BIODIVERSITY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE
Jeremy Carew-reid, SEA Team Leader
BIODIVERSITY
Ecoregions
Ecoregion
Central Indochina dry forests
Chin Hills-Arakan Yoma montane forests
Eastern Himalayan alpine shrub and
meadows
Eastern Himalayan broadleaf forests
Eastern Himalayan subalpine conifer
forests
Irrawaddy dry forests
Irrawaddy freshwater swamp forests
Irrawaddy moist deciduous forests
Kayah-Karen montane rain forests
Lower Gangetic Plains moist deciduous
forests
Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin rain forests
Myanmar Coast mangroves
Myanmar coastal rain forests
Northeast India-Myanmar pine forests
Northern Indochina subtropical forests
Northern Triangle subtropical forests
Northern Triangle temperate forests
Nujiang Langcang Gorge alpine conifer
and mixed forests
Tenasserim-South Thailand semievergreen rain forests
Total
Area (km2)
%
4.0
29,810.7
0.0
4.4
5,316.6
285.5
0.8
0.0
38.5
35,459.4
15,308.8
139,806.4
56,113.1
0.0
5.2
2.3
20.7
8.3
3.0
71,183.0
15,889.0
66,338.2
83.0
139,582.7
54,595.4
10,813.4
0.0
10.5
2.4
9.8
0.0
20.6
8.1
1.6
4,635.2
0.7
30,734.1
676,000.0
4.5
100.0
Protected Areas (PAs)
Key Biodiversity Areas
(KBAs)
PAs : 5.75% of land area
KBAs: 17% of land area
Conservation corridors
• The KBAs and corridors
provide a foundation for
conservation and
development
management
• They need to be
refined as further
information comes in –
especially for the
Thanlwin Basin
5
Footer
Intact forest losses and trends
 High losses of “intact”
forest with >80% cover –
11.4% between 2002 and
2014
 Significant increase in
degraded forest
Two of the most
threatened forest types
are:
 dry mixed deciduous
 mangrove forests
Dry mixed deciduous forest


Most DMDF already lost
Less than 2% of DMDF is legally protected
Irrawaddy dry
forests (5.2% of
total)
Drivers of change:
 Conversion of forests to agricultural land
 Logging
 Fire wood gathering
 Poaching and illegal wildlife trade
Footer
Based on current
trends and
drivers 25% to
63% of dry mixed
deciduous forests
in the Popa
Mountain Park
will be lost
between 2013
and 2043
Mangroves
Only 1% of mangroves formally protected
Source: Weber et al 2014
Trends in mangroves in Rakhine,
Ayeyarwady and Tanintharyi regions
Drivers of mangrove loss
Past driver of mangrove loss:
 Expansion of rice production
 Timber – construction and fuel
Future drivers of mangrove loss:
 Expansion of rice production
 Oil palm plantations
 Aquaculture
 Urban expansion
Trends in protected areas
Protected Area future trends
 Myanmar has designated 39 PAs covering 38,906 km2, 5·75% of land
area.
 Seven additional areas have been proposed, which would cover a
further 1.09%.
 Myanmar's 30-year National Forestry Master Plan set the national
target for PA coverage at 10% of total land area by 2030.
