Guide X - a Step by step, Markup %ased Approach to Guideline

*XLGH;±D6WHSE\VWHS0DUNXS%DVHG
$SSURDFKWR*XLGHOLQH)RUPDOLVDWLRQ
9RMW FK69È7(.7RPiã.5283$0DUHN5
ä,ý.$
/DERUDWRU\IRU,QWHOOLJHQW6\VWHPV)DFXOW\RI,QIRUPDWLFVDQG6WDWLVWLFV
8QLYHUVLW\RI(FRQRPLFV3UDJXH:&KXUFKLOO6T3UDKD&]HFK5HSXEOLF
HPDLO^VYDWHN[NURW[UX]P`#YVHF]
$EVWUDFW 7KH PDLQ GLIILFXOWLHV RI FRQYHUWLQJ WKH RULJLQDO WH[WXDO IRUP RI PHGLFDO
JXLGHOLQHVWRDFRPSXWHUWUDFWDEOHIRUPDUHFRQQHFWHGERWKZLWKWKHDPELJXLW\RIWKH
QDWXUDO ODQJXDJH WH[W DQG ZLWK WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH UHVXOWLQJ IRUPDO DQG
RSHUDWLRQDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ SURFHHGLQJ GLUHFWO\ IURP RQH WR WKH RWKHU LV WKXV DQ
H[WUHPHO\ GHPDQGLQJ WDVN 7KH SURSRVHG *XLGH; PHWKRGRORJ\ DGGUHVVHV WKLV
SUREOHP YLD GHFRPSRVLQJ WKH ZKROH SURFHVV RI JXLGHOLQH RSHUDWLRQDOLVDWLRQ LQWR
VHYHUDO VWHSV HDFK RI ZKLFK UHTXLUHV D GLIIHUHQW PL[WXUH RI W\SHV PHGLFDO
NQRZOHGJH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ W\SRJUDSKLFDO DQG GHJUHHV RI H[SHUWLVH 7KH SULQFLSDO
WHFKQRORJ\ XVHG LV WKDW RI ;0/ WDJJLQJ XVLQJ ERWK SUHH[LVWLQJ DQG QHZO\
GHYHORSHG ODQJXDJHV 7KH UHVXOW RI HDFK VWHS LV FRQQHFWHG HOHPHQW E\ HOHPHQW WR
WKH UHVXOWV RI SUHYLRXV VWHSV WKXV PDNLQJ WKH YHULILFDWLRQ DQG UHYLVLRQ RI WKH
RSHUDWLRQDOLVDWLRQ SURFHVV HDVLHU 7KH PHWKRGRORJ\ LV FXUUHQWO\ WHVWHG LQ WKH
GRPDLQ RI K\SHUWHQVLRQ WUHDWPHQW ZLWKLQ WKH IUDPHZRUN RI WKH 0HGLFDO *XLGHOLQH
7HFKQRORJ\SURMHFWRIWKH(8)RXUWK)UDPHZRUN3URJUDPPH
,QWURGXFWLRQ
0HGLFDO JXLGHOLQHV 0* DUH VWDQGDUG PHDQV IRU GLVVHPLQDWLRQ RI PHGLFDO NQRZOHGJH DQG
IRU SXWWLQJ WKURXJK KHDOWKFDUH VWDQGDUGV 7KH\ DUH DSSOLHG LQ YDULRXV DUHDV RI PHGLFLQH DQG
UHFRJQLVHG DOWKRXJK VRPHWLPHV FULWLFLVHG E\ WKH PHGLFDO FRPPXQLW\ ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKH
WH[WXDO IRUP RI 0*V DWWHQWLRQ LV FXUUHQWO\ SDLG WR WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI WKHLU IRUPDOLVDWLRQ DQG
VXEVHTXHQW FRPSXWDWLRQDO SURFHVVLQJ :LWKLQ WKH IUDPHZRUN RI FXUUHQW SURMHFWV VHH
VHFWLRQV DQG VRSKLVWLFDWHG ODQJXDJHV IRU IRUPDO DQG RSHUDWLRQDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI
JXLGHOLQHV KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG ZKLFK DOORZ IRU DXWRPDWHG SURFHVVLQJ RI VHYHUDO JXLGHOLQH±
UHODWHGWDVNV±DGYLVLQJFULWLTXLQJFRPSDULQJHWFVHHHJ>@IRUDQRYHUYLHZ
&RPSDUDEO\ OHVVHU DWWHQWLRQ KDV EHHQ KRZHYHU SDLG WR WKH SUREOHP RI WUDQVIHUULQJ WKH
NQRZOHGJH FRQWDLQHG LQ WKH RULJLQDO JXLGHOLQH WH[W LQWR WKHVH ODQJXDJHV 0RVW DSSURDFKHV
DVVXPH WKDW WKH IRUPDOLVDWLRQ LV EDVHG RQ H[WHQVLYH LQWHUDFWLRQ ZLWK D GRPDLQ H[SHUW KHUH
PHGLFDOGRFWRUZKRWDNHVIXOOUHVSRQVLELOLW\IRUWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHUHVXOWLQJPRGHODQGIRULWV
OR\DOW\ WR WKH LQWHQWLRQV RI WKH JXLGHOLQH +RZHYHU VLQFH WKH H[SHUW PD\ EH SURQH WR HQWHU
WDFLWO\ SLHFHV RI KLV RZQ RU KLV FOLQLF¶V NQRZOHGJH WKLV DSSURDFK LV QRW VXLWDEOH IRU WDVNV LQ
ZKLFK WKH RULJLQDO FRQVHQVXDO WH[W VKRXOG SOD\ WKH NH\ UROH 7KH IRUPDOLVDWLRQ SURFHVV
VKRXOG WKHQ EH YLHZHG UDWKHU DV ³H[SHUW±DVVLVWHG NQRZOHGJH H[WUDFWLRQ IURP WH[W´ DQG WKH
ORVVRILQIRUPDWLRQRUDGGLWLRQRIH[WHUQDOLQIRUPDWLRQVKRXOGEHPLQLPLVHG
6LQFH ZH DUH GHDOLQJ ZLWK IUHHWH[W GRFXPHQWV LQ WKH RQH HQG RI WKH SURFHVV DQG ZLWK
VWUXFWXUHGV\PEROLFNQRZOHGJHEDVHVLQWKHRWKHUHQGDQH[WUHPHO\XVHIXOWHFKQRORJ\VHHPV
WR EH WKDW RI PDUNXS ODQJXDJHV VXFK DV ;0/ ,Q WKH FRPSXWLQJ ZRUOG WKH DSSOLFDWLRQV RI
;0/ DFWXDOO\ VSDQ IURP DGGLQJ VWUXFWXUDO DQG VHPDQWLF LQIRUPDWLRQ WR WH[WXDO GRFXPHQWV WR
GHVFULELQJ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI GDWDEDVH UHFRUGV DQG H[SUHVVLQJ FRPSOH[ NQRZOHGJH RQWRORJLHV
HJWKH;2/ODQJXDJHVHH>@
,Q WKLV SDSHU ZH ILUVW EULHIO\ FKDUDFWHULVH WKH 0*7 SURMHFW ZKLFK IRUPV WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH
UHVHDUFKGHVFULEHGLQWKLVSDSHUZLWKSDUWLFXODUDWWHQWLRQWRRQHRILWVQRYHOWLHVWKHWZR±WLHUHG
PRGHORI0*VHFWLRQ7KHQZHIRUPXODWHRXUVWHS±E\±VWHSPHWKRGRORJ\QDPHG*XLGH;
IRU FRQYHUWLQJ WKH WH[WXDO IRUP RI PHGLFDO JXLGHOLQHV LQWR DQ RSHUDWLRQDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ ZLWK
WKHKHOSRI ;0/ PDUN±XS DQG UHODWHG ODQJXDJHV VHFWLRQ )LQDOO\ ZH UHYLHZ VRPH UHODWHG
ZRUNVHFWLRQDQGRXWOLQHSHUVSHFWLYHVIRURXUIXWXUHZRUNVHFWLRQ
7KH0*7$SSURDFKWR*XLGHOLQH&RPSXWHULVDWLRQ
*HQHUDO&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKH0*73URMHFW
7KH 0HGLFDO *XLGHOLQH 7HFKQRORJ\ 0*7 SURMHFW RI WKH )RXUWK )UDPHZRUN 3URJUDPPH LV
RQH RI WKH QXPHURXV UHVHDUFK SURMHFWV IXQGHG E\ WKH (& WKDW IRFXV RQ PHGLFDO JXLGHOLQHV ,W
REYLRXVO\VKDUHVPDQ\IHDWXUHVZLWKRWKHUSURMHFWVWKHQHHGRIIRUPDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRI0*V
SDUWLFLSDWLRQRIPHGLFDOGRFWRUVDVGRPDLQH[SHUWVRUSURYLVLRQRIDFFHVVWRHOHFWURQLFSDWLHQW
UHFRUGV(351HYHUWKHOHVVVSHFLILFHPSKDVHVKDYHEHHQIRUPXODWHGERWKEHIRUHWKHVWDUWRI
WKH SURMHFW DQG LQ LWV FRXUVH LQ UHDFWLRQ WR QHZ ILQGLQJV ZKLFK IRUP WKH GLVWLQFWLYH IDFH RI
0*7/HWXVVXPPDULVHWKHPRQO\EULHIO\
”
