IMF Statistics Department
Evolving Demand for Statistics—
The Perspective of the
IMF’s Statistics Department
J. R. Rosales
Deputy Director
First GCC Statistical Forum
Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
March 20-22, 2017
Reproductions of this material, or any parts of it, should refer to the IMF Statistics Department as the source.
IMF Statistics Department
Context—Post-Financial Crisis
The global financial crisis highlighted a
buildup of macroeconomic and financial
risks and the central role of the financial
sector. In response, the Fund increased
the focus on macro-financial surveillance,
with balance sheet analysis as the prism
to identify financial frictions and linkages.
Role of
Financial
Sector
Complex macro-financial linkages:
• Among financial institutions
• Between the financial and real sectors
• The financial sector, the sovereign, and
currency market dynamics
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IMF Statistics Department
IMF Response—
Intensified Macro-financial Focus
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Macro-financial linkages and the channels of shock propagation and
amplification
Stylized balance sheets of economies, including integrating
Balance Sheet Approach (BSA) and flow-of-funds analysis
Multilateral surveillance spillover reports
BSA in Article IV Reports (Australia, Indonesia, Ireland, Korea, Malta, U.K.,
U.S., Brazil)
Selected Issues Papers (Germany and Spain for bank-OFC links, Austria for
currency mismatches from FC loan growth, Indonesia for analysis of
macro-financial linkages)
Financial Sector Stability Assessments (Italy, Spain, U.K.)
Other:
• Currency, liquidity, and maturity mismatches by sector (Barbados, Costa
Rica, Guatemala)
• Exposures (Estonia, Croatia)
• Macroprudential vulnerabilities (Latvia)
• Private sector risks (Spain, U.K.)
• Corporate sector leverage and household sector risks (Asia)
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IMF Statistics Department
Macro-financial Surveillance—
New Data Demands
 It is data intensive
 Data gaps are significant
Difficult sectors. OFCs, non-financial corporations, and households.
Households can be a residual, but no cross checking is possible and
irregularities in other sectors could result in substantial variation of the
household residual.
Data gaps. Substantial in developing countries owing to capacity constraints,
but also in advanced countries because of the complexity of financial
products and markets.
G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI). Launched in 2009, including to strengthen
the analytical/conceptual framework for financial stability analysis and global
monitoring of financial stability risks. Second phase launched in 2015.
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IMF Statistics Department
BSA Tool—Balance Sheet Matrix
Combining the SRFs with the external sector and government statistics
databases, nearly all entries in the BSA framework can be filled in
1/ This data gap can in the future be filled with data from the revised Government Finance Statistics Annual Questionnaire (GFSQ) which was launched in October 2014
2/ Debt and equity securities only.
3/ Aggregated data on NFCs and other resident sectors only.
CB - central bank ; ODC - other depository corporation; OFC - other financial corporation; SRF - Standardized Report Form (for monetary data); IMD - Integrated Monetary Database;
IIP - International Investment Position; BOP - Balance of Payments; CPIS - Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey; CDIS - Coordinated Direct Investment Survey;
QEDS - Quarterly External Debt Survey; JEDH – Joint External Debt Hub
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IMF Statistics Department
BSA Matrix—Data Requirements
Requirements:
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Frequency
Timeliness
Encouraged items for the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS)
Participation in the CPIS and the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey
(CDIS)
Collection of additional analytical position data according to BPM6
Quarterly reporting of International Investment Position (IIP) data with
consistency with data collected through the CDIS and CPIS
DGI-1 Recommendation 15 calls for a strategy to promote BSA data, flow-of-funds,
and sectoral data.
Special Data Dissemination Standard Plus (SDDS+) addresses data gaps, with
emphasis on interlinkages affecting systemically important financial sectors.
