TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Indicator Watch
February 6, 2014
VIX SPIKE IS BULLISH, NOW MONITORING FOR A LESS-INTENSE LOW
What Have We Learned So Far in 2014?
Our outlook for a more volatile 2014 is occurring sooner than we expected, and, in our opinion, should
continue in the coming months as high levels of optimism recede. Does this put the S&P 500’s cyclical
uptrend at risk? It is too soon to take this stance because of the healthy participation displayed at the most
recent price peak, but we believe it’s possible as we approach the 5-year anniversary of the March 2009 cycle
low. In our view, recent volatility is part of a correction within the later stages of an intact bull market, and any
new price highs that are undermined by divergences in our internal breadth work in the coming months would
change the tone of our cyclical view.
Overall, we view recent losses as an opportunity to accumulate core positions now, are closely watching for
signals of lesser downside intensity that could help propel a near-term rally, and still see intermediate-term
downside risk. Less-intense lows occur when price makes a new low but intensity indicators like the VIX and
RSI make higher lows. In terms of S&P 500 levels, 1730 is the “minimum bull market retracement” from the
index’s November 2012 low and its 200-day m.a. is a likely test at 1710 as well.
Study: Volatility in an Uptrend is a Good Thing
Forward performance stats are above-average at the 13, 26, and 52-week horizons when the VIX is at least
50% above its 63-day low AND the S&P 500 is above its 200-day m.a. This supports our view that recent
losses are an opportunity to accumulate core positions.
However…
1) VIX spikes provided a below-average return in the forward 4 weeks. We believe this speaks to the need
to stabilize after a sharp selloff, and we’ve found that less-intense lows tend to be a more reliable signal of
an imminent turning point.
2) There is also a duration aspect to corrections. Since 2010, the median correction has lasted 34 days and
suggests that price action could continue to linger for a couple of more weeks. This would support a lower
low with lesser downside intensity.
What Should I Buy? What Should I Sell?
Our Bullish Technical Basket (S&P 500) includes oversold stocks (RSI<45) in uptrends. From this list, stocks
with a SIM = 1 rating (top WR Quant score) that beat both Q413 revenue and EPS expectations (listed in the
WR Strategy team’s recent note) are: MCHP, PSX, RF, STI, & VLO.
Our Bearish Technical Basket (S&P 500) includes fresh breakdowns (6M lows) in weak trends. From this list,
stocks with a SIM = 5 rating (worst WR Quant score) are: FAST, KMX, PCL, & TEG.
For more information on Macro Research please refer to recent reports by our Chief Investment Strategist,
Chris Senyek: 4Q13 Earnings Season Tracker (Feb. 3, 2014).
Ari H. Wald, CFA, CMT - Technical Analyst
(646) 845-0754
[email protected]
This report is limited solely for the use of clients of Wolfe Research. Please refer to the DISCLOSURE SECTION located at the end of this report
for Analyst Certifications, Important Disclosures and Other Disclosures.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 1 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Indicator Watch
Monitoring for a Less-Intense Low
when price makes a new low but intensity indicators
like the VIX and RSI make higher lows.
What Have We Learned So Far in 2014?
Our outlook for a more volatile 2014 is occurring sooner
than we expected, and, in our opinion, should continue in
the coming months as high levels of optimism recede.
Does this put the S&P 500’s cyclical uptrend at risk? It is
too soon to take this stance because of the healthy
participation displayed at the most recent price peak, but
we believe it’s possible as we approach the 5-year
anniversary of the March 2009 cycle low. In our view,
recent volatility is part of a correction within the later
stages of an intact bull market, and any new price highs
that are undermined by divergences in our internal
breadth work in the coming months would change the tone
of our cyclical view.
2) There is also a duration aspect to the correction, and
the 19 days from the January peak into the February
low may not be a long enough period to correct the
trend. Since 2010, the median correction has lasted
34 days and suggests that price action could continue
to linger for a couple of more weeks. This would also
support a lower low with lesser downside intensity.
Should I Buy?
The answer is “yes” for traders depending if you prefer to
be slightly early or slightly late. However, while a sharp
reduction in optimistic survey data is helping relieve
extended conditions in our intermediate-term indicators,
our favorite 3-6M signals remain neutral at best. Overall,
we view recent losses as an opportunity to accumulate
core positions now, are closely watching for signals of
lesser downside intensity that could help propel a nearterm rally, and still see intermediate-term downside risk.
Indicator Watch Update
Internal Buying Intensity has dropped to 45%, and we’re
watching for an additional decline to 35%-40% to mark an
extreme reading that would support a swift reversal
higher. This is another preferred measure of intensity.
Study: Volatility in an Uptrend is a Good Thing
We believe the following rules apply to current conditions:
1) Buy pullbacks above a rising 200-day m.a. This
simple rule helps us stay on the side of the index’s
long-term trend. We consider the S&P 500’s trend as
higher as measured by the slope of its 200-day m.a.
2) Buy spikes in the VIX. These short-lived events are
typically signals of heightened fear and can be
followed by robust snap-back rallies.
This is
especially true when the index’s trend is positive.
The numbers agree. Forward performance stats are
above-average at the 13, 26, and 52-week horizons when
the VIX is at least 50% above its 63-day low AND the S&P
500 is above its 200-day m.a. (page 3). This supports our
view that recent losses are an opportunity to accumulate
core positions.
However...
1) VIX spikes provided a below-average return in the
forward 4 weeks. We believe this speaks to the need
to stabilize after a sharp selloff, and we’ve found that
less-intense lows tend to be a more reliable signal of
an imminent turning point. Less-intense lows occur
WolfeResearch.com
In terms of near-term S&P 500 levels, 1730 is the 23.6%
Fibonacci retracement from the index’s November 2012
low. This is generally referred to as a “minimum bull
market retracement.” The index’s 200-day m.a. is a likely
test at 1710 as well. The index has not traded below its
200-day m.a. since November 2012.
Investors Intelligence (II) % Bulls have fallen to 46% from
62% at the start of the month, and more importantly II %
Bears have inched higher to 17%, the most since October.
