Habitat International 38 (2013) 25e33
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Habitat International
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/habitatint
Evolution and assessment on China’s urbanization 1960e2010:
Under-urbanization or over-urbanization?
Mingxing Chen a, b, *, Weidong Liu a, b, Xiaoli Tao c
a
Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
c
College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
b
a b s t r a c t
Keywords:
Evolution
Under-urbanization
Over-urbanization
Assessment
China
There has been a significant transformation in the urbanization and economic growth in post-reform
China. The nature and degree of urbanization is a subject of some controversy. This paper examines
empirical data for 110 counties and employs a quadrant plots method involving estimation of several parameters to analyze empirically the evolvement of urbanization in China during 1960e2010.
There are three periods of China’s urbanization in the pattern of world, which is the rapid decline stage
(1960e1978), the stable stage of ascension (1979e1995) and rapid promotion stage (1996e2010). Over
the entire period, compared to the rest of the world, urbanization and economic growth in China appears
to be coordinated and at moderate levels. However, China’s urbanization process has progressed faster
than economic growth since 2004, and it is right time that China should rethink under-urbanization and
it’s countermeasure in development strategy. And the core of new stage of urbanization is to improve the
quality of urbanization and to take little count of urbanization quantity.
Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Introduction
World urbanization trends have been irreversible since the
second half of the 20th century. The world’s population is
increasingly found in the cities. According to a report of world
urbanization prospects by United Nations, more than half of the
world’s population lived in urban areas by the end of 2008 (UNPD,
2010). Generally, levels of urbanization are closely correlated with
levels of economic development (Henderson, 2003). Demographic
processes of immigration and emigration are important determinants of urbanization, but these are in turn underpinned by other
processes, especially economic change. Developed countries are
considered to experience “parallel-urbanization”, achieving high
industrial growth and a parallel increase in the degree of urbanization. Most of these countries have entered the third stage of
urbanization, and the urbanization level has stabilized. The focus of
world urbanization had shifted to the developing world. Developed
and the developing countries pursue two different paths: in
developed countries urbanization and economic development
were synchronized, whereas developing counties over- and under* Corresponding author. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources
Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China. Tel.: þ86 10 6488 8267; fax: þ86 10 6488
9302.
E-mail address: [email protected] (M. Chen).
0197-3975/$ e see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2012.09.007
urbanization is common. A great deal of literature has been
generated dealing with the special characteristics of “over-urbanization” or “excessive-urbanization, common phenomena and
processes of formation, and the new challenges posed by developing countries (Cohen, 2006; Henderson, 2002; Skeldon, 1999).
The conclusions of this research have led to a basic consensus.
However, China’s road to urbanization has been thought of as
unique for it is neither identical with that of the developed economies nor does it duplicate the path of developing countries (Zhang
& Zhao, 2003), posing a puzzling riddle. In recent decades, a great
amount of ink has been spilled by planners, economists, and
geographers to paint a picture of China’s urbanization (Chen & Gao,
2011; Friedmann, 2006; Lin, 1998, 2007; Shen, 2005, 2006). Interestingly, as research opinions vary, no unanimous conclusion can
be drawn about China’s urbanization level. Some hold that in both
the pre-reform era and the period of economic transition, China has
tried to restrict ruraleurban migration and the number of people
entitled to an urban citizenship, while its economic growth seems
impressive. Despite very dynamic recent ruraleurban migration,
official figures as well as academic estimates of the level of
urbanization remain low. Indeed, China’s under-urbanization grew
in the recent period of reform, the reason being that economic
growth outpaced urbanization (Chang & Brada, 2006). However,
others believe that China has been eliminating this urbanization
gap during the post-1978 period as a result of its economic reforms.
26
M. Chen et al. / Habitat International 38 (2013) 25e33
China’s urban population increased dramatically from 170 million
in 1978 to 670 million in 2010 and the urban share of the total
population rose from a mere 18%e50%. The most noticeable
evidence associated with China’s over-urbanization is the
dramatic increases in the number of peasant workers (nongmingong in Chinese) and urbanization of land (Lu et al., 2007).
Although much effort is being spent examining China’s urbanization, it is clear that there is no shortage of controversy, and that
quantitative assessments are difficult (Zhang & Zhao, 2003). There
are two critical problems to be solved: one is identifying
a perspective for the study of dynamic evolutions; the other is
developing a quantitative method to assess effectively the relationship between levels of urbanization and economic development level.
