MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Topic of the week
Alexander Nazarov
+7 (495) 980 43 81
[email protected]
Chinese contracts – a long-awaited breakthrough
In this issue of Oil & Gas Weekly, we summarize the contracts signed by Russian and
Chinese companies during the recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China.
Ivan Khromushin
+7 (495) 980 4389
[email protected]
As expected, the major contract between Gazprom and CNPC on natural gas supplies
was signed. The 30-year contract is for the sale of up to 38 bcm of gas through the
Eastern Route. The total cost of the contract may exceed $400 bln and Gazprom may
need capex of about $65 bln. According to Gazprom, the price is well above
$350/mcm (~$360-380/mcm, we estimate). Although substantial uncertainties linger
regarding the parameters of the contract, including the gas price, on the basis of
already released details we view it as value-accretive for Gazprom while emphasizing
critical role of cost control, maximal use of synergies with existing assets, and capital
discipline during its implementation. Gazprom has preliminarily agreed to attract a $25
bln advance payment from the Chinese party as part of the contract.
Alexey Dorokhov
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 5 4504)
[email protected]
Ekaterina Zinovyeva
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 5 4442)
[email protected]
Contents:
Trading ideas summary ................. 2
NOVATEK signed a contract to supply 3 mln tonnes of LNG p.a. to CNPC from Yamal
LNG. Yamal LNG also signed a Memorandum on project financing with Chinese
Development Bank Corporation, Gazprombank and Vnesheconombank.
Topic of the week .......................... 3
SIBUR and Sinopec entered into a strategic cooperation agreement. The arrangements
provide for both parties to deepen strategic cooperation. SIBUR also signed a contract
with Sinopec to establish a JV (SIBUR 25.1%, Sinopec 74.9%) for the construction of a
50 ktpa butadiene nitrile rubber (NBR) plant located 50 km south of Shanghai.
Equity valuation............................. 16
Week ahead
C.A.T. Oil is due to report 1Q14 IFRS results on May 27, Lukoil is due to report 1Q14
results on May 28. Russia-Ukraine-EU gas meeting is due on May 26.
Ideas for this week
Equity. As we expected, Gazprom has outperformed the market. We advise to take profits
in the stock and maintain positions in defensive dividend stories.
The week in review ....................... 8
International markets..................... 13
Fixed Income valuation ................. 18
Dividend yields vs. senior bonds ... 27
Calendar of events ........................ 28
Companies mentioned
Gazprom
Surgutneftegas
NOVATEK
Gazprom Neft
SIBUR
Eurasia Drilling
Rosneft
Debt. Oil and gas issues were well-bid this week against the backdrop of improved market
sentiment. Although many of the undervalued names have already been picked up, some
buying opportunities remain (see trade ideas section).
Charts of the week
China gas consumption, bcm
O&G G-spread deviations from the LTM average
bcm
100
278
250
60
200
150
40
20
122
0
100
-20
LUKOIL 23
GAZPROM 22 4.95
SIBNEFT 23
GAZPROM 22 6.51
GAZPROM 20
LUKOIL 22
GAZPROM 21
SIBNEFT 22
LUKOIL 20
ROSNEFT 22
NOVATEK 22
EDC 20
TNK 20
NOVATEK 21
50
0
2011
2020E
OTHERS
GAZPROM
Source: IEA, GPB estimates
Research Department
$ BPS
80
14%
GAZPROM 19
LUKOIL 19
GAZPROM 18
TRANSNEFT 18
LUKOIL 17
TNK 18
TNK 17
ROSNEFT 17
LUKOIL 18
SIBUR 18
300
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
1
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
WEEKLY TRADING IDEAS SUMMARY
Equity
COMPANY
Bashneft prefs
TICKER
BANEP RX
CURRENT PRICE
IDEA
1,551
We reiterate our positive view on Bashneft common and especially
preferred shares. Approval of the new formal dividend policy (vs. the
current policy of paying no less than 10% of IFRS net income) next week
may increase the predictability of the minimum level of Bashneft
dividends. The company’s Investor Day on June 4 may bring positive
news for the outlook on preferred shares and chances of their eventual
conversion to commons. We prefer Bashneft prefs to commons. As with
Russian oil and gas prefs, Bashneft preferred shares are equity-like
securities. Dividends on Bashneft prefs are set at the level of common
dividends.
Preferred shares of Russian oils
Keep positions in prefs on dividend expectations.
Tatneft prefs
TATNP RX
RUB 125.5
Since our first recommendation on November 8, the performance is
+6.5% vs. the 4.0% decline in the MICEX Index.
Keep positions in prefs on dividend expectations; SNGSP is defensive
against ruble depreciation.
SurgutNG prefs
SNGSP RX
RUB 26.3
Since our first recommendation on November 8, the performance is
+11.2% vs. the 4.0% decline in the MICEX Index.
Fixed Income
IDEA
CURRENT LEVEL
TARGET LEVEL
54 bps
20 bps
SIBUR 18 (YTM 5.84%, Z-spread 469 bps) – GAZPRU 18 (YTM 4.26%, Z-spread 306 bps)
158 bps
90 bps
SIBUR 18 (YTM 5.84%, Z-spread 469 bps) – CHMFRU 18 (YTM 5.00%, Z-spread 380 bps)
84 bps
0 bps
107 bps
80 bps
SIBNEF 22 (YTM 5.77%, Z-spread 343 bps) – GAZPRU 22 4.95 (YTM 5.31%, Z-spread 301 bps)
46 bps
20 bps
SIBNEF 23 (YTM 6.00%, Z-spread 355 bps) – LUKOIL 23 (YTM 5.33%, Z-spread 290 bps)
67 bps
40 bps
TMENRU 20 (YTM 5.17%, Z-spread 342 bps) – GAZPRU 20 (YTM 4.63%, Z-spread 283 bps)
The TMENRU 20 is still lagging the general market movement, while its premium to the GAZPRU curve
remains elevated.
SIBUR bonds were well-bid this past week, with their premiums over GAZPRU and CHMFRU papers
contracting by 60-80 bps, but at current levels we see additional narrowing potential of 60-80 bps.
EDCLLI 20 (YTM 6.17%, Z-spread 434 bps) – LUKOIL 20 (YTM 5.10%, Z-spread 315 bps)
The EDCLLI 20’s premiums over its core corporate customer (LUKOIL 20) are moving toward recently seen
local lows of 80 bps, with current spread contraction potential estimated at 25 bps.
The SIBNEF 22 and SIBNEF 23, which are among the most undervalued IG names in the Russian oil
and gas universe, saw strong interest this week. As a result, the SIBNEF 23 – LUKOIL 23 spread
contracted 20 bps. Although most of the premium seems to have been taken, we believe that potential
for a further narrowing of the spread remains given the supportive market environment and the expected
absence of primary supply from the company this year.
Research Department
2
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
TOPIC OF THE WEEK
Chinese contracts – a long-awaited breakthrough
Gazprom
Gazprom and CNPC signed a, 30-year $400 bln contract to deliver gas to China. Only the
major details were yet announced by the parties. We estimate the contract’s implied price
within the $360-380/mcm range, which is comparable to the level of European gas
deliveries, and according to Russian business daily Vedomosti there may be upside risk.
The Eastern Gas Program is becoming a priority project and gas deliveries to China may
start in 4-6 years.
Long-awaited contract signed
The contract represents a breakthrough in the Russia-China relationship and is the
largest-ever deal between the two countries. It implies annual deliveries of 38 bcm of
gas over 30 years, with take-or-pay clauses, and has to include a volume build-up
period during the initial years.
A source of production growth and diversification for Gazprom
The signed contract is an important source of production growth and market
diversification for Gazprom. During the first stage, annual gas deliveries to China will
increase the company’s production by 8% from the current level and full development of
Chayandinskoye and Kovyktinskoe fields (which are participating in the project) by 12%.
The gas deliveries to China will increase the amount of non-CIS gas exports by almost
25% while providing export market diversification and access to the Chinese gas market
– one of the most promising gas markets in the world.
Gas exports to China bring to life the full-scale development of East Siberian gas
resources. The expected combined peak output of two of Gazprom’s giant fields in East
Siberia – Chayandinskoye and later Kovyktinskoye – reaches 60 bcm per year, leaving
large-scale potential for a further increase of exports to China and the Asia-Pacific
market as well as gasification of the Russian Far East.
In addition, according to Gazprom management’s announcements, after the
conclusion of the export contract with CNPC the company will start negotiations on a
further increase in gas deliveries to China, including via the Western route – the Altay
pipeline. To recap, earlier Gazprom planned to sell 30 bcm per year to China from its
core West Siberian gas fields.
China energy consumption vs global patterns
5
bln toe
China gas imports and outlook
5.0
700
600
600
4
3
bcm
2.7
2.7
2.2
0.7
1
0.8
0.6
445
400
109
300
1.7
2
500
0.7
200
0.4
100
16
45
0
OIL
GAS
COAL
AFRICA
S. AMERICA
MIDDLE
EAST
EU
N.AMERICA
ASIA
PACIFIC
INDIA
RUSSIA
US
CHINA
0
1995
OTHER
Source: company data, Gazprombank estimates
Research Department
2005
CONVENTIONAL
SHALE GAS
NET PIPELINE IMPORT
220
39
39
27
116
2015E
129
98
70
39
61
104
166
182
2025E
2035E
86
OTHER UNCONVENTIONAL
NET LNG IMPORT
Source: company data, Gazprombank estimates
3
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(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Contract price close to expectations, netbacks may be higher vs. exports to
Europe
According to Gazprom, the contract price substantially exceeds $350/mcm, though the
exact price was not disclosed. The gas price formula is linked to the oil products basket.
Based on available information, we estimate that the contract’s price is most likely in the
$360-380/mcm range and probably close to the higher end (depending on the exact
volume of the contract, the parameters of the build-up period and pricing point, and
other important details, which were not disclosed), compared with the average price of
Gazprom sales in Europe of $377.5/mcm.
We note that there may be upside risk to our estimated price range of the contract.
According to Vedomosti, the volumes build-up period may be longer, so the implied
price level could reach $387/mcm.