$OWKRXJK WKH JXLGHOLQH PRGHOV GHYHORSHG VKRXOG EH DV JHQHULF DV SRVVLEOH WKH ILUVW
DSSOLFDWLRQV RI WKH DSSURDFK ZLOO EH LQ WKH GRPDLQ RI FDUGLRORJ\ WKH SLORW DSSOLFDWLRQ
GHDOVZLWKK\SHUWHQVLRQWUHDWPHQW
,WKDVEHHQSRLQWHGRXWUHFHQWO\HJLQ>@WKDWWKHW\SHVRI0* VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHU LQ WKHLU
SURSHUWLHVDQGWKDWDVLQJOHPRQROLWKLFPRGHOLVXQOLNHO\WRFDSWXUHDOORILPSRUWDQWIHDWXUHV
,QVWHDG PRUH VSHFLDOLVHG PRGHOV RU VXE±PRGHOV VKRXOG EH GHVLJQHG 0RVW RI WKH LQWHQGHG
DSSOLFDWLRQV RI WKH 0*7 SURMHFW RXWFRPHV DUH DFWXDOO\ FRQFHUQHG ZLWK WKH W\SH RI JXLGHOLQH
GHQRWHGDV³JXLGHOLQHVIRUFDUHRIFOLQLFDOFRQGLWLRQ´LQWKH,20FDWHJRULVDWLRQ>@7KHVFRSH
RI DSSOLFDELOLW\ RI WKLV VRUW RI 0* VSDQV RYHU PXOWLSOH RIWHQ D ODUJH QXPEHU RI HQFRXQWHUV
DQGWKHHIIHFWVRIWUHDWPHQWDUHREVHUYDEOHRQO\DIWHUDFHUWDLQSHULRG(YHQPRUHVSHFLILFDOO\
PRVWRIWKH0*VLQTXHVWLRQGHDOZLWKGUXJDQGRWKHUIRUPVRIFRQVHUYDWLYHWUHDWPHQWUDWKHU
WKDQZLWKLQYDVLYHSURFHGXUHVDQGZLWKRXW±SDWLHQWVUDWKHUWKDQZLWKLQ±SDWLHQWV
”
7KH SURMHFW WDNHV LQWR DFFRXQW DQ LPSRUWDQW EXW VRPHZKDW QHJOHFWHG JURXS RI 0*±
UHODWHG WDVNV WR EH SRWHQWLDOO\ SHUIRUPHG E\ FRPSXWHU WKH VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV RI
FRPSOLDQFH EHWZHHQ FXUUHQW PHGLFDO SUDFWLFH DQG ³LGHDO´ SUDFWLFH LQFRUSRUDWHG LQ WKH
JXLGHOLQHV$GLVFORVXUHRILQFRKHUHQFHPD\HQWDLOGHSHQGLQJRQWKHVLWXDWLRQPHDVXUHV
IRULPSURYLQJWKHSUDFWLFHDQGRUVXJJHVWHGUHYLVLRQVRIWKHJXLGHOLQHLWVHOI
1RWRQO\WKHJXLGHOLQHW\SHVGLIIHUVRGRWKHWDVNVUHODWHGWRWKHLUSURFHVVLQJVHHHJ>@IRU
D VNHWFK RI W\SRORJ\ $QG REYLRXVO\ WKH UROH RI JXLGHOLQHV WKHPVHOYHV YDULHV DFFRUGLQJ WR
WKH WDVN :KLOH LQ WKH GLUHFW JXLGHOLQH±EDVHG VXSSRUW RI WUHDWPHQW DGGLWLRQ RI QHZ
LQVWLWXWLRQDO RU SHUVRQDO NQRZOHGJH LV PRUH±RU±OHVV GHVLUDEOH VHH HJ >@ LQ WKH DQDO\VLV
RIJXLGHOLQHFRPSOLDQFHZHZRXOGOLNHWRNHHSWKHJXLGHOLQHVWDWHPHQWVFOHDUO\FXWIURPRWKHU
NQRZOHGJHXQWLOWKHSKDVHRIUHVXOWLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ
7KH SURMHFW WDNHV DGYDQWDJH RI WKH UHVXOWV RI RWKHU SURMHFWV SUHYLRXVO\ VROYHG E\ WKH
”
SURMHFW SDUWQHUV 7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW RQHV DUH WKH ,&±7ULSOH& SURMHFW RULHQWHG RQ KLJKO\
VWUXFWXUHG (35 XVLQJ WKH 25&$ V\VWHP >@ >@ DQG WKH 080 0DQDJLQJ
2WKHUJXLGHOLQH±UHODWHG(8SURMHFWVQRWPHQWLRQHGIXUWKHULQWKLVSDSHUDUHHJ35(67,*(352*8,'(RU
352037
8QFHUWDLQW\ LQ 0HGLFLQH SURMHFW GHDOLQJ ZLWK SUREDELOLVWLF PRGHOOLQJ RI PHGLFDO
NQRZOHGJHVHHHJ>@
,QWHUIDFLQJ 0*V WR FRPSOH[ GDWD VWUXFWXUHV RI (35 UHTXLUHV D YHU\ WKRURXJK DQDO\VLV RI
FRQFHSWVGHDOWZLWKLQWKHJXLGHOLQHWH[W6LPLODUO\LQRUGHUWRKDQGOHXQFHUWDLQW\ERWKLQWKH
0* LWVHOI DQG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR PLVVLQJ GDWD V\PEROLF VWUXFWXUHV FDSWXULQJ WKH NQRZOHGJH
H[WUDFWHGIURPWKHJXLGHOLQHVKDYHWREHSURSHUO\GHVLJQHG
”
7KH SURWRW\SH DSSOLFDWLRQV ZLOO EH FUHDWHG ZLWK WKH KHOS RI WKH 2&0/ ± 2SHUDWLRQDO
&RQFHSW0RGHOOLQJ/DQJXDJH>@
6LQFH2&0/LV DQ H[WUHPHO\ SRZHUIXO EXW DOVR DSSURSULDWHO\ FRPSOH[ D ODQJXDJH ZH KDYH
WR NHHS WUDFN RI DOO WKH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQV PDGH LQ WKH SURFHVV RI IRUPDOLVDWLRQ DQG
RSHUDWLRQDOLVDWLRQ
7KH DERYH UHTXLUHPHQWV KDYH OHG DPRQJ RWKHU WR WKH UHFHQW VXJJHVWLRQ RI D WZR±WLHUHG
JXLGHOLQH PRGHO >@ DV ZHOO DV RI WKH IRUPDOLVDWLRQ PHWKRGRORJ\ PDLQ WRSLF RI WKLV SDSHU
GHVFULEHGLQVHFWLRQ:HZLOOQRZVXPPDULVHWKHHVVHQFHRIWKHWZR±WLHUHGPRGHOZKLFKLV
DOVRWKHVWDUWLQJSRLQWRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\
7KH0RGXODU6WUXFWXUDO'LOHPPDDQGWKH7ZR±7LHUHG0RGHO
7KH ODVW GHFDGH KDV VHHQ DQ LQWHQVH GLVFXVVLRQ VHH HJ >@ >@ DERXW WKH DGYDQWDJHV DQG
GLVDGYDQWDJHVRIWZRVW\OHVRIJXLGHOLQHPRGHOOLQJ
”
8VLQJ LQGHSHQGHQW PRGXOHV 6LWXDWLRQ±$FWLRQ 5XOHV 0HGLFDO /RJLF 0RGXOHV $UGHQ
5XOHVRSHUDWLQJLQIRUZDUG±FKDLQLQJRIWHQHYHQW±GULYHQPRGH>@
”
8VLQJ FRPSOH[ VWUXFWXUHV RI LQWHUFRQQHFWHG HOHPHQWV EUDQFKLQJ ORJLF VWDWH WUDQVLWLRQV
SODQV« >@ >@ >@ >@ 7KLV DSSURDFK DOVR IDYRXULWHV WKH XVH RI GHHS NQRZOHGJH
VXFKDVGRPDLQRQWRORJLHVWDVNVDQGJHQHULFSUREOHP±VROYLQJPHWKRGV
)RU ³JXLGHOLQHV IRU FDUH RI FOLQLFDO FRQGLWLRQ´ WKH ODWWHU VHHPV WR EH DQ REYLRXV FKRLFH
VLQFH ZH KDYH WR GHDO ZLWK VHTXHQFHV RI WDVNV WHPSRUDO UHODWLRQV HYROXWLRQ RI SDWLHQW VWDWHV
HWF 7KHUH DUH KRZHYHU WZR LPSRUWDQW SRLQWV WKDW PRWLYDWH D FHUWDLQ UHFRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI WKLV
FRQFOXVLRQ
”
$V REVHUYHG LQ >@ UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ ZLWK LQGHSHQGHQW PRGXOHV LV PRUH LQWXLWLYH IRU
KHDOWKFDUHSURYLGHUVZKRDUHLQWXUQPRUHDSWWRHQWHUWKHLUNQRZOHGJH
”
&RPSDFW VWUXFWXUHV RI EUDQFKLQJ ORJLF DUH GLIILFXOW WR DSSO\ LQ WKH VLWXDWLRQ RI PLVVLQJ
GDWD 0RUHRYHU DQ\ GHYLDWLRQ IURP WKH ORJLF OHDGV WR VXEVHTXHQW LQDSSOLFDELOLW\ RQ WKH
SDUWLFXODU SDWLHQW ± LQ RWKHU ZRUGV WKH LQGLYLGXDO FKXQNV RI NQRZOHGJH FDQQRW EH XVHG
SHUVHLQFDVHWKHSODQLVLQDSSOLFDEOHDVDZKROH
7KH *XL'( DUFKLWHFWXUH >@ PDLQO\ DGGUHVVHV WKH ILUVW REMHFWLRQ YLD LQWHJUDWLQJ WKH WZR
SDUDGLJPV DW WKH OHYHO RI XVHU LQWHUIDFH $V ZH DUH LQWHUHVWHG LQ DXWRPDWHG FRPSDULVRQ RI
