CENTRE FOR
DEMOCRACY AND DEVELOPMENT
Nigerian Political Parties: From Failed
Opposition Electoral Alliance to Merger:
The March Towards the 2015 General
Elections
Jibrin Ibrahim & Idayat Hassan
Copyright ©Centre Democracy Development 2014
Nigerian Political Parties: From Failed Opposition Electoral Alliance to Merger:
The March Towards the 2015 General Elections
Nigerian Political Parties: From Failed
Opposition Electoral Alliance to Merger:
The March Towards the 2015 General
Elections
By
Jibrin Ibrahim and Idayat Hassan
November 2013
Nigerian Political Parties: From Failed Opposition Electoral Alliance to Merger:
The March Towards the 2015 General Elections
Introduction
I
n preparation for the 2015
general elections of Nigeria,
the four biggest opposition
parties, the Action Congress of
Nigeria (ACN), All Nigerian
Peoples Party (ANPP), the
Congress for Progressive
Change and a faction of the All
Progressive Grand Alliance
(APGA) merged to form the All
Progressive Congress (APC).
This is the first successful merger
in the history of Nigerian
political parties. The merger
reflects the determination of the
opposition to wrestle power
f ro m t h e r u l i n g Pe o p l e'
Democratic Party (PDP). The
PDP has been the ruling party
since the country's return to
democracy in 1999. The party
presently control 23 states out of
Nigeria's 36 states and has been
in power at the centre since
1
1999. Previous attempts by Nigerian
opposition parties to form alliances
to oust the PDP led government from
power, since 1999 have recorded
dismal failure mostly as a result of
individual differences of the lead
protagonists in these political parties,
their inability to agree on sharing of
positions and ethnic, regional and
religious differences. However, with
the rising poverty, insecurity and
other challenges bedevilling the
Nigerian state, Nigerian politics
needs a new lease of life and the
merger by the opposition might
become a game changer in the
political process. The country is
however still two years away from the
2015 general elections and the
political process is still unfolding.
This paper sets out to analyse the
process of political recomposition in
the lives of Nigeria's political parties
in the build up to the 2015 general
elections. We examine the numerous
attempts by opposition parties to
establish alliances to oust
incumbent parties and we show
that most of these attempts have
failed. We also show that the failure
of the opposition parties in the 2011
elections to form an alliance and
the negative impact of their
participation in the elections with
three different opposition leaders
contesting for the presidency
provided useful lessons which
might account for their success in
making the quantum leap of the
opposition leaders merging into
one political party in 2013, in
preparation for the 2015 elections.
We also pose questions on whether
the opposition parties have an
alternative agenda for good
governance as they prepare
themselves for the epic political
battle expected in 2015. In other
words, we interrogate whether the
process of political recomposition
as evidenced in the APC Merger
would promote the consolidation
of Nigerian democracy.
Party Politics and
Democratisation: The
Nigerian Experience
S
ince 1999, Nigeria has
operated a one party
dominant political system
in which the ruling party at the
national level controls
enormous resources compared
to the others. At the beginning
of the Fourth Republic, only
three political parties were
registered, but a decision by the
Supreme Court transformed the
party system by allowing for the
liberalisation of the regime and
many more par ties were
registered. There are three
categories of political parties
the dominant party on its own,
parties with parliamentar y
representation and the other
small parties most of which were
established as possible
platforms for impor tant
politicians that lose out in the
bigger parties or to access
resources from the electoral
management body. Parties with
executive seats are tightly
controlled by the President and
State Governors, and party
leadership is at the beck and call
of these executives who can
change them at will. The
President is the leader of the
dominant party although a
party chairman exists and state
governors are the leaders of
their party at that level.
Overall, the liberalisation of the
party system did not
significantly change the nature
of political parties. Nigerian parties
are run by godfathers and barons
rather than members, and they have
clientelist networks that are used by
the party barons to “deliver” crowds
for rallies and party congresses.
Indeed, parties tend to treat their
members with disdain and utter
disrespect. Consequently, the
political relationship within the
parties is essentially one between
patrons and clients and the clients
are mobilised on pecuniary, ethnic or
by whatever name called shall
function as a political party,
unless:
(a)
The names and
addresses of its national officers
a re re g i s t e re d w i t h t h e
Independent National Electoral
Commission;
(b)
The membership of the
association is open to every
citizen of Nigeria irrespective of
his place of origin, circumstance
However, with the rising poverty, insecurity and other challenges
bedevilling the Nigerian state, Nigerian politics needs a new lease of
life and the merger by the opposition might become a game changer
in the political process.
regional basis.
The registration and operations of
political parties and governed by
constitutional provisions. Section
222 of the Constitution specifically
restricts the qualification of a political
party to organisations registered by
the Independent National Electoral
Commission under the stringent
conditions stipulated by Sections 221
229 of the Constitution. Section 229
of the 1999 Constitution defines
political party thus: “Political party
includes any association whose
activities include canvassing for
votes in support of a candidate for
election to the office of President,
Vice President, Governor, Deputy
Governor or membership of a
legislative house or of a local
government council. It is therefore a
very narrow definition that reduces
the essence of political parties to
canvassing for votes. Section 222 of
the 1999 Constitution specifies the
conditions under which an
association can function as a political
party. It states that “No association
of birth, sex, religion or ethnic
grouping;
(c)
A copy of its
constitution is registered in the
principal office of the
Independent National Electoral
Commission in such form as
may be prescribed by the
Independent National Electoral
Commission;
(d)
Any alteration in its
registered constitution is also
registered in the principal office
of the Independent National
Electoral Commission within
thirty days of the making of such
alteration;
(e)
the name of the
association, its symbol or logo
does not contain any ethnic or
religious connotation or give
the appearance that the
activities of the association are
confined to a part only of the
geographical area of Nigeria;
(f)
The headquarters of
the association is situated in the
2
Criminal Justice System in West Africa
Nigerian Political Parties: From Failed Opposition Electoral Alliance to Merger:
The March Towards the 2015 General Elections
Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
The effects of all these is that
parties that emerged during the
Second Republic and the first
phase of the Fourth Republic
needed to be very big and
capable of controlling a
significant region at least.
