Vaccines for Prevention of Group B Meningococcal Disease Not Your Father’s Vaccines Lee H. Harrison For decades, there was no licensed vaccine for prevention of endemic capsular group B meningococcal disease, despite the availability of vaccines for prevention of the other most common meningococcal capsular groups. Recently, however, two new vaccines have been licensed for prevention of group B disease. Although immunogenic and considered to have an acceptable safety profile, there are many scientific unknowns about these vaccines, including effectiveness against antigenically diverse endemic meningococcal strains; duration of protection; whether they provide any herd protection; and whether there will be meningococcal antigenic changes that will diminish effectiveness over time. In addition, these vaccines present societal dilemmas that could influence how they are used in the U.S., including high vaccine cost in the face of a historically low incidence of meningococcal disease. These issues are discussed in this review. (Am J Prev Med 2015;49(6S4):S345–S354) & 2015 by American Journal of Preventive Medicine and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Introduction D uring the past year, two new vaccines to prevent capsular group B meningococcal disease have been licensed. These vaccines are different from other licensed vaccines: the vaccine antigens were identified using reverse vaccinology, they have been unusually painstaking to develop, it has been technically difficult to estimate potential impact, and actual impact will be unusually challenging to monitor post-licensure. The licensure of these vaccines is an exciting and much-anticipated development. However, many important scientific questions remain unanswered about the potential public health impact that can only be answered post-licensure. In addition, the relatively low incidence of group B disease, in combination with the high cost of the vaccines in the U.S., has raised concern that these vaccines may not be widely used. In this review, I will give a brief overview of meningococcal disease epidemiology and the two licensed group B vaccines and then discuss some salient scientific and societal issues that may influence their impact and how widely they will be used. This is meant to be an overview of some of the challenges in vaccine prevention of group B meningococcal From the Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Research Unit, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA USA Address correspondence to: Tel.: þ1 412 624 1599. E-mail: [email protected]. 0749-3797/$36.00 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2015.09.007 & 2015 by American Journal of Preventive Medicine and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. disease; reviews of group B vaccines themselves have been published elsewhere.1–3 Although the vaccines are technically not exclusively group B vaccines because the proteins they employ are present in meningococci independent of capsular group, for simplicity I refer to them as group B vaccines throughout this review. Background Meningococcal Disease and Epidemiology Neisseria meningitidis is a major cause of meningitis and other invasive bacterial infections globally. There are 12 known meningococcal polysaccharide capsular groups yet six, namely A, B, C, W, X, and Y cause almost all infections. The case fatality rate is around 10–15% and permanent sequelae are common.4–7 Transmission of N. meningitidis occurs through contact with respiratory secretions of colonized persons; pharyngeal carriage rates vary widely by time and geography but typically are highest in adolescents and young adults.8–11 Because of both the naturally dynamic nature of meningococcal disease epidemiology and the introduction of conjugate vaccines, the epidemiology of meningococcal disease has changed dramatically over the past few years. In the U.S., there has been a huge decline in the incidence of meningococcal disease since an incidence peak in the mid1990s. The prevalence of meningococcal carriage among U.S. high school students has also declined.11,12 Most of the decline in incidence was natural because it preceded the Am J Prev Med 2015;49(6S4):S345–S354 S345 S346 Harrison / Am J Prev Med 2015;49(6S4):S345–S354 routine use of quadrivalent conjugate vaccine in 11–18 year olds in 2005.13 In addition, the incidence of group B infections has also declined, which would not have been influenced by conjugate vaccine.6 The reasons for the decline are unknown but are likely multifactorial, variable by geographic location, and non-independent, and include reductions in both active and passive tobacco smoking, changing patterns of antibiotic use, use of influenza vaccines, declines in meningococcal carriage, and lack of development of novel antigenic variants among virulent strains to which the population is not immune. The incidence of meningococcal disease is naturally cyclical and it is unknown whether the incidence will increase in the future. As a result of this natural decline and the routine use of quadrivalent conjugate vaccines in adolescents, the current annual