Oakland Athletics vs. Josh Reddick
Team 30
Representing Oakland Athletics
Team 30 –Oakland Athletics
1
I.
Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision
This brief analyzes the contributions of Oakland Athletic’s (“Club”) right fielder, Josh
Reddick (“Reddick”), for an arbitration hearing governed by the Major League Baseball
Collective Bargaining Agreement. Criteria include: (1) Reddick’s contributions to the Club
during the past season, including overall performances, leadership, and public appeal; (2) the
length and consistency of Reddick’s career contributions; (3) Reddick’s past recorded
compensation figures; (4) comparative baseball salaries; (5) Reddick’s mental or physical defects
and (6) the recent performance record of the Club, including, but not limited to its standing and
attendance as an indication of public acceptance.1 Based on these criteria, the Oakland Athletic’s
respectfully request the arbitration panel find Mr. Reddick entitled to a salary below the $2.325
million midpoint and award him a contract of $2.1 million for the 2014 season.
II.
Quality of Player Contributions During Past Season
The Athletics had high hopes in 2013 for Josh Reddick, especially at the heels of his
breakout performance in 2012. Reddick was projected to be a top-of-the-order producer for the
offense and opened the season batting in the 3-hole. However, Reddick struggled out of the gate.
From opening day, April 1, 2013, until the middle of June, Reddick never raised his batting
average above .190, and he hit only 2 homeruns during that span.2 In fact, Reddick batted only
.218 with 4 homeruns in the first half of the 2013 season.3 Eventually, Reddick was successful in
raising his batting average above the Mendoza line, but he still finished the season with a triple
slash line of 226/.307/.379,4 well below the league average in each category, where hitters
1
MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, Article VI(E) §10(a)-(b).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=reddijo01&t=b&year=2013#batting_gamelogs::none
3
Id.
4
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml#batting_standard::none
2
Team 30 –Oakland Athletics
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throughout the MLB posted a composite .255/.319/.405.5 To give some perspective, Reddick’s
batting average ranked in the bottom 15% of all MLB hitters in 2013 with 300 or more plate
appearances.6 He fared no better compared to players at his position.
JOSH REDDICK (RANK AMONGST 30 MLB RIGHT FIELDERS WITH 300+ PA) 7
Season
BA
OBP
SLG
HR
2013
.226 (29th)
.307 (24th)
.379 (25th)
12 (19th)
Most troublesome of all, after swatting 32 homeruns in 2012, Reddick connected for only 12
long balls in 2013. In short, Reddick’s 2013 campaign was a struggle.
One troubling facet of that struggle was Reddick’s inability to perform within the
confines of the Oakland Coliseum. During 2013, Reddick had more hits, homeruns, RBI, and a
higher triple slash line on the road than he did at home, and he outperformed on the road in less
games and with fewer at-bats.
JOSH REDDICK: 2013 HOME VS. AWAY SPLITS8
2013
G
AB R H HR RBI BA
Home 59 200 27 40 2
22
.200
Away
55 185 27 47 10 34
.254
Total
114 385 54 87 12 56
.226
OBP
.296
.319
.307
SLG
.290
.476
.379
Interestingly, while the Coliseum is notorious for being a pitcher-friendly park, a similar
discrepancy is absent from Reddick’s statistics in his 2012 breakout season.9 In fact, that year,
Reddick knocked 18 homeruns at the Coliseum alone, more than he hit the entire 2013 season.10
Unfortunately, while Reddick displayed impressive defensive work with a .981 fielding
percentage, his .226 batting average and 12 homeruns provided little to rally around, detracting
from his public appeal and ability to lead in the clubhouse.
5
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2012.shtml#teams_standard_batting::none
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/count/237/qualified/false/minpa/300
7
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/rf/minpa/300
8
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=reddijo01&year=2013&t=b
9
Id.
10
Id.
