Earth and Planetary Science Letters 296 (2010) 311–318 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Earth and Planetary Science Letters j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / e p s l Elasto-plastic modeling of volcano ground deformation Gilda Currenti, Alessandro Bonaccorso, Ciro Del Negro ⁎, Danila Scandura, Enzo Boschi Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Italy a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 12 October 2009 Received in revised form 6 May 2010 Accepted 12 May 2010 Available online 16 june 2010 Editor: L. Stixrude Keywords: ground deformation elasto-plastic rheology finite element method Etna volcano a b s t r a c t Elasto-plastic models for pressure sources in heterogeneous domain were constructed to describe, assess, and interpret observed deformation in volcanic regions. We used the Finite Element Method (FEM) to simulate the deformation in a 3D domain partitioned to account for the volcano topography and the heterogeneous material properties distribution. Firstly, we evaluated the extent of a heated zone surrounding the magmatic source calculating the temperature distribution by a thermo-mechanical numerical model. Secondly, we included around the pressurized magma source an elasto-plastic zone, whose dimension is related to the temperature distribution. This elasto-plastic model gave rise to deformation comparable with that obtained from elastic and viscoelastic models, but requiring a geologically satisfactory pressure. We successfully applied the method to review the ground deformation accompanying the 1993–1997 inflation period on Mt Etna. The model considerably reduces the pressure of a magma chamber to a few tens of MPa to produce the observed surface deformation. Results suggest that the approach presented here can lead to more accurate interpretations and inferences in future modeling-based assessments of volcano deformation. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction When modeling deformation in volcanic regions, the assumption of elastic rheology can be an over simplification. The elastic approximation is generally appropriate for small deformations of crustal materials with temperatures below the brittle–ductile transition, which is between 600 K and 1000 K, depending principally on composition and strain rate. Although elastic behavior well describes the upper 15 km of the Earth's crust (Ranalli, 1995; Turcotte and Schubert, 2002), in active volcanic areas the variation in brittle– ductile transition may be related to the perturbation in geothermal gradient due to the presence of intrusive bodies or varying saturation state of fluid-filled fractured rock matrix (Mandal et al., 2007). Materials surrounding long-lived magmatic sources are heated significantly above the brittle–ductile transition and rocks no longer behave in a purely elastic manner, but permanently deform because of the plastic deformation (Fung, 1965; Ranalli, 1995). Therefore, the thermal state makes the elastic approximation inappropriate and can greatly influence the surface deformation field. Although mechanical deformation models based on the assumption of elastic rheology have been successfully and widely applied to interpret geodetic data acquired on several volcanoes (e.g. Walsh and Decker, 1971; Yang et al., 1992; Okada and Yamamoto, 1991; Bonaccorso and Davis, 1999; Currenti et al., 2008a), in many cases elastic models seem unable to reproduce the observed deformation unless unrealistic overpressures ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (C. Del Negro). 0012-821X/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2010.05.013 or lower effective rigidity moduli are considered (Newman et al., 2001, 2006; Bonaccorso et al., 2005; Trasatti et al., 2005). Under the assumption of elastic rheology, the amplitude of the deformation field for a spheroidal pressure source is linearly related to the intensity factor V∙ΔP/μ (V = volume, ΔP = pressure change, μ = rigidity modulus). Hence, the effect of changes in pressure and in volume of a spheroidal source on the ground deformation cannot be separated from the estimate of rheology parameters. Because of the close link between crustal rigidity, source pressure and deformation, a lack of insight into the rheology contributes to increase the uncertainty on source volumes and associated pressures (Newman et al., 2001; Bonaccorso et al., 2005). Differences between the static elastic modulus and the dynamic elastic modulus deduced from seismic velocities can furthermore alter these estimates (Ciccotti and Mulargia, 2004; Cheng and Johnston, 1981). Therefore, the correct estimate of the magmatic source pressure from the ground deformation is still an open issue. The inclusion of an anelastic rheology also affects the estimate of pressure change. Particularly, a viscoelastic shell around the magmatic source requires less overpressure than a purely elastic model to produce comparable deformation (Dragoni and Magnanensi, 1989; Newman et al., 2001; Newman et al., 2006; Del Negro et al., 2009). A further reduction of the overpressure could be obtained by considering an elasto-plastic rheology for the material surrounding the magmatic source. This behavior is expected to enhance deformation with respect to both the viscoelastic and the elastic rheologies, and hence to require a geologically satisfactory pressure (Trasatti et al., 2003). In this work, we evaluated the temperature dependence of the ground deformation using a thermo-mechanical numerical model. Finite Element Method (FEM) was used to compute the temperature 312 G. Currenti et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 296 (2010) 311–318 distribution in the medium generated from a volcano chamber hosting the magma. We developed an elasto-plastic model in which the magmatic source, embedded in an elastic heterogeneous 3D medium, is surrounded by a region where high temperature induces plastic behavior. This model was applied to re-analyze the ground deformation accompanying the 1993–1997 inflation period on Mt Etna that preceded the 2001 and 2002–03 eruptions. 2. Temperature-dependent elasto-plastic numerical model 2.2. Elasto-plastic rheology When a rock is strained beyond an elastic limit, Hooke's law no longer applies. The behavior of rocks beyond their elastic limit is rather complicated. Generally, when the stress exceeds a critical value (the yield strength), the material will undergo plastic deformation. During an infinitesimal increment of stress, strain changes ɛ can be split up into elastic ɛe and plastic ɛ p components: e p ð3Þ dε = dε + dε It is reasonable to assume that rocks near the magma source are considerably heated and weakened beyond the brittle-ductile transition temperature, where elasto-plastic rheology is more appropriate to describe the mechanical behavior of the rocks. This behavior has also been proven by several laboratory experiments, conducted on rocks under high temperature and low pressure, which show a strong decrease in static modulus with increasing temperature (e.g. Rocchi et al., 2002; Tuffen et al., 2008). In order to investigate the effects of the plastic rheology, we used FEM to construct a temperature-dependent elasto-plastic model in the region around the magma chamber. We used the values of the rheological parameters estimated by Rocchi et al. (2004) and Balme et al. (2004) from experiments under simulated conditions on actual rocks from Etna. Firstly, we developed a temperature model to derive the rheology behavior of the medium from the computed temperature distribution. Secondly, we constructed an elasto-plastic deformation model in which the magmatic source is embedded in an elastic medium and surrounded by a temperature-dependent region of elasto-plastic material. Thirdly, we compared the elastic and anelastic strain responses of the magmatic host rocks using a simple 3D axi-symmetric model. The plastic strain increments are related to the yield function (or yield surface) F that specifies the stress conditions required for plastic flow and prescribes the relationships among stress components during flow. The yield surface F depends on the state of stress and strain and on the history of loading. Plastic strain can occur only if the stresses satisfy the general yield criterion: p Fðσ; ε ; κÞ = 0 ð4Þ where κ is a work hardening parameter defining the plastic deformation history of the material. If yielding occurs, we need further information concerning the increment or rate of deformation in order to complete the description of the material behavior. Drucker (1951) showed that the plastic strain increment vector must be normal to the yield surface at a regular point. The normality principle leads to the associated flow rule (i.e., the stress/strain relation): p dεij = G ∂F ∂F dσ ∂σij ∂σkl kl ð5Þ 2.1. Temperature distribution where To derive the temperature profile, we numerically solved the heat conduction equation: G = − ∇ ·ðk∇TÞ = −AðzÞ Different work hardening functions can be assumed on the basis of stress–strain relationships fitting to experimental measurements on rocks. A few of the more common forms of hardening functions are illustrated in Fig. 1. A perfectly plastic material neglects the effect of work hardening and the stress increments lie on the yield surface. Several yield criteria have been developed to model the mechanical behavior of rocks undergoing plastic deformation. Mohr–Coulomb law and its approximation in 3D case, given by Drucker–Prager failure criterion, are often used for modeling plastic behavior (Cattin et al., 2005). Davis et al. (1974) showed that a zone around a magma chamber that exhibits Mohr–Coulomb failure causes the effective pressure source to expand outwards including both the magmatic zone and the enveloped of failed rock. The net result is that for a given surface deformation the stresses are much lower than required by elastic models only. Chery