Competition in Nigeria's party
system until this year has been
very intense within the ruling
party and less so between the
political parties. This is due to
the fact that since 1979, Nigeria
has developed the tradition of
major blocs of the political elite
coalescing into a single political
party conceived as a hegemonic
party. In elections that are
relatively free and fair, namely,
the 1959, 1979 and 1999
elections, the parties that had
the highest votes, the Northern
Peoples' Congress, the National
Party of Nigeria and the Peoples'
Democratic Party failed in their
desire to be hegemonic or
dominant through the polls. In
the subsequent elections of
1964, 1983 and 2003, they all
abused their incumbency
powers to transform themselves
into dominant par ties. In
essence, they used electoral
fraud to boast their control of
the political process and weaken
opposition parties. Competitive
party politics is thus weak as the
ruling parties have often falsified
the electoral game while the
parties in opposition hove too
narrow a political base and
i n s u f f i c i e n t re s o u rc e s t o
effectively compete for power.
In the 2011 general elections, the
competition for the presidency
of Nigeria was between three
36
major candidates and political
parties. They are:
Incumbent Goodluck
Jonathan - People Democratic Party
(PDP);
Muhammadu Buhari
Congress for Political Change (CPC);
and
Nuhu Ribadu
Action
Congress of Nigeria (ACN)
At the polls, the PDP polled
22,495,187 after winning from 24 out
of the 36 states and FCT. This was
followed by the CPC who polled
12,214,853. The ACN came third with
We have mentioned above that
party membership is ephemeral as
people engage the political
process as patrons or as clients.
This means the attachment of
people is not really to political
par ties but to patrons or
godfathers who pay for their
engagement. The implication of
this is that participation in political
party activities is mediated by
political bosses to whom people
owe allegiance. Party life is most
active around election time and
patrons and godfathers engage in
Indeed, parties tend to treat their members with disdain and utter
disrespect. Consequently, the political relationship within the parties is
essentially one between patrons and clients and the clients are
mobilised on pecuniary, ethnic or regional basis
2,079,151. In terms of the National
Assembly, the PDP won over 60% of
elected representative and senators
in the National Assembly leaving the
other political parties to share the
remaining seats among themselves.
The important thing about the 2011
elections was the marked
improvement in the integrity of the
elections and the significant
reduction of electoral fraud. The
Attahiru Jega led INEC has shown a
capacity to continuously improve the
conduct of elections in the country
and move towards free, fair and
credible elections. If this tendency is
sustained, the competitiveness of
political parties will receive a boost
and the political class will begin to
believe that it is possible to get to
power without being the candidate
of the ruling party. In other words,
party competition will gradually
become real.
party activity to obtain nomination
and elections for themselves or
their surrogates. When they fail to
obtain the position, they tend to
move out with their clients to other
p a r t i e s i n s e a r c h of n e w
opportunities. In Nigeria therefore,
both for the patrons and their
clients, adherence to political
par ties is ver y fluid and
opportunistic. It is also true that
many people own multiple party
cards as they seek to be invited to
as many party congresses as
possible where the tradition is to
pay participants for their votes.
Such people therefore move from
party to party in search of
opportunity.
The ideology question and the
left/right divide have largely
disappeared from Nigerian political
parties so conflicts are focused on
the issue of personalities, ethnic
groups, geopolitical zones and
the control of power. And yet,
ideology matters in Nigeria.
Nigerians are profoundly
opposed to the liberal economic
policy articulated and imposed
on the country by the Bretton
Woods institutions. Political
parties can therefore articulate
this vision but they don't. The
Constitution requires that all
political parties draw their
manifestoes from Chapter Two
of the Constitution on Directive
Principles of State Policy. That
section of the Constitution
places a lot of obligation on the
state to provide for the welfare of
citizens. It is virtually a social
democratic manifesto. Party
manifestos however elicit little
interest or debate because the
parties simply provide them to
satisfy a constitutional
obligation. The key challenge for
political party development is
therefore to bring issue based
politics back to the agenda.
During the Second Republic for
example, the UPN was known for
its commitment to free
education, the NPN for its
housing policy and the PRP for
its opposition to taxing the
peasantry. It is difficult today to
associate any issue with any
political party. The motivation for
engagement in party activities in
Nigeria today is simple power
and money. The motivation for
political contest is dominance
and control not ideology of
issues.
1978 is that they have a persistent
tendency to factionalise and
fractionalise. As people go into
politics to seek power and money, the
battle for access is very intense and
destructive. Thugs, violence and
betrayal are often the currency for
political party engagement. Indeed,
the period leading to each election is
marked by the assassination of party
leaders and contestants for various
offices. The reality in the political field
is that many political parties are
essentially operated by political
'godfathers' who use money and
violence to control the political
process. They decide on party
nominations and campaign
outcomes and when candidates try
to steer an independent course,
violence becomes an instrument to
deal with them. The result is that they
raise the level of electoral violence
and make free and fair elections
difficult. Although parties have
formal procedures for the election of
their leaders, these procedures are
often disregarded; when they are
adhered to, the godfathers have
means of determining the outcomes.
The level of violence, thuggery, and
monetization of Nigerian politics
provides a significant disincentive for
women to take par t as
candidates, and the
monetization aspect also makes
young people less likely to
influence politics in an effective
way due to their lower level of
access to resources (see Ezeilo
2012).
