TOWN OF MILTON
MILTON EDUCATION VILLAGE
BACKGROUND ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS REVIEW
Draft
MAY 4, 2012
CONTENTS
Page
1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1
1.2
1.3
2.
Employment Forecast 2011-2031
MEV Non-Residential Land Needs Assessment, 2011-2031
Location Options for Employment Area
ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF MEV NON-RESIDENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT
4.1
4.2
4.3
5.
Provincial Economic Structure
GTAH Labour Force Trends
Milton Employment Structure and Growth Trends
Milton Live/Work Ratio and Commuting Trends
Business Growth by Sector, 2007-2010
Existing and Emerging Clusters within Milton
Development Potential within MEV Employment Area
MILTON EDUCATION VILLAGE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
AND NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND NEEDS TO 2031
3.1
3.2
3.3
4.
1-1
1-1
1-1
EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS
WITHIN REGIONAL AND LOCAL CONTEXT
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
3.
Terms of Reference
Background
Report Structure
Expansion of Milton’s Employment Base
Economic Impact of Non-Residential, Non-Retail Employment
Observations
CONCLUSIONS
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
2-1
2-1
2-2
2-3
2-5
2-7
2-8
2-11
3-1
3-1
3-4
3-7
4-1
4-1
4-1
4-5
5-1
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
1. INTRODUCTION
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
1-1
1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1
Terms of Reference
The Town of Milton retained a consulting team lead by Macaulay Shiomi Howson (MSH) to
prepare a secondary plan for the Milton Education Village (MEV). As part of the Consulting
Team, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson & Associates) was asked to prepare an
economic analysis review of the Milton Education Village (MEV) as a background report to the
secondary plan process.
1.2
Background
This report assesses recent economic and employment growth trends by sector within the Town
of Milton. More specifically, it provides an economic cluster analysis for the Town and identifies
development potential within the MEV. Further, the study identifies the employment growth
within the MEV through 2031 and corresponding land need by non-residential land use
component. The study focuses primarily on the employment potential and the corresponding
land need requirements of the employment area within the MEV. The study also reviews the
potential economic benefits of the forecast non-residential development growth within the MEV.
1.3
Report Structure
The report is structured as follows:


Introduction;
Employment Structure and Cluster Analysis within Regional and Local Context;


Milton Education Village Employment Forecast and Land Needs to 2031;
Economic Benefits of Non-Residential Development;

Conclusions.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2. EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS
WITHIN REGIONAL AND LOCAL CONTEXT
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-1
2
EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE AND CLUSTERS ANALYSIS
WITHIN REGIONAL AND LOCAL CONTEXT
The following section provides an overview of historical economic and employment trends from
a provincial and Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH) perspective. This includes an
analysis of the macro economic factors which are anticipated to influence local growth trends
within Milton and the Milton Education Village (MEV). Further, this section identifies key
evolving trends within Milton’s labour force and employment base. Finally, a review of Milton’s
industry clusters is also provided and development potential for the employment area within the
MEV is identified.
2.1
Provincial Economic Structure
Over the past decade, the economic base of Ontario, as measured by GDP output, has shifted
from goods-producing industries to service-producing sectors. As illustrated in Figure 2-1,
manufacturing, a significant component of the provincial economy, has seen its share of the
GDP decline by 7.5% between 2001 and 2011. In contrast, service-based sectors such as
financial and business services have seen significant increases over the 2001 and 2011 period.
Growth in the serviced-based sectors has been driven by strong growth in domestic demand,
particularly in consumer spending.1
1
Ontario’s Long-Term Report on the Economy, Ministry of Finance, Government of Ontario, 2010.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-2
Figure 2-1
Ontario
Sector Change in Proportionate Share of GDP, 2001-2011
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
2.5%
Retail Trade
0.9%
Public Administration
0.8%
Health Care and Social Services
0.7%
Wholesale Trade
0.6%
Education
0.5%
Construction
0.5%
Inf ormation & Culture (including …
0.4%
Prof essional and Administrative Services
0.3%
Transportation and Warehousing
0.2%
Other Services
0.1%
Utilities
0.0%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
-0.1%
Primary
-0.2%
Accommodation and Food
-0.3%
Manuf acturing
-7.5%
-10.0% -8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
Change in Proportionate Share, 2001-2011
Source: Adapted from Office of Economic Policy, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
2.2
GTAH Labour Force Trends
Similar to the provincial economy as a whole, the nature of the GTAH economy is changing.