Furthermore, one of the newspaper’s sources stated that the $400 bln estimate of the
total size of contract was made on the basis of minimum take-or-pay volumes, which
were not disclosed, but typically amount to 80-85% of the total volume of the contract.
This would bring the price to as high as $485/mcm, but we think that such a level is
highly unlikely and there would be some guidance or a leak of information that the
perceived price level of the contract was way too low. Further details will be essential to
fine-tune our estimates.
At our estimated price range, the netbacks on gas sales to China will be higher vs.
exports to Europe. The netback premium to the European market seems reasonable
taking into the account the large upfront capex to be invested by Gazprom. The gas
price under the contract seems close to market expectations, with the most likely pricing
point being the Chinese border and including the export duty.
Chinese partners to provide $25 bln prepayment
Alexander Medvedev, the head of Gazprom Export, announced that Gazprom has
preliminarily agreed to attract a $25 bln advance payment from the Chinese party as
part of the contract to deliver gas to China. According to Medvedev, the advance
payment of $25 bln has been agreed in principle and details are being discussed.
Effect on the company: The provision of an advance payment should allow Gazprom to
cover a significant portion of the costs to develop the Chayandinskoye field and
construct the Power of Siberia (Sila Sibiri) pipeline in the period prior to the launch of the
project.
In our view, the advance payment will most likely be provided in parts and be overall
synchronized with the investment schedule. Its provision will also allow Gazprom to
reduce the volumes of diverted own financial resources for implementation of the project
to deliver gas to China and may accelerate the overall project’s implementation.
Moreover, the provision of an advance payment partially reduces the risks to growth in
Gazprom dividends.
Depending on the terms of the contract and agreement on the advance payment, its
provision could potentially lead to a certain adjustment of the gas price to account for
the level of interest payments, although in this case it would unlikely be significant.
Capex volumes may exceed $65 bln. Focus on cost control is essential
The project includes development of the Chayandinskoye and later Kovyktinskoye gas
fields, as well as construction of the Power of Siberia pipeline and gas refining and
helium plants. There may be a probability of some participation by independent gas
producers in the project during some of its stages. We expect Gazprom’s capex to
increase from $44 bln in 2013 to $47-50 bln per year in 2015-20.
Given the extraordinary scale of the project and the amount of required capital
investments (over $65 bln in Russia until 2030, we estimate), the level of cost control
Research Department
4
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
and capital discipline becomes the pivotal issue that will ultimately define the profitability
of the project. A special focus must be made on full exploitation of possible synergies
with the existing infrastructure in the region, including elements of Transneft’s ESPO
pipeline infrastructure, roads and power lines.
Possible leverage increase, but no critical pressure for credit ratings at the
current stage
The intensified capex program could put pressure on corporate discretionary cash flows
and require borrowings. The provision of an advance payment, however, should provide
Gazprom with additional financial flexibility and allow it to cover a solid portion of the
project’s development costs in the period prior to its launch without significantly diverting
own financial resources. Concerning the project’s prepayments, we do not rule out that
they could be viewed by rating agencies as part of Gazprom’s indebtedness via analogy
with Rosneft. To remind, the agencies include Rosneft’s long-term prepayments in
corporate debt, simultaneously expanding the financial thresholds for given ratings.
At the same time, at the current stage we do not see significant threats to Gazprom’s
ratings, as its historically healthy credit metrics provide a significant degree of financial
flexibility. According to our estimates, as of end 2013 Gazprom could attract $48 bln in
addition to its $55 bln of debt on the balance sheet without touching the limits of its
financial ratios for current ratings (RCF/net debt above 30% for Moody’s, net debt/FFO
below 2.5х for Fitch).
Additional tax breaks provided to support the project
To additionally support the project, Russia offered to cancel the gas MET for gas fields
participating in the project (vs. the earlier provided 90% discount to the MET rate), while
the Chinese party agreed to reduce the taxation of gas imported from Russia.
Depending on the interim results of the project’s implementation, a reduction of the
export duty (30% of the gas price) could potentially be considered, but at this stage such
a measure seems unlikely due to the volume of already provided tax incentives and
budget constraints.
Volume of gas purchases in Central Asia may decline moderately
Over the past several years, Gazprom has acquired over 30 bcm of gas from Central
Asian countries, including Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which it sells
on European and CIS markets. Due to high purchasing prices, the margins on sales of
Central Asian gas for Gazprom remain low. The key alternative market for Central
Asian gas is China.
Following the conclusion of the gas export contract with CNPC, Gazprom may reduce
the volume of purchases from Central Asia and substitute these volumes with its own
production, thereby substantially increasing margins. Still, as Gazprom is interested in
further increasing gas exports to China, a large-scale reduction of gas purchases from
Central Asia seems quite unlikely any time in the foreseeable future.
OVERWEIGHT recommendation confirmed
We view the signed contract as an important and positive development for Gazprom.
We confirm our OVERWEIGHT recommendation on the company’s shares and will
consider adjusting our target price as and when substantial new information on the
contract becomes available.
Research Department
5
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Gazprom’s key assets
GAS PIPELINES
GAS FIELDS
LNG
GAS PIPELINES
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
BOVANENKOVO
YNAO, YAMAL
Bovanenkovo — Ukhta
SHTOKMAN
YAMBURGSKOYE
Ukhta
URENGOISKOYE
Yamal — Europe
Novy Urengoy
ZAPOLYARNOE
RUSSIA
Saint-Petersburg
TO EUROPE
CHAYANDINSKOYE
Gryazovets
Torzhok
Smolensk
Moscow
Urengoi — Pomary — Uzhgorod
Izhevsk
KOVIKTINSKOYE
SAKHALIN II
TO EUROPE
Elets
ASTRAKHANSKOYE
Balagansk
Blagoveshchensk
KIRINSKY
BLOCK
TO EUROPE
Power of Siberia
South Stream
TO CHINA
KAMCHATKA
Khabarovsk
SAKHALIN III
Krasnodar
TO EUROPE
TO TURKEY
VLADIVOSTOK-LNG
PROJECT
Blue Stream
Source: company data, Gazprombank
NOVATEK
NOVATEK signed two agreements in China, the first being a contract with CNPC to
supply LNG. The contract provides for the supply of 3 mln tonnes of LNG p.a. for a
period of 20 years, which equals about 18% of planned Yamal LNG capacity. The LNG
price is indexed to the Japanese Crude Cocktail. According to NOVATEK CFO Mark
Gyetvay, Yamal LNG has secured 97% of LNG production, totaling 16.5 mln tonnes.
Secondly, China Development Bank Corporation, Vnesheconombank, Gazprombank
and Yamal LNG signed a Memorandum on project financing for the Yamal LNG project.
According to the Memorandum, the parties will make efforts to close the project
financing in 4Q14 on the best possible terms for the project.
China Development Bank Corporation will be the general coordinator for the Chinese
financial institutions and will do its utmost to secure financing from the Chinese banks
for a tenor of up to 15 years. VEB and Gazprombank confirmed their intent to participate
in the financing of the project.
SIBUR
Sinopec and SIBUR entered into a strategic cooperation agreement during the state visit
of President Putin to China. The arrangements provide for both parties to deepen
strategic cooperation.
As part of the cooperation, the parties will discuss potential expansion of trading
operations and look into collaboration opportunities in gas processing and
petrochemicals projects.
SIBUR also signed a contract with Sinopec to establish a JV (SIBUR 25.1%, Sinopec
74.9%) for the construction of a 50 ktpa butadiene nitrile rubber (NBR) plant located 50
km south of Shanghai.
The parties also signed a technology license agreement for the use of SIBUR's NBR
production technology at the new facility. SIBUR’s specialists will take part in rolling out
the new facility’s production and commercial operations.
Research Department
6
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
As regards the possible effect on the company, it is not very large at this point.
First, we still think that the potential Belogorsky gas processing complex is a significantly
larger and more important project for SIBUR. Potential Sinopec involvement in this
project has not been discussed publicly, but we note the possibility of this involvement.
To recap, this major project may follow the ZapSib-2 gas and petrochemical project, but
even the Zap-Sib02 project has not been approved yet, although the decision may be
made by the end of 2014. That said, we believe that concrete projects within the
framework of this strategic cooperation with Sinopec may be quite long-term, we do not
expect any short-term financial impact.
In terms of the rubber plant in China, the total cost of this plant may be $150-200 mln,
meaning an assumed cost for SIBUR of not more than $50 mln, not more than 3% of
SIBUR’s 2013 capex. Moreover, SIBUR’s total rubber capacity is close to 600 ktpa,
including 42.5 ktpa from the NBR and Krasnoyarsk plant, so the planned plant is not a
major project for SIBUR.
All in all, although sentiment is positive, we consider this deal as neutral for SIBUR’s
debt position. We think that the decision on the ZapSib-2 project is more important.
Research Department
7
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
WEEK IN REVIEW
Oil news
Oil traded sharply higher on unrest in Libya, which could disrupt crude supplies from the
country, as well as a big drawdown in US Cushing stocks. July Brent futures surged
0.6% to $110.4, while WTI climbed 2.2% to $103.8/bbl.
Energy Ministry sends proposals to government on implementation of
tax maneuver in the oil sector
The Energy Ministry has submitted to the government proposals on implementation of
the tax maneuver in the oil sector, according to media reports. The ministry’s proposals
have not yet been discussed with the Finance Ministry or the Transportation Ministry.
The package of measures contains proposals to increase the base MET rate by 27% to
RUB 625/tonne from 2015 and lower the oil export duty rate to 51% in 2015. Gasoline
duties are proposed to be reduced to 85% of the duty on oil from 2016, to 75% from
2017 and to the rate on diesel fuel from 2018. Duties on fuel oil are proposed to be
increased to 80% of the duty on oil from 2015, to 90% from 2016 and to 100% from
2017. In order to ease the impact on the tax maneuver on Russian consumers, it is also
proposed to reduce excise rates on gasoline and diesel fuel, though the size of the
possible decrease in rates was not mentioned.
Until 2018, the Energy Ministry also proposed to conduct an experiment at certain fields
– replace the MET with a tax on the financial result, depending on the profitability of
extraction (EPT). Earlier, the agency had mentioned pilot projects as being new fields of
Gazprom Neft, Lukoil and Surgutneftegas.