6
Team 30 –Oakland Athletics
3
Reddick’s offensive woes may be attributable to lingering discomfort that he felt
throughout the season from a sprained right wrist, which landed him on the disabled list twice
during the 2013 season.11 He first injured the wrist after barreling into a wall in foul territory on
April 7, 2013 against the Astros, and was placed on the DL May 8, 2013.12 Upon returning to the
lineup, Reddick’s production picked up and he batted .277 in June.13 Still, he hit only 2HR each
in the months of June, July, and September/October.14 Moreover, while Reddick managed 5HR
in August,15 he returned to the DL on August 26, 2013 after re-injuring the wrist in an at-bat
against the Orioles.16 Considering Reddick’s thin frame (6’2”; 180 lb.) and the correlation
between the re-injury of his wrist and his mini power surge, there is no question that his
offensive production is inexorably tied to his ability to generate bat speed with quick hands and
strong wrists. Therefore, Reddick’s 2014 value will depend on his recovery from the
arthroscopic wrist surgery he underwent in late October 2013.17
III.
Length & Consistency of Career Contributions
Josh Reddick was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 17th round of the 2006 amateur draft.
He garnered big-league attention in 2008, batting .311 with 23HR, 91RBI, and 14SB with three
of the Red Sox’s minor league affiliates.18 His major league debut came with the Red Sox on
July 31, 2009, playing 27 games with the club that season.19 In 2010, Reddick returned to the
Red Sox for 29 games,20 splitting the season at AAA Pawtucket, where he posted a triple slash
11
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9904275/josh-reddick-oakland-surgery-right-wrist
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9255220/oakland-place-josh-reddick-15-day-dl-wrist
13
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=reddijo01&year=2013&t=b#month::none
14
Id.
15
Id.
16
http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/8/26/4662374/josh-reddick-injury-oakland-as-disabled-list
17
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9904275/josh-reddick-oakland-surgery-right-wrist
18
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=reddic001jos
19
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml
20
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml#batting_standard::none
12
Team 30 –Oakland Athletics
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line of .266/.301/.466 and showed some power with 18HR;21 however, he was not quite ready for
MLB action, hitting below .200 during his call-ups spanning from 2009-2010 over 125PA.22
Then, in 2011, Reddick played in 87 games, batting a career best .280.
JOSH REDDICK CAREER OFFENSIVE STATISTICS23
Year Tm
G
AB
R
H
2B HR RBI SB BA
2009 BOS
27
59
5 10
4
2
4
0
.169
2010 BOS
29
62
5 12
3
1
5
1
.194
2011 BOS
87 254 41 71
18
7
28
1
.280
2012 OAK 156 611 85 148
29
32
85
11
.242
2013 OAK 114 385 54 87
19
12
56
9
.226
5 Year Total 413 1371 190 328
73
54 178
22
.239
162 Gm Avg 162 538 75 129
29
21
70
9
.239
OBP
.210
.206
.327
.305
.307
.302
.302
SLG
.339
.323
.457
.463
.379
.427
.427
In 2012, the Athletic’s acquired Reddick from the Red Sox in exchange for closer
Andrew Bailey.24 He went on to have a career year, earning a Gold Glove and scoring 85 runs
with 148 hits, 32HR, and 85 RBI. Reddick also finished 16th in votes for AL MVP in 2012.25
Unfortunately, Reddick’s production dropped in nearly every category during his 2013 platform
season, except for OBP, where there was only marginal improvement. Therefore, while Reddick
has demonstrated outstanding defensive abilities and the potential to hit for moderate power,
averaging 21HR/162Gm season, questions remain about his durability over a full season. As
such, Reddick may never become the top of the order producer the Athletic’s hoped for when
dealing All Star closer Andrew Bailey, and questions regarding his surgically repaired wrist
deserve consideration with the respect to the inherent risk in his contract.
IV.
Comparative Baseball Salaries
21
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=reddic001jos#standard_batting::none
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml#batting_standard::none
23
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml#batting_standard::none
24
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111228&content_id=26240600&vkey=news_oak&c_id=oak&partner
Id=rss_oak
25
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml#batting_standard::none
22
Team 30 –Oakland Athletics
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A comparison to first year arbitration eligibility players with similar statistics provides the most
objective means for determining Reddick’s value for the 2014 season.