In a cross-country panel data context, the purpose of this paper
is to design a quantitative analytical frame work and to come up
with a better understanding of the evolution of China’s urbanization. The paper is organized as follows. The next section will
introduce the research data and method. In section three, the
evolution of China’s urbanization is analyzed along three dimensions are examined. This will be followed by a discussion of three
viewpoints relating to the assessment of China’s urbanization.
Some conclusions are reached in the final section.
Research data and method
Data
Two key indicators are selected to measure the development
level, GDP per capita (GDPPC) and the urbanization level (URBANL).
The research data comes mainly from the World Bank online
database (http://data.worldbank.org/). GDP per capita is gross
domestic product divided by the midyear population. GDP is the
sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy
plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the
value of the products. It is calculated without making adjustments
for inflation for two main reasons: Firstly, a reliable and continuous
CPI index (showing the inflation rate) is not available. Only
a current price index of GDP per capita exists for the areas under
study. Secondly, Z-score normalization was applied to the panel
data used in this study. Using this method GDP per capita data can
be compared in ways that reduce the impact of changes in the CPI
on research results. The urbanization level is represented by the
ratio of the urban population to overall population. The urban
population refers to people living in urban areas as defined by
national statistical offices. It is calculated using World Bank population estimates and urban ratios from the United Nations World
Urbanization Prospects. The research draws on annual data for a 51
year period from 1960 to 2010. The geographical coverage of the
World Bank data is for a sample of 226 countries and regions in the
world. 110 sample points are retained, some of which are excluded
if sample data are missing in any year from 1960 to 2010.
There is considerable controversy about the urbanization level
in China. In spite of the fact that some scholars made effective
amendments to official city data, no revised time-series of urbanization data is as yet widely accepted. The data relating to China’s
urbanization level therefore comes from the “2011 China Statistical
Yearbook” published by Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. More
importantly, the Chinese official data is the basis for relevant
national urbanization policies.
The four-quadrants map method (FQM)
To determine whether the urbanization level in China outpaces
its economic development level, we used FQM method to assess
China’s urbanization in the past 51 years. Mathematically, the
Cartesian coordinate system in two dimensions is defined by an
ordered pair of perpendicular lines, a single unit of length for both
axes, and an orientation for each axis. The lines are referred to as
the x- and y-axis, where the x-axis is taken to be horizontal, and the
y-axis is taken to be vertical. The four quadrants into which a plane
is divided by the reference axes, axis X and axis Y, in a Cartesian
coordinate system, can be designated as, first (X > 0, Y > 0), second
(X < 0, Y > 0), third (X < 0, Y < 0) and, fourth (X > 0, Y < 0).
Indicators of the annual urbanization level and economic
development level in different countries form the columns and
rows of data respectively. The data was standardized by
computing the deviations of the two indicators from their
respective means. The data points for the different countries are
then plotted as a set of scattered points on a Cartesian coordinate
system. The location of each point depends on the degree of
deviation of the urbanization and economic development of each
country compared to the average level for all countries in research
sample. It is safe to say, in fact, that there is standard experienced
development pattern for all countries taken together. This standard pattern is the criterion against which each country is
compared. Each country’s path is compared against the world
development pattern.
Furthermore, it is important to note that FQM is particularly
reliant on an important assumption, namely that the proportion of
a country’s population living in urban areas is highly correlated
with its level of economic development. Although there may be
a situation in which the urbanization level exceeds or falls short of
the average for its level of economic development, most countries
in the world as a whole should maintain a long-term balanced
relationship between urbanization and economic development.
This assumption makes it possible to identify the nature of China’s
urbanization path by comparing it with the evolution of the
development pattern of all of the countries in the world taken
together.
Data processing
i) Two indicators GDPPC, URBANL data were normalized to
generate two new variables ZGDPPC and ZURBANL. Normalization served two purposes: first, it eliminated the influence
of the dimension of different data sources; second, it resulted
in the expression of the sample values for each year as
a number of standard deviations from the sample mean for
that year.
Z-score normalization involved computing
z ¼ ðxi xÞ=s
where: xi is the raw score of i country in the sample to be stanP
dardized; x is the mean of the indicator, x ¼
x=n; ands is
the
sample
standard
deviation
of
the
indicator,
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
P
s ¼
ðxi xÞ2 =ðn 1Þ.
ii) Plotting ZGDPPC on the X-axis, ZURBANL on the Y-axis,
different countries form a set of scatter points (ZGDPP, ZURBAN) in quadrant map.