Over the past 20+ years, the composition of the GTAH-employed labour force has gradually
shifted from goods-producing sectors to service sectors. The shift in growth from goodsproducing sectors to service sectors is evident when assessing labour force growth trends by
sector. GTAH labour force in total goods-producing sectors declined at an annual average rate
of 1.3% between 2001 and 2011.1 The majority of the decline in the labour force growth rate in
the goods-producing sectors during the period is the result of significant contraction in the
manufacturing sector, which declined by 3.1% annually over the period. In comparison, the
employment labour force in total service-producing sectors increased at an annual average rate
of 2.3% over the period.2 This reflects strong average annual employment growth in public
administration (3.8%), education services (3.8%), health care and social services (3.4%),
finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (3.0%), accommodation and food services (2.4%),
business, building and support services (2.4%), professional, scientific and technical services
(2.4%) and information, culture and recreation (2.3%). Collectively, these sectors comprise a
large portion of the “knowledge-based” or “creative class” economy.
1
Derived from Statistics Canada. Table 282-0112 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS) by Watson &
Associates Economists Ltd.
2
Derived from Statistics Canada. Table 282-0112 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS) by Watson &
Associates Economists Ltd.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-3
While manufacturing will continue to represent an important sector in the GTAH economy, it is
anticipated that its share of total employment will continue to steadily decline over the next 20
years. High growth sectors in the GTAH are expected to be associated with “knowledge-based”
sectors.
Figure 2-2
GTAH
Average Annual Employed Labour Force Growth by Sector,
2001-2011
Public administration
3.8%
Educational services
3.8%
Health care and social assistance
3.4%
Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing
3.0%
Construction
2.9%
Accommodation and f ood services
2.4%
Business, building and other support services
2.4%
Prof essional, scientif ic and technical services
2.4%
Inf ormation, culture and recreation
2.3%
Transportation and warehousing
2.1%
Other services
1.7%
All Sectors
1.5%
Utilities
1.5%
Trade
0.6%
Manuf acturing -3.1%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Average Annual Growth, 2001-2011
Source: Adapted from Statistics Canada. Table 282-0112 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS) by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
2.3
Milton Employment Structure and Growth Trends
Figure 2-3 summarizes Milton’s employment structure.
The Town’s employment is
concentrated in manufacturing (21% of total employment), retail trade (12%) and wholesale
trade (10%). The Town’s base in “knowledge-based” sectors such as professional, scientific
and technical services and information and cultural industries is comparatively small.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-4
Figure 2-3
Town of Milton
Share of Total Employment by Sector, 2006
Manuf acturing
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Health care and social assistance
6.4%
Public administration
6.1%
Accommodation and f ood services
5.9%
Educational services
5.1%
Transportation and warehousing
5.1%
Other services (except public administration)
5.0%
Prof essional, scientif ic and technical services
4.9%
Arts, entertainment and recreation
4.0%
Agriculture, f orestry, f ishing and hunting
4.0%
Construction
3.5%
Administrative and support, waste management …
3.0%
Finance and insurance
1.5%
Real estate and rental and leasing
1.4%
Inf ormation and cultural industries
1.2%
Utilities
0.5%
Mining and oil and gas extraction
0.1%
Management of companies and enterprises
0.1%
0%
5%
20.7%
11.6%
10.0%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Share of Total Employment
Source: Adapted from 2006 Census Place of Work data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
As illustrated in Figure 2-4, over the 2001-2006 period, average annual employment growth was
strongest in management of companies and enterprises (11%), retail trade (10%),
administration and support, waste management and remediation services (9%). Many of the
“knowledge-based” sectors also exhibited relatively strong average annual employment growth.
This included information and cultural industries (6%), and professional, scientific and technical
services (3%).
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-5
Figure 2-4
Town of Milton
Average Annual Employment Growth by Sector, 2001-2006
Management of companies and enterprises
Retail trade
Administrative and support, waste management …
Construction
Wholesale trade
Other services (except public administration)
Inf ormation and cultural industries
Utilities
Public administration
Educational services
All Sectors
Accommodation and f ood services
Prof essional, scientif ic and technical services
Health care and social assistance
Finance and insurance
Manuf acturing
Agriculture, f orestry, f ishing and hunting
Transportation and warehousing
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Mining and oil and gas extraction -24.2%
10.8%
10.4%
9.0%
7.7%
7.5%
6.6%
5.6%
5.2%
4.8%
4.3%
4.2%
3.7%
3.4%
2.9%
2.7%
1.5%
1.5%
0.3%
-0.3%
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Average Annual Employment Growth
Source: Derived from 2001 2006 Census Place of Work data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
2.4
Milton Live/Work Ratio and Commuting Trends
Figure 2-5 illustrates the strength of the employment base in Milton relative to other
communities in Halton Region and the surrounding market area by summarizing the location of
employment relative to location of residence. Within Milton, 37% of the local employment base
is comprised of employed residents from the Town, the second lowest percentage of the
municipalities surveyed. Low live/work ratios in communities such as Milton and Caledon
indicate that they play major roles as “bedroom communities” to other employment markets in
the GTAH. In comparison, Guelph, Hamilton and Brantford exhibit high live/work ratios and are
relatively “self-contained.” From an economic perspective, a low live/work ratio indicates that
the local labour force is not well served by the opportunities available in the local employment
market.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-6
Figure 2-5
% of People who Live and Work in the Municipality
Town of Milton and Surrounding Market Area Municipalities
Employment Live/Work Ratio (2006)
80%
74%
72%
70%
60%
50%
58%
49%
43%
41%
40%
39%
37%
33%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Municipality
Source: Derived from Statistics Canada 2006 Census by Watson & AssociatesEconomists Ltd.
