1 HLTH 230: Global Health: Challenges and Responses
Professor Richard Skolnik
Teaching Fellow: Nidhi Parekh
By submitting this essay, I attest that it is my own work, completed in accordance with
University regulations. —Sudhakar Nuti
Cardiovascular Disease in China
by Sudhakar Nuti
From: Honorable Li Bin, Minister for Health
To: Honorable Lou Jiwei, Minister for Finance
Introduction:
Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in China.1 CVD primarily affects
rural, poor, low-educated Chinese who live in the North. The leading risk factors for CVD are
tobacco consumption, inappropriate nutrition, and reduced physical activity.2 CVD is associated
with impaired neuropsychological function, household impoverishment, and economic losses in
the form of loss of productivity. To immediately and efficiently address this issue, China must
increase tobacco taxation, implement educational campaigns to reduce smoking, and reduce salt
consumption.
Nature and Magnitude of the Problem:
Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in China.3 CVD is a
group of disorders that involve the heart and blood vessels, principally coronary heart disease,
cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral arterial disease.4 These disorders also lead to acute
events that are categorized under CVD, such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke.5
In China, an estimated three million deaths occur due to CVD annually, which accounts for 40%
of all deaths.6 Additionally, an estimated 230 million, approximately 20% of Chinese people,
have CVD.7 The annual number of CVD events will increase by more than 50% per year
between 2010 and 2030 based on aging and population growth alone.8 Above and beyond the
demographic effects, an additional 21.3 million CVD events and 7.7 million deaths will occur
between 2010 and 2030 if projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and
active smoking do not change.9
1 2 Affected Populations:
CVD primarily affects rural, poor, low-educated Chinese who live in the North. CVD
mortality rate in rural areas is 252.86/100,000 (a 32.18/100,000 rise since 2004), while in urban
areas the rate is 217.50/100,000 (a -11.56/100,000 fall since 2004).10 Low education and lowincome are closely associated with increased risk of AMI in China: the lowest income groups
have an odds ratio of 1.19 compared to the highest income group (1.00), and those with less than
8 years of education have an odds ratio of 1.53 compared to those with a higher education
(1.00).11
In addition, Chinese with low incomes, low education, and who live in the Northern
region have higher levels of CVD risk factors, such as tobacco consumption, high blood
pressure, and high body mass index.12 For example, those with the lowest incomes are 1.4 times
more likely to be smokers compared to those with the highest incomes, and men with less than
12 years of education are 1.7 times more likely to be current smokers than men with higher
education. Also, women with less than 6 years of education had a 29-fold increased likelihood of
being smokers compared to women with higher education.13 Furthermore, those in the Northern
region have a higher percentage of current smoking (23.2%), overweight (36.7%), obesity
(4.8%), hypertension (16.7%), and waist to hip ratio (0.88) than those living in the Southern
region (15.5%, 15.3%, 1.2%, 11.8%, 0.86, respectively).14 15
Risk Factors:
The leading risk factors for CVD are tobacco consumption, inappropriate nutrition, and
reduced physical activity.16 Cigarette smokers are two to four times more likely to develop
coronary heart disease (CHD) and twice as likely to have a stroke than non-smokers.17 In
addition, non-smokers who are exposed to secondhand smoke increase their risk of heart disease
2 3 by 25-30%.18 This is especially a problem in China, where over 300 million people smoke,
consuming an estimated 1.7 trillion cigarettes per year.19 62% of Chinese men smoke actively,
and at least 49% of non-smokers (predominately women) are exposed to second- and third-hand
smoking at home or at work.20 21 China is also the world’s largest tobacco producer.22
A higher salt intake is associated with a greater incidence of total cardiovascular events.23
Chinese people intake greater than 12 g of salt per day per person, twice the maximum intake
recommended by the World Health Organization. 24 In addition, there is a strong inverse
association between fruit and vegetable intake and the risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease
– those who consume fruits and vegetables more than three times per day compared to less than
once a day had a 27% lower cardiovascular disease mortality.25 While there was an increase in
fruit consumption in Chinese households from 1993 to 2001, there has been a significant
decrease in vegetable consumption during the same time period.26
Physical inactivity has been associated with a 1.5- to 2.4-fold increase in CHD risk.27
China has experienced a decline in metabolic equivalents of task (MET), a measure of physical
activity, from 399 MET hours per week in 1991 to 213 MET hours per week in 2009.28 This
trend will continue, as China’s physical activity is projected to drop to 188 MET hours per week
by 2030.29 Time spent in sedentary behaviors is also projected to increase from 20 hours/week in
2009 to an estimated 25 hours/week in 2030.30 Moreover, these three behavioral risk factors are
the root causes of other conditions that contribute to the manifestation of CVD, such as
overweight, central obesity, high blood pressure, dyslipidemia and diabetes. 31
Physical and Socioeconomic Consequences:
CVD
is
associated
with
impaired
neuropsychological
function,
household
impoverishment, and economic losses in the form of loss of productivity. In addition to mortality
3 4 and physical disability, such as paralysis and speech difficulty after strokes, CVD also results in
impaired neuropsychological function. 32 Studies have linked CVD to accelerated cognitive
decline, structural and functional brain abnormalities, and vascular dementia.33 Depression is
also three times more likely to occur in patients after a heart attack than in the general
population.34
The high costs of CVD treatment can drive families, especially those with low incomes in
rural households, into poverty.35 In China, general medical spending has raised the number of
rural households living below the poverty line by 44.3%.36 In 2003, the CVD burden in China
lead to $26.1 billion in direct health costs, with only 23.9% of outpatient costs and 35.2% inpatient costs, on average, paid by medical insurance.37 Thus, if CVD is not addressed and
financial protection is not provided, the costs of treatment and care will likely drive even more
Chinese households into poverty.
