Instant Credit
Engineering
Sweden
10 February 2015
Hexagon
BBB+/Stable
Corporate rating:
Public ratings
Moody’s:
S&P:
Fitch:
N.R.
N.R.
N.R.
Market cap (SEKm)
104,465
Relative value, BBB SEK unrated
Spread (bps)
140
Arla
120
Husqvarna
100
BillerudKorsnäs
ICA
Getinge
80
NCC
Tele2
60
MTG
40
Saab
20
Hexagon
PostNord
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
Years to maturity
6
Source: SEB and Bloomberg
Adj. net debt/EBITDA & adj. FFO/net debt
8.0
35%
7.0
30%
6.0
25%
5.0
20%
Strong Q4 results support our credit view
● All-time-high EBITA and operating cash flow
Hexagon reported all-time high EBITDA, EBITDA margin, FFO and operating cash in
its Q4 results, which demonstrates that its business model works and supports our
BBB+ credit rating. The 9% organic growth was a three year high; investments in
product development are paying off, with new product areas representing around
4pp of this growth. The record high EBITDA margin of 30% was supported by
acquisitions and to, some extent, favourable currency effects. Operating cash flow
was EUR EUR 194m compared with EUR 147m in Q4 2013. Reported net
debt/EBITDA of 2.6x was somewhat higher than a year ago (2.3x), while on an
adjusted basis, net debt/EBITDA was 2.8x compared with 2.6x at the end of 2013.
Our credit view is based on Hexagon’s strong business risk profile, which allows for
somewhat stretched leverage; although we believe the overall financial risk profile is
moderate. Credit-supporting factors include a track record of healthy organic growth,
high and stable EBITDA margins (above Nordic industrial companies), strong cash
flow generation, a market leading position and a high share of recurring revenues.
Revenue diversification and a strong ownership structure are credit supportive. Key
credit weaknesses include a heavy M&A strategy (which has included large
acquisitions), a shareholder friendly policy and somewhat stretched leverage.
● Bond recommendation
We initiate recommendation on Hexagon’s 2019 SEK bonds with an Overweight
recommendation, as these bonds are indicated at around similar spreads as ICA
Gruppen and Arla, both of which have BBB shadow ratings.
Source: SEB, Hexagon
● A strong Q4 and a favourable outlook
Hexagon’s strong Q4 results were slightly above our and market consensus (SME)
expectations. Sales of EUR 743m were 3% higher than consensus and up 18% y-oy. Organic growth was 9% compared with our estimated of 7%. EBIT of EUR 174m
was 4% higher than our and consensus estimates of EUR 167m and up 28% y-o-y.
EBIT was positively affected by EUR 8m from currency. Hexagon delivered a record
high EBIT margin of 23.5% (we estimated 23.1%), compared with 21.6% in Q4 2013.
Metrology and Technology were the main sources of growth. Sales expanded by 7%
in EMEA, 6% in the Americas and 16% in Asia. The company does not provide a
formal outlook, but CEO Ola Rollén’s comments about 2015 were upbeat. The board
proposed a 2014 dividend of EUR 0.35, in line with our estimate of EUR 0.34. We
have upgraded our 2015 and 2016 EBIT estimates by 8% and 9%, respectively.
Analyst
Key credit metrics & ratios
4.0
15%
3.0
10%
2.0
5%
1.0
0.0
Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14
Adjusted Net debt to EBITDA
Adjusted FFO to net debt
Mats Nyström
(46) 8 5062 3311
[email protected]
The estimates in this research report have been produced in
collaboration with SEB equity research analysts
www.seb.se
0%
Revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA margin
Adjusted EBIT margin
Adjusted EBITDA net int. cover. (x)
Adjusted net debt to EBITDA (x)
Adjusted net debt to capital
Adjusted FFO / Net debt
2011
46.8%
25.7%
20.3%
8.3
3.5
44%
21%
2012
9.7%
26.7%
20.8%
9.7
2.9
40%
28%
2013
2.1%
26.8%
20.7%
13.4
2.6
37%
33%
2014
7.9%
29.5%
21.2%
16.7
2.8
38%
29%
2015E
19.7%
31.3%
23.6%
21.6
1.8
32%
44%
Source: SEB
Important. All disclosure information can be found on pages 4 – 5 of this document
2016E
7.3%
32.6%
24.7%
27.1
1.3
24%
65%
2017E
7.0%
33.5%
25.3%
31.8
0.7
14%
122%
Instant Credit
Hexagon
Credit strengths
Credit concerns
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Solid organic revenue growth.
Market position. Hexagon is a global leader with some 20% global market share
in its defined segments.
High share of recurring revenues with software and services accounting for some
50% of sales.
High and stable EBITDA and EBIT margins.
Solid cash generation and high cash conversion.
●
M&A heavy strategy, including significant acquisitions.