Figure 2-6 illustrates the live/work ratio by sector within Milton in 2006. As shown, the Town’s
live/work ratio is highest in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, accommodations and food
services, arts entertainment and recreation, retail trade and other services. The live/work ratio
is relatively low in a number of “knowledge-based” sectors, including finance and insurance,
management of companies and enterprises, information and cultural industries, education and
professional, scientific and technical services. The development of the MEV non-residential
component would help improve the live/work ratio in these sectors.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-7
Figure 2-6
Town of Milton
Employment Live/Work Ratio by Sector, 2006
Agriculture, f orestry, f ishing and hunting
Accommodation and f ood services
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Retail trade
Other services (except public administration)
Health care and social assistance
Administrative and support, waste …
Real estate and rental and leasing
Construction
Prof essional, scientif ic and technical services
Wholesale trade
Manuf acturing
Educational services
Inf ormation and cultural industries
Transportation and warehousing
Public administration
Utilities
Management of companies and enterprises
Finance and insurance
Mining and oil and gas extraction
79.8%
64.7%
56.6%
54.4%
49.3%
43.6%
40.1%
38.8%
35.1%
33.5%
31.9%
31.5%
31.0%
24.0%
22.4%
21.2%
19.4%
Town-wide Live-Work
15.4%
Ratio of 37%
12.8%
12.5%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Live/Work Ratio
80.0%
100.0%
Source: Derived from Statistics Canada 2006 Census labour force and place of work data by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
2.5
Business Growth by Sector, 2007-2010
Canadian Business Patterns data was examined to assess trends by sector in terms of
business activity since 2006. Over the 2007-2010 period, Milton experienced strong business
growth in professional, scientific and technical services, transportation and warehousing, retail
trade and other services, as shown in Figure 2-7.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-8
Figure 2-7
Town of Milton
Change in the Number of Businesses by Sector, 2007-2010
Other services (except public administration)
Prof essional, scientif ic and technical services
Transportation and warehousing
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Accommodation and f ood services
Administrative and support, waste management …
Health care and social assistance
Inf ormation and cultural industries
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Manuf acturing
Construction
Educational services
Public administration
-1
Utilities
-1
Mining and oil and gas extraction
-2
Agriculture, f orestry, f ishing and hunting
-3
Management of companies and enterprises
-4
Arts, entertainment and recreation
-8
-20
97
77
35
35
28
26
22
19
8
7
5
4
4
3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Change in Number of Businesses
Source: Derived from Canadian Business Patterns data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
2.6
Existing and Emerging Clusters within Milton
Ultimately, the aggregate indicators of Milton’s economic performance are determined in large
measure by the competitiveness of its industry clusters. A cluster is a set of inter-linked private
sector industries and public sector institutions, whose final production reaches markets outside
the local market. Thus, the cluster approach to economic development reflects in some way a
more traditional focus on the export base of a region.1 An expanding export base – or
competitive clusters – is a key component to the economic prosperity of the local economy in
the surrounding area because exports bring money into the local market to be circulated among
local-serving enterprises and their employees.
Location Quotients (LQ’s) are a commonly used tool in regional economic analysis to identify
and assess the relative strength of industry clusters. They assess the concentration of
economic activities within a smaller area relative to the overarching region in which it resides.
The LQ for a given municipality or local geographic area is calculated by dividing the percentage
of total local employment represented by a sector, with the percentage of the total broader
employment base (typically based on provincial or national levels) represented by the sector.
An LQ of 100% identifies that the concentration of employment by sector is consistent with the
broader employment base average. An LQ of greater than 100% identifies that the
concentration of employment in a given employment sector is higher than the broader base
1
Toronto Competes: An Assessment of Toronto’s Global Competitiveness. February, 2000.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-9
average, which suggests a relatively high concentration of a particular employment sector or
“cluster.” Employment sectors with a relatively high LQ generally serve both the local
population base as well as employment markets which extend beyond the boundaries of the
municipality. On the other hand, employment sectors with an LQ of less than 100% identify
particular employment sectors which have relatively lower concentrations (as compared with the
broader market average) and are generally under-servicing the needs of the local market.
Milton has a strong concentration of employment in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting,
wholesale trade, arts, entertainment and recreation, manufacturing, transportation and
warehousing and construction, as illustrated in Figure 2-8. Within the manufacturing sector,
Milton has a strong concentration in automotive, metal manufacturing, aerospace, automation
and processed foods.
