Chapter I
Short Arguments: Some General Rules
oig inizmg them in a clear
Arguments begin b marshaling reasons and
composing short arguments.
and fair wai Chapter 1 offers general rules for
arguments
t
Chapter% lI—VI discuss cpecifi xa’ dc of shor
identify premises and conclusion
is to ask ourseif what iou are
The very flrst step in in iking an argument
ember that the conclusion
Rem
trying to prove. What is our conclusion?
The statements that gu e
ns
u the statement for is hnh you are giving rcaso
your reasons are your premises.
l:
Consider these lines from Winston Churchil
being any
I am an optimist. It does not seem to be much use
C
CD
thing else.
—because Churchill is
This is an argument—as well as an amusing quip
“It does not seeni to
giving a reason to be an optimist: his premise is that
be much use being anything else.”
ous. Sherlock Holmes
Premises and conclusion are not always so obvi
enture of Silver Blaze”:
has to explain one of his deductions in “The Adv
someone had
A dog was kept in the stalls, and yet though
barked
not
been in and fetched out a horse, [the dog] had
the dog kneis
i isitor was someone whom
Obviously the
well.
1
dog did not bark at the visi
Holmes has ro premises. One is explicit: the
mes we know about dogs:
tor. ‘The other is a general fact that Holmes assu
imply that the visitor was
dogs bark at strangers. Together these premises
solving the mystery
nor a stranger. It turns out that this is the key to
iry, you sometimes
When you are using arguments as a means of inqu
wisti to defend State it
ma start with no more than the conclusion iou
l a step farther and
rchil
Chu
clearly, first of all. Maybe you want to take
of Silver Blaze,” in The complete Sherlock
1. Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, “The Adventure
, 1930), p. 199.
Books
s (Garden City, NY: Garden City
Holme
3
Rule 1: Identify premises and conclusion
Rule 1 identify premises and Conclusion
4
argue that too rnd I should be opt1m1st too if so, sat so expbcith Then
ask yourself what reasons you have fbr drawing that conclusion. \Vhat rea
sons can mu aive to prove that we should he optimists?
Ion conk’, appeal to Churchill’s aurhoriru If Churchill recommends
optimism, who are we to quibble? This appeal will not get you very far,
however, since equally famous people have recommended pessimism. You
need to think about the question on your own. Again, what is vane reason
tbr thsnkma that we should be optimists?
One reason could be that optimism boosts your energy to work tbr
success, whereas if you feel defeated in advance you may never even try.
Optimists are more likely to succeed, to achieve their goals. (Maybe this is
what Churchill meant as welL) if this is your premise, say so explicithe
‘This book ofikrs you a ready list of different forms that arguments can
take. Use this list to develop your premises. To defend a generalization, for
instance, check Chapter iT. It will remind you that you need to give a series
of examples as premises, and it will tell you what sorts of examples to look
for. If tour conclusion requires a deductive argument like those explained
in Chapter VT, the rules outlined in that chapter will tell you what types of
premises you need. ‘thu may have to try several dilThrent arguments before
von find one that works well.
Exercise Set 1 1: Distinguishing premises from conclusions
.
Objective: To give you practice distinguishing premises from conclusions
in other people’s arguments.
Instructions: Rewrite each argument below, underlining the conclusion of
each argument and putting brackets around each premise.
Tips for success: Distinguishing premises from conclusions is sometimes
more of an art than a science, We wish people were always clear about the
premises and conclusions of their argument. but that’s jut not the case.
Therefore, learning to distinguish premises from conclusions takes prac
tice. As you practice, there are two strategies that you should keep in mind.
The first strategy is simply to ask yourselfwhat the author of this argu
ment is trying to convince you to believe. The claim that the author is try
ing to get you to believe is the argument’s conclusion. Then you can ask what
reasons the a’thor gives to try to convince you. These will be the argument’s
premises.
The second strategy for distinguishing premises from conclusions is to
look fbr indicator wordc. Some words or phrases are conclusion indicators.
These are words or phrases that tell von that you’re about to read or hear
the conclusion of an argument. Other words or phrases are premise indica—
tars. These tell you that you’re about to read or hear a premise. Here’s a
sample of the most common conclusion and premise indicators:
Conclusion Indicators
therefore
thus
hence
consequently
this shows that
Premise Indicators
because
since
given that
for
on the grounds that
this follows from
You’ll start to notice more indicator words as you get better at analyzing
arguments.
Two more pieces of advice: First, don’t rely solely on indicator words.
Some arguments will not use any indicator words. Others will use indica
tor words in other ways. Some words, like because, since, and so, have many
other uses; not every use of because indicates that you’re about to hear a
premise. ‘When in doubt, fall back on our first strategy: ask yourselfwhether
the author is giving you a reason for the conclusion. If your answer is no,
you haven’t found a premise, even if the sentence includes because or since.
Second, don’t assume that everything in a passage is either a premise
or a conclusion. Not all passages contain arguments. Some passages are
telling stories, describing things, giving explanations, issuing commands,
making jokes, or doing other things besides giving reasons for a conclu
sion. Even in passages that do contain arguments, some sentences or
clauses will provide background information, make side comments, and so
on. Again, the key is to ask yourself, “Is this sentence stating a conclusion
or giving me a reason to believe that conclusion?” If it is doing either, it’s
part of an argument; if not, it’s not.
5
6
Rule 1: Identify premises and conclusion
Rule 1: Identify premises and conclusion
4.
Sample
[In order to prosper, a democracy needs its citizens to be able to carry out their
responsibilities competentlv.J [Being a competent citizen requires familia
rity
with the basics of math, natural science, social science, history, and literature,
as
well as the ability to read and write well and the ability to think criticallv.J
[A
liberal education is essential to developing these skills.J ‘Therefore, in order for
a
must get a liberal education.
Adaptedfrom: Cicero. Dc Officiis 11
5.
Ada pted fism: Steven 34. Cahn, letter to the edito New YrkTimes,
May 21, 2004
The markings in this sample problem indicate that the last sentence is the conclusion
and that
each of thefirst three sentences is a separate premise. Although each senten in
ce this letter to
the editor expresses either a premise or a conclusion, remember that many passag
es contain
sentences (or parts 0/sentences) that are neither premises nor conclusions. You
don’t need to
bracket or underline those (parts of) sentences.
1.
2.
rIJa rtin
6.
Adatred from: Shaila Dewan, tlnima/Autopsies
in
‘The head of the spy ring is very dangerous. He is also exception
ally clever and a master of disguise. He has a dozen names and a
hundred different appearances. But there is one thing he cannot
disguise: he is missing the tip of his little finger. So, if you ever
meet a man who is missing the top joint of his little finger, you
should he very careful!
Adapted from: ‘The 39 Steps, directed by Allied Hitchcock
London: Gaumo’zt British 1 935)
Luther King Je, “Letterfrom a Birminghan Jail,
Liberation: An Independent Monthly, Jun 196.3
While performing an autopsy on a dead sea turtle, Dr. Stacy
found shrimp in the turtle’s throat. Sea turtles can only catch
shrimp if they are stuck in nets with the shrimp. Therefore, the
dead sea turtle was probably caught in a net.
Positron-emission tomography better known as PET, is a method
for examining a persons brain. Before undergoing PE”I the pa
tient inhales a gas containing radioactive molecules. The molecules
are not dangerous for the patient because they break down within
-a few minutes, before they can do any damage.
Adapted from: Bryan Kolb and ian Q. Wishaw, Fundamentals of Human
Neuropschology. 5th ccl. ($llw York: ttSrth Publishers, 2003), 161
Racial segregation reduces some persons to the status of things.
Hence, segregation is morally wrong.
Adapted from:
‘There are two ways of settling a dispute: by discussion and by
physical force. Since the first way is appropriate for human beings
and the second way appropriate for animals, we must resort to
force only when we cannot settle matters by discussion.
7.
Some people buy college degrees on the Internet because they’re
trying to pretend that they went to college. That’s a waste of money
since it’s easy to make a college degree on your computers and a
degree that you make yourself is just as good as a degree that you
bought on the Internet.
Adaptedfrom: “Fake Degrees in Government, “The Onion, Oct 18, 2006,
GulfYield Mystery,”
New York Times, Jul 14, 2010, http.//www. nytimescom2010/07/1S/i*cience/
earth/lsnecrcpsy. html
S.
3.
Most people experience no side effects from the yellow fever
vaccine, People with egg allergies shouldn’t get the yellow fever
vaccine, though, because some part of the vaccine is grown inside
eggs.
Adaptedfrom: Division of Idetor Borne infectious Diseases, “Giccine C’DC
Yellow Fevei: &ztersJir Dzseasc Control and Prevention,
5rtp.wwwiigov/ncidoshid/YelloFYee/vaccine/
People are created equal and endowed with unalienable rights.
Governments exist to protect those rights. When a government
violates those rights, people have a right to rebel against that gov
ernment and create a new one. The king of Great Britain has re
peatedly violated the rights of the American colonists. Thus, the
American colonists have a right to rebel again-st the king of Great
Britain.
Adaptec/iron:: US. Declarat:sn sf Independence
7
8
9.
It shouldn’r surprise anyone that charter sthools associated with
the public school system perform beer than those that operate
on their own .Although the public-school bureaucracy can some
times make it hard to get things done, it also provides invaluable
support and services to the charter schools that are associated
with it. I don’t see why some people are intent on destroying the
public-school system.
id;5t1fm: Rrd Kdll her
/e.Oe to
the ed/Sos: New \hrk Times, Sep 1, 2006.
)/ttti/mo, n”th’n’c 00 s4ist4hs//sa
10.
tm/rc
e only remaining question was why the man had been mur
dered. Vas it a politically motivated crime or a private one? I
thought right away that it must be a privately motivated crime.
Political assassins move quickiv and flee. But in this case, the
murderer’s thotprints are all over the room, showing that he had
spent quite a while in this room.
Adapted fromjHh,,y
(omsn Dole, A Study in Scarlet (London:
(Void jsc A Co. 1858; nys:. London: Pen ps/n, 2001), lA
Need more practice? Take a look at the editorials. op-eds, and letters to
the editor on the Wh site for your favorite newspaper. Most of these will
contain arguments XVorking by yourself or with a classmate, identifi’ the
premises and conclusions in those arguments.
Develop your ideas in a natural order
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CD
N)
Short arguments are usually developed in one or two paragraphs. Put the
conclusion first, followed by your reasons, or set out your premises hrsr and
draw the conclusion at the end. In any case, set out your ideas in an order
that unfolds your line of thought most clearly for the reader.
Consider this short argument by Bertrand Russell:
The evils of the world are due to moral defects quite as much
as to lack of intelligence. But the human race has not hith
erto discovered any method of eradjcatjno moral defects.,.,
Intelligence, on the contrar is easily improved hr methods
known to every competent educatoy Therefore, until some
Rule 2: Develop your ideas in a natural order
C
Pule 2 Develop your ideas fl a natural order
C
C
will
method of teaching virtue has been discovered, proprcss
than
rather
have to be sought by improvement of intelligence
of morals.t
one, and
Each sentence in this passage prepares the way for the next
g
pointin
begins
l
y
5
Russel
then the next one steps smoothly up to bat,
and
it,
he
puts
as
”
out the two sources of evil in the world: “moral defecto
to correct
lack of intelligence. He then claims that we do not know how
intelligence.
“moral defects,” hut that we do know how to correct lack of
tonclusion—
Therefore—notice that the word “therefore” clearly marks his
ence.
intellig
ing
improv
progress will have to come by
a teal
Getting an argument to unfold in this smooth sort of war is
art—
each
fhr
place
right
aceomplshment. It’s not easy to find lust the
argued
instead
l
and plenty of wrong places are available. Suppose Russel
like this:
The evils of the world are due to moral defects quite as much
as to lack of intelligence. Until some method of teaching vir
tue has been discovered, progress will have to he sought by
improvement of intelligence rather than of morals. intelli
gence is easily improved by methods known to every compe
tent educator. ‘The human race has nor hitherto discovered
any means of eradicating moral defects.
nt order,
These are the same premises and conclusion, hut they are in a differe
Now the
and the word “therefore” has been omitted before the conclusion.
less per
much
also
re
therefo
and
tand,
argument is much harder to unders
read the
to
have
you
and
ly,
natural
r
suasive.’Ihe premises do not fit togethe
on your
count
Don’t
is.
sion
passage twice just to figure out what the conclu
readers to be so patient.
nat
Expect to rearrange your argument several times to find the most
them
use
ural order. The rules discussed in this hook should help. You can
how to
also
hut
need
you
es
premis
of
kinds
to figure out not only what
arrange them in the best order.
2. Bertrand Russell.
p. 127.
Skeptical Eosa’
1 35: rcpr.. 6 ,md’n: A/len & Un’vin, I
9
10
Rule 2 Develop your ideas in a natural order
Rule 2 Develop your ideas in a natural order
a
ExercIse Set 1 2 Outlining arguments in premise-andconc1usion form
Objective
To
give
you practice
rewriting
Sample
a”guments in a clear logical
Some companies are creating genetically modified animals, such as salmon, that
provide more meat for consumers. If genetically modied salmon escaped into
,
the wild, they would compete with “natural” salmon for food. Natural salmon
though, have been honed by natural selection to flourish in the wild. Genetically
ly
modified salmon are not designed to flourish in the wild, Thus, non-genetical
modi
ifgenetically
modified salmon would outcompete genetically modified salmon
fied salmon escaped into the wild.
structure
a
Instructions Each of the following passages contains an argument Put
natural, meamng#iil order and VT te them out in a num
bered list Then, write the conclusion a the end of the list
the premises in a
Tips for success It’s often helpful to outline arguments in premise-andconclusion form This involves several steps
First, 7
identifl the premises and the co” lusionc lust as you did n
Exercise Set 11
Then, put the prem ses in a meaon gf ii order_that is, an order that
helps ou understand how the premises con iect with one another and with
the conclusion In many cases, there on’t be a single best ordering Try a
few different orderings and pick the one that makes the most sense to you
When you have settled on a meaningful order for the premises, write
the premises down in a numbered list It’s helpful to make each premise a
complete sentence, replacing pronouns hke him or it with the names of the
Aehited from: Dawn ofthe Frankenfsh, “The Economist, Jun 10, 2010
(i)
the
conclusion
at
the
end
of the
list
Some
(s)
it’ierefore, (4) No-geetiocLLf
add up
to the conclusion
i-vto tIie wiLd, therj
woLd
oowpete with
traL
Lectio to -fLorisi’i i tkie wiLd.
deaigvcec( to -f1oiniah lis the wiLd.
todi-fied Ltov wotLd otoovivpete geetiotLL
wt
codi-ed ariLwov’ if ge-etiiLL wodif-ed saLito eswped lito the wiLd.
to put it
This argument a/ready presents its ideas in a natural order The only thing needed
list,
numbered
in
a
them
put
into premise—and—conclusionJbrm is to identi the premises,
and add “therefore” before the conclusion.
