IsthePriceRight?AnAnalysisoftheNationalFootball
LeagueTicketMarketrelativetotheGreatRecession1
BenSinger,YaleSchoolofManagement
Abstract
The Great Recession in the United States (concentrated in 2008 and 2009) not only
incurredwidespreadeconomicturmoil,butalsowasoneofthefewtimeswhenNational
FootballLeague(NFL)attendancefiguresfellbelowalmostcompleteattendanceduring
thelastdecade.However,despitethisfact,NFLticketpricesneverdecreasedonaverage
duringthistime.Thispapertakesadvantageofthisnaturalexperimenttoanalyzethe
macroeconomic,teamperformance,andotherfactorsthatinfluencethemarketforNFL
ticketsbefore,during,andaftertheGreatRecession.Datafor30teamsfromtheyears
2004-2014areusedinaregressionmodelthataccountsbothforteam-basedfixedeffects
and autocorrelation in the errors. The results show that the unemployment rate in a
team’smetropolitanareaisastrongpredictorofthatteam’sattendance;thatthemean
annualwageinateam’smetropolitanareaandtheopeningofanewstadiumarestrongly
predictiveofthepriceofnon-premiumtickets;andthattherelativeticketpriceincrease
associated with a new stadium is greater for non-premium tickets than for premium
tickets.Additionally,thereisnoevidencethatteamperformanceaffectseitherofthese
components of ticket demand, after controlling for team fixed effects. These findings
provideawindowintohowdemandforNFLticketswasimpactedbytheGreatRecession
andcontributetoknowledgeofwhichfactorscanbeusedtopredictthemarketforNFL
tickets in the future. Furthermore, this paper lays the foundation for future work that
investigates to what degree NFL teams’ ticket pricing strategies were economically
rationalduringthistimeperiod.
1. Introduction
Inthispaper,IexaminetherelationshipbetweeneconomicconditionsandNationalFootball
League(NFL)teamticketpricesandgameattendance.DuringtheGreatRecessionintheUnited
States(US),whichoccurredprimarilyduringtheyears2008and2009,economicconditions
deteriorateddramaticallyoverarelativelyshortperiodoftime,withlingeringnegativeaftereffects
[1].Asaconsumptiongoodwithverytransparentqualityandpricedata,NFLticketsprovidea
glimpseintohowtheGreatRecessionaffectedoneaspectoftheUSeconomyacrossavarietyof
differentregions.Availabledata(seesection2.1formoredetails)onNFLticketpricesandgame
attendanceshowthatwhilemeanattendancedeclinedduring2008-2010(thedepthsoftheGreat
Recession),meanNFLticketprices(measuredinUSdollars,orUSD)neverdeclined.Figure1shows
thesepatternsforNFLattendance,non-premiumticketprices,aswellasmeanlocalunemployment
ratesandannualwagesformetropolitanareaswithNFLteams.
GiventhepatternsinFigure1,theGreatRecessionprovidestheopportunitytoexaminethe
followingtwoquestions:
1BusinessofSports,ID:1569
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1. HowdolocaleconomicfactorsimpactthedemandforNFLtickets(ticketpriceand
attendance)relativetoteamperformancevariables?
2. Towhatdegreedothesevariouseconomicandteam-relatedfactorshavedifferenteffects
ondifferentelementsofticketdemand(e.g.,non-premiumticketsvs.premiumtickets)?
Priorresearchhasshownthatopeningnewstadia,prioryearteamperformance,and
macroeconomicvariablessuchasmarketsizeandaverageincomelevelsmaybepositivelylinked
withticketprices[2,3]andattendance[4].However,thesevariablestypicallyhavenotbeen
examinedinthesamestudy,makingitdifficulttoassesstheirrelativeimportance.Furthermore,
onlytwopriorstudieshavedirectlyexaminedtheimpactoftheGreatRecessiononticketdemand
[5,6].Thesestudieshavevariouslimitations,includingalackofcontrolforautocorrelation,andnot
includingteamperformancecovariatesalongsidemacroeconomiccovariatesinthesamemodel.