et al. (1991) investigated a model in which the upper crust exhibits pressuredependent plasticity versus the lower crust, which exhibits temperaturedependent viscoplasticity with a von Mises yield criterion. With increasing temperature, ductility increases and failure behavior changes from brittle ð1Þ where T is the temperature field, k is thermal conductivity, z is the depth, and A(z) = AS exp(−z/b) is the crustal volumetric heat production, where As is the volumetric rate of heat production at ground surface, and b is a characteristic depth of the order of 10 ± 5 km. Since the deformation timescales are much shorter than those over which the magma chamber evolution takes place, the temperature distribution, and hence the elasto-plastic volume, can be considered as steady. As boundary condition at the ground surface, we assumed that the surface is kept constant at atmospheric temperature, since the thermal conductivity of the air is much smaller than that of the ground. We assigned the geothermal temperature values at bottom and lateral boundaries, because they are far enough to not be affected by the magmatic source. A steady-state geothermal profile, which holds for the upper lithosphere, was used (Ranalli, 1995; Turcotte and Schubert, 2002): TðzÞ = Ts + q z m + k 2 As b k ! −z = b 1−e ∂F ∂εpmn 1 + ∂F ∂κ ∂κ ∂εpmn ∂F ∂σmn ð6Þ ð2Þ where Ts is the surface temperature, and qm is the heat flow coming from the mantle. A continuous refilling of the magma chamber was simulated by setting the temperature on the source wall. Physically, this boundary condition is equivalent to stating that the magma wall acts as a heating source (Dragoni et al., 1997; Civetta et al., 2004). Fig. 1. Examples of common types of hardening functions in the elasto-plastic rheology: A) perfect plastic solid, B) linear strain hardening solid, and C) power-law hardening solid. G. Currenti et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 296 (2010) 311–318 Fig. 2. Temperature field distribution assuming a source wall temperature of Tw = 1200 K. fracture to ductile flow. The high temperature around a heated magmatic source may lead the rocks behavior toward ductility rather than brittleness, and yielding occurs mainly by ductile flow. At this point, there is no longer any pressure dependence of the strength and the behavior is fully ductile (Scholz, 2002). Therefore, the Mohr–Coulomb criterion may apply to the most of the edifice where brittle failure takes place, but not to the hot rock surrounding a magma chamber, where von Mises plasticity criterion can better describe the ductile behavior of the medium. The von Mises criterion is usually adopted as a suitable criterion for the ductile domain of the lithosphere, where high temperatures induce ductile deformation and plasticity controls the rock behavior (Cattin et al., 2005). This criterion assumes that isotropic deformation is always related elastically to the mean pressure, while the deviatoric strain is elastically related to deviatoric stress until yielding is not reached, then plastic strain takes place at constant deviatoric stress. The yielding function F=I2′−κ 2 depends only on the second invariant I2′=1/2σ′ij σ′ij of the deviatoric stress σ′ij =σij −1/3I1δij, while the first invariant of deviatoric stress I1′=σ′kk is identically zero. For a work hardening material, κ will be allowed to change with strain history. For an ideal plastic material obeying von Mises condition, κ is a constant independent of strain history and it is related to the yield stress σy of the material in pure shear. Therefore, the material exhibits linear elasticity as long as I2′≤σy2/3, and plasticity occurs when the second invariant reaches the yield strength σy2 (Fung, 1965; Ranalli, 1995). 313 outermost lateral boundaries and on the bottom are fixed to zero, while the boundary at the ground surface is stress-free. Macroscopic experiments, which investigate the mechanical behavior in triaxial tests at high temperatures, show two principal mechanical effects: (i) thermal softening and (ii) thermally enhanced ductility. Therefore, we computed the deformation field for three different cases: (i) elastic, (ii) temperature-dependent elastic and (iii) elasto-plastic rheology. The first model is a three-layered elastic half-space with Poisson ratio ν= 0.25. A very soft layer with a Young's modulus of 2 GPa was assumed for the upper part extending from the ground surface to 2 km. A Young's modulus of 40 GPa was assumed for the second layer from 2 km to 6 km, whereas a Young's modulus of 80 GPa was used for the third layer from 6 km to 50 km. The second and third models were constructed introducing in the layered half-space a shell surrounding the magmatic source. The thickness of the shell is dependent on the temperature state of the magmatic source. The temperature field distribution (Fig. 2) was computed solving the thermal model with values of the model parameters reported in Table 1. The temperature