IRUPDOLVHG 0*V DQG ODUJH QXPEHUV RI (35V WKH VHFRQG REMHFWLRQ LV PRUH SUHVVLQJ WR XV
$NLQGRIVROXWLRQKDVEHHQSURSRVHGLQWKHZHOO±NQRZQ(21>@SURMHFWZKLFKXQGHUVWDQGV
0*VDVFROOHFWLRQV RI VNHOHWDO SODQV 7KH SODQV DUH LQVWDQWLDWHG DQG UHYLVHG IRU HDFK SDWLHQW¶V
YLVLW XVLQJ DGGLWLRQDO NQRZOHGJH 7KLV DSSURDFK VXSSRUWHG E\ PXOWLSOH NQRZOHGJH±EDVHG
WRROV GHYHORSHG DW 6WDQIRUG 0HGLFDO ,QIRUPDWLFV KDV SURYHQ YHU\ SRZHUIXO LQ DVVLVWLQJ WKH
SURFHVV RI JXLGHOLQH±EDVHG GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ LQ VHYHUDO PHGLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQV 7KH FORVHO\
UHODWHG $VJDDUG SURMHFW >@ DLPV WR GLVFRYHU LPSOLFLW LQWHQWLRQV RI WKH JXLGHOLQH DQG RI WKH
KHDOWKFDUH SURYLGHU DQG WR FRPSDUH WKHP DW DQ DEVWUDFW OHYHO )RU WKLV SRZHUIXO PHFKDQLVPV
$SDSHUGHDOLQJZLWKWKLVWRSLF>@KDVDOVREHHQVXEPLWWHGWRWKLVZRUNVKRS
IRU FRQFHSWXDO DV ZHOO DV WHPSRUDO DEVWUDFWLRQ KDYH EHHQ GHYLVHG $PRQJ WKH SURMHFWV XVLQJ
WKH ÄSODQ SDUDGLJP³ $VJDDUG LV SUREDEO\ WKH RQH PRVW VWULYLQJ WR HOLPLQDWH WKH SRWHQWLDO
ULJLGLW\RIWKH0*DVDSODQVWUXFWXUHYLDUHVRUWLQJWRDJRDO±RULHQWHGDQGGHFODUDWLYHYLHZ
2XU SURSRVHG VROXWLRQ GHQRWHG DV WZR±WLHUHG PRGHO >@ LV FRPSDUDEO\ OLJKW±ZHLJKWHG
DQG DV ZH KDYH SRLQWHG RXW LQ WKH SUHYLRXV VXEVHFWLRQ PRUH WDLORUHG WR WKH FRPSOLDQFH±
DQDO\VLV WDVN $OUHDG\ DW WKH OHYHO RI WKH LQIRUPDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQDO RQWRORJ\ RI 0* VHH
>@WZRJURXSVRIHOHPHQWVKDYHEHHQLGHQWLILHG
7KH ILUVW JURXS LH WKH ILUVW WLHU RI WKH PRGHO FRQWDLQV LQGHSHQGHQW SLHFHV RI
”
NQRZOHGJH JRDOV FDXVDO UHODWLRQV FRQFHSW GHILQLWLRQV DQG ILQDOO\ VFHQDULRV 7KH
VFHQDULRV DUH VLPLODU WR $UGHQ UXOHV >@ DV ZHOO DV WR WKH FRQFHSW RI VFHQDULR UHFHQWO\
SURSRVHG ZLWKLQ WKH (21 SURMHFW >@ WKH\ UHODWH D SDUWLFXODU VHW RI FRQGLWLRQV RQ
SDWLHQWVWDWHVDQGKLVWRU\RIWUHDWPHQWWRUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVLHDFWLRQVDQGRUGHFLVLRQV
WR EH LPPHGLDWHO\ SHUIRUPHG /RQJ WHUP FRQVHTXHQFHV DUH FDSWXUHG ERWK E\ WKH VHFRQG
WLHUDQGE\WKHDFWLYLWLHVWULJJHUHGE\FHUWDLQDFWLRQV
7KH VHFRQG JURXS VHFRQG WLHU RI WKH PRGHO FRQVLVWV LQ JUDSK VWUXFWXUHV OLQNLQJ WKH
”
HOHPHQWV RI WKH ILUVW JURXS LQ SDUWLFXODU WKH VFHQDULRV WRJHWKHU WR UHIOHFW WKH ORJLF RI
VWHSV FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH ORQJ±WHUP DVSHFW RI WKH JXLGHOLQH 7KHUH LV D FHUWDLQ
GXSOLFDWLRQ RI LQIRUPDWLRQ VLQFH ORQJ±WHUP VWDWHPHQWV DUH UHIOHFWHG ERWK LQ WKH VHFRQG
WLHUDQGLQWKHILUVWWLHUUHIHUHQFHVWRKLVWRU\DQGWRWULJJHUHGDFWLYLWLHVLQWKHVFHQDULRV
VSHFLDOFDUHKDVWKXVWREHWDNHQWRPDLQWDLQFRQVLVWHQF\
7KH SUDJPDWLFV RI WKLV DSSURDFK LV WR HQDEOH WKH VFHQDULRV WR EH HYHQ SDUWLDOO\ PDWFKHG
ZLWK WKH FXUUHQW VWDWH RI WKH SDWLHQW UHJDUGOHVV RI WKH VHFRQG WLHU ZKLFK ZLOO EH DSSOLHG RQO\
SRVWHULRUWRWKHSURFHVVLQJRIWKHZKROH(35LQDZD\WKLVERWWRP±XSDSSURDFKLVLQYHUVHWR
WKH ³VNHOHWDO±SODQ±UHILQHPHQW´ RSHUDWRU LQ (21 >@ ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV VKRXOG D SRUWLRQ RI
FDVHV LH (35V ³OHDN RXW´ IURP WKH ³VWDWH±WUDQVLWLRQ´ VWUXFWXUHV LPSOLFLWO\ GHVFULEHG LQ WKH
JXLGHOLQH LW GRHV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ JHW FRPSOHWHO\ EH\RQG LWV VFRSH 6HULRXV LQIULQJHPHQWV RI
WKH0*WKXVZLOOQRWJHWREVFXUHGE\PLQRUGHYLDWLRQV7KHGHVLJQRIDQDGHTXDWHPHFKDQLVP
RI SDUWLDO PDWFKLQJ GHULYHG IURP VWDWH±RI±WKH±DUW XQFHUWDLQW\ SURFHVVLQJ PHWKRGV ZLOO EH
REYLRXVO\WKHFULWLFDOSRLQWLQWKLVVFKHPH
2YHUYLHZRIWKH*XLGH;PHWKRGRORJ\
0RWLYDWLRQIRUWKH6WHS±E\±VWHS$SSURDFK
0RVW DSSURDFKHV WR JXLGHOLQH FRPSXWHULVDWLRQ DVVXPH H[WHQVLYH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH
GRPDLQH[SHUWDQGWKHNQRZOHGJHHQJLQHHUWKHIRUPDOPRGHORIWKHJXLGHOLQHEHLQJFUHDWHGLQ
D VLPLODU ZD\ DV WUDGLWLRQDO PHGLFDO NQRZOHGJH EDVHV 6XFK RQHVWHS IRUPDOLVDWLRQ SURFHVV
KRZHYHUEULOOLDQWLWVRXWSXWPD\EHUHPDLQVTXLWHWHGLRXVDQGUHTXLUHVDPL[WXUHRIH[SHUWLVH
PHGLFDO JHQHUDO NQRZOHGJH HQJLQHHULQJ DV ZHOO DV H[SHUWLVH LQ KDQGOLQJ WKH SDUWLFXODU WDUJHW
IRUPDOLVP ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH GRPLQDQW UROH RI WKH H[SHUW OHDGV WR VRPHWLPHV XQFRQWUROODEOH
DGGLWLRQ RI SHUVRQDO H[WUD±JXLGHOLQH NQRZOHGJH WR WKH PRGHO 7KLV PD\ EH GHVLUDEOH LI WKH
WDVNLVWREXLOGDSUDJPDWLFV\VWHPIRUPHGLFDOGHFLVLRQ±PDNLQJEXWLVFRPSOHWHO\PLVOHDGLQJ
7KLV PD\ RFFXU TXLWH IUHTXHQWO\ ZKHQ FRPSDULQJ WKH DFWXDO PHGLFDO SUDFWLFH LQ LWV GLYHUVLW\ ZLWK JHQHULF
JXLGHOLQHVVXFKDVWKRVHRIWKH:+2
LIWKHWDVNLVHJWRFRPSDUHWKHPHGLFDOSUDFWLFHUHIOHFWHGLQ(35VZLWKWKHVWDQGDUGVVHWE\
WKHJXLGHOLQHVVHHVHFWLRQ
%UHDNLQJ WKH IRUPDOLVDWLRQ SURFHVV GRZQ LQWR PXOWLSOH VWHSV FDQ EH KHOSIXO ERWK LQ
VHSDUDWLQJWKHGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIH[SHUWLVHUHTXLUHGLQWRUHODWLYHO\LQGHSHQGHQWEDWFKHVDVZHOO
DV LQ PDNLQJ WKH SURFHVV PRUH WUDQVSDUHQW DQG DOORZLQJ IRU HDVLHU YHULILFDWLRQ DQG FRUUHFWLRQ
RIPLVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQV.QRZOHGJHDGGHGE\WKHH[SHUWFDQEHH[SOLFLWO\SRLQWHGRXW
