DQG DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\ RI NH\ GHPHUVDO ÀVK VSHFLHV DQG
LQYHUWHEUDWHV WR FKDQJHV LQ 667 DQG S+ LQFOXGLQJ WKH HIIHFWV RQ HDUO\ OLIH
KLVWRU\VWDJHVDQGWKHFRPELQHGHIIHFWVRIWKHVHYDULDEOHVDQGWKHLULQWHUDFWLRQV
ZLWKRWKHUDQWKURSRJHQLFVWUHVVRUV
¾ 0RGHO WKH HIIHFWV RQ ODUYDO GLVSHUVDO RI GHFUHDVHV LQ WKH VWUHQJWK RI WKH 6RXWK
(TXDWRULDO&XUUHQWDQGWKH6RXWK(TXDWRULDO&RXQWHU&XUUHQW&KDSWHU
¾ 'HWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU D OLQN H[LVWV EHWZHHQ WKH ULVN RI FLJXDWHUD ÀVK SRLVRQLQJ
DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH ,Q SDUWLFXODU ZKHWKHU SRSXODWLRQV RI WKH WR[LF PLFURDOJDH
*DPELHUGLVFXV VSS DUH DIIHFWHG E\ WKH GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI FRUDO UHHIV DQG ZKHWKHU
WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ 667 DUH OLNHO\ WR DOWHU WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RFFXUUHQFH DQG
YLUXOHQFHRIFLJXDWHUD
¾ (VWLPDWHWKHULVNVRIDQ\DOWHUDWLRQLQWKHLQFLGHQFHRIRWKHUKDUPIXOPDULQHDOJDH
FDXVHGE\FOLPDWHFKDQJHWRFRDVWDOÀVKHULHVDQGFRPPXQLWLHVWKDWUHO\RQFRDVWDO
ÀVKIRUIRRG
849
¾ (YDOXDWHWKHOLNHO\HIIHFWVRIKLJKHUOHYHOVRIQXWULHQWVIURPWKHSURMHFWHGLQFUHDVHV
LQUXQRIIDURXQGKLJKLVODQGVLQWURSLFDO0HODQHVLDRQWKHSURGXFWLYLW\RIVPDOO
SHODJLFÀVKVSHFLHV
¾ $VVHVVWKHYXOQHUDELOLW\WRFOLPDWHFKDQJHRIGHHSZDWHUGHPHUVDOVSHFLHVWDNHQ
E\FRDVWDOÀVKHULHVHVSHFLDOO\VQDSSHUVDQGJURXSHUV
7URSLFDOVQDSSHUVDQLPSRUWDQWSDUWRIWKHFRDVWDOÀVKFDWFK
Photo: SPC collection
)UHVKZDWHUDQGHVWXDULQHÀVKHULHV
7RLQFUHDVHFRQÀGHQFHLQWKHYXOQHUDELOLW\RIWKHVHSRRUO\XQGHUVWRRGÀVKHULHVEDVLF
UHVHDUFKLVQHHGHGRQWKHELRORJ\RIWKHPDLQVSHFLHVSDUWLFXODUO\WKHZD\WKH\XVH
YDULRXVKDELWDWVDWGLIIHUHQWVWDJHVRIWKHLUOLIHF\FOHVDQGWKHLUUHVSRQVHVWRFKDQJHV
LQ KDELWDW DYDLODELOLW\ DQG TXDOLW\ ,W LV DOVR LPSRUWDQW WR XQGHUVWDQG LQWHUDFWLRQV
DPRQJ ÀVK VSHFLHV LQFOXGLQJ LQWURGXFHG DQG LQYDVLYH VSHFLHV DQG WR GHWHUPLQH
ZKHWKHUVXFKLQWHUDFWLRQVDUHOLNHO\WREHDIIHFWHGE\WKHSURMHFWHGFKDQJHVWRZDWHU
WHPSHUDWXUHDQGÁRZUDWHV&KDSWHU5HVHDUFKRQÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHVWKDWDUH
H[SRVHG WR D ZLGHU UDQJH RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH HIIHFWV EHFDXVH WKH\ PLJUDWH EHWZHHQ
IUHVKZDWHUDQGWKHVHDLVDSULRULW\
13.8.1.4 Aquaculture
3RQGDTXDFXOWXUH
,Q DGGLWLRQ WR DQ\ PRGLÀFDWLRQV QHHGHG WR DGDSW WKH ZHOOHVWDEOLVKHG PHWKRGV IRU
SRQGDTXDFXOWXUHIRUWKHUHJLRQ&KDSWHURWKHUUHVHDUFKDFWLYLWLHVDUHUHTXLUHG
WR DVVLVW 3,&7V WR HYDOXDWH ZKHWKHU SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH LV OLNHO\ WR EH HQKDQFHG
850
CHAPTER 13
DV D UHVXOW RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG LGHQWLI\ DQ\ SRVVLEOH GLVDGYDQWDJHV RI SRQG
DTXDFXOWXUH DV D ZD\ RI LQFUHDVLQJ DFFHVV WR ÀVK 7KHVH UHVHDUFK DFWLYLWLHV DUH
RXWOLQHGEHORZ
¾ &RXSOH JOREDO FOLPDWH PRGHOV WR WKH OHYHO RI ULYHU FDWFKPHQWV VR WKDW SODQQHUV
PDQDJHUV DQG VWDNHKROGHUV FDQ FRPELQH WKLV LQIRUPDWLRQ ZLWK *,6 GDWD
6HFWLRQWRLGHQWLI\DUHDVPRVWOLNHO\WREHVXLWDEOHIRUSRQGDTXDFXOWXUHLQ
WKHIXWXUH
¾ (YDOXDWH DQ\ SRWHQWLDO LPSDFWV RI 1LOH WLODSLD LQWURGXFHG IRU SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH
RQ IUHVKZDWHU ELRGLYHUVLW\ 7KLV UHVHDUFK QHHGV WR EH GHVLJQHG WR HQVXUH WKDW
DQ\ HIIHFWV RI HVFDSHG ÀVK RQ ELRGLYHUVLW\ DUH QRW FRQIRXQGHG ZLWK DOWHUDWLRQV
WR IUHVKZDWHU KDELWDWV FDXVHG E\ SRRU PDQDJHPHQW RI FDWFKPHQWV &KDSWHU %HFDXVH 0R]DPELTXH WLODSLD DUH ZHOO HVWDEOLVKHG WKURXJKRXW WKH UHJLRQ LW ZLOO
DOVREHLPSRUWDQWWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHU1LOHWLODSLDWKDWHVFDSHIURPSRQGVDUH
OLNHO\WRKDYHDQ\LPSDFWRQELRGLYHUVLW\RYHUDQGDERYHDQ\HIIHFWVDWWULEXWHGWR
0R]DPELTXHWLODSLD
¾ ,GHQWLI\WKHOLNHOLKRRGWKDWZDUPHUDQGZHWWHUFRQGLWLRQVPD\LQFUHDVHWKHULVNV
SRVHGWRSRQGDTXDFXOWXUHE\GLVHDVH&KDSWHU
¾ $VVHVV ZKHWKHU IUHVKZDWHU DTXDFXOWXUH SRQGV LQFUHDVH KDELWDW IRU PDODULD
PRVTXLWRHV$QRSKHOHVVSSDQGLIVRLGHQWLI\KRZSRQGVFRXOGEHPDQDJHGWR
UHGXFHWKHULVN
&RPPRGLWLHVIRUOLYHOLKRRGV
5HVHDUFKLVQHHGHGWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUFRDVWDOKDELWDWVLQWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀFZLOO
FRQWLQXHWREHVXLWDEOHIRUWKHSURGXFWLRQRIDTXDFXOWXUHFRPPRGLWLHVIRUOLYHOLKRRGV
LQWKHIDFHRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KHPDLQUHVHDUFKWDVNVDUHVXPPDULVHGEHORZ
¾ $VVHVV ZKHWKHU WKH WHPSHUDWXUH ÁXFWXDWLRQV GXULQJ WKH VKRUW ¶VSULQJ· DQG
¶DXWXPQ·VHDVRQVLQ1HZ&DOHGRQLDWKDWFDXVHPRUWDOLW\RIVKULPSDUHOLNHO\WREH
UHGXFHGRUDFFHQWXDWHGLQWKHIXWXUH
¾ (YDOXDWH WKH VFRSH IRU H[WHQGLQJ VHDZHHG IDUPLQJ WR 9DQXDWX DV WHPSHUDWXUHV
ZDUP ,I LW LV FRQVLGHUHG WHFKQLFDOO\ IHDVLEOH JHQGHUEDVHG VRFLRHFRQRPLF
UHVHDUFKZLOOEHQHHGHGWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUWKHUHODWLYHO\ORZLQFRPHVLQYROYHG
DUH OLNHO\ WR PHHW WKH H[SHFWDWLRQV RI FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV DQG UHVXOW LQ
VXIÀFLHQW SURGXFWLRQ WR ZDUUDQW HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI HQWHUSULVHV WR H[SRUW WKH
SURGXFWV
¾ 'HWHUPLQHWKHOLNHO\HIIHFWVRIRFHDQDFLGLÀFDWLRQRQVXUYLYDORISHDUOR\VWHUV
DQGIRUPDWLRQRIKLJKTXDOLW\SHDUOVUHFUXLWPHQWRIPLONÀVKSRVWODUYDHXVHG
WRVWRFNSRQGVDQGÀWQHVVRIVHDFXFXPEHUVUHOHDVHGLQVHDUDQFKLQJSURMHFWV
GXHWRHIIHFWVRQWKHVL]HDQGVWUHQJWKRIVSLFXOHV,IDFLGLÀFDWLRQKDVVLJQLÀFDQW
HIIHFWV RQ SHDUO TXDOLW\ UHVHDUFK ZLOO EH QHHGHG WR LGHQWLI\ ZKHWKHU PLFURVLWHV
851
H[LVWZKHUHWKHEXIIHULQJHIIHFWVRIQHDUE\FRUDOUHHIVPDFURDOJDHDQGVHDJUDVVHV
&KDSWHUVDQGPDLQWDLQDUDJRQLWHVDWXUDWLRQOHYHOVZLWKLQWKHOLPLWVUHTXLUHG
E\SHDUOR\VWHUVWRSURGXFHKLJKTXDOLW\QDFUH
¾ $VFHUWDLQZKHWKHUSDWKRJHQVDIIHFWLQJWKHSHDUODQGVKULPSLQGXVWULHVDUHOLNHO\
WREHFRPHPRUHYLUXOHQWZLWKLQFUHDVLQJZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHV
13.8.2 Knowledge needed to implement adaptations effectively
13.8.2.1 Economic analysis
7KHULFKWXQDUHVRXUFHVRIWKHUHJLRQSURYLGH3,&7VZLWKPDQ\SRWHQWLDODGDSWDWLRQV
WRPDLQWDLQWKHEHQHÀWVRIÀVKHULHVIRUIRRGVHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGV6HFWLRQ
HYHQXQGHUWKHSURMHFWHGUHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWXQDWRWKHHDVW&KDSWHU,WLVDOUHDG\
HYLGHQW WKDW ¶GRPHVWLFDWLQJ· WKH WXQD LQGXVWU\ WR FUHDWH MREV RQ ÀVKLQJ YHVVHOV DQG
LQSURFHVVLQJRSHUDWLRQVDGGVPXFKYDOXHWRORFDOHFRQRPLHVFRPSDUHGZLWKVHOOLQJ
DFFHVV ULJKWV WR ':)1V &KDSWHU +RZHYHU HFRQRPLF DQDO\VLV LV QHHGHG WR
GHWHUPLQHWKHUHODWLYHEHQHÀWVRIDOORFDWLQJDSURSRUWLRQRIHVWLPDWHGVXVWDLQDEOHWXQD
FDWFK WR VXEVLVWHQFH DQG VPDOOVFDOH FRPPHUFLDO ÀVKHUV FRPSDUHG ZLWK DOORFDWLQJ
LW DOO WR ':)1V RU GRPHVWLFDWLQJ WKH LQGXVWU\ ,Q SDUWLFXODU JRYHUQPHQWV QHHG WR
NQRZKRZWKHVRFLDOKHDOWKDQGHFRQRPLFEHQHÀWVSHRSOHUHFHLYHIURPFDWFKLQJDQG
HDWLQJ IUHVK WXQD RU VHOOLQJ LW DW D ORFDO PDUNHW FRPSDUH ZLWK WKH EHQHÀWV SHRSOH
UHFHLYHYLDQDWLRQDOUHYHQXHIURPOLFHQFHIHHVRUIURPMREVLQWKHWXQDLQGXVWU\
3URYLGHG VXFK DQDO\VLV HQFRPSDVVHV WKH HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK RQ ORFDO
GHPDQG IRU ÀVK DQG WKH HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WKH SURMHFWHG DYDLODELOLW\ RI
WXQDLWVKRXOGDLG3,&7VWRRSWLPLVHIXWXUHEHQHÀWVIURPWKHLUWXQDUHVRXUFHVDQG
LGHQWLI\WKHEHVWZD\VWRSURYLGHDFFHVVWRWKHÀVKRURWKHUDQLPDOSURWHLQQHHGHG
IRU IRRG VHFXULW\ &KDSWHU 7KH UHVXOWV DUH H[SHFWHG WR GLIIHU DPRQJ 3,&7V
GHSHQGLQJRQWKHHVWLPDWHGVXVWDLQDEOHFDWFKHVRIWXQDIURPWKHLU((=VWKHVL]HRI
WKHLU SRSXODWLRQV WKHLU FDSDFLW\ WR GRPHVWLFDWH ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV
DQGRWKHURSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUSHRSOHWRHDUQLQFRPH
13.8.2.2 Social dimensions
&RQVLGHUDEOHJDSVLQNQRZOHGJHVWLOOH[LVWDERXWKRZ3DFLÀFFRPPXQLWLHVDUHOLNHO\
WR HPEUDFH WKH UHFRPPHQGHG DGDSWDWLRQV DQG WKH QHHG IRU FKDQJH /HDUQLQJ WR
FDWFKRUSURGXFHÀVKLQQHZZD\VDQGWRHDWGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIÀVKDUHLPSRUWDQW
DGMXVWPHQWVIRUFRPPXQLWLHVWRPDNHLQSUHSDUDWLRQIRUWKHWLPHVDKHDG5HVHDUFK
LV QHHGHG WR JDXJH WKH ZLOOLQJQHVV RI SHRSOH WR PDNH WKHVH FKDQJHV DQG KRZ WR
DVVLVW WKHP ZKHUH QHFHVVDU\ 7KH WUDGLWLRQDO VRFLDO PHFKDQLVPV XVHG E\ 3DFLÀF
SHRSOH WR UHVSRQG WR H[WUHPH HYHQWV VXFK DV WURSLFDO F\FORQHV DQG GURXJKWV
6HFWLRQ VKRXOG SUHGLVSRVH WKHP WR PDNH D VPRRWK WUDQVLWLRQ WR WKH
UHFRPPHQGHG DGDSWDWLRQV %XW VXFK UHVSRQVHV VKRXOG QRW EH DVVXPHG 7KH
852
CHAPTER 13
VXLWDELOLW\RIWKHVHWUDGLWLRQVIRUWKHSURMHFWHGFKDQJHVLQWKHSURGXFWLRQRIÀVKHULHV
DQGDTXDFXOWXUHXQGHUWKH$HPLVVLRQVVFHQDULRQHHGVWREHH[DPLQHG
13.9 Investments required
7RPDLQWDLQWKHLPSRUWDQWFRQWULEXWLRQVRIÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHWRWKHUHJLRQ
LQYHVWPHQWVE\3,&7VDQGWKHLUGHYHORSPHQWSDUWQHUVDUHUHTXLUHGDWVHYHUDOOHYHOV
,QSDUWLFXODULQYHVWPHQWVDUHQHHGHGWR