on the magma chamber wall was set to Tw =1200 K. Laboratory experiments on basaltic rocks have shown that the elastic modulus decreases steadily with temperature and ductility is expected above 900 K at a differential stress of about 10–15 MPa (Rocchi et al., 2004; Dingwell, 1998). Etnean rocks remain fully brittle up to 900 K, and above this temperature the elastic modulus decreases reaching 10% of the original value (Rocchi et al., 2004). Therefore, in the second model the rigidity modulus varies linearly with the temperature (18 MPa/K) besides 900 K, and is kept at 10% of the initial values above 1100 K. In the third model an elasto-plastic behavior was supposed in the shell surrounding the source, while the remaining domain was set as elastic. For this third model, starting from the temperature distribution, we modified the properties of the medium through the constitutive equations, allowing the element of the computational domain to behave elastically or plastically in function of the temperature distribution. We associated different rheologies to the medium: (i) elastic behavior where the temperature values are below 900 K, and (ii) elasto-plastic behavior above this threshold. To simulate the ductile behavior of the hot rocks surrounding the magma chamber, we implemented the yield stress/strain laws considering an ideal plastic behavior obeying to von Mises criterion. The yield strength of surrounding rocks was assumed as σy =15 MPa, while the elastic parameters of the medium are those of the first model previously described. An overpressure of 100 MPa was applied on the source wall. Model results are shown in Fig. 3. The layered elastic model gives a 2.3. Comparison between elastic and anelastic strain in a 3D axi-symmetric model We developed a 3D axi-symmetric model using FEM in order to assess the effect of rheology on the surface deformation field. Computations were carried out by the commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics, version 3.3 (Comsol, 2006). In such a case a simpler twodimensional domain can be considered by exploiting the symmetries. The source has a spherical geometry with a radius of 0.5 km and is centered at 4 km depth. The axi-symmetric model is composed of ∼ 200,000 triangular elements, covering a rectangular half-space that extends 50 km horizontally from the source centre and 50 km below the ground surface. For boundary conditions, the displacements on the Table 1 Thermal model parameters. Thermal parameters Ts qm k As b Surface temperature Heat flow Thermal conductivity Volumetric rate of heat production Length scale for crustal radioactive decay 300 K 0.03 Wm− 2 4 Wm− 1 K− 1 2.47 × 10−6 Wm− 3 14.170 km Fig. 3. Comparison of the deformation expected from a pressurizing (100 MPa) chamber centered at a 4 km depth in a layered medium for different rheologies: A) elastic, B) elastic with varying temperature, C) elasto-plastic. 314 G. Currenti et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 296 (2010) 311–318 Table 2 Pressure sources from geodetic data inversion at Mt Etna (after Bonforte et al., 2008). All models are based on elastic analytical solutions except Bonaccorso et al. (2005), who also used a numerical solution. Period Source Lat ([UTM km]) Long ([UTM km]) Depth ([km]) ΔP ⁎ V ([N ⁎ m]) Rigidity ([GPa]) Reference Data Sept 1993–Jul 1994 Jun 1993–Oct 1995 Jul 1996–Jul 1997 Sept 1993–Jul 1997 Sept 1993–Jul 1997 Sept 1994–Sept 1998 Sept 1993–Jul 2000 Jul 1994–Jul 2001 Mogi Yang Mogi Mogi Davis Mogi Mogi Mogi 4179 4177.67 4180.9 4179.45 4177.96 4181 4181.37 4180.5 500 499.89 497.61 496.96 500.7 500 496.93 499 3.8 4.8 9.3 6.8 4 5 8.1 6.2 2.19 × 1017 2.74 × 1017 13.69 × 1017 17.24 × 1017 9.6 × 1017 2.32 × 1017 28.84 × 1017 33.4 × 1017 not reported 30 not reported 30 heterogeneous 10 30 not reported Puglisi et al. (2001) Lundgren et al. (2003) Puglisi and Bonforte (2004) Palano et al. (2007) Bonaccorso et al. (2005) Obrizzo et al. (2004) Palano et al. (2007) Houlie´ et al. (2006) GPS InSAR GPS GPS EDM, GPS levelling GPS GPS vertical uplift above the source center of about 7.5 cm. When the elastic modulus is decreased with temperature, an enhancement to 9.0 cm is obtained. The elasto-plastic model considerably enhances the ground uplift to a 14.5 cm, which is about twice than that obtained for the heterogeneous elastic model. These results show that the presence of a plastic region can greatly amplify the strain response. deformation accumulated during the long-lasting inflation phase from 1993 to 1997 indicates a permanent deformation of the volcano edifice (Bonforte et al., 2008) and also suggests investigating an elasto-plastic rheology. Therefore, we re-analyzed the ground deformation accompanying the 1993–1997 inflation period on Mt Etna assuming a heated pressurized magma chamber embedded in an elasto-plastic heterogeneous medium. 