6/23/2016
GLOBAL RICE MARKET
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17
NINTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP
FAO, Rome
22-23 June 2016
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
GLOBAL PRODUCTION TO RECOVER IN 2016
After two successive seasons of no or negative production growth, global paddy production to recover by 1 percent in
2016. Improved weather conditions to boost plantings in Asia, where these had been depressed by unseasonable
dryness in 2014 and 2015.
Million tonnes
Percent
750
6
Tonnes per hectare
Million hectares
165
5.0
5
700
4
4.7
160
3
650
2
600
4.4
155
4.1
1
0
550
150
3.8
-1
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
f'cast.
Paddy production
Annual growth rate
-2
145
3.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
f'cast.
Area
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
Yields
2
1
6/23/2016
EL NIÑO DISSIPATES - LA NIÑA LIKELY TO FOLLOW
El Niño neutral conditions return in time for main-crop plantings in northern hemisphere Asia. The likely la Niña event
could provide a further boost to rains over the region later in the year.
NOAA Climate.gov
NOAA Climate Prediction Center: Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status and
Prediction Presentation, 13 June 2016.
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
3
PRODUCTION IN THE MAJOR PLAYERS
Prospects generally favourable for northern hemisphere countries, less so for the southern hemisphere.
2014
2015
2016 F
million tonnes, milled eq.
2016/2015
Change
%
World
494.4
490.1
494.4
0.9
China (Mainland)
India
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Viet Nam
Thailand
Myanmar
Philippines
Brazil
Japan
United States
Pakistan
141.5
105.5
44.4
34.5
29.2
22.0
16.9
12.4
8.2
7.8
7.1
7.0
142.7
103.4
45.8
35.0
29.4
19.0
16.5
11.7
8.5
7.6
6.1
6.6
143.4
105.6
45.1
34.8
28.9
20.1
16.8
12.2
7.5
7.7
7.3
6.6
0.5
2.2
-1.5
-0.4
-1.6
5.6
1.9
4.4
-11.6
1.2
20.1
0.0
Countries ranked according to their position in 2014-2016 average
production.
F=forecast
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
4
2
6/23/2016
RETURN TO EL NIÑO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TOO LATE FOR SOME
Where the 2016 season is more advanced, main-crops were hindered by untimely rains, unseasonable temperatures or
water shortages, under peaking El Niño conditions.
Mekong Delta Saltwater Intrusion Map
Rainfall departure from LPA (MM)
100
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
50
0
-50
-100
Kien Giang - Viet Nam
West Java - Indonesia
100
50
0
Affected area > 4g/l
: Affected area > 4g/l, but fresh water
fetched at low tide possible
-50
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Possibly affected with 4g/l
Corrientes - Argentina
Central Committee for Natural Disasters Prevention and Control, March 2016.
Rio Grande Do Sul - Brazil
5
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
FAO-AMIS-USDA-IGC Balances
General agreement on production upturn, but the extent of the forecast recovery also influenced by the treatment of
southern hemisphere producing countries.
RICE
(milled)
FAO-AMIS
2015/16
2016/17
est.
f'cast
2-Jun
2015/16
est.
USDA
2016/17
f'cast
10-May
2015/16
est.
IGC
2016/17
f'cast
26-May
Production
490
494
470
481
473
486
Supply
664
663
585
587
584
587
Utilization
496
503
478
481
483
488
Trade
44.7
44.1
41.4
40.7
42.2
41.8
Stocks
169
164
106
107
101
99
Production: For FAO-AMIS, rice production data refer to the first year of the marketing season shown (e.g. 2016
production is allocated to the 2016/17 marketing season). By contrast, for rice and maize, USDA and IGC
aggregate production of the northern hemisphere of the first year (e.g. 2016) with production of the southern
hemisphere of the second year (2017 production) in the corresponding 2016/17 global marketing season.
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
6
3
6/23/2016
INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN RICE
Volumes traded across the globe to remain large in 2016 and 2017, but unlikely to match heights seen in 2014.
A combination of tighter exportable availabilities and improved harvests in major importing countries to check growth.
World rice trade and FAO Rice Price Index
Million tonnes, milled eq.
50
Exports
2002-2004=100
300
FAO Rice Price Index
45
250
40
35
200
30
25
150
20
100
15
10
Some dominant market features:
 Still a thin market
 Strong government intervention
 state trading
 self-sufficiency agendas
 Large informal flows
 High level of segmentation
 Concentration of exports
50
5
-
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016*2017
f'cast
* Jan.-May 2016 average for prices
7
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
DEMAND IN ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA TO UNDERPIN TRADE IN 2016
Rising needs due to El Niño related production shortfalls and the need to reconstitute inventories to keep imports by
Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean at above average levels in 2016.
2015
2016 F
2017 F
2017/2016
Change
million tonnes, milled eq.