We would like to see these bearish figures continue to rise
before a strong intermediate-term buy point is presented,
and it would likely take greater volatility in the coming
months to see this type of bearishness.
What Should I Buy? What Should I Sell?
Our Bullish Technical Basket (S&P 500) includes oversold
stocks in uptrends (page 7). These are stocks 1) above
their 200-day m.a. (in an uptrend), 2) that are holding their
Dec low (stronger than SPX which did not hold this
support), and 3) with a daily RSI below 45 (presenting an
oversold opportunity).
 From this list, stocks with a SIM = 1 rating (top WR
Quant score) that beat both Q413 revenue and EPS
expectations (listed in the WR Strategy team’s recent
note) are: MCHP, PSX, RF, STI, & VLO.
Our Bearish Technical Basket (S&P 500) includes fresh
breakdowns in weak trends (page 9). These are stocks
with 1) 50-day m.a. below their 200-day m.a. (in a
deteriorating trend) that 2) fell to a 6-month low this week
(fresh breakdown).
 From this list, stocks with a SIM = 5 rating (worst WR
Quant score) are: FAST, KMX, PCL, & TEG.
Page 2 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
VIX Spikes are Stronger Signals in Uptrends
 Forward performance stats are above-average at the 13, 26, and 52-week horizons when the VIX is
at least 50% above its 63-day low AND the S&P 500 is above its 200-day m.a. However, this signal
has provided below-average returns in the forward 4 weeks.
Exhibit 1. S&P 500 Index & Normalized VIX Index
VIX Spikes in an Uptrend
S&P 500 Average Forward Performance since 1990
4W
0.8%
-0.2%
13W
2.5%
1.8%
26W
5.2%
5.6%
52W
10.6%
10.2%
Occurences
Both Parameters
0.4%
4.5%
9.1%
12.8%
1.6%
All Occurences
0.7%
2.1%
4.2%
8.7%
100%
SPX > 200Dma
50% VIX Spike
71.8%
4.1%
S&P 500 & Normalized VIX - % above 63-day low
50%
Source: Wolfe Technical Research, Bloomberg.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 3 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Watching for a Less-Intense Low in the Coming Days/Weeks
 The 19 days from the January peak into the February low may not be a long enough period to correct
the trend. Since 2010, the median correction has lasted 34 days and suggests that price action
could continue to linger for a couple of more weeks.
 For the S&P 500, 1730 is the “minimum bull market retracement” from its November 2012 low, and
its 200-day m.a. is a likely test at 1710 as well.
Exhibit 2. S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 Correction Stats: 2010-2013
Top
Bottom
Price
Change
Jan-10
Apr-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
May-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Feb-10
Jul-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jun-12
Nov-12
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
-8%
-16%
-6%
-18%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-5%
-4%
20
70
26
101
63
62
34
25
21
Average
Median
-9%
-8%
47
34
Feb-14
-6%
19
Jan-14
Duration
(days)
S&P 500
w/ 200-day moving average
Corrections since 2010 have tended to last
longer than the current 19-day pullback
19
days
1730
(23.6% of Nov 2012-Jan 2014)
34
days
25
days
26
days
20
days
70
days
101
days
63
days
62
days
21
days
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 4 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Watching for Oversold Breadth Readings
 NYSE Internal Buying Intensity has dropped to 45%, and we’re watching for an additional decline to
35%-40% to mark an extreme reading that would support a swift reversal higher. This is another
preferred measure of intensity.
Exhibit 3. S&P 500 Index & NYSE Internal Buying Intensity
S&P 500
Buying Intensity (NYSE)
Advancing Breadth (volume * issues)
Total Breadth (volume * issues)
(2)
(1)
X?
(2)
(1)
(1)
(1) Deep oversold is good… (2) less-intense is even better … currently don’t have either.
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 5 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Still Need More Bears to Mark a Strong Intermediate-term Buy Point
 Investors Intelligence (II) % Bulls have fallen to 46% from 62% at the start of the month, and more
importantly II % Bears have inched higher to 17%, the most since October.
 We would like to see these bearish figures continue to rise before a strong intermediate-term buy
point is presented, and it would likely take greater volatility in the coming months to see this type of
bearishness.
Exhibit 4. Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey Data
Investors Intelligence % Advisors Sentiment
60
50
46%
Bulls
40
37%
Correction
30
20
II % Bullish
II % Bears
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
10
Sep-13
17%
Bears
II % Correction
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 6 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Screen: Stocks to Buy on the Dip
 Our Bullish Technical Basket (S&P 500) includes oversold stocks in uptrends. These are stocks 1)
above their 200-day m.a. (in an uptrend), 2) that are holding their Dec low (stronger than SPX which
did not hold this support), and 3) with a daily RSI below 45 (presenting an oversold opportunity).
 From this list, stocks with a SIM = 1 rating (top WR Quant score) that beat both Q413 revenue and
EPS expectations (listed in the WR Strategy team’s recent note) are: MCHP, PSX, RF, STI, & VLO.
Exhibit 5. Bullish Technical Screen: Oversold Stocks in Strong Trends
Bullish Basket (S&P 500): Buy on the Dip Candidates
Stocks above their 200-day m.a. (in an uptrend)…
...that are holding their Dec low (stronger than SPX which did not hold this support)…
...with a daily RSI < 45 (presenting an oversold opportunity).