7KHIRUPDOLVDWLRQPHWKRGRORJ\ZHDUHFXUUHQWO\GHYHORSLQJXQGHUWKHQDPHRI*XLGH;IRU
³*XLGHOLQH IRUPDOLVDWLRQ EDVHG RQ ;0/´ FRQVLVWV RI ILYH VWHSV HDFK RI ZKLFK ZLOO EH
GHVFULEHG LQ PRUH GHWDLO 7KHLU RXWSXWV DUH LQ WXUQ D ZHOOVWUXFWXUHG ;+70/ GRFXPHQW D
GRFXPHQW ZLWK ORZJUDLQ VHPDQWLF WDJJLQJ */0/±6 ODQJXDJH D GRFXPHQW ZLWK ULFK
VHPDQWLF WDJJLQJ */0/±5 ODQJXDJH D V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ DUUDQJHG ;0/ NQRZOHGJH EDVH
*/./ ODQJXDJH DQG ILQDOO\ WKH FRPSXWDWLRQDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ ZKLFK LV FXUUHQWO\ EDVHG RQ
2&0/ 2SHUDWLRQDO &RQFHSW 0RGHOOLQJ /DQJXDJH $OO EXW WKH ODVW DUH VWULFWO\ ;0/±EDVHG
,W VKRXOG EH QRWHG WKDW LQ SDUWLFXODU WKH ODWWHU VWHSV RI WKH PHWKRGRORJ\ DUH QRW \HW SURSHUO\
VXSSRUWHG E\ FRPSOHWH ODQJXDJH GHILQLWLRQV DQG VRIWZDUH WRROV DQG FDQ EH VXEMHFW WR IXWXUH
PRGLILFDWLRQVDQGLPSURYHPHQWV
;+70/DVLQSXWWH[WIRUPDW
6LQFH RXU PHWKRGRORJ\ LV ;0/±EDVHG D QDWXUDO FKRLFH IRU WKH LQLWLDO WH[W IRUPDW ZDV
;+70/ DQ ;0/±YDOLG DGDSWDWLRQ RI WKH ZLGHO\ XVHG +70/ +\SHU7H[W 0DUN±XS
/DQJXDJH,WVPDLQDGYDQWDJHVLQWKHFRQWH[WRI*XLGH±;DUHDVIROORZV
”
,WSURYLGHVIRUVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGIRUPDWWHGGLVSOD\ZLWKPRVWXSWRGDWHZHEEURZVHUV
OLNH RUGLQDU\ +70/ 7KH GRFXPHQWV FDQ WKXV EH VWRUHG ZLWKLQ RUGLQDU\ ZHEVLWHV HJ
WKRVHRIPHGLFDOFRQVRUWLD
”
,W FDQ EH SURFHVVHG E\ ;0/ HGLWRUV LQ D ZD\ VLPLODU WR VXEVHTXHQW ³VHPDQWLF´
ODQJXDJHV
”
”
,WFDQEHUHIHUHQFHGE\WKHVHODQJXDJHVXVLQJWKH;/LQN;3RLQWHU>@>@WHFKQRORJ\
7KHFUHDWLRQRIDQ;+70/GRFXPHQWUHTXLUHVOLWWOHH[SHUWLVHEH\RQGWKHTXLWHFRPPRQ
ZHE±SDJHGHVLJQVNLOOV
'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH LQLWLDO IRUP RI WKH JXLGHOLQH GRFXPHQW LQ TXHVWLRQ WKH ³WK´ VWHS RI WKH
IRUPDOLVDWLRQSURFHVVWKXVDPRXQWVWRHLWKHU
”
7\SHZULWLQJ WKH ;+70/ GRFXPHQW IURP VFUDWFK IRU SDSHU GRFXPHQWV ± XQOHVV 2&5
”
$GGLWLRQRI;+70/WDJVWRSODLQWH[WGRFXPHQWV
”
³&DQRQLVDWLRQ´ RI ROGHU +70/ GRFXPHQWV WKLV WDVN FDQ EH SDUWLDOO\ DXWRPDWHG XVLQJ
FDQEHDSSOLHG
VRIWZDUH WRROV VXFK DV WKH SXEOLFO\ DYDLODEOH +70/7LG\ SURJUDP WKDW FDQ WR D FHUWDLQ
H[WHQW UHVROYH FURVVHG WDJV DQG RWKHU DPELJXLWLHV WKH UHVXOW VKRXOG KRZHYHU EH VWLOO
YHULILHGE\DKXPDQ
$PRQJ WKH WZR ;+70/ 'RFXPHQW 7\SH 'HILQLWLRQV '7'V FXUUHQWO\ SURYLGHG E\ WKH
:& :RUOG±:LGH :HE &RQVRUWLXP ZH VWLFN WR WKH '7' 7UDQVLWLRQDO ZKLFK FRQWDLQV
PRUH IRUPDWWLQJ HOHPHQWV WKDQ '7' 6WULFW WKLV OHDGLQJ WR OHVVHU ³WDJ±VWULSSLQJ´ IRU +70/±
HQFRGHGLQSXWGRFXPHQWV
6HHKWWSZZZZRUJ[KWPO
$WKWWSZZZZRUJ6WDWXVKWPO7,'<
KWWSZZZZRUJ[KWPO[KWPOWUDQVLWLRQDOGWG
7R JXDUDQWHH XQLIRUP RXWSXW IRUPDWWLQJ IRU PHGLFDO JXLGHOLQH GRFXPHQWV HQFRGHG LQ
;+70/DGHGLFDWHG&DVFDGLQJ6W\OH6KHHW&66KDVEHHQDOVRFUHDWHG
*/0/±6/DUJH±*UDLQ6HPDQWLF(OHPHQW0DUN±XS
7KH;+70/GRFXPHQWUHVXOWLQJIURP WKH SUHYLRXV VWHS LV ZHOO VWUXFWXUHG ± QRW RQO\ LQ WKH
VHQVH RI ;0/ YDOLGDWLRQ EXW DOVR LQ WKH FRPPRQ VHQVH RI IRUPDO GRFXPHQW VWUXFWXULQJ ,W
KRZHYHU W\SLFDOO\ FRQWDLQV SDUWV WKDW DUH QRW OLNHO\ WR EH H[SORLWHG LQ WKH RSHUDWLRQDO FRGH
VXFKDVUHVXOWVRIFOLQLFDOVWXGLHVJLYLQJHPSLULFDOVXSSRUWWRLPSRUWDQWDVVHUWLRQVRUHYHQDG
KRF LOOXVWUDWLRQV :H DVVXPH WKDW LI WKH ILUVW DGGLWLRQ RI VHPDQWLF LQIRUPDWLRQ LQWR WKH
JXLGHOLQHGRFXPHQWLVFDUHIXOHQRXJKLWFDQEHGRQHHYHQE\SHUVRQVZLWKRXWGHHSPHGLFDO
H[SHUWLVH5HDOPHGLFDOH[SHUWVFDQWKXVEHUHOLHYHGRIVFUXWLQLVLQJORQJGRFXPHQWVZLWKOLWWOH
WDQJLEOHHIIHFWDQGWKHLULQYROYHPHQWZLOOEHSRVWSRQHGWRODWWHUSKDVHV
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQDO RQWRORJ\ GHYHORSHG ZLWKLQ WKH 0*7 SURMHFW VHH >@
ZHGLVWLQJXLVKDPRQJIRXUW\SHVRIHOHPHQWV
”
'HILQLWLRQDOVWDWHPHQWVLHGHILQLWLRQVRIFRQFHSWVGHDOWZLWKLQWKHWH[W
”
3XUHO\ GHVFULSWLYH VWDWHPHQWV LQ WKH IRUP RI FDXVDO UHODWLRQV DPRQJ YDULRXV FOLQLFDO
”
,QWHQWLRQDO VWDWHPHQWV LH JRDOV WR EH DFKLHYHG RU VWDWHV WR EH PDLQWDLQHG DYRLGHG
SDUDPHWHUVHYHQWVHWF
6RPH DUH UHODWHG WR WKH JXLGHOLQH ±EDVHG WUHDWPHQW DV D ZKROH VRPH WR SDUWLFXODU
DFWLRQVRUDFWLYLWLHVZLWKLQ
”
3URFHGXUDOVWDWHPHQWVZKDWVKRXOGEHGRQH XQGHU ZKDW FRQGLWLRQV ³VFHQDULRV´ 6LQFH
WKH\ DUH WKH HVVHQWLDO ³NQRZOHGJH IXHO´ IRU JXLGHOLQH±SURFHVVLQJ VRIWZDUH WKH\ KDYH WR
EHWUHDWHGZLWKSDUWLFXODUDWWHQWLRQ
,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHERXQGDU\EHWZHHQ WKH HOHPHQW W\SHV LV QRW DOZD\V FOHDU FRQFHSW
GHILQLWLRQV FDQ KDYH SURFHGXUDO DVSHFWV VRPH FDXVDO UHODWLRQV DQG SURFHGXUDO VWDWHPHQWV FDQ
EH WKHPVHOYHV XQGHUVWRRG DV FRQFHSWV HWF 7KHVH SUREOHPV KDYH KRZHYHU OLWWOH WR GR ZLWK
PHGLFDO H[SHUWLVH DQG VKRXOG EH V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ VROYHG ZLWKLQ WKH NQRZOHGJH±HQJLQHHULQJ
HQGHDYRXU
)RUWKLV³FUXGH´VHPDQWLFDQQRWDWLRQZHKDYHGHYHORSHGDQ;0/±EDVHGPDUN±XSODQJXDJH
QDPHG */0/±6 *XLGHOLQH 0DUN±XS /DQJXDJH ± 6LPSOH ,WV '7' GHILQHV ILYH WRS±OHYHO
HOHPHQWVJRDOFDXVDOUHOFRQFHSWGHISURFHGXUDODQGRWKHU 3LHFHV RI WH[W
FRQIRUPLQJ WR DQ\ RI WKH RQWRORJLFDO QRWLRQV DUH HQFORVHG LQ WKH UHVSHFWLYH WDJV DQG LQVHUWHG
LQWR WKH */0/±6 GRFXPHQW ZKLOH WKH UHVW RI WKH WH[W LV OHIW RXW 0LQRU UHIRUPXODWLRQ LV