Democratisation is a process of
instituting a government based
on electing popular
representatives. The primary
objective of democratisation is
popular par ticipation in
decisions affecting lives (Aluko,
1989). Democratisation
therefore is appreciated by
most regimes to the point that
even authoritarian regimes lay
claim to semblance of
democratisation. However, the
Nigerian experience has shown
that many of its citizens do not
classify the country's status as
democratic but rather refer to it
as civil rule. The questions
persistently raised include: how
many parties do meet the
yearnings and aspirations of the
people? Many buttress this view
with the assertion 'all the noise
about democracy and
Civility is one quality that is
largely absent in political party
life. The most important aspect
of the internal functioning of
political parties in Nigeria since
4
Nigerian Political Parties: From Failed Opposition Electoral Alliance to Merger:
The March Towards the 2015 General Elections
democratisation from political
parties is a myth', adding that
party politics turns government
to tyranny and the political
parties lay claim to
democratisation as a propelling
factor for justification of their
actions. On a closer
examination, this assertion is
true as the common currency of
political party engagement in
Nigeria has solely been
competitive elections without
reduction of bias in interest
representation. For a
multicultural society, political
parties in the country are yet to
move beyond the symbolism of
election to representation of
social divisions in structuring
political conflicts thereby
contributing to the
consolidation of democracy in
the country. It is against this
background of a one party
dominant system that we will
examine the evolution of
electoral alliance, subsequently
the emergence of merger of
opposition parties in their quest
to change the political equation
in the country. We will also offer
our reflections on the impact of
this political recomposition on
the consolidation of democracy
in Nigeria. This work will adopt
Kadima (2006) definition of
Alliances as the coming
together of at least two political
parties prior to an election in
order to maximize their votes
while a Merger
is the
integration of a minimum of two
political parties into one single
political party and as regulated
under Nigerian laws,
after
1
forming a merger, such political
par ties would approach
Independent National Electoral
1
Commission (INEC) for registration
with the identity of that association
they have coalesced into thereby
forfeting their individual identities.
Political Party Alliances in Nigeria
I
n the quest for political power,
political parties are sometimes
constrained to enter into alliances
with similar ambitions to improve
their chances of success in elections.
During the First Republic in 19601966, the country operated a
parliamentary political system in
which you had government parties
on the one hand and the opposition
on the other. The elections of 1964
were characterised by the
establishment of grand alliances by
both the ruling and opposition
parties. The ruling party, the
N o r t h e r n Pe o p l e s C o n g re s s
established an alliance called the
Nigerian National Alliance (NNA)
with the Niger Delta Congress, New
Nigerian Democratic Party and the
Midwest Democratic Front. The
with similar ambitions to improve
their chances of success in
elections. During the First Republic
in 1960-1966, the country operated
a parliamentary political system in
which you had government parties
on the one hand and the
opposition on the other. The
elections of 1964 were
characterised by the establishment
of grand alliances by both the
ruling and opposition parties. The
ruling party, the Northern Peoples
Congress established an alliance
called the Nigerian National
Alliance (NNA) with the Niger Delta
Congress, New Nigerian
Democratic Party and the Midwest
Democratic Front. The opposition
parties stabled a counter alliance
known as the United Progressive
Grand Alliance (UPGA) with the
National Council of Nigerian
Citizens, the Action Group and the
Northern Progressive Front. The
ruling party used its incumbency
power to make it very difficult for
the opposition alliance to
campaign and they boycotted the
elections see B. J. Dudley, 1968:264.
The elections were marked by very
high levels of fraud and lacked
credibility leading to political crisis
and the collapse of the First
Civility is one quality that is largely absent in political party life. The
most important aspect of the internal functioning of political parties in
Nigeria since 1978 is that they have a persistent tendency to
factionalise and fractionalise
Political Party Alliances in Nigeria
In the quest for political power,
political parties are sometimes
constrained to enter into alliances
Republic through a military coup.
During the Second Republic, the
ruling National Party of Nigeria was
Section 222-225 1999 constitution of Nigeria as amended and section 85 of the electoral act 2010 as amended.
5
able to encourage the
establishment of splinter groups
within the opposition parties
that allied with it while the
opposition parties had great
difficulties in establishing a
formal pre-electoral alliance.
Since the return of democracy in
1999, the Nigerian state has had
PDP as a dominant political
party as indicated above, with
All Nigerian Peoples Party
(ANPP), Action Congress of
Nigeria (ACN), Congress for
Progressive Change (CPC), All
Progressive Grand Alliance
(APGA), Labour Party (LP),
Progressive People Alliance,
(PPA) as the main parties
opposing the government.
There are currently 25 registered
political parties in Nigeria, which
presupposes the opening up of
the political space for
democratic opportunities and
development, however, the
Nigerian experience has shown
that such political space is yet to
be exploited and utilised as
other political parties are neither
seen nor heard or, better put,
are 'briefcase parties' for
politicians fleeing mainstream
party when they are denied
political tickets.
The first experience of preelectoral alliance was in 1999
when the defunct All Peoples
Party (APP) and the defunct
Alliance of Democracy (AD)
formed an alliance to contest
the presidential election with
Chief Olu Falae of the AD as the
presidential flag bearer while Umaru
Shinkafi of the All Peoples Party (APP)
as running mate. However, the
alliance of these parties failed to
achieve the parties desired objective
of capturing power, and was only
able to garner a total of 37 percent of
the total votes cast as against the
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP),
under retired General Olusegun
Obasanjo's, which got 63 percent of
the votes to emerge as the winner of
the presidential election. The alliance
collapsed immediately after the
elections.
The first experience of pre-electoral
winner of the presidential
election. The alliance collapsed
immediately after the elections.