Critical parameters and principles
i) A score, F, is computed as an indicator of a country’s overall
status as follows:
M. Chen et al. / Habitat International 38 (2013) 25e33
8
1ðif
>
>
<
2ðif
FðZGDPP; ZURBANÞ ¼
3ðif
>
>
:
4ðif
ZGDPP>0 and ZURBAN>0Þ
ZGDPP < 0 and ZURBAN>0Þ
ZGDPP < 0 and ZURBAN < 0Þ
ZGDPP>0 and ZURBAN < 0Þ
The overall state of a country’s relationship between urbanization and economic develop can be divided into four types. First,
coordinated with fast growth and fast urbanization (CFGFU)
exists when the scatter of F (ZGDPP, ZURBAN) is in the first
quadrant, corresponding to the co-existence of a high level of
economic development and a parallel high urbanization level.
Second, over-urbanization exists when the scatter of F (ZGDPP,
ZURBAN) is in the second quadrant, denoting a low level of
economic development, and a high level of urbanization; Third,
Coordinated with slow growth and slow urbanization (CSGSU)
exists when the scatter of F (ZGDPP, ZURBAN) is in the third
quadrant, corresponding to a combination of a low level of
economic development and a lower urbanization level. Fourth,
under-urbanization is said to exist when the scatter of F (ZGDPP,
ZURBAN) is in the fourth quadrant, combining a high level of
economic development and a low degree of urbanization (Fig. 1).
This method of identifying a country’s urbanization path provides
a simple initial approach but is insufficient. Every country’s
urbanization path is different for reasons that relate to the
particular conditions that exist in that country, and so deviations
from the average world path are to be expected. Small deviations
should however be distinguished from large ones as in Fig. 1
where the shaded areas are ones, typed of coordinated with
middle growth and middle urbanization (CMGMU), in which
deviations are relatively small.
ii) D identification of the evolution of a country’s URBANL or
GDPPC
DZURBANL ¼ ðZURBANL2 ZURBANL1 Þ
8
<
>0 faster than the average speed of the world
¼ 0 synchronization of the average speed of the world
:
< 0 slower than the average speed of the world
By means of a simple difference in the level of urbanization at
two points in time, we can identify the divergence of the speed of
urbanization of any country and the world’s average speed for that
period.
iii) K is an indicator of the relationship between the evolution of
urbanization and economic development
K ¼ ðZURBANLt ZURBANL0 Þ=ðZGDPPCt ZGDPPC0 Þ
With the help of the value of K, we can explore the direction
and extent of deviations in the relationship of urbanization and
economic development between any country and the world as
a whole. Assuming that the difference indicators for ZURBANL and
ZGDPPC are positive: K ¼ 1 shows that the relationship of
urbanization and economic development is fully synchronized
with the world pattern; when K > 1, indicates that the growth of
urbanization is faster than the economic growth in a country
compared to the world pattern, and the value of K indicates the
magnitude of the difference in speed; while K < 1 shows that the
growth of urbanization is slower than economic growth relative to
the world pattern, and the value of K indicates the extent to which
it is slower.
27
ZURBANL
1
2
High-class
Over-urbanization
0
3
Low-class
Coordination
ZGDPPC
4
Under-urbanization
Coordination
Fig. 1. Four-quadrants map of urbanization and economic development.
The process and evolution of urbanization in china
The urbanization level and urban population in China
To display some important characteristics of Chinese urbanization, the urbanization process is decomposed into three: the population (total and urban); urbanization (level and annual growth)
and population change (annual growth rate of the total and urban
population, annual change of the total and urban population). The
overall patterns of Chinese urbanization and urban migration can
be discerned from Table 1, which includes eight indicators for 5year periods from 1960 to 1990 and annually for the period
1990e2010.
A number of points emerge from the data in this table. First, in
spite of dramatic simultaneous increases in the size of the total
population and urban population, the growth of China’s total
population and its urban population were running in different
directions. The total population of China increased from 6620.7
million in 1960 to 13409.1 in 2010, an increase of 6788.4 million, or
of 102.5%. At the same time the number of people residing in urban
areas increased from 1307.3 million to 6697.8 million, an increase of
5390.5 million or of 412.3%. As stated above, over the past 50 years,
China’s total and urban population are increasing very quickly,
creating the largest flow of migration in the history of the world.