The first sentence in thepassage is not a premise in the argument. Its purpose is to provide
need to
context fir the argument, not to give a reason to accept the conclusion. Ph’ do not
include it in our outline ofthe argument.
logicians
that mathematicians draw between an arithmetic problem and its
answer.
cians rite therefore or include the smboj
before the conclusion
friovced
cre
aaLvvov’.
wodi-fted
(2) NatL-trL £aLi4ws klc4Ve beei
draw a line between the premises and the conclusion, much like the
line
This line shows that the premises
ioit esoped
“,utral’ saLwov -for food.
people or things they stand for
Finally, write
if geet a1t w.odi-fi&
Other logi
(which means therefore)
1
s a basketb ill plaier, Michael Jordan had a umque onih nation
of grace, speed, poaei and competitlae desire He had more NBA
scoring titles than anyone else He retired with the NBAs highest
scoring ai erage Theretore, Michael Jordan is the greatest basket
b ill player of all time
h/it’
t froni \BA
i
2
prJ iP as
fEazizoi
1
\ Bit L
1J /aelJor t” B
html
rs/iordanjito
/ajt
camihiitoryp
nba
d ntp /wcw
Someonc who cint get enough to eat clearly Iiaes in poieit But
someone who can’t afford the things that his or her cociefl’ re
gards as necessities also li cc in pm erts Wealthier societies will
regard more things as necessities than poorer societies ‘Thus, the
12
Rule 2: Develop your ideas in a natural order
Rule 2: Develop your ideas in a natural order
“poverty line,” which is the amount of money someone must have
to count as “non-poor,” will be higher in a wealthier society than
in a poorer society.
Adaptec/from: J)avid Phillips, Qiality of Litè: Concept, Policy, and Practice
(Abingden, UK’ Rout/edge, 2006j. 110
people.This is not the result of older people generally being more
interested in politics than younger people. Opinion polls from the
mid-197 show that younger people used to
s
1940s through the 0
of
be at least as well informed about politics as the older people
their time were.
I
5
Adapted from: Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone (22w York:
Simon & Schuster 2000f 36
S
3.
Investigators from the Bigfoot Researchers Organization have
either glimpsed or heard Bigfoot on twenty-seven out of thirty
Bigfoot-scouting expeditions in the United States and Canada.
Dr. Krantz, one of the investigators, believes that Bigfoot is a spe
cies ot primate known as a Gigantopithecus. Therefore, Bigfoot
really does exist.
du “feb ‘roa Ac
4.
7.
Jo i/ed Pr,’ s
Teass Heads’ 1I1 hi,, vi t S rch for Big fool
FOXlVews,com,Jun 27,2007, httpc//wwwfoxnews.com/story/
0,2933,286879,00 html
Smaller high schools are better than larger high schools since
smaller high schools have been shown to have higher graduation
rates and a higher proportion of students going on to college.
New York City has broken a number of large high schools up into
several smaller schools.
Adapted,t’rOtfl: Steven F. Landshurg. The Armchair Economist (New York:
Simon & Schuster, 1994), 5
8.
Adaptedfrorn: DavidM, Herszenhorn, “Gates Charity Gives $51 Million
to City
to Start 67 Schools. “New York Times, Sep 18. 2003, t
htt6:
z
azcrw.
t nytimescom/
2003/09/18/nyreiosz<gsstes—charity—gives—51-mi/!ion--to—cio—to—start
In 1908, something flattened eight hundred square miles of forest
in a part of Siberia called Tunguska. Theories abound about “the
Tunguska event.” Some people say it was a UFO. Some even say
it was a tiny black hole. Recently, however, scientists discov
ered
that a lake in the area has the shape of an impact crater that would
have been created by an asteroid or comet. So, the Tunguska event
was caused by an asteroid or comet.
Adaptedfrom: Paul Rincon. AFire zn the Ski: Tunguska at 100,” BBC
News,
Jun 30, 2008, blip:/7news,bbc,co, ukj2/hi/liience/nature/7470283,stm
6.
‘There is a “generation gap” in Americans’ knowledge of politics.
‘That is to say, older people know more about politics than younger
Human nature is not inherently good. Human nature consists of
those human traits that are spontaneous; these things cannot be
learned. Thus, if something can be learned, then it is not part of
human nature. Yet, goodness is not spontaneous; people must
learn how to be good.
Adaptedfrom’Xi171Zi Xunzi. in Readings in Classical Chinese Philosophy.
Indianapoiiv
2nd A., edited by PhiiJ Ivanhoe and Bryan W van Nossien
298—99
2005),
company,
Publishing
J-Idckett
-67-schools,html
5.
All cars should have a spear mounted on the steering wheel, aimed
directly at the driver’s chest, After all, we should do everything we
can to encourage cautious driving. Since people behave much
more cautiously when they know that their life is on the line,
steering wheel—mounted spears wod make people drive much
more cautiously.
9.
It is possible for someone to wonder whether her life is meaning
fril even if she knows that she has enjoyed her life.’Ihis shows that
a meaningful life is not the same as an enjoyable life. At the same
time, someone who is ‘ienated from her life or feels like her life
is pointless, even if she is doing things that might seem worth
while from an objective perspective is not leading a meaningful
life. This shows that a meaningf life is not the same as a life
spent on objectively worthwhile projects. Ul of this shows that
neither enjoyment nor objectively worthwhile projects considered
separately from the other, are sufficient for a meaningful life.
Lk,”
Adaptefrom: Susan JIS’ “Happiness and Meaning: Two Aspects of/he Good
21!
(1997).
14
Policy
&
Social Philosophy
13
14
Rule 2: Develop your ideas in a natural
order
10,
Suppose that Tim learns that his grandfather had
done some
thing terrible in the l920s, several years hefbre the
hfrth of Tims
mother Suppose also that Tim has invented a time
machine. Vhi1e
it may seem that Tim could go back
in time and ndl his grand—
hmther to prevent him from doing this terrible thing, in
fact, it is
impossible for Tim to ll his grandfather, The past has
already
happened. It cannot be changed, Since Tim’s grandparents
had
Tims mother, who went on to have Tim, it must he
the case that
Tim did not ii his grandfather,
Adapted JAm David Lewi “The Paradoxes ofTime
Thavvi “American
Philosorhied Qrirterjv 13 197(.14cocn
Need more practice? Following the steps described in
the “Tips fbr sue
ccss”section, outline the arguments from Exercise Set 1,1 in
premise—andconclusion form, Work with a friend or classmate if you
want to be able to
compare your work with someone else’s, For even
more practice. do the
same thing with the argoaments in the editorials,
op-eds, and letters to the
editor that you found on your favorite newspaper’s \Veb
site,
Exercise Set 1.3: Analyzing visual arguments
Objecüve: To help von recognize short arguments in visual
materials.
Instrucfions: Go to the companion Web site for this book,
Click on the
link for “Chapter I” and then on the link for
“Exercise Set I 3.” You will
get a list of links to images and videos. Vrite a
premIse_and_conchision
outline of the arThlment that you think the image or
video is. trying to
commun1clte
Tips for success: W are constantly bombarded by
visual material—from
billboards to artwork to online videos—that aims to
persuade us of some
thing. Sometimes the material tries to persuade us to
do something or to
Rule 2: Develop your ideas in
a
natural order
wane something. Sometimes it tries to persuade us to beli,eve something.
You can think of many of these materials as alcoa,’ arpumcnfs. “flies’ don’t
necessarily present their premises and conclusions in words, hut many of
them still can be read as otibring reasons in support of conclusions—that
ls, as argaments.
Vhen you’re thinking about a visual argument, it’s entirely up to you
1
to present the argument’s ideas in a natural order, The first thing :eou
is tOe
What
argument,
visual
the
of
conclusion
the
determine
is
need to do
your
ask
to
need
you’ll
‘Then
believe?
or
do
to
you
get
argument trying to
self whether the picture or video offers you reasons to believe that conclu
sion. If so, these will be the premises of the argument,
‘lo identify these premises. think about what the connection is be.
tween the images that mu are seeing and the conclusion that those images
are meant to support. To take an extremely simple case, suppose an adver
tisement shows an athlete enjoying a Sprite. ‘The conclusion of this visual
argument is that iou ought to drink Sprite too. What is the connection
between the image of the athlete drinking Sprite and the claim that iou
ought to drink it? If the athlete takes a sip after a hard game or workout.
perhaps the message is that Sprite is especially refreshing. In that case, the
argument might be something like this: “Sprite is especiai.i.y refreshing.
‘iou like refreshing drinks. Therefore. you ought to drink Spri’re.”Or maybe
1 na iw a od
rum athlete is itt1ng around sith her triends a ci mac re a
might
be that hip
message
the
case,
that
In
Sprite.
rune and drinking
sport—
athlete’s
particular
this
like
who
young adults—especially people
drink
should
you
people,
drink Sprite and that if iou want to be like these
Sprite too.
Different people are likely to come up with ditierent interpretations
of each visual argument. In fact. you can probably come up with different
interpretations of each one yourself Don’t worry about finding the one and
only correct interpretation.Just focus on finding a plausible interpretation—
one that the creator of the visual argument might recognize as the message
he or she was trYing to send.
‘The exercises for this exercise set, including a sanoe exercise, can he
found on the companion Web site for this book,
Need more practice? Look through a recent maaazsnc or’ a Web ite that
includes advertisements. Analyze the visual arg’,imenrs offered in each of
the advertisements that you encounter.
i5
16
Rul
3 Start from r flab e p
Rule 3: Start from reliable premises
m e
Instructions: Rewrite the following arguments in premise-and-conclusion
form, lust as you did in Exercise Set 1.2. Then, state whether each premise
is reliable and explain wh or why not.
4
Start from reliobte premises
No matter how well you argue from premises to conclusion, your
conclu
sion will be weak if your premises are weak.
Nobody in the world today is really happy. ‘Therefore, it seems
that human beings are just not made for happiness. Why
should we expectwhat we can never find?
‘The premise of this argument is the statement that nobody in the
world today is really happy. Sometimes, on certain rainy afternoons or
in
certain moods, this may almost seem true. But ask yourself if this
premise
really is plausible. Is nobody in the world today really happy? Ever? At
the
very least, this premise needs some serious defense, and very likely it
is just
not true. This argument cannot sho then, that human beings are
not
made for happiness or that you or I should not expect to be happ
Sometimes it is easy to start from reliable premises. You may have
well-known examples at hand or reliable sources that are clearly in agree
ment. Other times it is harder. If you are not sure about the reliability
of a
premise, you may need to do some research and/or give an argument
for
the premise itself (see Rule 31 for more on this point). If you find
you can
not argue adequately for your premise(s), then, of course, you
need to try
some other premise!
Exercise Set 1.4: Identifying reliable and unreiabte premises
Objective: To give you practice recognizing reliable starting points for
arguments,
a
4
4
Tips for success: Arguments are both a way to convince others of some
thing and a way to learn new things. A good argument leads you (and/or
others) from premises that you already accept to conclusions that you
(and/or they) did not previously accept. To do that, however, arguments
riced to start from premises that you or they already accept. Furthermore.
when two or more people hold different views on a topic. they can’t have a
productive discussion unless they start from some kind of common ground.
Theret-ore, an important part of learning to give good arguments is learn
inc to recognize which premises are reliable and widely acceptable starting
points. Deciding whether a starting point is reliable and acceptable in this
way can be tricky, and can vary with the situation, but there are some rules
of thumb that can guide your thinking.
First, widely accepted facts are usually reliable starting points. For
instance, it’s widely accepted that there is a wide variety of species on Earth
and that these species resemble each other in various ways. Those facts can
provide reliable starting points for an argument about evolution.
It’s worth finding out how widely accepted your “facts” really are,
though. Something that seems like common knowledge to you might be
widely doubted in other social circles, other parts of the countr or other
narts of the world. For instance, it is widely accepted in many parts of the
world that the variety of species we see today evolved by natural selection,
but there are also social circles and parts of the world where that is fre
quently denied. If you are addressing your argument to someone who de
nies what you regard as a widely accepted fact, you may need to find another
starting point for your argument.
Second, premises that are supported by appropriate testimony or
sources are usually reliable. FOr instance, if a trustworthy person tells you
that she has been to Brazil and seen pink dolphins living in the Amazon
River, you could count “‘There are pink dolphins living in the Amazon River”
as a reliable premise.
There are also guidelines to help you spot unreliable premises. Prem
ises that are widely known to be false or easily shown to he false are un
reliable. (Again, though, remember that what’s “widely known to be false”
in one context may be generally accepted elsewhere, Remember your audi
ence!) Other premises are unreliable not because we know that they’re
false but because we don’t know, or can’t know, whether they’re true. Wild
generalizations and overly vague claims fall into this category So do con
troversial claims offered without support, and claims that we could not
17
18
Rule 3: Mart from reliable premises
Rule 3: Marl from reliable premises
possibly verih Remembei though, that there a difference
between claim
ing that a premise is unreliable and claiming that it is false.
Saving that a
premise is unreliable could just mean that von don’t know whether
it’s true.
Later niles in this book, especially the rules in Chapter IV
about using
sources, will give you further and more developed guidelines
for finding
reliable starting-points, Rule 31 will so invite you to offer additional
rea
sons for seemingly unreliable premises, turning those premises
into wellsupported conclusions of their own arguments. But all of that is still to
come.
For noc just look at the premises before you, and use your
common sense,
Notice that the response does not attempt to say whether the conclusion is reliable. Rule 3
is about the reliability o premises. You do not need to comment on the arguments conclusrons
in this exercise set.
Anybody could become a zombie—a relative, a friend, or even a
neighbor. Zombies are constantly looking to eat the brains of the
living. ‘This is why you should always he prepared to escape from
or fight back against a zombie attack.
Sample
Computers will soon take over most human tasks, Mter l, Deep
Blue, a corn
pute beat Garry Kasparo the World Chess Champion. in
1997. And if com
puters can defrat the best human alive in an activi that symbolizes
intelligence
more than any other, then surely their supremacy in evething
else we do is not
far off
AaaitedJrocn Editorial
Washington Post, May 6,
Teep tt.e, a ovpcte beat the Wort ehess Ch w’pio. iv 1,55y
() f
ter ca. beat th best hLutak1. aU.’e li ohess, tli&. the.r
everjtii.g eLse we oo is ot far off
iierefore (3) .o’1.tpters wilL £0014. ta1e oier i.ost hvi’a. tasks.
Adaptea’ from: “Zombies in Plain English, “You Tube, Oct 23, 2007,
http://www.youtube.com/watchtv=bVnfyradcPY
2.
1997, ht&½w
(i)
Adaptec/from: Robin Dunbag “Yozlve Got to Have (150) Frienclc,”
preva G
is rtliable, sh.ee it is a wide4 ac ate facat, (if
the arg
et were li
tece for a a ie14e that oio.’t iow about reep
a.es ‘J torij, the avthor woui4
probabL wav.t to oi,t to ..ews reports abott the atcli
as a wa of sjzportli4g the
pre5se with sorces.)