From 2005 to 2015, China is projected to annually lose US $53 billion of national income
due to deaths from heart disease, stroke and diabetes.38 39 By 2015, China will lose an estimated
1.18% of GDP to NCD deaths, up from 0.31% of GDP in 2005.40 In addition, more than 6
million years of potentially productive life are lost in China each year due to heart disease and
stroke, and in 2030 the number of years of productive life lost will rise to almost 10.5 million.41
While presently 30-40% of CVD deaths occur in Chinese people of working age, the loss of
productivity will be exacerbated in 2030, where over half of the expected 9 million CVD deaths
will occur in those aged 35-64.42
Priority Action Steps:
To immediately and efficiently address this issue, China must increase tobacco taxation,
implement educational campaigns to reduce smoking, and reduce salt consumption. To start,
4 5 reducing CVD mortality will pay large dividends, as a 1% per year reduction produces an annual
benefit of about US $2.34 trillion (PPP), while a 3 percent reduction would amount to an annual
benefit US $5.40 trillion (PPP).43 Towards this end, it has been found that tobacco taxation has
the highest benefit-cost ratio (40:1) in order to reduce tobacco consumption.44 At an annual cost
of only $0.5 billion and with a low level of implementation capacity required, taxation will
produce a benefit of 1 million deaths averted annually and can also raise substantial revenues in
China.45 In fact, aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in
2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 would prevent 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades.46
In addition, an estimated one out of three male teenagers smokes.47 In order to prevent the next
generation of young Chinese from tobacco- and CVD-related deaths, it is necessary to implement
school education programs, such as Project HRIDAY from India, that target youths, have a
significant impact on tobacco use, and are highly cost-effective.48
Salt reduction is another investment with a high benefit-cost ratio (20:1), as a $1 billion
annual investment produces a benefit of 1.3 million deaths averted per year.49 It has been found
that a reduction in salt intake from 10g to 5g per day could reduce CVD by 17%.50 China can
learn from the UK “All Salted?” Program, which utilized consumer education, food
reformulation, and food labeling to reduce salt consumption by 0.9 g per person per day.51 In the
long term, China should invest in media campaigns, agricultural policy changes with respect to
vegetable availability, and better city planning to reduce the unhealthy diets and physical
inactivity associated with CVD.52
5 6 1
Gu D. Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Clustering Among the Adult
Population of China. Circulation. 2005;112:685-665.
2
Reddy KS. Cardiovascular diseases in the developing countries: dimensions, determinants,
dynamics and directions for public health action. Public Health Nutrition. 2002;5(1A): 231–237
3
Gu D. Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Clustering Among the Adult
Population of China.
4
Cardiovascular Disease. Wikipedia Commons. 2013. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardiovascular_disease. Accessed April 27, 2013.
5
World Health Organization. Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs). March 2013. Available at:
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs317/en/. Accessed April 27, 2013.
6
Journal of Asian health. Cardiovascular Disease in China: Why Should We Care? 2013.
Available at: http://journalofasianhealth.com/article.php?title=cardiovascular-disease-in-chinafull. Accessed April 27, 2013.
7
Ibid.
8
Moran A. Future Cardiovascular Disease in China: Markov Model and Risk Factor Scenario
Projections From the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model -China. Circ Cardiovasc Qual
Outcomes. 2010;3:243-252.
9
Ibid.
10
Zhang X. THE TREND AND VARIATION OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE
MORTALITY FROM YEAR OF 2004 TO 2010 IN CHINA. Heart. 2012;98: E1-136.
11
Guo J. Influence of socioeconomic status on acute myocardial infarction in the Chinese
population: the INTERHEART China study. Chinese Medical Journal 2012;125(23):4214-4220.
12
Yu Z. Associations between socioeconomic status and cardiovascular risk factors in an urban
population in China. Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 2000;78 (11): 1296-1305.