Ticker Name
Sector
Industry
DLPH
GT
GHC
CCL
MAR
MHK
NWL
EXPE
DIS
DTV
OMC
GCI
AZO
BF/B
CCE
SYY
SLB
NBR
EOG
PSX
VLO
CNX
NTRS
ETFC
LM
WFC
USB
BBT
STI
FITB
RF
DFS
MHFI
MCO
AIZ
AMT
HST
COV
BDX
STJ
ZMH
VAR
UNH
AET
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Health Care
Health Care
Health Care
Health Care
Health Care
Health Care
Health Care
Auto Components
Auto Components
Diversified Consumer Services
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Household Durables
Household Durables
Internet & Catalog Retail
Media
Media
Media
Media
Specialty Retail
Beverages
Beverages
Food & Staples Retailing
Energy Equipment & Services
Energy Equipment & Services
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Capital Markets
Capital Markets
Capital Markets
Commercial Banks
Commercial Banks
Commercial Banks
Commercial Banks
Commercial Banks
Commercial Banks
Consumer Finance
Diversified Financial Services
Diversified Financial Services
Insurance
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Health Care Equipment & Supplies
Health Care Equipment & Supplies
Health Care Equipment & Supplies
Health Care Equipment & Supplies
Health Care Equipment & Supplies
Health Care Providers & Services
Health Care Providers & Services
DELPHI AUTOMOTIV
GOODYEAR TIRE
GRAHAM HOLDING-B
CARNIVAL CORP
MARRIOTT INTL-A
MOHAWK INDS
NEWELL RUBBERMAI
EXPEDIA INC
WALT DISNEY CO
DIRECTV
OMNICOM GROUP
GANNETT CO
AUTOZONE INC
BROWN-FORMAN -B
COCA-COLA ENTER
SYSCO CORP
SCHLUMBERGER LTD
NABORS INDS LTD
EOG RESOURCES
PHILLIPS 66
VALERO ENERGY
CONSOL ENERGY
NORTHERN TRUST
E*TRADE FINANCIA
LEGG MASON INC
WELLS FARGO & CO
US BANCORP
BB&T CORP
SUNTRUST BANKS
FIFTH THIRD BANC
REGIONS FINANCIA
DISCOVER FINANCI
MCGRAW HILL FINA
MOODY'S CORP
ASSURANT INC
AMERICAN TOWER C
HOST HOTELS & RE
COVIDIEN PLC
BECTON DICKINSON
ST JUDE MEDICAL
ZIMMER HLDGS
VARIAN MEDICAL S
UNITEDHEALTH GRP
AETNA INC
Market RSI
Cap ($B) (14D)
18.5
5.6
4.6
31.9
14.4
10.2
8.8
8.4
124.4
36.3
18.6
6.0
16.4
16.2
11.1
20.2
114.3
5.0
45.9
42.7
26.3
8.7
14.2
5.6
4.9
234.6
71.4
26.0
19.8
17.6
13.7
25.0
20.9
16.1
4.7
31.3
13.8
29.9
20.6
17.5
15.6
8.1
70.9
24.7
43
39
36
44
39
36
36
36
37
43
42
35
45
45
39
33
41
43
42
34
45
45
37
38
37
39
35
38
40
40
39
42
44
40
41
41
32
41
33
34
38
41
39
40
Market RSI
Cap ($B) (14D)
Ticker Name
Sector
Industry
CI
DVA
A
PRGO
UTX
HON
COL
TXT
TYC
CTAS
JEC
PWR
ROK
ROP
IR
PNR
FLS
RHI
R
HRS
HPQ
STX
SNDK
GLW
FLIR
V
ACN
CTSH
FISV
AMAT
XLNX
LLTC
NVDA
MCHP
ORCL
ADBE
ADSK
DD
LYB
CF
FTR
AES
NRG
Health Care
Health Care
Health Care
Health Care
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Technology
Materials
Materials
Materials
Telecom
Utilities
Utilities
Health Care Providers & Services
Health Care Providers & Services
Life Sciences Tools & Services
Pharmaceuticals
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense
Commercial Services & Supplies
Commercial Services & Supplies
Construction & Engineering
Construction & Engineering
Electrical Equipment
Electrical Equipment
Machinery
Machinery
Machinery
Professional Services
Road & Rail
Communications Equipment
Computers & Peripherals
Computers & Peripherals
Computers & Peripherals
Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components
Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components
IT Services
IT Services
IT Services
IT Services
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Software
Software
Software
Chemicals
Chemicals
Chemicals
Diversified Telecommunication Services
Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
CIGNA CORP
DAVITA HEALTHCAR
AGILENT TECH INC
PERRIGO CO PLC
UNITED TECH CORP
HONEYWELL INTL
ROCKWELL COLLINS
TEXTRON INC
TYCO INTL LTD
CINTAS CORP
JACOBS ENGIN GRP
QUANTA SERVICES
ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
ROPER INDS
INGERSOLL-RAND
PENTAIR LTD-REG
FLOWSERVE CORP
ROBERT HALF INTL
RYDER SYSTEM INC
HARRIS CORP
HEWLETT-PACKARD
SEAGATE TECHNOLO
SANDISK CORP
CORNING INC
FLIR SYSTEMS
VISA INC-CLASS A
ACCENTURE PLC-A
COGNIZANT TECH-A
FISERV INC
APPLIED MATERIAL
XILINX INC
LINEAR TECH CORP
NVIDIA CORP
MICROCHIP TECH
ORACLE CORP
ADOBE SYS INC
AUTODESK INC
DU PONT (EI)
LYONDELLBASELL-A
CF INDUSTRIES HO
FRONTIER COMMUNI
AES CORP
NRG ENERGY
23.4
13.3
19.0
20.9
100.4
70.5
10.1
9.9
18.3
6.7
7.8
6.5
15.5
13.1
16.5
14.7
9.9
5.5
3.7
7.2
53.8
16.4
15.4
24.0
4.4
135.8
53.0
29.4
14.3
20.2
12.0
10.2
8.9
8.6
161.7
29.6
11.3
57.1
43.1
12.9
4.5
10.0
8.9
39
45
41
44
40
45
44
41
45
34
30
40
38
37
33
38
32
39
36
42
45
34
38
37
42
43
37
43
35
38
41
38
45
42
38
44
45
39
44
39
33
41
45
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 7 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
STI: Oversold in an Uptrend
 SunTrust Banks (STI, $20B market cap), Financials Sector, Commercial Banks Industry.
STI’s daily RSI has reset to 45 from 80 in January, and the stock is coming into $35 - $35.5 support.