Thispaperfocusesonthesetwoquestionsusingpaneldatawithteam-yearobservationsfor30NFL
teams2duringtheyears2004-2014(11years).Allticketpricesaretakenfromtheprimarymarket
becausethisiswhereteamssetticketpricesandthispaperisconcernedwiththestrategicticket
pricingbehaviorofteams.TheuseoffixedeffectsandthePrais-Winstenregressionmodelenables
thepapertoisolatetheindividualeffectswithinteamsandaccountforpotentialautocorrelation
problems,andtheinclusionofteamperformanceandmacroeconomiccovariatesallows
assessmentoftherelativeimportanceofeachofthesefactorsindeterminingthecomponentsof
ticketdemand.Additionally,theresultsofthispaperalsocreateafoundationforfurtherresearch
intothemoreambitiousquestion:Wereteamsoperatinginaneconomicallyrationalwayinsetting
ticketpricesduringtheGreatRecession?
60
70
80
Mean average ticket price (USD)
.99
.98
.97
.96
50
.95
Mean average home attendance
1
90
Figure1:Annualvaluesfrom2004-2014for:Topleft–NFLmeanattendance(percentof
seatedstadiumcapacity);Topright–NFLmeanticketprice(USD);Bottomleft–Mean
unemploymentrateacrossNFLteammetropolitanareas;Bottomright–Meanannualwage
acrossNFLteammetropolitanareas(USD)
2004
2006
2008
year
2010
2012
2014
2004
2006
2008
year
2010
2012
2014
2DataexcludedfortheBuffaloBillsandJacksonvilleJaguars.Buffaloisexcludedbecausealarge
proportionofitsfanbaseislocatedinCanada,whichwouldnotbecleanlymappedtotheUS
economicdata.JacksonvilleisexcludedbecauseJacksonville,FLdoesnotconsistentlycontainthe
samelevelofeconomicdataastheother30NFLteams’respectiveUSLargeMetropolitanAreas.
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2004
2006
2008
year
2010
2012
45000
40000
.04
.06
Mean wage (USD)
.08
Mean unemployment rate
50000
.1
2014
2004
2006
2008
year
2010
2012
2014
2. Methods
Foralloftheeconomicmodelsanalyzedinthispaper,Iuselinearregressionwithteam-basedfixed
effectsandaPrais-Winstenspecificationforpanel-correctederrors.Thefixedeffectsspecification
assignsaseparatey-interceptforeachofthe30teams,whichmeansitaccountsforthepossibility
oflargedisparitiesinbaselinevaluesofdependentvariables(i.e.,attendance,non-premiumand
premiumticketprices)fordifferentteams.ThePrais-Winstenestimationcontrolsforserial
correlationbetweentheerrorsinautoregressivemodels.Additionally,Iincludeindependent
dummyvariablesforeachyear(except2014,whichisusedasthebaselineyear)toaccountfor
annualNFL-widefluctuationsinvariables.
Furthermore,inaccountingfortheautocorrelationbetweentheerrors,thePrais-Winstenmodel
incorporatesadirecttimeseriescomponentintothemodel.ThisisimportantbecauseIam
interestedinhowtheeconomicconditionsandotherindependentvariablescorrelatewiththe
dependentvariablesingeneral,aswellashowtherelationshipsbetweenthesevariableschanged
overtimeduringtheGreatRecessionandthesubsequenteconomicrecovery.
2.1. DataSources
Thedataspan30NFLteams(JacksonvilleandBuffaloexcluded)from2001-2014(11years).The
notablevariablesincludeaverageprimarymarketpremiumandnon-premiumticketprice(source:
TeamMarketingReport),averagehomegameattendance(source:ESPN.com),average
unemploymentrateandmedianwage(source:BureauofLaborStatistics),regularseasonwins,
SuperBowlwins,andwinningpercentageoflocalMLB,NBA,andNHLteamsforeachteamandits
correspondingmetropolitanarea.TableA1(Appendix)showstheLargeMetropolitanArea(as
definedbytheBureauofLaborStatistics)Iusedforeachteam.