A shareholder friendly financial policy.
Leverage is somewhat stretched.
Increasing competitive pressure in Geosystems, implying pressure on
Hexagon to increase R&D spending.
Intangible assets dominate the balance sheet.
Selected outstanding bonds
Sector
SEK
SEK
Issuer
Hexagon
Hexagon
Public
N.R./N.R.
N.R./N.R.
SEB
BBB+
BBB+
Issue date
2014-11-26
2014-11-26
Maturity date
2019-11-26
2019-11-26
Cpn type
Fixed
Floating
Amount
SEK 1250m
SEK 750m
Cpn
1.6%
3mS+95
Sprd mid
88
88
Recommendation
Overweight
Overweight
Source: Bloomberg and SEB
Relative value, BBB SEK
Regional distribution of sales – 2014
Spread (bps)
140
Arla
120
Husqvarna
100
BillerudKorsnäs
Asia
27%
ICA
Getinge
80
EMEA
40%
NCC
Tele2
60
MTG
40
Saab
20
Hexagon
PostNord
0
0
1
4
5
2
3
Years to maturity
6
Americas
33%
Source: SEB and Bloomberg
Source: SEB, Hexagon
Financial statement summary (EURm)
Revenues and EBITDA margin
Income statement
Adjusted revenues
Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBIT
2013
2,430
650.3
502.1
2014
2,622
773.2
554.8
2015E
3,139
982.7
742.2
2016E
3,369
1,098
832.2
Cash flow statement
Funds from operations (FFO)
Change in working capital
Operating Cash Flow
Free Operating cash flow
2013
533.5
-31.7
501.8
283.4
2014
619.1
-55.6
563.5
316.8
2015E
772.5
-75.3
697.1
482.1
2016E
873.4
-71.9
801.5
586.5
Balance sheet
Adjusted cash (and equivalents)
Adjusted total debt
Adjusted net debt
Adjusted equity
2013
176.0
1,861
1,685
2,846
2014
228.6
2,386
2,157
3,470
2015E
585.7
2,386
1,800
3,902
2016E
1,011
2,386
1,375
4,375
Key credit metrics & ratios
Adjusted net debt to EBITDA (x)
Adjusted net debt to capital
Adjusted FFO / Net debt
Adjusted RCF / Net debt
Equity ratio
2013
2.6
37%
33%
27%
52%
2014
2.8
38%
29%
24%
51%
2015E
1.8
32%
44%
37%
53%
2016E
1.3
24%
65%
54%
56%
Source: SEB and Hexagon financial reports
SEB Credit Research
(EURm)
4,000
(%)
40
3,000
30
2,000
20
1,000
10
0
2012
2013
2014
Total revenues
2015E
2016E
EBITDA margin
2017E
0
Adjusted net debt / EBITDA
(x)
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
Source: SEB and Hexagon financial reports
10 February 2015
2
Instant Credit
Profit & loss statement
Hexagon
(EURm)
Total revenues
Total expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation
Intangibles amortisation
EBIT
Associated companies
Net interest expenses
Value changes
Other financial items
2005
1,049
-925
124
-28
0
96
-3
-15
0
0
2006
1,447
-1,169
279
-81
0
198
0
-24
0
0
2007
1,581
-1,266
315
-68
0
246
-3
-20
0
0
2008
1,358
-1,059
299
-71
0
229
0
-31
0
0
2009
1,112
-890
222
-71
0
151
0
-15
0
0
2010
1,477
-1,237
240
-89
0
152
0
-41
0
0
2011
2,169
-1,635
534
-103
0
431
0
-59
0
0
2012
2,380
-1,774
605
-121
0
485
5
-56
0
0
2013
2,430
-1,807
622
-130
0
493
5
-39
0
0
2014
2,622
-1,887
735
-193
0
542
0
-34
0
0
2015E
3,139
-2,194
945
-215
0
730
0
-33
0
0
2016E
3,369
-2,310
1,060
-240
0
820
0
-28
0
0
2017E
3,605
-2,434
1,171
-270
0
901
0
-25
0
0
Reported pre-tax profit
Minority interests
Total taxes
77
-1
-10
174
-1
-36
223
-1
-26
198
-1
-24
136
-1
-18
111
-2
-19
372
-2
-75
434
-3
-83
459
-3
-88
509
-3
-102
697
-2
-139
792
-3
-158
876
-3
-175
Net profit
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin (%)
Tax rate (%)
Growth rates y-o-y (%)
Total revenues
EBITDA
EBIT
Pre-tax profit
67
11.8
9.1
12.5
137
19.3
13.6
20.9
195
19.9
15.6
11.8
172
22.0
16.8
12.1
117
20.0
13.6
13.0
90
16.3
10.3
17.3
295
24.6
19.9
20.2
348
25.4
20.4
19.2
368
25.6
20.3
19.1
403
28.0
20.7
20.1
555
30.1
23.2
20.0
630
31.4
24.3
20.0
697
32.5
25.0
20.0
16.0
n.a.