Figure 2-8
Town of Milton
Location Quotients1 by Sector, 2006
Agriculture, f orestry, f ishing and hunting
Wholesale trade
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Manuf acturing
Transportation and warehousing
Construction
Other services (except public administration)
Public administration
Retail trade
Accommodation and f ood services
Administrative and support, waste management …
Management of companies and enterprises
Educational services
Utilities
Real estate and rental and leasing
Prof essional, scientif ic and technical services
Health care and social assistance
Inf ormation and cultural industries
Mining and oil and gas extraction
Finance and insurance
-
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.4
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Location Quotient
Source: Derived from 2006 Census Place of Work data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
1. Location Quotients based on relative concentration of employment compared to Province of Ontario.
Milton has demonstrated relatively strong employment growth in a number of sectors where it
has a relatively high concentration of employment, including wholesale trade and construction,
as illustrated in Figure 2-9. Further, it has experienced strong growth in information and cultural
industries and professional, scientific and technical services, sectors which have only a
moderate concentration of employment in the municipality.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-10
Figure 2-9
Town of Milton
Sector Location Quotient1 and Employment Growth Matrix
2.5
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing and hunting
Wholesale trade
2.0
Location Quotient
Arts, entertainment and
recreation
1.5
Manufacturing
Transportation and
warehousing
1.0
-1.0%
0.5
Public
administration
Other services
Construction
Accommodation and
food services
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
Administrative and
PSTS
support, waste
Utilities
Health care/social
management and
Educational
assistance
remediation services
services
Finance and insurance
Information and cultural
industries
Retail trade
11.0%
13.0%
Real estate and rental
and leasing
Management of
companies and
enterprises
0.0
Annual Employment Growth, 2001-2006
Source: Watson & Associates Economists ltd.
1. Location Quotients based on relative concentration of employment compared to Province of Ontario.
The future growth of business activity in Milton is expected to be largely tied to the growth
potential of the larger economy across the GTAH. Growth prospects in the manufacturing
sector within the GTAH have generally been weak, while industrial sectors associated with
goods movement, including wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing, have been
relatively strong. Further, service-producing sectors have been rising with a strong focus in the
“knowledge-based” economy.
The strongest opportunities for development in Milton are within the established growth clusters.
This encompasses clusters that are well established within the community and have strong
growth potential.
This includes wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing and
construction. Further, emerging growth clusters encompassing those that have strong growth
potential within the GTAH but a lower concentration currently within Milton, offer development
potential over the longer term. This encompasses a number of “knowledge-based” sectors,
including professional, scientific and technical services, management of companies and
enterprises, administrative and support, waste management and remediation services, and
information and cultural industries. As these growth sectors continue to expand in the GTAH,
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-11
they are likely to become more prominent in Milton given their historical growth rates and future
prospects across the GTAH. Further, within mature clusters such as manufacturing, there are
opportunities to build on those sectors which form an important component of the local
economic base and offer some potential growth opportunities. These include the automotive
and the processed food clusters which continue to offer good growth potential in Milton.
2.7
Development Potential within the MEV Employment Area
The Milton Education Village is anticipated to accommodate an employment area. The
employment area is envisioned to reflect a campus-style urban built form, will be complemented
by the Wilfrid Laurier University campus, a velodrome, designated commercial lands and a
residential component.
The employment area, as outlined in the Milton Education Village Research Park – Strategic
Directions Report, will be focused on green/clean technologies. Collectively, the “clean tech”
sector comprises a number of diverse industries centred around manufacturing, engineering,
research and technology, as well as utilities and power generation. The cluster includes
business activities that provide products or services focused on producing clean energy, energy
conservation or creating energy efficiencies. Potential growth sectors within the MEV
employment area by sector include:




Professional, Scientific and Technical Services:
o Architectural and engineering services;
o Environmental consulting;
o Research and Development;
Construction:
o green building construction;
o energy efficiency products;
Manufacturing:
o clean transportation;
o clean energy generation, storage and infrastructure products;
Waste Management Services:
o Recycling and waste.
Milton, through the MEV employment area and complementing university campus, is well
positioned to capitalize on new Provincial legislation designed to stimulate growth in renewable
energy use and technology such as wind, solar, biofuel, biomass and geothermal projects. The
Green Energy Act, 2009 will create new economic development opportunities geared towards
sustainable and green energy solutions.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
2-12
The MEV employment area can capitalize on the regional growth potential of “knowledgebased” sectors identified in Section 2.5 oriented to “clean tech,” by providing an environment
which is conducive to fostering their development. Through potential synergies with the Wilfrid
Laurier University campus and a highly prestige setting, the park is greatly attractive for
“knowledge-based” uses such as research and development and professional, scientific and
technical services. Further, the employment area can capitalize on Milton’s current strengths in
advanced manufacturing (e.g. automotive), construction and agriculture tailored to “clean tech.”
The employment area is anticipated to be attractive for a broad range of business types, ranging
from incubator industries to (multi)national companies.