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IMF Statistics Department
BSA—Costa Rica
• Main concern: Weakened fiscal and external positions, along with
currency mismatches could spark a crisis
• BSA to analyze mismatches (currency and maturity) and credit risks
• BSA matrices for 2010/2013, depicting five sectors, with assets and
liabilities decomposed into foreign and domestic currency
• Rest of the world is net creditor to economy
• Central Bank – net debtor, large foreign reserves but large liabilities
due to sterilization transactions
• Public Sector – net debtor, large fiscal deficits of CG
• Financial Sector – net debtor, due to increase in external debt
• Private sector – net debtor, although declining somewhat during 201013 with increase in deposits and other savings instruments
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IMF Statistics Department
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IMF Statistics Department
Costa Rica—Conclusion
• Limited vulnerability to currency
risks, given preponderance of FDI
liabilities and the sizeable official
reserves
• Limited vulnerabilities from maturity
mismatches in FX exposures, given
sizeable official reserves and private
sector liquid foreign assets relative to
short-term FX liabilities in the financial
sector
• Vulnerabilities from currency risk are in
significant in public sector; but the nonfinancial private sector FX vulnerabilities
are limited to positions vis-à-vis the
banking sector
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IMF Statistics Department
BSA—India
A - The banking
system is mostly
exposed to the
government.
B - The main
spillover risk is
in corporate
balance sheets,
with a large
exposure to the
rest of the world.
Note, however, that the
upper and lower data
triangles are not
consistent.
Flow of funds data published by the Bank of India.
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IMF Statistics Department
BSA—South Africa
Main concern: Increased net capital inflows, rapid growth in the stock and
real estate markets, expansion in credit to the private sector and absorption
impacted the economy’s balance sheet and increased vulnerabilities.
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BSA to analyze macro vulnerabilities between 2002 and 2005
Sensitivity to exchange rates and foreign interest rates shocks
Assess possible mismatches in size and structure of sectoral BS
Data for the BSA matrices come from SRFs, QEDS, CPIS, IIP
Findings:
Net financial positions appeared resilient to sizeable depreciation
(30 percent)
• Economy appeared resilient to weather a foreign interest rate shock
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IMF Statistics Department
BSA—Malta
Main issue: Examine vulnerability to rising global interest rates.
• Snapshot of balance sheet positions forming the linkages among sectors
of the economy, including with nonresidents
• Analysis confirmed Malta’s position as a financial hub, with financial
sector holdings of large stocks of assets and liabilities vis-à-vis the rest
of the world
• Core domestic banks are at the center of inter-sectoral linkages among
Findings:
• Potential vulnerabilities from interconnectedness appear low, with
macroeconomic imbalances generally small
• Vulnerability to foreign interest rates is mitigated by limited linkages of
international banks to the domestic economy and the reliance of core
domestic banks and the government on domestic funding
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IMF Statistics Department
BSA—Indonesia
Network maps provide a graphical presentation of the BSA matrix at
end-2007 and end-2014: size of gross exposures (thickness of arrows)
and net exposures (size of nodes) expanded, with the borrowing of
NFCs from ROW growing most rapidly over the period.
2007
2014
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IMF Statistics Department
Data Needs—Where are the Gaps?
For a number of countries, including some G-20, compilation of monetary and
financial statistics yields insufficient detail to allow construction of a balance sheet.
Other needs:
• More detailed breakdowns by instrument and sector
• Improved guidance on the valuation of stocks, so that valuations cannot be
manipulated (e.g., to conceal or downplay precarious positions during times of
stress)
• Improved IIP data by counterpart economy to facilitate the reconciliation of data
compiled by the parties involved in key positions
• A better understanding of the role of offshore financial centers in financial
intermediation
• For the nonfinancial sector: detail on the breakdown between non-financial
corporations and households
• Household sector: some countries have made substantial progress, with the U.S.
Census Bureau, for example, reporting debt, assets, and flow-of-funds accounts for
U.S. households
• Possible next step to improve monetary and financial statistics (through
Standardized Reporting Forms—SRFs): add maturity structure
• Standardize financial reporting by the non-financial corporate sector?
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IMF Statistics Department
Data Demand—Views of
DGI Stakeholders
• DGI data (i.e., CPIS, IBS, Securities Statistics) are being used for
network analysis (e.g., France) but there is a general demand for more
granular data to support such analysis (e.g., Mexico’s domestic network
contagion model).
• Drawing on the conceptual work of the DGI, regular collection of data
for Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIFIs), household
distributional information would be useful for analytical purposes.