3. Etna application and results 3.1. Etna 1993–97 recharging phase 3.2. Model application On Mt Etna, between the 1993 and 1997, geodetic data collected by different monitoring networks (EDM, GPS, and leveling) identified an inflationary phase. This was characterized by a uniform and continuous expansion of the overall volcano edifice that was not accompanied by eruptive activity (Bonaccorso et al., 2005). The beginning of the inflationary phase was detected from the comparison of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images taken from 1993 to 1995. The inversion of interferograms yielded results that were interpreted as a spheroidal magmatic source located at about 5 km b.s.l. (Lundgren et al., 2003). Also leveling data supported the presence of a point-like pressurized source beneath the summit craters at 4.5 km b.s.l. (Obrizzo et al., 2004). A recharging phase was also highlighted by GPS data (Puglisi et al., 2001; Puglisi and Bonforte, 2004). Most interpretations of the deformation on Mt Etna from 1994 to 2004 (Table 2) were based on a homogeneous elastic half-space model. Despite the different geodetic data, the methodologies used and the results achieved, the values of intensity factor V∙ΔP/μ are similar for most of the models (Table 2), but it is not possible to determine them unambiguously because of the tradeoff between the volume and overpressure of the source. Assuming a homogeneous half-space with an elastic shear modulus of 30 GPa, Lundgren et al. (2003) from SAR images estimated a pressure of about 5 MPa for a spheroidal source with a volume of 68.69× 109 m3, which is definitely too high as it has never been revealed by seismic investigations. Bonaccorso et al. (2005) interpreted the 1993–1997 GPS and EDM data using an analytical model of an ellipsoidal source with a volume of 3 ×109 m3, an overpressure of 20 MPa and a low homogeneous shear modulus of 1 GPa. They also evaluated the effect of topography and medium heterogeneity on the deformation field using a numerical simulation employing an elastic model. Since the average values of the shear modulus used in the simulation, which had been estimated from seismic velocity measurements, were larger than those used in the homogeneous analytical model, the observed displacements in the heterogeneous models were reproduced by increasing the overpressure up to about 300 MPa. The source inferred by the simpler analytical model is equivalent to a lower pressurized magma chamber surrounded by a lower rigidity, which can be considered as a sort of “effective” rigidity requiring the need to use an anelastic rheology (Bonaccorso et al., 2005). Recently, Del Negro et al. (2009) reviewed the 1993–1997 inflation phase on Mt Etna using a 3D temperature-dependent viscoelastic numerical model, which allows producing deformation comparable with those obtained from elastic model with a lower pressure of about 200 MPa. The We adopted the source geometry determined by Bonaccorso et al. (2005), which is an ellipsoid located 4.2 km bsl beneath the central craters (latitude 4177.9 UTM km and longitude 500.7 UTM km). The ellipsoid has a semi-major axis of 1854 m and the other two semi-axes of 725 m and 544 m, respectively, with an orientation angle of 124° and a dip angle of 77°. Our model domain is a large volume extending 100 × 100 × 50 km in order to avoid artifacts in the numerical solution because of the proximity of the boundary. The mesh of the ground surface was generated using a digital elevation model of Mt Etna from the 90 m Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data and bathymetry model from GEBCO database (http://www.gebco.net/). The computational domain was represented by 77,475 arbitrarily distorted tetrahedral elements connected by 13,634 nodes. The mesh resolution is about 100 m around the ellipsoidal source, about 300 m in the area surrounding the volcano edifice, and decreases to 10 km in the far field. We performed eight models to investigate how the ground deformation is affected by the rheology parameters (elastic moduli, yield strength, and temperature threshold) and thermal state (source wall temperature). The elastic moduli were fixed to those inferred from seismic tomography (Currenti et al., 2007, 2008b), whereas different yield strength values were used in accordance with laboratory measurements on basalts from Etna (Rocchi et al., 2004; Balme et al., 2004). A vertical geothermal gradient of 22 K/km was assumed for the areas surrounding the volcano edifice in agreement with the temperature measurements carried out in deep boreholes (AGIP, 1977). The source wall temperature Tw was chosen to range between 1100 and 1200 K (Corsaro and Pompilio, 2004). The effect of the transition Table 3 Elasto-plastic model parameters. The misfit function is shown in Fig. 4. Model σy ([MPa]) Tw ([K]) Tt ([K]) χ2 ΔP ([MPa]) A B C D E F G H 10 15 20 10 10 10 15 15 1100 1100 1100 1200 1200 1100 1200 1200 900 900 900 800 900 800 800 900 1.19 × 104 1.19 × 104 1.19 × 104 1.15 × 104 1.17 × 104 1.16 × 104 1.16 × 104 1.18 × 104 95 98 102 46 69 59 53 75 