burden of meningococcal disease in the U.S. is at historically low levels, approximately 0.14 cases per 100,000 population, in contrast to the most recent peak of 1.3 cases per 100,000 population in 1997. Meningococcal disease incidence is approximately tenfold higher in the U.K. than in the U.S.14 In the U.S., approximately a third of all cases are caused by group B. However, the proportion varies by age group, with two thirds of cases among infants under 1year-old and 39–45% of cases among 11–22 year olds being caused by group B.15 During 2010–2012, there were an estimated 48–56 annual group B cases among 11–24 year olds, down from 161 during 1997–19997; the case fatality rate in this age group is approximately 10%, somewhat lower than for groups C and Y. About a third of cases among 18–23 year olds occur among persons attending college, a high-risk group that historically was targeted for meningococcal immunization in the U.S.16–18 University-associated outbreaks, traditionally caused by group C strains, are now predominantly caused by group B and are becoming relatively common.19,20 Since 2013, there have been group B outbreaks at Princeton University, University of California-Santa Barbara, Providence College, and University of Oregon. Group B strains are also responsible for a substantial proportion of meningococcal disease cases in many other countries. In those in which monovalent group C vaccines have been introduced, group B disease has become a predominant cause of meningococcal disease. For example, over 80% of cases in the U.K. and Australia are caused by group B strains.21,22 decades; the advent of polysaccharide–protein conjugate vaccines has been more recent. Polysaccharide vaccines are limited by lack of efficacy in infants and lack of substantial herd protection. Therefore, polysaccharide vaccines were generally used for control of outbreaks and epidemics and immunization of highrisk persons.23 Given the immunologic superiority of conjugate vaccines, over the past 15 years they have been replacing polysaccharide vaccines and have been introduced into the routine immunization programs of many countries.24,25 There are multiple licensed conjugate vaccines that variably cover capsular groups A, C, W, and Y. Until recently, however, a glaring problem with the meningococcal vaccine armamentarium has been the lack of vaccines to prevent group B disease. This is because the group B polysaccharide polysialic acid structure, α-2,8linked N-acetylneuraminic acid, is antigenically similar to human neural tissue, which has raised concerns about its use as a vaccine antigen. Therefore, group B vaccine development has focused on antigenic meningococcal outer membrane proteins and has lagged far behind the conjugate vaccines.26 Over the past 15 years, meningococcal conjugate vaccines have had an impressive impact in countries that have introduced them. For example, monovalent capsular group C conjugate vaccines have led to huge reductions in group C disease in the United Kingdom and other countries.27–29 MenAfriVac, a monovalent group A conjugate vaccine that is being introduced at a price of $0.40 per dose into the meningitidis belt of subSaharan Africa, has already had a dramatic impact on the epidemiology of group A disease.30–32 A substantial proportion of the public health impact of meningococcal conjugate vaccines has been mediated through herd protection that results from vaccineinduced reductions in pharyngeal carriage.33 For example, monovalent group C conjugate vaccines led to a 66% and 75% reduction in group C carriage in U.K. adolescents by one to two years, respectively, after mass immunization.34,35 Similarly, MenAfriVac led to a dramatic reduction in group A carriage when high vaccine coverage rates were achieved in African villages.36 Vaccine-induced reductions in carriage have generally been accompanied by large reductions in the incidence of meningococcal disease among the unimmunized.37 Meningococcal Polysaccharide and Conjugate Vaccines Until very recently, all meningococcal vaccines in routine use have been either capsular polysaccharide or capsular polysaccharide-protein conjugate vaccines. Meningococcal polysaccharide vaccines have been available for Group B Vaccines Outer membrane vesicle vaccines, in which the outer membrane protein PorA is the primary antigen, have been used to control outbreaks of group B disease for many years.38,39 However, immunity to these vaccines is specific to the outbreak strain PorA type and they are therefore not www.ajpmonline.org Harrison / Am J Prev Med 2015;49(6S4):S345–S354 useful for prevention of the antigenically very diverse strains that cause endemic group B disease.40,41 Therefore, efforts to develop group B vaccines have focused on relatively conserved antigenic outer membrane proteins. There are two recently licensed group B vaccines; both utilize meningococcal outer membrane proteins as their antigens. Antigenic discovery was accomplished through reverse vaccinology, a process that began over 15 years ago with the mining of the meningococcal genome for possible vaccine targets.42,43 Both vaccines exhibit