By Steve Briese, Saturday, February 25, 2012
Based on the Commitments of Traders tabulated Tue,
February 21, 2012 released Fri, February 24, 2012.
STOCK INDEXES
COT 29%
2
This composite of S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow futures
shows only slight changes in trader positions from a
week ago. The COT-Fisher sell signal of three weeks
ago remains in effect. A major COT sell signal was
struck in NASDAQ, which we apply to Dow and S&P
(pictured) futures. An S&P wedge formation provides a
special situation shorting opportunity on a break of the
lower boundary [near 1300 basis continuous contract].
This is a preview of Monday's Bullish Review,
containing composite COT Indexes for major
market sectors. Individual markets are listed
on page 3 and charted on pages 4 to 9.
DOLLAR INDEX
COT 4%
0
Dollar Index net positions (created by inverting a
composite of IMM foreign currency futures) are nearly
unchanged for the week. The dollar remains speculatively overbought, with CTA's heavily net long opposite
a commercial net short position. But, as we saw during
2010 (circled), this is the textbook bull market pattern.
In the best case, the pullback will be deep enough to
trigger a COT buy signal ahead of the next bull leg.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Statements and
recommendations are subject to the limitations inherent in market analysis and may be changed without notice. No claim is made that future
recommendations will be as profitable as past performance or that they will not result in losses. All trade references should be considered hypothetical.
This report should be considered provisional; check Monday's Bullish Review newsletter for complete analysis.
THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING. Those using this information are responsible for their own actions.
© 2012 Insider Capital Group • 362 Gulf Breeze Pkwy • Gulf Breeze, FL 32561 • www.InsiderCapital.com
Tel 1-888-423-4950 850-677-1966 • Fax: 1-850-677-3521 • Re transmittal or duplication in any form is illegal and strictly prohibited.
TREASURYS
COT 50%
OIL COMPLEX
17
Commercial buying over the past two weeks has
triggered a minor COT buy signal as commercials continue to keep prices in a narrow range. Limited upside
range and Fed manipulation keep us on the sidelines.
PRECIOUS METALS COT 26%
9
February 25, 2012
0
Commercials, selling on strength, moved to their
second most bearish net position on record. They see
petroleum as grossly overpriced. There is huge downside potential once the speculative fear factor plays out.
SOY COMPLEX
A minor COT sell signal for gold, silver & platinum remains in effect. CTAs are 76% net long, creating the
potential for a cascading decline as layers of speculative
stop-loss levels are crossed on the next price break.
COT 0%
COT 41%
12
Last week's COT-Fisher sell signal for the soy complex
remains in effect. A mature flag formation is visible on
the weekly bar chart for soybeans. A break of the lower
boundary could mark the start of a major bear leg.