G. Currenti et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 296 (2010) 311–318 Fig. 4. Chi-square values obtained varying the overpressure from 0 to 120 MPa for different parameters of elasto-plastic models (see Table 3). The chi-square value for the elastic model using a pressure of about 300 MPa (Bonaccorso et al., 2005) is also reported (horizontal thick line). temperature Tt, which controls if the behavior of the medium is elastic or elasto-plastic, was investigated in a range from 800 to 900 K where laboratory experiments showed ductile deformation failure (Rocchi et al., 2004). The parameters used in all models are reported in Table 3. For each model, we performed different simulations varying the magma overpressure from 1 MPa to 120 MPa (with a step of 1 MPa) and computed the chi-square value χ2 as: 2 χ = ∑ðUxobs −Uxcalc Þ + ∑ðUyobs −Uycalc Þ σH2 + ∑ðUzobs −Uzcalc Þ σV2 ð7Þ where Uobs and Ucalc are the observed and computed displacements respectively, and σ is the standard deviation of the measurements (Bonaccorso et al., 2005). The standard deviation affecting measurements ranges between 2 and 3 mm in the horizontal components and between 5 and 6 mm in the vertical component. The χ2 values are shown in Fig. 4 for all the models and the pressure changes Fig. 5. Vertical uplifts for the elasto-plastic models D (gray lines) and G (black lines) at OBS (solid lines), TDF (dotted lines), ESLN (dashed lines) stations (see Fig. 7 for the positions) for increasing source pressure. 315 corresponding to the minimum χ2 that best fits the geodetic data are reported in Table 3. The pressure change estimates range between 46 MPa (model D) and 102 MPa (model C). In all the models, as the pressure increases, the deformation starts to grow linearly as far as the yield condition is not satisfied. When the elastic limit is reached, the ground deformation increases more rapidly since plastic deformation prevails. In the models with lower values of the yield strength (A, D, E, F), the medium fails plastically at lower values of the pressure change and the ground deformation is enhanced with respect to the other models (Fig. 5). Therefore, the pressure estimates are strongly dependent on the model parameters. The value of pressure, which gives the minimum χ2 value, is tuned by the yield strength. The higher the yield strength, the higher the pressure required to obtain the same amount of deformation. Besides the yield strength, another sensitive parameter is the transition temperature. As the threshold temperature decreases, the volume participating to the elasto-plastic flow increases and gives more contribution to the plastic deformation. A variation of 100 K in the temperature is sufficient to vary the estimated pressure from 46 MPa (model D) to 69 MPa (model E) when the other parameters are kept constant. Further simulations were performed assuming a decrease in rigidity modulus with increasing temperature for the models A, B, and C. Following the results of laboratory tests on basalt rock samples from Etna (Rocchi et al., 2004), we assumed that the elastic modulus decreases steadily at 900 K reaching 10% of the original values at 1100 K. The comparison among the different models shows that the dependence of the elastic modulus on temperature does not affect the simulation results very much (Fig. 6). A slight difference is obtained at lower overpressure when the deformation is almost elastic. When the plastic deformation prevails on the elastic deformation, it becomes the dominant process and the effect of variations in the elastic modulus due to temperature is negligible. The minimum χ2 values of the elasto-plastic models are comparable with each other and less than the χ2 value of the elastic model (Fig. 4). On the basis of the χ2 values, all the considered models provide similar fits to the data with fairly similar pressure changes, which are well below the value obtained using an elastic rheology. The minimum χ2 is obtained by the model D (Fig. 4), which also requires the minimum pressure change (46 MPa). The fit to the data is slightly improved from 1.4 × 104 for the elastic model to 1.1× 104 for the elasto-plastic model (Fig. 7). It is worth noting that the elasto-plastic model uses a pressure change of only 46 MPa, whereas the elastic model needs an unrealistic Fig. 6. Chi-square values obtained varying the overpressure from 0 to 120 MPa for different elasto-plastic models: (i) A, B, and C (continuous lines) simulations with rigidity modulus independent on temperature, (ii) AEt, BEt, CEt (dotted lines) simulations using decreasing rigidity modulus with increasing temperature. 