Starting from 2018, a further redistribution of taxes is possible – a reduction of the
Russian export duty to the level of Kazakhstan (currently one-fifth the level of Russia), a
further increase of the MET and the zero-rating of excises. The partial introduction of
EPT in place of a higher MET is also possible.
According to Vedomosti, the Finance Ministry is preparing its own version of a largescale tax maneuver that entails a reduction of export duties to the level of Kazakhstan
and a significant increase of the MET.
Equity implications: The acceleration of the tax maneuver, as we understand, is
connected with the process of formation of the Eurasian Economic Union and the need
to unify export duties within its framework, as well as with a reduction of the volume of
support for oil refining in Russia. The dialog between the agencies regarding the
parameters of the tax maneuver is ongoing, and the proposed figures will likely be
adjusted during further discussions. Even in the event of continued stable oil prices, the
most likely outcome is a certain increase in the overall volume of tax receipts from the oil
sector.
Implementation of the tax maneuver – implying a significant reduction of export duties
and an increase of the MET via equalization of the terms of export of oil and oil products
– would significantly reduce the profitability of refining in Russia and raise the profitability
of oil exports, with the ultimate impact depending on the ratio of the MET increase and
the reduction of export duties, as well as the possible decrease of excises. The
importance of existing MET breaks would also grow. A reduction of export duties, a
smoother increase in fuel oil duties and a possible reduction of excise taxes would help
ease the effect on oil products. Introduction of the EPT would be positive for upstream,
but it will likely be broadly introduced by 2018 and the reduction of tax revenues will likely
be balanced by other taxes.
The beneficiaries from the tax maneuver would include companies with the greatest
share of exports relative to production – Surgutneftegas and partially Tatneft, while the
losers may be companies with the highest share of refining – Bashneft and to a lesser
degree Gazprom Neft.
Research Department
8
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
The effect on the largest companies in the sector – Rosneft and Lukoil – would be
overall closer to neutral.
News of the possible acceleration of the tax maneuver has been reported several times
over the past two months and the likelihood of its implementation is already partially
priced in by the market. The further market reaction may depend on further discussion by
the regulators and the appearance of consensus parameters.
KEY CORPORATE NEWS
Surgutneftegas announces dividends for 2013: 9% pref yield, payout
ratio lowered on commons
TICKER
SNGS RX
Target price
RUB 31.81
The BoD of Surgutneftegas recommended that shareholders at the AGM approve
dividend payments for 2013 at RUB 2.36 per preferred and RUB 0.6 per common share.
Closing price
RUB 26.12
Recommendation
NEUTRAL
The record date for those eligible to receive dividends is July 16.
Upside
22%
Equity implications. The amount of pref dividends was no surprise for the market, as
they were disbursed in line with the charter, matching our expectations and the
consensus.
Ratings
-
TICKER
SNGSP RX
However, the payout ratio for commons was lowered considerably compared to last year,
as we expected RUB 0.79 per common share in view of the net income dynamic.
Notably, as opposed to prefs, no dividend payout ratio is specified for common shares in
the company’s charter.
Target price
RUB 28.30
Closing price
RUB 26.32
Recommendation
OVERWEIGHT
Upside
8%
Ratings
-
There are not many objective reasons for this. According to our estimates,
Surgutneftegas’ cash flow for 2013 amounted to RUB 81 bln, while the total amount of
dividends payable reached RUB 39.6 bln. This means that the company had a cash
cushion. In addition, the P&L statement also showed a record amount of interest
receivable – RUB 53.5 bln, which also made it possible for the company to pay out
bigger dividends on common shares. The only negative issue was the cash flow
statement, according to which Surgutneftegas reported interest totaling just RUB 32 bln,
only RUB 1 bln more than in 2012, although this could be due to a time lag.
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
In our opinion, these numbers do not provide grounds for making any far-reaching
conclusions, as Surgutneftegas is still capable of generating ample FCF. On the strength
of core activity alone, dividend payments could be expected to increase by RUB 10 bln
compared to last year, which means that the company simply reduced payouts for a
class of shares where this was permissible.
According to current share prices, commons can be expected to yield 2.4% and prefs
9.3%.
Partial privatization of state stake in Rosneft may commence in 2014
TICKER
ROSN RX
Economy Minister Alexey Ulyukaev said that the state stake in Rosneft subject to
privatization could be divested either in full or in part, depending on the investment
advisor's position. Moreover, part of the stake could be offloaded as soon as this year.
Target price
$8.8
Closing price
$6.7
Recommendation
NEUTRAL
Equity implications. According to the privatization schedule, the state stake in Rosneft
could be lowered from the current 69.5% to 50%+1 share by 2016. The likelihood of a
sizable stake in Rosneft being offered to the market starting this year may well put some
pressure on market sentiment.
Upside
31%
Ratings
BBB-/Baa1/-
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimate
The possibility that privatization could get underway as soon as 2014 was announced
earlier. Moreover, the option of selling the state stake in portions could slightly reduce
the size of the potential stake. However, it increases the chances that such a deal may
occur as early as 2014-15, depending on the market environment.
Research Department
9
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Rosneft may acquire 50% stake in Pechora LNG
Rosneft might enter into a JV for LNG production with Alltech Group on the basis of the
Pechora LNG project, Vedomosti reports citing own sources. Rosneft will hold a 50%+1
share stake in the JV, according to the business daily. According to Interfax, Rosneft’s
share may be 50%. The state company might allocate over $100 mln for the JV, while
Alltech Group might contribute the assets of Pechora LNG project.
Equity implications. Given the very low entry price, creation of the JV would enable
Rosneft to expand into the highly attractive LNG production and export business, which
has strategic importance for the company. Rosneft is well-positioned to deliver the
project within a tight time frame.
LNG exports from Pechora LNG project are planned through the ice-free Indiga port on
the coast of the Barents Sea, which should substantially reduce costs. Of special interest
are the opportunities to further develop and increase the scale of the project taking into
account the substantial gas reserves base in Timano-Pechora region and potential asset
acquisitions in the region.
Potentially, there could be also an option for the participation of other companies in the
project in case of mutual interest among the parties.
Gazprom Neft publishes 1Q14 IFRS financial results
TICKER
SIBN RX
Gazprom Neft on Friday released consolidated IFRS results for 1Q14.
Target price
n/r
Equity implications. Gazprom Neft’s report turned out to be broadly in line with
expectations. In terms of the core metric, the company’s EBITDA came in 2% below the
consensus, matching the expectations for net income. In addition, revenues were 1.7%
below consensus.
Closing price
$4.1
Recommendation
n/r
Upside
n/r
Ratings
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
Dynamics of financial indicators. The lower ruble exchange rate exerted a positive
impact on export netbacks, which approached all-time highs in ruble terms (+2% QoQ).
Gazprom Neft ramped up deliveries of non-FSU oil products in 1Q14, boosting revenues,
but this also translated into higher export duties. Furthermore, there was a decline in
Russian oil product sales and a sharp decrease in oil exports to FSU countries.
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
EBITDA impacted by revenues, as well as higher excise rates and export duties.
Cost-cutting, including operating and SG&A expenses, was still strong. Net income was
lower mainly due to FX rate differences and a smaller share of JVs in net income.
Capex and FCF. The company reported strong cash flow of RUB 22.5 bln in 1Q14. In
addition, capex was 27% less than in 1Q13 due to harsh weather in 1Q14 and partly to the
high-base effect, as capex tends to be higher around year end.
Overall, we rate the company’s 1Q14 performance as neutral.
Gazprom Neft 1Q14 IFRS results, RUB mln
1Q14
1Q14C
DEVIATION FROM CONSENSUS
4Q13
QOQ
1Q13
YOY
Revenues
385.17
391.921
-1.7%
355.954
8.2%
386.691
-0.4%
EBITDA
75.747
77.306
-2.0%
68.358
10.8%
72.505
4.5%
EBITDA margin
19.7%
19.7%
0.0 pps
19.2%
0.5 pps
18.8%
0.9 pps
Net income
37.816
37.86
-0.1%
39.567
-4.4%
42.763
-11.6%
OCF
70.977
n/a
n/a
43.928
61.6%
56.824
24.9%
Capex
48.458
n/a
n/a
36.857
31.5%
66.174
-26.8%
FCF
22.519
n/a
n/a
7.071
218.5%
-9.35
-340.8%
C – Interfax consensus estimates
Source: company, Gazprombank estimates
Research Department
10
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Debt implications. Total debt rose 23% QoQ to RUB 387 bln. In 1Q14, Gazprom Neft
raised a $2.15 bln syndicated loan that was provided under attractive terms
(LIBOR+1.5%) and facilitated a significant liquidity cushion of RUB 200 bln. As a result,
net debt/LTM EBITDA remained at around 0.6х, while debt/LTM EBITDA rose from 1.1х
to 1.3х. The company’s management confirmed that Gazprom Neft has no plans for
further borrowing in 2014. The management also said it plans to gradually increase the
share of ruble-denominated loans in the company’s loan portfolio, which increases the
possibility of an offering of ruble bonds in the future.
We estimate Gazprom Neft’s annual operating cash flow at over RUB 290 bln in 2014.
Together with cash of RUB 200 bln, this will be more than enough to cover the planned
capex (RUB 330 bln), final dividends (around RUB 19.4 bln) and refinancing of shortterm debt (RUB 56 bln). Even if net debt increases amid the use of these liquid assets,
we estimate that net debt/LTM EBITDA will remain well below the internal limit of 1.5х.
Therefore, the solid liquidity portfolio and moderate debt burden look supportive for the
company’s SIBNEF 23 (YTM 6.00%, Z-spread 355 bps) and SIBNEF 22 (YTM 5.77%, Zspread 343 bps) eurobonds. These issues were well bid this week, with their premiums
over the GAZPRU/LUKOIL curves narrowing from 50-90 bps seen last week to current
60-80 bps. That said, at current levels we could still see some residual premium squeeze
given the supportive market environment and lack of expectations regarding primary
supply in the near future.