A. Garret Jones ($2.25 million in 2012; Age 31):
Comparing Josh Reddick to Garret Jones (“Jones”) shows that Reddick’s value does not
exceed the $2.325 million midpoint. Physically, Jones is a much larger player (6’4”; 230 lb.) than
Reddick (6’2”; 180 lb.), with more raw power potential. Like Reddick, Jones is a left-handed
batter, drafted late in the amateur draft; however, defensively, Jones plays both right field and
first base. Moreover, while Jones debuted in the majors at 25, three years later than Reddick,
their compensation history prior to arbitration eligibility is similar. From 2009-2011, Jones
received $400,000, $425,000 and $455,500 respectively.26 Similarly, in three years, Reddick
earned $400,000 (2009), $485,000 (2012) and $510,000 (2013).27
Another similarity is that neither player had a set role in the batting order during their
respective platform seasons. In 2011, Jones batted 1st (5AB), 2nd (91AB), 3rd (103AB), 4th
(19AB), 5th (80AB), 6th (82AB), 7th (32AB), 8th (1AB), and 9th(10AB).28 In 2013, Reddick batted
2nd (6AB), 3rd (54AB), 5th (14AB), 6th (88AB), 7th (166AB), 8th (53AB) and 9th (4AB).29
However, whereas the bulk of Jones’ at-bats came in the 3-hole, Reddick spent much of 2013 in
the bottom third of the lineup. Thus, while Jones arguably saw more opportunities for
production and better protection near the top of the Pirate’s order, he also provided increased
value to his club insofar as they relied on him for offensive production. A comparison of the
players’ platform seasons further illustrates Jones’ offensive superiority.
26
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml#contracts
28
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/28763/year/2011/garrett-jones
29
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/30195/josh-reddick
27
Team 30 –Oakland Athletics
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JOSH REDDICK (AGE 26) VS. GARRET JONES (AGE 30) – ELATFORM SEASON & CAREER
Player
Seasons G
AB
R
H
HR RBI SB BA
OBP
JOSH
2013
114 385
54 87
12
56
9
.226
.307
REDDICK30 ’09-‘13 413 1371
190 328 54
178 22 .239
.302
GARRET
2011
148 423
51 103 16
58
6
.243
.321
31
JONES
’07-‘11 419 1406
167 357 60
193 24 .254
.323
SLG
.379
.427
.433
.450
In addition to playing in 34 more games and garnering 38 more AB’s than Reddick, Jones
outperformed in nearly every offensive category, with the exception of runs and stolen bases,
where the differences were marginal. Jones’ lower run total is easily explicable by the fact that
the Pirates ranked 27/30 with 610 runs scored in 201132 whereas the 2013 Athletics ranked 4/30
with 767 total runs scored.33 Thus, the difference indicates more about overall team success than
either individual player’s performance. After all, Jones’ collected more total bases in his platform
season (183 to 146) and outperformed Reddick in every triple slash category.34 Comparing their
career performances, a similar trend emerges.
Heading into arbitration, Jones outperformed Reddick in career offense despite totaling
just 35 more at-bats. Over five seasons, Jones amassed 357 hits, 60HR, and 193RBI with a triple
slash line of .254/.323/.450 compared to Reddick’s 328 hits, 54HR, and 178RBI with a triple
slash of .239/.302/.427. In addition, Jones’ was consistent, batting above .240 from 2009-2011
with two seasons of 21 HR (2009, 2010) and one season of 16HR (2011).35 In contrast, Reddick
has only batted above .240 twice (2011, 2012) with just one season of 15+ homeruns (2012).36
Therefore, while Reddick has flashed potential, hitting 32HR in 2012, there is no guarantee he
30
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01-bat.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02-bat.shtml
32
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/year/2011
33
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/year/2013/seasontype/2
34
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02-bat.shtml
35
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02.shtml
36
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml
31
Team 30 –Oakland Athletics
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will replicate that performance, especially given the lingering concerns regarding his recovery
from arthroscopic surgery.