Over the 2011-2031 period, it is envisioned that the MEV employment area and university
campus will collectively evolve to form a “clean tech” cluster. The unique role and position of
the employment area will make it among a handful of “innovation” clusters within the Province
focused on “clean tech.” The ultimate employment and land needs of the MEV employment
area are identified in Chapter 3.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
3. MILTON EDUCATION VILLAGE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
AND NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND NEEDS TO 2031
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
3.
MILTON EDUCATION VILLAGE EMPLOYMENT
FORECAST AND NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND NEEDS TO
2031
This chapter summarizes the Town-wide employment forecast and employment allocation to the
Milton Education Village (MEV) to 2031. The chapter also identifies the employment growth
within the MEV by sector and identifies the non-residential land needs to 2031, including those
required for the employment area and commercial component.
3.1
Employment Forecast, 2011-2031
Figure 3-1 summarizes the 2031 Town-wide and Milton Education Village employment forecast,
based on Halton Region’s Best Planning Estimates. As illustrated, Milton’s total employment is
expected to grow from 38,350 in 2011 to 114,330 by 2031, an increase of 75,980 over the
period. In comparison, the Milton Education Village employment is forecast to grow from 40 in
2011 to 3,659 by 2031, an increase of 3,619 over the period. Over the forecast period, the MEV
is expected to accommodate approximately 5% of Milton’s total employment growth.
Figure 3-1
Town of Milton and Education Village
Employment Forecast, 2011-2031
Year
Milton Townwide Total
Employment
Education
Village Total
Employment
20111
2031
38,350
114,330
Incremental Change
2011-2031
75,980
40
3,659
3,619
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Employment Forecast from Halton Region Best Planning
Estimates unless otherw ise noted. Employment totals include
Work at Home and No Fixed Place of Work
1. Milton 2011 employment derived from 2012 Milton DC
Background Study
3.1.1 Employment Growth within MEV, 2011-2031
A number of non-residential land uses are proposed for the MEV, which are each expected to
accommodate employment by 2031, as summarized in Figure 3-2 and discussed below:
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
Figure 3-2
Milton Education Village
Forecast Employment by Land Use, 2031
No Fixed Place
Work at Home, of Work, 304 ,
8%
237 , 7%
Velodrome
less than 1%
Commercial,
100 , 3%
University, 833
, 23%
Employment
Area, 2,126 ,
59%
Employment Area
The MEV employment area is expected to contain 2,126 jobs, representing 59% of the MEV
employment total. A more detailed analysis of the type of employment by sector to be
accommodated within the employment area is discussed in Section 3.1.2.
Wilfrid Laurier University Campus
As previously discussed, a satellite campus for Wilfrid Laurier University is planned within MEV.
The 1.6 million square foot facility is expected to accommodate 833 jobs by 2031 (23% of MEV
total). This reflects 535 faculty members and 298 administration staff members.1
Velodrome
The proposed velodrome would consist of a 122,980 sq.ft. facility located on a 5-acre site. This
would include a year-round 250m cycling track, with seating for 1,500, and would also house
administrative offices and support facilities. The velodrome is expected to employ 18 FTE jobs,2
representing less than 1% of total MEV employment.
1
Based on Proposed Preliminary Programming for Milton Campus, Wilfrid Laurier University, March 2,
2012.
2
Town of Milton Velodrome Business Plan, Sierra Planning and Management, January 2012.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
Commercial Development
The MEV is anticipated to contain 50,000 sq.ft. of commercial GFA which will accommodate
primarily population-servicing retail and commercial uses.1 It is estimated that commercial
development will employ approximately 100 persons, representing 3% of the total MEV
employment base by 2031.2
Work at Home
Over the forecast period, the MEV is expected to accommodate a population of 6,500. Within
this residential component, opportunities for work at home will exist. It is estimated that by
2031, work at home within MEV will total 237, representing 7% of the total MEV employment.
No Fixed Place of Work
By 2031, MEV is also expected to accommodate 304 jobs with No Fixed Place of Work,3
representing 8% of the total MEV employment base.
3.1.2 Employment Growth by Sector within the MEV Employment Area, 20112031
Given the potential synergies with the Wilfrid Laurier University campus, the employment area’s
employment structure is expected to be largely tied to “knowledge-based” sectors. Further, the
employment area will provide opportunities for industrial uses such as advanced manufacturing
and utilities and construction associated with “clean tech.” However, the employment area is
not expected to cater to many of the traditional industrial uses typical of Milton’s larger
employment areas, such as the Milton 401 Industrial Business Park and the Derry Green
Business Park. These employment lands, characterized by their proximity to the Highway 401
corridor, as well as their large contiguous size, will continue to be the focal point for industrial
uses within Milton such as distribution/logistics, advanced manufacturing and transportation
uses.