VRPHWLPHV QHHGHG LQ RUGHU WR SLFN XS UHOHYDQW SKUDVHV FRQVLVWHQWO\ RXW RI D FRPSOH[
VHQWHQFH $W )LJ \RX FDQ VHH KRZ WZR LQVWDQFHV RI EDVLF */0/±6 HOHPHQWV DUH H[WUDFWHG
IURPDVLQJOHSDUDJUDSKRIWKH;+70/GRFXPHQW
7KHRWKHUHOHPHQWLVGHVWLQHGWRFRYHUSLHFHVRIWH[WWKDWFDQEHSRWHQWLDOO\IRUPDOLVHGDQG
SURFHVVHGE\FRPSXWHUEXWGRQRWFRQIRUPWRWKHFXUUHQWO\XVHGJXLGHOLQHPRGHO,QWKHSLORW
DSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\ZHKDYHFRPHDFURVVWZRVLWXDWLRQVRIWKLVNLQG
”
WKHVWDWHPHQWGRHVQRWFRQFHSWXDOO\FRQIRUPWRDQ\RIWKHSUHGHILQHGQRWLRQVHJPHWD±
VWDWHPHQWVDERXWWKHJXLGHOLQHLWVHOI
”
WKH VWDWHPHQW LV FRQFHSWXDOO\ UHODWHG WR VRPH RI WKH QRWLRQV EXW DW D GLIIHUHQW OHYHO RI
JUDQXODULW\ HJ GHWDLOHG LQVWUXFWLRQV KRZ WR SHUIRUP SURFHGXUHV DQG PHDVXUHPHQWV
ZKLFKWKRXJKEHLQJ³SURFHGXUDOVWDWHPHQWV´FDQQRWEHKDQGOHGLQDPRGHOZLWKYLVLWDV
WKHVPDOOHVWWLPHXQLW
,QWKLVGUDIWYHUVLRQRIWKHSDSHUILJXUHVDUHLQVHUWHGDIWHUWKHPDLQWH[W
7KHHIIHFWRIXVLQJRWKHULQVWHDGRIOHDYLQJVXFKWH[WRXWLVWRPLQLPLVHWKHWH[W±DQDO\VLV
HIIRUW LQFXUUHG E\ VXEPLWWLQJ WKH VDPH JXLGHOLQH GRFXPHQW LQWR D GLIIHUHQW RU HQULFKHG
PRGHO6RPHQHZHOHPHQWVFRXOGWKHQEHH[WUDFWHG GLUHFWO\ IURP */0/±6 ZLWKRXW UHFRXUVH
WRWKHIXOOWH[W
)RU DOO EDVLF HOHPHQWV WKH ;3RLQWHU ODQJXDJH >@ HPEHGGHG LQ ;/LQN >@ UHIHUHQFHV LV XVHG
WRLQGLFDWHWKHORFDWLRQRIWKHRULJLQDOWH[WVHHDJDLQ)LJ+HUHWKHORFDWLRQLVGHILQHGDV
³WKH ILIWK SDUDJUDSK IROORZLQJ WKH HOHPHQW D VHFRQG±OHYHO KHDGLQJ ZLWK DWWULEXWH LG VHW WR
FKS´ 6LQFH WKH VHFWLRQLQJ LV GRQH ZLWK KHDGHU HOHPHQWV LQ WKH ;+70/ ILOH WKH SDUDJUDSKV
ZLWKLQDFKDSWHUDUHFRXQWHGIURPWKHKHDGLQJ RQ QDWXUDOO\ WKH SDUDJUDSKV FRXOG KDYH ODEHOV
DVZHOO
,Q DGGLWLRQ WR FRQFHSW GHILQLWLRQV */0/±6 LQFOXGHV DOVR FRQFHSW UHIHUHQFHV DQ\ SLHFH RI
WH[W ZLWKLQ EDVLF HOHPHQWV FDQ EH PDUNHG ZLWK WKH FRQ WDJ WR LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH WH[W PD\ UHIHU
WR D FRQFHSW $W WKLV VWDJH QRW DOO FRQFHSWV UHIHUUHG WR KDYH DOVR WR EH GHILQHG WKH UHIHUHQFH
LVLQSULQFLSOHEDVHGRQWKHHPEHGGHGWH[WDQGWKHLQFOXVLRQRIDQDWWULEXWHSRLQWLQJGLUHFWO\
DWWKH,'RIWKHFRQFHSWGHILQLWLRQLVPHUHO\RSWLRQDO
,Q RXU H[SHULPHQWV ZLWK WKH :+2,6+ +\SHUWHQVLRQ *XLGHOLQHV >@ WKH ILUVW
FRQYHUVLRQVWHS;+70/WR*/0/±6KDVVKUXQNWKHRULJLQDOGRFXPHQWWROHVVWKDQRI
WKH VL]H :H DVVXPH WKDW WKLV LV FKDUDFWHULVWLF IRU ORQJ±WHUP SDWLHQW PDQDJHPHQW JXLGHOLQHV
FI >@ VLQFH ORQJ±WHUP HIIHFWV RI WUHDWPHQW DUH OHVV REYLRXV DQG KDYH WR EH GRFXPHQWHG
ZLWK DGGLWLRQDO HVS VWDWLVWLFDO PDWHULDO 6LQFH ZH GR QRW KDYH WR SHUVXDGH WKH FRPSXWHU WR
WUXVW WKH JXLGHOLQHV ZLWK WKH KHOS RI VWDWLVWLFDO ILJXUHV WKHVH SDUWV RI WKH WH[W FDQ EH VDIHO\
RPLWWHG
*/0/±5%UHDNLQJWKH(OHPHQWV)XUWKHU'RZQ
$V VRRQ DV ZH KDYH LGHQWLILHG WKH NH\ HOHPHQWV LQ WKH WH[W WKDQNV WR */0/±6 ZH FDQ
SURFHHG WR WKHLU IXUWKHU HODERUDWLRQ %DVLF HOHPHQWV DUH UHILQHG WR VXE±HOHPHQWV HJ WKH
FDXVDOUHO HOHPHQW LV UHILQHG WR VXE±HOHPHQWV VSHFLI\LQJ WKH FDXVH DQG WKH HIIHFW DQG
RSWLRQDOO\WKHFRQWH[WFRQGLWLRQVRIYDOLGLW\DQGWLPHVSHFLILFDWLRQHJGHOD\RIHIIHFW7KH
UHVSHFWLYHGHFODUDWLRQLQWKH*/0/5'7'ORRNVDVIROORZV
(/(0(17FDXVDOUHOFRQWH[W"FDXVHHIIHFWWLPH"!
7KHFRQFHSWGHIHOHPHQWLVGHFRPSRVHGDVIROORZV
(/(0(17FRQFHSWGHIQDPHDOLDVVSHF"GHI!
7KH PRVW FRQVSLFXRXV WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ KRZHYHU RFFXUV IRU WKH SURFHGXUDO HOHPHQWV ,Q
DFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHPRGXODUDSSURDFKZHDGYRFDWHLQWKHWZR±WLHUJXLGHOLQHPRGHO>@DQG
VHFWLRQ RI WKLV SDSHU FRPSOH[ SUHVFULSWLYH VWDWHPHQWV ZLWK ORQJ±WHUP UHDFK DUH EURNHQ
GRZQ WR YLVLW±OHYHO VFHQDULRV ILUVW WLHU DQG WKHLU ORQJ±WHUP VWUHDPV DUH ILOWHUHG RXW LQWR
JUDSK VWUXFWXUHV VHFRQG WLHU 1HZ WRS±OHYHO HOHPHQWV DUH WKXV LQWURGXFHG LQWR WKH ;0/
UHSUHVHQWDWLRQZKLFKUHSODFHWKHSURFHGXUDOHOHPHQWV
,PSRUWDQW FRPSRQHQWV RI PDQ\ VFHQDULRV DUH FRPSOH[ GHFLVLRQ VWUXFWXUHV 6R IDU ZH
FRQVLGHU WKH WZR WKDW DUH PRVW FRPPRQ LQ WKH PHGLFDO HQYLURQPHQW GHFLVLRQ JUDSKV DQG
KHXULVWLF FKRLFH )RU WKH IRUPHU ZH SDUWLDOO\ UHXVH WKH H[LVWLQJ GHILQLWLRQ RI GHFLVLRQ WUHH
HPEHGGHG LQ WKH 3UHGLFWLYH 0RGHO 0DUN±XS /DQJXDJH 300/ >@ )URP WKLV ODQJXDJH ZH
DOVRERUURZWKHQRWLRQRI'DWD'LFWLRQDU\WKDWOLVWVDOOYDULDEOHVDQGWKHLUYDOXHVUHTXLUHGIRU
GHFLVLRQV 2XU 'DWD 'LFWLRQDU\ DV SDUW RI WKH */0/±5 GRFXPHQW VHUYHV DV RQH RI WKH
VWDUWLQJSRLQWVIRULQWHUIDFLQJWR(35VWRUHGLQDGDWDEDVH6LQFH300/LVKHDGLQJWREHFRPH
WKHZRUOG±ZLGHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQDOVWDQGDUGIRULQWHUFKDQJHRIGDWD±PLQLQJUHVXOWVRXUDGRSWLRQ
RI300/±FRPSDWLEOHPDUN±XSVHHPVWREHIDYRXUDEOHIRURXUIXWXUHHIIRUWVRI(35PLQLQJ
$ IUDJPHQW RI WKH :+2 K\SHUWHQVLRQ JXLGHOLQHV H[SUHVVHG LQ */0/±5 LV VKRZQ DW
)LJ
7KH ILUVW SDUW RI WKH FRGH VKRZV WKUHH FRQFHSW GHILQLWLRQV WZR GHILQLWLRQV RI WKH FRQFHSW RI
³K\SHUWHQVLRQ´ DQG WKH UHILQHG GHILQLWLRQ RI WKH ³LVRODWHG RIILFH K\SHUWHQVLRQ´ FRQFHSW ZH
KDYH DOUHDG\ VHHQ IRU */0/±6 2EYLRXVO\ WKH WZR GHILQLWLRQV RI ³K\SHUWHQVLRQ´ DUH GXH WR
WKH SRO\VHP\ RI WKH WHUP LQFUHDVHG YDOXH RI EORRG SUHVVXUH REWDLQHG ZLWKLQ D PHDVXUHPHQW