However, the annual size increase of the total population was
gradually decreasing, while the growth of the urban population
increased. These two opposite trends were a consequence of rapid
economic development of China.
Second, it is clear that the urbanization level has increased from
19.8% in 1960 to 50.2% in 2010, whereas the proportion of the
population that is rural has shown a gradual decrease over half
a century. This trend reflects a gradual increasing trend of urbanization. China is in an acceleration stage of the process of urbanization in general. There are two salient turning points in the
urbanization process. One occurred around 1980, prior to which
China’s pursued an anti-urbanization road. Anti-urbanization is
a demographic and social process whereby people move from
urban areas to rural areas. Recent research has documented the
social and political drivers of China’s distinctive anti-urbanization
path. Since 1980, China has pursued a path of fast urbanization
with a growth rate 0.53% per year. The second turning point was
1995, when the urbanization process further accelerated,
increasing at about 1.4% per year.
Third, ruraleurban migration gradually turns out to be the main
source of Chinese urban population growth in 1960e2010 (Zhang &
Song, 2003). China’s annual urban growth can be divided into three
parts: natural growth of urban population, stable rural to urban
populationemigration (for people possessing an urban hukou) and
28
M. Chen et al. / Habitat International 38 (2013) 25e33
Table 1
The status of China’s urbanization.
Year
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Population
Urbanization
Population change
Total population
(10,000)
Urban
population
(10,000)
Level (%)
Growth
annually (%)
Total population
growth rate
annually (%)
Urban
population
growth rate
annually (%)
Total
population
growth amount
annually (10,000)
Urban
population
growth amount
annually (10,000)
66,207
72,538
82,992
92,420
98,705
105,851
114,333
115,823
117,171
118,517
119,850
121,121
122,389
123,626
124,761
125,786
126,743
127,627
128,453
129,227
129,988
130,756
131,448
132,129
132,802
133,450
134,091
13,073
13,045
14,424
16,030
19,140
25,094
30,195
31,203
32,175
33,173
34,169
35,174
37,304
39,449
41,608
43,748
45,906
48,064
50,212
52,376
54,283
56,212
58,288
60,633
62,403
64,512
66,978
19.8
18.0
17.4
17.3
19.4
23.7
26.4
26.9
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
30.5
31.9
33.4
34.8
36.2
37.7
39.1
40.5
41.8
43.0
44.3
45.9
47.0
48.3
50.0
e
0.35
0.12
0.01
0.41
0.86
0.54
0.53
0.52
0.53
0.52
0.53
1.44
1.43
1.44
1.43
1.44
1.44
1.43
1.44
1.23
1.23
1.35
1.55
1.10
1.35
1.61
e
1.84
2.73
2.18
1.32
1.41
1.55
1.30
1.16
1.15
1.12
1.06
1.05
1.01
0.92
0.82
0.76
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.59
0.59
0.53
0.52
0.51
0.49
0.48
e
0.04
2.03
2.13
3.61
5.57
3.77
3.34
3.12
3.10
3.00
2.94
6.06
5.75
5.47
5.14
4.93
4.70
4.47
4.31
3.64
3.55
3.69
4.02
2.92
3.38
3.82
e
1266
2091
1886
1257
1429
1696
1490
1348
1346
1333
1271
1268
1237
1135
1025
957
884
826
774
761
768
692
681
673
648
641
e
6
276
321
622
1191
1020
1008
972
998
996
1005
2130
2145
2159
2140
2158
2158
2148
2164
1907
1929
2076
2345
1770
2109
2466
Source: These values were computed from the China Statistical Yearbook 2011.
unstable rural to urban population migration (involving a floating
population with a rural hukou). Since 1980, the urban population
annual growth rate stood at 3e5%, while the total population
increase was only 0.5e1%. Obviously, a large part of urban population growth derives from ruraleurban migration, and the size of
the floating population with a rural hukou is growing rapidly,
although there is no precise statistical data.
China’s urbanization evolution in prospect of world’s pattern
Based on the aforementioned methods and data, Fig. 2 shows
the annual evolution of ZURBANL and DZURBANL in the period of
1960e2010. The main results are several folds.
The turning point in the evolution of DZURBANL was in 1979.
From this point onwards, the value of DZURBANL remained negative until 1979, which indicated that China’s urbanization level
continued to fall relative to the world as a whole, mainly because of
the slower pace of urbanization compared with the other countries
in sample. After 1979, the DZURBANL value exceeded zero, indicating relatively stronger urbanization in China compared with the
rest of the sample. These results conform with the timing table of
China’s reform and opening-up.
