Morning Comment
AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit
Friday 28 April 2017
07:31 am
No surprises from the ECB
Yesterday’s main event, the ECB policy meeting, concluded as
expected, with no changes to interest rates. There were also no
major surprises from either the meeting statement or President
Draghi’s subsequent press-conference.
The ECB is becoming more optimistic about the economic outlook,
pointing to improving data. However, it continued to emphasise
that monetary policy will need to remain highly accommodative in
order to achieve a sustained pick-up in inflation. It was also noted
that the risks to the economic outlook remain “tilted to the
downside”.
Today's Opening Rates
% Change
Day *
End 2016
EUR/USD
1.0869
-0.33
3.39
EUR/GBP
GBP/USD
0.8423
-0.58
-1.12
1.2901
0.27
4.58
GBP/EUR
USD/JPY
EUR/JPY
1.1865
0.58
1.13
111.22
-0.04
-4.83
120.89
-0.35
-1.83
* v Previous Day's European Open
See Next Page f or M ore Rat es
Currency-wise, given that there was little sign that the ECB was
moving towards changing its easing bias, the meeting acted as a
modest drag on the euro. As a result, the EUR/USD pair has moved
further below the $1.09 level.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
1.14
1.12
1.10
Elsewhere, sterling has adopted a modestly firmer tone. This
combined with the aforementioned slightly softer tone to the euro
sees EUR/GBP open this morning trading down near the 84p mark.
Meanwhile, cable (GBP/USD) continues to edge higher, trading up
at the $1.29 level for the first time since October.
Turning to the day ahead, a busy macro calendar includes GDP
figures from a number of countries. Growth is forecast to have
slowed in the UK to 0.4%, from 0.7% in Q4. This partly reflects an
expected negative impact from higher prices on activity/spending.
The data may prove somewhat unhelpful to sterling today.
Likewise, US annualised GDP is forecast to have slowed from 2.1%
to 1.2% largely as a result of weaker consumer spending. Such an
outcome may act as a headwind to the dollar.
Dara Turnbull, Economist, AIB
1.08
1.06
1.04
1.02
31-Oct
28-Nov
26-Dec
23-Jan
20-Feb
20-Mar
17-Apr
20-Mar
17-Apr
Euro/Sterling Exchange Rate
0.92
0.90
0.88
0.86
0.84
Opening Interest Rates
Base Rate
1-Mth
Short Term
3-Mth
12-Mth
Long Term
2-Yr
5-Yr
USD
0.875
1.00
1.17
1.78
1.57
1.93
EUR
GBP
0.00
-0.37
-0.33
-0.12
-0.13
0.19
0.25
0.25
0.32
0.68
0.56
0.79
Equity Indices
0.82
31-Oct
28-Nov
26-Dec
23-Jan
20-Feb
Sterling/US Dollar Exchange Rate
1.33
1.29
% Changes
Latest Close
on Day
End 2016 to Date
20981.33
+0.03
+6.17
S&P 500
2388.77
+0.06
+6.70
FTSE 100
7237.17
-0.71
+1.32
DJ Stoxx 50
3563.29
-0.43
+8.29
ISEQ
Nikkei
6878.02
-0.62
+5.54
19196.74
-0.29
+0.43
Dow Jones
1.25
1.21
1.17
31-Oct
28-Nov
All rates quoted are indicative market rates
FX Spot
Karl Cooke
Shane Gargan
Adrian Flanagan
Enda Homan
All Data Sourced from Thomson Reuters
26-Dec
23-Jan
20-Feb
20-Mar
17-Apr
See Next Page For More Rates & Charts
FX Options
Mark Tuite
Lenny Hogan
Equity Options James Murray
Reuters
Phone
AIBI
00353-1-7724018
Morning Comment John Fahey
[email protected]
Friday 28 April 2017
07:31 am
Opening Levels
Euro
Sterling
0.8423
1.0869
GBP/EUR
GBP/USD
1.1865
1.2901
USD/JPY
USD/CAD
111.22
1.3652
EUR/JPY
EUR/SEK
120.89
9.6078
GBP/CAD
GBP/NZD
1.7613
1.876
USD/CHF
USD/CNY
0.9948
6.8945
EUR/DKK
EUR/NOK
7.4381
9.3052
GBP/JPY
GBP/SEK
143.48
11.4022
USD/BRL
USD/RUB
3.1822
57.0186
EUR/CHF
EUR/AUD
1.0812
1.4536
GBP/DKK
GBP/NOK
8.8278
11.0446