NBSAP strategy
for achieving that
goal
Protected Areas in Lower Mekong Countries
Cambodia
22% - 53 natural protected areas
classified into five categories
Lao PDR
18% - 14% national PAs plus some
4% locally established PAs = all
managed locally
Thailand
19% of national land area
(equivalent to 15% of Myanmar)
Vietnam
8% (112 PAs all but three managed
by Provinces)
Forest cover & HPP
development
All planned HHPs are located in
the remaining forest areas
(44% of total land area)
 33/84 HPPs located in intact forest
(>80% canopy)
 51/84 HPPs located in area of forest
cover > 50% canopy
Forest cover & HPPs
development
33/ 84 HPPs located in intact
forest (>80% Canopy)
51/ 84 HPPs located in area in
which forest cover > 50%
Ecozones in Myanmar
Ecoregions
AREA
%
Tenasserim-South Thailand semi29,957
4.5
evergreen rain forests
Eastern Himalayan alpine shrub
5,306
0.8
and meadows
Northern Triangle temperate
10,680
1.6
forests
Northern Triangle subtropical
53,784
8.1
forests
Chin Hills-Arakan Yoma montane
29,880
4.5
forests
Kayah-Karen montane rain forests
54,947
8.2
Irrawaddy dry forests
35,078
5.3
Myanmar coastal rain forests
65,595
9.8
Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin rain
70,513 10.6
forests
Nujiang Langcang Gorge alpine
4,461
0.7
conifer and mixed forests
Irrawaddy freshwater swamp
15,125
2.3
forests
Northern Indochina subtropical
136,610 20.5
forests
Irrawaddy moist deciduous forests 138,258 20.8
Myanmar Coast mangroves
15,899
2.4
Total
666,093 100.0
HPPs by Ecozone
Ecozones
Irrawaddy moist deciduous
forests
Kayah-Karen montane rain
forests
Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin
rain forests
Myanmar coastal rain forests
Northern Indochina
subtropical forests
Northern Triangle
subtropical forests
Nujiang Langcang Gorge
alpine conifer and mixed
forests
Tenasserim-South Thailand
semi-evergreen rain forests
Grand Total
No.
HPPs
%
11
13.1
15
17.9
4
4.8
9
10.7
31
36.9
12
14.3
1
1.2
1
1.2
84 100.0
Capacity of HPPs by Ecozone
Ecozones
Irrawaddy moist deciduous
forests
Kayah-Karen montane rain
forests
Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin
rain forests
Myanmar coastal rain forests
Northern Indochina
subtropical forests
Northern Triangle
subtropical forests
Nujiang Langcang Gorge
alpine conifer and mixed
forests
Tenasserim-South Thailand
semi-evergreen rain forests
Grand Total
Capacity
(MW)
%
2207
4.2
17773
34.1
2175
4.2
801
1.5
8115
15.6
20344
39.0
120
0.2
600
1.2
52135 100.0
HPPs and Key
Biodiversity Areas
No. of HPPs
HPPs & Constru Existi Plann Postpo
KBAs ction
ng
ed
ned
Total
Inside KBA
4
12
16
< 10 km
3
2
1
6
10 - 30 km
4
11
12
1
28
> 30 km
3
8
22
1
34
Total
7
26
48
3
84
Capacity (MW) of HPPs
HPPs & Constr- Exist- Planne PostKBAs uction ing d
poned Total
Inside KBA
240 12200
12440
< 10 km
254 3680 1200 5134
10 - 30 km
> 30 km
Total
1411 1588 3387
6000 12386
217 1099 16319
4540 22175
1628 3181 35586 11740 52135
HPPs and Protected
Areas
No. of HPPs
Constru Existi Plann Postpo
HPPs & PAs ction
ng
ed
ned
Total
1
1
2
Inside PAs
2
1
1
4
< 10 km
2
5
8
1 16
10 - 30 km
5 18 38
1 62
> 30 km
7 26 48
3 84
Total
Capacity (MW) of HPPs
Constr- Exist- Planne PostHPPs & PAs uction ing d
poned
Inside PAs
< 10 km
10 - 30 km
30
130
310
600
280
1200
Total
630
1610
948 3698
6000 10956
> 30 km
1318 2073 31008
4540 38939
Total
1628 3181 35586 11740 52135
CLIMATE CHANGE
Precipitation change in dry season
21