substantial reactogenicity but are considered to have an acceptable safety profile. Licensure was based on safety and immunogenicity; no efficacy data are available for either vaccine because of the difficulty in conducting a clinical trial for a lowincidence infection. Immunogenicity was determined using serum bactericidal assays with human complement as an immunologic marker of protection, which have been validated for tailor-made outer membrane vesicle-based vaccines that use PorA as the main antigen.38,44,45 One vaccine, (4CMenB, Bexsero, Novartis, whose vaccine business, excluding influenza, was recently acquired by GlaxoSmithKline) is licensed for infant and adolescents in Europe, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere and in the U.S. as a two-dose schedule for 10–25 year olds. It is a cocktail of one variant each of factor H binding protein (FHbp), NadA, Neisseria heparin binding antigen (NHBA), and the outer membrane vesicles that contain the New Zealand outbreak strain PorA serosubtype P1.4. The second vaccine (rLP2086, Trumenba, Pfizer), which is licensed in the U.S. as a 3-dose schedule for ages 10–25 years, utilizes one variant of lipidated FHbp from each of the two FHbp subfamilies. FHbp is an important meningococcal virulence factor that binds human factor H, which down-regulates the alternative complement pathway. FHbp has been described as a conserved antigen but exhibits substantial antigenic diversity and has been classified into two subfamilies or 3 variant groups, each with many subvariants; antibody response is sub-family specific.46,47 FHbp elicits antibodies that are bactericidal and that can potentially block the binding of human factor H on the meningococcal cell surface. NadA is a meningococcal adhesion molecule that has 5 known variants. NadA is subject to phase variation and is absent from the important sequence type 41/44 group B meningococcal lineage.24 NHBA is expressed by most meningococcal strains. The vaccine includes the most common variant and this component induces antibody that results in cross-reactivity with many variants.48 PorA serosubtype P1.4 is the PorA variant that was successfully used in the vaccine to control the New Zealand outbreak. P1.4 is a relatively infrequent allele in settings of endemic group B meningococcal disease and therefore its role as an December 2015 S347 antigen is relatively limited; however, the OMVs that contain PorA serve both antigenic and adjuvant roles. Group B vaccine effectiveness against group B disease in a given population can be estimated based on immunogenicity against homologous and heterologous strains and knowledge of the vaccine-antigen profile of strains causing invasive disease, including presence and expression of vaccine antigen genes.46,49 Estimating potential vaccine effectiveness for group B vaccines is technically challenging because of the complexity of the vaccines, the strengths and weakness of the various approaches that are used, and the temporal and geographic dynamics of the strains causing invasive disease.2 The proportion of group B strains that potentially would be covered by the vaccine in a given population has been estimated using several methods that have been reviewed elsewhere.1,2 Use of group B vaccines. Based in part on the success of group C conjugate vaccines in Canada, 94% of Québec Province’s meningococcal cases among persons 1–24 during 2009–2011 were caused by group B strains.50 The annual incidence of group B meningococcal infection among persons 20 years old and younger in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region of Québec was 12.0 per 100,000, as compared to 1.7 in the rest of the province.51 In response, a 4CMenB campaign was initiated that resulted in the immunization of over 45,000 infants, young children and adolescents 2 months–20 years old, using a schedule of four doses in infants 2–5 months old, three doses for 6–11 months and two doses for persons 12 months and older.52 The campaign was conducted from May through December 2014; an estimated 81% of the target population received at least one dose. In response to the group B outbreaks associated with Princeton (9 cases from March 2013 to March 2014, including one fatal case) and University of CaliforniaSanta Barbara (4 cases during November 2013), approximately 5,000 and 20,000 persons were vaccinated with 4CMenB, respectively.53 Vaccine was provided under an investigation new drug designation by the Food and Drug Administration because at the time 4CMenB was not licensed in the U.S.7 At the February 2015 ACIP meeting, it was stated that no concerning patterns of adverse events have been observed based on this Canadian and U.S. experience with 4CMenB, but no data were provided. In a recent outbreak at Providence College involving 2 cases since February 1, 2015, rLP2086 was administered to students.54 In a University of Oregon outbreak involving 6 cases since January 2015, including one fatal case, approximately 10,000 doses of group B vaccine had been administered as of April 8, 2015, 80% of which was rLP2086 and the remainder 4CMenB (Paul Cieslak, personal