• They agree with the need for more data regarding:
• Non-bank financial institutions
• Non-financial corporations cross-border activities (particularly
fx exposures)
• Intra-group funding
• Household and non-financial corporations sector
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IMF Statistics Department
Data on Cross-border Interconnections
• Requirements: Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey data
(#10/11), International Banking Statistics (#10/11), International
Investment Position data (#12), and Securities statistics (#14)
• “The CPIS data is being used in combination with securities statistics to
improve the monitoring of holding patterns of securities held by residents
and issued by non-residents, to explore interconnectedness via
securities holdings.” “BIS IBS has provided useful data enhancing
analysis of macro-financial risks and complementing the individual risk
surveillance and policy analysis on cross-border exposures.”-France
• “The UK is very interested in more granular mapping of its external
balance sheet to key bilateral partners, by asset type and sector.
Therefore improvements to the IBS is very welcome.” -UK
• “IBS and IIP are useful for financial interconnectedness and financial
stability analysis. They may contribute to analysis on spillover effects
through capital outflows from EMEs.”-Korea
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IMF Statistics Department
Selected Data on Capital Flows
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“Regarding capital flow management, the most useful
recommendations are #10, #11, and #12. Data provided in IBS and the
CPIS are particularly useful to assess spillover and risks channeled
through foreign banks as well as capital markets. Meanwhile, data
provided in IIP are useful to assess the investment stock as opposed to
investment flows and to estimate financial imbalances risks.” Indonesia
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“Japan’s growth strategy identifies “Key Performance Indicators ” with a
view to assess the progress of policy measures. Quarterly IIP enables
to track the progress toward KPI. Currency breakdown of Debt
Securities Statistics & International Banking Statistics enables us to
take stock of changes in currencies for use in international financial
markets” Japan
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IMF Statistics Department
Sectoral Accounts
• Sectoral accounts and balance sheets (#15) provide an overall view
of how risks and vulnerabilities within the domestic financial system.
• “We look forward the completion of recommendation #15: Sectoral
Accounts. This statistics will be very useful to assess the spillover
channel of global shock to domestic economy as well as to identify
financial imbalances and build up systemic risks.”-Indonesia
• “The sector accounts provide information on the economic activities of
the sectors and their interactions.”-Turkey
• “BOK had developed sectoral accounts based on flow of funds data
and interbank transaction data. A new conceptual work (big matrix for
transaction network) for the financial transaction network including
non-bank sector was developed.”-Korea
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IMF Statistics Department
Real Estate Price Indicators
• Increasingly being brought under the policymakers’ radar, including to
monitor the housing market.
• “The availability of Real Estate Price index (#19) has been a crucial
indicator for the analysis of the sustainability of the housing finance
market.”-Brazil
• “Availability of real estate property price has been quite useful for
monitory policy discourse in India. Further, the trends and association
between equity market and asset prices of real estate helped
understanding the linkage and exposure of domestic financial
institutions.”-India
• Real estate prices which are compared to CPI and other asset price
trends like the JSE and yields of the retail bonds. This is done to
assess if rapid rises in a particular asset impacts investment behavior
of the South African household sector (consumer).”-South Africa
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IMF Statistics Department
Government Finance and Public Sector
Debt Statistics (#18)
• Widely used in policymaking (IMF: it’s mostly fiscal…).
• “A holistic approach is adopted with the PSDS. Data on level of debt as
well as structure of debt is covered.”-Turkey
• “Consolidated central government balance, national debt used as
indicators of fiscal soundness when drafting annual budgets and the
5-year National Fiscal Management Plan… General government balance
and general government debt are utilized for conducting comparative
analysis on fiscal soundness in different countries… Public sector debt is
used not only as an indicator of fiscal soundness for the public sector in
the comprehensive and broad sense but also as a reference for
assessing Korea’s credit rating by rating agencies.” -Korea
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IMF Statistics Department
Financial Soundness Indicators (#12)
● FSIs provide cross-country comparable and standardized information.