The situation in 2003 was less
clear. It was alleged that
President Olusegun Obasanjo
entered into an alliance or pact
with the opposition Southwest
AD governors to help his reelection for a second term. The
basis of the alliance was ethnic
solidarity. During the run up to
the 2003 elections, the leaders of
the AD in the South West had an
accord with the then presidential
standard bearer of the PDP,
Olusegun Obasanjo, for the
The first experience of pre-electoral alliance was in 1999 when the
defunct All Peoples Party (APP) and the defunct Alliance of Democracy
(AD) formed an alliance to contest the presidential election with Chief
Olu Falae of the AD as the presidential flag bearer while Umaru
Shinkafi of the All Peoples Party (APP) as running mate.
alliance was in 1999 when the defunct
All Peoples Party (APP) and the
2
defunct Alliance of Democracy (AD)
formed an alliance to contest the
presidential election with Chief Olu
Falae of the AD as the presidential
flag bearer while Umaru Shinkafi of
the All Peoples Party (APP) as running
mate. However, the alliance of these
parties failed to achieve the parties
desired objective of capturing power,
and was only able to garner a total of
37 percent of the total votes cast as
against the Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP), under retired General
Olusegun Obasanjo's, which got 63
percent of the votes to emerge as the
2003 presidential election that
the AD in solidarity with
Obasanjo will not field any
presidential candidate. In
exchange, the PDP will allow the
AD governors to have a smooth
sail in their re-election bid. The
pact allowed the ruling the PDP
machiner y to win the
p re s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n . I n
addition, the ruling party also
won five of the six governorship
posts in the South so the
governors who entered into the
pact lost their elections in what
is still considered the most
stupid alliance in Nigeria's
2
A splinter group emerging out of the AD became the Action Congress
6
Nigerian Political Parties: From Failed Opposition Electoral Alliance to Merger:
The March Towards the 2015 General Elections
Criminal Justice System in West Africa
political history. Only the Lagos
State Governor who rejected the
alliance retained his seat3.
In 2007, following former Vice
President Atiku Abubakar's loss
of the presidential ticket of the
PDP, talks to form an alliance
between AD, ANPP and a
splinter group from the PDP to
contest the 2007 presidential
elections began. These talks
failed as agreement could not
be reached on the presidential
flag bearer of the proposed
alliance due to individual
differences of the protagonists
in persons of retired General
Mohammand Buhari and Vice
President Atiku Abubakar.
Nevertheless, what materialised
was the formation of the Action
Congress with the former Vice
President Atiku as the flag
bearer in the 2007 elections. A
cursory look at the voting
pattern in this election reveals
the PDP garnered almost 70
percent, ANPP approximately 19
percent with the AC 7 percent of
the total votes making third. In
fact, the total of the opposition
3
votes of all the 17 other presidential
candidates during this election was a
mere 30.18 per cent as against the
PDP's 69.82.
The 1999, 2003 and 2007 general
elections reaffirmed the dominance
of the Peoples Democratic Party in
the Nigerian political landscape and
on this basis the opposition parties
comprising the ANPP, ACN, and CPC
attempted to form an alliance as a
formidable opposition in the 2011
elections. The parties failed in
forming the alliance for reasons
connected to the fragmented party
system obtainable in Nigeria where
political parties with different
interests come together to form the
opposition. The decisive issue was
the failure to agree on the person
that shall be the presidential flag
bearer. Other issues were the effects
of ethno-regionalism and the
success of the dominant party in
intimidating many members of the
opposition. In 2011, rather than the
opposition parties serving as an
alternative, they were weakened by
their internal discord, making it
easier for the PDP to further
dominate the political space.
Eventually the three candidates in
the persons of Alhaji Ibrahim
Shekarau, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu
and General Muhammadi Buhari all
contested the election and on the
platforms of the ANPP, ACN and
CPC, respectively.
Challenges of Electoral Alliances
within the Opposition Parties
S
ince the country's transition
from military rule in 1999, the
ruling People's Democratic
Party has won all the presidential
elections held. The opposition has
not been able to muster enough
political clout to win major elections
as a result of several challenges,
one of the most critical being the
lack of a clear ideological basis for
establishing the alliance. This has
created the belief among citizens
that the opposition alliances are
formed by political parties mainly
to seek power and not to establish
an alternative agenda for good
governance. This reinforces the
tendencies of electorate to elect
parties into office based on the
personalities of party leaders rather
than party manifestoes and policy
options, ultimately amplifying voter
disenchantment over the lack of
AD controlled the six South Western States of Ondo, Osun, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti and Lagos then.
Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu of the ACN was accused of betraying his party' presidential candidate, Mallam Nuhu
Ribadu, by a last minute visit to President Goodluck Jonathan on a private jet. While Asiwaju has consistently denied
this allegation, the fact that he lost his ward, Bourdillon, to the opposition PDP when a week before, during the National
Assembly elections, ACN won in the ward is used to justify the party's alleged betrayal of its own candidate.
Furthermore, a week after the Presidential elections, ACN won the gubernatorial election in same ward. Worse, as a
party leader, he subsequently joined President Goodluck Jonathan at the Obudu Ranch in Cross River State for a retreat
to discuss position sharing at the centre. Tinubu flown to Abuja in presidential jet to negotiate with Jonathan,
Wednesday, 13 April 2011 http://www.elombah.com/index.php/photo-video/6192-tinubu-flown-to-abuja-inpresidential-jet-v15-6192 Bola Tinubu's Interview: We Supported Jonathan Win 2011 Election,
http://nigeriavillagesquare.com/s-njokede/bola-tinubus-interview-we-supported-jonathan-win-2011-election.html
4
7
true party alternatives.
Another critical challenge facing
opposition parties, and in effect
electoral alliances in Nigeria, has
been the abuse of the power of
incumbency. Utilising state
resources, including finances,
media, security agencies and
government paraphernalia,
ruling parties in the country
have been able to retain power.
For instance, in the 2011
elections, public resources were
used to buy adverts in the name
of government agencies and
entities for the ruling parties.