Gazprom Neft 1Q14 key IFRS credit metrics
4Q13
1Q14
QOQ
1Q13
1Q14
YOY
Equity
998.0
1,042.3
4%
911.3
1,042.3
14%
Total debt
313.9
386.7
23%
230.1
386.7
68%
17%
15%
-2 pps
28%
15%
-13 pps
91.1
200.3
2.2х
70.9
200.3
2.8х
Debt/ Equity, х
24%
27%
-
20%
27%
-
EBITDA/interest expense, х
20.5
26.0
-
22.4
26.0
-
0.7
0.6
-
0.5
0.6
-
22%
22%
-
19%
22%
-
incl. share of short-term debt, %
Cash and cash equivalents
RATIOS
Net debt/12М EBITDA, х
12М FCF/debt, %
Source: company, Gazprombank estimates
Gazprom Neft holds conference call following release of 1Q14 IFRS
results
TICKER
SIBN RX
Target price
n/r
Gazprom Neft’s management held a conference call following the release of IFRS results
for 1Q14.
Closing price
$4.1
Recommendation
n/r
Equity implications. Topics of interest
Upside
n/r
Ratings
BBB-/Baa2/BBB

Capex plans for 2014-15. Gazprom Neft intends to spend RUB 330 bln in 2014 and
RUB 255 bln in 2015. We note that the capex estimate for 2014 was 10% higher
than the guidance voiced during Gazprom’s Investor Day in March 2014. The capex
estimate for 2015 is in line with the previous dollar-based forecasts.

Possible acquisition of a Vietnamese refinery. The company could acquire a
stake in a Vietnam-based refinery provided that Gazprom Neft is certain the project
is cost-effective. No decision has been made yet.

SeverEnergiya. SeverEnergiya’s loss in 1Q14 was attributable to higher interest
expenses on a loan taken out to finance the buyout of a stake from Italian
shareholders. Losses associated with a recent fire that broke out at the
Research Department
11
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Samburgskoye field in April are subject to final estimates. At present, is not possible
to accurately assess their impact on production volumes and repair costs.

Oil transportation costs. A moderate increase in oil transportation costs in 1Q14
was due to cessation of the substitution scheme, earlier applied together with
Rosneft.

Tax regime for the Prirazlomnoye field. Development of the Prirazlomnoye field
has reached the breakeven point under the current taxation parameters, but it
remains a low-margin project. Gazprom Neft’s management believes that the use of
a tax regime currently applicable to new offshore fields would be fair for the
Prirazlomnoye field. Consultations with regulators are currently underway but no
progress has been reached thus far.
A moderate increase in total capex without further disclosure of the reasons behind this
increase could put some pressure on market sentiment. As for other issues, the
conference call brought no surprises.
Eurasia Drilling – slower decline in drilling in April
TICKER
EDCL LI
Eurasia Drilling Co (EDC) announced that drilling volumes in April totaled around
500,000 m, or 5.6% less than in April 2013.
Target price
$42.6
Closing price
$27.8
Equity implications. To remind, EDC’s drilling volumes fell 12% QoQ in 1Q14. Thus,
before the “high” season (which usually begins in May), the company appears to have
already completed the redeployment of part of drilling stations that previously worked on
Rosneft projects.
Recommendation
OVERWIGHT
Upside
53%
Ratings
BB+/-/BB
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
Nonetheless, the company probably faces a decline in drilling volumes as well as
financial results. A resumption of growth can be expected no earlier than in 1H15.
Research Department
12
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
First Saint-Petersburg Economic Forum contracts.
Yamal Trade and Gazprom Marketing & Trading Singapore sign LNG agreement
Gazprom and Novatek signed the agreement for the supply of liquefied natural gas
(LNG) between Yamal Trade and Gazprom Marketing & Trading Singapore. The
document provides for the supply of up to three million tons of LNG per annum produced
by Yamal LNG.
The term of the Agreement is more than 20 years and LNG will be supplied on the free
on board (“FOB”) basis at a transshipment point in Western Europe for further delivery to
the Asian-Pacific region, primarily to India. The LNG price is crude oil indexed.
Rosneft Signed Long-Term Supply Contract with EuroChem
Forum Rosneft and EuroChem signed a 6-year contract for gas supplies. The agreement
envisages a total volum of 9.84 bcm of gas supplies to EuroChem production facilities till
the 31st of December of 2019.
The signed agreements lay the foundation for the expansion of cooperation between
companies in the gas sphere.
Eni and Gazprom signed agreement on revision of gas supply terms
The agreement involves a reduction in supply prices and an important change in the
price indexation to fully align it with the market. In addition, in 2014 Eni’s ability to
recover gas pre-paid under "take or pay" clauses will be significantly enhanced.
The terms apply retroactively from the start of 2014.
The agreement reached today with Gazprom is a key part of Eni’s effort to renegotiate all
third-party long-term gas supply contracts, with the target of achieving a fully competitive
portfolio
LUKOIL and Gazprom heads signed general agreement on strategic partnership
till 2024
The cooperation stipulates joint prospecting of hydrocarbons in foreign states. The
companies are going to develop the crude shipment by sea from the northern area of
Nenetsky and Yamalo-Nenetsky regions.
The previous general agreement on the strategic partnership between the companies
was signed in 2005 till 2014. Now several joint projects are under development (in the
northern part of the Caspian Sea and at Sosnogorsky Refinery).
IEA: US LNG export price will be comparable with current European
quotes.
At the Flame 2014 conference, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said that the
International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the US to start exporting liquefied natural gas
(L NG) at prices comparable to current European levels.
He also highlighted that, firstly, the US LNG will not come to the market immediately.
Secondly, LNG prices in the US will not decline and, given costs for liquefaction and
transportation, will amount to $11 per MBtu, which is close to current LNG prices in
Europe.
In 2013, LNG prices in Europe stood at about $11 per MBtu, while in Japan they totaled
$17 per MBtu, and at Henry Hub LNG about $4 per MBtu.
Birol noted that the IEA anticipates LNG exports from Canada, Australia and Africa by
2020, which will make the global LNG market more flexible.
Research Department
13
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
EIA cuts Monterey shale estimates on extraction challenges
The Energy Information Administration slashed its estimate of recoverable reserves from
California’s Monterey Shale by 96%, saying oil from one of the largest US formations will
be harder to extract than previously anticipated.
The Monterey Shale is now estimated to hold 600 mln bbl of technically recoverable oil,
down from a 2012 projection of 13.7 bln bbl. The revision confirms what some in the oil
industry had suspected: the bounty from California’s shale is out of reach for now,
delaying an oil rush that was predicted to bring jobs and added tax revenue to the
Golden State.
The EIA has revised its Monterey estimate before, dropping it from 15.4 bln bbl to 13.7
bln bll in 2012. The formation was previously ranked as the largest source of recoverable
shale oil reserves in the US, exceeding the Bakken.
Lukoil, Total to form 50-50 JV to develop Bazhenov shale
The companies plan to form a JV to work at the Bazhenov shale formation (Western
Siberia). The JV will work on two license blocks of the Lukoil subsidiary Lukoil-RITEK.
Total may pass three licenses to the JV for exploration of three license blocks at the
Bazhenov formation held by the company.
We note that at end March the companies signed a memorandum to develop the
Bazhenov shale oil fields in Western Siberia. According to Interfax, Lukoil plans to
extract some 0.7 bln bbl of oil from the Bazhenov formation this year.
Research Department
14
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
EQUITY PERFORMANCE
Equity weekly performance, in USD, % change
Gazprombank recommendations
Novatek
GPB REC.