China’s urbanization has gone through three distinct phases:
a rapid decline stage (1960e1978); a stable phase of ascension
(1979e1995); and a phase of rapid promotion (1996e2010). In the
first stage, it is clear that the relative position of China’s urbanization level fell substantially, from 0.63 in 1960 to 1.11 in 1978,
compared with the other countries in the sample. In the same
period, China’s urbanization level decreased from 19.7% to 17.9%,
changing very slowly. The growth of the urbanization level of other
countries was the main reason for the decline in China’s relative
position. In the second stage, stable growth of ZURBAN value from
Fig. 2. Evolution of ZURBANL and DZURBANL during the period of 1960e2010.
M. Chen et al. / Habitat International 38 (2013) 25e33
1.09 in 1979 to 0.95 in 1995 shows that the urbanization process
outpaced that in other countries during this period. China’s
urbanization level increased from just 19% in 1979 to 29% in 1995.
In the third stage, the rapid linear growth of the annual ZURBANL
value reveals that China’s urbanization grew at faster pace from
1996 to 2010. The value of ZURBAN increased from 0.92 in 1996 to
0.33 in 2010, while the urbanization level also increased from
30.48% to 49.95%.
In order to avoid possible bias associated with the choice of
sample, further steps were taken to verify the reliability of the
above conclusions. The data for the world as a whole was divided
into three groups. Type A represents all countries in the world, type
B comprises China, and type C comprises all of the countries in the
world excluding China. Comparisons of annual urban growth rates
were made for each of the three periods (Fig. 3). The results show
that the process of urbanization in China is unique, and in 1960e
2010 can be divided into three stages. With the onset era of
reform and opening-up since 1979, China’s urbanization developed
rapidly, and accelerated after 1995, contributing significantly to the
world’s urbanization process.
Generally, these observations can be used to identify the way
China’s urbanization has changed relative to the world as a whole,
although confining analysis to time series data for an index of
urbanization limits the scope of the conclusions.
The evolution of China’s urbanization and its relation to economic
growth
In this section we start from the assumption that urbanization
and economic growth are closely related, and compare the relationship between these variables in China relative to the rest of the
world and derive some conclusions regarding the reasonableness of
China’s urbanization path in 1960e2010.
Fig. 4a shows the overall evolution of China’s urbanization and
economic growth in 1960e2010, selecting data at an interval of five
years. It is very clear that China’s urbanization level and economic
growth moved progressively in the opposite direction to the world
pattern in 1960e1980. In contrast, its performance relative to the
world increased rapidly in 1980e2010. Fig. 4b indicates in more
detail the decline in the relative position both of China’s urbanization and economic growth in the world during the period 1960e
1970. Fig. 4c indicates that China’s urbanization level and economic
growth continued to move down and away from world averages in
1971e1980, but the decline was small compared with the previous
10 years. What is more, the value of ZURBANL and ZGDPPC rose
slightly in 1979 and 1980. Fig. 4d shows that China reversed the tide
in 1981e1990. The urbanization level and economic growth started
Fig. 3. Comparison of China’s urbanization and the world in 1960e1978, 1979e1994
and 1995e2010.
29
to increase gradually relative to the world pattern, but declined
slightly in 1989 and 1990. The relationship between urbanization
and economic growth differed significantly between the first 5
years and the second 5 years in 1991e2000. Both the urbanization
level and economic growth in China steadily increased in the first 5
years, but the growth of urbanization level was very fast and
coincided with slower global economic development in the second
5 years. A part of the explanation for these trends was the soft
landing of China’s economy and the Asian Financial Crisis of 1996.
Most spectacular was the development miracle of China’s rapidly
growing economy and rising urbanization during the last decade
(Fig. 4f).
The diagonal in Fig. 4 represents a set of dots, which indicates
the relationship of urbanization and economic growth in the world
as a whole. When a point lies on the upper left-hand side of the
diagonal line, it indicates that relative level of urbanization is
higher than the relative level of economic development, and that
the speed of urbanization outpaces economic growth. On the
contrary, urbanization lags behind economic growth when the dot
lies on the lower right-hand side of the diagonal line. Therefore
China’s urbanization level lags behind its economic development
level in 1960e2003, but from 2004 onwards, the relative level of
urbanization gradually outpaced the relative level of economic
development.
