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JULY 14, 2011 4:00 A.M.
Predicting the Soviet Collapse
Herb Meyer deduced from solid research what Ronald Reagan had deduced by
intuition.
I
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t was 20 years ago this summer that the final disintegration of the
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Soviet Union rapidly unfolded. In June 1991, Boris Yeltsin was freely
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elected president of the Russian Republic, with Mikhail Gorbachev
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clinging to power atop the precarious USSR. In August, Communist
hardliners attempted a dramatic coup against Gorbachev, prompting a
stunning succession of declarations of independence by Soviet
republics, with seven of them breaking away in August alone, and
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four more following through mid-December.
The writing was on the wall — not the Berlin Wall, which had
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collapsed two years earlier, but the graveyard of history, which would
VDH, Jonah, Jay, Rich,
soon register the USSR as deceased. It was December 25, 1991, the
Ramesh, Mona, S.E.,
day the West celebrates Christmas — a celebration the Communists
KLO, Andy, and dozens
had tried to ban — that Gorbachev announced his resignation, turning
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out the lights on an Evil Empire that had produced countless tens of
millions of corpses.
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Historians debate the credit that goes to various players for that
collapse, from Gorbachev to Ronald Reagan, Pope John Paul II,
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Margaret Thatcher, Lech Walesa, and Vaclav Havel, to name a few.
These are the people who get books written about them. But there
were many behind-the-scenes players who performed critical roles
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Mark Steyn: The Great
Charade
that have never seen the light of a historian’s word processor. Here I’d
like to note one such player: Herb Meyer. Specifically, I’d like to
highlight a fascinating memo Meyer wrote eight years before the
Soviet collapse.
Carl T. Bogus: A Liberal
Conservative Works
From 1981 to 1985, Meyer was special assistant to the director of
central intelligence, Bill Casey, and vice chairman of the CIA’s
Andrew C. McCarthy:
National Intelligence Council. In the fall of 1983, he crafted a
Bachmann Is Not the
classified memo titled, “Why Is the World So Dangerous?” Addressed
to Casey and the deputy director, John McMahon, it had a larger
Reads the Great
Radical in the Room
Jay Nordlinger: The
(though limited) audience within the intelligence community and the
hubris of O, &c.
Reagan administration, including President Reagan himself. Later, it
Robert Costa: Ryan
would earn Meyer the prestigious National Intelligence Distinguished
Urges ‘United Front’
Service Medal. Even so, the memo has eluded historians, which is a
Andrew Stiles: Debating
shame. It ought to rank among the most remarkable documents of the
the McConnell Plan
Cold War.
Victor Davis Hanson:
The Global Fairness
Madness
describing a “new stage” that had opened in the struggle between the
Elliott Abrams: The
free world and the Soviet Union. It was a “direction favorable” to the
Late Show
United States. He listed positive changes in America that suddenly
Michael Barone: What
the Debt-Limit Battle Is
had the USSR “downbeat.” Not only was the U.S. economy
“recovering,” but Meyer foresaw a “boom” ahead, “with the only
All About
argument” having to do with its “breadth and duration.”
Lacking Grace
Robert Costa & Andrew
Meyer listed seven signs of America’s surge before providing even
more symptoms of Soviet decline — a decline that was unrecognized
Stiles: Boehner: 'Get
by most pundits and academic Sovietologists. His insights into what
Ready'
he saw as an imminent Soviet collapse were prescient. After 66 years
Robert Costa: Cantor:
of Communist rule, the USSR had “failed utterly to become a
‘Not a Game’
country,” with “not one major nationality group that is content with
Larry Kudlow: A Good
the present, Russian-controlled arrangement.” It was “hard to imagine
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how the world’s last empire can survive into the twenty-first century
Thomas S. Hibbs:
except under highly favorable conditions of economics and
demographics — conditions that do not, and will not, exist.”
Memento Harry
Paul Kengor: Predicting
the Soviet Collapse
“The Soviet economy,” Meyer insisted, “is heading toward calamity.”
Kathryn Jean Lopez:
Meyer nailed not only the Soviet Union’s economy but also its
Detoxing the Dorm
“demographic nightmare.” Here, he was way ahead of the curve,
Michelle Malkin: A
reporting compelling information on Russian birthrates, which were in
Christian Business in the
free-fall. He recorded an astounding figure: Russian women,
Left’s Crosshairs
“according to recent, highly credible research,” “average six
abortions.”
Interview: Americans’
Bad Romances
Charles Krauthammer:
As for the Soviet Bloc, Meyer didn’t miss that either. “The East
Robert Bryce: Shale
European satellites are becoming more and more difficult to control,”
he wrote, emphasizing that it wasn’t merely Poland that was in revolt.
and its Discontents
“[O]ther satellites may be closer to their own political boiling points
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Meyer began his eight-page memo of November 30, 1983, by
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than we realize.”