2.2. EconomicModels
Theeconomicmodelsfortheseregressionanalysescanbeexpressedtheoreticallyas:
𝑌1 = 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1(𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡) + 𝛽2(𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒) +
𝛽3(𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠_𝑝𝑦) + 𝛽4(𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝_𝑝𝑦) + 𝛽5(𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑢𝑚) +
𝛽6(𝑀𝐿𝐵𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒) + 𝛽7(𝑁𝐵𝐴𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒) + 𝛽8(𝑁𝐻𝐿𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒) + 𝜀
(1)
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𝑌2 = 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑢𝑚𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑡𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1(𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡_𝑝𝑦) +
𝛽2(𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒_𝑝𝑦) + 𝛽3(𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠_𝑝𝑦) + 𝛽4(𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝_𝑝𝑦) +
𝛽5(𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑢𝑚) + 𝛽6(𝑀𝐿𝐵𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒_𝑝𝑦) + 𝛽7(𝑁𝐵𝐴𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒_𝑝𝑦) +
𝛽8(𝑁𝐻𝐿𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒_𝑝𝑦) + 𝜀
(2)
𝑌3 = 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑢𝑚𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑡𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1(𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡_𝑝𝑦) +
𝛽2(𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒_𝑝𝑦) + 𝛽3(𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠_𝑝𝑦) + 𝛽4(𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝_𝑝𝑦) +
𝛽5(𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑢𝑚) + 𝛽6(𝑀𝐿𝐵𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒_𝑝𝑦) + 𝛽7(𝑁𝐵𝐴𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒_𝑝𝑦) +
𝛽8(𝑁𝐻𝐿𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒_𝑝𝑦) + 𝜀
(3)
Inthesemodels,Yisthedependentvariable(eitherattendance,non-premiumticketprice,or
premiumticketprice),β0isthey-intercept,β1–β5arethecoefficientswithrespecttothevariables
listedinparentheses(thesuffix“_py”indicatesthatitisalaggedvariablethatrecordsthevalueof
thevariablefortheprioryear),andεistheerrorterm.Thedecisiontouseprioryearversionsof
independentvariablesinsomemodelsratherthanothersisbasedonhowthedependentvariable
inthemodelwouldinteractwiththeindependentvariableofinterest.Becauseticketpricesareset
beforecurrentyearteamperformanceandmacroeconomicvariablesareknown,Iuseprioryear
independentvariablesexceptfornewstadium(becauseteamsknowwhenthestadiumwillopen
whentheysetprices).However,becauseattendanceoccurslateronduringthecourseoftheseason
whenvaluesofmostoftheseindependentvariablesareknown(exceptforthetrueteam
performanceforthatfullyear),Iusecurrentyearversionsoftheseindependentvariablesinthe
attendancemodel.Thehypothesesformodels1-3areasfollows:
-
-
-
-
Unemploymentwillbenegativelyassociatedwithattendanceandnon-premiumticketprice
becausehigherunemploymentmeansthatfewerconsumerswillhavethefinancialmeans
topurchaseticketstoattendgames;
Wagewillbepositivelyassociatedwithattendanceandnon-premiumticketpricebecause
highermeanwagessuggestthatconsumershavemoredisposableincometospendon
luxuryitemssuchasNFLgametickets,andhigherwagesmayreflectdemographicchanges
inlocalareapopulationsthatarehypothesizedtoimpactticketprices[3];
Neitherunemploymentnorwagewillhaveanyassociationwithpremiumticketprice
becausetheaverageconsumerofpremiumticketsissomeonewithenoughfinancial
security/wealththathe/sheisinsulatedfrommarginalfluctuationsinareameanwagesand
unemploymentrates;
Winsandchampionshipwillbepositivelyassociatedwithallthreedependentvariables
becausebetterteamperformancewillincreasedemandtoseetheteamliveduringgames,
bothincreasingthepriceandtheaudience/fanbase;
Newstadiumwillbepositivelyassociatedwithallthreedependentvariablesbecauseteams
willincreaseticketpricesuponopeninganewstadiuminresponsetoprovidingconsumers
withnewerfacilities,andconsumerinterestinexperiencingthenewstadiumwillleadmore
individualstobuytickets(atleastintheshort-term).