PreLse (i)
New York Tirne Dec 25 2010, ht/p.’//wwot. nvtimcaceml20l0/12/26/
opinirn/2Odunharhtinl
3.
Prew,ise (2), howevp is nreLiabLe, it is i
acsibL.e s?e Latiok. to saj that
i ohess svggests that “spreae i evethi
else we do” isjt arov
After all, e4iess is a verb iffrret Gic o-f activit fro
.ost thli.gs that
(‘Ttiiv& of the frees betweev chess akl4 writuig
a victor
the oorr
as o.
a vovel, oo,ig a eaL
basttbaLL, or avigatig the soalaLjvles of a school
orof.ce.)
ic response takes a nuanced ap/roach to premise (1),
explaining that the premise is not
only wide/v known, hut easily ver’ed in case aiyone is
uncertain about it ( sad dayfor
chessfans everywhere.) ibe real problem, just as this response
says, is with the reliability of
premise (‘2),
Social networking sites have revolutionized the way we interact
with our friends. Such Sites allow people to stay in contact with
hundreds or even thousands of people. Human nature, however,
prevents us from having meaningful relationships with that many
people. Therefore, most of your “friends” on those sites are not
people with whom you have meaningful relationships.
Radioactive materials are materials that decay into other materi
als. For instance, certain isotopes of carbon are radioactive; they
decay into different isotopes of carbon. By looking at the ratios
of radioactive materials to the products of radioactive decay in a
piece of rock, we can estimate the age of the rock fairly well. This
process is called “radiometric dating.” Radiometric dating reveals
that some large rock formations in the Earth’s crust are up to four
billion years old. Thus, the Earth itself is at least four billion years
old.
Adapted from: G. Brent Da/rgm le, The Age of the Earth (Palo Alto:
Stan/rd Universit, Press, 19941.399
4.
There are other advanced civilizations in our galaxy To see why
this must be so, consider the following facts: There are billions
of stars in our galaxy and many of them probably have planets
19
20
Rule 3: Start from reliable premises
Rule 3: Start from reliable premiseS
around them. Some planets may develop life, and
some of those
planets will probably develop intelligent life capa
ble of producing
advanced technology.
8.
,4s/!/:: “Car, to’m en Ivi anne! C:Uzatisiss. UnThp
e. Fe!’ 2t 2005,
http://vizswemotthe.com/x.:aav=i0PWfJkWcM
5.
Some people scoff at a liberal education as a waste of
time. But a
true education is not just about accumulating know
ledge. it’s also
about educating one’s emotions. A liberal arts educ
ation exposes
students not only to history, science, and math, hut also
to the lit
erature and arts that speak more directly to our emo
tions. ‘Thus, a
liberal arts education is an essential part of any ‘real”
education.
daptedfrom: Martha Nussbawn, Nor for Profit:
Why I)emocracy Needs the
Ado pte,Jfronu lIons .Hoizen Ghosts: True E.ncountcrs wIth the Worid Be.on 6.
(Ve;a Pert; Black Dot f3L;a cotta; P:,bd sO ‘a I
p
Scholars have begun looking at the colonial perio
d as a way of
understanding economic development. During the coloni
al period,
several European powers established colonies in the
Americas.
Some of these colonies have become economically succes
sful, while
others have not. ‘The most striking difference between
those that
succeeded and those that did not is. that the successful
colonies
had much lower levels of economic and social inequalit
y than the
unsuccessful colonies. Therefore, we suggest that ineq
uality hin
ders economic development.
Act ptec/ Fern; Stanley F Enterrnan nsa/Kenneth
B. Soksleif “Colonialism,
Joe quality, cmi Lsn—Ruii lOths ofD
prne
5
eve
nt.
l “us Abh fit t: Baneijee,
P ‘a” 10 r
U 1 TO ‘
Erie and
Poe”
“
‘“..
n
is
Ox! fed University Psyss, 2006), 37-57
7,
To date. smallpox is the only disease that has been com
pletely elim
mated from the face of the Earth. We are getting
closer to the day
that polio is eliminated too. Polio used to he a serio
us problem in
many parts of the world. As of 1988, polio remained
endemic in
only six countries: Niger, Egypt, India, Pakistan. Afgh
anistan, and
Nigeria. By 2006, two of those countries—’-Niger
and Egypt—
were polio-free, according to the World Health Orga
nization.
,litai’tedfrs’n; Mark Prendeigrait. Inside the Outbre
aks: ‘The Elite Medical
Detectives of the Epidemic Intelligence Service
!JVese York;
U
It n tl
lii’
et 7010 ?4o
‘‘
Yori should be a vegetarian. Every time i’ml eat meat, your meal
is the result of the sufibring and death of an animal. Besides, it’s
disgusting to put a piece of a dead animal’s carcass into sour
mouth and chew it. ere is plenty of great vegetaran ibod, in
cluding tasty meat alternatives. Also, vegetarianism is healthier
than eating meat. One more reason to be a vegetarian C that you’d
be joining the company of a long list of incredible people, from
Leonardo da Vinci, Isaac Newton, and Thomas Edison to Paul
McCartne Shania Twain, and Tobey I aguire.
Humanities ;Prvieeuo: Pri’zeete Unis:nnitt Press. 2010)
6.
Despite what the skeptics would have you believe, many people
are capable of seeing ghosts. Ghosts are real, and anyone with the
psychic ability known as extrasensory perception (ESU) is capable
of seeing them. ESP is a real phenomeuofl according to Professor
]oseph Rhine of Duke Universit in fact, about half of li people
have ESP, although many never realize it.
Adaptec/from. “Reasons to Be G,eiar)an. “U:, The. [a’: 2hC ido’;’
5
.
f
/
th[Vt.t6d,
0
UtfDnOg
www.yentz:he 0
10.
Toe Bureau ofJustice Statistics reports that at least three hundred
thousand children in the United States are forced into prostitu
tion and other sex-trafficking crimes every yearJhey estimate the
average age of entry into forced prostitution is rtvelr e years old.
Forcing a child to work asa prostitute is wrong. it is a travest
that eliminating child prostitution is not a bigger priority for our
countr)e
Adapted from; Angela Ce/well, letter to the eAton Tulsa World, hOe 23, 2010,
/,ffO.//wWw.
Need more practice? Go back to the arguments presented in Exercise
Sets 1.1 and 1.2 and decide which of their premises are reliable. For even
eh site for this book and click on the “Chapter F’
more practice go to the T
ea of\\Lh ore ti am Con e Cr0’ e debare
link
to a 1
link You 11 hnd a
Find debates that interest you and read the arguments presented in those
debates. Determine which premises are reliable and wh.
21
22
Rule 4 Be concrete and concise
Rule 4: Be concrete and concise
Be concrete and
of the original quotation Just tr to exprecs the
s the exact .ording
1
upr it
y as possible.
ideas in the passage as simply and directl
concise
Avoid abstract, vague, and general terms, “We hiked for hours in the sun”
is a hundred times better than “It was an extended period of
laborious
exertion,” Be concise too, Mr elaboration just loses everyone in a fog of
words.
NO:
For those whose roles primarily involved the performance of
services, as distinguished from -assumption of leadership re
sponsibilities, the main pattern seems to have been a response
to the leadership invoking obligations that were concomi
tants of the status of membership in the societal community
and various of its segmental units, The closest modern anal
ogy is the military service performed by an ordinary citizen,
except that the leader of the Egyptian bureaucracy did not
need a special emergency to invoke legitimate obligations.3
YES:
In ancient Egypt the common people were liable to be con
scripted for work.
Sample
the ambulatory limbs of this par
Of this relatively- limited extension of one of
also be possible to declare that
ticular male of the species Homo sapiens, it might
of the human species as-avl()1e,
a relatively much larger extension of the reach
taking place at this point in time.
50 to speak, is also concurrently
g First Step on Moon,”
Adapted from: Apollo ii TVBroadcast—NeilArmstron
ll’
icuY =C
em
aloe’
‘r’,e7ub Jul20 2009 htt
I
ds(s aswai.L atcp -for a oav Is al-so a gIat Leap -for
hefirst setjbot on the moon, is,
NeilArmstrongs original statemen4 which he made when
mankind. “In the “complexifc’d” form
“?hat one small stepJr /aJ man, one giant leap Jbr
limited extension ofone ofthe ambula—
first clause (“Of this relatively
-1 this quotation, the
species Homo sapiens’2 corresponds to the phrase
tOr( limbs of this particular male ofthe
ion correspondc to “one giant
“That one small step Jbr [a] man,” and the rest of the quotat
leapfIr mankind.”
thatc okay. It says whatArin—
The camp/c response isn’t exact/v whatArmstrong said and
matters.
st-rang said in a cieat straightforward way. That what
Exercise Set 1,5: Decomplexifying artificially abstruse quotafjon
Objective: To help you recognize and avoid overly elaborate writing.
Iflstructions: Each passage in this exercise consists of a famous quote that
has been rewritten using overly abstract, vague, or obscure terms.
Rewrite
the quote in simpler language.
Tips for success: Start by reading the passage in its entirety to get a sense
for the meaning of the whole passage. Then, go back over the passage
phrase
by phrase, tcing to figure out what each phrase means. Rewrite each
phrase in the simplest language you can find, deleting words or phrases
that don add to the meaning of the sentence, Dont worry about coming
I
nion
I seem to have the distinct impression that my canine compa
phical
geogra
the
within
and I are no longer physically located
known as
confines of the midwestern American state generally
Kansas.
Angeles:
g
Adapted from: The Wizard of Oz. directed by Victor Flemin (Los
Metro-Goidwin-Mayer, 1939)
plish
Do not inquire as to what it is that your counts might accom
to
on your behalf but instead inquire what actions you might take
own.
further the interests of the country that you regard as your
20, 1961
.4daptedfrom:John F K(nnedy, inaugural Address, Jan
3. Tcott Parsons, Societies: Esnlutionary and companstiee rspecfives
e
3
I
(Englewood
, NJ: Pren&e Hall, 1966), p. 56, The quotaon and the reitten version
5
Cliff
that
s
follow come from Stanislas dres, Social Sciences as Srce’ (New
York: St. Manjn
Press, 1972), Ch, 6.
23
le—
Being able to express oneself in as concise a way as possib
e to
feasibl
is
it
that is, using the fewest, plainest words with which
24
Rule 4: Be concrete and concise
Rule 5: Build on substance, not overtone
communicate the essential meaning of one’s thought—is at the
very core ota knack for repartee.
9.
Athaptcd/rkm: William Shakespeare, Hamlet 2.2
4.
Putting aside all prevarication, my most beloved one, it
would be
utterly impossible fbr me, even with great effort, to care any
less
than I do at this precise moment.
Influential Women of All Time (New York: Citadel Press, 20021,258
Gone with the Wind. ditedh, G-to F/gin ‘Lc
10.
r 1939)
Metro—Go/dern_ly
e
0
5.
XVe must strive to exhibit in our own persons the sorts
of altera
tions that we most fervently desire to observe in the
world that we
inhabit.
/
My maternal grandmother’s daughter was in the frequent
habit
of informing me that the period between birth and
death is simi
lar to a container of cocoa-based confections.
iidapted/i’om: Forrest Gurnp, directed Robert Zemeckis (Los
by
Ante/es:
Paramount Pictures, 1994,)
7.
Regularly turning in for the night at a fairly early hour
combined
with the practice of awakening at an hour that is earlier
than the
hour at which most others arise, will tend to the
acquisition of
such desirable personal features as good physical
constitution, a
comfortable financial situation, and the sort of discernment
and
other related intellectual abilities that conduce to earning
the re
spect of others.
It has been my constant practice to rely upon the
compassionate
actions of people with whom I had not yet become
acquainted
prior to the performance of said action.
Adapted Ooui: A Streetcar Named Desire, directed liv F/ia
Kazan (Burbank CA:
Wirn,’rliroc 1951)
Need more practice? Make a list of famous quotations, well-known song
lyrics, titles of famous books, etc. Have a friend or classmate do the same.
Rewrite each item on the list in the overly abstract, complex stie used in
this exercise. Trade “complexified” lists with your friend or classmate and
try to decipher the items on his or her list. For even more practice, repeat
this activity with the arguments from other exercises in this book: Rewrite
each premise and conclusion in an overly complex style and challenge your
classmate to figure out what the argument says.
Build on substance, not overtone
Adaptedfrom: Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard Aimanack
(1732; repr,
Nw York Skyhorse Publishing, 2007), 13
8.
I harbor an aspiration that, at some point in the future, my four
offspring, who are currently fairly young, will be assessed not ac
cording to the pigmentation of their skin but by considering the
character traits that they possess.
Aa’aptedfrorn: Martin Luther King,Jr, speech in Washington, DC, Aug28, 1963
Adaptedfrom: Mohandas Gandh quoted in John McGain &Mark
Salte
Character Is Destiny (Aw York.’ Random House, 2005), 14
6.
A female member of the human species who finds herself without
the company of a male of the species is akin to an aquatic, scalecovered vertebrate with gills and fins that has not the possession
of a pedal-driven, two-wheeled vehicle that is powered by a rider
sitting astride a frame to which the wheels are attached,
Adaptedfrom: Gloria Steinem, quoted in Deborah C, Felde The 100 Most
Offer actual reasons; don’t just play on the overtones of words.
‘5
a
NO:
Having so disgracefully allowed her once-proud passenger
railroads to fade into obscurity, America is honor bound to
restore them now!
‘This is supposed to be an argument for restoring (more) passenger rail
service. But it offers no evidence for this conclusion whatsoever, just
some emotionally loaded words—shopworn words, too, like a politician on
25
26
Rule 5: Build on substance, not overtone
automatic. Did passenger rail “fade”hecause of someth
ing “America” did or
didnt do? What was ‘disgraceful” about this? Man
y “once—proud” insti
tutions outlive their times, after all—-we’re not oblige
d to restore them all.
What does it mean to say America is “honor hound
” to do this? Have
promises. been made and broken? By whom?
Much can he said for restoring passenger rail, especially
in this era when
the ecological and economic costs of highways are
becoming enormous.
‘The problem is that this argument does not say it. it leaves
the emotional
charge of the words to do all the work, and therefore
really does no work
at all. yVe’re left exactly where we started. Overtones
max sometimes per
suade even when they shouldn’t, of course—hut remem
ber, here we are
looking for actual, concrete evidence.
Likewise, do nor try to make your argument look good
by using emo
tionally loaded words to label the other side. Genera
lly people advocate a
position Sac serious and sincere reasons. Try to figure
out their view—try
to understand their reasons—even if you disagree
entireh For example,
people who question a new technology are probably
not in favor of “going
back to the caves,” (‘What are they in favor of? Maybe
you need to ask.)
Likewise, a person who believes in evolution is not claimi
ng that her grand
parents were monkeys. (And again: what does she think?
) In general, if you
can’t imagine how anyone could hold the view you
are attacking, probably
you just don’t understand it yet.
Exercise Set 1,6: Diagnosing loaded languag
e
Objective: To train you to recognize and avoid loaded
language.