Figure 3-3 summarizes the anticipated employment growth within the MEV employment area by
sector. As illustrated, 44% of the total employment of approximately 2,126, representing 925
jobs, is anticipated to be within professional, scientific and technical services, followed by 310
jobs (15%) within information and cultural industries, 305 jobs (15%) within finance, insurance
and real estate, 240 jobs (11%) in manufacturing, 145 jobs (7%) in management and
1
Milton Education Village Background Analysis Retail Market Study Update, W. Scott Morgan &
Associates, 2012.
2
Based on assumption of 500 sq.ft. of GFA per job. (100 jobs = 50,000 sq.ft. GFA/500 GFA per job).
3
No Fixed Place of Work (NFPOW) – defined by Statistics Canada as “persons who do not go from home
to the same place of work at the beginning of each shift.” Such persons include building and landscape
contractors, travelling salespersons, independent truck drivers, etc.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
administrative support and 105 jobs (7%) in construction/utilities. Further, 3% and 1% of
employment would be in accommodation and food services and other services, respectively,
serving as complementary support functions to the core uses within the employment area.
Figure 3-3
MEV Employment Area
Forecast Employment by Sector, 2031
Accomodation Utilities, 45 ,
and f ood
2%
services, 70 , 3%
Other Services,
20 , 1%
Construction, 70
, 3%
Management and
Administrative
Support, 145, 7%
Prof essional,
Scientif ic and
Technical
Services, 925 ,
44%
Manuf acturing,
240 , 11%
Finance,
Inusrance and
Real Estate,
305 , 14% Inf ormation
and Cultural
Industries,
310 , 15%
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
3.2
MEV Non-Residential Land Needs Assessment, 2011-2031
This section explores the MEV’s non-residential land needs to the year 2031, based on the
employment growth analysis provided in Section 3.1.
3.2.1 Land Need Assessment by Component
Employment Area
Figure 3-4 summarizes forecast employment land need for the employment area from 2011 to
2031, in accordance with the forecast employment by sector identified in Section 3.1.2 and
corresponding employment densities. Employment densities by sector vary considerably.
“Knowledge-based” sectors such as research and development, professional, scientific and
technical services, finance, insurance and real estate, information and cultural industries and
management and administrative support are expected to be largely accommodated within office
buildings and laboratories with relatively high employment densities, ranging between 60 and 75
jobs per net ha. This is compared to 45 jobs per net ha in accommodation and food services
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
and other services, 30 jobs per net ha in manufacturing, 25 jobs per net ha in construction and
20 jobs per net ha in utilities. The overall weighted employment density for the employment
area is 55 jobs per net ha.
As shown in Figure 3-4, the employment area has a total land need of 39 net ha (95 net acres).
The identified net residential land need does not reflect site-specific takeouts, including open
space, arterial roads/rail, stormwater ponds and easements. Assuming a 75% net to gross ratio
to account for these additional site-specific takeouts, the employment land requirement is 51
gross ha (127 gross ha). An employment area of this size is of sufficient critical mass to be
successful and compares favourably to other university-oriented research and development
parks in the Province.
Figure 3-4
Town of Milton
MEV Employment Area
Employment Land Need to 2031
Sector
Employment
Employment
Growth within
Land Need (net
Density (jobs per
MEV Employment
ha)
net ha)
Area, 2011-2031
Utilities
45
20
2.3
Construction
70
25
2.8
Manufacturing
Professional, Scientific and Technical
Services
240
30
8.0
925
75
12.3
Information and Cultural Industries
310
75
4.1
Management and Administrative Support
145
60
2.4
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
305
60
5.1
Accommodation and food services
70
45
1.6
Other Services
20
45
0.4
2,130
55
38.6
Total
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
University Campus
The Wilfrid Laurier Campus is expect to require 20 gross ha (50 gross acres) of land.1
Velodrome
The velodrome and corresponding staging area is expected to be accommodated on 3.2 gross
ha (8 gross acres).2
1
2
Notes on MEV Project Team Meeting 1 memorandum, February 9, 2012.
Ibid.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
Retail Commercial
As identified in the Milton Commercial Land Needs Study, a provision for local retail totalling
50,000 sq.ft. within the MEV will be needed to serve the local population within this area. This
warranted demand in commercial space equals approximately 1.9 net ha (4.6 net acres) in
terms of land area.1
The identified net residential land need does not reflect site-specific takeouts, including open
space, arterial roads/rail, stormwater ponds and easements. Assuming a 75% net to gross ratio
to account for these additional site-specific takeouts, the commercial land requirement is 2.5
gross ha (6.1 gross acres).
3.2.2
Land Needs Summary
The MEV’s total non-residential land need by 2031 totals 77 gross ha (190 gross acres). The
employment area accounts for 67% of this total, followed by 26% for the university campus, 4%
for the velodrome and 3% for the commercial lands, as illustrated in Figure 3-5.