There was also the use of
government aircrafts, vehicles,
personnel and media. Media
time allocated candidates differ
according to the media houses:
state controlled media,
allocated more coverage to
certain parties than others. For
example, the Nigerian Television
Authority (NTA) turned down a
paid television commercial
featuring Malam Ibrahim
Shekarau, presidential
candidate of the All Nigeria
People's Party (ANPP) based on
his closing remarks in the NN24
presidential debate where he
detailed his famous 'Six
C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of G o o d
Governance'. The CPC also
alleged that the Federal Radio
Corporation of Nigeria (FRCN)
refused to air the radio jingles of their
presidential candidate, Muhammadu
Buhari. In general, most of the state
governors completely barred their
state media from carrying messages
from opposition parties and their
candidates.
There have been allegations that in
the 2003, 2007 and 2011 general
elections that the ruling party PDP
deployed the use of state security
personnel and political thugs to rig
elections to its favour. Prior to the
2011 general elections, adjudged as
an improvement on previous
elections held in the country, the
body, the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC)
has been accused of playing a
par tisan role in the
electioneering process. Taking
the 2007 elections as an
6
example , Prof. Iwu's elections
management was one of a kind
as he went as far as disqualifying
candidates such as the former
Vice President Atiku Abubakar,
Senator Ifeanyi Araruame, and
Abia State Governor T.A. Orji,
etc, exercising a power not
conferred upon him nor INEC by
7
any known law . The impact of
Since the country's transition from military rule in 1999, the ruling
People's Democratic Party has won all the presidential elections held.
The opposition has not been able to muster enough political clout to
win major elections as a result of several challenges, one of the most
critical being the lack of a clear ideological basis for establishing the
alliance.
There have been allegations that in
the 2003, 2007 and 2011 general
elections that the ruling party PDP
deployed the use of state security
personnel and political thugs to rig
elections to its favour5. Prior to the
2011 general elections, adjudged as
an improvement on previous
elections held in the country, the
Nigerian electoral management
Iwu's brazenness still lingers in
t h e p o l i t y. W h i l e w e
acknowledge the improvement
in the electoral system, the May
2013 elections into the Nigerian
Governors Forum, even though
just a political pressure group, is
a cause for concern as the
governors could not agree on
an election involving only 35 of
5
For example, the Labour Party alleged that PDP planned to use military personnel and the police to change the will of the
people in election - See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/03/ondo-lp-pdp-accuse-each-other-of-plans-to-rigapril-elections/#sthash.RccwQGP4.dpuf
6
The 2007 election was said to be a grand deception and referred to by many as a direct capture of the People' mandate. INEC
did a very shoddy job, pre-arrangement for the elections was nothing to write home about, and the so-called electronic data
capture was used to short-change the people. The whole registration exercise is a big sham. INEC is an integral part of the
PDP and everything was done by it to make that PDP win the election at all cost against the wish of the people, thereby giving
vent to the do or die tactics in the run up to the 2007 election.
7
It took the intervention of the Court before these candidates were re enlisted as contestant for the elections. The Supreme
Court ruled that INEC has no constitutional power to disqualify candidates fielded by parties. Atiku Abubakar v INEC
8
Criminal Justice System in West Africa
Nigerian Political Parties: From Failed Opposition Electoral Alliance to Merger:
The March Towards the 2015 General Elections
their members bringing forth a
situation where the group of 16
governors argued they had
more members than the the
group of 19 governors. The
governors election conducted
on 24th May 2013 had Governor
Rotimi Ameachi of Rivers State
defeating his Plateau
counterpart Jonah Jang by 19
votes to 16. However, the 16
governors led by the Chairman
of the PDP Governors Forum,
and Akwa Ibom State Governor,
Godswill Akpabio, protested the
results arguing that they stood
by the pre-election
arrangement where the PDP
governors endorsed Jonah Jang
as their candidate and created a
parallel body of governors
forum. This is a dangerous
signal as 2015 draws closer.
As argued earlier in this work,
the proliferation of political
parties weakens the ability of
opposition parties to serve as
formidable alternatives to the
r u l i n g p a r t y. Ta k i n g t h e
presidential elections of 2007
earlier discussed serves as an
example, with the 18 opposition
par ties altogether only
garnering a mere 30.18 per cent
as against the PDP's 69.82. From
a political economy point of
view, the economic weakness of the
opposition reflects in the prevailing
culture of party politics whereby
members of the opposition decamp
easily to the ruling party. Rather than
the opposition party members work
for the success of their party, they
enter into arrangements with ruling
parties for monetary gains or
positions sharing in the centre. This
was at the centre of the allegation
that ACN chieftain Bola Tinubu
worked against his party ACN in the
2011 election, that he was paid huge
sums of money for betraying his own
party. Beyond the political economy,
the nature of elite formation, party
ideologies, fractured or
institutionalised political parties, are
major challenges that have affected
political parties' coalition since the
return of democracy in 1999. The
activities of godfathers in political
parties have transformed
contemporary political sphere in
Nigeria from one of service oriented
politics towards the people to one
completely dominated by selfinterest.
This highly influential
individual ( i.e. godfather) directly
monitors who does and who does
not get to stand for elections in their
parties thereby closing the political
space for eligible members while
reducing citizen participation to
mere voting9. All the aforementioned
have affected democratic
consolidation in the country making
the dividend of democracy in
forms of public goods and
services unattainable by the
.
masses
Democracy provides the
opportunities for the people to
freely exercise their voting rights
in the selection of
representatives who govern
them. Democracy depends on
parties to survive, since the
structure of elections right from
citizen par ticipation to
candidates' selection and
presentation of competing
political programs is done by
political parties. It is on this note
that political parties occupy a
special place in the democratic
equation. However, political
parties in Nigeria since the
return to democratic rule have
not been able to adequately
contribute to the consolidation
of democracy in the country,
rather they have been plagued
by crises of internal democracy
and have contributed to the
bifurcation of the country along
religious and ethnic lines. The
PDP remains the only party with
re s e m b l a n c e of n a t i o n a l
orientation, yet 14 years into the
new democratic dispensation as
the ruling party they have not
been able to address the major
NGF election: Governors jubilate as Amaechi emerges winner Punch May 25th, 2013
http://www.punchng.com/news/ngf-election-governors-jubilate-as-amaechi-emerges-winner
9
Late Chief Lamidi Adedibu often referred to as 'the strong man of Ibadan politics is one of the notable godfathers in
Nigerian history deposing elected officials at will. Adedibu was instrumental to the emergence of Rasheed Ladoja as the
governor of Oyo state in 2003 but upon a disagreement, Adedibu got him impeached by the State House of Assembly.