YVSHUVLVWHQWGLDJQRVLVWKDWFDQEHDVVLJQHGWRDSDWLHQW
7KH VHFRQG SDUW VKRZV WKH FRPSOH[ VWUXFWXUH RI D JRDO WKH FRPSOH[LW\ LV SDUWO\ GXH WR WKH
OLPLWHG RQWRORJLFDO H[SUHVVLYHQHVV RI '7'V VHH HJ >@ IRU DQ DQDO\VLV RI ;0/ DV D
NQRZOHGJH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ ODQJXDJH 7KH JRDO UHODWHV WKH LQWHQWLRQ VWDWH WR EH UHDFKHG
³VHFRQGDU\ FDXVHV RI K\SHUWHQVLRQ GLDJQRVLV KDYH EHHQ HLWKHU H[FOXGHG RU LGHQWLILHG´ WR D
SDUWLFXODUDFWLRQ³FOLQLFDQGODERUDWRU\HYDOXDWLRQ´
7KH ODVW SDUW VKRZV D UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH VFHQDULR RI KDQGOLQJ WKH SUREOHP RI ³LVRODWHG RIILFH
K\SHUWHQVLRQ´ 7KH VROXWLRQ LV WR VWDUW WKH ORQJ±WHUP DFWLYLW\ RI DPEXODWRU\ %3 PRQLWRULQJ
WKHVWDUWLWVHOILVYLHZHGDVRQHVKRWDFWLRQ±WKLVGLVWLQFWLRQRIDFWLRQVDFWLYLWLHVLVVLPLODUWR
WKHRQHUHFHQWO\LQWURGXFHGLQWKH(21SURMHFW>@
6LQFH WKH WUDQVLWLRQ IURP */0/±6 WR */0/±5 LV TXLWH VRSKLVWLFDWHG LW FDQ UDUHO\ EH
UHOLDEO\ DFFRPSOLVKHG ZLWKRXW SDUWLFLSDWLRQ RI D PHGLFDO H[SHUW 7KH *XLGH±; PHWKRGRORJ\
DVVXPHVWKDWWKHH[SHUWLQVSHFWVWKHSURSRVHG*/0/±5VWUXFWXUHVLQLQWHUDFWLRQERWKZLWKWKH
RULJLQDO ;+70/ DQG SRVVLEO\ */0/±6 GRFXPHQW DQG ZLWK WKH NQRZOHGJH HQJLQHHU
UHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHWUDQVLWLRQ,QRUGHUWRIRFXVWKHLQVSHFWLRQWRWKHPRVWSUREOHPDWLFSDUWVRI
WKH PRGHO DOO EDVLF HOHPHQWV FDQ EH FKDUDFWHULVHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH DPRXQW RI H[WHUQDO
NQRZOHGJH DGGHG 7KH DWWULEXWH DGGHG FDQ WDNH YDOXHV QR WH[W ZLWKRXW PRGLILFDWLRQ
LQWHUS WH[W KDV EHHQ UHIRUPXODWHG XVLQJ WKH PRVW OLNHO\ OLQJXLVWLF LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ SDUWV
SDUWRIWKHWH[WKDVEHHQDGGHGRUZKROHWKHZKROHHOHPHQWKDVEHHQDGGHG
7KH HOHPHQWV RI */0/±5 UHIHU YLD ;3RLQWHU;/LQN UHIHUHQFHV WR WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ
HOHPHQWV LQ */0/±6 7KLV LV QHDUO\ VXSHUIOXRXV IRU HOHPHQWV ZLWK RQH±WR±RQH PDSSLQJ EXW
LV LPSRUWDQW IRU */0/±5 VFHQDULRV VHYHUDO RI ZKLFK FDQ EH H[WUDFWHG IURP D VLQJOH
³SURFHGXUDO´HOHPHQWLQ*/0/±6
*/./6\VWHPDWLF5HRUGHULQJDQG1RUPDOLVDWLRQ
7KH QH[W VWHS LV UHODWLYHO\ PLQRU IURP WKH VHPDQWLF YLHZSRLQW EXW LPSRUWDQW IURP WKH
FRQFHSWXDOYLHZSRLQW:KLOHERWK*/0/ODQJXDJHVDUHDWOHDVWWRDFHUWDLQH[WHQWGRFXPHQW
PDUNXS±ODQJXDJHV LQ WKH VHQVH RI WDJJLQJ WH[WXDO IUDJPHQWV LQ D GRFXPHQW WKRXJK WKURZLQJ
SDUWV RI LW DZD\« WKH WUDQVLWLRQ WR WKH *XLGHOLQH .QRZOHGJH /DQJXDJH */./ FRPSOHWHO\
DEDQGRQVWKHGRFXPHQWVWUXFWXUHLQIDYRXURIV\VWHPDWLFRUGHULQJRINQRZOHGJH7KLVSURFHVV
LV OLNHO\ WR EH GRQH PRUH±RU±OHVV DXWRPDWLFDOO\ LQ WKH IXWXUH ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR UHRUGHULQJ
UHIHUHQFHVZLOOEHYHULILHGXSGDWHGLIQHFHVVDU\DQGDPELJXLWLHVUHVROYHG
7KH VWUXFWXUH RI */./ '7' ZLOO EH ODUJHO\ EDVHG RQ WKH */0/±5 '7' LW KDV QRW EHHQ
FRPSOHWHG\HW
)RUEUHYLW\ZHKDYHLQFOXGHGRQO\ORFDOSRLQWHUV WKH LGHQWLW\ RI WKH VRXUFH GRFXPHQW FDQ EH GHFODUHG LQ WKH
KHDGHURIWKH*/0/±5GRFXPHQW
)URP*/./WR2SHUDWLRQDO&RGH
7KHODVWVWHSRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\FRQVLVWVRIWZRSDUWV
)LUVWWKH*/./NQRZOHGJHEDVHZLOOEHV\QWDFWLFDOO\FRQYHUWHGIURPWKH;0/IRUPDWWRWKH
IRUPDW RI WKH 2&0/ FRQFHSWXDO PRGHOOLQJ ODQJXDJH >@ DQG UHIHUHQFHV WR */./ HOHPHQWV
ZLOOEHHQFDSVXODWHGLQVSHFLILFVORWVRI2&0/FODVVHV 7KLV FDQ EH GRQH IXOO\ DXWRPDWLFDOO\
ZHDUHFXUUHQWO\WHVWLQJZKHWKHUWKHGHFODUDWLYHDSSDUDWXVRI;6/VW\OHVKHHWVLVVXIILFLHQWIRU
WKLVSXUSRVHZLWKRXWWKHQHHGRIGHYHORSLQJGHGLFDWHGVRIWZDUH
6HFRQG PDQ\ VXE±HOHPHQWV RI WKH */./ FRGH QRZ FRQYHUWHG WR DUJXPHQWV RI 2&0/
UHODWLRQV VWLOO FRQWDLQ QDWXUDO ODQJXDJH WH[W ZKLFK KDV WR EH LQWHUSUHWHG DQG RSHUDWLRQDOLVHG
E\DNQRZOHGJHHQJLQHHUZLWKUHVSHFWWRDYDLODEOHGDWDEDVH(OHFWURQLF3DWLHQW5HFRUGLWHPV
DQGSRVVLEO\DJDLQZLWKWKHDVVLVWDQFHRIDPHGLFDOH[SHUW
*UDSKLFDO6XPPDU\RIWKH3URFHVV
7KH VWHSZLVH SURFHVV RI JXLGHOLQH RSHUDWLRQDOLVDWLRQ LV GHSLFWHG DW )LJ (DFK RI WKH
IRUPDWVLVFRQQHFWHGWRLWVGHILQLWLRQVSUH±H[LVWLQJRQHVLQWKHXSSHUSDUWQHZO\FUHDWHGRQHV
LQ WKH ORZHU SDUW HDFK RI WKH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ VWHSV LV FRQQHFWHG WR WKH V\PEROLF ILJXUHV RI
SHUVRQV LQYROYHG PHGLFDO H[SHUW NQRZOHGJH HQJLQHHU GRFXPHQW GHVLJQHU 3URFHVVHV DQG
GHILQLWLRQVWKDWDUHVWLOOVXEMHFWRILQWHQVLYHUHVHDUFKDUHGLVWLQJXLVKHGE\GDVKHGOLQHV
5HODWHG:RUNRQ0HGLFDO*XLGHOLQH0DUN±XS
6LQFH ZH KDYH EULHIO\ UHYLHZHG WKH VWDWH±RI±WKH±DUW LQ FRPSXWHULVHG 0* SURFHVVLQJ ZLWK
HPSKDVLV RQ WKH ³PRGXODUVWUXFWXUDO´ LVVXH DOUHDG\ LQ VHFWLRQ ZH ZLOO QRZ OLPLW
RXUVHOYHVWRSURMHFWVDQGPHWKRGVUHO\LQJRQ0*GRFXPHQWDQGGDWDPDUN±XS
7KH³DUW´RIPDSSLQJIUDJPHQWVRIIUHHWH[WWRIRUPDONQRZOHGJHHOHPHQWVRULJLQDOO\IRUWKH
SXUSRVH RI VHVVLRQ WUDQVFULSW DQDO\VLV KDV D ORQJ WUDGLWLRQ LQ NQRZOHGJH DFTXLVLWLRQ DQG KDV
EHHQ PRUH UHFHQWO\ ³UH±GLVFRYHUHG´ LQ NQRZOHGJH PDQDJHPHQW WR FDSWXUH FRUSRUDWH
NQRZOHGJH HQFDSVXODWHG LQ GRFXPHQWV ,Q WKH 3DW0DQ 3DWLHQW :RUNIORZ 0DQDJHPHQW
SURMHFW >@ PDSSLQJ LV FUHDWHG EHWZHHQ PHGLFDO GRPDLQ RQWRORJLHV DQG WKH JXLGHOLQH WH[W