40.3
30.1
38.0
125.3
106.6
125.6
9.2
12.9
24.6
28.2
(14.1)
(4.8)
(7.1)
(11.4)
(18.1)
(25.9)
(34.0)
(31.2)
32.9
8.3
0.6
(18.3)
46.8
122.1
184.3
235.1
9.7
13.4
12.4
16.6
2.1
2.8
1.7
5.7
7.9
18.1
10.0
10.9
19.7
28.5
34.6
37.0
7.3
12.2
12.3
13.6
7.0
10.5
9.9
10.6
2005
73
-153
-80
-48
-127
-13
-584
-725
568
15
0
-142
2006
203
-78
125
-90
35
-29
0
6
-264
298
-28
12
2007
250
-35
215
-89
126
-48
-328
-250
365
0
0
114
2008
259
-276
-17
-193
-209
-66
-26
-301
27
0
-2
-277
2009
171
37
208
-103
105
-14
0
91
-125
0
0
-33
2010
246
-34
213
-90
123
-35
-1,595
-1,507
862
719
10
83
2011
393
-40
353
-140
213
-57
-95
60
-98
-6
-1
-44
2012
494
3
497
-172
324
-63
-81
181
-177
0
10
14
2013
534
-32
502
-218
283
-102
-71
111
-106
23
17
45
2014
619
-56
564
-247
317
-110
-550
-344
353
30
13
53
2015E
772
-75
697
-215
482
-125
0
357
0
0
0
357
2016E
873
-72
802
-215
587
-161
0
426
0
0
0
426
2017E
970
-18
952
-215
737
-179
0
559
0
0
0
559
4.5
6.2
5.6
9.3
3.6
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.6
9.4
6.8
6.4
6.0
(EURm)
Cash and liquid assets
Other current assets
Long-term financial assets
Fixed tangible assets
Intangibles
Total assets
2005
47
511
58
232
1,132
1,979
2006
53
594
60
232
1,110
2,050
2007
170
668
60
240
1,494
2,633
2008
84
653
63
174
1,537
2,511
2009
77
568
70
165
1,599
2,480
2010
160
892
85
274
3,595
5,007
2011
116
1,009
117
229
3,872
5,344
2012
131
1,005
127
239
3,932
5,434
2013
176
1,017
121
253
3,907
5,474
2014
229
1,182
91
312
4,999
6,812
2015E
586
1,324
91
312
4,999
7,311
2016E
1,011
1,409
91
287
4,999
7,797
2017E
1,570
1,457
91
232
4,999
8,348
Interest bearing debt
Other liabilities
Minority interests
Shareholders' equity
Total liabilities and equity
949
457
5
569
1,979
672
426
5
946
2,049
1,051
521
5
1,056
2,633
1,005
409
5
1,092
2,511
914
349
5
1,213
2,480
1,964
870
6
2,166
5,007
1,864
954
7
2,519
5,344
1,691
970
7
2,765
5,434
1,599
1,028
7
2,840
5,474
2,031
1,311
11
3,459
6,812
2,031
1,377
13
3,889
7,311
2,031
1,391
16
4,359
7,797
2,031
1,420
19
4,877
8,348
Net debt (m)
Net debt/equity (%)
Equity/total assets (%)
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
EBITDA Interest cover
961
167.7
29.0
7.8
8.2
673
70.7
46.4
2.4
11.7
927
87.4
40.3
2.9
15.9
975
88.9
43.7
3.3
9.6
814
66.8
49.1
3.7
15.0
1,869
86.0
43.4
7.8
5.9
1,787
70.7
47.3
3.3
9.1
1,612
58.1
51.0
2.7
10.9
1,489
52.3
52.0
2.4
15.9
1,890
54.5
50.9
2.6
21.9
1,533
39.3
53.4
1.6
27.9
1,107
25.3
56.1
1.0
33.3
548
11.2
58.7
0.5
36.8
(%) Votes
47.5
4.5
3.5
Capital
26.5
6.2
4.8
Cash flow
(EURm)
FFO
Changes in working capital
Operating cash flow
Net capital expenditures
Free operating cash flow
Dividend paid
Acquisitions, divestments net
Pre-financing cash flow
Net loan proceeds
Share issue
Other
Net change in cash
Capex/sales (%)
Balance sheet
Main shareholders
Name
Melker Schörling and Co.
