Guide
Western Kenya forecasts
Decentralised climate information services for
decision making in Western Kenya
The Met Office, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and CARE Kenya have
been working in collaboration to develop and deliver demand-led and decentralised
services of KMD in the counties of Kakamega, Siaya, Kisumu and Trans Nzoia.
As part of the project, KMD's forecasting is being streamlined to improve existing
products and services and facilitate the delivery of new ones in response to demand
from users in the counties.
The following forecasts are samples of those developed as part of this project.
Further details can be found within the following briefing notes, which link through to
full proposals.
Briefing note - proposal for the development of forecasts for small-scale farmers in
Western Kenya
Briefing note - proposal for a daily weather forecast for Kenyan fishermen on Lake
Victoria
Briefing note - proposal for a daily weather forecast for Western Kenya
Supported by:
Fund Manager:
Delivery Partners:
November 2016
Kenya Meteorological Department
Daily weather forecast for Western Kenya
Issued at 16:00 on Friday 14th October 2016
Period of forecast:
From:15.00 Friday 14th October
To: 06.00 Sunday 16th October
Summary
Friday afternoon is expected to have
thunderstorms in Kakamega,
Kapsabet, Manga, Kisii, Kisumu and
Kericho with sunny intervals to clear
skies over all other counties.
Friday night is expected to have partly
cloudy to clear skies over all counties.
Saturday morning is expected to have
clear skies over all counties.
Saturday afternoon is expected to have
thunderstorms in Kapsabet and
Kericho with sunny intervals to clear
skies over all other counties.
Saturday night is expected to have
partly cloudy to clear skies over all
counties.
Friday and Saturday temperatures will
be normal for this time of the year.
Hazard warning
No hazard warnings in force.
t
Winds will be light across the region
and generally variable.
Friday
Afternoon
Friday
Night
Saturday
Morning
Saturday
Afternoon
Saturday
Night
Clear skies
18 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
30 max
Clear skies
18 min
Partly cloudy
18 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
29 max
Partly cloudy
18 min
Clear skies
24 max
Clear skies
12 min
Clear skies
Clear skies
24 max
Clear skies
12 min
Sunny intervals
29 max
Partly cloudy
20 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
29 max
Partly cloudy
20 min
Thunderstorms
20 max
Clear skies
16 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
29 max
Clear skies
17 min
Thunderstorms
25 max
Clear skies
13 min
Clear skies
Thunderstorms
23 max
Clear skies
13 min
Thunderstorms
24 max
Clear skies
13 min
Clear skies
Thunderstorms
23 max
Partly cloudy
13 min
Thunderstorms
27 max
Partly cloudy
17 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
28 max
Partly cloudy
17 min
Thunderstorms
30 max
Clear skies
21 min
Clear skies
Clear skies
30 max
Partly cloudy
21 min
Sunny intervals
27 max
Clear skies
14 min
Clear skies
Clear skies
27 max
Clear skies
14 min
Sunny intervals
29 max
Clear skies
18 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
29 max
Clear skies
18 min
Thunderstorms
26 max
Partly cloudy
16 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
27 max
Partly cloudy
16 min
Sunny intervals
32 max
Clear skies
20 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
31 max
Partly cloudy
21 min
Sunny intervals
29 max
Partly cloudy
19 min
Clear skies
Clear skies
28 max
Partly cloudy
19 min
Bungoma
Chance of rains
21 max
Busia
Chance of rains
29 max
Eldoret
Homa Bay
Kakamega
Kapsabet
Kericho
Kisii
Kisumu
Kitale
Mbale
Manga
Migori
Siaya
Key to Hazard warning colours
Green – No hazard warnings in force.
Amber - Potentially dangerous weather is expected. Be prepared.
Red – Dangerous and potentially life threatening weather conditions are expected.
Take immediate and appropriate action to ensure your safety.
For further information, please contact:
Forecaster on duty: Saumu Shaka.
Email: [email protected], [email protected]
Kenya Meteorological Department
Daily weather forecast for fishermen on Lake Victoria
Date of issue: 15th October 2016
Period covered by forecast:
th
09.00 Saturday 15 to
th
06.00 Sunday 16
Summary
Saturday 15th October 2016
Light Easterly winds in the Gulf of Winam
will give way to light Westerly breeze in
the afternoon. There is a high probability
of rain in the night. Visibility will be
moderate. Overnight winds in the Gulf
will be Variable.
In the open lake zone light Easterly winds
in the morning will give way to light
Westerly in the afternoon. Visibility will
be moderate. There is a chance of rain
near the Ugandan coast overnight
th
Sunday 16 October 2016
Light Easterly winds in the Gulf of Winam
will give way to light Westerly breeze in
the afternoon. There is a high probability
of rain in the night. Visibility will be
moderate. Overnight winds in the Gulf
will be variable.
In the open lake zone light Easterly winds
in the morning will become westerly in
the afternoon. Visibility will be moderate.
There is a chance of rain overnight.
Advisory to fishing craft
Green Saturday- no weather related hazard expected.
Green Sunday -
no weather related hazard expected
For further information, contact:
Vincent Sakwa – Principal marine
forecaster Lake Victoria
Mobile: +254 722 525902
Email: [email protected]
Zone 1: Gulf of Winam
th
Saturday 15
October 2016
Morning
Wind
speed and
direction
Rainfall/
Cloud cover
Rainfall
distribution
Visibility
No warnings in
force
E
Light wind
Afternoon
Sunny intervals
Good
W
Light wind
Night
Light rain
Good
No warnings in
force
No warnings in
force
Var
Light wind
Navigation
conditions
Light rain
Moderate
th
Sunday 16
October 2016
Morning
E
Light wind
Afternoon
Sunny intervals
Moderate
W
Light wind
Night
Light rain
Moderate
No warnings in
force
No warnings in
force
Var
Light wind
No warnings in
force
Light rain
Moderate
Zone 2. Open Lake
th
Saturday 15
October 2016
Morning
Wind
speed and
direction
Rainfall/
Cloud cover
Rainfall
distribution
Visibility
No warnings in force
E
Light wind
Afternoon
Night
Sunny intervals
Good
W
Light wind
No warnings in force
Light rain
Good
Var
Light wind
Navigation
conditions
No warnings in force
Light rain
Moderate
th
Sunday 16
October 2016
Morning
E
Light wind
Afternoon
Moderate
W
Light wind
Night
No warnings in force
Sunny intervals
No warnings in force
Light rain
Moderate
Var
Light wind
No warnings in force
Light rain
Moderate
Kenya Meteorological Department
Weekly Weather Forecast for Busia County
th
Date of issue: 10 October 2016 5pm
th
Period of forecast: Tuesday 11th October to Monday 17 October 2016
Zone 1, 2, 3 and 4
Table 1: Busia Central and Teso North Forecast for next 7 days (Tuesday 11th
to Monday 17th October 2016)
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Moderate
rain
Moderate rain
Light rain
Moderate rain
Moderate
rain
Moderate
rain
Moderate
rain
Partly Cloudy
partly cloudy
Light rain
partly
cloudy
partly
cloudy
partly cloudy
Light rain
28°C
27°C
28°C
28°C
28°C
27°C
28°C
17°C
18°C
16°C
16°C
17°C
17°C
17°C
Morning
Afternoon
Night
Rainfall
distribution
Maximum
temperature
Minimum
temperature
Hazards
Key to rainfall distribution symbols:
rain likely to fall in few places (less than 33%),
rain likely to
fall in many/several places (33% -67%),
rain likely to fall in most places (more than 67%),
Morning: 6am to Noon; Afternoon: Noon to 6 pm; Night: 6 pm to 6 am
Table 2: Bunyala and Samia Forecast for next 7 days (Tuesday 11th to Monday
17th October 2016)
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Moderate rain
Light rain
Light rain
Light rain
Light rain
Moderate rain
Light rain
Light rain
cloudy
Partly Cloudy
partly cloudy
partly cloudy
partly cloudy
partly cloudy
30°C
30°C
31°C
30°C
31°C
32°C
30°C
16°C
18°C
17°C
16°C
15°C
19°C
17°C
Morning
Afternoon
Night
Rainfall
distribution
Maximum
temperature
Minimum
temperature
Hazards
Key to rainfall distribution symbols:
rain likely to fall in few places (less than 33%),
rain likely to
fall in many/several places (33% -67%),
rain likely to fall in most places (more than 67%),
Morning: 6am to Noon; Afternoon: Noon to 6 pm; Night: 6 pm to 6 am
Commentary of County weather forecaster:
 A reduction in rainfall amount and area of distribution is likely over the forecast
period.
 Entire Busia County is likely to experience mainly sunny intervals in the mornings.
 Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely over few places (0-33%) over the
entire forecast period.
Advice to farmers from Ministry of Agriculture:

Rainfall categories
Range
Category
<5 mm
5 - 20mm
20 - 50mm
>50mm
Light
Moderate
Heavy
Very heavy
For further information, please contact:
Benjamin Bahati
County Director of Meteorology
Mobile: 0722 225 268
Email: [email protected]
Kenya Meteorological Department
Monthly weather forecast for Busia County for the month of
August 2016
Date of issue: 1/8/2016
Period of forecast: 1/8/2016 to 31/8/2016
Forecast for all of Busia County (zones 1, 2, 3 and 4)
The first half of the month is likely to start dry but become wetter towards the end.
Busia Central (zone 3) and Teso North (zone 4) are likely to receive more rainfall
than the rest of the county. The onset of the rains is likely to be stormy and violent.
High wind and lightning are likely.
Temperatures during the first half of August are expected to be warmer than usual for
the time of year with afternoon highs of 300 to 320 Centigrade and night time lows of
180 to 210.
The second half of August is likely to be wetter, with rainfall on several days in most
places especially after August 20th. There could also be some thunderstorms during
this period.
Temperatures during the second half of the month should be slightly cooler and close
to the long-term average for this time of year. Afternoon highs of 260 to 280
Centigrade and night time lows of 170 to 200 are likely.
Busia central is likely to receive more rainfall than the rest of the county over many
places. Busia Central (zone 3) and Teso north (zone 4) are likely to receive total
rainfall of 100mm to 180mm in August. Samia (zone 2) is likely to receive 40mm to
90mm, Budalangi (zone 1) is likely to receive the lowest rainfall – just 30mm to 60mm
during August.
Advice to farmers from Ministry of Agriculture:

Seriously consider harvesting maize before August 10, while the weather
remains dry.

Seriously consider starting to plough your land to a fine tilth before 10th August
while the weather remains dry.

Seriously consider dry planting green grams, finger millet, sorghum,
groundnuts and Simsim (Sesame) between 10th and 15th August.

Plant sweet potatoes later once the rains have started.

If you must plant maize, seriously consider going for early maturing varieties
which can survive dry spells.
For further information, please contact:
Benjamin Bahati
County Director of Meteorology
Mobile: 0722 225 268
Email: [email protected]
Kenya Meteorological Department
Seasonal forecast for the October, November, December
2016 rainy season in Homa Bay County
Suba/Mbita, Ndhiwa/Luanda and Homa Bay/Kendu Bay
(zones 1, 2 and 4)
Onset: October 1st - 7th
Cessation: December 18th - 24th
Probable volume of rainfall: 100-250 mm. Near normal rainfall (close to or slightly lower than the
average rainfall received during the October, November and December rainy season over the last 30
years)
Probable distribution of rainfall during the rainy season: Rainfall is likely to occur irregularly in
heavy showers. Most rain is likely to fall in November.
Probability of Rainfall
scenarios
Above
30%
25%
Normal
Below
45%
“Normal rainfall” is the average volume of rainfall that fell during the October, November, December
rainy season in this area of the county over the past 30 years
Commentary of County Meteorological Director:


Dry spells are likely to exceed 10 days
Rainfall distribution will be irregular
Rangwe-Oyugis (zone 3)
st
th
Onset: October 1 - 7
th
th
Cessation: December 18 - 24
Probable volume of rainfall: 250 – 350 mm. Near normal rainfall (close to or slightly lower than the
average rainfall received during the October, November and December rainy season over the last 30
years)
Probable distribution of rainfall during the rainy season: Rainfall is likely to occur irregularly in
heavy showers. Most rain is likely to fall in November.
Probability of Rainfall
scenarios
30%
Above
25%
Normal
Below
45%
“Normal rainfall” is the average volume of rainfall that fell during the October, November, December
rainy season in this area of the county over the past 30 years
Commentary of County Meteorological Director:

Expect dry spells that last more than 10 days
Date of issue: September 12th 2016
For further information, please contact:
County Director of Meteorology – Paul Oloo
Mobile : 0721 624 918
Email: [email protected]