The stock’s 200-day m.a. is rising steadily higher indicating that its trend is healthy and that pullbacks
remain opportunities to accumulate positions. We remain constructive on Commercial Banks as a whole
and believe that the industry is a leadership candidate for the coming months. STI is SIM =1 (top WR
Quant score) and was listed as one of our top 25 technical trends in our Q1’14 Roadmap.
Exhibit 6. SunTrust Banks (STI)
SunTrust Banks (STI)
$35.5
$35
$35-$35.5 is near-term support
w/ 50 & 200-day moving averages
Daily RSI
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 8 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bearish Screen: Stocks to Sell on a Bounce
 Our Bearish Technical Basket (S&P 500) includes fresh breakdowns in weak trends. These are
stocks with 1) 50-day m.a. below their 200-day m.a. (in a deteriorating trend) that 2) fell to a 6-month
low this week (fresh breakdown).
 From this list, stocks with a SIM = 5 rating (worst WR Quant score) are: FAST, KMX, PCL, & TEG.
Exhibit 7. Bearish Technical Screen: Fresh Breakdowns in Weak Trends
Bearish Basket (S&P 500): Short on the Bounce Candidates
Stocks with 50-day m.a. < 200-day m.a. (in a deteriorating trend)…
...that fell to a 6-month low this week (fresh breakdown).
Ticker Name
Sector
Industry
F
MCD
IGT
TGT
FDO
BBBY
KMX
SPLS
PETM
URBN
GME
RL
COH
PEP
KRFT
GIS
K
SJM
MKC
AVP
PM
RAI
RIG
ESV
NE
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Energy
Energy
Energy
Automobiles
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Multiline Retail
Multiline Retail
Specialty Retail
Specialty Retail
Specialty Retail
Specialty Retail
Specialty Retail
Specialty Retail
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods
Beverages
Food Products
Food Products
Food Products
Food Products
Food Products
Personal Products
Tobacco
Tobacco
Energy Equipment & Services
Energy Equipment & Services
Energy Equipment & Services
FORD MOTOR CO
MCDONALDS CORP
INTL GAME TECH
TARGET CORP
FAMILY DOLLAR ST
BED BATH &BEYOND
CARMAX INC
STAPLES INC
PETSMART INC
URBAN OUTFITTER
GAMESTOP CORP-A
RALPH LAUREN COR
COACH INC
PEPSICO INC
KRAFT FOODS GROU
GENERAL MILLS IN
KELLOGG CO
JM SMUCKER CO
MCCORMICK-N/V
AVON PRODUCTS
PHILIP MORRIS IN
REYNOLDS AMERICA
TRANSOCEAN LTD
ENSCO PLC-CL A
NOBLE CORP PLC
Market
Cap ($B)
58.5
92.8
3.6
34.9
6.9
13.6
10.2
8.5
6.5
5.1
3.9
14.2
12.8
121.3
30.5
29.4
20.8
9.8
8.4
6.3
123.3
25.7
15.3
11.5
7.9
Market
Cap ($B)
Ticker Name
Sector
Industry
DO
RDC
CVX
APC
MRO
DNR
XL
PCL
DGX
RSG
ADT
GWW
FAST
WU
SYMC
CTXS
BMS
NEM
T
CTL
WIN
FE
PNW
ED
TEG
TE
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Financials
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Technology
Technology
Technology
Materials
Materials
Telecom
Telecom
Telecom
Utilities
Utilities
Utilities
Utilities
Utilities
Energy Equipment & Services
Energy Equipment & Services
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Insurance
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Health Care Providers & Services
Commercial Services & Supplies
Commercial Services & Supplies
Trading Companies & Distributors
Trading Companies & Distributors
IT Services
Software
Software
Containers & Packaging
Metals & Mining
Diversified Telecommunication Services
Diversified Telecommunication Services
Diversified Telecommunication Services
Electric Utilities
Electric Utilities
Multi-Utilities
Multi-Utilities
Multi-Utilities
DIAMOND OFFSHORE
ROWAN COMPANIE-A
CHEVRON CORP
ANADARKO PETROLE
MARATHON OIL
DENBURY RESOURCE
XL GROUP PLC
PLUM CREEK TIMBR
QUEST DIAGNOSTIC
REPUBLIC SVCS
ADT CORP/THE
WW GRAINGER INC
FASTENAL CO
WESTERN UNION
SYMANTEC CORP
CITRIX SYSTEMS
BEMIS CO
NEWMONT MINING
AT&T INC
CENTURYLINK INC
WINDSTREAM HOLDI
FIRSTENERGY CORP
PINNACLE WEST
CONS EDISON INC
INTEGRYS ENERGY
TECO ENERGY INC
6.7
3.9
213.3
40.4
22.4
5.8
8.0
7.5
7.5
11.4
5.5
16.1
13.0
8.4
14.2
10.0
3.8
10.5
169.0
16.6
4.3
13.0
5.7
15.7
4.2
3.5
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 9 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
FAST: Sell the Bounce
 Fastenal (FAST, $13B market cap), Industrials Sector, Trading Companies & Distributors Industry.
FAST’s recent breach of $44 support is bearish confirmation of a deteriorating trend. There is downside
risk to $38-$40 (2012 lows) given negatively trending momentum and a downward sloping 200-day m.a.,
and we therefore recommend selling bounce attempts to $46 resistance. FAST is SIM = 5 (worst WR
Quant score).
Exhibit 8. Fastenal Co (FAST)
Fastenal (FAST)
$46
$40
$38
$46 resistance
$38-$40 is downside risk
w/ 200-day moving average
Weekly MACD
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 10 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND & LEADERSHIP: POSITIVE



The S&P 500 is testing former resistance now support at its 1730 September peak (L1).
The S&P 500 Equal Weight has ticked higher vs. the S&P 500 in recent weeks (R1). The S&P 600 has fallen
to a multi-month relative low (L1). High Beta has ticked only slightly lower vs. Low Volatility (R2).
Overseas equities have failed at their falling 200-day m.a. vs. the U.S. (R3).