TARGET PRICE, $ CLOSING PRICE, $
RUSSIAN OIL COMPANIES
Bashneft
N
74.9
66.2
Lukoil
OW
87.7
57.3
Rosneft
N
8.8
6.7
SurgutNG
N
0.9
0.8
Tatneft ADR
N
37.2
38.5
PREFERRED SHARES
Bashneft
OW
60.0
45.2
SurgutNG
OW
0.8
0.8
Tatneft
N
3.0
3.7
RUSSIAN GAS COMPANIES
Gazprom
OW
6.1
4.2
NOVATEK
OW
122.0
RUSSIAN PIPELINE COMPANIES
Transneft pref
N
2388
2506
RUSSIAN OFS COMPANIES
EDC
OW
42.6
27.8
C.A.T. Oil
OW
25.6
18.2
IGSS
OW
50.6
26.0
7.3%
Tatneft
7.0%
SurgutNG
4.9%
Bashneft
4.5%
Transneft
4.1%
Lukoil
3.6%
Rosneft
2.4%
Eurasia Drilling
1.6%
Gazprom neft
0.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Source: Bloomberg on 22.05.2014
33%
7%
-17%
45%
-5%
53%
41%
95%
Operational valuation
15
25
SurgutNG
9
RD Shell
PetroChina
Novatek
EM
Bashneft
7
Petrobras
Russian oils
Tatneft
5
Lukoil
3
Gazprom neft
Rosneft
3
4
PetroChina
ConocoPhillips
10
BP
5
Bashneft
5
Lukoil Russian oils
Gazprom neft
Tatneft
Novatek
Gazprom
0
SurgutNG
0
50
100
1
2
15
6
7
8
9
150
200
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg on 22.05.2014
25%
Rosneft
Novatek
20%
Novatek
15%
EM
Lukoil
PetroChina
Gazprom neft
1%
3-yr CAGR Net income
Petrobras
Gazprom
DM
RD Shell
Russian
Chevron ConocoPhillips ExxonMobil
oils
Total
Bashneft
SurgutNG
5
7
Bashneft PetroChina
Tatneft
Russian
oils
Gazprom neft
Gazprom
-5%
DM
ConocoPhillips
RD Shell
ExxonMobil
Chevron
SurgutNG
-20%
9
2
EV/EBITDA 15
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
P/E 15
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg on 22.05.2014
Research Department
Total
Rosneft
5%
0%
BP
EM
-15%
Tatneft
3
Petrobras
Lukoil
10%
-10%
-4%
1
350
Net income growth valuation
21%
6%
300
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg on 22.05.2014
EBITDA growth valuation
11%
250
EV/Production 15
EV/EBITDA 15
16%
ExxonMobil
EM
DM
Total
Petrobras
Rosneft
Gazprom
1
Chevron
20
DM
Chevron
Total
BP
11
RD Shell
ExxonMobil
ConocoPhillips
EV/Reserves
13
P/E 15
13%
53%
31%
22%
-3%
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg on 22.05.2014
Financial valuation
3-yr CAGR EBITDA
UPSIDE
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg on 22.05.2014
15
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
EQUITY VALUATION
GPB
RATING
PERFORMANCE, $
EV/EBITDA
P/E
EV/PRODUCTION
CLOSING
PRICE, $
MARKET
CAP, $ MLN
5D
1M
YTD
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
EV/RESERVES
DIVIDEND
YIELD, 14
66.2
12,663
5%
11%
9%
4.4х
4.7х
7.3х
7.5х
124х
-9%
2.9х
2.7х
3.7х
3.8х
58х
121х
7.2х
9.3%
55х
2.8х
-7%
2.7х
2.4х
3.2х
3.3х
3.8%
64х
61х
3.4х
-12%
4.7х
4.2х
5.1х
3.1%
4.8х
81х
78х
6.1х
-12%
1.5х
1.5х
5.6%
8.6х
8.9х
7х
7х
0.6х
2%
4.4х
2.3%
4.2х
6.4х
6.2х
85х
85х
2.5х
3.7%
3.4х
3.3х
5.7х
5.8х
70х
68х
3.8х
4.6%
RUSSIAN OIL COMPANIES
Bashneft
N
Gazprom Neft
Lukoil
n/r
OW
Rosneft
N
SurgutNG
N
Tatneft
N
4.1
57.3
6.7
0.8
6.4
19,439
48,707
71,032
33,109
14,570
1%
4%
2%
3%
7%
3%
9%
4%
7%
10%
Average
RUSSIAN GAS COMPANIES
Gazprom
OW
4.2
99,873
2%
14%
-1%
2.4х
2.5х
3.1х
3.2х
40х
40х
1.2х
5.0%
NOVATEK
OW
11.3
34,303
7%
17%
-8%
8.6х
7.9х
10.5х 9.2х
89х
79х
2.5х
1.2%
5.5х
5.2х
6.8х
6.2х
64х
60х
1.8х
3.1%
Average
RUSSIAN PIPELINE COMPANIES
Transneft pref
4%
11%
-5%
3.3х
3.3х
2.4х
2.4х
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.8%
4,081
2%
14%
-38%
4.8х
4.6х
9.1х
8.8х
n/a
n/a
n/a
3.2%
271
-7%
-4%
-13%
3.9х
3.4х
8.9х
5.5х
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.0%
24.8
1,213
16%
16%
-12%
8.4х
6.5х
17.1х 13.0х
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.9%
OW
45.2
1,346
2%
4%
4%
3.0х
3.2х
5.0х
5.1х
85х
83х
4.9х
13.6%
OW
0.8
5,907
5%
12%
-3%
1.5х
1.5х
8.6х
9.0х
7х
7х
0.6х
9.0%
N
3.7
539
2%
7%
-1%
2.5х
2.4х
3.6х
3.5х
48х
49х
1.4х
6.6%
2.3х
2.4х
5.7х
5.9х
47х
46х
2.3х
9.7%
N
2506.2
17,799
EDC
OW
27.8
IGSS
OW
26.0
C.A.T. Oil
OW
Bashneft
SurgutNG
RUSSIAN OFS COMPANIES
PREFERRED SHARES
Tatneft
Average
EMERGING MARKET OILS
PetroChina
n/r
1.2
224,052
3%
8%
12%
5.2х
4.9х
10.5х 10.0х
221х
211х
14.3х
3.4%
Petrobras
n/r
8.0
100,286
-2%
12%
10%
5.9х
4.9х
8.3х
6.6х
202х
194х
15.1х
4.6%
Kunlun
n/r
1.6
13,076
3%
-1%
-5%
7.1х
6.2х
12.6х 11.4х
839х
839х
18.3х
2.2%
Sinopec
n/r
0.9
97,397
0%
-2%
12%
4.7х
4.4х
8.1х
7.5х
334х
322х
39.2х
3.5%
YPF
n/r
39.2
15,423
4%
7%
-12%
4.4х
3.4х
14.9х 11.0х
105х
105х
19.0х
0.3%
CNOOC
n/r
1.7
78,082
2%
5%
-5%
3.8х
3.5х
8.6х
8.2х
214х
214х
24.1х
2.9%
PTT EP
n/r
4.8
18,975
0%
-2%
-4%
3.7х
3.5х
9.3х
8.9х
182х
182х
22.9х
4.2%
ONGC
n/r
6.9
59,348
3%
25%
44%
6.0х
5.0х
13.3х 10.8х
142х
142х
8.5х
2.5%
SasolLtd
n/r
57.5
37,392
2%
4%
17%
6.4х
6.3х
11.3х 11.1х
455х
455х
24.9х
0.0%
MOL
n/r
61.8
6,454
3%
6%
-7%
4.7х
4.4х
10.3х 9.2х
279х
279х
17.6х
3.4%
KazMunaiGas EP
n/r
13.2
5,566
-13%
-12%
-16%
2.8х
3.1х
4.0х
4.9х
26х
26х
0.6х
10.6%
5.0х
4.5х 10.1х 9.0х
273х
270х
18.6х
3.4%
Average
DEVELOPED MARKETS MAJORS
BP
n/r
51.2
157,340
0%
4%
6%
4.7х
4.5х
10.5х 10.1х
160х
154х
10.8х
4.6%
Chevron
n/r
123.6
235,350
0%
0%
0%
4.6х
4.5х
11.4х 11.1х
251х
237х
21.2х
3.4%
ConocoPhillips
n/r
78.5
96,326
1%
6%
12%
4.8х
4.7х
12.3х 12.3х
197х
186х
12.9х
3.6%
ENI
n/r
25.1
91,184
-2%
-3%
4%
3.9х
3.6х
14.3х 12.2х
207х
196х
17.2х
6.1%
ExxonMobil
n/r
101.5
435,879
1%
1%
1%
6.0х
6.1х
13.2х 13.5х
306х
298х
18.3х
2.6%
RD Shell
n/r
40.0
258,367
1%
6%
12%
4.9х
4.7х
11.1х 10.8х
258х
252х
22.1х
4.7%
Statoil
n/r
30.3
96,608
0%
4%
26%
2.7х
2.6х
11.5х 11.5х
152х
146х
19.6х
4.1%
Total
n/r
71.1
169,007
0%
3%
16%
4.7х
4.5х
11.2х 10.5х
241х
223х
17.3х
4.7%
4.5х
4.4х 12.0х 11.5х
222х
212х
17.4х
4.2%
Average
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg on 22.05.2014
Research Department
16
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME SUMMARY
Russian O&G majors capital structure
EM O&G debt-relative valuation, as of May 23
100%
700
80%
600
60%
500
Z-SPREAD,
BPS
SIBNEF 4.375
22
300
20%
GAZPROM
RUBLE BONDS
ROSNEFT
LUKOIL
EUROBONDS
GAZPROM
NEFT
NOVATEK BASHNEFT TRANSNEFT
BANK LOANS AND OTHER INDEBTEDNESS
NVTKRM 4.422
22
100
NET DEBT/ LTM EBITDA
0
EQUITY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
2.0
3.5
4.0
Alliance Oil 20
Novatek 22
SibNeft 18E
Gazprom 20P
Gazprom 17E.NOV
Novatek 21
TNK 20
SibNeft 22
Gazprom 18E 3.7
Gazprom 28
0
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
EM O&G primary market
EM O&G latest deals
70%
USD bln
8
3.0
Russia O&G eurobonds weekly top >5Y movers (Z-spreads to MS)
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
9
2.5
Source: companies, Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
Russia O&G eurobonds weekly top 3-5Y movers (Z-spreads to MS)
-40
PETBRA 5.375
21
PEMEX 4.875
22
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
-45
ROSNRM 4.199
22
GAZPRU 4.95
SOIAZ 4.75 23
LUKOIL 6.656
22
22
KZOKZ 6.375 21
200
0%
SIBUR 3.914 18
EDCLLI 4.875
20
400
40%
VOSTOK 7 20
Date
60%
7
02.05.14 GENEL ENERGY
50%
6
Company
CHINA NATIONAL PETROLEUM
07.05.14
CORP
CHINA NATIONAL PETROLEUM
07.05.14
CORP
Rating
Country
Cur.