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“Cross-country FSIs are used to establish national benchmarks, early warning
indicators based on FSIs “-Canada
“FSIs are used in the Financial Stability Review”-China and Russia
“Availability of FSIs provided a strong foundation of financial stability reports,
most of these indicators are now regularly published in FSRs, indicators on
corporates help in macroeconomic analysis”-India
“Monetary Policy Committee uses FSIs as a comprehensive and coherent set of
indicators, validation of the methodology of some of the domestically designed
indicators i.e. household debt indicators”-Brazil
”The FSIs provided inspiration for the BOK to launch several indexes for financial
stability (e.g. FSI index)”-Korea
“The extensions of the list of FSIs as well as the broadened country coverage are
very beneficial for financial stability issues. The indicators are used as a
benchmark for our analyses. In particular, our cross-country analyses benefit from
harmonization with European supervisory reporting schemes which helps to
improve the assessment of the resilience of our national banking system.”
-Germany
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IMF Statistics Department
Data Demand—Private Sector Consultation
(DGI)
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Flow-of-funds data to understand better the movement of risks
within financial systems; from-whom-to-whom tables are key to
be able to track the movement of securities.
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Private sector debt, especially household sector indebtedness,
exposures of shadow banking institutions and non-performing loans of
the banking sector are important.
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Slow progress in GFS data is unfortunate; importance of information on
contingent liabilities underlined.
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Timely disclosure of information is key even though the quality of data
may not be the best.
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Need for standardization: in the collection of raw data e.g., LEI,
adoption of international standards to allow cross country comparison,
and consistency among national regulatory reports.
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IMF Statistics Department
The Link Between the DGI and the
New SDDS Plus
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G-20 DGI informed development of the SDDS Plus, with a close link
between these initiatives.
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Launched in November 2014 with eight adherents.
Build-up of risk in the
financial sector
Cross-border financial linkages
CDS
IIP
FSIs
Real Sector
• Sectoral Balance
Sheets
Securities
Data
IBS
Fiscal Sector
• GGO (quarterly)
• General Govt.
Gross Debt
DGI
CPIS/CDIS
Financial Sector
• FSIs (7), incl. Real
Estate Prices
• Debt Securities
• OFCS
Vulnerability of domestic
economies to shocks
Sectoral
Accounts
Real Estate
Prices
Public
Debt
GFS
External Sector
• CPIS
• CDIS
• COFER
SDDS Plus
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IMF Statistics Department
DGI Phase 2—Priorities
• Current priorities include:
• Dissemination of consistent and comparable Financial Soundness
Indicators
• Ensuring regular collection of International Banking Statistics, the
Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, and the Coordinated Direct
Investment Survey
• Provision of consistent securities statistics
• Improving the availability of sectoral accounts data
• Dissemination of timely and comparable general government
operations and debt data
• For IIP: provide the currency composition of financial assets and
liabilities, with separate identification of OFCs
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Data Gaps—Remaining Challenges
IMF Statistics Department
Contingent claims and liabilities (commitments, guarantees, hedges)
Direct hedges can be captured if there is sufficient capacity to monitor the relevant
markets, but many hedges indirectly reduce risk. Such indirect hedges can be almost
impossible to track.
Confidentiality
Some concerns are unavoidable, but others could diminish if technology and methods
to safeguard data improve more rapidly than techniques to hack and exploit data.
Comparability
• Even simple data can have discrepancies when aggregating (total world exports of
goods and services do not equal total world imports).
• Problems are magnified with less straightforward valuations, such as capital stocks.
• Discrepancies can arise because of sources, measurement techniques, and
compilation methodologies.
• Even discretion within methodologies can have a striking impact.
Reporting frequency and reporting lags
Operational needs differ from analytical or policy needs. More frequent and more
detailed information might be useful for operational purposes, whereas policy analysts
might be willing to sacrifice frequency and timeliness in order to have smoother series
with less noise.
Residency versus nationality
Corporations with increased foreign borrowing (including through substantial offshore
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issuance of securities), without reporting related data.