ODXQFK WKH DGDSWDWLRQV 6HFWLRQ WKDW 3,&7V VHH DV SULRULWLHV IRU HFRQRPLF
JURZWKJRYHUQPHQWUHYHQXHIRRGVHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGVWRDGGUHVVWKHWKUHDWV
DQG RSSRUWXQLWLHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG WR DFFRPPRGDWH RWKHU
GULYHUV6HFWLRQ
ÀOOWKHJDSVLQNQRZOHGJHUHTXLUHGWRLPSURYHRXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIYXOQHUDELOLW\
VWUHQJWKHQWKHSDUWQHUVKLSVQHHGHGWRLPSOHPHQWDGDSWDWLRQVHIIHFWLYHO\DQGÀOO
WKHJDSVLQNQRZOHGJHDQG
PRQLWRUWKHSURMHFWHGHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHDQG
WKHVXFFHVVRIDGDSWDWLRQV
%HFDXVHWKLVYXOQHUDELOLW\DVVHVVPHQWKDVEHHQGHVLJQHGWRSURYLGHJXLGDQFHPDLQO\
DW WKH QDWLRQDO OHYHO LQYHVWPHQWV DUH DOVR QHHGHG WR ¶ORFDOLVH· WKH UHVXOWV WR DVVLVW
FRPPXQLWLHVWRHYDOXDWHWKHLUYXOQHUDELOLW\DQGDGDSWDFFRUGLQJO\
$FRPPXQLW\ÀVKLQJRYHUVDQGÁDWV)UHQFK3RO\QHVLD
Photo: Jack Fields
853
13.9.1 Investments to implement adaptations
7KHDGDSWDWLRQVUHFRPPHQGHGLQ6HFWLRQWRUHGXFHWKHWKUHDWVSRVHGE\FOLPDWH
FKDQJHWRFRQWULEXWLRQVE\ÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHWR3DFLÀFFRPPXQLWLHVDQGWR
FDSLWDOLVHRQWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVZLOOUHTXLUHWKHIROORZLQJLQYHVWPHQWV
13.9.1.1 Economic development and government revenue
¾ )XOOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKHYHVVHOGD\VFKHPHIRUWKHSXUVHVHLQHDQGWKHORQJOLQH
ÀVKHULHVE\DOO31$PHPEHUVWRJHWKHUZLWKVLPLODUPDQDJHPHQWDUUDQJHPHQWV
WROLPLWÀVKLQJHIIRUWIRUWXQDLQVXEWURSLFDOZDWHUVE\WKHPHPEHUVRIWKH7H9DND
0RDQD$UUDQJHPHQW
¾ 'HYHORSPHQWRIDORQJWHUP(3$ZLWKWKH(8E\31*)LMLDQG6RORPRQ,VODQGVWR
KHOSVHFXUHIXWXUHVXSSOLHVRIWXQDIRUWKHLUFDQQHULHV
¾ (VWDEOLVKPHQW RI FRPSHWHQW DXWKRULWLHV IRU ÀVKHU\ SURGXFW IRRG VDIHW\ DQG
WKHDVVRFLDWHGWHVWLQJODERUDWRULHVRUVHUYLFHVDQGV\VWHPVIRUGHPRQVWUDWLQJ
FRPSOLDQFHZLWK,88ÀVKLQJUHJXODWLRQVLQ3,&7VZHOOSODFHGWRVXSSO\FDQQHULHV
LQWKRVHFRXQWULHVZKLFKKDYH(3$VZLWKWKH(8
¾ (QHUJ\ DXGLWV DQG HQHUJ\ HIÀFLHQF\ SURJUDPPHV IRU QDWLRQDO LQGXVWULDO WXQD
ÁHHWVWRDVVLVWWKHPWRFRSHZLWKÁXFWXDWLRQVLQRLOSULFHVDQGUHGXFHWKHFRVWVRI
ÀVKLQJIXUWKHUDÀHOGDVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWXQDVKLIWVWRWKHHDVW
¾ 6DIHW\DXGLWVIRUSXUVHVHLQHDQGORQJOLQHYHVVHOV
¾ 3URGXFWLRQ FKDLQ DFFRXQWLQJ RI DOO HPLVVLRQV IURP WXQD ÀVKLQJ DQG FDQQLQJ
SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DQG WUDQVSRUW WR PDUNHWV IRU FDUERQ ODEHOOLQJ RI WXQD
SURGXFWVIURPWKHUHJLRQ
¾ 7UDLQLQJRIZRPHQIRUPDQDJHULDOUROHVLQWXQDFDQQHULHVDQGORLQLQJSODQWV
13.9.1.2 Food security and livelihoods
¾ ,QWHJUDWHG ODQG XVH SODQQLQJ WR VWDELOLVH VRLOV DQG SUHYHQW KLJK VHGLPHQW ORDGV
IURPHQWHULQJVWUHDPVDQGUHDFKLQJWKHFRDVWLQFOXGLQJUHYHJHWDWLRQRIDUHDVLQ
FDWFKPHQWVPRVWOLNHO\WRLQWHUFHSWVHGLPHQWDQGHVWDEOLVKLQJZHOOYHJHWDWHG
ULSDULDQ VWUHDP VLGH EXIIHU ]RQHV 5HYHJHWDWLRQ ZLOO QRW RQO\ UHGXFH WKH
YXOQHUDELOLW\RIÀVKKDELWDWV&KDSWHUV²LWZLOOKHOSPLWLJDWH&2HPLVVLRQVE\
ERRVWLQJFDUERQVHTXHVWUDWLRQ3DFLÀFOHDGHUVLGHQWLÀHGVROXWLRQVWRGHIRUHVWDWLRQ
DQGIRUHVWGHJUDGDWLRQDVDNH\UHVSRQVHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHLQWKHLU¶&DOOWR$FWLRQ
RQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH·LQ[LLL
¾ &URVVVHFWRUDOFRRSHUDWLRQLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIQDWLRQDODGDSWDWLRQSURJUDPPHV
RI DFWLRQ 1$3$V WR LQWHJUDWH WKH SURWHFWLRQ DQG PDQDJHPHQW RI FRUDO UHHI
PDQJURYHVHDJUDVVDQGLQWHUWLGDOÁDWÀVKKDELWDWVDQGIUHVKZDWHUDQGHVWXDULQH
[LLL3DFLÀF ,VODQGV )RUXP 6HFUHWDULDW )RUXP &RPPXQLTXHV ZZZIRUXPVHFRUJIMSDJHVFIP
GRFXPHQWVIRUXPFRPPXQLTXHV
854
CHAPTER 13
ÀVKKDELWDWVZLWKRWKHUSODQVWRDVVLVWDOOVHFWRUVDGDSWWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQG
LGHQWLI\WKHPRGLÀFDWLRQVWRLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHHGHGWRDOORZPDQJURYHVDQGRWKHU
FRDVWDOÀVKKDELWDWVWRPLJUDWHODQGZDUGDVVHDOHYHOULVHV
3UHYHQWLQJVRLOORVVE\UHSODQWLQJJUDVV)LML
Photo: Christine Fung
¾ &DSDFLW\EXLOGLQJ RI ÀVKHULHV DJHQFLHV DQG PDQDJHPHQW DGYLVRU\ JURXSV LQ DOO
3,&7VWRJXLGHFRPPXQLWLHVLQLPSOHPHQWLQJ&($)0LQFRUSRUDWLQJSULPDU\
ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW DQG HFRV\VWHPEDVHG DSSURDFKHV WR PDQDJHPHQW RI
FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK KDELWDWV DQG VWRFNV 6HFWLRQ DQG DVVHVVLQJ
WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG WKH FRVW DQG HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI SRWHQWLDO
DGDSWDWLRQRSWLRQV
¾ 3UDFWLFDO EXVLQHVV PRGHOV DQG LQFHQWLYHV IRU WKH SULYDWH VHFWRU WR HQJDJH LQ
VWRUDJHSURFHVVLQJDQGGLVWULEXWLRQRIORZFRVWWXQDDQGE\FDWFKODQGHGDWPDMRU
SRUWVWRSURYLGHLQFUHDVHGDFFHVVWRÀVKIRUUDSLGO\JURZLQJXUEDQSRSXODWLRQV
¾ &RVWEHQHÀWDQDO\VLVRISURGXFLQJFDQQHGWXQDIRUORFDODQGH[SRUWPDUNHWV
¾ $VVHVVPHQW RI WKH IHDVLELOLW\ DQG SUDFWLFDOLW\ RI XVLQJ D SRUWLRQ RI OLFHQFH IHHV
IURP ':)1V WRRIIVHW WKH FRVW RI ORFDOO\FDQQHG WXQD IRU LQODQG SRSXODWLRQV LQ
31*
¾ 6XUYH\VWRLGHQWLI\WKHEHVWVLWHVIRULQVWDOOLQJLQVKRUH)$'VWRLQFUHDVHDFFHVVWR
WXQD IRU VXEVLVWHQFH DQG VPDOOVFDOH FRPPHUFLDO ÀVKHUV LQ UXUDO DUHDV IROORZHG
E\SURJUDPPHVWRLQVWDOODQGPDLQWDLQ)$'VDWWKHVHVLWHVDVSDUWRIWKHQDWLRQDO
LQIUDVWUXFWXUH IRU IRRG VHFXULW\ 7KLV ZLOO LQYROYH PDLQWDLQLQJ VWRFNSLOHV RI
HTXLSPHQWDWQDWLRQDOÀVKHULHVDJHQFLHVWRUHSODFH)$'VDVUHTXLUHG
855
¾ $QDO\VLVWRLGHQWLI\WKHSULPHORFDWLRQVIRUSHULXUEDQDQGUXUDOSRQGDTXDFXOWXUH
EDVHGRQLQIRUPDWLRQRQUDLQIDOODQGWHPSHUDWXUHIURPGRZQVFDOHGJOREDOFOLPDWH
PRGHOVDQGRWKHUGHPRJUDSKLFDQGQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVOD\HUVDYDLODEOHIRU*,6
¾ 1DWLRQDO DQG SULYDWHVHFWRU KDWFKHULHV WR SURGXFH MXYHQLOH ÀVK IRU SRQG
DTXDFXOWXUHVXSSRUWHGE\GLVWULEXWLRQQHWZRUNVWRGHOLYHUKLJKTXDOLW\MXYHQLOHV
WRUXUDODUHDV
¾ (YDOXDWLRQ RI WKH SRWHQWLDO PHULWV RI PLFURFUHGLW VFKHPHV DQG WUDLQLQJ
SURJUDPPHVWRHQDEOHFRDVWDOFRPPXQLWLHVWRGHYHORSVPDOOVFDOHFRPPHUFLDO
ÀVKHULHV DURXQG )$'V DQG IRU VPDOO SHODJLF ÀVK VSHFLHV H[SDQG SRQG
DTXDFXOWXUHDQGVFDOHXSSRVWKDUYHVWSURFHVVLQJZKHUHFUHGLWLVUHFRJQLVHG
DVDEDUULHUWRLPSOHPHQWLQJWKHVHDGDSWDWLRQV
¾ 7UDLQLQJ DQG FDSDFLW\ EXLOGLQJ IRU FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV HVSHFLDOO\ ZRPHQ
WR HQJDJH LQ LQFRPHHDUQLQJ RSSRUWXQLWLHV FUHDWHG E\ GLYHUVLI\LQJ IRRG
SURGXFWLRQV\VWHPVLQÀVKHULHVDTXDFXOWXUHDQGDJULFXOWXUHWREXLOGUHVLOLHQFH
WRFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGRSHUDWHVPDOOEXVLQHVVHV
¾ $QDO\VLV RI FDUERQ IRRWSULQWV RI WKH PDLQ DTXDFXOWXUH RSHUDWLRQV DQG
LGHQWLÀFDWLRQ RI EHWWHU ZD\V WR FRQVHUYH HQHUJ\ DORQJ WKH VXSSO\ FKDLQ 6XFK
LQYHVWPHQWVVKRXOGDOVRFRQVLGHULQQRYDWLYHVWUDWHJLHVWRPDUNHWHQYLURQPHQWDOO\
IULHQGO\SURGXFWVEDVHGRQEHWWHUPDQDJHPHQWRIQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHV
13.9.1.3 Increasing participation and awareness
¾ 5HVHDUFK WR LGHQWLI\ WKH NH\ VRFLDO PHFKDQLVPV DQG GULYHUV WKDW LQÁXHQFH
SDUWLFLSDWLRQ E\ PHQ ZRPHQ DQG \RXWK LQ WKH SODQQLQJ GHVLJQ DQG
LPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIDGDSWDWLRQVWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH
¾ (GXFDWLRQDOPDWHULDOVWRDVVLVWFRPPXQLWLHVWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHFRQWULEXWLRQVRI
ÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHWRIRRGVHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGVWKHIXQGDPHQWDOV
RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH WKH WLPLQJ RI WKH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ
ÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHDQGWKHQHHGWRPDQDJHFDWFKPHQWVDQGIUHVKZDWHU
DQG FRDVWDO ÀVK KDELWDWV ZHOO WR LPSURYH WKH UHVLOLHQFH RI ÀVK VWRFNV WR FOLPDWH
FKDQJH
¾ ,QWHUDFWLYHDQGHGXFDWLRQDOFRPSXWHUJDPHVIRUFKLOGUHQWRSURPRWHOHDUQLQJ
E\ KDYLQJ IXQ DERXW YXOQHUDELOLW\ RI ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH DQG RWKHU
VHFWRUVWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHKHOSWKHPXQGHUVWDQGWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIDGDSWLQJ
RUQRWDGDSWLQJDQGDOORZWKHPWRUHFRJQLVHRWKHUGLVDVWHUULVNPDQDJHPHQW
FKRLFHVDQGRXWFRPHV
13.9.2 Investments to fill gaps in knowledge
7KH LQIRUPDWLRQ VHW RXW LQ &KDSWHUV ² GHVFULEHV RXU FXUUHQW XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI
WKH QDWXUDO DQG VRFLDO SURFHVVHV XQGHUSLQQLQJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI ÀVKHULHV DQG
DTXDFXOWXUH WR WKH ZHOOEHLQJ RI 3DFLÀF FRPPXQLWLHV DQG KRZ WKHVH SURFHVVHV DUH
856
CHAPTER 13
OLNHO\ WR EH DIIHFWHG E\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH 7KLV NQRZOHGJH LV IDU IURP FRPSOHWH 7KH
LQYHVWPHQWVQHHGHGWRLPSURYHDQGUHJXODUO\XSGDWHWKLVYXOQHUDELOLW\DVVHVVPHQW
DUHVXPPDULVHGEHORZ
13.9.2.1 Surface climate and the tropical Pacific Ocean