Figure 3-5
Milton Education Village
Non-Residential Land Needs, 2031
Velodrome
4%
Commercial
3%
University
26%
Employment
Area
67%
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
1
50,000 sq.ft. of commercial GFA converted to land area based on 25% coverage factor.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
3.3
Location Options for Employment Area
The location of the employment area within the MEV should give consideration to a number of
factors, including (but not limited to) the following:


Proximity to the university campus to facilitate potential synergies;
Proximity and access to Tremaine Road to ensure effective traffic circulation; and

Availability of contiguous lands to foster a sense of place within a well-defined precinct
and to allow for on-site amenities.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
4. ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF MEV NON-RESIDENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
4-1
4.
ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF MEV NON-RESIDENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT
This chapter highlights the importance of the proposed MEV non-residential development
through an assessment of economic benefits.
4.1
Expansion of Milton’s Employment Base
A healthy balance between local population and employment is echoed throughout many of the
guiding principles of the Provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Places to
Grow) that stress the importance of “vibrant” and “complete communities” which support a
“strong and competitive economy.”
As identified in Section 2.4, Milton’s current live/work ratio is less than favourable, particularly in
the “knowledge-based” sectors. The proposed MEV non-residential development would
increase the share of employment opportunities within Milton, particularly in the “knowledgebased” sectors, helping to improve the Town’s live/work ratio over the long term.
The MEV employment area represents an opportunity to expand Milton’s non-residential, nonretail employment base. Non-residential, non-retail development is critical to the development
of Milton’s “export-based” economy. Continued growth in the non-residential, non-retail
development is vital to building and maintaining balanced, fiscally sustainable communities.
4.2
Economic Impact of Non-Residential, Non-Retail Employment
All employment can be categorized as being “basic” or “non-basic” in terms of its relationship to
the local economy. “Basic” employment is that which primarily involves service to non-local
markets (export based) and/or non-retail in nature. In contrast, “non-basic” employment is
largely “population-related” and is geared to the local residential and business market and is
typically retail or service sector based. “Basic” employment forms the foundation of the “exportbased” economy and is the “engine” of economic growth. Maintaining an adequate “basic”
employment base is fundamental to providing potential “spin-off” employment and income
opportunities in the “non-basic” sector. Furthermore, developing and enhancing the “basic”
employment sector is a means to strengthening and growing the local economy.
A major source of “basic” employment in Milton includes uses such as advanced manufacturing,
logistics/distribution and construction. It also includes emerging industries that are part of the
“knowledge-based” sector. The proposed employment area within the MEV is important
because it would accommodate largely “basic” and/or non-retail employment.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
4-2
The importance of “basic” and “export-based” employment is discussed further below.
4.2.1
Economic Multipliers
“Export-based” and/or non-retail employment typically provides a higher potential of indirect or
“spin-off” effects than retail/service sector employment. Economic multipliers identify the
indirect economic effect or “shock” from income generated by a particular employment sector.
The economic multiplier normally expresses the ratio of direct plus indirect income to direct
income.
Figure 4-1 illustrates the typically higher economic multipliers which are calculated from “exportbased” and/or non-retail sectors than from retail/service sectors. For example, the employment
multiplier for the manufacturing sector is 2.06. This means that for every $1.00 of GDP (Gross
Domestic Product) generated directly within this sector, an additional $1.06 in GDP is normally
created based on several rounds of impacts down the supplier chain. When comparing “exportbased” and/or non-retail vs. retail/service jobs:




“Export-based” and/or non-retail employment sectors tend to have the highest economic
multipliers;
Of the “export-based” and/or non-retail employment sectors, financial services and
business services (comprised of finance, insurance, real estate and rental and leasing)
and manufacturing have the strongest economic multipliers, followed by information and
cultural industries, utilities, construction, and professional, scientific and technical
services;
Utilities and construction sectors, while not predominately “export-based” have high
multipliers, in part because of their services to “export-based” companies; and
Most retail/service employment sectors have relatively low economic multipliers.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
4-3
Figure 4-1
Province of Ontario
Provincial Input-Output Multipliers, 2007
Predominantly Export-based and/or Non-retail
Multiplier
Manufacturing
2.06
Transportation and Warehousing
1.52
Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services
1.17
Wholesale Trade
1.53
Construction
1.53
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
1.38
Information and Cultural Industries
1.75
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
2.22
Utilities
2.13
Predominantly Retail/ Service Sector
Multiplier
Health Care and Social Assistance
1.14
Educational Services
1.08
Retail Trade
1.18
Accommodation and Food Services
1.16
Other Services (except Public Administration)
1.09
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
1.35
Source: Statistics Canada, System of National Accounts, Input-Output Tables, Provincial Input-Output Multipliers,
2007.
4.2.2 Induced Effect of Employment
Employment also generates positive “induced” effects which are derived from the spending of
labour income on the consumption of goods and services which drive “non-basic” employment
growth. This effect is not captured in the economic multipliers, but it is significant nonetheless.
The strength of the “induced” effect is largely related to average household income. Higher
income opportunities permit families and individuals to enjoy a higher standard of living with
more disposable income. In turn, this generates growth in household savings, taxation and
consumption of goods and services within the local economy. This increase in demand results
in further expansion on the local and regional employment market, largely in the retail and
business services sector.