MLBwinrate,NBAwinrate,andNHLwinratewillbenegativelycorrelatedwithallthree
dependentvariablesbecausebettercompetingteamswillbemoreattractivetoconsumers,
whousethoseteamsaspotentialsubstitutesforNFLteams,thusexertingdownward
pressureonNFLticketpricesand/orattendance.
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3. Results
Iemployacommonsetofeightindependentvariablesforeacheconomicmodel.Allmodelshave
300observationsbecausetheinclusionoflaggedindependentvariablesexcludesobservations
from2004fromthesample.
3.1. Resultsforattendance3
Table1displaystheoutputforthefixedeffectsPrais-Winstenregressionforattendance.Themain
resultfromthismodelisthatunemploymenthasaverystatisticallysignificantnegativecorrelation
(attheonepercentlevel)withattendance.Theunemploymentcoefficientsuggeststhateveryone
percentincreaseinametropolitanarea’sunemploymentratesyieldsa1.34percentdecreasein
attendanceforthatarea’sNFLteam.Becauseunemploymentrateshaveatightrangeinreality,
withadifferenceoflessthanfourpercentseparatingnormalconditionsandwidespreadeconomic
malaise,acoefficientofthismagnitudeseemsintuitivelyreasonable.
TheotherinterestinginformationfromTable1isthatthereisnosuggestionthatteam
performancehasanyimpactonattendance.Theestimatesforprioryearwinsandchampionship
arenotstatisticallysignificant,whichissurprisingbecauseIhadhypothesizedthattherewouldbe
astrongpositiverelationshipbetweenthesevariablesandattendance.Theinitialevidence
suggeststhatattendanceisnotimpactedbythesuccessoftheproductonthefieldafterone
controlsforteamfixedeffectsandmacroeconomicconditions.
Variablesthatshowweaklystatisticallysignificantassociationswithattendance(percentageof
seatedstadiumcapacityfilled)arenewstadiumandNHLwinrate(bothatthemarginal10percent
level).Openinganewstadiumisestimatedtoincreaseattendancebyroughly4.40percent,which
seemsreasonablefromtheperspectivethatmorefanswillwanttoattendgamestoseethenew
stadium.Inturn,thenewstadiumalsoactsasasignaltofansfromtheteamthattheteamcares
aboutthein-gamefanexperience.Incontrast,eachpercentincreaseinanarea’sNHLwinrateis
estimatedtodecreaseNFLattendanceby-0.07percent.ThatwouldsuggestthatanNHLteam
improvingfromanon-contender(0.35NHLwinrate)toahighplayoffseed(0.65NHLwinrate)
wouldresultinadecreaseinattendanceofslightlyovertwopercent.Whilethisresultisconsistent
withthehypothesisthatbettersportsalternativesputdownwardpressureonNFLticketdemand,
myconcernswithwinratevariablesalongwiththemarginalsignificancemakemehesitanttoread
toomuchintothisresult.
3Notethatallregressionsuseatwo-tailedsignificancetest.Statisticalsignificanceatthe10
percent,fivepercent,andonepercentlevelsaredesignatedby*,**,and***,respectively.
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Table 1. Prais-Winsten fixed effects regression results for attendance
Coefficient
Stat. Sig.