316 G. Currenti et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 296 (2010) 311–318 Fig. 7. Comparison between GPS observed (black) and computed deformation during the 1993–1997 period. The numerical computations are performed assuming a heterogeneous elastic medium (red, after Bonaccorso et al., 2005) and the elasto-plastic model D (blue). Horizontal displacements (top) and vertical displacements (bottom) are calculated at GPS stations. Assuming the same volume and rigidity, the elastic model requires an overpressure of ≈ 300 MPa, whereas the elasto-plastic model reaches similar deformation with an overpressure of ≈ 46 MPa. pressure of about 300 MPa to get comparable deformation. The elastic model with a 46 MPa of pressure change would have caused ground uplifts of few centimeters, whereas the elasto-plastic model reaches tens of centimeters (Fig. 8). Interpretation of long-term deformation is complicated by the coarse spatial resolution of the available geodetic data, and the contribution of more than one mechanism to the observed ground displacements. A significant contribution to the horizontal displacements on the easternmost stations (MIL and GIA), affected by flank instability, could be given by the effect of the sliding of the volcano eastern flank (Bonaccorso et al., 2006), which could also alter the estimate of the source parameters. It is worth noting that our numerical models disregard the stress induced by the topographic load. In the near-surface region, topography loading can make the stress state different from the lithostatic stress state (zero deviatoric stress), usually assumed for half-space model. Due to the topography, the medium is initially in a non-zero deviatoric stress G. Currenti et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 296 (2010) 311–318 317 have perturbed the geothermal gradient and, hence, the mechanical behavior of the surrounding rocks. Recently, Bonforte et al. (2008) showed that the deformation observed during the long-lasting inflation phase was not recovered in the following eruptive period, indicating a permanent deformation of the volcano. The deformation seems to be mainly accumulated following a non-elastic behavior. All these evidences point to the elasto-plastic rheology as the more probable behavior to perform more realistic numerical simulations. Results suggest that the integration of the material rheology variations into volcano deformation modeling is a critical and necessary advancement toward more reliable predictions for eruptive activity. Acknowledgments Fig. 8. Comparison between the vertical uplift along the AB profile (Fig. 7) for the elastic (dashed line) and elasto-plastic model D (solid line) using a pressure change of 46 MPa. state and the elastic limit could even be reached with a lower source overpressure. 4. Discussion and conclusions Geodetic observations are useful to discriminate between different deformation models (elastic, viscoelastic, and elasto-plastic) and may provide valuable constraints on the rheological and mechanical parameters of the medium. The elastic models usually require either overpressures of several hundred MPa or exceedingly high source volumes to justify the observed ground deformation. High overpressure values are unrealistic as the induced stresses would be so high that rocks would fracture because of the low tensile strength of common solid rocks (Balme et al, 2004; Haimson and Rummel, 1982; Schultz, 1995; Amadei and Stephansson, 1997). We showed that the overpressure can be lowered to geologically satisfying values if elasto-plastic behavior is taken into account. We tested the elasto-plastic behavior for the recharging phase occurred between 1993 and 1997 on Etna volcano. Despite the clear evidence of the overall volcano edifice expansion identified at Mt Etna by different geodetic data (InSAR, leveling, GPS and EDM), the estimate of source parameters is still under debate. The high overpressure foreseen by the elastic models is incompatible with the low levels of both volcanic activity and seismicity occurring in the analyzed period (Patanè et al., 2003). The low seismicity associated with the recharging phase in the time interval 1993–1997 would support the hypothesis that the volume surrounding the pressurizing source could mainly have failed by ductility rather than brittleness. Although the summit craters were continuously degassing between March 1993 and July 1995, no fresh magma reached the surface (Allard et al., 2006). Afterwards, a series of paroxysmal eruptions occurred at the summit craters (Bocca Nuova and North-East craters), whereas the South-East crater became active in the autumn of 1996 after 5 years of repose. This volcanic activity was very modest and only in the middle of 1998 significantly resumed with a series of lava fountaining from the summit craters (Allard et al., 2006). A shallow broad region of low Qp hot fluids has been recognized on the west of an high rigidity body beneath the South-East flank of Etna volcano (Martinez-Arevalo et al., 2005; De Gori et al., 2005; Patanè et al., 2006), which concurs with the location of the estimated ellipsoidal source inferred by Bonaccorso et al. (2005) and used in the elasto-plastic model in this work. 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