USD/INR
64.21
EUR/HKD
8.4569
GBP/CHF
1.2834
AUD/USD
0.7477
EUR/CAD
1.484
GBP/AUD
1.7252
NZD/USD
0.6875
Debt Markets
Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate
Sterling/Euro Exchange Rate
1.25
Change bps
121
1.20
115
1.15
109
1.10
103
1.05
31-Oct
Dollar
EUR/GBP
EUR/USD
28-Nov
26-Dec
23-Jan
20-Feb
20-Mar
17-Apr
97
31-Oct
26-Dec
23-Jan
20-Feb
20-Mar
Daily High-Low-Close
2,400
7,500
2,350
7,300
2,250
7,100
2,200
2,150
25-Jan 04-Feb 14-Feb 24-Feb 06-Mar 16-Mar 26-Mar 05-Apr 15-Apr 25-Apr
%
1.60
Irish & German 10-Year Bond Yields
6,900
25-Jan 04-Feb 14-Feb 24-Feb 06-Mar 16-Mar 26-Mar 05-Apr 15-Apr 25-Apr
%
4 Weeks
End 16
10 Year Yield %
US
Germany
UK
2.30
0.30
1.06
-0
-5
-2
-12
-2
-6
-15
+10
-17
Ireland
Belgium
France
Italy
Spain
0.83
0.77
0.75
2.23
1.61
-8
-6
-7
-7
-7
-11
-7
-18
-7
-1
+8
+25
+8
+43
+24
Portugal
3.44
-10
-48
-28
Greece
6.24
+1
-52
-64
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------5 Year Swap %
US
1.91
-5
-17
-5
Eurozone
0.17
-7
-3
+9
UK
0.78
-1
-8
-10
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2 Year Swap %
US
1.53
-6
-10
+9
Eurozone
-0.17
-5
-4
-1
UK
0.55
-1
-8
-5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------10 Year Government Bond Spreads to Benchmark bps
Ireland
53
-4
-9
-2
7,700
2,300
Day
17-Apr
FTSE 100
S&P 500
Daily High-Low-Close
2,450
28-Nov
Close
Eurozone Swap Curve
Offer Rates : Money Rates to 1 Year
1.0
Belgium
France
Italy
Spain
46
45
193
131
-1
-3
-2
-3
-5
-16
-5
+1
+15
-3
+32
+14
Portugal
Greece
314
593
-6
+5
-46
-50
-39
-74
0.8
1.20
0.6
Commodities
% Change
0.4
0.80
0.0
0.40
-0.2
-0.4
0.00
24-Oct
Brent Oil
West Texas Oil
Close
51.44
48.96
Day
-0.73
-0.53
4 Weeks
-2.87
-2.66
End 16
-9.47
-8.91
CRB - All Commodity
CRB - Food
180.49
328.25
-0.67
+1.05
-2.71
-1.95
-6.24
-3.10
Gold $
1265.5
-0.31
+1.75
+9.83
0.2
-0.6
24-Nov
24-Dec
Irish 10 Year
24-Jan
24-Feb
24-Mar
German 10 Year
24-Apr
1 Mth 3Mth 6Mth 1Yr 2Yr 3yr
Latest Close
4Yr 5yr 6Yr 7yr 8Yr 9Yr 10Yr
4 Weeks Ago
This publication is for information purposes and is not an invitation to deal. The information is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Any expressions of opinions are
subject to change without notice. This publication is not to be reproduced in whole or in part without prior permission. In the Republic of Ireland it is distributed by Allied
Irish Banks, p.l.c. In the UK it is distributed by Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. and Allied Irish Bank (GB). In Northern Ireland it is distributed by First Trust Bank. In the United States of
America it is distributed by Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Allied Irish Bank (GB) and First Trust Bank are trade
marks used under licence by AIB Group (UK) p.l.c. (a wholly owned subsidiary of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c.), incorporated in Northern Ireland. Registered Office 92 Ann Street,
Belfast BT1 3HH. Registered Number NI018800. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential
Regulation Authority. In the United States of America, Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c., New York Branch, is a branch licensed by the New York State Department of Financial
Services. Deposits and other investment products are not FDIC insured, they are not guaranteed by any bank and they may lose value. Please note that telephone calls may
be recorded in line with market practice.
AIB Bankcentre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4
Tel: 353-1-6600311