Volume,
USD mln
Tenor
Coupon
-/-/-
TURKEY
USD
500
5
7.50
A1/A+/A+
CHINA
USD
750
3
L+90
A1/A+/A+
CHINA
USD
750
5
2.75
5
40%
4
30%
08.05.14 DELEK & AVNER - YAM TETHYS
Baa3/BBB-/-
ISRAEL
USD
400
7
4.435
20%
08.05.14 DELEK & AVNER - YAM TETHYS
Baa3/BBB-/-
ISRAEL
USD
400
12
5.412
08.05.14 DELEK & AVNER - YAM TETHYS
Baa3/BBB-/-
ISRAEL
USD
400
10
5.082
08.05.14 DELEK & AVNER - YAM TETHYS
Baa3/BBB-/-
ISRAEL
USD
400
5
3.839
3
2
Primary O&G deals
08.05.14 DELEK & AVNER - YAM TETHYS
May 14
Apr 14
Mar 14
Feb 14
Jan 14
0%
Dec 13
0
Nov 13
10%
Oct 13
1
Share of total deals (rhs)
Source: Bond Radar, GPB
Research Department
Baa3/BBB-/-
ISRAEL
USD
400
3
2.803
20.05.14 ECOPETROL
Ваа2/ВВВ/ВВВ
COLOMBIA
USD
2000
31
5.875
22.05.14 PERTAMINA
Ваа3/ВВ+/ВВВ-
INDONESIA
USD
1500
30
6.45
Source: Bond Radar, Bloomberg, GPB
17
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME VALUATION
Russian oil and gas: local and E/C bonds universe
BKE
YIELD, %
10.5
10.0
BashN-9
BashN-7
Novtk17R
BashN-6
Rosneft-04
GazpNeft-10
BashN-1
BashN-2
9.5
GazpNeft-9 GazpNeft-8
NOVATEK-2bo
NK Alliance-4
GazpCap-6 NK Alliance-6
GazpNeft-11 BashN-4
NOVATEK-4bo
TransGazS
9.0
8.5
8.0
BashN-3
Transneft-1bo
7.5
Rosneft-10
Rosneft-09
Rosneft-01bo
Rosneft-06
BashN-8
Rosneft-07bo
GazpCap-4
Rosneft-08
Rosneft-06bo
Rosneft-07
Rosneft-05bo
GazpNeft-12
NOVATEK-3bo
Rosneft-05
GazpNeft-4
Gazprom-11
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
Transneft-2bo
DURATION, YEARS
4.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
● — YIELD TO MATURITY ▲ — YIELD TO PUT ■ — YIELD TO CALL BOND^ — SUBORDINATED
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
YIELD, %
Russian oil and gas: USD eurobonds universe
7.0
6.5
Gaz34
Alliance15
SibNft23
Novtk21
SibNft22 Novtk22
RosNft22
Rus28
Gaz22 6.51
Gaz22 Lukoil23
4.95
Gaz21
Lukoil22
TNK20
Lukoil20
Lukoil19
Gaz19
Gaz20
Rus23
TNK18
Rus30
Gaz18
Rus22
TrNft18 Lukoil18
TNK17
Rus20
TNK16 RosNft17
Novtk16 Lukoil17
Rus19
Gaz16NOV
Gaz16MAY
TNK15
Rus18
Gaz15
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
1.5
Gaz28
Rus42
Rus43
Rus17
Lukoil14
Gaz14
2.0
UST Curve
Gaz37
Rus15
1.0
0.5
DURATION, YEARS
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
● — YIELD TO MATURITY ▲ — YIELD TO PUT ■ — YIELD TO CALL BOND^ — SUBORDINATED
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
Research Department
18
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME VALUATION
Oil and gas: Russia vs. EM
Gaz34
Gaz37
Petrobras40
YIELD, %
7.0
6.5
Petrobras41
UST Curve
Pemex27.2 Gaz28
6.0
Rus43
Rus42
Pemex38
Pemex41
Pemex45
Pemex35.1 Pemex44.1
Rus28
Gaz22 6.51
Gaz22
4.95
Gaz21
Pemex24
Pemex23FPemex22F.1
8.625
Petrobras21
Pemex23 3.5
Gaz19
Gaz20
Rus23
Rus30 Petrobras20
Rus22
Gaz18
Petrobras19
Rus20
Pemex22.5
Pemex21.1
Petrobras18
8.375
Pemex21.2
Gaz16NOV
Rus19
Pemex20
5.875
Gaz16MAY Petrobras18
Pemex22.4
Rus18
Pemex19F
Gaz15
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Petrobras17
Pemex19
Rus17 Pemex18.4
Petrobras16 6.125
Pemex22.2
Gaz14
Pemex22.3
Petrobras16 3.875
2.5
2.0
1.5
Rus15
Pemex15F 5.75
Petrobras15
Petrobras14
Pemex15F 4.875
Pemex14F
1.0
0.5
DURATION, YEARS
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
● — YIELD TO MATURITY ▲ — YIELD TO PUT ■ — YIELD TO CALL BOND^ — SUBORDINATED
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
Oil and gas: Russia vs. CIS
YIELD, %
7.0
6.5
Gaz34
Alliance15
SibNft23
Zhaik19
Novtk21
SibNft22 Novtk22
Zhaik19N
RosNft22
Rus28
Gaz22 6.51
Gaz22 Lukoil23
4.95
Gaz21
Lukoil22
Zhaik19N
TNK20
Lukoil20
GeoOilGas17
Lukoil19
SOCAR23
Gaz19
Gaz20
KMG23 Rus23
TNK18
Rus30 KMG21 Rus22
Gaz18
TrNft18 Lukoil18
KMG20
TNK17
Rus20
TNK16 RosNft17
KMG18
Novtk16 Lukoil17
TShO14
Rus19
Gaz16NOV
KTG17
Gaz16MAY
TNK15
Rus18
Gaz15
SOCAR17
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
1.5
Gaz28
KMG43
Rus43
Rus42
Rus17
Lukoil14
KMG15
Gaz14
2.0
UST Curve
Gaz37
Rus15
1.0
0.5
DURATION, YEARS
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
● — YIELD TO MATURITY ▲ — YIELD TO PUT ■ — YIELD TO CALL BOND^ — SUBORDINATED
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
Research Department
19
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME VALUATION
Gazprom 19 –Pemex 18.4
Gazprom 19 – Petrobras 19
LAST 221 AVG 176 MAX 319 MIN 117
340
LAST 71 AVG 5 MAX 164 MIN -66
200
150
290
100
240
50
190
0
140
-50
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
50
240
0
190
-50
140
-100
90
-150
Rosneft 22 – Russia 22
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
MAY-14
APR-14
MAR-14
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
JUL-13
JUN-13
MAY-13
MAY-14
AUG-13
APR-14
80
MAR-14
70
FEB-14
100
JAN-14
90
DEC-13
120
NOV-13
110
OCT-13
140
SEP-13
130
JUL-13
LAST 139 AVG 118 MAX 154 MIN 92
160
AUG-13
LAST 103 AVG 115 MAX 147 MIN 89
JUN-13
MAY-14
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Gazprom 37 –Russia 42
MAY-13
APR-14
FEB-14
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
MAR-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
AUG-13
JUL-13
MAY-13
JUN-13
-200
MAY-14
APR-14
MAR-14
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
AUG-13
JUL-13
JUN-13
40
MAY-13
LAST -105 AVG -10 MAX 56 MIN -175
100
290
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Rosneft 22 –Lukoil 23
Gazprom 25E – Gazprom 17E 5.136%
LAST 33 AVG -1 MAX 67 MIN -39
80
MAY-14
Petrobras 17 –Lukoil 17
LAST 181 AVG 114 MAX 279 MIN 47
150
APR-14
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Rosneft 22 –Pemex 22.5
340
MAR-14
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
AUG-13
JUL-13
MAY-13
JUN-13
-100
MAY-14
APR-14
MAR-14
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
AUG-13
JUL-13
JUN-13
MAY-13
90
LAST 121 AVG 156 MAX 204 MIN 73
260
60
40
210
20
160
0
110
-20
Research Department
MAY-14
APR-14
MAR-14
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
AUG-13
JUL-13
MAY-13
MAY-14
APR-14
MAR-14
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
AUG-13
JUL-13
JUN-13
MAY-13
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
JUN-13
60
-40
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
20
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME VALUATION
Gazprom Neft 12– OFZ 26206
Rosneft 04 – OFZ 26206
LAST 67 AVG 114 MAX 207 MIN -108
LAST 0 AVG 120 MAX 280 MIN -61
300
200
150
200
100
100
50
0
0
-50
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
MAY-14
MAY-14
MAY-14
MAY-14
APR-14
MAR-14
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
AUG-13
JUL-13
JUN-13
MAY-13
MAY-14
-100
APR-14
-40
MAR-14
0
FEB-14
60
JAN-14
100
DEC-13
160
NOV-13
200
OCT-13
LAST 0 AVG 34 MAX 288 MIN -41
300
260
SEP-13
APR-14
NOVATEK 17R – Gazprom Capital 05
LAST 96 AVG 52 MAX 317 MIN -400
AUG-13
MAR-14
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
NOVATEK 17R – NOVATEK 2BO
JUL-13
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
MAY-13
MAY-14
APR-14
MAR-14
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
AUG-13
JUL-13
-150
AUG-13
-50
-100
JUL-13
0
JUN-13
50
JUN-13
LAST 0 AVG -3 MAX 121 MIN -204
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
100
JUN-13
APR-14
Gazprom Neft 12 – Rosneft 04
LAST 63 AVG 37 MAX 119 MIN -118
MAY-13
MAR-14
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
Bashneft 06 –Gazprom Neft 12
MAY-13
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
MAY-13
MAY-14
APR-14
MAR-14
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
AUG-13
JUL-13
JUN-13
-50
SEP-13
0
AUG-13
50
JUL-13
100
JUN-13
150
MAY-13
LAST -10 AVG 79 MAX 166 MIN -106
180
140
100
60
20
-20
-60
-100
200
Research Department
APR-14
Gazprom Capital 04 – OFZ 26204
LAST 105 AVG 132 MAX 606 MIN -63
360
MAR-14
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
NOVATEK-2BO – OFZ 25075
150
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
AUG-13
JUL-13
MAY-13
JUN-13
-100
MAY-14
APR-14
MAR-14
FEB-14
JAN-14
DEC-13
NOV-13
OCT-13
SEP-13
AUG-13
JUL-13
JUN-13
MAY-13
-100
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
21
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
BashNeft-1
97.80
+50
127
+59
BashNeft-2
98.00
-
117
+10
BashNeft-3
101.47
-
-122
BashNeft-4
100.25
+5
BashNeft-6
97.48
BashNeft-7
95.96
BashNeft-8
101.00
BashNeft-9
95.90
+90
190
BK Eurasia
96.62
-4
195
Gazprom Capital-4
98.00
Gazprom Capital-5
99.49
Gazprom Capital-6
97.90
-20
51
+39
Gazprom neft-10
99.90
-
104
Gazprom neft-11
99.75
-15
Gazprom neft-12
98.90
Gazprom neft-4
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
RATING
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