Still, Reddick’s comparative value is slightly bolstered by his defensive acumen. Reddick
earned a Gold Glove in 2012 after finishing second among right fielders with 14 assists, a
testament to his powerful arm.37 In addition, Reddick has made a name for himself, robbing
homeruns with acrobatic leaping catches and charging down fly-balls with tenacity, if not reckless
abandon. Still, Reddick’s hard-nose defense has also been, at least at times, detrimental, as
exemplified by the wrist injury he incurred against the Astros in 2013.
DEFENSIVE COMPARISON (JONES OF STATS, EXCLUDING 1B)
Player
Seasons Inn
Ch PO A
E
FLD%
JOSH
2013
966.1 258 244 9
5
.981
REDDICK38 ’09-‘13 3119.1 813 766 30
17
.979
GARRET
2011
659
158 155 2
1
.994
39
JONES
’07-‘11 1561.3 378 363 10
5
.981
Further while Reddick has shown more defensive flare than Jones, he has also committed
more errors and his platform and career fielding percentages (FLD%) are lower than Jones’
fielding percentage in the outfield. Further, Jones, who played 87 games in right field and 31
games at first base in 2011, offers additional value through his positional flexibility.40 Therefore,
Reddick’s defensive value does not greatly exceed that of Jones. Thus, while Reddick excels
defensively and finished 16th in MVP during his 2012 campaign, Jones’ pre-arbitration resume is
at least as impressive as Reddick’s. After all, Jones finished 7th for Rookie of the Year in 2009,41
and posted strong offensive numbers from 2009-2011, demonstrating a level of consistency that
37
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/year/2012/position/rf/sort/assists
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml
39
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02-bat.shtml
40
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=jonesga02&t=b&year=2011#rowsum_desc
41
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02-bat.shtml
38
Team 30 –Oakland Athletics
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Reddick has yet to match. This valuation necessarily places Reddick below the $2.325 million
midpoint.
B. Seth Smith ($2.42 million in 2012; Age 29):
Comparing Josh Reddick to Seth Smith (“Smith”) demonstrates that Reddick’s value does
not exceed the $2.325 million midpoint. After his platform season in 2011, 29-year-old Seth
Smith earned an arbitration contract of $2.415 million in 2012.42 That is, Smith’s 2012 salary
amounted to $90,000 more than the $2.325 million midpoint in the present arbitration. Like
Reddick, Smith plays outfield and bats left-handed. Physically, Smith is larger, as he measures
one inch taller and weighs 30 lbs. more than Reddick.43 Moreover, Smith was a higher draft pick,
going to the Rockies in the 2nd round of the 2004 amateur draft, as opposed Reddick’s 16th round
selection by the Red Sox. That is, when drafted, Smith projected to be the better player.
JOSH REDDICK (AGE 26) VS. SETH SMITH (AGE 28)– PLATFORM SEASONS
Player
Season G
AB
R
H
HR RBI SB BA
REDDICK 2013
114 385 54
87
12
56
9
.226
44
SMITH
2011
147 476 67
135 15
59
10 .284
CAREER STATISTICS LEADING INTO FIRST YEAR ARBITRATION
REDDICK ’09-‘13 413 1371 190 328 54
178 22 .239
SMITH
‘07-‘11 487 1285 200 354 51
181 17 .275
OBP SLG
.307 .379
.347 .483
.302
.348
.427
.485
Examining the players’ platform seasons, Smith outperformed Reddick in every major
offensive category. While the HR, RBI, and SB discrepancies are slight, especially considering
the fact that Reddick had fewer at-bats and Smith played in hitter-friendly confines of Coors
Field, Smith’s triple slash line was substantially higher in each category. Further, Smith amassed
230 total bases to Reddick’s 146.45 A similar narrative emerges from a comparing their career
numbers, where Smith’s triple slash line is higher across the board. Moreover, the difference in
42
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithse01.shtml#contracts
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithse01.shtml
44
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithse01.shtml
43
45
Team 30 –Oakland Athletics
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the players’ HR/AB ratio is slight, as Reddick has averaged 1HR/25.38AB to Smith’s
1HR/25.19AB. In addition to outperforming Reddick offensively throughout his career and in his
platform season, Smith has shown consistency in 3.119 years of service time, playing almost
three seasons of over 100 games (133G in 2009, 133G in 2010, and 147G in 2011). In contrast,
Reddick enters arbitration with 3.050 years of service time, but only two seasons of 100 or more
games played (2012, 2013).