Calculations of the K value are reported in Table 2. At first
economic development and the urbanization process was very
slow, and the urbanization level decreased faster than economic
growth in 1960e1980. In 1980e1990 China embarked on the
middle stage of industrialization, after it started out on a programme of reform and opening up. In this period urbanization
speed increased relative to the world as a whole, while after 1985
the effects of reform were reflected in faster relative growth.
Between 1990 and 1995, urbanization, and economic growth achieved coordinated development (using the world average as
a norm). In 1995e2010, accelerating urbanization outstripped
relative economic growth.
Assessments
China’s economic development and urbanization relative to the
world as a norm has greatly improved, approaching the world
average levels, coordinated with middle growth and middle
urbanization
During 1960e2010, all values of ZGDPPC and ZURBANL are less
than zero, and all of the points (Fig. 4) lie in the third quadrant.
These values suggest that China’s urbanization is associated with an
average degree of coordination of urbanization and growth. It is
safe to say, in fact, that over a long period China’s urbanization and
economic development were associated with a “double-low”: low
scores on each indicator. In 2010, the value of ZURBANL and
ZGDPPC is larger than 0.5, typed of coordinated with middle
growth and middle urbanization, in which deviations are relatively
small.
In Fig. 5 we graph China’s urbanization level and the average for
world using the urban population ratio. As can be seen, China
embarked on rapid urbanization in the post-1978 period as a result
of its reform and opening-up policy. China’s urbanization gap
compared to the world average level gradually declined and was
eliminated in 2010. In Fig. 6, a comparison of China’s GDP per capita
and the average of world is depicted. Though the analysis of the
absolute GDP per capita gap and relative GDP per capita gap
between China and the world average from 1960 to 2010, we can
see that relative GDP per capita gap decreased after 1990, although
it has still not reached the world average.
30
M. Chen et al. / Habitat International 38 (2013) 25e33
Fig. 4. China’s urbanization and its relation to economic growth 1960e2010.
M. Chen et al. / Habitat International 38 (2013) 25e33
Table 2
The change of K value during 1960e2010.
Year
K value
The relative position of China in the world
and relationship
Urbanization
level
Economic
growth
Relationship
Under-urbanization
Under-urbanization
Under-urbanization
Under-urbanization
Urbanization
outpaces
economic growth
Under-urbanization
Coordinated
development
Urbanization
outpaces
economic growth
Urbanization
outpaces
economic growth
Urbanization
outpaces
economic growth
1960e1965
1965e1970
1970e1975
1975e1980
1980e1985
1.70
7.31
6.52
33.22
5.82
decreasing
decreasing
decreasing
decreasing
increasing
decreasing
decreasing
decreasing
increasing
decreasing
1985e1990
1990e1995
0.30
1.08
increasing
increasing
increasing
increasing
1995e2000
50.40
increasing
decreasing
2000e2005
5.04
increasing
increasing
2005e2010
2.30
increasing
increasing
China’s urbanization process has progressed faster than economic
growth in recent years, and China’s under-urbanization has changed
gradually from 1978
Since 1995, China’s urbanization process has proceeded faster
than economic growth; and China’s under-urbanization early in
reform and opening-up period has effectively been reversed.
Prevalent views are closely associated with accelerating urbanization. Most scholars believe that China had been under-urbanized
relative to countries at a comparable level of development (Chang
& Brada, 2006). The continued increase in the share of the population living in urban areas in recent decades has been welcomed
by many economists, who view urbanization as a positive
achievement on the path toward wealth and prosperity. According
to this view, urbanization underpins and enhances economic
growth and therefore increases the wealth of nations in the long
run. Governments have often undertaken active policies affecting
the urbanization process (Bloom, Canning, & Fink, 2008).
31
Consequently, scholarly literatures on China’s demographic development as well as the pronouncements of Chinese policy makers
have hailed the country’s growing urbanization levels as a sign of
progress. Indeed, the acceleration of urbanization has become
a central part of China’s national development strategy in past
decade (Chang & Brada, 2006). Many people have also proposed
a speeding up the urbanization process; and policy-makers hope to
increase economic growth by accelerating urbanization.
In 1995e2010, ZGDPPC values increasing from 0.62094 to
0.49219, ZURBANL values increased rapidly from 0.96588 to
0.32786, indicating that during that period China’s economic level
increased to a certain extent, while its degree of urbanization
increased at an amazing rate. The year 2004 marked a turning point
in the relationship between China’s urbanization and economic
development, in that the relative level of urbanization came to
exceed the relative level of economic development.