Instructions Look ton Jo ide.i language —-th r
u e aionoaalh charged
words or phrases—in each of the following argum
ents. If the argument
contains loaded language. indicate which words
or phrases are loaded and
suggest a less loaded way of saving the same thing.
if the passage does not
contain any loaded language, say so.
Tips for success: A good argument should stand
on the strength of its
premises and the connection between the premises
and the conciusion—not on the beauty of its rhetoric or th.e emotional
charge of the way it’s
presented. Learning to recognize loaded language
helps you avoid being
taken in by arguments that sound rood but lack substan
ce; nt also helps you
Rule 5: Build on substance, not overtone
avoid giinng arguments yourself that sound goed but don’t actually movide
ood reasons for their conclusions.
Lc’aded language comes in both n.cgative a.nd positivc varieties. ihat
s, some loaded language carries negative emotional overtones. It casts an
call:ing bankers
i&a, a person, or whatever in a negative light. For instance,
“corporate pirates” makes them sound h-ad. Other loaded language cartles
positiVe emotional overtones. For instance, cabin a camp for holding pfis—
oiners of war a “pacification center” makes it sound good—’Thriost like, the
I-dud of place you’d want to go for a relaxing acation. Look out Or both
kinds of loaded language.
Some loaded language is subtle. Its emotional powor may depend on
the context in which it is used. For inatauce, the term I-ru League seine! is.
not necessarily emotion ally charged; it refers to one of a specific group of
American universities. However, imagine m’o politicians in a debate. If one
s hoW, I ma not h n e gone to an La I eague v hool tike u opponent
the term Ivy League since/suddenly has an air of elitism and privi
but
lege. It can make the politiciais opponent seem out of touch with ordinary
people. Look out for subtle loaded language too,
When it comes to suggesting less loaded ways of saving the same
thing, look for terms that carry less—and ide-ally, no—emotional charge.
Fur instance, if you’re t’king about doctors who perform abortions, don’t
call them “baby killers.” A phrase like that nsostly just plays on our feclings.
Many people think that performing abortion and killing babies are itnpor
tandy different, and so they would not accept it as a neutral descrlptlofl.
On the other hand, you shouldit call them “doctors who help women with
medical problems” either. To people who think abortion is iriurder, this
glosses over a tremendous moral difference hen-seen doctors who’ erform
abortions and those who don’t. ‘Instead, just call them “doctors who perform
abortions.
,
.
.“,
27
28
Rule 5: Build on substance, not overton
e
Ru’e 5: Build on substance, not overtone
i
Sample
rt
Certain irresponsible American politicians have
been spewing lies about the lat
est attempts at reform. Whether these lies
come from a combination of stupidity
and a hysterical imagination or from cleverness
and a willingness to exploit in
nocent Americans for personal political gain
, these lies must be exposed for the
damaging falsehoods that they are.
Adapeedfrom: Keith
O/bermann, Countdown with Keith Olbermann, MSN
BC,
Aug10, 2009
fln argU%e.t t. fLL of Loaded Lagt.4.ag c.aLLi
e.
&g the
tic.as “iocLbLe”
i.aes thew. sov4 bad witwt et jiig wia
t tkei’re c(oig wrov.g it c.ot14 be
ceLeted witkwttt affeetivig the aett4aL e.b
tae of th& arg tet. “Spewivg ties” is ar..
eotioaLtj e’Jocative wat.j of aii.g “aug
faLse £tate%eks.” speeJ.atig abo.tt
wkiethertke “Lie.c” oe fro “sttcpLdLtj ai.4
a k terieaL iagi.atio” or “a wiLLi
v..e.s to eqLoit i wc.e’..t Aerieas” i.aes
the oLitialas 5o1.u’.4
cctabLe, or
eviL, b.ct it doe.c’t actaLL add aj
fac.ts to s 1
soft the c.ov-thsLov-. ve worse, it
fatseL stggests that stwpL(it a i4 aLi
se are the ovL.j pos.ci.bte .oti/es for these
oLitiala.s’ statei.ets. 1iat wkiote eLai..s
e c.a be cat, too. ‘the arg et 4
c.OL.L1c c.I.aiw
sikJL that soe poLiticJ.as are w.a).li.g
faLse state.ets abot4.t the Latest attel4kpts at
reforw a4 that tkie faLsthood of tkiose stat
et.tets skocLd be wade artotkepbLi
.c
This response identfles spec’ftc instances ofloa
ded language. It explains how each instance is
emotionally charged and recommends an alter
native. In cases where the loaded language
addc nothing substantive to the argument,
this response rightly recommends that the load
ed
language be deleted
Notice that in rephrasing Olbermannc state
ment, this response arrives at a neutral stat
e
ment that may still not be true. That is, his
claim is that some politicians are makingfalse
statements about the latest attempts
at reform. It remains to be seen fthev are or
are not;
now wed expect Olbermann to go on to offer
some evidence. The point of identfjiing and
neutralizing loaded language is simply to bring
us to the point ofrecognizing the need for
evidence in this relativejv open—minded way
rather than being so worked up over the alleg
ed
lie—spewing and irresponsibility that we dont
have the breathing room to even notice that
no evidence has yet been offered.
1.
Religious fanatics lost the battle on antigay discrimination in
the military. This isn’t the end of their
dangerous influence,
though. Now that they’ve seen that their
hatemongering against
p
.
i
in a au
I
t
‘..t
t.
n
h
vj
t
ctep up
I
Adcf’tedfrom:Juan Cole, Senate Reteal gIDAI)T in Global Context ‘Ig/irmed
CwismenP Dec ..19, 2010, httpc//sa jz.sanco/a cc 201 0/1 2/senate- peal
_o*Y1adt_in—globa/-ConieXts’tml
Of course I’m going to beat Hen’ Cooper! lie’s nothing! He’s a
tramp! He’s a bum! I’ll knock him out in five rounds—no, three!
AdspteaJ5Oro: MuhammadAli Engagieu in Some of’IJis P,nn ens lAnk Ta/k.”
1sTzthe,.NCv 11. 2010,
The dirty little secret behind factory farms’ profits—namely, that
there’s no good reason for their monstrously cruel mistreatment of
animals—is getting out. Since morally decent people abhor sense
less animal cruelty, people evernvhere are turning against factory
r n.
AI pied ISo’o; d1y!a Engei Jr Anima/Advocates’ Successes Have gctory
F2rmcrs Running Scared ‘Animal Eth,cs, Feb 6, 200’, http:Aninaleihtcs
If you are trying to lose weight, it’s important that you not skip
meals. if von skip meals, you’re likely to experience hunger and
Ood cravings later, making it harder for you to stick to your diet,
Instead of skipping meals to control your calorie intake, eat ap
propriately sized meals on a regular basis.
Adapted /5cm: Kandcc/Judge, ,Iiaxlne Barish—Wreden, and Karen K Beers,
The Complete Idiot’s Guide to the Secrets of Longevity 5v: York:
Penguin, 200Sf SO
Ve can all agree that the defendant bought the murder weapon
earlier that night. The pawn shop owner saw him kny it, and his
friends saw him carrying it. So how does that switchblade end up
in the old man’s chest if the boy didn’t kill him? Remember that
imagInative little fable that the boy told? He claims that the knife
fell through a hole in his pocket on his way to the movie theater.
You don’t really believe that, do you? ae boy’s a murderer, plaln
and simple.
Adaptedjiom: 12 Angry Men, dimcted b SAner Lumet (Los 4oge/es:
UnitedArtist, 1957)
29
30
6.
Seriously? Ybu’re going to try to murder a sweet, gentle, leaf
eating, doeeved deen and you’re worried about what kind of pants
ou’re going to wear? imagine ouie a deer. u’re prancing around
the forest, hu’re thirsç so you stop at a clear, gently gmrgling
stream to take a nice, refreshing drink and—BAv1! A bullet blows
your head wide open, splattering bloodied bits of brains all over
the place. Nou let me ask you: e von going to care what kind
of pants the jerk who shot you is wearing? No! It doesn’t matter
what kind of pants you wear!
AiIa;tcarcm: My
Cousin Vinnv,
iint&/ Si Jcoirhon Lin
7iit4o &ntoc Fux. 1992)
7.
Instead of boring you with the details of the new and innovative
accomplishments that I intend to achieve while I have the honor
and priiege of serving as your class president, let mc just say that
when you vote for rue, you won’t just he voting for Tracy Flick,
u’ll he voting to make this school a better place for you, for me,
and for all of our other wonderful classmates, That’s why you
should vote for me as your next student body president.
Idaptea from
8.
LIet no
2 e
It 4 xa de Pu iv U A ci
Paramount Pivures, 1999)
Some members of Congress don’t want to raise the federal debt
ceiling. They need to understand what that would mean for the
economu it would mean a bigger economic crisis than we saw in
2008. It would lead the U.S. government to default on its financial
obligations__the first default anywhere to be caused purely by
ins anitv.
Actuptcdj9oe
31
Rule 6: Use consistent terms
Rule 5: Build on substance, not overtone
eA
“a/c JJSek with 110
701
Chrissao
ABC/an 2,2011, ht!pI/
ahcnev’sm
For Exercises 9 and 10, find two examples of loaded ian age in the media,
online, in conversations with friends or famiin or amvhere else you can
find it. Print, copy. or write down your examples, identifi, the loaded words
or expressions in each example, explain why they’re loaded, and suggest
more neutral substitutes.
Need more practice? Find online news sites that allow comments on their
news stories. Look for instances of loaded lanage in the comments on
hich comnwnt are c\prein uht,mtive
e. ‘or
i sl’i Ii .u. ut pOUti1W cmotJuudI\ lodud .wcuaa
‘vu
neutral
nmu’e
‘md
n :ht ‘c’ uspTes-ing arcunlern. try
‘ct’v’
‘u an tell
u
Use consistent terms
‘a’ r ment rormaih hare a single theme or thread Th carry one
idea in clear and care
idea through several steps. ‘Therefore, couch that
using those very same
falivch men terms, and mark eac’h new step by
terms again.
NO:
When you learn about other cultures, you start to realize the
understanding of the di—
variety of human customs. This new
a new appreciation of
you
give
versitv of social practices may
pology tends to
anthro
g
other ways of life. Therefore, studyin
make you more tolerant.
YES:
cVhen you learn about other cultures, you start to realize the
variety of human customs. When you start to realize the van
become more tolerant.
etv of human customs, you tend to
Therefore, when you learn about other cultures, you tend to
become more tolerant,
The “Yes” version might not be stylish, but it is crystal clear, whereas
the “N o” version hardly seems like the same arment. One simple feature
ent repeats its key terms, while the
makes the difference: the “Yes” argum
“No” version uses a new phrase for each key idea every time the idea re
curs. For example, “learning about other cultures” is redescribed in the
“No” version’s conclusion as “studying anthropologv”The result is that the
connection between premises and conclusion is lost in the underbrush. It’s
interesting underbrush, maybe, but you are still liable to get stuck in it.
Re-using the same key phrases can feel repetitive, of course, so you
Don’t go there! The logic de
may he tempted to reach for your thesaurus.
pends on clear connections between premises and between premises and
conclusion. It remains essential to use a consistent term for each idea. If
mes you should be, of course—
you are concerned about style—as someti
then go for the tightest argument, not the most flowery
C
CD
32
C a t riEx r s s
ChaptellExercises
MOST CONCISE:
\Vhen ou learn about othe culture
ri tt of huma custom
make ‘,ou more tol ra t
‘
,
,a reali anon
u tart to real ze the
th t n r t nd t
cutr
s bstjtutc. Likewl5e, i the author would be better
ti
t e
p0 nt
r me d
t rm
ot is e
crc
t w hee one .0 JC.
and
,
1
-
can alk about stud in
nrhropol
d 1
1
u
h
‘.
s
\
he
a
:
t
ai
Training poor farmers in developing countries how to use organic farming prac
tice is an effective way to fight pover One organization HarambecKenYa,
has trained hundreds of farmers to use natural farming methods, such as drip
irrigaton using buckets These farmers have gone from food shortages to food
security and even food surpluses. Some are using the cash they earn by selling
their excess agricultural output to finance their children’s medical and educa
CHAPTER EXERCISES
tional ex000Ses,
Exercise Set .7: Evaluating letters to the editor
Adapted from: aml C’arper letter to the editor Christian Science Monitor. Jul19 2010, http//vvoc.
rit:cocomfl,mt,j1ttt0thEt0r20
IQ/O
Objective: To give you practice applying Rules 1—6.
Instructions: The following arguments are adapted from letters
to the edi
tor in various newspapers and magazines. State how well each
argument
follows each of the rules presented in this chapter.
Tips for success: For each argument, proceed through this chapte
r’s rules
systematically. ‘Think of each rule as asking a question about
the argument:
Does the argument make clear what the conclusion of the
argument is
(Rule 1)? Does it present ideas in a natural order (Rule 2)? Are
the premises
reliable (Rule 3)? Could the argument be clearer or more concis
e (Rule 4)?
If so, which words or expressions are unclear? What might
the author have
said instead? Does the argument use loaded language (Rule 5)?
If so, which
words or expressions are loaded? Can you suggest a more neutral
substi
tute? Does the author confuse the argument by using more
than one term
for the same idea (Rule 6)? If so, identify the inconsistent termin
ology and
suggest one term that the author might use throughout the argum
ent.
Be as specific as possible in explaining the ways in which the
argument
does or does not follow each rule. If you think some of the
premises are
unreliable, say which premises those are, Explain why those
premises are
unreliable. If the argument is unclear or wordy, say which words
or expres
sions could be improved. If the argument uses loaded langua
ge, say which
terms are loaded and briefly explain why they’re loaded.
You might even
the arget is oarL stated
lt’is Letter does a good job with iaLe i: e
a traL, derstad
i the rst setee. e fterthereSet5 th pre5e
abLe order (Le 2). 1ieprewi5e5 are ot et owto be reLiabLe, thogh (Le 3). It
wctd be better ithC athor it&d a soroe where we oLd veri her oLais abot the
arabee a’s progra sice that t pa ost
osists Arioav5) Most the Letter does a good job
exrieoe (a4 her adieoe 0
Li: “soe
with wLe 4 aLthogh the Last setee ooLd be si ifd to
for their ohiLdre’s
crsig the eash the ear bi scLLig their extra food to
dioaL ad schooL es.” e Letter does ot ee Loaded Lautage (iLe 5). it has a
yrtsbLevu-s oLLoWig Le : it es “orgavic” i the rst setece ad “tra’ i the
ad it uses “‘ght ‘poverL” i the ‘rst seteoe bert er.eroh eore eLaborate
phrases ad ideas ithe Last two.
are
fcs most of its claims about how
7
Notice that this responee addresses cue/s rule. it a/so iusti
instead
examP
of just saying, “ihe algument
For
rule.
le,
each
the
well
aTumentfbllo
ws
,fres not/Il/ow Rule 3, “it explains wht the premises a e not reliable. Fierthermore, it o’rs
a nuanced evaluation with rca ect to various rules. For instance, instance olsaying, “The
rot /
ifuine’ I fallo
i
t i
R’ 4 1 c
toll
it dre
g
concrete and
moie
t/,at
te
could
or th
0 mnt pa’
t bu pole tc out a spcjic s at no
Full 4 1
33
34
Chapter 1 Exercises
Chaøter I Exercises
Outlaw drug dealers don’t check to see how old their customers
are, They don’t care. Licensed dealers would check to make sure
that bevers weren’t underage. if marijuana were legalized, it would
nt. ou -nunu h\ 1 enwd uciier’ fhu leg thL1n niuijua
naould
actually make it harder for teenagers to get drugs.
and
for vaccinations, antibiotics, open-heart surgcrF chemotherapy,
Genome
Hum.an
the
that
surprise
it’s
no
otuan transpiants,Thus,
di uda e—
u ot
niin 3\
0
Pu tCt unnh tiou b
few oven
a
suIt in the incredible medical advances predicted by
enthusiastic scientIsts.
i-n
1ai2fthw: Rcith. G:-ei:c. letter te the caitar Christian Sien Monitor.