Macroeconomic Conditions
Unemployment rate (%)
-1.34%
Mean wage ($1,000's)
***
0.15%
Team Performance
Prior year regular season wins
Prior year championship (Super Bowl win)
0.15%
-0.63%
Other Factors
New stadium
4.40%
MLB team win rate (%)
0.04%
NBA team win rate (%)
0.00%
NHL team win rate (%)
-0.07%
Observations
300
R-squared
0.76
Rho
0.31
*
*
3.2. Resultsfornon-premiumticketprice
Whileitappearsthattheprimarypredictorofattendance(thatisaccountedforinthispaper)is
unemployment,Table2showsthatnon-premiumticketpricedoesnotsharethisassociation.There
isnorelationshipbetweenprioryearunemploymentandnon-premiumticketprice.Newstadium
hasastrongerimpactonnon-premiumticketprice(statisticallysignificantattheonepercentlevel)
thanintheattendancemodel,whichmakessensegiventhatteamsareprovidinganimproved
stadiumexperienceandthuscanchargeahigherprice.Theotherreasonthismakessenseis
becauseteamswanttorecoupaprofitonthemassivefixedcostinvestmentofbuildinganew
stadium,andthemostsensiblewaytoachievethatisthroughincreasingticketprices.Theresult
estimatesnewstadiumincreasenon-premiumticketpricebytwentydollars.
Asidefromnewstadium,prioryearwagehasastatisticallysignificantpositivecorrelationwith
non-premiumticketprice(atthefivepercentlevel).Thepositiverelationshipbetweenprioryear
wageandnon-premiumticketpriceisinlinewithmyhypothesis.Thesetwovariablesmaybe
correlatedduetoinflationincreasingbothnon-premiumticketpriceandprioryearwage
proportionally,and/orduetoincreaseddiscretionaryincomeforconsumersspurringthemto
purchaseticketsathigherprices.Themagnitudeofthiseffectsuggeststhatevery1,000dollar
increaseinwagesisassociatedwithanincreaseinnon-premiumticketpriceofslightlyoverone
dollar.Inconsideringtheimpactofthiseffect,itisimportanttokeepinmindthatmeanwage
increasedbyover10,000dollarsfrom2004to2014(Figure1)andthatthegreatestwagegrowth
foranyonemetropolitanareawas17,780dollarsforSanFrancisco.Itisalsopossiblethatwage
growthmayinfluenceateam’sdecisiontobuildanewstadium,althoughthisclaimisdifficultto
establishusingonlythedatathatIhave.
Theothernoteworthydeparturefromtheattendancemodelisthatbothteamperformance
variableshavestatisticallysignificant(atthe10percentlevel)positiverelationshipswithnonpremiumticketprice.ThefactthatteamsthatwintheSuperBowlincreasetheirticketpricesby
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2.35dollarsonaverageisnotshocking,giventhataprioryearchampionshipwouldseemtoconfer
premiumstatusonaproductthatisalreadyaluxury/entertainmentgood.Additionally,the
estimatethateachadditionalprioryearwinhasamarginalvalueof0.17dollarsseemsreasonable;
ifanything,itissurprisingthatgoingfroma4-12cellar-dwellertoa12-4conferencechampion
wouldbeestimatedtoonlyboostpricesby1.35dollarsperticket.Perhapsthisisareflectionofthe
possibilitythatmanyteamshaverelativelystableyear-to-yearpercentageofprioryearwins,such
thattherearenotmanyinstancesinthesamplewhereateamexperiencesadramaticturnaround
fromoneyeartothenext.
Table 2. Prais-Winsten fixed effects regression results for non-premium ticket price (dollars)
Coefficient
Stat. Sig.
Macroeconomic Conditions
Prior year unemployment rate (%)
$0.10
Prior year mean wage ($1,000's)
$1.05
**
Prior year regular season wins
$0.17
*
Prior year championship (Super Bowl win)
$2.35
*
Team Performance
Other Factors
New stadium
$20.30
***
Prior year MLB team win rate (%)
-$0.11
*
Prior year NBA team win rate (%)
$0.07
*
Prior year NHL team win rate (%)
-$0.07
Observations
300
R-squared
0.74
Rho
0.47
3.3. Resultsforpremiumticketprice
OneoftheissuesforthepremiumticketpricemodelisthatIwasunabletoaccesspremiumticket
pricedatafor2004and2006thatTeamMarketingReportpublished.Hence,Iimputedthemissing
valuesforpremiumticketpriceunderthepremisethattheyaremissingatrandom(MAR)forthose
twoyears(aswellasfiveotherobservations,fourofwhicharefortheSanFranciscoForty-Niners)
usingchainedimputationviapredictivemeanmatchinginStata.Topredictpremiumticketpricein
myimputationsIusedprioryearversionsof:unemployment,wage,wins,championship,new
stadium,MLBwinrate,NBAwinrate,andNHLwinrate.FigureA1(Appendix)showsthe
distributionplotsofimputed,observed,andcompleted(combinedobservedandimputed)values
forpremiumticketprice.