Rapid urbanization in China was achieved in a short-time, but there
are risks that some relevant policies fall behind
Although urbanization is of great importance as an indicator of
the socio-economic development level of a country or region, rapid
urbanization in China has generated severe challenges and some
phenomena that are matters of concern. Firstly, accelerating the
growth of urbanization has been put forward as a key strategy by
many municipal governments. Although the urbanization of the
population increases at a faster rate than is reasonable, the media
have been pressing for a speeding-up of the growth rate, and some
municipal governments pay too much attention to the quantity of
urbanization relative to other regions, and too little attention to the
quality of urbanization. Secondly, land urbanization develops much
faster than population urbanization. The spatial expansion of cities
in the form of new urban districts, development zones, government
office areas and university towns has escaped control. In 1981, the
size of urban built-up area in China was 7438 km2. In 2010 it
reached 40,058 km2. Comprehensive urban land occupation per
capita increased from 52 m2 to 113 m2. George Lin argues that one
of the main traits of Chinese urbanism is the fast growth of urban
size and peri-urbanization. Thirdly, peri-urbanization predominates and the quality of urbanization remains low. On the basis of
abundant informal employment and a low degree of spatial
agglomeration of industries and population, it leads to the creation
Fig. 5. The evolution of China’s urbanization and the world average in 1960e2010.
32
M. Chen et al. / Habitat International 38 (2013) 25e33
Fig. 6. The evolution of China’s GDP per capita and the world average in 1960e2010.
of unique landscapes where there is no obvious distinction
between the rural area and urban area. Fourthly, it is the population
of migrant rural workers that grows steadily, yet these migrants do
not have sufficient capacity to live in urban areas. Although migrant
rural workers spend most of their time working in urban areas,
urban public services, such as the employment service, education,
social security, medical treatment and public health, originally
provided for local citizens are not open to them,. As a result many of
their family members and offspring are stuck rural areas, although
they should be regarded as urban citizens. Last, there are growing
risks associated with resource-environment pressures and food
security issues. Urban expansion has occupied seen the conversion
to urban use of high quality arable land, and it is extremely difficult
to compensate for the loss of valuable cropland.
In a few word, urbanization in China lacks a sufficient supporting
system of industrialization. And yet it has already arrived at a situation
where one-half of the population is urban. Compared with the fast
growing urbanization, some policies fall behind. Examples are the
household registration system and the income distribution system.
Keeping abreast of rapid urbanization raises important challenges
pertaining to the use of resources and the environment, the economic
base of cities, social problems and infrastructure provision. Accelerating urbanization may cause even more troublesome problems.
national pathways to development. As a result there is no need to
be concern as to whether there is serious under-urbanization or
over-urbanization. Every country has its own particularities. The
global average provides a reference point against which national
pathways can be compared. China today does not deviate far from
the world average. What is must guard however against excessive
urbanization and against excessive peri-urbanization. To achieve
sustainable urban development in China, government and policy
makers should give less emphasis to the quantity of growth and the
growth rate in a context of fast growing urbanization, and should
mainly focus upon the reform of relevant policies so as to keep
abreast of growing urbanization, improving, for example, the
income and income guarantee level for migrant rural workers,
granting urban status to qualified rural workers and protecting the
resource environment, especially high quality arable land.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported jointly by the EU project URBACHINA
(Grant No. FP7-266941), the National Natural Science Foundation of
China (Grant No. 41001080) and Key Project for the Strategic
Science Plan in IGSNRR, CAS (Grant No. 2012ZD006). The insightful
and constructive comments of professor Mick Dunford (Sussex
University and IGSNRR) and anonymous reviewers are appreciated.
Conclusions
In relation to the controversial issue of the urbanization level in
China, the FQM method was used to analyze quantitatively the
evolution of the relationship between urbanization and economic
development in China relative to the world as a whole using
empirical data on levels of urbanization and economic development for 110 counties. The analysis led to a number of conclusions.
Urbanization has increased a great deal under the strategy of
urbanization acceleration in recent years. Compared to other
countries, the growth rate of the level of urbanization in China is
much faster than that of economic development, and a state of
relative under-urbanization had been improved.
The relationship between the levels of urbanization and
economic development in China places it in a category of relatively
moderate degree compared with the world pattern and using the
average pattern in the world is a norm or standard for assessing
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