Oct 1 1, 2010. /
2010/101&Lettes—tathe-Ec/z2ow ti5ekiv-IssaeofOctbew1th2010..
2.
-
Ihe conquest of England by French-speaking Norm ans in 1066
completely transformed the English language. Consider Brown/f,’
written before the conquest. and C haucer’s The Canterbury Thies,
written a few centuries after the conquest. Well-educated modern
English speakers could understand The Ganterhurv Thies without
too much difficultu but they probably couldn’t understand a sin
gle line of Beowuf which was written in Old English.
Medi-a coverage about youth suicides usually misses the point
when it comes to the real cause of suicide. he media emphasizes
rrress: cold. dark winters: and academic or social challenges. But
most people who face those problems dodt kill themselves. he
real cause of suicide is mental illness. That’s’ what makes the dif-.
fhrence between the people who respond to those stresses by at
tempting suicide and those who don’t. To prevent suicide, socie
needs to provide better access to mental- health services and re
duce the stigma around the use of those services. Young people
are our fhmre. \Vhen we fail to mcimize their success, let alone
their chances of survival, we ikil ourselves and our countnr.
Ada jtedfFmc Robert He//am, letter to the editor The Economist, Ian 102010
3.
Politicians today are in love with 30-second sound bites.They run
screaming from anything requiring thoughtful, intelligent, or
honest discussion. ‘vVe ought to he ashamed of the level of dis
course in our politics. Instead of actual debate, we get nothing hut
innuendo and idiocy
ii
7.
Science, technolog engineering, and math education in the
United States is in a crisis. Incorporating engineering into the
curriculum can improve learning outcomes in technical fields;
Engineering makes abstract lessons about science and math more
engaging. including engineering activities also helps improve stu
dents’ imaginations.
it usuall takes at least 25 years for important scientific discover
ies to translate into big changes in health care, This was the case
M2r 25, 2010. Steps ‘query. nytimes.eoozc4st 0/hope- htm flees
Fight for your local library! Local libraries provide the public
with free, equitable access to formation.Vhets you need a hook
dr your child’s school report or want to learn how to- plant a Lear-.
den, train a pet, or repair a dryer, the library has the infhrmation
you needand librarians to help :‘ou find it. Furthermore, librar
Fr encourage people to read and learn fhr leasure. There are lim
its to what you can get on the Internet.
dittedfro ‘a: FeLon Possess, litter to tO ceditor Los Ane1es Times,
like 17. 2010. lte7L -Octe- oioc ow-once ness I
wea4e’thzv-2
0101
7
laFss.l1J 11
Ttocc’Lo,thlir, lette’ cc the e./Oo-r New rk Times. Oct29.
2010, httt’c.c%www.nytimes.eom/201a/1029/opinionc?29seience,html
ltcdom:
5.
F
=k5oDE1DF1E3AF936A1575000A966ODbd
‘a: Mo
oi LeRei, letter to the editor USA ]Odav, Oct 21, 2010
5
4.
Lcw F Rose’ errs ‘:4 H:,s42:scsn F Wilind. /,-ctss Fe ed:tor
tin:es.comlOl
5
o
0
0
6
7
O/
Times, Jon 25. 2010, httpc Owsc. 2
York
New
otsinion/lzveb26ge?Qme.htm’
S.
yVtrn countries claim tc’ value justice. democracy, and egali
tarianism.. Yet, the United Nations SecuriU’ Council’s permanent
36
Chapter I Exercises
Chapter I Exercises
nwmht rs ---l3ritaiu, tie
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oci v i t
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1 ho-c nuoLs aria cit -u:a ate i-ut cataloged
in .mv ut the taic1ard reference
ilLes. It
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thou_.h, they will tind Utt T’UI1IILatiofls mc /‘). I 70
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Need more practice? W
1 ii--a
t’’ rhi i’dj r ‘t i”
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tide whether the nttet
letter tI!lo’
rh ue
w ‘H
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letter,
t’i..’e l,,i
triends or ciascmates lfiou disagree about hoxi well a letter
o the rules, see if IOU can come to an igreement hi explaining
does or does not follow the nile.
letter
nW the
e
it
37
39
Rule 7: Use more than one example
Use more Than one example
Chapter II
Generalizations
a
-
-
.
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Women in earlier times were married very young. Juliet in
Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet was not even fourteen years
old. In the Middle Ages, thirteen was the normal age of mar
riage for a Jewish woman. And during the Roman Empire,
many Roman women were married at age thirteen or younger.
H’.
ht UJ(’1 ,Uil(
in he \ lidd!v .-\gcs,
HI
‘II
‘1
i/.
r
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,Lfld
n”
ci
.n
fi ‘l.
Roman
.tri
1st d.c pu
‘I rev
‘i’
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\,i’’’
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c.
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French frie aix unhealthy (high in far).
Therefore, all fdst foods are unhealthy.
Inuen
,llpiflCflt
‘Ru-aol’
1
1
I
1
:0
.
,
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be Ron an l’wnhe—to
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Juliet in Shakespeare’s play was not even fourteen years old.
Jewish women during the Middle Ages were normally mar
ried at thirteen.
Many Roman women during the Roman Empire were mar
ried at age thirteen or younger.
‘Therefore, women in earlier times were married very young.
It is helpftii to write short arguments in this way when we need to see ex
actly how they work,
When do premises like these adequately support a generalization?
One requirement. of course. is that the examples be accurate. Rernem
ber Rule 3: start from reliable premises! Ifjuliet wasn’t around fourteen, or
if most Roman or Jewish women weren’t married at thirteen or younger,
then the argument is much weaker. If none of the premises can be sup
ported, there is no argument at all. To check an argument’s examples, or
to find good examples for your own arguments, you may need to do some
research,
But suppose the examples are accurate. Even then, generalizing from
them is a tricky business. ‘The rules in this chapter offer a short checklist for
assessing arguments by example.
MiksbakeS are unhealthy (high in fat and sugar).
Deep-fried chicken and cheeseburgers are unhealthy (high in
Therefore, all fast foods are unhealthy.
it), hut it certainly
The “hs” version may still be weak (Rule 11 remrns to
version.
“No”
the
than
give’ you more to chew on, so to speak.
argument
In a generklization about a small set of things, the strongest
generalizatio
n about
houid consider all, or at least manY, of the examples. A
and a
instance,
for
them in turn,
vests siblings should consider each of
same,
generalization about all the planets in the solar system can do the
Generalizations about larger sets of things require picking out a sam—
married soung.
g!s. Wa certainly cannot list all women in earlier times who
of the rest.
examples
as
women
few
Instead, our arment must offer a
representativ
e
how
on
partly
How many examples are required depends
of
size
the
on
partly
they arc. a noint the next rule takes up. It also depends
examples.
the set being generalized about. Large sets usually require more
evi
more
The claim that your town is nil of remarkable people requires
De
people.
dence than the claim that, sax, your friends are remarkable
examples
three
vo
or
just
even
have,
you
pending on how manx friends
people;
but,
remarkable
are
friends
your
miht he enough to establish that
that
show
tc
required
are
examples
unless your town is. titus many more
your town is full of remarkable people.
Exercise Set 2.1: Finding relevant examples
Objective: To give you practice finding telestant appropriate examples to
sutiport a generalization.
40
Rule 7: Use more than one example
Rule 7: Use more than one example
Instructions: Find two to three relevant examples to support each
of the
fo
i
t
os
germ h, suom o i nax hac p do a I tti rmearch to nnd good
exarnules i.n some cases.
F
Som me oull ed to think caril
examp
z
ic y
j’ Ic a p
lie
ii
L Red
t i
m
axe
.Ru.11? named eEer an animal or an energy drink?
çh
eurtCet ft mild
ri
ci
lj 1
I
en a g m
ti
ofprofissional
jblse
‘?ots”
that
which
case
would
be
it
three,
in
the
are
on/v
these
.Dat
bg
Pc
ci
of iC th it
en
, s
e a’
the generalization is correct but only to find examples that provide evidence fD the.
eioen
0
yes
Tips for success: A generalization is a claim about some or all
things of a
certain type. yVhen thinking about generalizations, its helpful to ask
your
self two questions: First, what type of thing is the generalization
about?
Second, what does the generalization say about the things of that type?
Consider the fast-kind example above. Vhat pe of thing is it about?
It’s about fast—food products. ‘tVhat does it say about the members
of that
group? It says that they’re all unhealthy.
To give good examples in support of a generalization, you need to
be
that your examples are the right epe of thing. If you want to suppor
t
the generalization that fast foods are unhealthv you need to give
examples
of things that are both fast foods and unhealthn
Some generalizations are negative—not because they say someth
ing
mean about a rpe of thing, but because they say that few or no
things of
that ope are a certain way. Fur instance, consider the generalizatio
n “No
mammals can breathe underwater.” ‘What type of thing is this genera
liza
tion ahoutl yiammals, \Vhat does it say about mammals? It says that none
of them can breathe underwater. To give examples for this generalizatio
n,
you’ll need to find things that are mammals and are not able to breathe
underwater.
Not all generalizations ate expressed as clearly as the ones we’ve con
sidered so far. kiu will sometimes need to think carefully about
what a
generalization means before looking for examples.
;te1itrfiZ0
1
eliicgo u.LLs, tke FLorida machow, axd th PiiLad Lpiira
EagLes are professiovaL
spores tei&s tiat re ated aec ahoritats
1ie
To veri that those
Some birds ca.n swim,
Scene billionaires are college dropouts.
Everyone who walked on the moon in the twentieth century was
American.
I
4
C
a
Lots of professional spores teams are named after animals.
tye
1/
Politicians are liars.
Every planet in our solar system has multiple moons
6.
Sample
en
t”e
s
7
I
t
of the shows on television right now are not worth watching.
Developed, democratic countries no longer practice capital pun
ish rnent.
‘William Shakespeare wrote many tragedies
England has produced famous musicians
a/robriate. crc,rte a nen!alchecklrt”otrequrementsr
good examples. An example that
this generalization mi/st (h) he a pro/essicIzal
cports team and b, Ic iin d fIc
m e (or
h txa’nple aaimt 1 ow men
tal checklist” of
fs oath example a professional sports
opposed to,
se, a college sports
I) caD
named
an animal? Ifthe answer to both
examples ace
supports
a
ai
pa
10.
The worlds most populous countries are in Asia
en
requirements.
team
team)?
exampif
(as
aftm
0
Need more practice? Working with a friend or classmate, create a list of
generalizations. Then, go down your list and try to identi at least three
examples for each generalization
41
42
Rule 8: Use representative examples
Rule 8: Use representative examples
Use representative examp?es
C
CD
Co
43
Are made already mothers. By my count,
I was your mother much upon these years
That you are now a maid
(1.3.69-73)
Even a large number of examples max still misrepresent the set being
gen
eralized about. A large number of ancient Roman women, fhr
instance,
might tiblsh erx little about wo isen gener ills sinec anuent
Rom’in
women are not necessarily representative of other women, The
argument
needs to consider women from other early times and from other
parts of
the world as well.
ge uggr ts that Tuliet s m rrriage at fourteen is not cxceptional
lb p
in fict. fourteen seems to be a little on the old side.
Cl .1 look for the most accurate erosc-ceetlofl ou can find of the
to
opulatiofl being generalized about If you want to know what students
a w ut omc uhieet t our um ersi don’t ‘ust ask the people ou
know or generalize from what you hear in class. Unless you know quite a
are t ncopic and take quite a range of elussec wui perconal “cmplC ic
sot knell to mirror the whole student body Similarl it ou u ant to know
what people in other countries think about the United States, don’t just ask
touristsfor of course they are the ones who chose to come here. A careftul
00 ar a range of foreign media will give you a much more representative
1
k
picture.
Everyone in my neighborhood fhvors McGraw for president.
‘Therefore, i\IcGraw is sure to win.
‘
This argument is weak because single neighborhoods seldom represe
nt the
voting population as a whole. A well-to-do neighborhood may favor
a can
didate who is unpopular with everyone else. Student wards in
university
towns regularly are carried by candidares who do poorh elsewh
ere. Be
sides, we seldom have good evidence even about neighborhood
views. The
set of people eager to display their political preferences to the
world is
probably not a representative cross-section of the neighborhood
as a whole.
A good argument that “McGraw is sure to win” requires a representa
tive sample of the entire voting population. It is not easy to constru
ct such
a sample. Public opinion polls, for instance, construct their sample
s very
carefull They learned the hard wax. ‘The classic example is
a 1936 poll
conducted by the Literary Digest to predict the outcome of the preside
ntial
contest between Roosevelt and Landon. Names were taken,
as they are
now, from telephone listings, and also from automobile registr
ation lists.
The number of people balloted was certainly not too small: more
than two
million “ballots” were counted. ‘The poll predicted a wide
victory for
Landon. In the event, though, Roosevelt won easily. In retrospect
it is easy
to see what went wrong. In 1936, only a select portion of the popula
tion
owned telephones and ears. The sample was sharply biased toward
wealthy
and urban voters, more of whom supported Landon.
Polls have improved since then. Nonetheless, there are still worrie
s
about representativeness of their samples, and they still regular
ly forecast
elections wrong. For example, these days most of trw studen
ts don’t have
landlines at all—only cell phones with unlisted numbers.The pollste
rs aren’t
calling them. Phone polls max actualls be getting less represe
ntative again.
It is often an open question, then, just how representative a given
sam
ple may be. Anticipate this danger! Do some research. Juliet, for
example,
is just one woman, is she representative of women in her time
and place?
In Shakespeare’s pla Juliet’s mother says to her:
Think of marriage now; younger than you,
Here in Verona, ladies of esteem,
Exercise Set 2.2: Improving biased samples
Ohjecvive: To train you to recognize sources of sample bias in order to
avoid unrepresentative examples.
Instructions: Each of the following arguments uses an unrepresentative
set of examples. Suggest specific ways to improve each argument by chang
ing the way examples are chosen. Explain why those changes would make
the arguments examples more representative.