8QOLNH RXU SURMHFW WKH DSSURDFK LV PDLQO\ WRS±GRZQ LH IRUPDO NQRZOHGJH HOHPHQWV DUH
SRSXODWHGZLWKDSSURSULDWHIUDJPHQWVIRXQGLQWKHWH[W,QRXURSLQLRQWKLVLVQRWVXLWDEOHIRU
H[WUDFWLRQRIDOODYDLODEOHNQRZOHGJHIURPWH[W,WVKRXOGEHKRZHYHUQRWHGWKDWWKHDLPRIWKH
PDSSLQJLVWRYHULI\WKHSUHVHQFHRIRQWRORJLFDOFRQFHSWVLQWKHWH[WUDWKHUWKDQWRFRQYHUWWKH
WH[WXDOLQIRUPDWLRQLQWRDNQRZOHGJHPRGHOVHH>@
;0/ EHFRPLQJ D ZRUOG±ZLGH VWDQGDUG DOVR DSSHDUV PRUH DQG PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ DV GDWD
IRUPDW 7KH *XLGHOLQH ,QWHUFKDQJH )RUPDW */,) >@ GHYHORSHG ZLWKLQ WKH ,QWHU0HG
FROODERUDWLYH SURMHFW RI IRXU $PHULFDQ XQLYHUVLWLHV XVHV WKH ;0/ IRUPDW DV DQ DOWHUQDWLYH WR
WKH RULJLQDO 2',) IRUPDW $OVR WKH DERYH PHQWLRQHG 3DW0DQ SURMHFW GHFODUHV WR DGRSW ;0/
LQ WKH PRGHOOLQJ SURFHVV LQ WKH IXWXUH >@ ,Q RXU SURMHFW ZH XVH ;0/ QRW RQO\ DV D GDWD
UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LQWHUFKDQJH IRUPDW EXW DWWHPSW WR XVH V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ RWKHU IHDWXUHV RI
;0/±GRFXPHQWWDJJLQJOLQNLQJDVZHOODVVW\OHGRXWSXW
7KH IDFW WKDW 3DW0DQ XVHV 2&0/ >@ DV WKH WDUJHW PRGHOOLQJ ODQJXDJH LV DQRWKHU FRPPRQ SRLQW ZLWK WKH
0*7SURMHFW
&RQFOXVLRQVDQG)XWXUH:RUN
,QWKHSDSHUZHKDYHGHVFULEHGDPHWKRGRORJ\IRUFRQYHUWLQJPHGLFDOJXLGHOLQHGRFXPHQWV
IURP WH[WXDO IRUP LQWR D IRUPDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ LQ VHYHUDO UHODWLYHO\ LQGHSHQGHQW VWHSV 7KH
PDLQ DGYDQWDJH RI WKH VWHS±E\±VWHS DSSURDFK LV EHWWHU FRQWURO RYHU WKH FRQYHUVLRQ SURFHVV
DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI H[SHUWLVH UHTXLUHG LQ HDFK VWHS 7KH ERWWRP±XS WH[W±IRFXVHG UDWKHU WKDQ
H[SHUW±IRFXVHG SURFHVV VKRXOG UHQGHU WKH WDUJHW UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH JXLGHOLQH WR D IRUP
IDYRXUDEOH IRU WKH DQDO\VLV RI FRPSOLDQFH WDVN ZKLFK ZRXOG EH GLIILFXOW WR DFKLHYH E\ RWKHU
VWDWH±RI±WKH±DUW DSSURDFKHV 7KH NH\ WHFKQRORJ\ LQ WKH FRQYHUVLRQ SURFHVV LV ;0/ EDVHG
ODQJXDJHV
7KHPHWKRGRORJ\LVVRIDUVXSSRUWHGRQO\E\GHFODUDWLYHWRROV±'RFXPHQW7\SH'HILQLWLRQV
'7'V DQG VW\OHV $OWKRXJK JHQHUDO ;0/ HGLWRUV DUH ZHOO VXLWDEOH IRU WKH NQRZOHGJH±
HQJLQHHULQJ SDUW RI JXLGHOLQH±HQFRGLQJ WKH\ DUH QRW VXLWDEOH IRU PHGLFDO H[SHUWV )XUWKHU
ZRUNVKRXOGWKXVLQFOXGHWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIGHGLFDWHGLQWHUIDFHV IRU FUHDWLRQ DQG LQVSHFWLRQ
RI DQQRWDWHG GRFXPHQWV ,PSURYHG XVH RI WKH PHWKRGRORJ\ E\ PHGLFDO H[SHUWV ZLOO WKHQ
SURYLGHV\VWHPDWLFIHHGEDFNIRUIXUWKHULPSURYHPHQWVRIWKHIRUPDOLVPV
$OWKRXJK ZH DUH FXUUHQWO\ XVLQJ '7'V IRU GHVFULELQJ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI RQWRORJLFDO
NQRZOHGJH HOHPHQWV LQ WH[W ZH DUH DZDUH RI WKHLU OLPLWDWLRQV ,Q SDUWLFXODU H[SUHVVLQJ LV±D
KLHUDUFKLHVRUUROHVZLWK'7'VLVSRVVLEOHRQO\DWWKHFRVWRIDGGLWLRQDOHOHPHQWHPEHGGLQJ
:H DUH FRQVLGHULQJ WKH XVH RI WKH PRUH SRZHUIXO ;0/ 6FKHPDWD ZKLFK DUH QRW VR ZHOO
VXSSRUWHGDWWKHPRPHQWEXWZLOOSUREDEO\H[SDQGLQWKHIXWXUH
7KH ZRUN RQ ;0/ PDUN±XS ZLOO DOVR FRQYHUJH ZLWK WKH ZRUN RQ GDWDEDVH (35 LQWHUIDFH
DQG RQ WKH 2&0/ OLEUDU\ RI PHGLFDO JXLGHOLQH FRQFHSWV >@ ZLWKLQ WKH 0*7 SURMHFW 7KH
PHWKRGRORJ\ VKRXOG LQFRUSRUDWH WKH NQRZ±KRZ RI PDWFKLQJ WKH FRQFHSWV UHIHUHQFHGGHILQHG
LQWKHWH[WZLWKOLEUDU\FRQFHSWVDQGILHOGVLQWKHVWUXFWXUHG(35
7KH ZRUN RQ WKLV SDSHU KDV EHHQ SDUWLDOO\ VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH 0*7 0HGLFDO *XLGHOLQHV
7HFKQRORJ\3URMHFW1R,&7&7RIWKHWK)UDPHZRUN3URJUDPRIWKH(& E\ WKH
JUDQWQR'.QRZOHGJHPRGHOFRQVWUXFWLRQLQFRQQHFWLRQZLWK WH[W GRFXPHQWV RI
WKH *UDQW $JHQF\ RI WKH &]HFK 5HSXEOLF DQG E\ WKH JUDQW QR96 /DERUDWRU\ RI
,QWHOOLJHQW6\VWHPVRIWKH&]HFK0LQLVWU\RI(GXFDWLRQ
7KH DXWKRUV ZRXOG OLNH WR H[SUHVV WKHLU WKDQNV WR WKHLU FROOHDJXHV IURP WKH 0*7 SURMHFW ±
5-LURXãHN $
tKD 7=tND DQG -=YiURYi IRU WKH IHHGEDFN RQ LGHDV H[SUHVVHG LQ WKLV SDSHU
DVZHOODVWR-.RVHNIRUKLVDVVLVWDQFHLQJHWWLQJDFTXDLQWHGZLWKWKHLQWULFDFLHVRI;0/
5HIHUHQFHV
>@
+&3DW0DQ)LQDO5HSRUWKWWSDLPXQLSYLWSURMHFWVSDWPDQ([HF6XP9SGI
>@
300/3UHGLFWLYH0RGHO0DUNXS/DQJXDJH2QOLQHDW
>@
:+2,6+ +\SHUWHQVLRQ *XLGHOLQHV IRU WKH 0DQDJHPHQW RI +\SHUWHQVLRQ -RXUQDO RI +\SHUWHQVLRQ >@
&ODUN-;6/7UDQVIRUPDWLRQV;6/79HUVLRQ:&KWWSZZZZRUJ75[VOW
>@
GH &OHUFT 3 $ %ORP -$ +DVPDQ $ .RUVWHQ ++0 7DVN±6SHFLILF 0RGHOV IRU WKH $FTXLVLWLRQ DQG
KWWSZZZGPJRUJKWPOSPPOBYBKWPO
([HFXWLRQRI&OLQLFDO*XLGHOLQHVLQ+LJK±'HSHQGHQF\(QYLURQPHQWV6XEPLWWHGWR0HGLFDO,QIRUPDWLFV
>@
'D]]L / )DVVLQR & 6DUDFFR 5 4XDJOLQL 6 6WHIDQHOOL 0 $ 3DWLHQW :RUNIORZ 0DQDJHPHQW 6\VWHP
%XLOWRQ*XLGHOLQHV3URFHHGLQJVRI$0,$¶1DVKYLOOH±
>@
'H5RVH 6 0DOHU ( 2UFKDUG ' 7UDIIRUG % ;0/ /LQNLQJ /DQJXDJH ;/LQN :& :RUNLQJ 'UDIW
:&KWWSZZZZRUJ75[OLQN
$W\SLFDOH[DPSOHZDVWKHJRDODW)LJ
>@
'H5RVH 6 'DQLHO 5 0DOHU ( ;0/ 3RLQWHU /DQJXDJH ;3RLQWHU :& :RUNLQJ 'UDIW :& >@
)LHOG 0 - /RKU . 1 HGV *XLGHOLQHV IRU &OLQLFDO 3UDFWLFH )URP 'HYHORSPHQW WR 8VH :DVKLQJWRQ
KWWSZZZZRUJ75[SWU
'&1DWLRQDO$FDGHP\3UHVV
>@ )ULGVPD'%*HQQDUL-+0XVHQ0$0DNLQJ*HQHULF*XLGHOLQHV6LWH±6SHFLILF,Q3URF$0,$
$QQXDO)DOO6\PS&LPLQR--HG±