¾ %XLOGLQJ WKH FDSDFLW\ RI 3,&7V WR IRUHFDVW WKH ZHDWKHU DQG PDNH VKRUWWHUP
VHDVRQDOFOLPDWHSUHGLFWLRQVSDUWLFXODUO\IRUWURSLFDOF\FORQHVDQG(162HYHQWV
DQGRSHUDWHDSSURSULDWHZDUQLQJV\VWHPVIRUVHYHUHZHDWKHUHYHQWVDQGRWKHU
SRWHQWLDOQDWXUDOFDWDVWURSKHVHDUWKTXDNHVDQGWVXQDPLV
¾ &RQVWUXFWLQJ DGGLWLRQDO ZHDWKHU VWDWLRQV WKURXJKRXW WKH UHJLRQ WR PDNH ORQJ
WHUPKLJKTXDOLW\VXUIDFHZHDWKHUREVHUYDWLRQVWRDVVLVW3,&7VWRGHWHFWWKH
QDWXUHDQGVLJQLÀFDQFHRIFKDQJLQJFOLPDWHVOLQNUHOHYDQWLVODQGVFDOHZHDWKHU
SDWWHUQVWRODUJHUVFDOHFOLPDWHREVHUYDWLRQVDQGUHODWHFKDQJHVLQUDLQIDOOWR
YDULDWLRQVLQORFDOULYHUÁRZVDQGJURXQGZDWHUUHJLPHV
¾ 'HYHORSLQJ KLJKHUUHVROXWLRQ SK\VLFDO JOREDO FOLPDWH PRGHOV WKDW DGGUHVV
H[LVWLQJ ELDVHV LQ WKH SRVLWLRQ RI WKH 6RXWK 3DFLÀF &RQYHUJHQFH =RQH DQG WKH
VSDWLDODQGWHPSRUDOVWUXFWXUHRI(162DQGDUHFDSDEOHRISURMHFWLQJFKDQJHV
WR WKH IUHTXHQF\ DQG LQWHQVLW\ RI (162 HYHQWV DQG WURSLFDO F\FORQHV 7KHVH
GRZQVFDOHG PRGHOV DUH QHHGHG WR SURYLGH D EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH OLNHO\
FKDQJHVWRWKHVXUIDFHDUHDDQGVWUXFWXUHRIWKH:DUP3RRODQG3(4'ZKLFKDUH
RIJUHDWVLJQLÀFDQFHWRWKHGLVWULEXWLRQDQGDEXQGDQFHRIWXQD
13.9.2.2 Oceanic fisheries
¾ ([SDQVLRQ RI WKH 6($32'<0 PRGHO XVHG WR HVWLPDWH WXQD FDWFKHV XQGHU
GLIIHUHQW FOLPDWH FKDQJH VFHQDULRV WR OLQN KLJKHUUHVROXWLRQ SK\VLFDO JOREDO
FOLPDWHPRGHOVWREHWWHUELRJHRFKHPLFDOPRGHOVVHHEHORZDQGLQFRUSRUDWH
VRFLRHFRQRPLF VFHQDULRV OLNHO\ WR GULYH IXWXUH ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW LQ WKH UHJLRQ
HJLQFUHDVLQJGHPDQGIRUWXQDIURPLQGXVWU\DQGIURP3,&7VIRUIRRGVHFXULW\
GHPRJUDSKLFFKDQJHVSURMHFWHGVSDWLDOFKDQJHVLQÀVKLQJHIIRUWDQGLQFUHDVLQJ
IXHOFRVWV
¾ 'HYHORSPHQW SDUDPHWHULVDWLRQ DQG YHULÀFDWLRQ RI ELRJHRFKHPLFDO PRGHOV
LQFOXGLQJFROOHFWLRQRIGDWDRQYDULDELOLW\RIQXWULHQWVR[\JHQS+SK\WRSODQNWRQ
]RRSODQNWRQDQGPLFURQHNWRQWKURXJKRXWWKHZDWHUFROXPQPRYHPHQWVRIWXQD
GLHWV RI MXYHQLOH DQG DGXOW WXQD DQG WKH UHVSRQVHV RI MXYHQLOH WXQD WR RFHDQ
DFLGLÀFDWLRQ7KLVLQYROYHV
y REWDLQLQJFDWFKGDWDIURPYHVVHOORJERRNVUHSRUWLQJWKHH[DFWORFDWLRQVZKHUH
ÀVKZHUHFDXJKWLQWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀF2FHDQ
y HVWDEOLVKLQJORQJWHUPPRQLWRULQJVWDWLRQVIRUSK\VLFDODQGFKHPLFDOYDULDEOHV
LQDOOSURYLQFHV
857
y DGGLQJ ELRFKHPLFDO DQG DFRXVWLF VHQVRUV WR WKH 7URSLFDO $WPRVSKHUH 2FHDQ
7$2 DUUD\ RI PRRULQJV LQ WKH :DUP 3RRO DQG 3(4' DQGRU WR WKH $UJR
ÁRDWV[LY
y FRQWLQXLQJ WKH VDWHOOLWH UHPRWH VHQVLQJ RI 667 DQG FKORURSK\OO D VR WKDW
FKDQJHV LQ WKH FRQYHUJHQFH ]RQH EHWZHHQ WKH :DUP 3RRO DQG 3(4' FDQ EH
WUDFNHGHDVLO\
y YDOLGDWLQJWKHDFFXUDF\RIDFRXVWLFGDWDLQGLVFHUQLQJWKHUHODWLYHDEXQGDQFH
RI WKH PDLQ JURXSV RI PLFURQHNWRQ VR WKDW ¶VKLSV RI RSSRUWXQLW\
ÀWWHG ZLWK
VXLWDEOHLQVWUXPHQWDWLRQFDQEXLOGXSWLPHVHULHVRIYDULDWLRQLQPLFURQHNWRQ
DORQJPDMRUVKLSSLQJURXWHV[Y
y VXSSRUWLQJ REVHUYHUV RQ LQGXVWULDO WXQD YHVVHOV WR VDPSOH PLFURQHNWRQ IURP
WKHVWRPDFKVRIWXQDDQGRWKHUWRSSUHGDWRUV
y WDJJLQJSURJUDPPHVIRUDOOIRXUVSHFLHVRIWXQDERWKZLWKFRQYHQWLRQDODQG
HOHFWURQLF WDJV WR YHULI\ SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ WKHLU GLVWULEXWLRQV LQ UHVSRQVH
WRDOWHUHGQXWULHQWVZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHVFXUUHQWVDQGR[\JHQOHYHOVLQFOXGLQJ
PRYHPHQWVLQDUFKLSHODJLFZDWHUVDQG
y DVVHVVLQJ WKH HIIHFWV RI RFHDQ DFLGLÀFDWLRQ RQ UHFUXLWPHQW VXFFHVV RI WXQD
ODUYDH
¾ 5HJXODU DVVHVVPHQWV RI WKH SURMHFWHG FDWFKHV RI DOO IRXU VSHFLHV RI WXQD
XQGHU VHOHFWHG FOLPDWH FKDQJH VFHQDULRV HYHU\ ² \HDUV XVLQJ WKH HQKDQFHG
6($32'<0 PRGHO WR LQIRUP UHJLRQDO DQG QDWLRQDO PDQDJHPHQW DJHQFLHV
$Q H[DPSOH RI WKH ÀQHU VSDWLDO VFDOH SURMHFWLRQV H[SHFWHG WR EH SRVVLEOH ZLWK
6($32'<0XVLQJLQIRUPDWLRQIURPGRZQVFDOHGSK\VLFDOPRGHOVRIWKHWURSLFDO
3DFLÀF2FHDQDQGLPSURYHGELRJHRFKHPLFDOPRGHOVLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH
13.9.2.3 Coastal fisheries
¾ 6DPSOLQJ SURJUDPPHV WR GHWHUPLQH KRZ VSDWLDO DQG WHPSRUDO YDULDWLRQ LQ
HQYLURQPHQWDOVWUHVVRUVVXFKDV667DIIHFWWKHWKUHHGLPHQVLRQDODUFKLWHFWXUHRI
WKHFRUDOUHHIVWKDWVXSSRUWGHPHUVDOÀVK&KDSWHUDQGFRUDOUHHIVUHVSRQGWR
DSSURSULDWHPDQDJHPHQWPHDVXUHVWRSUHYHQWGHJUDGDWLRQ
¾ 0RGLÀFDWLRQ RI WKH DYDLODEOH VDWHOOLWH SURGXFWV WR SURYLGH WKH ÀQHUVFDOH
PHDVXUHPHQWV NP JULG VL]H QHHGHG WR PDQDJH LQGLYLGXDO UHHIV DQG
LQWHJUDWHGDWDRQOLJKWLQWHQVLW\S+DQGWXUELGLW\ZLWK667
¾ 0DSVRIPDQJURYHVVHDJUDVVHVDQGLQWHUWLGDOÁDWVIRUDOO3,&7VWRKHOSTXDQWLI\
WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKHVH KDELWDWV WR FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ UDLVH
DZDUHQHVVDPRQJFRDVWDOSODQQHUVRIWKHLULPSRUWDQFHDQGSURYLGHDEDVHOLQH
IRUPRQLWRULQJFKDQJHVLQWKHDUHDGHQVLW\DQGVSHFLHVFRPSRVLWLRQRIPDQJURYHV
DQGVHDJUDVVHVDQGWKHDUHDRILQWHUWLGDOÁDWV
[LY ZZZDUJRXFVGHGX
[Y 6HHZZZLPEHULQIR&/,2723B0$$6KWPOIRUPRUHGHWDLOV
858
CHAPTER 13
a)
140ºE
160ºE
180º
160ºW
140ºW
120ºW
100ºW
140ºE
160ºE
180º
160ºW
140ºW
120ºW
100ºW
30ºN
15ºN
0º
15ºS
30ºS
b)
30ºN
15ºN
0º
15ºS
30ºS
140ºE
c)
170ºE
0º
15ºS
)LJXUH 6LPXODWLRQV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD GLVWULEXWLRQV LQ WKH WURSLFDO 3DFLÀF 2FHDQ
SURGXFHGE\WKH6($32'<0PRGHOXVLQJGLIIHUHQWUHVROXWLRQVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOIRUFLQJ
DQGÀVKHULHVHFRV\VWHPGDWDDDYHUDJHIRUWKHSHULRG²XVLQJHQYLURQPHQWDO
IRUFLQJDWUHVROXWLRQVRI[GHJUHHVDQGÀVKHULHVGDWDDWDUHVROXWLRQRI[GHJUHH
RU ORZHU DQG D PRQWKO\ WLPH LQWHUYDO E DYHUDJH IRU WKH SHULRG ² XVLQJ
HQYLURQPHQWDO IRUFLQJ DQG ÀVKHULHV GDWD DW D UHVROXWLRQ RI GHJUHH RU ORZHU SOXV
SULPDU\ SURGXFWLRQ HVWLPDWHV IURP VDWHOOLWH GDWD DQG F DQ H[DPSOH RI D ZHHNO\ WLPH
LQWHUYDO IURP WKH SHULRG LQ E &LUFOHV LQGLFDWH UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN WXQD
VRXUFH3DWULFN/HKRGH\
859
¾ &RQWLQXHGFROOHFWLRQRIUHOLDEOHGDWDRQVHDOHYHOULVHLQ3,&7VWKURXJKWKH6RXWK
3DFLÀF6HD/HYHODQG&OLPDWH&KDQJH0RQLWRULQJ3URMHFW
¾ +LJKHUUHVROXWLRQWRSRJUDSKLFPDSVWRLGHQWLI\PRUHDFFXUDWHO\WKHSURMHFWHG
ORVVHV RI PDQJURYHV DQG LQWHUWLGDO ÁDWV EORFNHG IURP PLJUDWLQJ ODQGZDUG E\
LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQG WKH DUHDV OLNHO\ WR EH LQXQGDWHG WKDW KDYH SRWHQWLDO IRU
FRORQLVDWLRQE\PDQJURYHVDQGVHDJUDVVHV
¾ 6XUYH\V RI WKH ELRGLYHUVLW\ UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFH DQG VL]H FRPSRVLWLRQ RI IDXQD
DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRUDO UHHIV PDQJURYHV VHDJUDVVHV DQG LQWHUWLGDO ÁDWV DW
UHSUHVHQWDWLYH ORFDWLRQV WR LPSURYH RXU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH IRRG ZHEV IRU
FRDVWDOÀVKHULHVVXSSRUWHGE\WKHVHKDELWDWV
¾ 5HVHDUFK RQ NH\ ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWH VSHFLHV KDUYHVWHG E\ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV WR
GHWHUPLQH
y KRZ WKHLU GLVWULEXWLRQV DQG DEXQGDQFHV DUH OLQNHG WR WKH FRUDO UHHI
PDQJURYH VHDJUDVV DQG LQWHUWLGDO ÁDW KDELWDWV WKDW VXSSRUW WKHP DQG
KRZ WKHVH UHODWLRQVKLSV DUH OLNHO\ WR FKDQJH DV WKHVH KDELWDWV DUH GHJUDGHG
&KDSWHUVDQG
y WKHOLNHO\HIIHFWVRILQFUHDVHVLQ667DQGRFHDQDFLGLÀFDWLRQDQGFKDQJHVLQWKH
VWUHQJWK RI PDMRU RFHDQ FXUUHQWV RQ VXFFHVVIXO UHFUXLWPHQW RI ÀVK WR FRDVWDO
KDELWDWV
y ZKHWKHU WKH LQFLGHQFH DQG YLUXOHQFH RI FLJXDWHUD ÀVK SRLVRQLQJ LV OLNHO\ WR
YDU\ DV 667 LQFUHDVHV DQG DV FRUDO FRYHU GHFUHDVHV DQG PDFURDOJDH LQFUHDVH
DQG
y WKHSRVVLEOHHIIHFWVRILQFUHDVHGUXQRIIIURPKLJKLVODQGVRQWKHDEXQGDQFHRI
VPDOOSHODJLFÀVKVSHFLHV
13.9.2.4 Freshwater and estuarine fisheries
¾ +LJKHUUHVROXWLRQHOHYDWLRQPDSVDQGÁRRGPRGHOOLQJWRLGHQWLI\OLNHO\FKDQJHV
WR ÁRRGSODLQ DQG HVWXDULQH ÀVK KDELWDWV 7KLV LQIRUPDWLRQ ZLOO DOORZ QDWLRQDO
SODQQHUV WR SURYLGH IRU LQFUHDVHG ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ ZKHQ GHYHORSLQJ FURVV
VHFWRUDOVWUDWHJLHVWRDGDSWWRSURMHFWHGLQFUHDVHVLQUDLQIDOODQGVHDOHYHOULVH
¾ 'HYHORSPHQW RI ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ PRGHOV IRU WKH )O\ DQG 6HSLN5DPX ULYHUV
LQ 31* EDVHG RQ LQYHQWRULHV RI IUHVKZDWHU KDELWDWV DQG HOHYDWLRQ PDSSLQJ
EHWWHU GDWD IRU FDWFK DQG ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW HVSHFLDOO\ IRU VXEVLVWHQFH ÀVKHULHV
DQGLPSURYHGSURMHFWLRQVRIÁRZUDWHVQXWULHQWORDGVZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHDQG
GLVVROYHGR[\JHQIURPGRZQVFDOHGJOREDOFOLPDWHPRGHOV
13.9.2.5 Aquaculture
¾ ,PSDFW ULVN DVVHVVPHQWV IRU WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RU IXUWKHU WUDQVORFDWLRQ RI 1LOH
WLODSLDIRUSRQGDTXDFXOWXUH7KHVHDVVHVVPHQWVVKRXOGSURYLGHGHFLVLRQPDNHUV
ZLWK VFLHQFHEDVHG DGYLFH DERXW DQ\ SRVVLEOH HIIHFWV RQ IUHVKZDWHU ELRGLYHUVLW\
860
CHAPTER 13
HQVXULQJ WKDW DQ\ VXFK SRWHQWLDO HIIHFWV DUH QRW FRQIRXQGHG ZLWK KDELWDW
GHJUDGDWLRQDQGDUHUHODWLYHWRDQ\H[LVWLQJLPSDFWVRQELRGLYHUVLW\WKDWFDQEH