Exhibit 9. Trend & Leadership Charts
1.59
S&P 500 Index
1850
S&P 500 Equal Weight vs. S&P 500
1.57
1750
1.55
1650
1.53
1550
1.51
1450
1.49
1350
1.47
(50-day Bollinger Band)
(50- & 200-day m.a.s.)
0.75
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
1.35
S&P 400 vs. S&P 500
0.74
1.45
Mar-12
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
1250
S&P 500: High Beta vs. Low Volatility
1.30
0.73
1.25
0.72
1.20
1.15
0.71
1.10
0.70
1.05
0.69
1.00
0.95
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
Jul-12
1.16
S&P 600 vs. S&P 500
0.365
May-12
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
0.375
(50- & 200-day m.a.s.)
0.90
Mar-12
(50- & 200-day m.a.s.)
0.67
Nov-12
0.68
MSCI EAFE vs. S&P 500
1.14
(50- & 200-day m.a.s.)
1.12
0.355
1.10
0.345
1.08
0.335
1.06
0.325
1.04
0.315
1.02
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
1.00
Mar-12
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
May-12
Mar-12
0.305
Jul-12
(50- & 200-day m.a.s.)
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg; or stated in chart.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 11 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
INTERNAL BREADTH: POSITIVE

Unlike the S&P 500, both NYSE Advance-Decline lines (volume & issues) are holding their December low (L1,
RS). Volume distribution has spiked (R2).
200-day participation (54%) has fallen faster than net new 52W highs in recent weeks (L2, L3).
Internal Buying Intensity (volume*issues) has dropped to 45% but is not extremely oversold (R3).


Exhibit 10. Internal Breadth Charts
29000
75000
Advance-Decline Line (NYSE)
A-D Volume Line (NYSE)
27000
65000
25000
55000
23000
21000
45000
19000
35000
17000
52Wk New Highs - New Lows (NYSE)
Jan-14
(21-day average)
Adv (green)
450
200
Nov-13
Advancing vs. Declining Volume (NYSE)
500
300
Sep-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
550
400
Mar-14
(All common stocks)
15000
25000
Jul-13
(All common stocks)
400
100
350
0
300
-100
250
Dcl (red)
(21-day average)
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Mar-12
200
-200
80%
100
Internal Buying Intensity (NYSE)
% of Stocks Above 200-day m.a. (NYSE)
Confirmed
70%
80
60%
50%
60
40%
?
40
Adv. Force / Total Force
Force = Issues * Volume
30%
(21-day average)
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Mar-12
20%
20
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg; or stated in chart.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 12 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
MOMENTUM: NEUTRAL

Daily momentum is deeply oversold (L1, L2, L3). The S&P 500’s daily RSI = 35, its lowest level since
November 2012.
Weekly momentum is neutral/overbought (-), inflecting negatively (-), and confirmed (+) (R1, R2, R3). The
S&P 500’s weekly RSI has dropped to 50, its lowest level since December 2012.

Exhibit 11. Momentum Charts
80
90
Weekly RSI (S&P 500)
Daily RSI (S&P 500)
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
(14-week)
(14-day)
60
Daily MACD (S&P 500)
20
40
10
20
0
0
-10
-20
-20
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
30
Jul-09
20
10
Jan-09
20
Weekly MACD (S&P 500)
-40
(12,26,9)
(12,26,9,spread)
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jan-14
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-13
20
Jan-13
40
Jan-13
40
Jul-12
60
Jul-12
60
Jan-12
80
Jul-09
Weekly Stochastic (S&P 500)
100
80
Jan-12
Daily Stochastic (S&P 500)
100
-60
Jan-09
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
-30
20
(20-day)
(20-week)
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
0
Jan-09
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
0
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg; or stated in chart.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 13 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
SENTIMENT: NEGATIVE/NEUTRAL

The Put/Call ratio (0.9) is becoming increasingly pessimistic and the VIX has spiked above 20 (L1, L2). VIX
spikes tend to mark above-average forward performance in the coming quarters when they occur in uptrends.
 Our % Bullish Composite (75%) has started to unravel from extreme optimism (R1). The normalized readings
in AAII, Investors Intelligence, Market Vane, and Consensus Inc., are: 28%, 49%, 74%, and 86%.
 ICI Fund Flows (2014-01-29 weekly estimate): Equities = +$1.9B; Taxable Bonds = -$1.4B (L3, R3).
Exhibit 12. Sentiment Charts
100
0.65
Optimistic
0.75
Optimistic
WR % Bullish Composite
Composite Put/Call Ratio
4-week average
80
60
0.85
40
0.95
Pessimistic
20
1.05
(Investors Intelligence, Consensus Inc., Market Vane, & AAII)
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
0
Jan-09
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Pessimistic
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
(10-day average, inverted scale)
10
13
60
16
50
19
40
22
II Bulls
II Correction
30
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
25
20
(50-day Bollinger Band, inverted scale)
II Bears
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Nov-13
ICI Weekly Domestic Equity Flows ($B, est.)
10
Mar-12
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
28
10
Investors Intelligence %
ICI Weekly Taxable Bond Flows ($B, est.)
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-15
-10
-20
(Investment Company Institute)
(Investment Company Institute)
-15
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
-25
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg; or stated in chart.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 14 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
INTER-MARKET: NEUTRAL

10-year U.S. Treasury yield is showing signs of bouncing from 2.5% support (L1). Inflation expectations
remain range bound while U.S. economic data are beating expectations at a slower pace (L2, L3).
WTI faces resistance at $99 (R1). Gold starts to face resistance at its declining 200-day m.a. at $1310 (R2).
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is up against 81.5 is resistance (R3).


Exhibit 13. Inter-Market Charts
3.8
115
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
WTI Crude Oil futures
110
3.3
105
100
2.8
95
2.3
90
85
1.8
80
(50- & 200-day m.a.s.)
1900
10-Year U.S. Breakeven Inflation Expectations
Jan-14
Mar-14
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jul-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jul-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
2.9
Mar-13
(50- & 200-day m.a.s.)