I
p
Tips for success: Man generalizations are about diverse groups. Con
sider, for instance, an opinion poll showing that Europeans disapprove of
caital punishment. Europeans are a diverse group of people. No single
individual is representative of all Europeans. To find representative ex
amples, then, we need to look for a group of people that is, on the whole,
reresentative of all Europeans. That is, we need to select examples so that
our group has the same characteristics as the group of all Europeans—the
same proportion of men to women, of college-educated people to noncollege-educated people, of native-born people to immigrants, of wealthy
people to poor people. etc. A group of examples is called a sample. The
implication of Rule 8, then, is that you want your sample to be representa
tive of the group that you are making a generalization about. A sample that
misrepresents the group is called a bias’d sample.
44
Rule 8: Use representative examples
Rue 8:
I low can we ensure that our sample 1 unbma—cd Pie simplest an’wer
is that c want our sample to be a ‘andum ‘ami/e. A random ample ot a
p,irticiltr a’oup —-sax. lurop .no.—--i- a sanmie ni hie
i even ‘aeniber f
1
the l hp 1 ia dO eidl chamici 01 he: tic
dud rLs
Collecting .1 I and ‘to amuple Is not ti e San C .t- Lh00il e\dmples
haphazardly or irhout a plan. Construcrinc .1 r indom stmple i actually
very ditheult. h rules of th’mnh can HeIR ou .n ‘ id te rn ‘—1 coflI non
‘t -t cs.’oul! wilt to think
out f-s riu uftl. n a. uderir advice
‘at the .,r.ur cot- m this u .erc6e.
I irst. Dc sure that ou are samphng front the ‘zt:,
‘it’ that you’re
making a eneralization about. lot instance. itv uire enerali,tn about all
oHge tua, ut’, \
.tte’h,.t r dent. from
,i wide range OIL olleges have .i prop “1101 ale probabilin ‘t’bei:ig included
in v, mr sample. Don’t oven) bc —tudent— from public arid private colleges,
Iare and small flees. md colleces in v.irious rerions 1
,f \ornh n,oniea,
etc. i>u also neul to 1w sUtC that all tiOj, of students
e an pr portion
ate chance of being jfl your sample—men and omen, -tin lent- who live in
dorms and students who commute to campus. premeds and the iter malors,
cighteen-vear-olds who came straight frot lnh -J
1 .ind fifty—year—olds
100
who are going back for a second degree, etc.
Furthermore, Rule 8 requires choosing your examples in ways that
ensure a truly proportionate sample. If you select students at random from
the college’s email directory you’ll miss students who don’t use their col
lege email address. If you contact students who are on campus during the
day, you’ll miss students who only take evening classes. When you design
your methods for choosing and contacting members of the group, think
carefully about whether your methods overlook, or under- or over-represent,
any part of the group. Try to ensure that each member of the group has an
equal chance of being in the sample.
If you can only sample a specific group of college students, it’s best to
change your generalization. For instance, if you can only manage to sample
students at your school, then instead of making a claim about all Narth
American college students, make a claim about college students at your
school.
Second, don’t let individual members of the group decide for them
selves whether they want to be in the sample. For instance, if you work for
a magazine and you want to know what your readers thought about last
week’s issue, track down a random sample of readers and ask them what
they thought. Don’t just put an ad in the next issue inviting readers to submit
their opinions. It’s true that all readers are invited to join the sample, but
only the ones with strong opinions will actually bother to write to you.
Qiite likely their views will not represent the views of your readership as a
-
.
.
,
.
.
‘hIP
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‘
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bOom s,imph a
‘‘
reunsCn itiv’. ‘txu
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‘or .ado .u 1
oR d
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o’
‘
1 .11
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-
Sample
Carolina turned up their nose at
In 202. students at the University of North
manufacniret of rubber gloves wasn’t cool
lobs at Newell Rubbermaid, The
enough job offers to go
enough to warrant their attention, and sidents had
landed jobs at Newell
who
sdents
elsewhere. In 2003, though. the few UNC
jobs! It seems that
had
were widely regarded as the iucki’ ones. At least they
of 2003 faced an un
swdents unlucky enough to find themselves in the Class
usually harsh job market.
hu in 7iav Striynant Jut Market
1
DdLenta1/t. Calleçn Graduntes Loser Si
New brkTimes.:l 14. 2003.
ro,JeCA bj i Lstdivg st.ce.ts frovv. oolteges aLL over the
s as eew.t oLd be
cLsio is svppos&
as weLt as iLdL vore stets fro NC. e oo
o
0
vltS oL
2003, bt the sa?Le
to be abct aLL AroS i the OSS
stets wo igt wat ajob with oe
wNC st tsad ataLL oL of
vLL stcets fro other ooLLeg a
OtkiLLar a faotrrg
forjobs
obs, as weLt as those who are’t
d stevts wo wat other
2003 a ohavoe to be i the
graati
t as woLa give eveoe who’s
5
savwpit.
about how to improve the
iPi; response does three things. First, it o,’rS sec1c sugfestzons
who want
include students/corn colleges all over the country. as sac!! a; students
cu1;es1Z7
it explains
Second
awa5.
right
oh;
ngjbr
looki
jobs outside the manufacturing sector or aren’t
want
might
who
students
UNC
why the sample in the argument is biased it consists ofonly
improve
would
change
proposed
a manufiictuning firm. Third, it explains how the
ala/s
a chance to he in the sample.
the arfument: ii would give everyone in the Class af200J
ivc been lookin at prices of homes for sale in mu neiLxhborhood,
chatting with local real estate agents and readin the occasional
i signs here point to a
article on home values in my local paper. 5
decline of about 10 percent in the value of real estate. I guess the
nations real estate problems really are as bad as they say!
jdapte,lftam: Daniel [eGInn, ‘Relir Denia/tNeWSWeCk, Aug 14. 2608,
45
I
46
Rule 8: Use representative examPleS
Rule 8: Use reraresentative examples
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Vomen have long been underrepreseneed and underfunded in
the sciences and mathematics. In recent years, though. women
have made significant and visible progress in academia. At Mfl’,
tern ale scientists’ salaries and lab spaces are now equal to those of
their male colleagues. Female scientists now head MIT the Uni
versity of Michigan, Princeton UniversitT and four campuses of
the University of California.
It’s not easy to make it big in the music business. According to
\iehen Sonndcan, t1erc wrre 97,751 tihums released m 2009
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fufi-body scans at
Most Americans don’t have a problem with
percent of travelers
security check points in airports. Fewer than 1
full-bo
dy scan. Most of
at the Las Vegas Airport opt out of the
there say that their
the- travelers interviewed about the scanners
safety is more important than their privacy
Ha,
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A/ptedji-om: Sara Jtinoy OOr Wlrnen in Sciences. S/ow Pro ress i, Academia,”
Nen-YrkTinms, A,nr 15, 2005. h-tsn:/ www.nxcinze..con-2005/04 15
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least, Sharks
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both for food and for
have been subjected to serious oveshing,
therapeutic powers.
the use of their cartilage, which aflegedly has
threate
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Beyond overfishing, the shark population is
baby
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oceanic whitetip
sharks. Great white sharks, hammerheads, and
opUIu
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sharks, to name just a few, have seen
Clearly, the word.
percent or more in the last few decadespeople don’t
“biodiversity” has become nothing but a oke, and
really care about endangered species at all.
IdaIediroiA471 NS- “Ewlaewl Sharks
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47
48
Rule 9: Background rates may be cruc
ial
9.
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Rule 9: Background rates may be crucial
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Exercise Set 2.3: Identifying relevant background rates
C
CD
Background rates may be crucia’
0
.
To persuade you that I am a first-rate archer,
it is not enough to show ou
a bull’s-eye I have made. You should ask (politely,
to be sure), “Yes, hut how
many times did von mini” Getting a hull’s-eve
in one shot tells quite a dif
ferent story than getting a hull’s—
eve in. sas a thousand, even thou
gh in both
cases I genuinely do have a
bull’s-eye to my name. Yitu need a little more data.
we coo practice identihng relevant hackoufld rates when
eralii.ai us and statistics.
l’.ac, ot the ihilon mInguments jumps to a conclusion on
dr.iwi,itit tatistit or 1 tsv vivid examples. In order to justi’
relevant hack:ion. viii would need to know more about
State what additional information you would need to know
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Rule 9: Background rates may be
cruc-ia!
to calL
out ieo
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telL
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51
Rule 9: Backgtoufl(-l e: may be cruca
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tell- ou: how
i._ it
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are I deC ant for dec’dmu 1.T,w ‘a el :hL’;,.,r
ricuh
tr
exampk 0 -t,fltiL’5 fl the .urue
cot ‘opp itt the’ ,trcnCc’nrs elnel
ucio
n.
In the Bermuda 1 rtantrh’ VhflCfl’
tCHt rate is
the rart. t oiJ p1 unt.s dN 1p u etc thic
dci n ud Li lnciL 1 ikew tc
it
omeot e ir r
rb it i p itt cul ir J J
r o
I u
dozen t i
morn tnodel% follow it. the relevant rate i-. C
he et. e:taue ‘ii pe
Cle on this
1
diet pLc —mdcls or not—vt ie IUSC
tvciiihr. In both cases, we also need
to
know another rate to evaluate the argumeit
: the rate at which planes dicappear in the rest of the worl
d ned thi ne ci t u of people on u i
diet
plan—and on none—who lose c e._l t
Once you know what rate oure looking
for, ask yourself what turthet
information you would need to calculate
that rate. In the Bermuda Tnangle example, you would need to know
how many planes pass through
that area. In the diet example, you wou
ld need to know (roughl how
manypeople are on this dietplan and how
manvof them have lost weight.
Often, this information jc the information
you would be looking foe it tou
responded to an argument for a generaliz
ation with the snide, but till ippropriate, comment, “Oh, yeah—out of
how many?”
Sometimes background rates matter in
a more subtle ‘aa Cornider
thislittlepuzzle:
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Tanya is a talented card player with the
most impassive poker
face you’ve ever seen. Which is she more
likely to he: a high
scbool teacher or a professional poker
pl ter
Tana sounds i great deal like a piotession
al poker plaser and since tnis
doesn’t appear to be an argument by gene
ralization,vou might not think
to consider background rates. If you do
consider background rates, though,
you’ll realize that there are a very large
number of high school teachers—
many of whom could be excellent poke
r players—and almost no professional poker players at all. Thus, regardles
s of Tanya’s penchant for poker
L
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52
Rule 9: BackgroUnd rates may be crucia’
Rule 9: Backaround rates may be crucal
3
have eatly reduced the
Digital downloads and rampant piracy
source of revenue album sales.The best selling
C°fd iaheh’ main
only 3.7 million copies. according
CD in 2007, for instance, sold
to Nielsen SoundScan.
Being highis paid goes hind in hind with ba ing out job Across
a range of professions, wvo out of three highly paid
professionals
a Iek love their job ‘Ibis figure goes up to 75 percent for highly
paid top executives in multinational corporations.
•
cc: gte: ale (larv,ca ‘Lxz’c
‘joke
oh,: Rice, Christian Science
Morn tor, Dec 4, 2006, h
1 ‘1’ Ic 0’
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11 ai,
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tI ,. Re,’. ‘z
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4.
Three our of four sisters in the Ramsav family have struggled with
anorexia. Their mother also had problems with anorexia
when she
er noi e’ i i nit run in tamilics
rn nu 7
helmet la in 2003, making
Pc nsa Ia ama changed its motorcycle
riders to decide for themselves whether to
it lanaI Cr most adult
catastrophic. B’ 2006, trauma
wear a hebnet. 1he results have been
head injuries soared
center admissions rates for motorcyclerekited
Clearly
vc”rcent, including an 1 1 percent increase in deaths.
cx
rpe,torcycllcts who choose not to wear helmets are foolishly
posiopr themselves to significant risks.
‘
I
tcv ‘o’ 4o” 1T non
tfl lSak’Ia
It8sn vh Fan v
New ‘Cork TirncsJo 1 t, 20(8,, hct::
cern ,:vtzme,com’2006/06,15/
,“aiC’i1 en htm/
5.
Jennitir’s financial troubles began when she lost her job. After
ordering supplies online to perform some hoodoo rituals, her
financial situation has turned around. Tammie and Angela have
similar stories: When they fell on hard times, they turned to
hoodoo rituals and found their financial problems disappearing.
Therefore, people in financial trouble who perform hoodoo rituals
are likely to recover from their financial problems.
isted/ko;;;: Citmeron McWbirte,; lVi’eda Job! Losing YsierHozise? Who Says
Iloodoo (Jan! Hc,’pO Wall Street Journal, Dec28, 2010, htip:nlin’wsJcom/
artie/e/%B10001424052 743703989004575653102537901954km!
6.
The New York Yankees have won the World Series twentv”seven
times. The opposing team in this year’s American League cham’
pionship has never even been to the World Series. The opposing
team should he intimidated by how much better the Yankees’ track
record is with respect to the \Vorld Series.
Ada’tedj(8m: Dave van Dyck. “Rangers Are No Match jbr Yankees When
It
(
f-I
r
I
‘n,,de i inc 0 14 20 5
is
,
/
/atimes.,’m/2010/oe/’i,tsJ4s—4’-m/a---20j0/0j5
7.
New \ork’s “Take 5” lotto game sells one hundred thousand win’
ning tickets every single day’. Therefore, buying a “Take 5” ticket
gives you a good shot at winning too.
Adeiolcdt Ion: “MOTel/c Commercial TakeS, ‘Cit lithe, Fe!’ 2, 2008,
htc n//ovwwaooeetzehe.co m/watch?vyJMhRfI2YcPo
Sheen ,Uolorcye/ictS Mel
AdaptedgSom: Editorial, “olin Dead: Moe Evidence http,.//wwW
postgazette
2008,
19,
Jun
[fr/mets, “Pittsburgh Post-Gazette,
13
\rroao shooting spree in Tyler,Texas, left two people dead
Dc
were Arroyo’s son
and wounded four others. Among the wounded
eral police officers Among the dead were Arrovo’s ex-wife
and se 5
prevented Arroyo’s
and a bystander, Mark \Vilson, whose heroism
who owns
rampage from becoming an even bigger tragedy. Wilson,
apartm
ent. He
a handn, heard Arroyo’s shots from his nearby
about to kill
ran outsIGe and started shooting at Arrovo, who was
While the
instead.
Wilson
another victim. Arroyo turned to face
enough
bought
ensuing un battle left Wilson fatally wounded, it
to
managed
ame for more police to arrive. Those police officers
law-abiding
take Arroyo down. The lesson here is that if more
averted.
he
citizens carried gains, more deaths could
FOX cc’e.