IMF Statistics Department
What else is the IMF Doing? Capacity Development
STA is partnering with donors to sustain CD
Field-based Regional Technical
Assistance Centers
• RSS basics (close-to-full coverage)
Legend:
RSS = Real
Sector
Statistics
GFS = Gov’t
Finance
Statistics
ESS = External
Sector
Statistics
FSIs =
Financial
Soundness
Indicators
MFS:
Monetary and
Financial
Statistics
LLMICs =
Lower and
low middle
income
countries
I M F
• GFS basics (increasing coverage)
• ESS basics (limited coverage)
Aim to fill gaps in coverage
Financial Sector Stability Fund
(LLMICs)
• FSIs
• MFS
• IIP
• GFS balance sheets
S T A T I S T I C S
D E P A R T M E N T
D4D Fund
(LLMICs)
• RSS
• GFS
• ESS
Policy-relevant high-frequency
data and source data
Topical gaps and expanded
regional coverage on ESS basics
• Financial Access Survey (FAS)
• Online learning
• Statistical Information Management
Bilateral & IMF’s
own resources
• Data dissemination
• Targeted CD, for example:
- Regional harmonization
- Source data
- Other priorities
• Advanced economies
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IMF Statistics Department
The Financial Sector Stability Fund (FSSF)
Balance Sheet Approach Work
stream
FSI Work stream
•Help countries assess financial sector
structure, stability, and vulnerabilities,
undertake stress testing, and develop
macro-prudential policies.
•Provide TA/training to LICs and lower
MICs in compiling and disseminating FSIs
consistent with int’l standards.
•Publish FSIs in IMF’s FSI database
(http//www.fsi.data.org) for use in SDG
monitoring.
•Help countries develop and utilize a
reporting framework to compile critical
balance sheet data for the financial,
external and government sectors to
generate BSA matrices.
•Use matrices to identify cross-border and
cross-sector financial linkages that could
pose risks and vulnerabilities in the
financial sector.
•Provide TA/training to LICs and lower
MICs in compiling MFS, GFS, and ESS
source data for use in BSA.
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I M F
S T A T I S T I C S
D E P A R T M E N T
FSSF size USD30 million, of which USD 5
million for STA CD (FY2018-23).
Fundraising has started.
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IMF Statistics Department
Data for Decisions (D4D) Fund—Overview
Objective: Putting more and better data in the hands of decision makers to enhance evidence-based
macroeconomic policies and support sustainable development goals
Beneficiary countries: Low-income and lower middle-income countries worldwide
Target period: IMF’s FY2019-23
I M F
M1
Financial Access Survey
(FAS)
Sustain and expand the Financial Access Survey
M2
Addressing Data Needs
and Quality Concerns
• Submodule Real Sector Statistics (RSS)
• Submodule External Sector Statistics (ESS)
• Submodule Government Finance Statistics (GFS)
M3
Online Learning
Develop and launch 8 fundamental statistics courses
(English and possibly Spanish and French)
M4
Statistical Information
Management
Provide advice on statistical information management
practices and related technical environments
S T A T I S T I C S
D E P A R T M E N T
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IMF Statistics Department
References
Sectoral BS
BSA
Public sector :
2013: Costa Rica (SIP)
External sector:
2007: Croatia (SIP)
2014: Germany (SIP), Turkey (SIP, SR)
Corporate sector:
2008: France (SIP)
2011: UK (FSAP)
2013: Portugal (SIP), Italy (SR,FSSA)
2014: Spain (SIP), Poland (SIP), Portugal,
Brazil (forthcoming SIP)
Household sector:
2003: Australia, Ireland, UK, US (SR)
2006: France (SIP)
2011: UK (FSAP), Spain (SIP)
2012: Ireland (SIP)
2013-14: Denmark, Netherlands, Norway (SR,
SIP)
2003: Thailand (SIP)
2004: Peru (SIP)
2005: Latvia (SIP), Ukraine (SIP), Belize (SIP)
2006: Colombia (WP/06/5), Estonia (SIP),
Lebanon (SIP), Georgia (WP/06/173),
Seychelles (SIP)
2007: South Africa (SIP), Croatia (SR)
2009: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda (WP 09/4)
2010: Mauritius (WP/10/148)
2011: Croatia (SIP)
2012: Barbados (WP/12/31)—includes
sensitivity analysis
2014: Costa Rica (SIP), India (SIP)
2016: Indonesia (Article IV and SIP)
2017: Malta (Article IV)
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