With Steve LaNore, CBM
March 2016
March: An Expensive Month for the Southern U.S.
March has been a multi-billion dollar month for insured losses in the U.S. from water damage and hail.
Louisiana, Mississippi and east Texas endured record flooding during March 8 through 18 and the Dallas-Fort
Worth Metroplex suffered its most destructive hailstorm since the ‘90s on March 17.
Louisiana and East Texas: Flooding Epicenter
The skies opened up over much of northern Louisiana on March 8, beginning four days of serious deluge;
Monroe racked up over 26 inches of rain during the period. Bossier City, a Shreveport suburb, was
waterlogged by some 20 inches of rain that led to disastrous flooding:
The Tall Timbers subdivision near Haughton, Louisiana (a Shreveport suburb) experienced catastrophic flooding March 9.
This road was no match for torrential rain in NW Louisiana / Photo: Michael Dean Newman
East Texas
The Piney Woods of east Texas also experienced extreme rainfall of over a foot in some locations; every river
in the region was in flood, and of course all of the water simply runs downstream. Toledo Bend Reservoir, fed
by the Sabine River, was rising so fast that engineers were forced to release an incredible 1.5 million gallons
per second to offset the flood wave. Of course this led to serious flooding downriver, but it was unavoidable.
The National Weather Service called this a “500-year flood”. At its peak, the release through the Toledo Bend
flood gates was greater than Niagara Falls.
Toledo Bend on March 10: Forced to release gigantic amounts of water, flooding TX and LA cities downstream
The Sabine River erased a previous record crest near Burkeville, Texas by over 5 feet, and topped a 132-yearold record in Deweyville, Texas. The US Geological Survey gauge at Deweyville tells the story of the record
flood:
Beware the Ides of March: the flood peaked on the 15th, a foot higher than the 1884 record. The whole town was flooded.
Deweyville School seriously waterlogged / KHOU-TV photo
Deweyville wasn’t the only town swamped by the extreme event: Humble and Orange, Texas and countless
towns in Louisiana each saw anywhere from just a few structures, to hundreds, claimed by floodwaters. The
Associated Press reports more than 6,000 buildings damaged by flooding in the state of Louisiana alone.
Several thousand were affected in Texas, about 500 in Mississippi. This is a multi-billion dollar flood.
Metroplex Hailstorm: A Monster Mess
Headline from Fort Worth Star-Telegram website, 4 days after a vicious hailstorm clobbers Tarrant County, TX.
Just two days after the flood peaked at Deweyville, a tremendous hailstorm, the likes of which the DFW
Metroplex hasn’t seen since 1995, formed west of Fort Worth. It struck in the morning making this a rare
event, as most major hailstorms hit during peak heating in late afternoon or evening. The hail fell with such
intensity that it broke out countless vehicle windows around the Fort Worth and Arlington areas. Over two
dozen ambulances were pummeled at one depot, and the Arlington Police Tweeted this picture of their
battered units:
Arlington, Texas Police Tweet from March 17, 2016.
Of course, APD’s cars had lots of company from regular citizens:
Images above from KTVT-11, the DFW CBS affiliate’s website, March 17, 2016.
The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports the Insurance Council of Texas estimating at least $600 million in claims.
State Farm alone had over 5,800 auto claims and 2,600 structure claims through March 21. It’s now one of the
top 10 most expensive hailstorms in U.S. history (8th or 9th). Up to 50,000 vehicles may have been damaged.
Some body shops are already booked through May!
The $600 million estimate is likely to rise as later rain events reveal roof damage not seen on first inspection,
and delayed auto and home claims come in.
Radar view of the hailstorm at 7:42 a.m. as it was approaching Arlington / texasstormchasers
Tennis-ball sized hail in Arlington, TX on March 17 / Photo: Steven Headley
Who Gets the Most Hail?
According to a study done by CDS Business mapping (a hazard database company), these are the Top 10 cities
(50,000 population or more) for hail, in order:
1. Amarillo, Texas
2. Wichita, Kansas
3. Tulsa, Oklahoma
4. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
5. Midwest City, Oklahoma (suburb of OKC)
6. Aurora, Colorado
7. Colorado Springs, Colorado
8. Kansas City, Kansas
9. Fort Worth, Texas
10. Denver, Colorado
Blame it on El Nino?
It’s safe to say that El Nino had an underlying influence on the stormy weather pattern we saw in February
with several major tornado outbreaks, and it’s also consistent with an El Nino to have more water vapor in the
atmosphere. So El Nino made conditions more conducive to February’s tornado and the March floods, but it
was individual weather systems that actually did the dirty work. So…yes in a general way, but not specifically
to this hailstorm or the floods.
Below Average Tornado Counts in March
Research released last year shows that strong El Ninos boost winter-time tornado counts but suppress them in
the spring. All projections show El Nino’s influence gradually weakens through the spring of 2016; we can
expect below normal tornado counts through April, just as we saw in March.
February (circled) had above average tornado activity with March fairly quiet by comparison. SPC data.
However, May and June could be above-average months as the El Nino conditions continue to fade. And while
we’re looking down the road, this year’s hurricane season is likely to produce more hurricanes with higher
intensity than last year since we’re probably going into a La Nina. La Nina weakens tropical wind shear (which
ripped apart several of 2015’s storms) making a friendly environment for them to grow.
Trends like these don’t “insure” us (sorry…couldn’t resist) against a random huge tornado in April, rather it
points to a quieter than average month…for tornadoes…before things could get ugly in the late spring. May
and June are historically the most active tornado months of the year anyway, so it remains to be seen if there
will be any boost to the count, but it’s possible. As for hail, it’s anybody’s guess. Keep an eye on the sky.
Steve LaNore, Certified Broadcast Meteorologist
Author of “Twister Tales: Unraveling Tornado Myths” and
“Weather Wits and Science Snickers”
Available on Amazon