communication). S348 Harrison / Am J Prev Med 2015;49(6S4):S345–S354 The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization, which advises U.K. health departments on immunization issues, recommends an infant 4CMenB schedule, with doses to be given at 2, 4, and 12 months of age.55 Vaccine implementation is expected to begin soon. At its February 2015 meeting, ACIP recommended routine use of rLP2086 or 4CMenB for high-risk individuals 10 years of age and older: persons with medical conditions such as complement deficiencies and apslenia, microbiologists with routine or potential exposure to N. meningitis, and during outbreaks.56 Together, these persons are estimated to total around 340,000 in the U.S. At the June 2015 meeting, ACIP made a category B recommendation for use of these vaccines in persons 16–23 years old, meaning that the decision whether to vaccinate or not is based on “individual clinical decision making”. This is opposed to a category A recommendation, which would have meant that all persons in that age group are recommended for immunization. Based on the discussion at the meeting, the reticence for a category A recommendation was based on the low disease burden and many of the unresolved issues that are outlined below. The recommendation will not be official until it is approved by the CDC director and published in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Routine immunization of infants is not currently being considered by ACIP because there will be no licensed group B vaccine in this age group in the U.S. for at least several years. ACIP does not recommend routine use of meningococcal conjugate vaccines for all U.S. infants.57,58 The recommendation was based in part on a low burden of disease and that the conjugate vaccines do not prevent group B disease. The manufacturer of 4CMenB will not seek licensure for U.S. infants as a standalone vaccine because it has developed an investigational pentavalent vaccine that covers groups A, B, C, W and Y.59,60 rLP2086 induced fever in a substantial proportion of infants and is not being pursued for licensure in infants.61 Unresolved Scientific and Societal Issues Scientific Issues Although there are many unresolved issues regarding new group B vaccines, the following predictions can be made: (1) they will be effective in preventing group B disease, (2) cross protection for vaccine antigen component variants will occur, with the breadth likely being variable by age (e.g., less in infants than adolescents) and meningococcal strain (e.g., cross protection will correlate with the degree of antigenic relatedness to the vaccine components and degree of protein expression).48,62,63 (3) effectiveness will decline over time, (4) herd protection, if any, will be less than for the monovalent group A and C conjugate vaccines, and (5) achieving high vaccine coverage in adolescents with these multi-dose vaccines will be challenging in some countries. Potential vaccine effectiveness against group B strains. Determination of immunogenicity of 4CMenB involves measuring the proportion of subjects who respond to each of the vaccine components, which is technically difficult. That said, immunogenicity among infants (three-dose schedule) and adolescents (two doses) has been high.64 Persistent albeit waning antibody levels have been demonstrated in adolescents at 18–24 months and children immunized before the age of 5 years; antibody persistence differed by vaccine antigen.62,65 In a European study, it was estimated that 4CMenB could potentially provide protection against 78% of group B strains.66 For the U.S., group B strain coverage was estimated at 91%.67 Among healthy adults 18–40 years old immunized with three doses of rLP2086, 94% achieved seroprotection, defined as an hSBA titer of Z1:4, against the a strain with the FHbp variant contained in the vaccine. For strains with heterologous FHbp variants, seroprotection was achieved in 70–95%.68 The vaccine was also immunogenic in children 8–14 years old.69 Sera from adults immunized with rLP2086 induced killing in 84.5% of isolates causing invasive disease.1 No published antibody persistence data are available for rLP2086. For both vaccines, actual vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection are unknown. Herd protection. As indicated above, herd protection has been a huge contributor to the success of monovalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines. A major question has been whether group B vaccines induce herd protection. In a recent study of two doses of 4CMenB in U.K. university students, the vaccine was associated with a 26% reduction in carriage of capsular groups B, C, W, and Y 2–12 months after vaccination.70 There was a similar reduction in carriage of capsular group B strains but the finding was not statistically significant. There was no statistically significant impact on acquisition of strains of any vaccine group; the mechanism by which conjugate vaccines are believed to reduce carriage is through prevention of carriage acquisition.71 In short, the results of this study were inconclusive; many questions about potential herd protection