He was alleged to have rewarded the legislators with car gifts and publicly declared on National TV that he invested
into his elections and as such should benefit at least in the sharing of the security votes amidst other entitlement.
8
9
problems of its citizens.
The country is witnessing rising
insecurity in virtually all parts of
its federating units, from the
Southern geopolitical zones
plagued with armed robbery,
kidnapping, oil bunkering to the
rising insurgency of the Boko
Haram Islamist militants in the
Northern geopolitical zones of
the country with ethnic and
religious violence across the
c o u n t r y. T h e h u m a n
development index has
dropped drastically, in face of
rising economic growth of an
estimated 7.75 percent; poverty
level is at tremendous increase
of up to 69 percent. Dilapidated
i n f r a s t r u c t u r e s , p o w e r,
industrialisation and rising
unemployment rate, endemic
corruption, culture of impunity,
anarchy have fast become a
feature of the Nigerian state.
This has led to the
disenchantment of the citizens
of the country and politicians
and call for a change by the
citizenry. According to Isakpa
(2008): “If ruling politicians are
failing the people, it is the
responsibility of the opposition
to step in, in a credible, robust,
articulate, clear and coherent
manner, to provide alternative
policy options on how to deal with d e m o c r a c y v i a c h o i c e ,
the challenges that confront the representation, increased
country and the majority of the transparency, accountability and
Nigerian people”.
grants an option to voters to
identify alternative government.
However, pre-election alliances
This view clearly reflects the views of in Nigeria have not been able to
the majority of Nigerians and the represent this option, first, they
opposition at the moment. The 2013 are not formed by ideologically
merger of the four big opposition compatible parties. The building
parties comprising ACN, ANPP, CPC block between the merging
and Okorocha-led APGA into the All political parties so far is their
Progressive Congress (APC) is a mutual desire to oust the PDP
major new development in Nigerian from power. The second
politics. With this development, the challenge is always who gets
qualitative leap from alliance to what. In all the pre-electoral
merger in a single party is made. alliances since 1999, they have
While this may seem a welcome b e e n b o g g e d d o w n b y
development, the history of electoral bickering over who gets the
alliances since 1999 has shown that Presidential ticket. Opposition
acting in unison is difficult to sustain.
According to Isakpa (2008): “If ruling politicians are failing the people,
it is the responsibility of the opposition to step in, in a credible, robust,
articulate, clear and coherent manner, to provide alternative policy
options on how to deal with the challenges that confront the country
and the majority of the Nigerian people”.
Ordinarily, pre-election alliances are
a recipe for democratic
consolidation as it increases
democratic transparency, provides
the citizenry the opportunity to
enjoy the best elements of
majoritarian representative
parties in Nigerian democracy
have remained ineffective due
to their failure to establish
alliances that will give a strong
opposition to the ruling party.
All eyes are now on the newly
f o r m e d m e rg e r, t h e A l l
10
Nigeria Poverty Profile 2010 Report http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/uploads/latestRelease/
46e10622a9d47f73d5ea082c4ca7cc53bc734016.pdf 93.9% Nigerians poorNBS Vanguard , February 13th 2012
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/02/93-9-nigerians-considered-themselves-to-be-poor-nbs/ accessed on 8th
10
Criminal Justice System in West Africa
Nigerian Political Parties: From Failed Opposition Electoral Alliance to Merger:
The March Towards the 2015 General Elections
Progressive Congress (APC) will
provide a new narrative.
To w a r d s 2 0 1 5 ; t h e A l l
Progressive Congress
F
ourteen years into the
new democratic
experience in Nigeria, the
Peoples Democratic party 11
remains the dominant political
party, with All Nigerian Peoples
12
Party (ANPP) , Action Congress
13
of Nigeria (ACN) Congress for
14
Progressive Change (CPC) , All
Progressive Grand Alliance
15
16
(APGA) , Labour Party (LP) ,
Progressive People Alliance,
17
(PPA) as opposition parties
having regional representation.
A cursory look at Presidential
elections in Nigeria reveals that
in the last 14 years, no single
political party has been in the
position to oust the incumbent
PDP government thus the only
options available for opposition
political parties to exercise
executive power is to merge,
which eventually materialised
with the formation of the All
Progressive Congress (APC) by
Nigeria's largest opposition
11
parties comprising the Action
Congress of Nigeria, All Nigerian
Peoples Parties (ANPP), Congress for
Progressive (CPC) and APGA. This
unified opposition party was formally
registered on July 31, 2013. The party
unveiled its manifesto on August 21,
2013 focusing on a seven point
agenda in the areas of electricity
generation, war against corruption,
food security, integrated transport
network and free education,
devolution of power, accelerated
economic growth and affordable
health care and security. Ironically, an
examination of the ruling PDP
Manifesto also shows that their
agenda is electricity generation, war
against corruption, education, job
creation, security and health care.
What has become obvious is that the
two political parties have almost the
same priorities featuring prominently
in their respective manifestoes, but
what the duo have not told Nigerians
i s w h a t t h e i r s t r a t e g i e s of
implementing their manifesto is? So
far political parties in Nigeria have
failed to translate their manifesto into
tangible development that can
consolidate the yearnings of the
people in a democracy.