75
1.3
Gold spot
1800
2.7
1700
2.5
1600
2.3
1500
2.1
1400
1300
Jan-14
Mar-14
Mar-14
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jul-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jan-14
150
(50- & 200-day m.a.s.)
1200
Mar-11
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
1.7
May-11
1.9
86
Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index
100
84
Net Beats
82
50
80
0
78
-50
Net Misses
76
-100
(50- & 200-day m.a.s.)
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Jan-11
72
Mar-11
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Jan-11
-150
Mar-11
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
74
(5-day m.a.)
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg; or stated in chart.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 15 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
SECTOR & INDUSTRY MOMENTUM SNAP SHOT
Our Sector & Industry Momentum Snap Shot is a current and concise overview of the leaders and laggards
throughout the equity market. As a proxy for momentum, this tool screens for the level and direction of Weekly
RSI for a comprehensive list of broad market indexes, S&P sectors (relative to SPX), and all GICS level 3
industries relative to their respective sector. It is designed to be a differentiated performance table and an
unbiased starting point to help generate trend-following or mean-reverting ideas; it does not incorporate trend and
therefore does not provide a complete signal. Please see the example on the following page.
Exhibit 14. Sector & Industry Momentum Snap Shot
Sector & Industry Momentum Snap Shot - week of February 7
Key Market Indexes
Weekly 4-week
Absolute Price Momentum
RSI Direction
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
51
S&P 500 Index
50
WTI Crude Oil future
49
+
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
49
Gold spot
44
+
Broad Market Equity Averages
Relative to S&P 500
NASDAQ-100
72
+
S&P 500 Equal Weight
61
+
S&P 400 Mid Cap
50
Russell 2000
50
S&P 600 Small Cap
47
MSCI EAFE Developed Markets
41
Dow Jones Industrial Average
36
S&P 100 Index
33
MSCI Emerging Markets
27
S&P 500 Sectors
Relative to S&P 500
Health Care
72
+
Technology
68
+
Industrials
57
Utilities
51
+
Materials
50
Financials
46
Consumer Discretionary
46
Telecom
27
Energy
26
Consumer Staples
25
Styles
Relative to S&P 500
Russell 1000 Growth
70
+
S&P 500 High Beta
62
Russell 2000 Growth
54
Russell 2000 Value
43
S&P 500 Low Volatility
38
+
Russell 1000 Value
35
S&P High Yield Dividend
29
S&P 1500 Energy
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1)
Energy Equipment & Services
52
+
Oil, Gas, & Consumable Fuels
48
-
S&P 1500 Materials
Weekly 4-week
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1)
RSI Direction
Construction Materials
68
+
Chemicals
61
+
Paper & Forest Products
56
+
Containers & Packaging
49
+
Metals & Mining
36
S&P 1500 Industrials
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1)
Aerospace & Defense
73
+
Airlines
69
+
Road & Rail
59
+
Marine
55
Building Products
53
Machinery
49
+
Professional Services
48
Construction & Engineering
43
Electrical Equipment
42
Trading Companies & Distributors
40
Air Freight & Logistics
39
Commercial Services & Supplies
34
Industrial Conglomerates
33
S&P 1500 Consumer Discretionary
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1)
Media
72
+
Household Durables
65
+
Internet & Catalog Retail
60
Diversified Consumer Services
58
Auto Components
57
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
50
+
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury
48
+
Automobiles
35
Distributors
30
Leisure Equipment & Products
26
Speciality Retail
24
Multiline Retail
22
S&P 1500 Consumer Staples
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1)
Beverages
62
+
Food & Staples Retailing
58
+
Food Products
57
Household Products
49
+
Tobacco
32
Personal Products
28
-
S&P 1500 Health Care
Weekly 4-week
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1)
RSI Direction
Biotechnology
67
+
Life Sciences Tools & Services
67
+
Health Care Providers & Services
49
+
Health Care Technology
43
Pharmaceuticals
38
Health Care Equipment & Supplies
34
S&P 1500 Financials
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1)
Real Estate Management & Dev
73
+
Commercial Banks
65
+
Diversified Financial Services
52
+
Consumer Finance
52
Real Estate Investment Trusts
49
+
Capital Markets
46
Thrifts & Mortgage Finance
43
Insurance
33
S&P 1500 Technology
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1)
Internet Software & Services
74
+
Software
50
+
Office Electronics
49
Electronic Equipment
49
Communications Equipment
47
+
Computers & Peripherals
45
Semis & Semi Equipment
43
IT Services
39
S&P 1500 Telecom
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1)
Wireless Telecom
54
Diversified Telecom
47
+
S&P 1500 Utilities
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1)
Gas Utilities
70
Multi-Utilities
53
Independent Power Producers
47
Water Utilities
40
Electric Utilities
39
+
*Weekly RSI measures the level of momentum:
Oversold (green), Neutral (yellow), Overbought (red).
*The +/- column measures the 4-week direction of
momentum.
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 16 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Sector & Industry Momentum Snap Shot (Example)
S&P 1500 Road & Rails Industry vs. S&P 1500 Industrials Sector. In the following example, Road & Rail
receives a “Green-Minus” rating in the Snap Shot table due to oversold momentum that is trending negatively.
This indicates that the industry has been a laggard within the sector, and momentum is still trending negatively.
The Snap Shot is designed to be a differentiated performance table and an unbiased starting point to help
generate trend-following or mean-reverting ideas; it does not incorporate trend and therefore does not provide a
complete signal. Many times our favorite ideas are in the middle “Yellow” zone in the direction of momentum.
Overbought/oversold is registered by the level of the industry’s Weekly RSI (relative vs. sector) and the 4-week
direction is also captured. A rising/falling Weekly RSI indicates that the magnitude of gains is greater/less than
the magnitude of losses over the last 14 weeks.