DWWULEXWHGXQHTXLYRFDOO\WR0R]DPELTXHWLODSLD
¾ $VVHVVPHQWVRIKRZORQJH[LVWLQJVKULPSSRQGVDUHOLNHO\WRIXQFWLRQHIÀFLHQWO\
IROORZHGE\PRGLÀFDWLRQVWRRUUHORFDWLRQRISRQGVZKHQUHTXLUHGWRHQVXUHWKDW
WKH\FDQEHGULHGFRPSOHWHO\EHWZHHQFURSVDVVHDOHYHOULVHV&KDSWHU
¾ 5HVHDUFK WR GHWHUPLQH WKH OLNHO\ HIIHFWV RI RFHDQ DFLGLÀFDWLRQ RQ JURZWK DQG
VXUYLYDO RI MXYHQLOH DQG DGXOW SHDUO R\VWHUV DQG SHDUO TXDOLW\ ,Q WKH HYHQW RI
SURMHFWHG GHOHWHULRXV HIIHFWV LQYHVWPHQWV VKRXOG EH PDGH WR LGHQWLI\ PLFUR
VLWHV WKDW PD\ UHWDLQ DGHTXDWH DUDJRQLWH VDWXUDWLRQ OHYHOV GXH WR EXIIHULQJ E\
QHDUE\ UHHIV DQG VHDJUDVVHV WR VXSSRUW FRQWLQXHG IDUPLQJ RI SHDUOV DQG RWKHU
FRPPRGLWLHV OLNHO\ WR EH DIIHFWHG E\ RFHDQ DFLGLÀFDWLRQ HJ FRUDOV DQG JLDQW
FODPVIRUWKHRUQDPHQWDOWUDGH
13.9.3 Investments to strengthen partnerships
%HFDXVH PDQ\ 3,&7V KDYH OLPLWHG QDWLRQDO WHFKQLFDO FDSDFLW\ LQYHVWPHQWV DUH
QHHGHG WR GHYHORS WKH WHFKQLFDO DQG VFLHQWLÀF WHDPV UHTXLUHG WR DVVLVW 3,&7V WR LPSOHPHQWDQGUHÀQHWKHNH\DGDSWDWLRQVGHVFULEHGLQ6HFWLRQLPSURYHWKHLU
XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\ RI ÀVK KDELWDWV ÀVK VWRFNV DQG WKH HQWHUSULVHV
DQG FRPPXQLWLHV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKHVH UHVRXUFHV DQG ÀOO WKH UHPDLQLQJ JDSV LQ
NQRZOHGJH
,QWKHFDVHRIFRDVWDOÀVKHULHVWKLVZLOOLQYROYHSURYLGLQJFRQWLQXHGVXSSRUWWRWKH
VFLHQWLÀF LQVWLWXWLRQV UHJLRQDO RUJDQLVDWLRQV DQG 1*2V DOUHDG\ DVVLVWLQJ 3,&7V
WR LPSOHPHQW &($)0 )RU RFHDQLF ÀVKHULHV SDUWQHUVKLSV DUH QHHGHG WR SURYLGH
UHVHDUFKWHDPVZLWKEHWWHUDFFHVVWR3DFLÀFEDVLQZLGHÀVKLQJGDWDVHWVLHFRPELQHG
GDWDEDVHVIURP:&3)&DQG,$77&DVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQVRIVNLSMDFN\HOORZÀQDQG
ELJH\HWXQDPRYHSURJUHVVLYHO\HDVW
6XSSRUW IRU WKH FRQWLQXHG GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH *OREDO 3DUWQHUVKLS IRU &OLPDWH
)LVKHULHVDQG$TXDFXOWXUH3D&)$[YLVKRXOGDOVREHFRQVLGHUHGWRHQVXUHWKDWOHVVRQV
OHDUQHGIURPRWKHUUHJLRQVFDQEHSDVVHGRQWR3,&7VDQGYLFHYHUVD
13.9.4 Investments to monitor changes in resources and the success of
adaptations
,QYHVWPHQWVLQDYDULHW\RIPRQLWRULQJSURJUDPPHVDUHUHTXLUHGWRDVVLVW3,&7VWR
LPSURYH WKHLU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH VWDWXV RI QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV DVVHVV ZKHWKHU WKH
SURMHFWHGHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQWKHVHUHVRXUFHVDUHRFFXUULQJDQGPHDVXUHWKH
VXFFHVVRIDGDSWDWLRQV7KHVSHFLÀFLQYHVWPHQWVQHHGHGDUHRXWOLQHGEHORZ
[YLZZZFOLPDWHÀVKRUJ
861
¾ 'HYHORSPHQW RI D GLJLWDO LPDJH DQDO\VLV V\VWHP WR UHFRUG FKDQJHV LQ VSHFLHV
FRPSRVLWLRQ DQG VL]HIUHTXHQF\ RI WXQD FDXJKW E\ SXUVHVHLQH YHVVHOV ZKHUH
GDWDFDQSUHIHUDEO\EHSURFHVVHGE\FRPSXWHUVRQERDUGDQGWUDQVPLWWHGWRWKH
)RUXP)LVKHULHV$JHQF\DQG6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\YLDWKHYHVVHO
PRQLWRULQJV\VWHP
¾ 5HJXODU PDSSLQJ RI YHJHWDWLRQ FRYHU LQ FDWFKPHQWV WR PRQLWRU WKH VXFFHVV RI
UHYHJHWDWLRQSURJUDPPHV
¾ /RQJWHUP PRQLWRULQJ SURJUDPPHV WR LQIRUP 3,&7V DERXW FKDQJHV LQ
FRDVWDO ÀVK KDELWDWV DQG VWRFNV RI GHPHUVDO ÀVK LQFOXGLQJ PDUNHW VDPSOLQJ
GHWHUPLQH WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ KDELWDWV DQG VWRFNV GXH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH DV
RSSRVHGWRRWKHUGULYHUVDQGDVVHVVZKHWKHUWKHHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHDUH
RFFXUULQJDVSURMHFWHG
¾ 0RGLÀFDWLRQV WR +,(6 DQG FHQVXVHV WR PHDVXUH WKH VXFFHVV RI DGDSWDWLRQV
DJDLQVW VRFLRHFRQRPLF EDVHOLQHV LQ PDLQWDLQLQJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI ÀVKHULHV
DQGDTXDFXOWXUHWRIRRGVHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGV
13.9.5 Investments to localise the vulnerability assessment
7KHUHVXOWVRIWKLVDVVHVVPHQWQHHGWREHWUDQVIHUUHGWRWKHORFDOOHYHOE\VXSSRUWLQJ
1*2V DQG RWKHU DJHQFLHV WR DVVLVW FRPPXQLWLHV WR PDNH VHPLTXDQWLWDWLYH
HYDOXDWLRQV RI WKHLU YXOQHUDELOLW\ EDVHG RQ WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ &KDSWHUV ²
6XFK VHPLTXDQWLWDWLYH HYDOXDWLRQV LQYROYH DSSO\LQJ UHJLRQDO DQG ORFDO NQRZOHGJH
DWDFRPPXQLW\OHYHOWRLGHQWLI\DQGXQGHUVWDQGWKHVSHFLÀFVRXUFHVRIYXOQHUDELOLW\
DQG KRZ WKHVH FDQ EH PLQLPLVHG 7KLV DSSURDFK DOORZV LQWHJUDWLRQ DFURVV VHFWRUV
DQG VFDOHV WR SURGXFH HIIHFWLYH DGDSWDWLRQ SODQV ,W DOVR EXLOGV FDSDFLW\ ZLWKLQ
FRPPXQLWLHVWRLPSOHPHQWDGDSWDWLRQV
:RPHQÀVKLQJLQ)LML
862
Photo: Jack Fields
CHAPTER 13
13.10 Considerations for financing adaptations
3,&7VZLOOQHHGWRGHYRWHVXEVWDQWLDOUHVRXUFHVWRHYDOXDWHDQGLPSOHPHQWWKHSULRULW\
DGDSWDWLRQV IRU WKH ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH VHFWRU ,QYHVWPHQWV IRU PDQ\ RI WKH
ZLQZLQDGDSWDWLRQVRXWOLQHGLQ6HFWLRQQHHGWREHPDGHQRZZKHUHDVRWKHUV
PD\QRWEHUHTXLUHGIRUVHYHUDOGHFDGHV$VZHOODVLGHQWLI\LQJZKHQWRPDNHWKHVH
LQYHVWPHQWV LW LV HVVHQWLDO WKDW 3,&7V XQGHUVWDQG WKH UHODWLYH FRVWV DQG EHQHÀWV
RIUHFRPPHQGHGDGDSWDWLRQVLQFOXGLQJWKHLUVXVWDLQDELOLW\DQGVRFLDODFFHSWDELOLW\
DQGWKHRSSRUWXQLW\FRVWVRILQYHVWPHQWVUHODWLYHWRRWKHUGHYHORSPHQWQHHGVDQG
SULRULWLHV
,WLVZLGHO\UHFRJQLVHGWKDW3,&7VUHTXLUHVXEVWDQWLDOÀQDQFLDODVVLVWDQFHWRPDNHWKH
QHFHVVDU\LQYHVWPHQWV%LODWHUDODQGPXOWLODWHUDOIXQGLQJIRUDGDSWDWLRQRI3,&7VKDV
DOUHDG\EHHQSURYLGHGE\$XVWUDOLD(8)UDQFH*HUPDQ\DQG86$DQGWKH$VLDQ
'HYHORSPHQW %DQN DQG WKH :RUOG %DQN 7KH EURDGHU LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPPXQLW\ LV
DOVR SODQQLQJ WR SURYLGH VLJQLÀFDQW IXQGV GXULQJ WKH FRPLQJ GHFDGHV WR PHHW WKH
FRVWVRIDGDSWDWLRQLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVWKURXJKWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV)UDPHZRUN
&RQYHQWLRQ RQ &OLPDWH &KDQJH 81)&&& 6HYHUDO IXQGLQJ RSSRUWXQLWLHV
DUH RIIHUHG XQGHU WKH &RQYHQWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ WKH $GDSWDWLRQ )XQG WKH *OREDO
(QYLURQPHQW)DFLOLW\DQGWKH/HDVW'HYHORSHG&RXQWULHV)XQG[YLL7KH3DFLÀF,VODQGV
)RUXP6HFUHWDULDWLVSUHVHQWO\HYDOXDWLQJRSWLRQVIRU3,&7VWRUHFHLYHWKHLUVKDUHRI
WKLVORQJHUWHUPFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀQDQFLQJLQFOXGLQJWKHSRVVLEOHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRID
GHGLFDWHG3DFLÀFFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀQDQFHPHFKDQLVP
,Q FROODERUDWLRQ ZLWK WKHLU WHFKQLFDO SDUWQHUV 3,&7V ZLOO QHHG WR GHYHORS D VWURQJ
EXVLQHVV FDVH IRU DGDSWDWLRQ ÀQDQFLQJ DW FRPPXQLW\ QDWLRQDO DQG UHJLRQDO OHYHOV
7KHNH\DFWLYLWLHVLQYROYHGLQPDNLQJWKLVFDVHDUHOLVWHGEHORZ
¾ %XLOGWKHFDSDFLW\RIÀVKHULHVGHSDUWPHQWVDQGPDQDJHUVDQGQDWLRQDOSODQQLQJ
RIÀFLDOV WR H[SORUH WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH IRU WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI
ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH WR HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH IRRG
VHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGV
¾ ,GHQWLI\WKHPDJQLWXGHDQGWLPLQJRIWKHHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQWKHÀVKHULHV
DQGDTXDFXOWXUHVHFWRUDQGWKHDSSURSULDWHDGDSWDWLRQVWRUHGXFHWKHWKUHDWVDQG
FDSLWDOLVHRQWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHV
¾ 'HYHORSDFWLRQSODQVWKDWFOHDUO\LGHQWLI\WKHFRVWVEHQHÀWVDQGLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ
WLPHOLQHVIRUSULRULW\DGDSWDWLRQVLQFOXGLQJIXOO\FRVWHGSURSRVDOVIRUVXEPLVVLRQ
WRELODWHUDOUHJLRQDODQGPXOWLODWHUDOÀQDQFLQJSURJUDPPHV
¾ :RUN ZLWK WHFKQLFDO DJHQFLHV DQG FRPPXQLW\ JURXSV WR HQDEOH SULRULW\
DGDSWDWLRQV IRU WKH ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH VHFWRU WR EH HYDOXDWHG DJDLQVW
RWKHU DGDSWDWLRQ ÀQDQFLQJ QHHGV WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW WKH OLNHO\ WRWDO ÀQDQFLQJ
RSSRUWXQLWLHVDYDLODEOHIURPLQWHUQDWLRQDOVRXUFHV
[YLLZZZXQIFFFLQWDGDSWDWLRQLPSOHPHQWLQJBDGDSWDWLRQDGDSWDWLRQBIXQGLQJBLQWHUIDFH
ZZZXQIFFFLQWDGDSWDWLRQLPSOHPHQWLQJBDGDSWDWLRQDGDSWDWLRQBIXQGLQJBLQWHUIDFH
LWHPVSKS
863
¾ 'HYHORS DQG LPSOHPHQW DSSURSULDWH PRQLWRULQJ DQG HYDOXDWLRQ PHFKDQLVPV
VR WKDW WKH VXFFHVV RI DGDSWDWLRQ UHVSRQVHV FDQ EH HVWLPDWHG WR LGHQWLI\ WKHLU
VWUHQJWKVDQGZHDNQHVVHVDQGUHÀQHGWRGHOLYHURSWLPDOEHQHÀWV
7KH LQIRUPDWLRQ SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV ERRN DQG WKH FRPSDQLRQ ¶6XPPDU\ IRU 3DFLÀF
,VODQGFRXQWULHVDQGWHUULWRULHV·LVLQWHQGHGWRIDFLOLWDWHWKLVWDVN
13.11 Concluding remarks
7KLV ERRN VHWV RXW WKH VHTXHQFH RI SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV WR VXUIDFH FOLPDWH DQG WKH
WURSLFDO 3DFLÀF 2FHDQ XQGHU WKH % DQG $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV LQ DQG DQG$LQ[YLLLWRÀVKKDELWDWVDQGÀVKVWRFNVDQGXOWLPDWHO\WRWKHFRQWULEXWLRQV
RIÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHWRWKHHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWDQGJRYHUQPHQWUHYHQXH