Bullish Review
Page 2
COT INDEXES (Futures + Options)
SYMBOL
COMMERCIAL HEDGER
21. Feb. 2012
CHANGE
LARGE SPECULATOR
21. Feb. 2012
CHANGE
SMALL TRADER
21. Feb. 2012
CHANGE
LAST
COMMENT
INDEXES
CRB
DowInd
NASDAQ
>> NIKKEI
S&P500
47%
23%
20%
91%
48%
-10
-7
+13
+11
-5
55%
72%
81%
14%
46%
+8
+9
-11
-7
+7
37%
65%
43%
17%
58%
+19
-3
-7
-15
-1
#881
#880
#881
#838
#881
30%
55%
36%
28%
-11
+3
+2
-3
56%
43%
58%
69%
+8
0
-4
+2
72%
49%
47%
46%
+13
-8
+3
+2
#880
#880
#870
#872
22%
59%
50%
95%
11%
44%
12%
47%
-1
-5
-6
-1
-3
+13
0
-3
78%
40%
46%
6%
84%
66%
88%
51%
+1
+5
+4
+2
+3
-9
+1
+2
62%
34%
50%
14%
96%
22%
63%
53%
-2
+2
+6
-4
-4
-20
0
+1
#880
#875
#881
#879
#871
#874
#881
#880
85%
0
0%
-5
43%
+8
#875
43%
44%
54%
57%
35%
-4
+12
+20
+11
+6
53%
51%
35%
46%
66%
+5
-4
-24
-7
-4
70%
71%
80%
60%
36%
-5
-17
-3
-8
-10
#836
#878
#878
#878
#878
47%
81%
74%
32%
71%
93%
42%
49%
84%
-10
+4
+6
-1
-1
-2
-7
-13
+3
52%
26%
25%
57%
42%
8%
72%
49%
6%
+10
-7
-9
+5
-6
-2
+6
+15
-7
48%
26%
25%
71%
19%
23%
13%
47%
59%
+10
+1
+5
-3
+19
+7
+4
+4
+19
#882
#882
#859
#774
#882
#877
#858
#882
#877
2%
49%
40%
-4
-8
+1
95%
51%
59%
+2
+8
+1
38%
46%
65%
+2
-4
-11
#865
#865
#865
89%
86%
99%
64%
37%
53%
-7
0
+4
+3
-7
-19
11%
1%
0%
46%
56%
38%
+7
0
-5
+2
+6
+11
16%
53%
39%
42%
87%
56%
+5
+2
+9
-15
+9
+29
#882
#881
#859
#881
#882
#862
0%
11%
0%
5%
-5
-9
-1
0
100%
62%
100%
91%
0
+9
0
-1
74%
100%
20%
92%
+10
+4
+1
+1
#878
#878
#877
#686
METAL
>
GOLD
COPPER
> PLATIN
> SILVER
CURRENCY
AUSSI$
POUND
> CANAD$
>> EUROFX
$INDEX
> YEN
Kiwi $
> PESO
SWISS
FINANCIAL
>
3MO-ED
5YR-TN
> 2YR-TN
> 10Y-TN
30Y-TB
>
GRAIN
SB-OIL
CORN
KC-WHT
MN-WHT
OATS
>> RRICE
SBeans
S-MEAL
WHEAT
MEAT
>>
FEEDER
CATTLE
HOGS
FOOD/FIBER
COCOA
COTTON
>> COFFEE
LUMBER
OJ
> SUGAR
PETROLEUM
>>
CRUDE
H-OIL
>> NATGAS
>> Gasoli
>> = COT Extreme Level (COT Index above 90% or below 5%)
> = COT Extreme Movement (plus or minus 40 point change in COT Index within last six weeks)
February 25, 2012
Bullish Review
Page 3
CURRENCIES
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
BRITISH POUND
CANADIAN DOLLAR
EURO CURRENCY
JAPANESE YEN
SWISS FRANC
Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions
February 25, 2012
Bullish Review
Page 4
FINANCIAL & INDEXES
S&P 500
DOW 30 INDEX
NASDAQ 100 INDEX
NIKKEI 225 INDEX
10-YEAR T-NOTES
30-YEAR T-BONDS
Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions
February 25, 2012
Bullish Review
Page 5
METALS
GOLD
SILVER
PLATINUM
PALLADIUM
COPPER
LUMBER
Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions
February 25, 2012
Bullish Review
Page 6
ENERGY & LIVESTOCK
CRUDE OIL
HEATING OIL
RBOB GASOLINE
NATURAL GAS
LIVE CATTLE
LEAN HOGS
Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions
February 25, 2012
Bullish Review
Page 7
GRAIN & SOY
CORN
SOYBEANS
WHEAT
SOYMEAL
OATS
SOYBEAN OIL
Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions
February 25, 2012
Bullish Review
Page 8
FOOD & FIBER
COFFEE
COTTON
COCOA
ORANGE JUICE
SUGAR #11
ROUGH RICE
Weekly | Open Interest | COT Index | Net Positions
February 25, 2012
Bullish Review
Page 9