Adapted jkonv,Johei Lott,Jn. ‘Good Samarila’i Con LIe,
http,.//twL,W
fOXnee050m
/1t0C1N2933
1492500Othtm1
MarS, 2005,
could he stereo”
Need more pracce? Make a list often stereoTcS, ihes0
of events
rvpes about rt’pes of people (e.g., scientists or musicians), rtpes
e one or
an iii games ohtial 1cction roa ii sacdding etc Cc
Then ask
two examples from real life or fiction that support the stereotype.
determine
to
know
to
need
vvursclf what background rate(s) von would
need to
bother the stereo’pe is true and what information von would
calculate the relevant bacround rate(s).
53
54
a criical eye
II
C
Rule 10: StatistiCs need a critical eye
S I ee J a critical eye
.
.
55
nun’hen’ that are east 1 1 mnulJte- I 0. ‘r kIic)
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After an era when some athletic powerho
use universities were
accused of exploiting student athletes,
leaving them to flunk
out once their eligibility expired, colle
ge athletes are now
graduating at higher rates. Many scho
ols are now graduating
more than 50 percent of their athletes.
cli-’ Prctt
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ujt nI-re than c0 :ler.t’n
of their
r-.r-- :at nan .11 nut-— -n tIn’ t1iY
L’HI.i nell C\L lode the
“i- -.t.tv-.’ huoI that rea!]v concerne
d people in the ra place.
He .rv.mcor dues otter utHd’LItulc r:tc
- Bit it ‘-v-mid he usethl
to
oi ‘I.. >1 ‘a
“‘note than 0 perCent’
r,a1uatuit tatc cumpal I.’S with the
a”ad lit cn rate tot all tudents -at the sante
10 .titutiuns. Ii it is sinilicanth
II
may still he getting
the sh
it
1
0-i impot tat tl, this
atunment otters no reason to believe that
ol—
ft c’ •cH :i Lraduntlo
n rates ate actuaflv imjam-’;-:’in
because no nm—
j,
oat
ii. am prevIous rate
is ccrlered! flle eunchision claim
s that the
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If kids keep watching more TV at current rates, by 2025 they’ll
have no time left to sleep
da Extrapola
Riuht. and by 2040 they’ll be watching thirty-six hours a
mathetflaticY hut after a certain
tiofl in such cases is perfectly possible
poInt it tells you nothing.
-
.
‘--‘
Ni biLlet 1 un
i nc.•I Immete evidence 1111 cther
S t( ((I. Ruk’
for
example, tells us that knowing bac
kground rates may be crucial. Corre
spondingiv, when an argument offer
s rates or percentages, the relevant
background information usually mu
st include the number of examples. Car
thefts on campus may have doubled,
but if this means that two cars were
stolen rather than one, there’s not
much to worry about.
Another statistical pitfall is overprec
ision:
uld pi)s5iN a\
much n tore to he said about statistics and probability than we 0
dt’tst,id these
0
orde
to
r
k. Ybu might consider taking course in statistics in
,iu H 0
per
son should take
aspires to 1w an educated
inure deeph’. Ve think everyone who
-ni’
the esources section on thi
t one such course! n the meantimt’, take a look at
hooks and iii n rust urceS about statistlI. s
L s( rnpafliofl Web site for links to helpful
following
Perusing those resources might men help von complete the
‘s.c
.
ott’r
“
this campus wastes 412,067 pape
r and plastic
its time to switch to reusable cups
!
Every year
cups.
No doubt the amount of campus
waste is huge. But no one really
the precise number of cups was
ted—and
Exercise
knows
simPe org’JEflS knot use numbers
Objective: To develop a critical eye for arguments using simple statistics.
Instrucfiofls Each of the following arguments uses numbers in a mis
leading wa Explain why each argument’s use of numbers does not ade
cuately support the argument’s conclusions
Many misleading uses of statistics can he detected with
statistics saying? Are these
three simple questions: \Vhat exactv are these
tatistics believable? And: Do these statistics really show what the argumett
when
claims they show? Be sure to ask yourself each of these questions
stati
sticsuse
evaluating the following argumeflt5r any arguments that
Tips for
it’s extremely unlikely to be ex
actly the same every year. Here the
appearance of exactness makes the
evi
dence seem more authoritative than
it really is,
Set 2.4: voluaflg
success:
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A rLcent sure lix Bi til i -ni
und thu hetLroscual
men have an axerae of i., t’ u 1’ i’i’rs
ru” die u)urse of
lives. Ihe same study u fls.,
tel ‘se\ua1 women aver
age
6. cxua1 partners. An 1
A
e
ri’
n nnrvuv, recently reported by
the
U.S. govermnent, 1
foum . m’d,’r di.’repanuv: heter
osexual men
nriged seen
I
1 }icterose\ulI iom
r
1 i t
en axer
aged tour 1en mu be a
a tia in xsomen
Adaptt d fro n ( ni i
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Beef is not high in cholesterol. Three ounc
es of cooked lean beef
contain 73 milligrams of cholesterol. By
comparison, the same
amount of roast chicken contains 76 mg,
fried chicken, 74 mg,
pork, 77 mg; shrimp, 130 mg; cheddar chee
se, 90 mg.
President George W. Bush relaxed federal
rules about how much
arsenic was allowed in drinking water. ‘Wh
ereas the old rules pre
viously required drinking water to have
no more than ten parts
per biffion of arsenic, Bush’s revised rules
would allow up to thirty
parts per billion for water systems that serve
communities of up
to ten thousand residents. That exposed
fifty million Americans
to higher levels of arsenic. The changes
in those rules amounted to
an attack on public health.
Adaptedfrom:Juliel Eiiterin, “EPA May
Weaken Rule on
Witer Quality,”
Washington Post, Apr 1, 2006, http.’//ww
w.washingtonpost.com/wp-
’dyn/
629.hfml
contevt/article/2006/03/31/4R200603
3101
6.
1’
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.
..
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12/,,ta. 5
a/
Adaptedfrorn: “?he Truth.corn—Rat Poison
, “You Tube, Oct14, 2007,
htfp://www.youtethe. com
v=v
4
/w
yxx
atcub
hi 2no 1’
5.
.1
i
Our psychics are supernaturally accurate.
Our Psychic Managers
thoroughly test every psychic who applies
to work for us, screening
1
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,
Cigarettes contain 101 different kinds of pois
on. That’s one hundred more poisons than rat poison.’Therefore,
smoking cigarettes
is even more foolish than eating rat poison.
i\U
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fl\ fl
a
un
Adaptedfrorn: “12 Myths about Reef,”a/l
,’er distributed at the North G,rolina
State Fair on behalt’oftheNationa/Ga
tt1emaniAssociatioi, nd.
4.
iOfldh1fl. and c inp.1
piole
1’
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3.
59
Ruie 10’ Sinisic’ rno n c,ri .l c
Rule 10: Statistics need a cr9cal
evc’
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ill
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III
d tu hilIlix i tiiil1
som
e
1
rrnl’4 that the X-ray s used in
,vcr cone
C r
e
pu
the
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rC
t
rtixc
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ean
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.frmnon prOduled h the
sUCfltIt
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ibou
t
orr’
w
tithing to
I
j’iflUil delivered o ta
iii’ actual d(ThC
1-ui orio-inallV estimated. flit. C1
.vii flhile’
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lCv’”1’ through a full boh
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III 14
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Erpert.
4ir,ourt BAt 5canners Could Give You Caneet’ 0rvs
on
Daily Mail, Jun 30,2010,
banned most guns. They
In 1996, the Australian government
ins to the goverflrnent
Greed in owners to surrender 640,381
homicides increased
Guess achat happened? In the following year,
were up 8.6 percent
3.2 percent across the country; assaults
amaziflgi gin ho
atmed robberies rose 43.2 percent; and most
soare
d 171 percent!
micides in the Australian state of Victoria
worse since the gov
There’s no doubt that crime has gotten much
ernnaent banned guns.
“WoridNet Daily,
Adap
F. DougbeItY ‘Crime Up Do-un Under,
tedfrom:J011
Mct 3 2000
countries is wreaking havoc
IC. The outsourcing of lobs to developing
middl
5
5
eC families in the developed world.
on the livelihoods of 1
60
Rule I i: Consider counterexamples
Forrester Research recently estimated
that 5136 billion in
link are
apic, are tt t iod a well. but ebetahh’ and
noth
ma 1
and
:tdul
rt
leeL
dt and
i( duat.
unh
alth
.
a .an ut that nut a!! 1at tood arc
tti.tt Von ltit
refl
urd
l1i
to
a
uteu
nre
rc\u
1lP
thn
r ,cncih7ltb0n I r the jut at utuent
0
re° un need to adjust
]fl’t it
r.inc. von uiaht CtiIne the
i
it cxli
would be transferred from the United
States to foreign cow
between 2006 and 2015.This includes
550 of the 700 service-p
categories in the United States.
nether
I
I
ei
r
j
1
,.p
a eir .e
t
)i
I
fik
lu,
t
1
t
}
t
tpp in
I
t
J
Iii
IiIilI
use
tinI
I
I t
i/ilK
Ill
hid
il
I
,‘
-
Ioi
ct
t(
1k
Pie
H
HI ‘11’
..
I
1
°i
l
hIIL fl0H 1
tOt ipt \oC t
II
h I
tC
o
nd
0 it t ut to )Ll t i t
ul
eU
tttb
lts’
0dt
h1t
llt’ Itl b
uh i isr ood
CO ti
lhi
’
I
ot
w n
r
icr. 1
turdu’nt’. iio tt’fld t e
alk
the
j.
that
hat ou really vt1t
ma) be 1
Hi5.
:1
tend
s to
tandardiiI inuredient
nking and cheap. 5
:k C’ 1
t
tli is not invariable. a the e\dtiu
it
1w
inteiestil
uoesu). ibis i. a rn .e subtle and
.iid\V1d 5
tO moVC
ooifl
more
think
ing
in.d 01W, and i\ e your
.
1
otiu_
a
arc
oi
c(fllnterlmPh vi hen
-I it
1
o,,el
tI,
nsio
fl5
vihe
tliur
‘vn. \k
cli ,is
aid
iibde
he re ied and limited. or rethought in tTh)tC
‘
---c- to
other- rumeflt5 and t
fls. Ihe saute rules ipph b ti’ ‘0
jOeL t
owl
ha’ e a hatice to C- rrcc io r
h Llitre’we js that
t._iu:rself.
so
l
l\c C
‘our
,
J
\ r
u arces in term r ti’e
ttrnatnel. each person could te jew
.111K
ratist, s.
c an
a
II
‘
L
Adapted from: Lou Dobbs, War on the Mid
dle Class (?‘fw
Penguin, 200o),
\eed iimrc ,,ractice (
c
61
Rule 11: Consider countereX0mPl
-
-
.
li
-
.
i t e, I iu\ spapur. or in aaz
i flu.
-
,
—
ca ininkinn act
.
y. rinding mis’eading statistics
out—of-c lass icm r that iv
applying Rule 10, see the “Findinc
ituslcadin statistic “dsSiIltCtit c(()
w I art
Jhi activity has an optional
vii
-
.
H
.
.
u\tuHSiOH.
..
-
‘0
C
?5
—J
-
Consider counterexamples
ExerCise Set 2.5:
Counterexamples are
examples that contradict your generaliz
ation. No
fun—maybe, But counterexamples
actually can he a generalizer’s best
friends, if you use them early
and use them well. Look for them on purpose
and systematically, It is the best way to sharp
en your own generalizations
and to probe more deeply into your them
e.
Consider this argument once again:
French fries are unhealthy (high in
fat).
Milkshakes are unhealthy (high in fat
and sugar).
l)eep-fried chicken and cheeseburgers
are unhealthy (high in
fat).
Therefore, all
fast
foods are unhealthy.
‘Ihis argument offers multiple and
apparently representa
tive examples.
However, as soon as you start thinking
about counterexamples instead of just
more examples, you will find that the
argumen
t overgeneralizes. Subway
Finding Counterexamptes
counterexamPles to generali
Objectivet To give you practice identi’ing
zatlOflS.
each of the generalizations
Ins ruch0flS Try to find a counterexamPle to
below, if there are no counterexamPles, say so.
is an exanzple that
Tips for success: Remember that a countereXamP
generalization “All birds can
ca against a generalization. Consider the
members of that group
fl “It’s a generalization about birds. it says that all
gene
ralization would be a
that
(i.e., birds) can fly. A counterexamPle to
eoun
terexamPles to the generalizatiom
bird that cannot fly. Penguins -are
dodo birds.
Sc are ostriches, and so unforiflatY for them) were
coun
terex
ample to a par
in order to decide whether something is a
same questions you
ticular generalizatiofl you’ll need to think about the
type of thing is the
asked yourself in Exercise Sets 2.1 and 2.2: What
62
63
Ru!e ii: Consider counferexamples
7anon bout Vhat do the n ‘ral’,at
o
b ut t i
g
ti i
Lou c e ampi niur be the rhtht flpC it
t iinr Tt our
to n
bout h d our ountere\a iple mu’a h bird.
1urtherrn
our ount \l I m
0
d h
n r, 11 .i n If ehC gene
an a tI at b’ rd Cal v,
r ou t r ar pie I St b b tha i
ibl to P
,O
S
n phd opl r’ and i athemi t1cI.in uw thC
to t ter spcufiLalh t an exa; lpli
that dproxe
‘en rahznon th tis,ag rerlz to hr
ehinr,oh utah
rs of a r a
x “l birds a
dv’; \
h
th n
a pl in a le t chni xl eSs a
epi n to
nerali Itien
non us r a eneraliz ‘hon In tb ne k
r L;le ot o tat
a ntor tc ot o as and Ahska a e Cou
nte exa
ti he ,,eireiahza—
ton tb t mo r r infor s s r
L h ropic X hil hi e ruse focu
ses
exclm s 1 on i set a’ gen ri ti i
11 b i so
o
ti
p
a
c
0
tim te antpi i
omd tar lami exreu m
,
flCIdl
FiollyWOod
41
hi
movie stars are native English speakers.
hi
college textbooks are deathly boring.
hi
hE
hE
hi
Prize in chemistry
o women have won the Nobel
,
to the United Nationsf.verY country in the world helong
‘as
.
American
Sanish is the officid language of all South
,
Sample
Margaret
tlwtekee
vk
i-a ot a
riwe
worl4 Leao ayec sh
ter of esrrat
I/se gencrahzat:on here is about majhr u-erie/lea
10.
F5.yit
countries.
a
I
I
have hair.
men,
imau.
I
I
I
if
m d of \ getabi
.
-
All major world leaders have been
MI
orldw;de.
1Clt ng 5
ye frovme i33 to 1550, waa a
eajor
ders. It says that all of them have been men
.
Thus, a counterexampie must he a major worl
d leader who is not (or was nod a man, Ther
e
ate pl ii
d’ hL odes ii? it tat c trurcL His o’ ito//f
g-arts n lude Qaeen Elizabeth]
(England), Catherine the Great (Russia),
the Dowager Empress Cixi (Ghinaf and
some
what more recently, Indira Gandhi (India)
and Go/ak IWeir iisnse/,?, Alerc contemporary
ftg-ures include Angela Merke! (Gerumny).