“In sum,” concluded Meyer, “time is not on the Soviet Union’s side.”
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JULY 14, 2011 4:00 A.M.
Predicting the Soviet Collapse
(Page 2 of 2)
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He summed up with two predictions, nearly identically worded, as if
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to let the reader know he knew the magnitude of what he was saying:
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(1) “if present trends continue, we’re going to win the Cold War;” and
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(2) “if present trends continue we will win.” He quoted President
Reagan’s May 1981 Notre Dame speech, where Reagan proclaimed
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that history would dismiss Soviet Communism as “some bizarre
chapter in human history whose last pages are even now being
written.” Meyer felt that Reagan was “absolutely correct,” adding that
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the USSR was “entering its final pages.” His memo projected a
window no longer than 20 years.
Join Mark Steyn, Fred
Thompson, John Bolton,
Herb Meyer was dead on. I know of no other Cold War document as
VDH, Jonah, Jay, Rich,
accurate as this one.
Ramesh, Mona, S.E.,
KLO, Andy, and dozens
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-------------------------------------------------
I recently talked to Meyer about his memo. He had no idea it had been
declassified until someone sent it to him last month. “I was
astonished,” Meyer wrote me in an e-mail, “and it’s a weird feeling to
read something you’d written decades ago and hadn’t seen since.”
Meyer remembered well certain elements of the memo, particularly
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the Cold War predictions. He also had not forgotten the memo’s
reception. Within the intelligence community, there was a general
feeling that Meyer had lost his mind. That was just the start of the
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backlash.
Mark Steyn: The Great
The memo was leaked to syndicated columnists Evans & Novak, who
Charade
devoted a column to it. There was subsequent uproar throughout
Carl T. Bogus: A Liberal
Washington, which made Meyer very nervous. He was summoned to
Reads the Great
his boss’s office.
“Herb, right now you’ve got the smallest fan club in Washington,”
Bachmann Is Not the
Bill Casey told him grimly. As Meyer turned pale, Casey laughed:
Radical in the Room
“Relax. It’s me and the president.”
Andrew Stiles: Debating
the McConnell Plan
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Today, Meyer says with a chuckle: “If you’re going to have a small
fan club — that’s it.”
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Scream.
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Jay Nordlinger: The
hubris of O, &c.
CIA director Casey, like President Reagan, was committed to placing
Robert Costa: Ryan
a dagger in the chest of Soviet Communism. He was pleased, and he
Urges ‘United Front’
encouraged Meyer. Meyer recalls: “My orders were, in effect, to keep
Victor Davis Hanson:
going.”
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The Global Fairness
Madness
Meyer particularly remembers Reagan’s being shaken by the
Nat Brown: Measuring
statement about Russian women averaging six abortions. To Meyer’s
Media Bias
knowledge, Reagan “never went public with that astounding statistic. .
Elliott Abrams: The
. . Come to think of it, no one — except some Russians — ever talked
about it.”
Late Show
Dennis Prager: Big
Government Means
Small People
Rich Lowry: Against the
Of all the items in the memo, that one remains the most far-reaching.
Demographers today foresee Russia plummeting in population from
150 million to possibly 100 million by 2050. Meyer’s memo is a
Balanced-Budget
prophetic warning that isn’t finished. For Russians, the internal
Amendment
implosion isn’t over.
Michael Barone: What
the Debt-Limit Battle Is
All About
Laura Ingraham:
Lacking Grace
Robert Costa: DeMint
on the Debt Ceiling
Robert Costa: Cantor:
‘Not a Game’
Robert Costa & Andrew
Stiles: Boehner: 'Get
Ready'
Larry Kudlow: A Good
Debt-Ceiling Deal
Thomas S. Hibbs:
Memento Harry
Iain Murray: It’s for the
Children
When we look back at the Cold War, we remember big names and big
statements and documents. There’s nary a college course on the Cold
War that excludes George Kennan’s seminal “Long Telegram,” sent
from the U.S. embassy in Moscow in February 1946. Kennan’s memo
prophetically captured what the free world faced from the USSR at the
start of the Cold War, forecasting a long struggle ahead. Herb Meyer’s
November 1983 memo likewise prophetically captured what the free
world faced from the USSR, but this time nearing the end of the Cold
War, uniquely forecasting a long struggle about to close — with
victory.
George Kennan’s memo is remembered in our textbooks and our
college lectures. Herb Meyer’s memo merits similar treatment.
— Paul Kengor is professor of political science at Grove City College.
His books include The Crusader: Ronald Reagan and the Fall of
Communism and the newly released Dupes: How America’s
Adversaries Have Manipulated Progressives for a Century.
Kathryn Jean Lopez:
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