provided by these vaccines remain unanswered. While reduction in carriage was not demonstrated specifically for group B strains, the study suggested that the vaccines may influence meningococcal carriage. However, the point estimate for the reduction was substantially lower than www.ajpmonline.org Harrison / Am J Prev Med 2015;49(6S4):S345–S354 for group C vaccines, namely 66% at one year following immunization. Importantly, the durability of any impact on carriage is unknown. I am skeptical that herd protection from these vaccines, if any, will be close to that provided by monovalent capsular group A and C vaccines. Changes in strains causing invasive disease. Bacterial genomes are highly dynamic and can undergo changes that lead to reduced vaccine effectiveness. Changes in meningococcal strain antigenic profile occur in the absence of vaccination41,72,73; group B vaccine-induced population immunity could theoretically select for strains not covered by vaccines, including those with no or reduced vaccine antigen expression. While this has not been observed for meningococcal vaccines, it has for vaccines against other bacterial pathogens. For example, the emergence of serotype 19A pneumococcus following introduction of seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine was caused in part by strains that had undergone capsular switching from vaccine serotype strains.74 In addition, there has been a large increase in the proportion of clinical Bordetella pertussis isolates that do not express the pertussis vaccine antigen pertactin and there is evidence of possible vaccine-induced selection of pertactin-deficient strains.75,76 Although it is unknown whether this phenomenon will occur with the new group B vaccines, there are worrisome signs that were evident pre-licensure. Invasive meningococcal strains that lack porA or fHbp have been described.72,77 and, as mentioned above, nadA is absent from a substantial proportion of meningococcal strains. The ability to cause invasive disease despite absence of FHbp is preserved because of alternative mechanisms by which N. meningitidis can bind to human factor H.78,79 Disruption of the nhbA gene by insertion sequence IS1301 in a Brazilian invasive group C isolate, which also lacked the nadA gene, has been identified.80 Invasive meningococcal strains lacking fetA, another outer membrane protein that has been proposed as a possible meningococcal vaccine antigen, have also been described.81 Selection for vaccine antigen-negative strains represents perhaps one of the biggest theoretical threats to the long-term effectiveness of licensed group B vaccines. Even if vaccine antigen-negative strains do not become a problem, vaccine effectiveness could be reduced by the changes in the allelic distribution of protein antigens among strains causing invasive disease.82 Difficulties in achieving high vaccine coverage. High coverage rates for recommended vaccines are generally achieved among infants, regardless of the number of December 2015 S349 required doses. In contrast, achieving high coverage rates in U.S. adolescents has been challenging. For example, quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine coverage in adolescents, which originally involved only a single dose when first recommended in 2005, increased gradually from 11% in 2006 to only 78% in 2013.83,84 Human papilloma virus vaccine, which is given in the U.S. as a 3 dose schedule, had only 57.3% coverage for one or more doses among females in 2013 and substantially lower coverage for all three doses.84 Thus, there will be substantial challenges in achieving high vaccine coverage in adolescents, particularly with the current category B recommendation. Societal Issues In addition to the scientific uncertainties that are outlined above, there are the societal issues that are relevant for group B vaccines. One of the key issues about meningococcal vaccines in developed countries in general, including those for group B disease, is that they are in some settings not cost-effective because of high vaccine price and low disease incidence. In some countries, such as the U.K., cost-effectiveness is a criterion for introduction into the national immunization program. In the U.S., costeffectiveness is “considered” by ACIP but ACIP members are not provided with specific guidance on how to incorporate cost-effectiveness data into decision making. Vaccine prices have risen dramatically in the U.S., which has placed a strain on both society and physicians.85,86 The per-dose price to the CDC Vaccines for Children Program is $122.95 for 4CMenB and $95.75 for rLP2086 (www.cdc.gov/vaccines/programs/vfc/awar dees/vaccine-management/price-list/). As with other vaccines, cost-effectiveness analyses are presented to ACIP when considering use of group B vaccines.57 The cost of 4CMenB has been a major issue in the U.K., where the government only recently agreed upon a price with the manufacturer. The price per dose has not been officially disclosed but was reported in the U.K. press to be £20 (approximately $31), which is around the upper limit of the cost effective price range under