Far East
16
%
World
44.5
44.7
44.1
-1.4
China (mainland)
Nigeria
EU
Philippines
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Côte d’Ivoire
Senegal
Malaysia
Iraq
Iran, Islam. Rep of
Others
6.6
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.8
23.6
6.3
2.5
1.9
2.0
1.6
1.8
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
23.0
6.0
2.7
1.9
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.2
23.5
-4.8
8.0
1.6
-25.0
-2.6
-44.4
9.7
4.8
-8.3
9.6
4.3
2.4
Countries ranked according to their position in 2015-2017 average imports.
F=forecast
Million tonnes, milled eq.
12
Africa
Near East Asia
8
Others
4
Latin America & C.
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
f'cast
8
4
6/23/2016
BUT MORE RESTRICTIVE POLICIES AND MACRO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
CAP TRADE GROWTH
Nigeria: Imports
China (Mainland): Imports
USD/tonne
Million tonnes, milled eq.
7.0
Imports
6.0
of which
informal
Price differential Hunan
Indica and Viet Nam 25%
300
Million tonnes, milled eq.
Imports
4.0
of which
across land
borders
250
3.0
5.0
200
4.0
150
2.0
3.0
100
2.0
1.0
50
1.0
0.0
-
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
f'cast
2016
f'cast
9
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
ON THE EXPORT SIDE...
Successive poor harvests to cost India its leading role amongst world rice exporters. In Thailand, supply releases from
Government stockpiles to cushion production shortfalls and sustain exports.
2015
2016 F
2017 F
2017/2016
Change
million tonnes, milled eq.
World
44.5
%
44.7
44.1
-1.4
Thailand
India
9.8
9.9
10.2
3.0
11.1
10.0
8.5
-15.0
Viet Nam
8.4
8.7
8.8
1.1
Pakistan
4.1
4.4
4.4
0.0
United States
3.5
3.3
3.6
8.3
Myanmar
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.2
Cambodia
1.2
1.4
1.4
0.0
Brazil
0.9
0.8
0.9
6.8
Uruguay
0.7
0.9
1.0
5.6
Guyana
0.5
0.5
0.5
2.0
Others
2.7
3.2
3.3
1.5
Countries ranked according to their position in 2015-2017 average exports.
F=forecast
Major rice exporters' shares in global trade
Percent
30
India
25
Thailand
20
Viet Nam
15
Pakistan
10
5
0
United States
2013
2014
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
2015
2016
2017
f'cast
10
5
6/23/2016
GLOBAL UTILIZATION TO OUTPACE PRODUCTION
Sustained by greater food demand, global rice utilization to outpace production in 2016/17 leading to a second
successive year of global inventory declines.
2015-16
est.
2016-17
f'cast
Change:
Million tonnes, milled eq.
2016-17/
2015-16
million tonnes, milled eq.
220
Production
180
494.4
490.1
494.4
0.9
44.5
44.7
44.1
-1.4
Utilization
491.5
496.4
502.6
1.3
Food
395.2
399.7
404.7
1.3
Feed
17.8
17.9
18.1
0.7
Trade
Other uses
Ending stocks
78.5
78.8
79.8
1.3
173.9
168.9
163.8
-3.0
525
Stocks (left axis)
Production (right axis)
Utilization (right axis)
%
WORLD BALANCE
Million tonnes, milled eq.
495
140
465
100
435
60
405
20
2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17
375
f'cast
11
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
INDIA AND THAILAND TO DRIVE STOCK DRAW-DOWN
Efforts to dispose of large public reserves to cut inventories in Thailand and India, offsetting continued buildups in
China (Mainland), due to successive large harvests and sizeable imports.
Stocks held by the major rice exporters and stocksto-disappearance ratio
Global closing stocks and Stocks-to-use ratio
Million tonnes, milled eq.
Percent
200
40
160
32
120
Million tonnes, milled eq.
Percent
55
30
44
24
24
33
18
80
16
22
12
40
8
11
6
0
0
0
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2012/13
2014/15
2016/17
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
f'cast
Rest of the world
China, Mainland
Major rice exporters
World stocks-to-use-ratio
2012/13
2014/15
2016/17
0
f'cast
Pakistan
Viet Nam
India
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
United States
Thailand
Stocks-to-disappearance Ratio
12
6
6/23/2016
INTERNATIONAL RICE PRICES
In the Indica segment, a two year downward tendency is reversed amid prospects of tighter availabilities.
Although less pronounced, gains also concern Aromatic rice.
High Quality Indica Prices
Aromatica and Japonica Prices
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
600
1,400
550
1,250
500
1,100
450
950
400
800
350
650
300
250
500
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
US 2/4%
Viet 5%
Jun-15
Sep-15
Thai 100% B
India IR 5%
Dec-15 Mar-16
Jun-16
Jun-15
Pak Irri 10%
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Pak Basmati
Thai Fragrant
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
India Basmati
US N.1/4 MG
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
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UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SHORT TERM
 Weather
 La Niña and its potential influence over monsoon rains in Asia
 Policies
 In major exporters, particularly those concerning the release of public stocks in
Thailand and India
 In major importing countries like China (Mainland), Indonesia, Nigeria and the
Philippines
 Macro-economic factors
 currency exchange rates
 energy prices, etc.
 Developments in other cereal markets
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
14
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6/23/2016
Thank You
9th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
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