Of concern is, does APC's manifesto
speak to the yearnings of Nigerians?
Does it have the capacity to
transform the system by
communicating a will to meeting
the yearnings and aspirations of
Nigerians? Discussions among the
Nigerian middle class show that
they see APC as an alternative to
the ruling People Democratic Party.
Most of them have lost hope in the
PDP. They believe that PDP has
been unable to deliver the
dividends of democracy to the
people. The online poll conducted
by WorldStage Newsonline shows
that 52.94 percent of Nigerians
believe the APC will defeat PDP in
the 2015 Elections. World Stage
Newsonline survey asked, “Does
the newly registered All
Progressives Congress (APC) in
Nigeria have the quality to dislodge
the People's Democratic Party
(PDP) from the presidency in 2015?”
47.06 percent voted that APC
cannot defeat PDP whereas 52.94
percent voted that APC will beat
PDP at the polls.
What will be the challenges facing
the APC since opposition parties
have not been seen to have been
able to foster the needed synergy
and cooperation that will engender
an enduring political formation.
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and General
Buhari are seen as the leaders of
the defunct opposition parties ACN
The PDP have won the Presidential Elections since 1999
The ANPP is a northern party presently controlling only two states of Yobe and Bornu in North East Nigeria due to its cross
carpeting/defections of its leaders.
13
The ACN controls five South Western States of Ekiti, Lagos, Osun, Ogun and Oyo and Edo State in the South South Geozones but have influence across the country. However, the party is primarily regional and seen more as a Yoruba party.
14
The membership base of the CPC is largely concentrated in the North and viewed as an Hausa/Fulani Party, the party controls
Nasarawa State and polled 31.8 percent of total votes cast during the 2011 Presidential elections
15
APGA is a South Eastern Party presently controlling Imo and Anambra states.
16
The LP was promoted by the Nigerian Labour Congress under the leadership of now Governor of Edo State, Comrade Adams
Oshiomole, the party presently controls Ondo State while Comrade Oshiomole himself contested the 2007 Edo Gubernatorial
elections under the banner of ACN/ LP Alliance, any reference to such alliance has disappeared.
17
Is an example of a party formed to achieved the ambition of its promoter, APGA was formed to achieve the Presidential
ambition of Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu
12
11
and CPC18 that are now in the
new party. However, political
events have shown that the duo
has not been able to work
together as a united opposition
previous elections. Their
inability to reconcile their
interests at the process of
negotiating alliances was
instrumental to creating the
2015 Elections: Does All
Progressive Congress Stand a
Chance?
A
n examination of political
party alliances in Africa from
2000 to date shows the
alliances rarely result in incumbents
losing in an election19. Nonetheless, it
will not be proper to conclude that
the 2013 merger in Nigeria is
likely to fail because they now
have a merged party rather than
an alliance, particularly with the
erratic voting pattern and
electoral volatility, witnessed in
the 2007 and 2011 elections
respectively, APC stands a
chance of winning the 2015
election.
Table A:
Summary of the 1st April 2007 Presidential Election Results top 3 Political Parties
S/N Candidates
Parties
1
2
3
People’s Democratic Party (PDP)
All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)
Action Congress (AC)
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua
Muhammadu Buhari
Atiku Abubakar
Votes
24,638, 063
6,605,299
2,637,848
Table B:
th
Summary of the 16 April 2011 Presidential Election Results top 4 Political Parties
S/N
Candidates
Parties
1
Goodluck Jonathan
People’s Democratic Party (PDP)
2
Muhammadu Buhari
Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)
3
Nuhu Ribadu
Action Congress for Nigeria (ACN)
4
Ibrahim Shekarau
All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)
Votes
22,495,187
12, 214, 853
2,079, 151
917, 012
Source: INEC, 2011
18
Salihu, M.L. (2012), 2015 Manifesto of Nigerian Opposition Politics
Incumbency factor has been a strong contributor for the oppositions inability to wrestle power from the ruling party in
Africa politics, deploying state machinery into the electioneering process, secondly, proliferation of political parties with
the attendant results of smaller/weaker opposition parties contributes to the dominance of the ruling party and a dominant
one party system is another factor and lack of clear programmes plus their inability to sustain coalition. Taking Burkina
Faso, Benin republic and Nigeria as examples in West Africa, the citizenry of these countries have not been offered any real
alternative by existing fragmented opposition further contributing to voters' apathy. In Burkina, there are over 100
opposition political parties yet the Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) remains the ruling party even the alliance
of affirmative 2005 could not oust the CDP. See also Resnick 2013.
19
12
Criminal Justice System in West Africa
Nigerian Political Parties: From Failed Opposition Electoral Alliance to Merger:
The March Towards the 2015 General Elections
Table A and B above show the
voting pattern and electoral
volatility, witnessed in the 2007
and 2011 elections respectively.
In the 2007 election, PDP got
24,638,063 votes, ANPP
6,605,299 votes, ACN
2,637,848. While in the 2011
elections, despite alleged claim
that Nigerians voted massively
for President Goodluck
Jonathan, PDP votes dwindled
to 22,495,187, while the
candidature of General Buhari
under the CPC platform (He
contested under ANPP in 2007)
got 12,214,853 votes without
any alliance.
This shows that there is a clear
change of voting pattern
compared to what was obtained
in the 2007 elections.
Considering the dwindling
voting pattern in PDP during the
2011 election and the sharp
increase for CPC, there is the
likelihood that the recent
coalition stands a chance to oust
the incumbent party. It is also
important to note that CPC got
a a large number of votes when
it hadn't entered into an alliance,
with the recent merger the, APC
is likely to get more votes than
PDP in the 2015 elections. It
should be noted that APC has
majority of its loyalists in the
north and southwest which
have the largest population of
voters in the country.