Julia Gi/lard (Australia), and Dilma Rou
sseff
IRraziL), amoirg others.
As usua4 there ma he some into pre/ive
questions about the qene
ralizatton. Cleopatra
was the last pharaoh ofancient hgyr
She
t.
governed an important country and play
ed an
important role in the politics of the ancie
nt Mediterranean world Does that mak
e her a
“inaior world leader 1 The Americet a secre
tary ofstate plays an important roE in worl
d iou—
ties Does that make knmle secretaries
ofstate, like Madeleine Alhright. (!ondoieezza
Rice,
and Hihiary Clrnton ‘thajor wored leaders
EDo mator world leaders even have to he
in
poll—
tics I What about fi’maie leaders of tnyie mult
r
inational organizations, such as laura
P’iooyi,
(E0 ofPepsiCo orHelene Gayle, CEO
ofthe international aid organization 5
CARE
outside the
f,verxhing in the room you’re in right now was made
Unite States.
counterevluhPbes to the generak
Need more practice? See if you can find
even more praCtIce. work with a
izations in Exercise Sets 2.1 and 2.2 For
generaliZati0m and then look for
friend or classmate to create a list of
eounterexiPks to each one.
Ii
—EREX
ER
C
gefleral1z0t0flS
Exercise Set 2.6: Evaluating arguments far
evaluate .arkrUnsents
Ohecdve To give you practice using Rules 7li to
(or generalizations.
Instructi0fl
the
rules
follows
Evaluate how well each of the following argunsetits
from this chapter.
64
Chapter II Exercises
65
1 yQrC.SOS
Tips for success To evalua
te in arguint. to dr.t.idt how stronç
argument is VVhen ‘eu C
k’i’ t
an i_i
11 oncone tnc
support a generalizinon hi .i
I
it LII ho I’lL
lows Rules 7—11. The hctwr
11 it
‘1w t ‘‘nçer rhe argument
sure that you’ve done a thn
is. To he
rmh 1’i in ‘t.aIuatnt an
argument. it’s best
to take a systematiL iporo
aI C I
P is
— 11
c b onL asking
yourself how well the argurr’s
‘1
0
‘There are some things to keu
p nin- when appivm
these rules.
In general, the more exam;
’les an ra’im’nt cvc
s, the better it does ‘
following Rule 7 Although
1
t
Ruis
i’
argut nt should
“use more than one examp
le.” twit c\i’:i PiSt wlO aren
’t
mu
ch better than
one The real question is
wheti
tns i
t
n i,n is no it-h c
implus
to
101 tionWbuntn
irumentjs
1
s
ii
t
ampie needs to be to cou
nt
ft
te to case But iou
ons about really largu
it Stare.. based
on surprisii u thou” md
people, pro-
ri
should know that its possib
it to i por
groups, like the entire pop
u.1tioo
th
ingli small samples—som
etimes ot
vided that the samples are
trul r i
it it’s
In deciding howwell an rim
bus Rule 8, keep in mind
you learned from Exercise
wh it
Set 2:’. .\sk ourseif hew
many of the examples
are re resentative. If mo
st or all ot them are repres
entative, the argument
does a good job following
Rule c•
To decide whether an argum
ent follows Rule 9, ask you
rself whether
you need to know any backgr
ound rates, Often backgr
ound rates are expressed in terms of percen
tages Suppoce someone tel
ls you that nineteen
Toyota Priuses have crashe
d because of defective acc
elerators. In order to
conclude that Priuses are not
ably unsafe, you’d need to
know what percentage of Priuses have crashe
d because of defective accele
rators. Does the amgument provide that percen
tage—or at least the inform
ation you’d need to
calculate that percentage?
Or can the arguer reason
abl
y assume that you
know the background rat
es (in this case, actually ver
y
low
)? If not, the argument does a poor job fol
lowing Rule 9.
Deciding whether an arg
ument follows Rule 10 is
more difficult because there are so many
ways that statistics can be
abused. When you encounter statistics in an arg
ument, think carifully abo
ut what the statistics
mean where they came fro
m, and whether they really
support the generalization that they’re me
ant to support.
When it comes to Rule
11, ask yourself first ivhether
the conclusion is
a universal generalization—
that is, a generalization
that says something
-
-
0
-
it
•1
Oil
•‘-‘-°
t.-\sC1t ‘I’
2
l
‘
‘
z
,i.
—‘-:‘-‘
L\
.o
I
you need to take a sample
. K;;
is ‘enough examples is tot
g1
j
S
•‘-‘
1’
-
—
,
,,rtanil, C )1 i’
ii-t)i,i
)fl, iih
-
,,
a
it
i
l
-L-
‘
S
is
W’i
,
ii
-“
prusefit
_Iil it I
unit
r—
I
nt.raH’
- vheri iii
.-Hnk
i-
.
0
I,
NU
i
am
P’
hows m ostlv feature senSatiofl
1
r
th ‘atuhmg News 5
er;thing else
Ju-t tDO’ 5
Jjaed crime stOrle an d ubhc figures’ peuuadill0’
“rn chow_a about as far from reality as yOU La n g a—or a shov
1t’
1
e
L
‘
culeur
itle I roblern5in olcr—tue —to p mateflaliSh1 and
Ltk rL
otInng o’
-
tele51
-
--
t
rr
Eth Deck The j ia
4.ptsatrom Deanna W La
hit
01
71e
5 O7’i/
Zoo
th
2010
Thc Brown
e
i
t
3
8
0
a
66
,
S
eaocined
few
S°ter
oov
ÂLtkOt,(g’1 those e)(”P
er Lot o-f wiat’S oVT it
ç w.ovies,
(gi
ae :7-) WItuit about rawas, Si 0
,
ze abot eerJt1i.’S OV’ ‘‘
oesss’t
-tui’S the
et
t4reireaoer
reLia’5°
ilL
0 tWe argut.W.et is?roatL
with vie
with
oa
u
it
vO
50
rei
TY
lLit
4
tpercetage of TV
eVote to ws a
W
5
o
il
bit
t
t
(u,i<i.e 10),
i’-ie arg Vi,Lf,14’t e,st w.tS ise avsthe
wt
h
‘proV
big
aleW
ges
t
it OCSi4’t itse ilv
,at’L pro
vo’Je5,
we
o 1
tere
orea 0
’
-P (Rit L e
oitter—
os’‘bCe 0
w kt-isg othtr WS -e at
yi4LWig are efuite4 wor
2
watui, for SV
suows
sow.e eop-e thnt
argw2t
t
.
-
‘
I
.
th ecpot’se addreiuet ttzc/i
iustifiti thoce clam
anti then
,
low
the rule
‘‘
It states how
piaiiilflg
hose
he
SS
CII t.
fZ1ows
argUtflefltJ
ait-Urnt
dosi
0?
1
pot
66
Chapter II Exercises
Chapler II Exercises
dangerous. Theyre
People who talk about wanting revolution are
our own peril. We
or just playing around. Ve ignore them at
0
1930s, and look
didn’t take them seriously in Germany in the
in Russia in 1917,
what happened. We didn’t take them seriouSlY
Cub
in
a with Castro. But
r in Venezuela with Hugo Chavez, or
paid a price for ignoring them.
they were serious—and the rld
A good cap/a nczt/on of‘how a particular
argument follows a given rule
should mention the
deta i/c of that specific argument. Fr
instance, saying that some movies
and dramas are
‘worth watching is better than lust
saving that the author ignores some
coun
terexamples.
Czving 1
pecfc examples ofworthwhile mov
ies or dramas would be even bettee
1
.
1
a,tc
4
dom: Glenn Beck,
•
\‘
ill o) ii
.uch
tifliC tO
CL\C1i n1inUte. ü
I
\L
I
-t i te
-
‘.
.
Hi
the vrIg h
ncr l),Illu1
th. I
.e
•
Ii
•.
tt. \
t’
better
A” •/
1-
-
t.
1;-
•.
j;, I)i’
.1 Ic’’:’,. t” 1c
2, ‘(10 /
‘1’;
•\
;‘2’, 0 2-/o ‘01.
-
-,-
;f’
1’ i:
‘
t—o’i /n”_’f,’-
.
(,,
r:’
‘
-‘,
‘
“
11.
AdaptedIr01mf0h R. Lottie. “Why People Fear
Jan 3, 2004,
‘:
empire Li ts e’v Ic n’g. lu’ look at
the empires that collapsed
in the re entieth centun.. The Sovt
et Union v a gOifl to last tor—
ever, but it col1aped •ifter c’eent
years. I litler’s and \ Iuo1inR
regimes were nppowd to laq fur
thuu..atidc üt Ve,ii’. “it ‘n know
ij” :0,1
ncm. i-von rho Briti .h I’.mpite
cam to an cud!
,.
I
I.
‘,‘,;
C) 1/]
ii
•“OO
-,,
10u
“N’,
,‘/‘
0
4,
‘/1
•i
‘ia/cr
Pi
.r’,
-
2”
Oo,t
tint
When public health experts try to help
Americans become health
ier, Americans just get fatter. When
the government encouraged
Americans to quit smoking, ex-smo
kers gained an estimated fif
teen pounds on average. Take another
example: When the public
health experts said to switch to a low
-fat diet, Americans switched.
But they replaced their high-fat food
s with sugary drinks and lowfat snacks devoured
by the fistful. ‘What happened? Americ
ans got
so much fatter that the
experts rescinded their low-fat advi
ce.
zldaptea’fronr-JoIj,z Tiernev, “Witen
F Corn-s to Sa/ No Rzyhts 5r Wongs.
1”
New jrk Times, Feb 22,2010, hftp:
//www.ny/irnes.corn/2010/02/23/
sczence’2itzer html
Heraldiribu0
4daptedJr0 Editorial, ‘\clear Reaction,” Sarasota
Feb 22, 2010
8.
4’
C
.5’
4’
.1
to build a new
A power company in the state of Georgia is trying
efficient nu
more
nuclear power plant. They plan to use a safer,
AP100 China
0
clear reactor design from Westinghouse, c-ailed the
last year,
started building a power plant with an AP1000 reactor
they’re
far,
si’r
So
ock
eted
.
and the construction costs there have
The
refore,
expe
cted.
already more than three times higher than
to
lead
AP0
10 reactors will usually
building power plants with 0
cost overruns.
:‘
,•,._i•_.,f, / 1”
FOX Ne ws,Jui 9, 2010
coverage of defen
lost major news outlets do not provide much
million defensive gun uses
hve gun uses.lhere are more than o
2001, the three major tele
iu the United States each year. But in
sing
le story about someone
news nevorks did not run a
7day didt
who used a gun to stop a crime. The newspaper USA
New York
print a single story on defensive gun use either, The
use—but it was
Times did publish one article on defensive gun
50,7
com
45 words that
bined
only 163 words long, compared to a
near on crimes committed with guns.
..
academ :c achieven ent ha’i U alith
rnja
I ichtb k_lCrs in C1!WSsCe •ire better
at reading than Cal—
,r.
in A
eghth-graeier e ire higher
1’ N ti. c:hrL-giai1er
in ( alifornia do.
uu
h
uv one
OUt
‘.‘‘‘/
67
Themistocles was a virtuous man, and though he taught his son
Likewise,
many things, he could not teach his son to be virtuous.
though
even
not,
was
son
Aristides was a virtuous man, but his
was a
too,
Peric
les,
Aristides had his son trained in many things.
ano
ther
virtuous man whose son was not virtuous. Thucydide5
education,
virtuous man, had uvo sons, to whom he gave a good
‘5
68
Chapter U Exercises
Chapter Ii Exercises
i,;
i
Exercise Set 2.7: Aquflg
cuJ in ‘n.::il
oH
0 dli
dOt tot
5
Ii Lt
Ud
II
i
UI
1
1
l
Vii tik U
1
s.
I
ii
V \ 10 “rk 10
11jL.
l\
/
I
1n flOOl
foi
1
I
S
ii
1
‘d
ittI
1
-S.
II
I
II
i-I
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sitO
i
IlL
!isHUI
dli
s’
,ifl
,flii Iii
urLeU
I
JV,r
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h’
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I
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i
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s
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11
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.
cuu
“uhUi_’d
oid .U1)
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1
iiJi
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Will
mu Rte.
:t-,;u_.
I ‘t-
..tl.fl t’,dl 110; I..i
11
ltL
1
str)iL
i-
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S
W
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ii
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Chapter 1 ExerCiSes
Chapter II Exercises
aereroui2anb0
71
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exc
eption
have ’
Sample
Illegal drugs are safer than alcohol.
-tiis geeraLzato. is faLse.
it’s arg.cabLe that so.e crLLgs, soh as
cnM( evtah.
LLogei.s, arc safrrtha aLcohoL.. w.as
t iLLegal rugs are kl.wre
avtgeroirs thai&. alc.ohol. C.oeaiv’..e, rac3
, v.etk
etn’the.c, ouui., av’4 heroi arc
paLarL jcro b cac.sc thcij
are all ghL.j aLotive, thej co serio
ca.age
to the bocAij av4 ts ea.s to ove4osc
ok%tk1ew. Ec.stasj ca.’ oase brcna.
a4
rre eostasj c.a. be Lethal. While alcoh
ol is a (iotive
oav daage joL.r boc or
P.iLL
it is v..ot as a ictiie or
i.agh.g as these rLgs. ‘flirts, Ia’. geve
ral, illegal
th-rtgs are ot sa’fer than. alcohoL
WhiLe
than dog owners.
C tt owner5 are more neurotic
then support your
‘a
generalizati0n and
es 9 and 10, write your own
with an arurneflt that follows Rules 7—11.
‘C”
ult..1!/.ttl ,‘n
•a’1’e. \d’.
,r
Hci - ,r tm 0’. al’ tele’”’°
n’. d’C tiuL or ane ..ni the’; tn
thi
Ca’ P
,oi
,
-
-•
te’
t.:
“
>,,
‘
‘4,
This reiponse does two things. First, it state
s whether the generalization is truc orJal
se.
Then, it gives an argument to support that
claim, The argument does a reasonably goodj
ob
following each of the rules from this chap
ter.’ It gives many examples “RuIe 7,, whic
h
are
rcpresentative ofthe most widely used illeg
al drugs (Rule 8,,). Wjile it doesn’t say how
many
kinds ofillegal drugs there are (Rule 9,), we
can probably rely on the reader to
know roughly
how many kinds ofdrugs are left ouL The
argument does not give any statistics to supp
ort
its claim, which means that it doesn’t give
any misleading statistics (‘Rule 10,), altho
ugh
well—chosen statistics could have strengthe
ned the argument. The argument does men
tion
some specific counterexamples (Rule 11,, but
only to point out that there are only afiw
of
them.
*1
4,
‘I
a/
r
4,
1.
Most U.S. presidents were born in Ohio
or Virginia.
2.
The Japanese make the best cars.
3.
Classical music is boring.
4.
Your classes this term are interesting.
5.
Playing professional football is dangerou
s.
6.
Anything that can go wrong, will. (Mu
rphy’s Law)