2.3
15,000
RUB
8.35
Dec 22, 2009
Dec 13, 2016
-/Ba2/BB
2.3
15,000
RUB
8.35
Dec 22, 2009
Dec 13, 2016
-/Ba2/BB
-
2.3
20,000
RUB
8.35
Dec 22, 2009
Dec 13, 2016
-/Ba2/BB
-4
+27
0.7
10,000
RUB
9.0
Feb 17, 2012
Feb 13, 2015
Feb 4, 2022
-/Ba2/BB
-452
155
+159
3.2
10,000
RUB
8.65
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 6, 2018
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba2/BB
-29
205
+16
4.5
10,000
RUB
8.85
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 4, 2020
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba2/BB
3.3
5,000
RUB
8.65
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 6, 2018
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba2/BB
-30
4.5
5,000
RUB
8.85
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 4, 2020
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba2/BB
+14
1.9
5,000
RUB
8.4
Jun 29, 2011
Jun 27, 2016
Jun 20, 2018
-/-/BB
3.3
5,000
RUB
7.55
Feb 21, 2013
Feb 15, 2018
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
2.6
10,000
RUB
7.55
Feb 21, 2013
Feb 16, 2017
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
1.6
15,000
RUB
7.5
Feb 21, 2013
Feb 18, 2016
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
+68
3.2
10,000
RUB
8.9
Feb 8, 2011
Feb 5, 2018
Jan 26, 2021
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
-49
+72
0.7
10,000
RUB
8.25
Feb 7, 2012
Feb 3, 2015
Jan 25, 2022
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
-
86
-
3.0
10,000
RUB
8.5
Dec 5, 2012
Nov 29, 2017
Nov 23, 2022
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
102.10
+509
-37
-135
3.4
10,000
RUB
8.2
Apr 21, 2009
Apr 16, 2018
Apr 9, 2019
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
Gazprom neft-8
99.35
+1
38
+71
1.6
10,000
RUB
8.5
Feb 8, 2011
Feb 2, 2016
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
Gazprom neft-9
99.30
1.6
10,000
RUB
8.5
Feb 8, 2011
Jan 26, 2021
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
Gazprom-11
100.55
0.1
5,000
RUB
13.75
Jun 30, 2009
Jun 24, 2014
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom-19bo (CPI)
10.17
15,000
RUB
7.3
Nov 27, 2013
Oct 21, 2043
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom-20bo (CPI)
100.00
15,000
RUB
7.3
Nov 27, 2013
Oct 21, 2043
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Geotech Seismorazvedka-1
96.40
2.2
3,000
RUB
10.5
Oct 23, 2013
Oct 19, 2016
Oct 17, 2018
B/-/-
NK Alliance-4
100.00
2.0
5,000
RUB
8.85
Jun 14, 2011
Jun 10, 2016
Jun 1, 2021
-/-/B
NK Alliance-6
100.00
-
-11
-
1.9
7,000
RUB
8.85
Jun 17, 2011
Jun 15, 2016
Jun 4, 2021
-/-/B
NOVATEK-2bo
99.40
-160
38
+219
1.3
10,000
RUB
8.35
Oct 15, 2012
Oct 12, 2015
BBB-/Baa3/BBB-
NOVATEK-3bo
101.17
+152
-133
-121
1.4
5,000
RUB
8.35
Oct 15, 2012
Oct 12, 2015
BBB-/Baa3/BBB-
NOVATEK-4bo
100.24
+124
-69
-110
1.3
5,000
RUB
8.35
Oct 15, 2012
Oct 12, 2015
BBB-/Baa3/BBB-
PromNefteService
100.00
-38
0.7
3,000
RUB
8.25
Dec 11, 2009
Dec 5, 2014
-/-/-
Rosneft-01bo
101.50
53
4.0
15,000
RUB
8.9
Feb 18, 2014
Feb 12, 2019
Feb 6, 2024
BBB-/Baa1/-
DOMESTIC BONDS
46
21
-14
34
-23
-255
-123
430
+95
+148
85
Feb 8, 2016
Rosneft-04
98.02
-
65
-
3.1
10,000
RUB
8.6
Oct 29, 2012
Oct 23, 2017
Oct 17, 2022
BBB-/Baa1/-
Rosneft-05
102.97
+547
-37
-177
3.0
10,000
RUB
8.6
Oct 29, 2012
Oct 23, 2017
Oct 17, 2022
BBB-/Baa1/-
Rosneft-05bo
100.08
+13
-3
+0
3.8
20,000
RUB
7.95
Dec 23, 2013
Dec 17, 2018
Dec 11, 2023
BBB-/Baa1/-
Rosneft-06
97.00
-377
102
+131
3.4
10,000
RUB
7.95
Jun 11, 2013
Jun 5, 2018
May 30, 2023
BBB-/Baa1/-
Rosneft-06bo
100.00
-
-1
+4
3.8
20,000
RUB
7.95
Dec 23, 2013
Dec 17, 2018
Dec 11, 2023
BBB-/Baa1/-
Rosneft-07
99.30
32
3.3
15,000
RUB
8.0
Mar 22, 2013
Mar 16, 2018
Mar 10, 2023
BBB-/Baa1/-
Rosneft-07bo
101.50
53
4.0
20,000
RUB
8.9
Feb 18, 2014
Feb 12, 2019
Feb 6, 2024
BBB-/Baa1/-
Rosneft-08
99.30
-
-25
-
3.4
15,000
RUB
8.0
Mar 22, 2013
Mar 16, 2018
Mar 10, 2023
BBB-/Baa1/-
Rosneft-09
97.00
-
44
-
3.5
15,000
RUB
7.95
Jun 11, 2013
Jun 5, 2018
May 30, 2023
BBB-/Baa1/-
Rosneft-10
96.80
-
41
-
3.5
15,000
RUB
7.95
Jun 11, 2013
Jun 5, 2018
May 30, 2023
BBB-/Baa1/-
Research Department
22
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
TransGazService
100.00
-
-157
-
Transneft-1
101.85
Transneft-1bo
99.89
Transneft-2
103.03
-
Transneft-2bo
102.00
-
Transneft-3
106.07
-17
-186
-556
-
0.6
0.6
0.6
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
RATING
PLACEMENT
8.25
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
Nov 26, 2014
-/-/-
May 25, 2009
May 20, 2015
May 13, 2019
BBB-/Baa1/-
3,000
RUB
35,000
RUB
Dec 2, 2009
17,000
RUB
7.5
Dec 24, 2012
Dec 22, 2014
Dec 21, 2015
BBB-/Baa1/-
35,000
RUB
9.25
Oct 13, 2009
Oct 8, 2015
Oct 1, 2019
BBB-/Baa1/-
17,000
RUB
7.5
Dec 24, 2012
Dec 22, 2014
Dec 21, 2015
BBB-/Baa1/-
65,000
RUB
9.65
Sep 30, 2009
Sep 23, 2015
Sep 18, 2019
BBB-/Baa1/B-/-/B
RUSSIA EUROBONDS
Alliance Oil 15
102.75
+19
565
-35
0.8
350
USD
9.875
Mar 11, 2010
Mar 11, 2015
Alliance Oil 20
92.15
+255
692
-52
4.9
500
USD
7.0
Apr 24, 2013
May 4, 2020
B-/-/B
Borets 18
96.32
+163
732
-40
3.7
420
USD
7.625
Sep 11, 2013
Sep 26, 2018
BB/B1/-
EDC 20
93.44
+135
439
-21
5.1
600
USD
4.875
Apr 11, 2013
Apr 17, 2020
BB+/-/BB
Gazprom 14
101.05
-17
186
-3
0.2
1,250
USD
8.125
Jul 31, 2009
Jul 31, 2014
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 14E.OCT
101.24
-1
209
-12
0.4
700
EUR
5.364
Jun 4, 2007
Oct 31, 2014
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 15
103.21
+35
237
-26
1.4
1,000
USD
5.092
Nov 29, 2010
Nov 29, 2015
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 15E.FEB
103.74
+0
216
-19
0.7
850
EUR
8.125
Jul 31, 2009
Feb 4, 2015
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 15E.JUN
103.10
-13
221
+6
1.0
1,000
EUR
5.875
Jun 1, 2005
Jun 1, 2015
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 16 MAY
103.31
+33
265
-17
1.9
1,000
USD
4.95
Nov 17, 2011
May 23, 2016
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 16 NOV
106.55
+42
274
-16
2.3
1,350
USD
6.212
Nov 22, 2006
Nov 22, 2016
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 17E 3.755
102.11
+56
249
-18
2.7
1,400
EUR
3.755
Jul 11, 2012
Mar 15, 2017
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 17E 5.136
105.88
+74
246
-25
2.7
500
EUR
5.136
Nov 22, 2006
Mar 22, 2017
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 17E.NOV
107.63
+73
253
-20
3.2
500
EUR
5.44
Mar 7, 2007
Nov 2, 2017
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 18
113.62
+38
310
-6
3.4
1,100
USD
8.146
Apr 11, 2008
Apr 11, 2018
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 18E 3.7
101.54
+75
265
-15
3.8
900
EUR
3.7
Jul 17, 2013
Jul 25, 2018
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 18E 6.605
111.41
+29
272
-6
3.4
1,200
EUR
6.605
Oct 25, 2007
Feb 13, 2018
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 19
119.56
+63
322
-8
4.1
2,250
USD
9.25
Apr 23, 2009
Apr 23, 2019
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 19C
101.18
+33
223
-1
5.0
500
CHF
2.85
Oct 16, 2013
Oct 25, 2019
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 20
96.04
+92
285
-11
5.1
800
USD
3.85
Jan 30, 2013
Feb 6, 2020
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 20E
99.37
+49
258
-5
5.3
1,000
EUR
3.389
Mar 13, 2013
Mar 20, 2020
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 20P
102.54
+175
262
-27
5.4
500
GBP
5.338
Sep 18, 2013
Sep 25, 2020
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 21
104.17
+88
326
-9
5.5
600
USD
5.999
Nov 17, 2011
Jan 23, 2021
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 21E
99.69
+36
257
-2
6.1
750
EUR
3.6
Feb 19, 2014
Feb 26, 2021
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 22 4.95
97.47
+115
305
-12
6.7
1,000
USD
4.95
Jul 11, 2012
Jul 19, 2022
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 22 6.51
106.62
+126
326
-13
6.2
1,300
USD
6.51
Mar 7, 2007
Mar 7, 2022
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 25E
101.93
+46
251
-1
8.8
500
EUR
4.364
Mar 13, 2013
Mar 21, 2025
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 28
89.36
+203
324
-20
9.7
900
USD
4.95
Jan 30, 2013
Feb 6, 2028
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 34
119.84
+234
380
-16
10.6
1,200
USD
8.625
Apr 28, 2004
Apr 28, 2034
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Gazprom 37
108.63
+313
346
-23
11.8
1,250
USD
7.288
Aug 16, 2007
Aug 16, 2037
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Lukoil 14
101.75
-6
199
-13
0.4
900
USD
6.375
Nov 5, 2009
Nov 5, 2014