Table3showstheresultsforpremiumticketprice(R-squaredandRhovaluesomittedduetouseof
multipleimputation).Unlikewithnon-premiumticketprices,prioryearwagehasnostatistically
significantrelationshipwithpremiumticketprice.Similarly,thesignificanceofnewstadiumasa
predictorofpremiumticketpriceismarginalatbest(10percentsignificancelevel).Eventhoughits
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coefficientisdoublethevalueseeninthenon-premiumticketpricemodel,thelinkbetweennew
stadiumandpremiumticketpricesismoretenuous.
Overall,theseresultssupportthenotionsthata)premiumticketconsumersarenotasvulnerable
tomacroeconomicfluctuationsasnon-premiumticketconsumers(becauseofthelackof
associationbetweenpremiumticketpriceandeitherprioryearunemploymentorprioryearwage),
andb)theburdenofticketpriceincreasesasaresultofnewstadiumfallsonconsumersofnonpremiumticketsdisproportionatelyrelativetoconsumersofpremiumtickets.
Specifically,meannon-premiumticketpriceandpremiumticketpriceare73dollarsand232
dollars,respectively.Hence,onaverage,non-premiumticketpriceislessthanonethirdofpremium
ticketprice.However,aproportionateincreaseforeachpricewouldhavepremiumticketprices
increasingbythreetimestheincreaseinnon-premiumticketprice,notjustbyalittleovertwo.
Table 3. Prais-Winsten fixed effects regression results for premium ticket price (in dollars)
Coefficient
Stat. Sig.
Macroeconomic Conditions
Prior year unemployment rate (%)
-$1.11
Prior year mean wage ($1,000's)
$6.48
Team Performance
Prior year regular season wins
$0.91
Prior year championship (Super Bowl win)
$15.19
Other Factors
New stadium
$43.08
Prior year MLB team win rate (%)
$0.41
Prior year NBA team win rate (%)
$0.58
Prior year NHL team win rate (%)
-$0.20
Observations
*
*
300
4. DiscussionandConclusion
Inthispaper,Ihaveestimatedtherelativecontributionsofmacroeconomic,teamperformance,and
otherfactorstoNFLattendance,non-premiumticketprice,andpremiumticketpriceduringthe
GreatRecessionandtheyearsbeforeandafter(2004-2014).Theresultsshowthatattendanceand
non-premiumticketpricearepredictedbyseparatemacroeconomicfactors;theformerisstrongly
correlatedwithunemploymentratewhilethelatterisstronglycorrelatedwithprioryearmean
annualwage.Moreover,premiumticketpricedoesnothaveastatisticallysignificantcorrelation
witheithermacroeconomicvariable,supportingthenotionthatconsumersofpremiumticketsare
moreinsulatedfromeconomicshocksthanconsumersofnon-premiumtickets.
Furthermore,itappearsthattheincreaseinticketpricesassociatedwithnewstadiumsfallson
non-premiumticketconsumerstoagreaterextentthanpremiumticketconsumers(anestimated
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increaseof20dollarsfornon-premiumticketpricesvs.anestimatedincreaseof43dollarsfor
premiumticketprices,eventhoughnon-premiumticketpricescost73dollarsonaverageversus
232dollarsforpremiumticketprices).Evenifturnsoutthatthesenewstadiahaveagreaterratio
ofpremiumseatstonon-premiumseatsthanthestadiatheyarereplacing(meaningthatteams
couldincreasepremiumticketrevenuebyincreasingthevolumeofpremiumseatsratherthanthe
priceperpremiumseat),thesefindingsstillsupportthenotionthatnon-premiumticketsare
becomingincreasinglyexpensiveasteamsmodernizetheirstadia.