Capital Group
Ramsbury Invest AB
Management
Title
COB
CEO
CFO
Name
Melker Schörling
Ola Rollén
Robert Belkic
Company information
Contact
Internet
Phone number
www.hexagon.se
(46) 8 601 2620
Company description: Hexagon's core division, Measurement Technologies (MT) is divided into three sub-segments: Metrology (33% of sales),
Geosystems (36% of sales) and Technology (31% of sales). Hexagon is the market leader with a 14% market share, ahead of peers such as Trimble and
Topcon, and has acted as a consolidator in the metrology market. Hexagon acquired Intergraph (a US-based software company) in 2010, raising software
sales from 20% of the total to 40%. This industry has historically enjoyed around 5-8% average annual growth in demand for measuring machines and
associated metrology equipment in all segments.
Please note: The data in several tables and charts in this document have been adjusted in line with common practice in the field of credit research. This
mainly refers to adjustments of operating leases, pensions, derivatives and other contingent liabilities. For a detailed breakdown of the adjustments, please
contact the author of this report.
SEB Credit Research
10 February 2015
3
Instant Credit
Hexagon
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We, the authors of this report, hereby confirm that notwithstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interest referred to herein, the views expressed in this report
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The analysis and valuations, projections and forecasts contained in this report are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and
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SEB Credit Research
10 February 2015
4
Instant Credit
Hexagon
Company specific disclosures and potential conflicts of interest:
A member of, or an entity associated with, SEB or its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or shareholders of such members (a) is not, and has never been, represented on
the board of directors or similar supervisory entity of Hexagon, (b) has from time to time bought or sold the securities issued by the company or options relating to the company,
(c) SEB or its affiliates beneficially own less than 1% of a class of common equity securities of Hexagon, and (d) SEB or its affiliates beneficially do not own debt securities of
Hexagon, as of 31 Jan 2015.
SEB or its affiliates is, or has within the last 12 months been or expects in the next 3 months to be, party to an agreement relating to the provision of investment banking
services to Hexagon or an affiliate, or has received from it fees or the promise of fees in respect of such services.
The analyst(s) responsible for this research report (jointly with their closely related persons) hold(s) 0 shares in Hexagon and do(es) not have holdings in other instruments
related to the company.
Explanation of Credit Research recommendations:
SEB derives its Recommendations from its appraisal of the Credit Rating of the issuer (itself derived from business risk profile and financial risk profile and from other factors).
SEB uses the following recommendation system for the corporate bond market:
Overweight – over the next six months we expect a position in this instrument to exceed the relevant index, sector or benchmark.
Marketweight – over the next six months we expect a position in this instrument to perform in line with the relevant index, sector or benchmark.
Underweight – over the next six months we expect a position in this instrument to underperform the relevant index, sector or benchmark.
SEB uses the following recommendation system for CDS spreadsheets:
Buy – we expect the CDS to outperform the sector performance
Neutral – we take a neutral view on the CDS, and do not recommend either a buy or sell
Sell – we expect the CDS spreads to underperform the sector performance.
Credit Watch Negative – When an identifiable event or short term trend has occurred and when additional information is needed to evaluate the impact on the current rating
but the likely outcome is a negative rating change.
Credit Watch Positive - When an identifiable event or short term trend has occurred and when additional information is needed to evaluate the impact on the current rating but
the likely outcome is a positive rating change.
Credit Watch Developing – When an identifiable event or short term trend has occurred and when additional information is needed to evaluate the impact on the current
rating and the likely outcome is uncertain
SEB also assigns credit ratings, definitions of which can be found on our website: https://taz.vv.sebank.se/cgi-bin/pts3/mc6/MB/research.nsf?opendatabase&login
Methodology
SEB’s Credit Research assigns its credit rating to an issuer based on the assessment of an issuer’s business risk profile as well as its financial risk profile. The business risk
profile includes country risk, industry risk, competitive position, and profitability. The financial risk profile includes financial policies, accounting, cash flow adequacy, capital
structure and liquidity. The outcome of the assessment of the two risk profiles is weighed together for a final overall rating.
In addition to SEB’s credit rating assessment, other factors considered in a particular issuer include the credit ratings assigned to a specific issuer by independent agencies,
the value and market price of its securities, macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, promised coupon or yield of the specific instruments, and historical spread
developments.
Credit Research Distribution (as of 1 Dec 2014)
A*
Overweight
17.3%
Marketweight
63.0%
Underweight
19.7%
B*
5.9%
17.3%
6.5%
A* denotes recommendations for all companies covered
B* denotes recommendation for companies to which SEB has provided investment banking services in the last 12 months.
Recommendation History
Instrument
Hexagon 26 Nov 2019 1.6
Hexagon 26 Nov 2019 3mS+95
Recommendation
Overweight
Overweight
Date
10 Feb 2015
10 Feb 2015
Recommendation changes by SEB Credit Research Analysts in the subject company over the past 12 months. If no recommendation changes were made in that period, the
most recent change is stated.
SEB Credit Research
10 February 2015
5
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