>@ YDQ +DUPHOHQ ) )HQVHO ' 3UDFWLFDO .QRZOHGJH 5HSUHVHQWDWLRQ IRU WKH :HE ,Q 3URF ,-&$,
:RUNVKRSRQ,QWHOOLJHQW,QIRUPDWLRQ,QWHJUDWLRQ
>@ +ULSFVDN*5DWLRQDOHIRUWKH$UGHQ6\QWD[&RPSXW%LRPHG5HV±
>@ -LURXãHN 5 .XVKPHULFN 1 &RQVWUXFWLQJ SUREDELOLVWLF PRGHOV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI 0HGLFDO
,QIRUPDWLFV9RO1RVSS±
>@ .DUS 3 ' &KDXGKUL 9 . 7KRPHUH - ;2/ $Q ;0/%DVHG 2QWRORJ\ ([FKDQJH /DQJXDJH ,Q %LR
2QWRORJLHV
0HHWLQJIWSVPLVWDQIRUGHGXSXEELRRQWRORJ\
>@ 0RWWD ( 5HXVDEOH &RPSRQHQWV IRU .QRZOHGJH 0RGHOOLQJ 3ULQFLSOHV DQG &DVH 6WXGLHV LQ 3DUDPHWULF
'HVLJQ,263UHVV$PVWHUGDP
>@ 0RWWD ( %XFNLQJKDP6KXP 6 'RPLQJXH - 2QWRORJ\'ULYHQ 'RFXPHQW (QULFKPHQW 3ULQFLSOHV DQG
&DVH6WXGLHV,Q3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHWK:RUNVKRSRQ.QRZOHGJH$FTXLVLWLRQ0RGHOLQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW
.$:
%DQII&DQDGD
>@ 0XVHQ 0$ 7X 6: 'DV $. 6KDKDU < (21 $ &RPSRQHQW±%DVHG $SSURDFK WR $XWRPDWLRQ RI
3URWRFRO±'LUHFWHG7KHUDS\-$0,$±
>@ 2KQR0DFKDGR/*HQQDUL-+0XUSK\6-DLQ1/7X6:2OLYHU'(3DWWLVRQ*RUGRQ(*UHHQHV
5$ 6KRUWOLIIH (+ %DUQHWW *2 7KH *XLGH/LQH ,QWHUFKDQJH )RUPDW $ 0RGHO IRU 5HSUHVHQWLQJ
*XLGHOLQHV-RXUQDORIWKH$PHULFDO0HGLFDO,QIRUPDWLFV$VVRFLDWLRQ
>@ 3LHULN )+ YDQ *LQQHNHQ $0 7LPPHUV 7 6WDP + :HEHU 5) 5HVWUXFWXULQJ 5RXWLQHO\ &ROOHFWHG
3DWLHQW'DWD25&$$SSOLHGWR$QGURORJ\0HWKRGV,QI0HG±
>@
tKD $ =tND 7 =YiURYi - =GUiKDO = 2SHUDWLRQDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI K\SHUWHQVLRQ JXLGHOLQHV 6XEPLWWHG
WR(:*/3²7KH)LUVW(XURSHDQ:RUNVKRSRQ&RPSXWHU±EDVHG6XSSRUWIRU&OLQLFDO*XLGHOLQHVDQG
3URWRFROV/HLS]LJ
>@ 6KDKDU < 0LNVFK 6 -RKQVRQ 3 7KH $VJDDUG 3URMHFW $ 7DVN6SHFLILF )UDPHZRUN IRU WKH $SSOLFDWLRQ
DQG&ULWLTXLQJRI7LPH2ULHQWHG&OLQLFDO*XLGHOLQHV$UWLI,QWHOOLJHQFHLQ0HGLFLQH
>@ 6YiWHN 9
tKD $ =tND 7 =YiURYi - -LURXãHN 5 =GUiKDO = ,QIRUPDO )RUPDO DQG 2SHUDWLRQDO
0RGHOOLQJ RI 0HGLFDO *XLGHOLQHV $FFHSWHG IRU WKH )RXUWK -RLQW &RQIHUHQFH RQ .QRZOHGJH±%DVHG
6RIWZDUH(QJLQHHULQJ-&.%6(,263UHVV
>@ 6YiWHN 9 =YiURYi - -LURXãHN 5 $ 7ZR7LHUHG 0RGHO RI 0HGLFDO *XLGHOLQH $FFHSWHG DV SRVWHU IRU
0,(±0HGLFDO,QIRUPDWLFV(XURSH
>@ 7X6:0XVHQ0$$)OH[LEOH$SSURDFKWR*XLGHOLQH0RGHOLQJ7HFK5HS60,
>@ =YiURYi 3 +DQ]OtþHN DQG 9 3 LEtN $SSOLFDWLRQ RI 25&$ PXOWLPHGLD (35 LQ &]HFK KRVSLWDOV ,Q
3URFHHGLQJVRI7KLUG(XU&RQIRQ(OHFWURQLF+HDOWK&DUH5HFRUGV6DGLHO6HYLOOD
KLG
FKS!:KDWLVKLJKEORRGSUHVVXUHDQGK\SHUWHQVLRQK!
S!
,QVRPHSDWLHQWVRIILFHRUFOLQLF%3LVSHUVLVWHQWO\HOHYDWHGZKHUHDV
GD\WLPH%3RXWVLGHWKHFOLQLFHQYLURQPHQWLVQRUPDO7KHUHLVFRQWLQXLQJ
GHEDWHDVWRZKHWKHULVRODWHGRIILFHK\SHUWHQVLRQZKLWHFRDW
K\SHUWHQVLRQLVDQLQQRFHQWSKHQRPHQRQRUZKHWKHULWFDUULHVDQ
LQFUHDVHGEXUGHQRIFDUGLRYDVFXODUULVN
S!
FRQFHSWGHI
LG
FG
[OLQNKUHI
ZKRPLG[KWPO[SRLQWHULG¶FKS¶IROORZLQJS>@
[OLQNUROH
VUF!
,VRODWHGRIILFHFRQ!K\SHUWHQVLRQFRQ!ZKLWHFRDW
FRQ!K\SHUWHQVLRQFRQ!LQVRPHSDWLHQWVRIILFHRUFOLQLF
FRQ!%3FRQ!LVSHUVLVWHQWO\HOHYDWHGZKHUHDVGD\WLPHFRQ!%3FRQ!
RXWVLGHWKHFOLQLFHQYLURQPHQWLVQRUPDO
FRQFHSWGHI!
FDXVDOUHO
LG
FU
[OLQNKUHI
ZKRPLG[KWPO[SRLQWHULG¶FKS¶IROORZLQJS>@
[OLQNUROH
VUF!
7KHUHLVFRQWLQXLQJGHEDWHDVWRZKHWKHULVRODWHGRIILFH
FRQ!K\SHUWHQVLRQFRQ!ZKLWHFRDWFRQ!K\SHUWHQVLRQFRQ!LVDQ
LQQRFHQWSKHQRPHQRQRUZKHWKHULWFDUULHVDQLQFUHDVHGEXUGHQRI
FRQ!FDUGLRYDVFXODUULVNFRQ!
FDXVDOUHO!
)LJXUH7UDQVLWLRQIURP;+70/WR*/0/6
FRQFHSWGHIDGGHG
[OLQNKUHI
SDUWVLG
FG
[SRLQWHUFRQFHSWGHI>#LG
¶FG¶@[OLQNUROH
VUF!
QDPH!K\SHUWHQVLRQQDPH!
DOLDV!FKURQLFHOHYDWLRQRIFRQ!EORRGSUHVVXUHFRQ!DOLDV!
VSHFLG
GLDJ!K\SHUWHQVLRQDVGLDJQRVLVVSHF!
GHI!FRQ!K\SHUWHQVLRQ%3FRQ!REWDLQHGVHYHUDOWLPHVRQVHYHUDO
VHSDUDWHRFFDVLRQVGHI!
FRQFHSWGHI!
FRQFHSWGHIDGGHG
[OLQNKUHI
SDUWVLG
FG
[SRLQWHUFRQFHSWGHI>#LG
¶FG¶@[OLQNUROH
VUF!
QDPH!K\SHUWHQVLRQQDPH!
DOLDV!HOHYDWLRQRIFRQ!EORRGSUHVVXUHFRQ!DOLDV!
VSHFLG
YDOXH!K\SHUWHQVLRQDVUHVXOWRIFRQ!EORRGSUHVVXUH
PHDVXUHPHQWFRQ!VSHF!
GHI!FRQ!JUDGHK\SHUWHQVLRQ%3FRQ!RU
FRQ!JUDGHK\SHUWHQVLRQ%3FRQ!RU
FRQ!JUDGHK\SHUWHQVLRQ%3FRQ!GHI!
FRQFHSWGHI!
FRQFHSWGHILG
[OLQNKUHI
FG
[SRLQWHUFRQFHSWGHI>#LG
QDPH!LVRODWHGRIILFHFRQVHP
DOLDV!ZKLWHFRDWFRQVHP
GHI!FRQVHP
¶FG¶@[OLQNUROH
VUF!
YDOXH!K\SHUWHQVLRQFRQ!QDPH!
YDOXH!K\SHUWHQVLRQFRQ!DOLDV!
YDOXH!K\SHUWHQVLRQFRQ!LQWKHRIILFHFOLQLFDQG
FRQ!QRUPDOEORRGSUHVVXUHFRQ!RXWVLGHWKHRIILFHFOLQLFGHI!
FRQFHSWGHI!
JRDORYHUDOO
[OLQNKUHI
QRLG
J
[SRLQWHUJRDO>#LG
¶J¶@[OLQNUROH
VUF!
JRDORI!DFWLRQ!
GDWDFROO!FRQ!FOLQLFDQGODERUDWRU\HYDOXDWLRQFRQ!GDWDFROO!
DFWLRQ!JRDORI!
LVJRDO!VWDWH!
SDUDPHWHU!VHFRQGDU\FDXVHVRIFRQVHP
GLDJ!K\SHUWHQVLRQFRQ!
SDUDPHWHU!
YDOXH!H[FOXGHGRULGHQWLILHGYDOXH!
VWDWH!LVJRDO!
JRDO!
VFHQDULRLG
[OLQNKUHI
V
[SRLQWHUJRDO>#LG
¶S¶@[OLQNUROH
VUF!
GHVFU!VROYLQJWKHSUREOHPVSRVVLEO\UHODWHG
WRFRQ!LVRODWHGRIILFHK\SHUWHQVLRQFRQ!GHVFU!
FRQG!VWDWH!
SDUDPHWHU!FRQ!EORRGSUHVVXUHFRQ!SDUDPHWHU!
YDOXH!YDULDEOHYDOXH!
WLPH!VDPHRUGLIIHUHQWYLVLWVWLPH!
VWDWH!FRQG!
UHFRP!DFWLRQW\SH
DFWLYLW\W\SH
VWDUW!
PRQLWRULQJ!FRQ!DPEXODWRU\PRQLWRULQJRIEORRG
SUHVVXUHFRQ!DFWLYLW\!
DFWLRQ!UHFRP!
VFHQDULR!
)LJXUH)UDJPHQWVRID*/0/±5GRFXPHQW
"! #$! %& ('
)
* +-,
* +/.
* 01
)LJXUH'LDJUDPRIWKH*XLGH;PHWKRGRORJ\