The internal divisions in the PDP
are also deepening, a faction of
the PDP, the Peoples Democratic
Movement has been registered
as a new political party, and
20
another political party called the
Voice of the People (VOP) is
expected to emerge any minute
from now after final clearance from
INEC. During the last Special
Convention, another faction of the
party emerged calling itself the New
Peoples Democratic Party (nPDP), in
this group are 7 governors, 55 House
of Representative members and 22
Senators. This is weakening the
ruling parties' structures and
increasing electoral volatility, with
the likelihood of a turnover almost
certain.
The question that occupies the mind
is will this merger facilitate
democratic consolidation by
creating a platform for competitive
institutionalised party systems or is a
merger to take over power or will it
be a resemblance of PDP? Debates
around this new party seem to
suggest that it is primarily an
organisation designed to capture
power from the ruling party. Some
observers believe it lacks the
capacity to consolidate democracy
as it is predominantly distinguished
by the personalities of the party
leadership rather than a distinct
programme that is relevant to the
yearnings and aspirations of
Nigerians.
What is not clear at the moment is
whether the new political party will
p u t i n p l a c e a p ro c e s s of
institutionalisation in a way that will
secure its continuation and it is not
likely to split and capable to
w i t h s t a n d p re s s u re w i t h o u t
abandoning the party rules and
political freedom of its membership.
Again whether the main elites in the
new political par ty have
accepted democracy in which
par ticipator y approach is
adopted to accommodate all
party members. The challenges
of political parties' alliances and
merger in Nigeria must be
acknowledged in accessing how
far the new political party will
go. The APC should
immediately study the Alternativ
2000 and NARC coalitions in
Senegal and Kenya as good
examples of how to win
elections20.
Ahead of the plan for Kenyan
elections in 2002, the National
Alliance Party of Kenya formed
an alliance with the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) which
resulted in the formation of the
National Alliance of Rainbow
Coalition (NARC). On
December 27, 2002, when the
election was held NARC won a
landslide victory with 62 percent
while Kenya African National
Union (KANU) got 31 percent
votes winning the incumbent at
the polls. Prior to the coalition,
Kibaki was consistently defeated
in the presidential elections, but,
three years after, intra-party
crisis arose from Kibaki's sack of
all LDP members in his cabinet
and Odinga challenge of his
action adversely affected the
coalition bringing the coalition
to an end. Socialist Party
dominated Senegal's politics for
40 years not until March 2000,
when Abdoulaye Wade won the
presidential election through
the alternative 2000 with a
It is however uncertain if these coalitions are good examples for the institutionalisation of the party system, a key
challenge bedevilling Nigeria Political party system or democratic consolidation.
13
coalition with six other parties in
the run-up to the first round
elections to form the broader
Front pour l'Alternance (FAL).
T h e Ke n y a a n d S e n e g a l
experience show coordinated
and formidable opposition has
the capacity to oust the
incumbent president. This
further reaffirms that the merger
formed in Nigeria can lead to the
ousting of the incumbent
president if the party can harness
its synergy and convince the
electorate that it can deliver
public good to the people and
create a platform for Nigerian
democratic consolidation and
stable polity.
However, despite the beliefs and
hope amongst many Kenyans
and Senegalese that the NARC
and alternative 2000 coalitions
will bring the needed
development, events seem to
have proved otherwise. This
further buttress the assertion
that coalition parties are not
formed as an alternative option
for delivering public goods but
for the acquisition of power and
satisfaction of individual interests
and aspirations.
From the foregoing, Nigerians
ought not to celebrate the
merger but be concerned about
the ability of the party to revert
Nigeria from the abyss it has
lingered in for so long. They must
begin to ask the question: What
are the alternative
developmental policy options
and implementation strategies
the APC will employ to lift the
nation from the present
development paralysis it finds
itself? While the APC itself should
borrow a leaf not just from the
success of the NARC and
affirmative 2000 alliances in
capturing political power, it must also
attempt an understanding of the
challenges of this most acclaimed
merger in envisioning the challenges
likely to bedevil its new assemblage
of Nigeria's political giants.
However, we still argue that the
agitation or desperation to win the
2015 presidential election by the
merger is not the best approach at
the moment. If the new party is out to
meet the aspirations of the Nigerian
people, there is urgent need to work
on their manifestos, modalities to
demonstrate alternatives where the
PDP has failed, internal democracy
and the politics of imposition, and
then convince Nigerians that the new
party can make the difference. This
shows the new party has lots more
work to do if it must be the alternative
it aspires to give to Nigerians.
Conclusion
T
he absence of a viable party
system has been detrimental
to democratic consolidation in
Nigeria as it has reduced
accountability, increased uncertainty
and impeded institutionalisation of
political parties. The newly formed
merger, APC, is therefore a welcome
development as not only is it a strong
and viable opposition but also an
important component of electoral
democracy that is a game
changer in bringing about
increased electoral
competitiveness in Nigeria.
While we acknowledge the
potential of party recomposition
in promoting the consolidation
of democracy, the new party
must demonstrate its relevance
to the yearnings and aspirations
of the Nigerian masses by
engaging in issue based politics
n o t m e r e r h e t o r i c 's o r
personality politics. They must
offer realistic and time bound
manifestoes for achieving their
a i m s , w o r k t o w a rd s t h e
enthronement and
institutionalisation of a political
culture, which emphasises
equity, social justice, fairness,
h o n e s t y, a c c o u n t a b i l i t y,
integrity, inclusiveness, women
and youth empowerment, and
equality of all before the law
regardless of social and political
status, or ethnic and religious
affiliation. It is only this and not
mere office seeking coalition
focused on ousting the
incumbent that will lead to the
delivery of democratic dividend
to the Nigerian masses.
The absence of a viable party system has been detrimental to
democratic consolidation in Nigeria as it has reduced accountability,
increased uncertainty and impeded institutionalisation of political
parties.
14
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