Exhibit 15 (example). S&P 1500 Road & Rail Industry vs. S&P 1500 Industrials Sector
*This is an example; chart is not updated
S&P 1500 Road & Rail Industry vs. S&P 1500 Industrials Sector
Overbought (above 60)
Weekly RSI
RSI is lower vs. 4 weeks ago
Oversold (below 40)
Oversold level
Negative direction
Source: Wolfe Technical Research; Bloomberg.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 17 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
AN INTRODUCTION TO WOLFE TECHNICAL RESEARCH
Wolfe Technical Research
From time to time we offer a Technical Analysis perspective on stocks that are covered by Wolfe’s
fundamental research teams. Wolfe remains a fundamental research firm at its core and these technical
notes are intended as a supplemental tool to confirm trends and timing.
Please contact
[email protected] for inclusion on the distribution of our stock-specific commentary.
Wolfe Technical Research is intended to generate investment ideas, provide tactical entry/exit signals,
and act as an additional layer of risk management for our clients that are making fundamental-based
investment decisions. Our goal is to be the technical input for your comprehensive investment
approach.
Product Overview
1. Indicator Watch is a chart kit of our favorite tactical indicators based on Trend & Relative
Leadership, Internal Breadth, Momentum, Sentiment, and Inter-Market analysis. From a timing
perspective, our analysis exposes attractive risk/reward opportunities when supply/demand
imbalances develop, and we subsequently aim to select the strongest stocks, within the strongest
industries, within the strongest sectors when S&P 500 conditions are advantageous. Please click for
a sample publication. Published Thursdays.
2. Blending Technical Analysis with our Quantitative Research:
The WR Macro team’s
quantitative screens are based on five important factors that form the basis for successful investing:
valuation, account/earnings quality, capital creation, capital allocation, and sentiment. Each week we
overlay a technical discipline to their most recent screen. Please click for a sample publication.
Published Thursdays.
3. Trading Our Fundamental Coverage: We offer a technical analysis perspective on stocks that are
covered by Wolfe’s fundamental research teams. These notes are intended as a supplemental tool
to confirm trends and timing. Please click for a sample publication. Published Tuesdays.
4. *CUSTOM SCREENING REQUESTS*: One of our most popular offerings is to provide a technical
screen for customized interest lists. Please contact us regarding questions, comments, or to discuss
specific ideas.
5. Click here for a more detailed discussion of our Methodology for technical analysis at the stock level.
Process Objective: Our objective on a technical basis is twofold, 1) identify an above-average
likelihood of an emerging trend at the earliest possible moment and, 2) stick with that trend until contrary
signals develop. The identification of trend, both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500
Index, is the primary intention of our process and an array of indicators are used as confirming evidence.
About the Analyst: Ari Wald, CFA, CMT began his career at Brown Brothers Harriman and was a
member of their accomplished Equity Strategy Research team for 8 years. Ari was nominated for “Best
Bank Equity Research and Strategy” in The Technical Analyst Awards 2013.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 18 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RESEARCH LIBRARY
Access to all of our reports can be found in the Technical Analysis Research Library.
Date Report Title
Tickers
6-Feb-14
VIX Spike is Bullish, Now Monitoring for a Less-Intense Low
STI, FAST
4-Feb-14
Hints of a Turn in CHRW's Relative Trend
CHRW
30-Jan-14
Audio Brief: February 2014
PSX, NU, FTR, HUBG, ALK, ABX
28-Jan-14
Utility Stocks with the Best Structure to Bounce
NU, NEE, EXC, SO
23-Jan-14
Gold Stocks over Gold
AAPL, DOX, EMR, HFC
21-Jan-14
Trading the Freight Transports
JBHT, HUBG, KSU
16-Jan-14
Sector Rotation Contributing to a Healthy Bull Market
INTC, RF, BSX
14-Jan-14
In an Extended Market, Buy the Fresh Relative Turns
AZO, SHW
8-Jan-14
Quarterly Roadmap: Top Technical Trends for Q1'14
-
19-Dec-13
Buy GS Before Leaving for Holiday Break
GS, LM, DE, OSK
17-Dec-13
Railroads in Review
CP, KSU, CNI, GWR, CSX, WAB
12-Dec-13
Introducing our S&I Seasonal Ranks (The Case for INTC)
INTC
10-Dec-13
Airlines Finding Support, Buy the Dip
ALK, CPA, DAL, UAL, AAL/LCC
5-Dec-13
Bonds Could Compete with Stocks in 2014
AAPL, WLP, HUM
3-Dec-13
KR: Using the 1990's Roadmap
KR
26-Nov-13
Stick with these Utility Breakouts: AEE, GXP
AEE, GXP, HE, NRG
21-Nov-13
Here's What the Bulls Aren't Telling You
AZO, DNB
19-Nov-13
CP Set to Play Catch-Up vs. KSU
CP, KSU, GWR
14-Nov-13
Q4 has been an Opportunity to Buy Semis
TXN, MCHP, RBCN, VECO
12-Nov-13
Long/Short Utility Ideas
AWK, GXP, DTE, XEL, PPL, ETR
7-Nov-13
Buy These Steel Stocks, Sell Those Tax Loss Ideas
NUE, STLD, CMC, EQR, TDC, EW, EQIX, LEN, HMSY
5-Nov-13
CVS: Buying Any Post-EPS Dips
CVS
31-Oct-13
Spooked by a Rise in Bullish Sentiment
CL, DE, HAS, TRMB
29-Oct-13
Road & Rail Rotation Idea
GWR
24-Oct-13
The Bull/Bear Technical Case
NYT, DKS
22-Oct-13
Attractive Setups within Utilities
DUK, AEE
17-Oct-13
Technicals Point to a Rotation into Financials
MS, LM, UNM, AXP
15-Oct-13
Technical Breakout Alerts
CPA, LCC, CNI
10-Oct-13
Technical Bottoming Checklist is Close, Not Quite There
NBR, URS, SNDK, NVDA
8-Oct-13
Revisiting Ideas
FDX, CHRW, EXPD, DG, CNP, SO
3-Oct-13
Technical Buy Signal Triggered for Midcaps
NYT, MAS, MHK
1-Oct-13
Food & Staples Retailing Best of Consumer Staples
WFM, SWY, SPTN, WMT
26-Sep-13
Technicals + Large Dividend Increases + 5% FCF
XRX, ALTR, IR, NATR
25-Sep-13
Reports of Selective Breadth are Overstated
-
23-Sep-13
Uncovering Relative Strength in the Utility Sector
NRG, PEG, ED, PCG
19-Sep-13
Overlaying Technicals with the Stock Ideas Spreadsheet
CACI, APOL
18-Sep-13
Stocks for your Buy List
MS, GS
17-Sep-13
Alternatives to Buying XOM & AAPL
XOM, SLB, RDC, BHI, AAPL, TXN, NVDA, HLF, Gold
12-Sep-13
8 Breakouts from the Stock Idea Model (SIM)
UTHR, WYNN, OSK, EMR, ROK, SON, SEE, AGCO
11-Sep-13
S&P 500 Trading Insights
-
10-Sep-13
Trading Our Coverage
CSX, DG, CNP, SO
6-Sep-13
Sector-Neutral Pair Trades from the Capex Screen
VRSN, TDC, AES, EXC
3-Sep-13