favorable assumptions.87,88 However, this price could not be verified. The high cost of vaccines for rare but devastating infections raises the question as to what burden of disease “qualifies” for a recommendation to immunize a population. At the October 2014 ACIP meeting, an informational session was held to discuss possible uses of group B vaccines. What follows below is a sample of sentiments and opinions that were expressed during a public comment period at that meeting following a presentation about possible uses of group B vaccines in S350 Harrison / Am J Prev Med 2015;49(6S4):S345–S354 the U.S., including individuals at high risk for meningococcal infection and immunization of all adolescents versus just those enrolled in college. The comments below addressed the issues of vaccine prevention for a rare but unusually severe disease, cost, immunization of college students versus all adolescents, impact on the vaccine industry, and precedents with other vaccines. Vaccine prevention of a rare but severe infectious disease. Ms. Frankie Milley, National Executive Director of Meningitis Angels stated that “Nobody in this country should die from a vaccine preventable disease.” Dr. Carol Baker, former ACIP Chairwoman, asked what other vaccine preventable disease in the U.S. has a 10% case fatality rate. Immunization of a select group rather than all adolescents. Dr. Stanley Plotkin, a former ACIP liaison member, expressed the opinion that a recommendation for college students, rather than all adolescents, would be discriminatory because only 29% of disease in this age group occurs among college students. Vaccine cost/cost effectiveness. Dr. Baker also commented on the difficulty in knowing how much the U.S. should spend on vaccine prevention of rare diseases, and that this will be an issue with which CDC and ACIP will continue to struggle. She also reminisced about when vaccines were inexpensive. Precedent and consistency. Dr. Paul Offit, also a previous ACIP member, discussed when ACIP recommended replacement of oral polio vaccine (OPV) with inactivated vaccine (IPV) in the 1990s because essentially all poliomyelitis cases in the U.S. at the time were caused by OPV. This change was estimated to cost $3 million ($4.7 million adjusted for inflation) per case prevented.89 During 1980–1994, there was an average of 8 reported vaccine-associated paralytic polio cases per year. Although not discussed at the meeting, in 2012 ACIP recommended immunizing women with acellular pertussis vaccine during every pregnancy in large part to prevent around 15 annual infant pertussis deaths. Thus, ACIP has a history of making routine vaccine recommendations for prevention of relatively few cases. Impact on vaccine industry of lack of routine ACIP recommendation for licensed vaccines. Dr. Plotkin also observed that two vaccine manufacturers had invested large sums of money to develop group B vaccines and that “if these vaccines are not recommended then this puts a pall on vaccine development. This has great implications for vaccine development.” Dr. Plotkin described this issue as an undiscussed “400 pound gorilla”. The opinions expressed during the public comment, including those from former ACIP members, appeared to favor routine use of group B vaccines in adolescents. However, ACIP has taken a cautious middle ground with its category B recommendation in 16–23 year olds, as opposed to no recommendation or a category A recommendation. Moving Forward I would prefer to eventually see routine use of group B vaccines in adolescents and infants in the U.S. for several reasons. First, use of these vaccines, in combination with meningococcal conjugate vaccines, would allow for prevention of as many meningococcal disease cases in this group as possible. Second, the occurrence of multiple university-associated group B outbreaks in the U.S. is worrisome. The initiation of immunization campaigns in response to outbreaks, particularly with the current vaccines that require 2 (4CMenB) or 3 (rLP2086) doses over 1 or 6 months, respectively, to achieve maximum protection, is not particularly effective; it would be much more desirable to prevent these outbreaks entirely. Third, widespread use in large populations will allow for postlicensure studies to answer many of the key scientific and public health questions that are outlined below. It is only with these studies that it will become clear whether nextgeneration group B vaccines will be required. Fourth, although not sufficient rationale in of itself for vaccine use, I share the concern that failure to utilize licensed meningococcal vaccines might have a negative impact on industry’s willingness to develop new vaccines for this and other low-incidence but devastating infections. On the other hand, I am also quite concerned that, given the high price of these vaccines in the U.S., it may be difficult to justify their use to the fullest potential. The uncertainties about the public health impact of these vaccines can only be resolved through postlicensure studies in large populations in which the vaccines are used. Much of what is known about the impact of