RI 3,&7V QDWLRQDO IRRG VHFXULW\ DQG OLYHOLKRRG RSSRUWXQLWLHV &KDSWHUV ²
&RQWUDU\WRDVVHVVPHQWVIRUVRPHRWKHUSDUWVRIWKHZRUOGWKHLPSOLFDWLRQVRI
WKHSURMHFWHGFKDQJHVDUHQRWDOOQHJDWLYH
7KH GHOHWHULRXV HIIHFWV IRU 3DFLÀF FRPPXQLWLHV DUH H[SHFWHG WR EH JUHDWHVW IRU
GHPHUVDO FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV ZKHUH SURGXFWLRQ LV SURMHFWHG WR GHFUHDVH E\ LQ
DQGE\²LQXQGHUWKH$HPLVVLRQVVFHQDULR7KLVGHFUHDVHLVGXH
WR WKH GLUHFW HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ GHPHUVDO ÀVK DQG WKH LQGLUHFW HIIHFWV RI
GHFOLQHVLQWKHFRUDOUHHIPDQJURYHVHDJUDVVDQGLQWHUWLGDOÁDWKDELWDWVWKDWVXSSRUW
WKHVH VSHFLHV GXH WR JOREDO ZDUPLQJ DQG RFHDQ DFLGLÀFDWLRQ &KDSWHUV DQG +RZHYHUQRWZLWKVWDQGLQJWKHQHHGWRPDQDJHFDWFKPHQWVDQGFRDVWDOÀVKKDELWDWV
DQGVWRFNVWRVHFXUHUHOLDEOHOHYHOVRIÀVKSURGXFWLRQFRDVWDOFRPPXQLWLHVDOVRKDYH
WKHRSWLRQRIVZLWFKLQJVRPHÀVKLQJHIIRUWIURPGHPHUVDOÀVKWRWKHWXQDWKDWRIWHQ
IUHTXHQW FRDVWDO ZDWHUV 7KLV FDQ EH GRQH E\ GHYHORSLQJ WKH QHDUVKRUH ÀVKHU\ IRU
WKHVHODUJHSHODJLFVSHFLHVDQGE\LQVWDOOLQJDQFKRUHG)$'VFORVHWRVKRUHWRDWWUDFW
DQGWHPSRUDULO\KROGWKHVHVSHFLHV6HFWLRQ
7KHULFKWXQDUHVRXUFHVRIWKH:HVWHUQDQG&HQWUDO3DFLÀF2FHDQFDQDOVREHXVHG
WRSURYLGHLQFUHDVHGDFFHVVWRÀVKIRUWKHUDSLGO\JURZLQJXUEDQSRSXODWLRQVRIWKH
UHJLRQ VXSSOHPHQWHG E\ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SHULXUEDQ SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH 0RUH
HPSKDVLV RQ WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI SRQG
DTXDFXOWXUHZKHUHFRQGLWLRQVDUHVXLWDEOHDOVRSURPLVHVWRSURYLGHLPSURYHGDFFHVV
WRÀVKLQLQODQGDUHDV
7KHDVVHVVPHQWVLQWKLVERRNLQGLFDWHWKDWDGDSWDWLRQVEDVHGRQLQFUHDVHGDFFHVVWR
WXQDDUHOLNHO\WREHIDYRXUHGE\FOLPDWHFKDQJHXQWLOIRUDOO3,&7VDQGIRUWKH
HDVWHUQSDUWRIWKHUHJLRQXQWLODWOHDVW3URGXFWLRQIURPIUHVKZDWHUÀVKHULHVDQG
SRQGDTXDFXOWXUHLVDOVRH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHWKURXJKRXWPXFKRI0HODQHVLDEHFDXVH
WKHSURMHFWHGLQFUHDVHVLQUDLQIDOODQGWHPSHUDWXUHDUHOLNHO\WRHQKDQFH\LHOGVRIWKH
NH\VSHFLHV
[YLLL%DVHGRQWKHVLPXODWLRQVIRU%LQ
864
CHAPTER 13
7KHNH\FKDOOHQJHVIRUWKHUHJLRQDUHWR
UHGXFH WKH HIIHFWV RI ORFDO VWUHVVRUV RQ ÀVK KDELWDWV E\ OHJLVODWLQJ WR UHVWRUH DQG
SURWHFWFDWFKPHQWYHJHWDWLRQDQGSUHYHQWGLUHFWGDPDJHWRFRUDOUHHIVPDQJURYHV
VHDJUDVVHV DQG LQWHUWLGDO ÁDWV FDXVHG E\ H[FHVV VHGLPHQWV QXWULHQWV SROOXWLRQ
DQGSRRUPDQDJHPHQWRIZDVWH
ODXQFK ZLQZLQ DGDSWDWLRQV WR DGGUHVV WKH LPPLQHQW UHGXFWLRQV LQ WKH ÀVK
DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ GXH WR SUHGLFWHG SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK LQ
PDQ\3,&7V&KDSWHULQZD\VWKDWVKRXOGEHIDYRXUHGE\FOLPDWHFKDQJH
FUHDWH ÁH[LEOH SROLF\ DUUDQJHPHQWV WR HQVXUH FRQWLQXHG VXSSOLHV RI ÀVK WR WKH
HVWDEOLVKHGDQGSURSRVHGSURFHVVLQJIDFLOLWLHVLQWKHUHJLRQDVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRI
WXQDVKLIWVWRWKHHDVWDQG
PDQDJH FRDVWDO DTXDFXOWXUH HQWHUSULVHV SURGXFLQJ FRPPRGLWLHV IRU H[SRUW DQG
ORFDO PDUNHWV WR RSWLPLVH HPSOR\PHQW RSSRUWXQLWLHV LQ WKH IDFH RI LQFUHDVLQJO\
DGYHUVHFRQGLWLRQVGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGRFHDQDFLGLÀFDWLRQ
0HHWLQJWKHVHFKDOOHQJHVE\LPSOHPHQWLQJWKHDGDSWDWLRQVSUHVHQWHGKHUHDQGWKH
VXJJHVWHGSROLFLHVDQGLQYHVWPHQWVQHHGHGWRVXSSRUWWKHPZLOODOVRDGGUHVVRWKHU
SUHVVXUHVWKDWIDFHWKHVHFWRU6RPHORQJVWDQGLQJSUREOHPVFDXVHGE\WKHVHSUHVVXUHV
QHHG LPPHGLDWH DWWHQWLRQ IRU H[DPSOH LQWHJUDWHG FRDVWDO ]RQH PDQDJHPHQW WR
SURWHFWÀVKKDELWDWV&KDSWHUVïUHVWRUDWLRQRIVHDFXFXPEHUÀVKHULHV&KDSWHU
DQGSURYLGLQJEHWWHUDFFHVVWRWXQDIRUIRRGVHFXULW\&KDSWHU,QYHVWPHQWVLQERWK
WKHZLQZLQDQGORVHZLQDGDSWDWLRQVGHVFULEHGLQ6HFWLRQGHVLJQHGWRDGGUHVV
WKHVH SUREOHPV KDYH WKH DGGHG EHQHÀW RI PDNLQJ QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV FRPPXQLWLHV
DQGHFRQRPLHVPRUHUHVLOLHQWWRWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHFKDQJLQJFOLPDWH6XFKLQYHVWPHQWV
DUHSULRULWLHVIRUWKHÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHVHFWRURI3,&7VDFURVVWKHUHJLRQ
1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH UHFRPPHQGHG DGDSWDWLRQV UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKLV YXOQHUDELOLW\
DVVHVVPHQW DUH QRW GHÀQLWLYH 8QFHUWDLQW\ UHPDLQV DERXW WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKH
SURMHFWHGHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQWKHVHFWRUGXHWRWKHFRDUVHUHVROXWLRQRIWKH
&0,3 JOREDO FOLPDWH PRGHOV XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH FKDQJHV WR VXUIDFH FOLPDWH WKH
WURSLFDO3DFLÀF2FHDQDQGWXQDVWRFNV&KDSWHUVïDQG6RPHRIWKLVXQFHUWDLQW\
ZLOO EH UHGXFHG WKURXJK WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI GRZQVFDOHG PRGHOV E\ $XVWUDOLD·V
3DFLÀF&OLPDWH&KDQJH6FLHQFH3URJUDPPHDQGUHODWHGLQLWLDWLYHV7KHLQYHVWPHQWV
LQ PRGHOOLQJ DQG PRQLWRULQJ SURSRVHG LQ 6HFWLRQV DQG VKRXOG DOVR DOORZ
3,&7VDQGWKHLUWHFKQLFDOSDUWQHUDJHQFLHVWRH[DPLQHLQWHUDFWLRQVDQGV\QHUJLHV
DPRQJSRWHQWLDODGDSWDWLRQRSWLRQVWUDFNFKDQJHVLQWKHKDELWDWVDQGVWRFNVWKDW
XQGHUSLQRFHDQLFFRDVWDODQGIUHVKZDWHUÀVKHULHVDQGDTXDFXOWXUHDQGPHDVXUH
WKHVXFFHVVRIVHOHFWHGDGDSWDWLRQV
:HUHFRPPHQGWKDWWKHWHFKQLFDODJHQFLHVVXSSRUWLQJ3,&7VDGRSWDSURFHVVVLPLODU
WRWKDWXVHGE\WKH,3&&IRULWVDVVHVVPHQWUHSRUWVWRUHJXODUO\HYDOXDWHWKHHIIHFWV
RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WKH UHJLRQ·V YLWDO ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH UHVRXUFHV DQG
865
WKHSODQVWRXVHWKHVHUHVRXUFHVVXVWDLQDEO\IRUHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWJRYHUQPHQW
UHYHQXHIRRGVHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGV,QSDUWLFXODUWKH¶6XPPDU\IRU3DFLÀF,VODQG
FRXQWULHVDQGWHUULWRULHV·DFFRPSDQ\LQJWKLVERRNVKRXOGEHXSGDWHGHYHU\²\HDUV
ZLWKWKHODWHVWSURMHFWHGFKDQJHVWRVXUIDFHFOLPDWHWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀF2FHDQÀVK
KDELWDWV DQG ÀVK VWRFNV 8SGDWLQJ WKLV YXOQHUDELOLW\ DVVHVVPHQW RQ D UHJXODU EDVLV
ZLOODOORZWKHPDLQHFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDOLPSOLFDWLRQVWREHXQGHUVWRRGPRUHFOHDUO\
DQGWKHNH\DGDSWDWLRQVUHTXLUHGWRPDLQWDLQEHQHÀWVIURPWKHVHFWRUWREHDGMXVWHG
DFFRUGLQJO\
866
CHAPTER 13
References
%HOO-'.URQHQ09XQLVHD$1DVK:-DQGRWKHUV3ODQQLQJWKHXVHRIÀVKIRUIRRG
VHFXULW\LQWKH3DFLÀF0DULQH3ROLF\²
*LOOHWW 5 DQG &DUWZULJKW , 7KH )XWXUH RI 3DFLÀF ,VODQG )LVKHULHV 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH
3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
*LOOHWW 5 )LVKHULHV LQ WKH (FRQRPLHV RI 3DFLÀF ,VODQG &RXQWULHV DQG 7HUULWRULHV 3DFLÀF
6WXGLHV6HULHV$VLDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQN0DQLOD3KLOLSSLQHV
*LOOHWW 5 )LVKHULHV RI WKH 3DFLÀF ,VODQGV 5HJLRQDO DQG 1DWLRQDO ,QIRUPDWLRQ 5$3
3XEOLFDWLRQ)RRGDQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV5HJLRQDO
2IÀFHIRU$VLDDQGWKH3DFLÀF%DQJNRN7KDLODQG
$KPHG 0 0DFOHDQ - *HUSDFLR 5 DQG 6RPELOOD 0 )RRG 6HFXULW\ DQG &OLPDWH
&KDQJH 5HWKLQNLQJ WKH 2SWLRQV 3DFLÀF 6WXGLHV 6HULHV $VLDQ 'HYHORSPHQW %DQN 0DQLOD
3KLOLSSLQHV
63&)RRG6HFXULW\LQWKH3DFLÀFDQG(DVW7LPRUDQGLWV9XOQHUDELOLW\WR&OLPDWH&KDQJH
6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
7RPSNLQV(DQG$GJHU:'RHVDGDSWLYHPDQDJHPHQWRIQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVHQKDQFH
UHVLOLHQFH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH" (FRORJ\ DQG 6RFLHW\ ZZZHFRORJ\DQGVRFLHW\RUJ
YROLVVDUW
2(&' 7KH (FRQRPLFV RI $GDSWLQJ )LVKHULHV WR &OLPDWH &KDQJH 2UJDQLVDWLRQ IRU
(FRQRPLF &RRSHUDWLRQ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 3XEOLVKLQJ 3DULV )UDQFH ZZZG[GRL
RUJHQ
:RUOG5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH(QDEOLQJ$GDSWDWLRQ3ULRULWLHVIRU6XSSRUWLQJWKH5XUDO3RRU
LQD&KDQJLQJ&OLPDWH:RUOG5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH3ROLF\%ULHI:DVKLQJWRQ8QLWHG6WDWHVRI
$PHULFD
81'3$XV$,'7KH*HQGHUHG'LPHQVLRQVRI'LVDVWHU5LVN0DQDJHPHQWDQG$GDSWDWLRQ
WR &OLPDWH &KDQJH 6WRULHV IURP WKH 3DFLÀF 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 'HYHORSPHQW 3URJUDP 3DFLÀF
&HQWUH 6XYD )LML ZZZDGDSWDWLRQOHDUQLQJQHWVLWHVGHIDXOWÀOHV81'33&
&OLPDWH&KDQJHSGI
81 :RPHQ:DWFK :RPHQ *HQGHU (TXDOLW\ DQG &OLPDWH &KDQJH )DFW 6KHHW
ZZZXQRUJZRPHQZDWFKIHDWXUHFOLPDWHBFKDQJH
$VLD3DFLÀF )LVKHULHV &RPPLVVLRQ)$2 6HFXULQJ 6XVWDLQDEOH 6PDOO6FDOH )LVKHULHV
%ULQJLQJ 7RJHWKHU 5HVSRQVLEOH )LVKHULHV DQG 6RFLDO 'HYHORSPHQW )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH
2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 5HJLRQDO 2IÀFH IRU $VLD DQG WKH 3DFLÀF %DQJNRN
7KDLODQG
:LOOLDPV 0- 6KLQLQJ D /LJKW RQ *HQGHU LQ $TXDFXOWXUH DQG )LVKHULHV 5HSRUW RQ WKH
7KLUG *OREDO 6\PSRVLXP RQ *HQGHU LQ $TXDFXOWXUH DQG )LVKHULHV ï $SULO 6KDQJKDL&KLQDZZZJHQGHUDTXDÀVKRUJJDI
%DUFOD\.DQG&DUWZULJKW,&DSWXULQJ:HDOWKIURP7XQD&DVH6WXGLHVIURPWKH3DFLÀF