Figure 4-2 illustrates average hourly wage rates in Ontario for major “export-based” and/or nonretail sectors and retail/service sectors. Key observations are as follows:

The highest paid job sectors tend to be “export-based” and/or non-retail employment.
This includes utilities, financial services, construction, manufacturing, management of
companies, and professional, scientific, and technical services;
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
4-4

The lowest paid jobs are dominated by retail/service based employment, including retail
trade and accommodation and food services; and

In most cases, contributions to the local economy from “export-based” and/or non-retail
sectors are greater than those provided from retail/service development, in terms of
hourly wage rates.
Figure 4-2
2008 Ontario Wage Rates by Sector
Utilities
Construction
Health Care and Social Assistance
Public Administration
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Manuf acturing
Prof essional, Scientif ic and Technical Services
Inf ormation and Cultural Industries
Finance and Insurance
Transportation and Warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Real Estate and Rental Leasing
Educational Services
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Administrative and Support, Waste Management …
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
0
10
20
Hourly Wage
30
40
Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Employment Payrolls and Hours, 2008.
4.2.3 Quality of Employment
In addition to providing higher average hourly wage rates, “export based” and/or non-retail
employment typically offers better employee benefits, increased full-time employment
opportunities and a greater range of skilled jobs than retail/service employment. This serves to
better the quality of life for the households and individuals involved (i.e. family sustaining) and
makes for a stronger and more balanced community.
Figure 4-3 illustrates the share of full-time employment by major employment sector.
observations include:
Key

The largest share of full-time employment is found in “export-based” and/or non-retail
sectors, including utilities, manufacturing, finance and insurance;

A minimum of 80% of total employment in all “export-based” and/or non-retail sectors is
full-time;
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
4-5

In contrast, the retail/service sectors, with the exception of public administration, tend to
have a relatively low proportionate share of full-time employment. The lowest share of
full-time employment is in the retail trade and arts, entertainment and recreation sectors.
Figure 4-3
Full-Time Employment By Sector
97%
96%
94%
93%
93%
92%
90%
89%
88%
87%
84%
83%
80%
79%
74%
Utilities
Manuf acturing
Public Administration
Finance and Insurance
Wholesale Trade
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Construction
Prof essional, Scientif ic and Technical Services
Inf ormation and Cultural Industries
Transportation and Warehousing
Real Estate and Rental Leasing
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Administrative and Support, Waste Management …
Health Care and Social Assistance
Educational Services
Accomodation and Food Services
Retail Trade
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
65%
63%
60%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Full-Time Employment (%)
Source: Toronto CMA Industry Profiles, 2009, City of Toronto
4.3
Observations
Creating a healthy balance between residential and non-residential development is considered
highly important to maintaining the economic and fiscal sustainability of Milton. Further, nonresidential, non-retail development associated with the MEV employment area would generate
relatively strong economic multipliers that benefit Milton directly and indirectly and provide Town
residents with high quality employment opportunities.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
5. CONCLUSIONS
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis
5-1
5.
CONCLUSIONS
The Milton Education Village is a key component of Milton’s urban development over the 20112031 time period. The MEV represents a unique opportunity to expand and broaden the Town’s
non-residential base through the development of a university campus, an employment area, a
velodrome and a commercial component.
The MEV non-residential development consists of a 1.6 million sq.ft. university campus, a
velodrome, an employment area and a local population-servicing commercial component. Over
the 2011-2031 period, MEV’s employment base is forecast to increase by 3,619. Of this, 82%
will be accommodated within the employment area and the university and will consist largely of
“knowledge-based” jobs. The remaining jobs will be accommodated within the commercial
component, the velodrome, work at home (within the residential component) and no fixed place
of work.
The gross land need for the non-residential development totals 77 ha (190 acres), of which
approximately two-thirds (51 ha or 127 acres) will be required for the employment area. In
comparison, 20 ha (50 acres) are required for the university campus, 3.2 ha (8 acres) for the
velodrome and 2.5 ha (6.1 acres) for the commercial component.
It is envisioned that the employment area will be highly prestige with a compact built form,
yielding an average employment density of 55 jobs per ha. To facilitate synergies with the
university and to maximize access and exposure to major arterial roadways, it is recommended
that the employment area be located along Tremaine Road and in proximity to the university
campus.
The non-residential development within MEV would expand employment opportunities within
Milton, resulting in a more balanced population-employment mix, and would help maintain the
economic and fiscal sustainability of Milton. Key benefits include a favourable non-residential
tax assessment base, reduced commuting dependency and traffic congestion, improved socioeconomic conditions and local quality of life. In addition, the employment area would generate
high quality employment opportunities for Milton’s labour force and generate relatively strong
economic multipliers that would benefit the Town directly and indirectly.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Economic Review.docx
H:\Milton 01\Education Village\Milton MEV Background Analysis