Technically, DAL is Best of Airlines
DAL
29-Aug-13
Consumer Staples Trends to Avoid
PM, KO
27-Aug-13
Trading Our Coverage
D, EXPD, SWY
22-Aug-13
Breakout Picks
TXN, HRS, BRCD
20-Aug-13
Trading Our Coverage
FDX, WAB, CHRW
TECHNICAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
-
-
WolfeResearch.com
Page 19 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
DISCLOSURE SECTION
Analyst Certification:
The analyst of Wolfe Research, LLC primarily responsible for this research report whose name appears first on the front page
of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately
reflect the research analysts’ personal views about the subject securities or issuers and (ii) no part of the research analysts’
compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.
Important Disclosures:
Wolfe Research, LLC Research Disclosures:
Company:
Research Disclosures:
STI
None
FAST
None
Other Disclosures:
Wolfe Research, LLC Fundamental Stock Ratings Key:
Outperform (OP):
Peer Perform (PP):
Underperform (UP):
The security is projected to outperform analyst's industry coverage universe
over the next 12 months.
The security is projected to perform approximately in line with analyst's industry
coverage universe over the next 12 months.
The security is projected to underperform analyst's industry coverage universe
over the next 12 months.
Wolfe Research, LLC uses a relative rating system using terms such as Outperform, Peer Perform and Underperform (see
definitions above). Please carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Wolfe Research, LLC research. In addition, since
Wolfe Research, LLC research contains more complete information concerning the analyst’s views, please carefully read
Wolfe Research, LLC research in its entirety and not infer the contents from the ratings alone. In all cases, ratings (or
research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice and any investment decisions should be based upon
individual circumstances and other considerations.
Wolfe Research, LLC Sector Weighting System:
Market Overweight (MO):
Market Weight (MW):
Market Underweight (MU):
Expect the industry to outperform the primary market index for the region (S&P
500 in the U.S.) by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
Expect the industry to perform approximately in line with the primary market
index for the region (S&P 500 in the U.S.) over the next 12 months.
Expect the industry to underperform the primary market index for the region
(S&P 500 in the U.S.) by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
Wolfe Research, LLC Distribution of Fundamental Stock Ratings (As of December 31, 2013):
Outperform:
Peer Perform:
Underperform:
WolfeResearch.com
44%
42%
14%
7% Investment Banking Clients
0% Investment Banking Clients
0% Investment Banking Clients
Page 20 of 21
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Wolfe Research, LLC does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks it covers. Outperform, Peer Perform and
Underperform are not the respective equivalents of Buy, Hold and Sell but represent relative weightings as defined above. To
satisfy regulatory requirements, Outperform has been designated to correspond with Buy, Peer Perform has been designated
to correspond with Hold and Underperform has been designated to correspond with Sell.
Wolfe Research Securities and Wolfe Research, LLC have adopted the use of Wolfe Research as brand names. Wolfe
Research Securities, a member of FINRA (www.finra.org) is the broker-dealer affiliate of Wolfe Research, LLC and is
responsible for the contents of this material. Any analysts publishing these reports are dually employed by Wolfe Research,
LLC and Wolfe Research Securities.
The content of this report is to be used solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as an offer, or a
solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell a security, financial instrument or service discussed herein. Opinions in this
communication constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date and time of this report and are subject to change
without notice. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Wolfe Research and its affiliates, including but not limited to
Wolfe Research Securities, makes no representation that it is complete or accurate. The information provided in this
communication is not designed to replace a recipient's own decision-making processes for assessing a proposed transaction
or investment involving a financial instrument discussed herein. Recipients are encouraged to seek financial advice from their
financial advisor regarding the appropriateness of investing in a security or financial instrument referred to in this report and
should understand that statements regarding the future performance of the financial instruments or the securities referenced
herein may not be realized. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report is not intended for distribution to,
or use by, any person or entity in any location where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law, or which
would subject Wolfe Research, LLC or any affiliate to any registration requirement within such location. For additional
important disclosures, please see www.WolfeResearch.com/Disclosures.
The views expressed in Wolfe Research, LLC research reports with regards to sectors and/or specific companies may from
time to time be inconsistent with the views implied by inclusion of those sectors and companies in other W olfe Research, LLC
analysts’ research reports and modeling screens. Wolfe Research communicates with clients across a variety of mediums of
the clients’ choosing including emails, voice blasts and electronic publication to our proprietary website.
Copyright © Wolfe Research, LLC 2014. All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically
indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Wolfe Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may
be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of W olfe
Research, LLC.
This report is limited for the sole use of clients of Wolfe Research. Authorized users have received an encryption decoder
which legislates and monitors the access to Wolfe Research, LLC content. Any distribution of the content produced by Wolfe
Research, LLC will violate the understanding of the terms of our relationship.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 21 of 21