Haemophilus influenzae type b, pneumococcal, and monovalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines became known following widespread usage.90–93 Public health surveillance is needed to measure trends in capsular group-specific meningococcal disease incidence, including in age groups that are not immunized to make inferences about herd protection. Detailed molecular characterization of invasive meningococcal isolates obtained through surveillance, including identification of www.ajpmonline.org Harrison / Am J Prev Med 2015;49(6S4):S345–S354 vaccine antigen variants and quantification of antigen expression, will be required to identify emergence of strains that could diminish vaccine effectiveness. Largescale studies to measure the impact and durability of group B vaccines on carriage are also needed. Although measuring acquisition of carriage in immunized and unimmunized cohorts over time is an ideal study design, large cross-sectional studies conducted before and after vaccine introduction were effective in demonstrating impact of monovalent group C conjugate vaccines on carriage.34,35 Observational studies to measure vaccine effectiveness over time will address the issue of optimal immunization schedules and need for booster doses. However, it is doubtful that post-licensure vaccine effectiveness can be measured in the U.S. with the current category B recommendation and, given the current low burden of disease, might be challenging even with a category A recommendation. Long-term follow-up of vaccinated individuals will be needed to measure the persistence of serum bactericidal antibodies. All of these data can be used to inform computational models to estimate the impact of various approaches on disease incidence and cost-effectiveness. Long-term safety will also need to be monitored given the novel composition of these vaccines. It is only after these types of studies are performed that we will understand how far we have come with these two new vaccines and what work lies ahead. Conclusions and Future Directions We are in an exciting era in which long-awaited group B vaccines are finally licensed. The current low burden of group B disease presents both scientific and policy challenges for studying and implementing these vaccines. Once widely used, it will take years to measure vaccine impact. I doubt that the current vaccines will be the last word in vaccine prevention of group B disease and I believe that, depending on the outcome of post-licensure studies, novel approaches will eventually be needed. Group B meningococcal vaccines are different from other licensed vaccines and there are many unresolved scientific issues and barriers to implementation. However, global prevention of group B meningococcal disease is a goal that is worth achieving. This article is being published concurrently in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine and Vaccine. The articles are identical except for stylistic changes in keeping with each journal’s style. Either of these versions may be used in citing this article. Publication of this article was supported by Merck and Novartis. Dr. Harrison previously received research support from Sanofi Pasteur and lecture fees from Sanofi Pasteur and December 2015 S351 Novartis Vaccines. He previously served on scientific advisory boards for GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, Novartis Vaccines, Pfizer, and Sanofi Pasteur. All relationships with industry were terminated before Dr. Harrison became a voting member of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on July 1, 2012. The opinions expressed in this article are exclusively those of Dr. Harrison and not those of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices or the University of Pittsburgh. References 1. McNeil LK, Zagursky RJ, Lin SL, Murphy E, Zlotnick GW, Hoiseth SK, et al. Role of factor H binding protein in Neisseria meningitidis virulence and its potential as a vaccine candidate to broadly protect against meningococcal disease. Microbiol Mol Biol Rev. 2013;77:234– 252 PMCID: 3668674. 2. Andrews SM, Pollard AJ. A vaccine against serogroup B Neisseria meningitidis: dealing with uncertainty. Lancet Infect Dis. 2014;14: 426–434. 3. Rollier CS, Dold C, Marsay L, Sadarangani M, Pollard AJ. The capsular group B meningococcal vaccine, 4CMenB: clinical experience and potential efficacy. Expert Opin Biol Ther. 2015;15:131–142. 4. Viner RM, Booy R, Johnson H, Edmunds WJ, Hudson L, Bedford H, et al. Outcomes of invasive meningococcal serogroup B disease in children and adolescents (MOSAIC): a case-control study. Lancet Neurol. 2012;11:774–783. 5. Kaplan SL, Schutze GE, Leake JA, Barson WJ, Halasa NB, Byington CL, et al. Multicenter surveillance of invasive meningococcal infections in children. Pediatrics. 2006;118:e979–e984. 6. Cohn AC, MacNeil JR, Harrison LH, Hatcher C, Theodore J, Schmidt M, et al. Changes in Neisseria meningitidis disease epidemiology in the United States, 1998–2007: implications for prevention of meningococcal disease. Clin Infect Dis. 2010;50:184–191. 7. MacNeil J. 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