Much like the comparison to Jones, Reddick’s defensive abilities partially offset Smith’s
offensive superiority. For instance, Reddick’s 30 career assists are more than double Smith’s
career mark of 14; however, Smith boats a .983 career FLD%, higher than that of both Jones and
Reddick.46 Therefore, whereas the Jones comparison yielded roughly equivalent player values,
Smith’s value exceeds Reddick’s by more than $90,000. After all, Smith’s career BA is .036
higher than Reddick’s compared to the .015 discrepancy between Jones and Reddick, and Smith
has provided the best FLD% of all three players. This remains true regardless of the fact that
Reddick is an every-day right fielder, whereas Smith played several outfield positions in 2011
(104G in RF; 25G in LF; 17G as PH). In sum, based on Reddick’s offensive inconsistency and
inability to hit for average compared to Smith, his value should be set at least $90,000 below
Smith’s adjusted value of $2.42 million.
V.
Mental & Physical Defects
As mentioned, Reddick had arthroscopic surgery on his right wrist during the off-
season.47 Given Reddick’s relatively thin frame (6’2, 180lb.), he relies on the quickness of his
hands and wrists to generate bat-speed and power. In particular, a left-handed hitter’s right wrist
is critical for bringing the bat “through the zone.” Reddick’s 2013 offensive performance
46
47
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithse01-field.shtml
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9904275/josh-reddick-oakland-surgery-right-wrist
Team 30 –Oakland Athletics
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illustrates the debilitating effects of playing with such an injury. Therefore, while he “should be
ready for the start of spring training,”48 there is cause for concern since “each patient’s
arthroscopic surgery is unique to that person” and “recovery time will reflect that
individuality.”49 Additionally, given Reddick’s 2013 struggles in Oakland, questions arise
regarding focus. Reddick, who started 2013 in a “beard-off” with WWE wrestler Daniel Bryan,
may have done himself and the team a disservice by soliciting individualized attention.50
VI.
Past Compensation
Josh Reddick earned closed to the league minimum in every season leading into his first-
year of arbitration eligibility. He earned $510,000 during 2013.
VII.
Recent Performance Record of the Club
In spite of Reddick’s 2013 campaign, the Athletics went on to win the West with a record
of 96-66;51 however, despite the succesful season, the team finished just 23/30 in overall
attendance,52 as the team continues to struggle to find a new home stadium and fan base.
VIII. Conclusion
Josh Reddick provides a valuable skill set to the Athletic’s organization as a hard-nosed
defensive right fielder with excellent glove work and a plus arm; however, despite demonstrating
moderate power potential as a left-handed batter, Reddick’s low career batting average proves
that he can be an offensive liability. Moreover, even if Reddick fully recovers from wrist
surgery, a slow start to the 2014 season is foreseeable as he works to regain his timing at the
plate. Given these risks, Reddick’s value does not exceed the $2.325 million midpoint.
48
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9904275/josh-reddick-oakland-surgery-right-wrist
http://orthoinfo.aaos.org/topic.cfm?topic=a00109
50
http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/4/22/4252452/josh-reddick-gets-a-trim-beard-off-with-wwes-daniel-bryan-injeopardy
51
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/#20130930
52
http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance/_/sort/homePct
49
Team 30 –Oakland Athletics
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