$VLD3DFLÀF3UHVV&DQEHUUD$XVWUDOLD
3DUULV+7XQDGUHDPVDQGWXQDUHDOLWLHV'HÀQLQJWKHWHUP¶PD[LPLVLQJHFRQRPLF
UHWXUQVIURPWKHWXQDÀVKHULHV·LQVL[3DFLÀF,VODQGVWDWHV0DULQH3ROLF\²
))$ 'HYHORSPHQW DQG ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI 5HJLRQDO 7XQD )LVKHULHV 0DQDJHPHQW DQG
'HYHORSPHQW6WUDWHJ\:RUNLQJ3DSHURIWKHWK)RUXP)LVKHULHV&RPPLWWHH0HHWLQJ
²0D\$ORÀ1LXH
3DUHWL6$WXQDFDUWHO",VODQGV%XVLQHVV0DJD]LQH-XQH²
867
.RPSDVV7*UDIWRQ54DQG&KH71%LRHFRQRPLFORVVHVIURPRYHUKDUYHVWLQJWXQD
&RQVHUYDWLRQ/HWWHUVï
/HKRGH\ 3 0XUWXJXGGH 5 DQG 6HQLQD , %ULGJLQJ WKH JDS IURP RFHDQ PRGHOV WR
SRSXODWLRQ G\QDPLFV RI ODUJH PDULQH SUHGDWRUV $ PRGHO RI PLGWURSKLF IXQFWLRQDO
JURXSV3URJUHVVLQ2FHDQRJUDSK\²
$OODLQ 9 1LFRO 6 3RORYLQD - &ROO 0 DQG RWKHUV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO ZRUNVKRS RQ
RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU HFRV\VWHP DSSURDFKHV WR ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW LQ WKH 3DFLÀF 2FHDQ
WXQDÀVKHULHV5HYLHZVLQ)LVK%LRORJ\DQG)LVKHULHVGRLV]
&ODUNH 6 DQG +DUOH\ 6- $ 3URSRVDO IRU D 5HVHDUFK 3ODQ WR 'HWHUPLQH WKH 6WDWXV RI WKH
.H\6KDUN6SHFLHV:HVWHUQDQG&HQWUDO3DFLÀF)LVKHULHV&RPPLVVLRQ6FLHQWLÀF&RPPLWWHH
6L[WK5HJXODU6HVVLRQ²$XJXVW1XNX·DORID.LQJGRPRI7RQJDZZZZFSIFLQW
QRGH
)LW]VLPPRQV / :&3)& %\FDWFK 0LWLJDWLRQ ,QIRUPDWLRQ 6\VWHP %0,6 :HVWHUQ DQG
&HQWUDO 3DFLÀF )LVKHULHV &RPPLVVLRQ 6FLHQWLÀF &RPPLWWHH 6L[WK 5HJXODU 6HVVLRQ ²
$XJXVW1XNX·DORID.LQJGRPRI7RQJDZZZZFSIFLQWQRGH
:LOOLDPV 3 DQG 7HUDZDVL 3 2YHUYLHZ RI 7XQD )LVKHULHV LQ WKH :HVWHUQ DQG &HQWUDO
3DFLÀF2FHDQ,QFOXGLQJ(FRQRPLF&RQGLWLRQV²:HVWHUQDQG&HQWUDO3DFLÀF)LVKHULHV
&RPPLVVLRQ6FLHQWLÀF&RPPLWWHH6L[WK5HJXODU6HVVLRQ²$XJXVW1XNX·DORID
.LQJGRPRI7RQJD
'DO]HOO 3 $GDPV 7-+ DQG 3ROXQLQ 19& &RDVWDO ÀVKHULHV LQ WKH 3DFLÀF ,VODQGV
2FHDQRJUDSK\DQG0DULQH%LRORJ\$Q$QQXDO5HYLHZ²
63& 6WDWXV 5HSRUW 1HDUVKRUH DQG 5HHI )LVKHULHV DQG $TXDFXOWXUH 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH
3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ZZZVSFLQWPUGPLQLVWHUV
0,1:3FRDVWDOÀVKHULHVVWDWXVDQQH[DSGI
.LQFK - 3XUFHOO 6 8WKLFNH 6 DQG )ULHGPDQ . 3RSXODWLRQ VWDWXV ÀVKHULHV DQG
WUDGH RI VHD FXFXPEHUV LQ WKH :HVWHUQ &HQWUDO 3DFLÀF ,Q 9 7RUDO*UDQGD $ /RYDWHOOL
DQG09DVFRQFHOORVHGV6HD&XFXPEHUV$*OREDO5HYLHZRI)LVKHULHVDQG7UDGH)RRGDQG
$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV5RPH,WDO\SS²
)ULHGPDQ.(ULNVVRQ.7DUG\(DQG3DNR.0DQDJHPHQWRIVHDFXFXPEHUVWRFNV
3DWWHUQVRIYXOQHUDELOLW\DQGUHFRYHU\RIVHDFXFXPEHUVWRFNVLPSDFWHGE\ÀVKLQJ)LVK
DQG)LVKHULHVGRLM[
3RPHUR\ 5 DQG $QGUHZ 1/ 0DQDJLQJ 6PDOO 6FDOH )LVKHULHV )UDPHZRUNV DQG
$SSURDFKHV IRU WKH 'HYHORSLQJ :RUOG &HQWUH IRU $JULFXOWXUDO %LRVFLHQFH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
/RQGRQ8QLWHG.LQJGRP
+REGD\ $- 6PLWK $'0 6WREXW]NL , %XOPDQ & DQG RWKHUV (FRORJLFDO ULVN
DVVHVVPHQWIRUWKHHIIHFWVRIÀVKLQJ)LVKHULHV5HVHDUFK²
-RKDQQHV(7KHUHQDLVVDQFHRIFRPPXQLW\EDVHGPDULQHUHVRXUFHPDQDJHPHQWLQ
2FHDQLD$QQXDO5HYLHZVLQ(FRORJ\DQG6\VWHPDWLFV²
*RYDQ+$DOEHUVEHUJ:7DZDNH$DQG3DUNV-/RFDOO\PDQDJHG0DULQH$UHDV$*XLGH
IRU 3UDFWLWLRQHUV 7KH /RFDOO\0DQDJHG 0DULQH $UHD 1HWZRUN ZZZOPPDQHWZRUNRUJ
6LWHB'RFXPHQWV*URXSHG/00$*XLGHSGI
63& $ &RPPXQLW\EDVHG (FRV\VWHP $SSURDFK WR )LVKHULHV 0DQDJHPHQW *XLGHOLQHV IRU
3DFLÀF ,VODQG &RXQWULHV 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD
7KH1DWXUH&RQVHUYDQF\%ULVEDQH$XVWUDOLDDQGWKH)RRGDQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQL]DWLRQ
RIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV5RPH,WDO\
5XGGOH.+YLGLQJ(DQG-RKDQQHV5(0DULQHUHVRXUFHPDQDJHPHQWLQWKHFRQWH[W
RIFXVWRPDU\WHQXUH0DULQH5HVRXUFH(FRQRPLFV²
868
CHAPTER 13
.XHPODQJDQ % &UHDWLQJ /HJDO 6SDFH IRU &RPPXQLW\EDVHG )LVKHULHV DQG &XVWRPDU\
0DULQH 7HQXUH LQ WKH 3DFLÀF ,VVXHV DQG 2SSRUWXQLWLHV )$2)LVK&RGH 5HYLHZ 1R )RRG
DQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV5RPH,WDO\
$VZDQL 6 &XVWRPDU\ VHD WHQXUH LQ 2FHDQLD DV D FDVH RI ULJKWVEDVHG ÀVKHU\
PDQDJHPHQW'RHVLWZRUN"5HYLHZVLQ)LVK%LRORJ\DQG)LVKHULHVï
&LQQHU-(6RFLRHFRQRPLFIDFWRUVLQÁXHQFLQJFXVWRPDU\PDULQHWHQXUHLQWKH,QGR
3DFLÀF(FRORJ\DQG6RFLHW\ï
$QGUHZ1/%pQp&+DOO6-$OOLVRQ(+DQGRWKHUV'LDJQRVLVDQGPDQDJHPHQWRI
VPDOOVFDOHÀVKHULHVLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV)LVKDQG)LVKHULHV²
&RFKUDQH ./ $QGUHZ 1/ DQG 3DUPD $0 3ULPDU\ ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW $
PLQLPXP UHTXLUHPHQW IRU SURYLVLRQ RI VXVWDLQDEOH KXPDQ EHQHÀWV LQ VPDOOVFDOH
ÀVKHULHV)LVKDQG)LVKHULHVGRLM[
*XLWLpUUH] 1/ +LOERUQ 5 DQG 'HIHR 2 /HDGHUVKLS VRFLDO FDSLWDO DQG LQFHQWLYHV
SURPRWHVXFFHVVIXOÀVKHULHV1DWXUH²
.URQHQ 0 9XQLVHD $ 0DJURQ ) DQG 0F$UGOH % 6RFLRHFRQRPLF GULYHUV DQG
LQGLFDWRUV IRU DUWLVDQDO FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV LQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV DQG
WKHLUXVHIRUÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWVWUDWHJLHV0DULQH3ROLF\²
$OOLVRQ (+ %pQp & DQG $QGUHZ 1/ 3RYHUW\ UHGXFWLRQ DV D PHDQV WR HQKDQFH
UHVLOLHQFH LQ VPDOOVFDOH ÀVKHULHV ,Q 5 3RPHUR\ DQG 1/ $QGUHZ HGV 0DQDJLQJ 6PDOO
6FDOH)LVKHULHV)UDPHZRUNVDQG$SSURDFKHVIRUWKH'HYHORSLQJ:RUOG&HQWUHIRU$JULFXOWXUDO
%LRVFLHQFH,QWHUQDWLRQDO/RQGRQ8QLWHG.LQJGRPSS²
+DOO6-&OLPDWHFKDQJHDQGRWKHUH[WHUQDOGULYHUVLQVPDOOVFDOHÀVKHULHV3UDFWLFDO
VWHSVIRUUHVSRQGLQJ,Q53RPHUR\DQG1/$QGUHZHGV0DQDJLQJ6PDOO6FDOH)LVKHULHV
)UDPHZRUNV DQG $SSURDFKHV IRU WKH 'HYHORSLQJ :RUOG &HQWUH IRU $JULFXOWXUDO %LRVFLHQFH
,QWHUQDWLRQDO/RQGRQ8QLWHG.LQJGRPSS²
)$2 )LVKHULHV 0DQDJHPHQW 7KH (FRV\VWHP $SSURDFK WR )LVKHULHV 7HFKQLFDO
*XLGHOLQHVIRU5HVSRQVLEOH)LVKHULHV)RRGDQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG
1DWLRQV5RPH,WDO\
3UHVWRQ * 7KH (FRV\VWHP $SSURDFK WR &RDVWDO )LVKHULHV DQG $TXDFXOWXUH LQ 3DFLÀF
,VODQG&RXQWULHVDQG7HUULWRULHV3DUW$5HYLHZRIWKH&XUUHQW6WDWXV3DUW3ULQFLSOHVDQG
$SSURDFKHV IRU 6WUDWHJLF ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\ 1RXPHD
1HZ&DOHGRQLD
)HQHPRU $ 0HXUN & +XQWHU * $DOEHUVEHUJ % DQG RWKHUV %HVW 3UDFWLFH *XLGH IRU
:DWHUVKHG0DQDJHPHQWLQWKH3DFLÀF,VODQGV&RUDO5HHI,QLWLDWLYHVIRUWKH3DFLÀF3URJUDPPH
6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
3RQLD % $ 5HYLHZ RI 3DFLÀF $TXDFXOWXUH LQ WKH 3DFLÀF ,VODQGV ² 7UDFNLQJ
D 'HFDGH RI 3URJUHVV 7KURXJK 2IÀFLDO DQG 3URYLVLRQDO 6WDWLVWLFV 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF
&RPPXQLW\1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
63& 63& $TXDFXOWXUH $FWLRQ 3ODQ 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\
1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
:72$JUHHPHQWRQWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIVDQLWDU\DQGSK\WRVDQLWDU\PHDVXUHV,Q7KH
5HVXOWVRIWKH8UXJXD\5RXQGRI0XOWLODWHUDO7UDGH1HJRWLDWLRQV/HJDO7H[WV*HQHUDO$JUHHPHQW
RQ7DULIIDQG7UDGH:RUOG7UDGH2UJDQL]DWLRQ*HQHYD6ZLW]HUODQGSS²
)$21$&$ $VLD 5HJLRQDO 7HFKQLFDO *XLGHOLQHV RQ +HDOWK 0DQDJHPHQW IRU WKH
5HVSRQVLEOH0RYHPHQWRI/LYH$TXDWLF$QLPDOVDQGWKH%HLMLQJ&RQVHQVXVDQG,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ
6WUDWHJ\)LVKHULHV7HFKQLFDO3DSHU)RRGDQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG
1DWLRQV5RPH,WDO\
869
63&$TXDWLF%LRVHFXULW\3ROLF\%ULHI6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\
1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
2,( $TXDWLF $QLPDO +HDOWK &RGH 2IÀFH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO GHV eSL]RRWLHV :RUOG
2UJDQLVDWLRQ IRU $QLPDO +HDOWK 3DULV )UDQFH ZZZRLHLQWLQWHUQDWLRQDOVWDQGDUG
VHWWLQJDTXDWLFFRGHDFFHVVRQOLQH
&KDUOHV $ +XPDQ ULJKWV DQG ÀVKHU\ ULJKWV LQ VPDOOVFDOH ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW
,Q 5 3RPHUR\ DQG 1/ $QGUHZ HGV 0DQDJLQJ 6PDOO 6FDOH )LVKHULHV )UDPHZRUNV DQG
$SSURDFKHV IRU WKH 'HYHORSLQJ :RUOG &HQWUH IRU $JULFXOWXUDO %LRVFLHQFH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
/RQGRQ8QLWHG.LQJGRPSS²
$OOLVRQ (+ 5DWQHU %' $VJDUG % :LOOPDQQ 5 DQG RWKHUV 5LJKWVEDVHG ÀVKHULHV
JRYHUQDQFH )URP ÀVKLQJ ULJKWV WR KXPDQ ULJKWV )LVK DQG )LVKHULHV GRLM
[
1RYDFKHFN , 0LWFKHOO - DQG 9HLWD\DNL - 3DFLÀF 9RLFHV (TXLW\ DQG 6XVWDLQDELOLW\ LQ
3DFLÀF,VODQG)LVKHULHV,QVWLWXWHRI3DFLÀF6WXGLHV8QLYHUVLW\RIWKH6RXWK3DFLÀF6XYD)LML
+XQW&(FRQRPLFJOREDOLVDWLRQLPSDFWVRQ3DFLÀFPDULQHUHVRXUFHV0DULQH3ROLF\
²
*UDIWRQ54$GDSWDWLRQWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHLQPDULQHFDSWXUHÀVKHULHV0DULQH3ROLF\
²
$GJHU:1'HVVDL6*RXOGHQ0+XOPH0DQGRWKHUV$UHWKHUHVRFLDOOLPLWVWR
DGDSWDWLRQWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH"&OLPDWLF&KDQJH²
0RVHU 6& DQG (NVWURP -$ $ IUDPHZRUN WR GLDJQRVH EDUULHUV WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH
DGDSWDWLRQ3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH1DWLRQDO$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHRIWKH86$²
5XGGOH . DQG -RKDQQHV 5( 7UDGLWLRQDO 0DULQH 5HVRXUFH 0DQDJHPHQW LQ WKH 3DFLÀF
%DVLQ $Q $QWKRORJ\ 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV (GXFDWLRQDO 6FLHQWLÀF DQG &XOWXUDO 2UJDQLVDWLRQ
53676($-DNDUWD,QGRQHVLD
1XQQ 3' &OLPDWH HQYLURQPHQW DQG VRFLHW\ LQ WKH 3DFLÀF GXULQJ WKH ODVW
PLOOHQQLXP'HYHORSPHQWVLQ(DUWKDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO6FLHQFHV²
5HHQEHUJ $ %LUFK7KRPVHQ 7 0HUW] 2 )RJ % DQG &KULVWLDQVHQ 6 $GDSWDWLRQ RI
KXPDQFRSLQJVWUDWHJLHVLQDVPDOOLVODQGVRFLHW\LQWKH6:3DFLÀF²\HDUVRIFKDQJHLQ
WKHFRXSOHGKXPDQHQYLURQPHQWV\VWHPRQ%HOORQD6RORPRQ,VODQGV+XPDQ(FRORJ\
ï
81(6&20RQDVK8QLYHUVLW\8QGHUVWDQGLQJ*HQGHUDQG&OLPDWH&KDQJHLQWKH3DFLÀF
8QLWHG1DWLRQV(GXFDWLRQDO6FLHQWLÀFDQG&XOWXUDO2UJDQLVDWLRQDQG0RQDVK8QLYHUVLW\
*/$665HVHDUFK8QLW0RQDVK$XVWUDOLD
$TRUDX 7 5HFHQW GHYHORSPHQWV LQ 3DFLÀF WXQD ÀVKHULHV 7KH 3DODX $UUDQJHPHQW
DQGWKHYHVVHOGD\VFKHPH,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI0DULQHDQG&RDVWDO/DZ²
31$31$9'65HSRUW:HVWHUQDQG&HQWUDO3DFLÀF)LVKHULHV&RPPLVVLRQ3RKQSHL
)HGHUDWHG 6WDWHV RI 0LFURQHVLD ZZZZFSIFLQWGRFZFSIFGSSQDYHVVHOGD\
VFKHPHUHSRUW
'DZVRQ%DQG6SDQQDJOH07KH&RPSOHWH*XLGHWR&OLPDWH&KDQJH5RXWOHGJH1HZ
<RUN8QLWHG6WDWHVRI$PHULFD
+DYLFH(7KHVWUXFWXUHRIWXQDDFFHVVDJUHHPHQWVLQWKH:HVWHUQDQG&HQWUDO3DFLÀF
2FHDQ/HVVRQVIRU9HVVHO'D\6FKHPHSODQQLQJ0DULQH3ROLF\²
+DQLFK47HR)DQG7VDPHQ\L0$FROOHFWLYHDSSURDFKWR3DFLÀFLVODQGVÀVKHULHV
PDQDJHPHQW0RYLQJEH\RQGUHJLRQDODJUHHPHQWV0DULQH3ROLF\²
870
CHAPTER 13
)$2,QWHUQDWLRQDO3ODQRI$FWLRQWR3UHYHQW'HWHUDQG(OLPLQDWH,OOHJDO8QUHSRUWHGDQG
8QUHJXODWHG )LVKLQJ )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 5RPH
,WDO\
:LOVRQ-DQG00F&R\6WXG\RIWKH,PSDFWRI(QHUJ\3ULFH)OXFWXDWLRQVRQ)LVKHULHVLQ
WKH3DFLÀFZLWK(PSKDVLVRQWKH7XQD,QGXVWU\7KH:RUOG%DQN:DVKLQJWRQ8QLWHG6WDWHV
RI$PHULFD
+RJDQ/DQG7KRUSH6,VVXHVLQ)RRG0LOHVDQG&DUERQ/DEHOLQJ$XVWUDOLDQ%XUHDX
RI $JULFXOWXUDO DQG 5HVRXUFH (FRQRPLFV 5HVHDUFK 5HSRUW &DQEHUUD $XVWUDOLD
ZZZSDQGRUDQODJRYDXWHS
8/65HYLHZRI/LIH&\FOH,QYHQWRU\6WXG\IRU7XQD3DFNDJLQJZZZXVHOHVVVWXIIFRP
SKRVWLQJSURGFRPUHVHDUFK7XQD/&,6WXG\6XPPDU\SGI
%DUFOD\ . ,PSDFWV RI WXQD LQGXVWULHV RQ FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV LQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG
FRXQWULHV0DULQH3ROLF\²
*LOOHWW 5 6HD 6DIHW\ LQ WKH 3DFLÀF ,VODQGV 7KH 5HODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ 7XQD )LVKHU\
0DQDJHPHQW DQG 6HD 6DIHW\ )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV
5RPH,WDO\
)$25HSRUWRIWKH([SHUW&RQVXOWDWLRQRQ%HVW3UDFWLFHVIRU6DIHW\DW6HDLQWKH)LVKHULHV
6HFWRU 5RPH ² 1RYHPEHU )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG
1DWLRQV5RPH,WDO\
63&)LVKDQG)RRG6HFXULW\3ROLF\%ULHI6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\
1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
(KOHU&&LFLQ6DLQ%.QHFKW56RXWK5DQG:HLKHU5*XLGHOLQHVWRDVVLVWSROLF\
PDNHUVDQGPDQDJHUVRIFRDVWDODUHDVLQWKHLQWHJUDWLRQRIFRDVWDOPDQDJHPHQWSURJUDPV
DQGQDWLRQDOFOLPDWHFKDQJHDFWLRQSODQV2FHDQDQG&RDVWDO0DQDJHPHQW²
'RQH7DQG5HLFKHOW5,QWHJUDWHGFRDVWDO]RQHDQGÀVKHULHVHFRV\VWHPPDQDJHPHQW
*HQHULFJRDOVDQGSHUIRUPDQFHLQGLFHV(FRORJLFDO$SSOLFDWLRQV6²6
$VWRQ-([SHULHQFHVRIFRDVWDOPDQDJHPHQWLQWKH3DFLÀF,VODQGV2FHDQDQG&RDVWDO
0DQDJHPHQW²
*LOPDQ ( *XLGHOLQHV IRU FRDVWDO DQG PDULQH VLWHSODQQLQJ DQG H[DPSOHV RI
SODQQLQJDQGPDQDJHPHQWLQWHUYHQWLRQWRROV2FHDQDQG&RDVWDO0DQDJHPHQW²
:LONLQVRQ & DQG %URGLH - &DWFKPHQW 0DQDJHPHQW DQG &RUDO 5HHI &RQVHUYDWLRQ $
3UDFWLFDO*XLGHIRU&RDVWDO5HVRXUFH0DQDJHUVWR5HGXFH'DPDJHIURP&DWFKPHQW$UHDV%DVHG
RQ%HVW3UDFWLFH&DVH6WXGLHV&RUDO5HHI,QLWLDWLYHVIRUWKH3DFLÀF3URJUDPPH6HFUHWDULDWRI
WKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
*DUFLD 6 DQG &RFKUDQH . (FRV\VWHP DSSURDFK WR ÀVKHULHV $ UHYLHZ RI
LPSOHPHQWDWLRQJXLGHOLQHV,&(6-RXUQDORI0DULQH6FLHQFH²
/HVOLH + DQG 0F/HRG . &RQIURQWLQJ WKH FKDOOHQJHV RI LPSOHPHQWLQJ PDULQH
HFRV\VWHPEDVHGPDQDJHPHQW)URQWLHUVLQ(FRORJ\DQG(QYLURQPHQW²
7DOOLV+/HYLQ35XFNHOVKDXV0/HVWHU6DQGRWKHUV7KHPDQ\IDFHVRIHFRV\VWHP
EDVHG PDQDJHPHQW 0DNLQJ WKH SURFHVV ZRUN WRGD\ LQ UHDO SODFHV 0DULQH 3ROLF\ ²
63&$JULFXOWXUH)RUHVWU\DQG&OLPDWH&KDQJH3ROLF\%ULHI6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH
3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
)$2%XLOGLQJ5HVLOLHQFHWR&OLPDWH&KDQJH3DFLÀF)RRG6HFXULW\7RRONLW5RRW&URSVDQG
)LVKHU\3URGXFWLRQ)RRGDQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV5RPH,WDO\
871
&OXD ( %HOLDHII % &KDXYHW & 'DYLG * DQG RWKHUV 7RZDUGV PXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\
LQGLFDWRU GDVKERDUGV IRU FRUDO UHHI ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW $TXDWLF /LYLQJ 5HVRXUFHV ²
)ULHGPDQ.3XUFHOO6%HOO-DQG+DLU&6HD&XFXPEHU)LVKHULHV$0DQDJHU·V7RROER[
$XVWUDOLDQ&HQWUHIRU,QWHUQDWLRQDO$JULFXOWXUDO5HVHDUFK&DQEHUUD$XVWUDOLD
&KHXQJ ::/ /DP 9 6DUPLHQWR -/ .HDUQH\ . DQG RWKHUV /DUJHVFDOH
UHGLVWULEXWLRQ RI PD[LPXP ÀVKHULHV FDWFK SRWHQWLDO LQ WKH JOREDO RFHDQ XQGHU FOLPDWH
FKDQJH*OREDO&KDQJH%LRORJ\²
3UDWFKHWW060XQGD\06:LOVRQ6.*UDKDP1$-DQGRWKHUV(IIHFWVRIFOLPDWH
LQGXFHG FRUDO EOHDFKLQJ RQ FRUDOUHHI ÀVKHV (FRORJLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF FRQVHTXHQFHV
2FHDQRJUDSK\DQG0DULQH%LRORJ\$Q$QQXDO5HYLHZ²
&LQQHU -( 0F&ODQDKDQ 75 *UDKDP 1$- 3UDWFKHWW 06 DQG RWKHUV *HDUEDVHG
ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW DV D SRWHQWLDO DGDSWLYH UHVSRQVH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG FRUDO
PRUWDOLW\-RXUQDORI$SSOLHG(FRORJ\²
%HOOZRRG'5+XJKHV73)RONH&DQG1\VWU|P0&RQIURQWLQJWKHFRUDOUHHIFULVLV
1DWXUH²
+XJKHV 73 5RGULJXHV 0- %HOOZRRG '5 &HFFDUHOOL ' DQG RWKHUV 3KDVH VKLIWV
KHUELYRU\DQGWKHUHVLOLHQFHRIFRUDOUHHIVWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH&XUUHQW%LRORJ\²
%ODQF0DQG/H%DUV-+RZWR0DNH)LVK6LODJH6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\
1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
9XQLVHD $ *HQGHU UROHV LQ VXEVLVWHQFH ÀVKHULHV RI WKH 3DFLÀF ,Q , 1RYDFKHFN -
0LWFKHOO DQG - 9HLWD\DNL HGV 3DFLÀF 9RLFHV (TXLW\ DQG 6XVWDLQDELOLW\ LQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG
)LVKHULHV,QVWLWXWHRI3DFLÀF6WXGLHV8QLYHUVLW\RIWKH6RXWK3DFLÀF6XYD)LML
%LGHVL 95 'RPHVWLFDWLRQ RI WKH 7XQD ,QGXVWU\ LQ WKH 3DFLÀF $Q $QDO\VLV RI 1DWLRQDO
DQG5HJLRQDO6WUDWHJLHV3K'7KHVLV&HQWUHIRU0DULWLPH3ROLF\8QLYHUVLW\RI:ROORQJRQJ
:ROORQJRQJ$XVWUDOLD
&KDSPDQ/3DVLVL%%HUWUDP,%HYHUO\6DQG6RNLPL:0DQXDORQ)LVK$JJUHJDWLQJ
'HYLFHV)$'V/RZHUFRVW0RRULQJVDQG3URJUDPPH0DQDJHPHQW6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF
&RPPXQLW\1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
3UHVWRQ*/&KDSPDQ/%DQG:DWW3*9HUWLFDO/RQJOLQLQJDQGRWKHU0HWKRGVRI)LVKLQJ
$URXQG)LVK$JJUHJDWLQJ'HYLFHV)$'V$0DQXDOIRU)LVKHUPHQ6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF
&RPPXQLW\1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
6PLWK 37 $TXDFXOWXUH LQ 3DSXD 1HZ *XLQHD 6WDWXV RI )UHVKZDWHU )LVK )DUPLQJ
$XVWUDOLDQ &HQWUH IRU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO $JULFXOWXUDO 5HVHDUFK 0RQRJUDSK &DQEHUUD
$XVWUDOLD
$'% $Q (YDOXDWLRQ RI 6PDOO6FDOH )UHVKZDWHU 5XUDO $TXDFXOWXUH 'HYHORSPHQW IRU
3RYHUW\5HGXFWLRQ$VLDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQN0DQLOD3KLOLSSLQHV
'H 6LOYD 66 DQG )% 'DYH\ 6XFFHVV 6WRULHV LQ $VLDQ $TXDFXOWXUH 6SULQJHU /RQGRQ
8QLWHG.LQJGRP
*XSWD09DQG$FRVWD%27KHLPSDFWRIJHQHWLFDOO\LPSURYHGIDUPHG1LOHWLODSLD
LQ$VLD$TXDFXOWXUH(FRQRPLFVDQG0DQDJHPHQW²
1DQGODO 6 DQG )RVFDULQL 5 ,QWURGXFWLRQ RI 7LODSLD 6SHFLHV DQG &RQVWUDLQWV WR 7LODSLD
)DUPLQJ LQ )LML )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 5RPH ,WDO\
ZZZIDRRUJGRFUHSÀHOGDFHDFHKWP
1DQGODO6DQG3LFNHULQJ7'7LODSLD)LVK)DUPLQJLQ3DFLÀF,VODQG&RXQWULHV9ROXPH
7LODSLD*URZRXWLQ3RQGV6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
872
CHAPTER 13
7XDUD 3 3UDFWLFDO 0HWKRGV IRU 3UHVHUYLQJ 6HDIRRGV 6DOWLQJ DQG 'U\LQJ $ 7UDLQLQJ
0DQXDO6RXWK3DFLÀF&RPPLVVLRQ1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
3LFNHULQJ 7 7LODSLD ÀVK IDUPLQJ LQ WKH 3DFLÀF ² $ UHVSRQVLEOH ZD\ IRUZDUG
6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\)LVKHULHV1HZVOHWWHU²
5LFH -& DQG *DUFLD 60 )LVKHULHV IRRG VHFXULW\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG ELRGLYHUVLW\
&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHVHFWRUDQGSHUVSHFWLYHVRQHPHUJLQJLVVXHV,&(6-RXUQDORI0DULQH
6FLHQFH²
'DPEDFKHU-0*DXJKDQ'-5RFKHW0-5RVVLJQRO3$DQG7UHQNHO904XDOLWDWLYH
PRGHOOLQJDQGLQGLFDWRUVRIH[SORLWHGHFRV\VWHPV)LVKDQG)LVKHULHV²