Precipitation change in wet season
22
Average Max Temperature change in dry season
23
Average Max Temperature change in dry season
24
CC and ecozones – Rainfall change in dry season
ECO_NAME
Irrawaddy freshwater swamp forests
AREA
Prec dry BL Prec dry
Eco code
(mm)
2050 (mm)
Prec dry
change (%)
15,124.6IM0116
107.1
132.2
23.2
94.5IM1404
149.0
179.3
21.8
2,241.3IM0205
87.1
102.3
18.3
54,946.8IM0119
126.3
147.8
17.3
3.5IM0132
142.4
163.2
16.4
Northern Indochina subtropical forests
136,691.1IM0137
168.1
190.7
13.6
Irrawaddy moist deciduous forests
129,802.4IM0117
103.4
115.6
12.5
10,680.4IM0402
308.7
345.5
11.9
5,262.1PA1003
176.4
196.0
11.0
53,718.4IM0140
294.7
320.9
8.6
58.7IM0163
280.0
300.8
8.4
4,489.3PA0516
210.7
228.1
8.1
Andaman Islands rain forests
Chin Hills-Arakan Yoma montane forests
2.7IM0101
29,775.3IM0109
241.8
173.0
260.8
182.3
8.0
6.7
Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin rain forests
70,552.8IM0131
160.2
169.3
6.0
Myanmar Coast mangroves
Irrawaddy dry forests
Kayah-Karen montane rain forests
Myanmar coastal rain forests
Northern Triangle temperate forests
Eastern Himalayan alpine shrub and meadows
Northern Triangle subtropical forests
Tenasserim-South Thailand semi-evergreen
rain forests
Nujiang Langcang Gorge alpine conifer and
mixed forests
CC and ecozones – Avg. Tmax change in dry season
ECO_NAME
Eastern Himalayan alpine shrub and meadows
Nujiang Langcang Gorge alpine conifer and
mixed forests
Tmax dry Tmax dry
Tmax dry
AREA
Eco code BL (oC)
2050 (oC)
change (oC)
5,262.1PA1003
9.5
11.7
2.2
4,489.3PA0516
14.1
16.1
2.0
136,691.1IM0137
25.7
27.7
2.0
Northern Triangle temperate forests
10,680.4IM0402
18.7
20.4
1.8
Kayah-Karen montane rain forests
54,946.8IM0119
30.2
31.9
1.7
2,241.3IM0205
31.9
33.6
1.7
53,718.4IM0140
22.4
24.1
1.7
129,802.4IM0117
30.6
32.2
1.6
58.7IM0163
30.5
32.0
1.5
Irrawaddy freshwater swamp forests
Myanmar coastal rain forests
Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin rain forests
15,124.6IM0116
3.5IM0132
70,552.8IM0131
32.7
31.9
27.2
34.1
33.4
28.7
1.5
1.5
1.5
Chin Hills-Arakan Yoma montane forests
Myanmar Coast mangroves
29,775.3IM0109
94.5IM1404
23.5
31.2
25.0
32.7
1.5
1.5
2.7IM0101
29.6
31.0
1.4
Northern Indochina subtropical forests
Irrawaddy dry forests
Northern Triangle subtropical forests
Irrawaddy moist deciduous forests
Tenasserim-South Thailand semi-evergreen
rain forests
Andaman Islands rain forests
Climate change –
precipitation in dry
season
Climate change avg tmax in dry
season
CC and HPPs - Average max temp in dry season
CC and HPPs – rainfall change in dry season
CLIMATE CHANGE SHIFTS
Regular climate shifts
1. Geographic shifts (space):


latitude and longitude
elevation
2. Seasonal shifts (time)


onset and end,
variability
Extreme events shifts
3. Extreme event shifts – intensity, regularity, location


Micro events – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands
Macro events – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall
The complex linkages between hydropower,
biodiversity and climate change
 Climate change affects all sectors
and will have a big impact on
biodiversity and hydropower
 In the GMS the relationship between
hydro and biodiversity has not
been a good one.
 And transformations induced by
climate change could aggravate that
tension.
 We need to understand the
relationship in order to manage it
affectively.
Thank you