13
Ibid.
14
Reynolds K. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Overweight and Obesity in China. Obesity. 2007;
15 (1): 10-18.
15
Teo K. Potentially modifiable risk factors associated with myocardial infarction in China: the
INTERHEART China study. Heart. 2009;95:1857–1864.
6 7 16
Reddy KS. Cardiovascular diseases in the developing countries
17
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Heart Disease and Stroke. 2012. Available at:
http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/basic_information/health_effects/heart_disease/. Accessed April 27,
2013.
18
Ibid.
19
World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. Smoking Statistics. Geneva: World Health
Organization. 27 May 2002. Available at:
http://www.wpro.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs_20020528/en/index.html. Accessed April 27,
2013.
20
Liu J. Predictive value for the Chinese population of the Framingham CHD risk assessment
tool compared with the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study. JAMA. 2004; 291(21):2591-9.
21
Moran A. Future Cardiovascular Disease in China
22
World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. Smoking Statistics.
23
Strazzullo P. Salt intake, stroke, and cardiovascular disease: meta-analysis of prospective
studies. BMJ 2009;339:b4567.
24
The World Bank. Toward a Healthy and Harmonious Life in China: Stemming the Rising Tide
of Non-Communicable Diseases. Washington, DC. 2011. Available at:
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2011/07/26/toward-health-harmonious-life-chinastemming-rising-tide-of-non-communicable-diseases.
25
Bazzano L. Fruit and vegetable intake and risk of cardiovascular disease in US adults: the first
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. The
American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 2002;76:93–9.
26
Liu K. Changes in Fruit and Vegetable Consumption over Time and across Regions in China:
A Difference-in-Differences Analysis with Quantile Regression. American Agricultural
Economics Association Annual Meeting. 2008. Available at:
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/6531.
27
Rastogi T. Physical activity and risk of coronary heart disease in India. International Journal
of Epidemiology. 2004 Aug;33(4):759-67.
28
Ng S. Time use and physical activity: a shift away from movement across the globe. Obesity
reviews. 2012;13:659-680.
29
Ibid.
30
Ibid.
7 8 31
Reddy KS. Cardiovascular diseases in the developing countries
32
Million Hearts. About Heart Disease & Stroke. 2013. Available at:
http://millionhearts.hhs.gov/abouthds/cost-consequences.html. Accessed April 27, 2013.
33
Cohen R. Neuropsychology of Cardiovascular Disease. USA, Oxford University Press; 2009.
34
Williams R. Depression After Heart Attack: Why Should I Be Concerned About Depression
After a Heart Attack?. Circulation. 2011;123:e639-e640.
35
World Health Organization. Global Status report on noncommunicable diseases 2010. Geneva:
World Health Organization. 2011. Available at:
http://www.who.int/nmh/publications/ncd_report2010/.
36
Liu Y. Medical Expenditure and Rural Impoverishment in China. Journal of health,
population, and nutrition. 2003 Sep;21(3):216-222.
37
Yang L. Economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in China. Expert Rev Pharmacoecon
Outcomes Res. 2008 Aug;8(4):349-56.
38
World Health Organization. An estimation of the economic impact of chronic
noncommunicable diseases in selected countries. Geneva: World Health Organization 2006.
Available at: www.who.int/chp/working_paper_growth%20model29may.pdf.
39
Journal of Asian health. Cardiovascular Disease in China: Why Should We Care?
40
World Health Organization. An estimation of the economic impact of chronic
noncommunicable diseases in selected countries.
41
The Center for Global Health and Economic Development. A Race Against Time: The
Challenge of Cardiovascular Disease in Developing Economies. Columbia University. 2004.
Available at: http://bit.ly/11vBp58.
42
Ibid.
43
The World Bank. Toward a Healthy and Harmonious Life in China
44
Jha P. Chronic Disease. Copenhagen Consensus 2012. 2012. Available at:
http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/projects/copenhagen-consensus-2012/research/chronicdisease.
45
The Center for Global Health and Economic Development. A Race Against Time.
46
Moran A. Future Cardiovascular Disease in China
8 9 47
World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. Smoking Statistics.
48
Reddy KS. Tobacco and alcohol use outcomes of a school-based intervention in New
Delhi. American Journal of Health Behavior. 2002 May-Jun;26(3):173-81.
49
Jha P. Chronic Disease.
50
Consensus Action on Salt and Health. Salt and cardiovascular disease. 2010. Available at:
http://www.actiononsalt.org.uk/salthealth/factsheets/stroke/. Accessed April 27, 2013.
51
National Children’s Bureau. ‘All salted?’ Reducing salt intake in young parents and their
children Summary. 2008. London. Available at:
www.food.gov.uk/multimedia/pdfs/ncballsalted.pdf.
52
The Center for Global Health and Economic Development. A Race Against Time.
9