3ODJiQ\L (( %HOO - %XVWDPDQWH 5 'DPEDFKHU - DQG RWKHUV 0RGHOOLQJ FOLPDWH
FKDQJHHIIHFWVRQ$XVWUDOLDQDQG3DFLÀFDTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPV$UHYLHZRIDQDO\WLFDOWRROV
DQGPDQDJHPHQWLPSOLFDWLRQV0DULQHDQG)UHVKZDWHU5HVHDUFK²
&KDJQDXG $1 3RWHQWLDO $SSOLFDWLRQ RI *,6 7RROV LQ 6WUDWHJLF 3ODQQLQJ IRU )UHVKZDWHU
$TXDFXOWXUH LQ 63& &RXQWULHV 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\ 1RXPHD 1HZ
&DOHGRQLD
%HOO-%ULJKW3*LOOHWW5.HHEOH*DQGRWKHUV,PSRUWDQFHRIKRXVHKROGLQFRPHDQG
H[SHQGLWXUH VXUYH\V DQG FHQVXVHV IRU PDQDJHPHQW RI FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV
6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\)LVKHULHV1HZVOHWWHU²
%UHZHU7'3XWWLQJFHQVXVGDWDWRZRUN6FLHQFH²
81'3 7KH 5HDO :HDOWK RI 1DWLRQV 3DWKZD\V WR +XPDQ 'HYHORSPHQW +XPDQ
'HYHORSPHQW 5HSRUW 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 'HYHORSPHQW 3URJUDP 1HZ <RUN 8QLWHG
6WDWHVRI$PHULFD
/HKRGH\30DXU\2DQG5DWKEXUQ0&/LPDWH,PSDFWVRQ2FHDQLF72S3UHGDWRUV
,QWHUQDWLRQDO6\PSRVLXP/D3D]0H[LFR²'HFHPEHU3URJUHVVLQ2FHDQRJUDSK\
²
-RKQVRQ-(DQG:HOFK'-0DULQHÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWLQDFKDQJLQJFOLPDWH$
UHYLHZRIYXOQHUDELOLW\DQGIXWXUHRSWLRQV5HYLHZVLQ)LVKHULHV6FLHQFH²
%HOO -' -RKQVRQ -( +REGD\ $- *DQDFKDXG $ DQG RWKHUV 9XOQHUDELOLW\ RI 7URSLFDO
3DFLÀF)LVKHULHVDQG$TXDFXOWXUHWR&OLPDWH&KDQJH6XPPDU\IRU3DFLÀF,VODQG&RXQWULHVDQG
7HUULWRULHV6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\1RXPHD1HZ&DOHGRQLD
$OOLVRQ(+3HUU\$/%DGMHFN0&$GJHU:1DQGRWKHUV9XOQHUDELOLW\RIQDWLRQDO
HFRQRPLHVWRWKHLPSDFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQÀVKHULHV)LVKDQG)LVKHULHV²
+DOORZHG $% %DUDQJH 0 ,WR 6, .LP 6 DQG RWKHUV (IIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ
ÀVK DQG ÀVKHULHV )RUHFDVWLQJ LPSDFWV DVVHVVLQJ HFRV\VWHP UHVSRQVHV DQG HYDOXDWLQJ
PDQDJHPHQWVWUDWHJLHV,&(6-RXUQDORI0DULQH6FLHQFHï
6DXQL$(FRV\VWHPDSSURDFKWRÀVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQW,PSOHPHQWDWLRQLVVXHVDQG
FKDOOHQJHVIRUWKH3DFLÀFLVODQGVWDWHV,Q4+DQLFKDQG07VDPHQ\LHGV1DYLJDWLQJ3DFLÀF
)LVKHULHV/HJDODQG3ROLF\7UHQGVLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI,QWHUQDWLRQDO)LVKHULHV,QVWUXPHQWVLQ
WKH:HVWHUQ DQG &HQWUDO 3DFLÀF 5HJLRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI :ROORQJRQJ :ROORQJRQJ $XVWUDOLD
SS²
))$ )RUXP )LVKHULHV $JHQF\ 6WUDWHJLF 3ODQ ² )RUXP )LVKHULHV $JHQF\
+RQLDUD6RORPRQ,VODQGVZZZIIDLQWV\VWHPÀOHV))$B6WUDWHJLF3ODQSGI
))$ 1DXUX $JUHHPHQW )RUXP )LVKHULHV $JHQF\ +RQLDUD 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV
ZZZIIDLQWQDXUXBDJUHHPHQW
))$0RQLWRULQJ&RQWURO6XUYHLOODQFH0&6²6WUHQJWK7KURXJK&RRSHUDWLRQ)RUXP
)LVKHULHV$JHQF\+RQLDUD6RORPRQ,VODQGVZZZIIDLQWPFV
873
))$2EVHUYHU3URJUDPPH)RUXP)LVKHULHV$JHQF\+RQLDUD6RORPRQ,VODQGVZZZ
IIDLQWREVHUYHUV
.UXJHU - 3HOOHWLHU % DQG 6KDUPD $ &RPSRVLWH %DWK\PHWULF 0DS RI 9DQXDWX (IDWH
623$&%DWK\PHWULF6HULHV0DS6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH3DFLÀF&RPPXQLW\1RXPHD1HZ
&DOHGRQLD
3XFFLD&-DQG/HYLQV54XDOLWDWLYH0RGHOLQJRI&RPSOH[6\VWHPV$Q,QWURGXFWLRQWR
/RRS $QDO\VLV DQG 7LPH $YHUDJLQJ +DUYDUG 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH 0DVVDFKXVHWWV
8QLWHG6WDWHVRI$PHULFD
'DPEDFKHU -0 DQG 5DPRV-LOLEHUWR 5 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ DQG SUHGLFWLQJ HIIHFWV RI
PRGLÀHG LQWHUDFWLRQV WKURXJK D TXDOLWDWLYH DQDO\VLV RI FRPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH 4XDUWHUO\
5HYLHZRI%LRORJ\²
'DPEDFKHU -0 /L +: DQG 5RVVLJQRO 3$ 5HOHYDQFH RI FRPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH LQ
DVVHVVLQJLQGHWHUPLQDF\RIHFRORJLFDOSUHGLFWLRQV(FRORJ\²
'DPEDFKHU -0 /L +: DQG 5RVVLJQRO 3$ 4XDOLWDWLYH SUHGLFWLRQV LQ PRGHO
HFRV\VWHPV(FRORJLFDO0RGHOOLQJ²²
'DPEDFKHU -0 /XK +. /L +: DQG 5RVVLJQRO 3$ 4XDOLWDWLYH VWDELOLW\ DQG
DPELJXLW\LQPRGHOHFRV\VWHPV$PHULFDQ1DWXUDOLVW²
+RVDFN*5+D\HV.5DQG'DPEDFKHU-0$VVHVVLQJPRGHOVWUXFWXUHXQFHUWDLQW\
WKURXJKDQDQDO\VLVRIV\VWHPIHHGEDFNDQG%D\HVLDQQHWZRUNV(FRORJLFDO$SSOLFDWLRQV
²
874
CHAPTER 13
Appendix 13.1 Overview of qualitative modelling
4XDOLWDWLYH PRGHOOLQJï GHVFULEHV WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV OLQNLQJ YDULDEOHV ZLWKLQ D
V\VWHPDQGWKHLPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKHVHOLQNVWRWKHIHHGEDFNSURSHUWLHVDQGG\QDPLFV
RIWKHZKROHV\VWHP4XDOLWDWLYHPRGHOVXVHWKHVLJQLHSRVLWLYHQHJDWLYH]HURIRU
GLUHFW HIIHFWV EHWZHHQ YDULDEOHV ZKLFK DUH GHSLFWHG DV OLQNV LQ D VLJQHGGLUHFWHG
JUDSK)LJXUH$OLQNHQGLQJLQDQDUURZUHSUHVHQWVDSRVLWLYHGLUHFWHIIHFWRIRQH
YDULDEOHRQDQRWKHUDQGRQHHQGLQJLQDÀOOHGFLUFOHLQGLFDWHVDQHJDWLYHGLUHFWHIIHFW
$OOSRVVLEOH SDLUZLVH HFRORJLFDO UHODWLRQVKLSVFDQWKXVEHUHSUHVHQWHGDVSUHGDWRU
SUH\ FRPSHWLWLRQ PXWXDOLVP FRPPHQVDOLVP DQG DPHQVDOLVP
6LJQHG GLJUDSKV FDQ DOVR EH XVHG WR GHVFULEH YDULRXV NLQGV RI UHODWLRQVKLSV
IRU H[DPSOH WKH WZR YDULDEOH V\VWHPV LQ )LJXUH D FDQ EH XVHG WR UHSUHVHQW DQ
HFRORJLFDO SUHGDWRUSUH\ UHODWLRQVKLS RU DQ HFRQRPLF VXSSO\GHPDQG UHODWLRQVKLS
/LQNVOHDGLQJIURPDYDULDEOHWRLWVHOIGHQRWHVHOIHIIHFWV3URFHVVHVWKDWOHDGWRVHOI
UHJXODWLRQVXFKDVDGHQVLW\GHSHQGHQWUDWHRIUHSURGXFWLRQLQDSRSXODWLRQFRQIHU
DQHJDWLYHVHOIHIIHFWZKHUHDVVHOIHQKDQFLQJSURFHVVHVFUHDWHSRVLWLYHVHOIHIIHFWV,I
WKHJURZWKRIDYDULDEOHLVGHWHUPLQHGVROHO\IURPWKHRWKHUYDULDEOHVLQFOXGHGLQWKH
PRGHOWKHQLWZLOOSRVVHVVQRVHOIHIIHFW
4XDOLWDWLYHPRGHOVFDQDOVRGHSLFWLQWHUDFWLRQVWKDWDUHHQKDQFHGRUVXSSUHVVHGE\
DQRWKHUYDULDEOH)RUH[DPSOH)LJXUHFVKRZVKRZYDULDEOH=DFWVWRLQFUHDVHWKH
LQWHQVLW\RIWKHSUHGDWRUSUH\LQWHUDFWLRQRI;DQG<ZKLFKLVLQGLFDWHGE\DGDVK
OLQHGSRVLWLYHOLQN7KLVPRGLÀHGLQWHUDFWLRQUHVXOWVLQGLUHFWHIIHFWVOHDGLQJIURP=
WRYDULDEOHV;DQG<WKHVLJQDQGGLUHFWLRQRIZKLFKLVGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHSURGXFWRI
WKHGDVKHGOLQHGOLQNDQGWKHLQGLYLGXDOSDLUZLVHOLQNV,QWKLVH[DPSOHWKHSURGXFW
RIWKHSRVLWLYHGDVKHGOLQHGOLQNIURP=DQGWKHQHJDWLYHOLQNOHDGLQJWR;FUHDWHVD
QHJDWLYHOLQNOHDGLQJIURP=WR;
7UDFLQJ WKH F\FOLFDO SDWKZD\ RI OLQNV LQ D V\VWHP GHÀQHV LWV IHHGEDFN F\FOHV DQG
DQDO\VLVRIWKHVHF\FOHVLVXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHVWDELOLW\RIWKHV\VWHP7KHPRGHO
V\VWHPLQ)LJXUHDKDVWZRQHJDWLYHIHHGEDFNF\FOHV2QHF\FOHRIOHQJWKRQHLVIURP
WKHVHOIHIIHFWRIYDULDEOH;ZKLOHDIHHGEDFNF\FOHRIOHQJWKWZRLVGHÀQHGIURPWKH
SURGXFWRIWKHSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHOLQNVFRQQHFWLQJ;DQG<7KLVV\VWHPKDVRQO\
QHJDWLYHIHHGEDFNDQGWKXVDQLQFUHDVHLQ;OHDGVWRDQLQFUHDVHLQ<ZKLFKWKHQDFWV
WROLPLW;7KLVQHJDWLYHIHHGEDFNJXDUDQWHHVWKDWWKHV\VWHPKDVWKHDELOLW\WRUHFRYHU
IURPDGLVWXUEDQFHWKURXJKVHOIFRUUHFWLRQ)LJXUHESUHVHQWVDQH[DPSOHRIDPRGHO
V\VWHPZLWKDSRVLWLYHIHHGEDFNF\FOHLQYROYLQJWKUHHYDULDEOHV+HUHDQLQFUHDVHLQ
SRSXODWLRQGLPLQLVKHVDYDLODEOHUHVRXUFHV7KLVODFNRIUHVRXUFHVFUHDWHVDQLQFHQWLYH
IRU GHYHORSPHQW RI DGGLWLRQDO UHVRXUFHV ZKLFK WKHUHE\ VXSSRUWV IXUWKHU LQFUHDVH
LQ SRSXODWLRQ LH ZKHQ DYDLODEOH UHVRXUFHV DUH SOHQWLIXO WKHUH LV OLWWOH LQFHQWLYH WR
GHYHORS QHZ UHVRXUFHV EXW ZKHQ DYDLODELOLW\ LV OLPLWHG WKHUH LV LQFUHDVHG HIIRUW WR
VHFXUH QHZ UHVRXUFHV WKLV G\QDPLF FUHDWHV D QHJDWLYH OLQN IURP YDULDEOH = WR < LQ
WKHPRGHORI)LJXUHE6XFKDSRVLWLYHIHHGEDFNLIQRWFRXQWHUEDODQFHGE\WKHWKUHH
QHJDWLYHVHOIHIIHFWVFDQFRQWLQXDOO\GULYHWKHV\VWHPDQGSUHYHQWLWIURPUHDFKLQJ
HTXLOLEULXP
875
:KHUH D YDULDEOH LV WKH SRLQW RI LQSXW WR WKH V\VWHP WKH UHVSRQVH RI WKH RWKHU
YDULDEOHVFDQEHGHWHUPLQHGIURPWKHSURGXFWRIWKHOLQNVDORQJGLUHFWDQGLQGLUHFW
SDWKZD\VHPDQDWLQJIURPWKDWYDULDEOH)RUH[DPSOHDQLQSXWWKDWDFWVWRLQFUHDVH=
LQ)LJXUHFZLOOFDXVH;WRGHFUHDVHE\WZRQHJDWLYHO\VLJQHGSDWKZD\VLHDGLUHFW
QHJDWLYHHIIHFWIURP=DQGDQLQGLUHFWQHJDWLYHHIIHFWYLD<7KHUHVSRQVHRIYDULDEOH
< WR WKLV LQSXW KRZHYHU LV TXDOLWDWLYHO\ DPELJXRXV DV WKHUH LV ERWK D SRVLWLYHO\
DQGQHJDWLYHO\VLJQHGSDWKZD\OHDGLQJWR<IURP=7KLVDPELJXLW\FDQEHUHVROYHG
WKURXJK NQRZOHGJH RI WKH UHODWLYH VWUHQJWKV RI WKH OLQNV LQYROYHG ,Q ODUJHU DQG
PRUHFRPSOLFDWHGV\VWHPVKRZHYHUWKHUHFDQEHDYDVWQXPEHURIRSSRVLWHO\VLJQHG
SDWKZD\V DQG LQWHUSUHWLQJ WKH DPELJXLW\ WKURXJK WKH UHODWLYH VWUHQJWK RI OLQNV LV
LPSRVVLEOH ,Q VXFK FDVHV D SUREDELOLVWLF LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI SRVLWLYHO\
DQG QHJDWLYHO\ VLJQHG SDWKZD\V LV XVHG WR SUHGLFW WKH OLNHO\ VLJQ RI D YDULDEOH·V
UHVSRQVH
a) pairwise interaction
prey
demand
predator
b) positive feedback
population
development
c) modified interaction
)LJXUH ([DPSOHV RI VLJQHG GLJUDSKV VKRZLQJ PRGHO V\VWHPV ZLWK D WZR YDULDEOHV
ZLWKQHJDWLYHIHHGEDFNEHWZHHQWKHPEWKUHHYDULDEOHVZLWKSRVLWLYHIHHGEDFNDQGFD
V\VWHPZKHUHRQHYDULDEOHPRGLÀHVWKHLQWHQVLW\RIWKHLQWHUDFWLRQRIWZRRWKHUYDULDEOHV
VHHWH[WIRUIXUWKHUH[SODQDWLRQ
876