Finally,itisnoteworthythatteamperformancewasnotastatisticallysignificantpredictor(atthe
fivepercentlevelorgreater)ofanydependentvariablemeasuredinthefiveeconomicmodels,a
verysurprisingresultgivenmyinitialhypotheses.ThiscouldarisebecauseIexamineannual
changesinteamperformancewhilecontrollingforlargerfranchisehistory,butitisstillsurprising.
Beyondthat,Ihopethispaperservesasafoundationforfutureworkonthemoreambitious
questionofwhetherNFLteamssetticketpricesinaneconomicallyrationalmannerinresponseto
theGreatRecession.ThiscoulddovetailwithpriorresearchthathassuggestedthatNFLteamsset
pricesconsistentwiththenotionofmaximizingcurrentticketrevenueandprofit[7].Alogicalnext
stepwouldbetobuildamodelthatestimatestheelasticityofticketdemandforpremiumandnonpremiumticketsduringtheperiodoftimeusedhere.
TheseanalysesareimportantnotjustbecausetheyprovideinsightintotheeffectsoftheGreat
RecessionorthebroadermarketforNFLtickets,butbecausethisinformationcanhelpprovidea
viewintohowticketpricescouldbesetmovingforward.Thisisaparticularlyexcitingissueinlight
ofhowteamssuchastheSanFranciscoForty-Ninersarenowusingdynamicticketpricingmodels
tobetteradjusttheirticketpricestomeetfandemandwhiletryingtomaximizeattendanceand
teamrevenue.Asimplementationofdynamicticketpricingmodelsisincreasinglyadopted
throughouttheNFLinthecomingyears,Iexpectthequestionsposedwithinthispapertobecome
evenmorerelevanttoteamsaswellasNFLconsumers.
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References
[1]Hurd,M.&Rohwedder,S.(2010).EffectsoftheFinancialCrisisandGreatRecessiononAmerican
Households.NationalBureauofEconomicResearchWorkingPaperNo.16407.
[2]Rishe,P.&Mondello,M.(2003).TicketpricedeterminationintheNationalFootballLeague:a
quantitativeapproach.SportMarketingQuarterly,12(2),72-79.
[3]Shapiro,S.,DeSchriver,T.,&Rascher,D.(2012).FactorsAffectingthePriceofLuxurySuitesin
MajorNorthAmericanSportsFacilities.JournalofSportManagement,26(1),249-257.
[4]Hansen,H.&Gauthier,R.(1989).FactorsAffectingAttendanceatProfessionalSportingEvents.
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Appendix
TableA1:NFLteamsandtheircorrespondingUSLargeMetropolitanAreas
Arizona Cardinals
Corresponding Large Metropolitan Area (as defined by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics)
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area (SA)
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan SA
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan SA
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC Metropolitan SA
Chicago Bears
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan SA
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN Metropolitan SA
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH Metropolitan SA
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan SA
Denver Broncos
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO Metropolitan SA
Detroit Lions
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan SA
Green Bay Packers
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI Metropolitan SA
Houston Texans
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan SA
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN Metropolitan SA
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City, MO-KS Metropolitan SA
Miami Dolphins
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan SA
Minnesota Vikings
New England
Patriots
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants,
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders,
San Francisco
Forty-Niners
Philadelphia Eagles
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan SA
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh, PA Metropolitan SA
San Diego Chargers
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan SA
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan SA
St. Louis Rams
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans
Washington
Redskins
St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan SA
NFL Team(s)
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA Metropolitan SA
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan SA
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan SA
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan SA
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan SA
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN Metropolitan SA
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan SA
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.008
.006
.004
.002
0
kdensity ticket_price_premium
.01
FigureA1:Distributionsofobserved(blue),imputed(red),andcompleted(green)valuesfor
premiumtcketprice–x-axisrepresentstherangeofvaluesofpremiumticketprice(dollars)
100
200
300
x
Observed
Completed
400
500
600
Imputed
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