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
Lukoil 15
101.18
+92
92
-89
1.0
1,500
USD
2.625
Dec 16, 2010
Jun 16, 2015
BBB-/-/-
Lukoil 17
108.09
+33
262
-8
2.7
500
USD
6.356
Jun 7, 2007
Jun 7, 2017
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
Research Department
23
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
RATING
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
Lukoil 18
97.47
-4
289
+9
3.7
1,500
USD
3.416
Apr 17, 2013
Apr 24, 2018
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
Lukoil 19
111.33
-28
317
+12
4.6
600
USD
7.25
Nov 5, 2009
Nov 5, 2019
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
Lukoil 20
105.33
-19
320
+10
5.4
1,000
USD
6.125
Nov 9, 2010
Nov 9, 2020
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
Lukoil 22
108.91
+54
305
-2
6.2
500
USD
6.656
Jun 7, 2007
Jun 7, 2022
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
Lukoil 23
94.55
+3
292
+6
7.3
1,500
USD
4.563
Apr 17, 2013
Apr 24, 2023
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
Novatek 16
103.06
+45
293
-26
1.7
600
USD
5.326
Mar 2, 2011
Mar 2, 2016
BBB-/Baa3/BBB-
Novatek 17R
95.32
+20
174
+1
2.5
14,000
RUB
7.75
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 21, 2017
BBB-/Baa3/BBB-
Novatek 21
104.50
+196
380
-29
5.4
650
USD
6.604
Feb 3, 2011
Feb 3, 2021
BBB-/Baa3/BBB-
Novatek 22
90.39
+294
350
-42
7.0
1,000
USD
4.422
Dec 6, 2012
Dec 13, 2022
BBB-/Baa3/BBB-
RosNeft 17
98.58
+31
275
-5
2.9
1,000
USD
3.149
Nov 29, 2012
Jun 3, 2017
BBB-/Baa1/-
RosNeft 22
90.62
+75
338
-5
6.7
2,000
USD
4.199
Nov 29, 2012
Jun 3, 2022
BBB-/Baa1/-
SibNeft 18E
97.59
+129
299
-32
3.7
750
EUR
2.933
Apr 18, 2013
Apr 26, 2018
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
SibNeft 22
90.77
+203
346
-27
6.9
1,500
USD
4.375
Sep 10, 2012
Sep 19, 2022
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
SibNeft 23
99.71
+188
358
-21
7.4
1,500
USD
6.0
Nov 20, 2013
Nov 27, 2023
BBB-/Baa2/BBB
TNK 15
102.03
-11
268
+4
0.7
500
USD
6.25
Feb 2, 2010
Feb 2, 2015
BBB-/Baa1/-
TNK 16
107.86
+12
305
-8
2.0
1,000
USD
7.5
Jul 18, 2006
Jul 18, 2016
BBB-/Baa1/-
TNK 17
106.93
+55
318
-17
2.6
800
USD
6.625
Mar 19, 2007
Mar 20, 2017
BBB-/Baa1/-
TNK 18
111.56
+68
336
-14
3.3
1,100
USD
7.875
Oct 10, 2007
Mar 13, 2018
BBB-/Baa1/-
TNK 20
109.96
+114
346
-16
4.7
500
USD
7.25
Feb 2, 2010
Feb 2, 2020
BBB-/Baa1/-
TransNeft 18
117.39
+5
284
+3
3.6
1,050
USD
8.7
Aug 7, 2008
Aug 7, 2018
BBB-/Baa1/-
PEERS COMPARISON
Mexican Petroleum 14C
101.21
-9
94
+54
0.5
500
CHF
3.5
Sep 15, 2009
Oct 13, 2014
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 14F
103.68
-17
25
-1
0.5
1,748
USD
7.375
Dec 12, 2002
Dec 15, 2014
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 15F 4.875
103.32
-9
13
-2
0.8
1,462
USD
4.875
Aug 30, 2010
Mar 15, 2015
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 15F 5.75
107.07
-14
61
+2
1.5
1,749
USD
5.75
Dec 15, 2005
Dec 15, 2015
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 16EF
111.36
-26
67
+7
2.0
850
EUR
6.375
Jul 22, 2004
Aug 5, 2016
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
163
USD
10.61
Jul 20, 1999
Aug 15, 2017
A-/Baa1/A+
1,000
EUR
5.5
Sep 30, 2009
Jan 9, 2017
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 17.1
Mexican Petroleum 17E 5.5
111.07
-25
74
+8
2.5
Mexican Petroleum 17E 5.779
200
EUR
5.779
Aug 6, 2009
Nov 6, 2017
-/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 17F.2
125.14
145
7.9
163
USD
10.61
Aug 15, 1999
Aug 15, 2017
A-/Baa1/A+
Mexican Petroleum 18.1
115.73
262
2.7
250
USD
9.15
Dec 4, 1998
Nov 15, 2018
A-/Baa1/A+
Mexican Petroleum 18.2
124.59
29
7.2
250
USD
9.15
Aug 15, 1999
Nov 15, 2018
A-/Baa1/A+
Mexican Petroleum 18.3
127.60
205
5.4
340
USD
9.25
Sep 30, 2005
Mar 30, 2018
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 18.4
111.51
-4
135
+6
3.4
2,484
USD
5.75
Sep 1, 2008
Mar 1, 2018
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 19
102.88
+12
97
+4
4.3
500
USD
3.125
Jan 15, 2014
Jan 23, 2019
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 19C
106.53
+13
85
+1
4.7
300
CHF
2.5
Mar 12, 2012
Apr 10, 2019
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 19F
123.04
+5
141
+4
4.2
1,937
USD
8.0
May 3, 2009
May 3, 2019
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 20
113.68
+5
158
+5
5.0
991
USD
6.0
Aug 30, 2010
Mar 5, 2020
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 21.1
110.13
-
165
-
5.7
2,393
USD
5.5
Jul 13, 2010
Jan 21, 2021
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 21.2
110.89
+23
164
+3
5.6
2,962
USD
5.5
Jul 21, 2010
Jan 21, 2021
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Research Department
24
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
Mexican Petroleum 22.2
99.57
-
23
-
Mexican Petroleum 22.3
99.80
21
Mexican Petroleum 22.4
94.25
139
Mexican Petroleum 22.5
106.67
+28
164
Mexican Petroleum 22F.1
124.00
-35
Mexican Petroleum 22P
127.06
-14
Mexican Petroleum 23 3.5
90.73
Mexican Petroleum 23F 8.625
127.75
Mexican Petroleum 24
98.27
Mexican Petroleum 25E
120.73
Mexican Petroleum 27.1
132.33
Mexican Petroleum 27.2
131.56
-860
333
Mexican Petroleum 35.1
115.47
+16
227
Mexican Petroleum 35.2
112.41
Mexican Petroleum 38
114.30
+10
237
Mexican Petroleum 41
114.31
+3
Mexican Petroleum 44.1
101.38
+9
Mexican Petroleum 44.2
91.37
Mexican Petroleum 45
112.86
+34
226
Petrobras 14
102.07
-17
Petrobras 15
101.31
-4
Petrobras 16 3.875
103.37
+5
Petrobras 16 6.125
108.84
-10
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
RATING
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
4.1
360
USD
2.0
Jun 26, 2012
Dec 20, 2022
-/-/-
4.1
360
USD
1.95
Jun 28, 2012
Dec 20, 2022
-/-/-
4.0
360
USD
1.7
Jul 17, 2012
Dec 20, 2022
-/-/-
+2
6.4
2,091
USD
4.875
Jul 23, 2012
Jan 24, 2022
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
270
+12
5.9
970
USD
8.625
Feb 1, 2003
Feb 1, 2022
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
177
+5
6.0
350
GBP
8.25
May 20, 2009
Jun 2, 2022
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
-526
240
+83
7.4
2,100
USD
3.5
Jan 23, 2013
Jan 30, 2023
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
-18
252
+8
6.8
225
USD
8.625
Dec 1, 2005
Dec 1, 2023
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
7.7
1,000
USD
4.875
Jul 11, 2013
Jan 18, 2024
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
8.5
1,000
EUR
5.5
Feb 15, 2005
Feb 24, 2025
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
8.6
476
USD
9.5
Sep 18, 1997
Sep 15, 2027
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
+85
8.4
790
USD
9.5
Sep 15, 2005
Sep 15, 2027
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
+2
12.0
2,291
USD
6.625
Dec 15, 2005
Jun 15, 2035
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
12.0
1,000
USD
6.625
Jun 15, 2010
Jun 15, 2035
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
+3
12.8
491
USD
6.625
Dec 15, 2008
Jun 15, 2038
BBB+/Baa1/-
227
+3
13.5
2,499
USD
6.5
Jun 2, 2011
Jun 2, 2041
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
214
+2
14.8
1,748
USD
5.5
Jun 26, 2012
Jun 27, 2044
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
14.4
1,000
USD
5.5
Jun 26, 2012
Jun 27, 2044
-/Baa1/BBB+
+1
14.4
3,000
USD
6.375
Jan 15, 2014
Jan 23, 2045
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
53
-10
0.3
600
USD
7.75
Sep 8, 2004
Sep 15, 2014
-/Baa1/BBB
45
-1
0.7
1,250
USD
2.875
Feb 1, 2012
Feb 6, 2015
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
128
-5
1.6
2,500
USD
3.875
Jan 20, 2011
Jan 27, 2016
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
160
+3
2.2
899
USD
6.125
Sep 29, 2006
Oct 6, 2016
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
35,000
JPY
2.15
Sep 27, 2006
Sep 27, 2016
-/-/BBB
Feb 6, 2017
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
259
-38
159
+8
296
233
253
Petrobras 16Y
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
Petrobras 17
102.67
-4
170
+5
2.6
1,750
USD
3.5
Feb 1, 2012
Petrobras 18 5.875
108.98
+12
215
+2
3.4
1,750
USD
5.875
Oct 29, 2007
Mar 1, 2018
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 18 8.375
119.26
+33
231
-3
3.8
750
USD
8.375
Dec 3, 2003
Dec 10, 2018
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 18E 2.75
101.82
-12
165
+7
3.5
1,500
EUR
2.75
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 15, 2018
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 18E 4,875
109.18
-24
172
+8
3.5
1,250
EUR
4.875
Dec 1, 2011
Mar 7, 2018
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 19
116.63
+4
254
+4
4.1
2,750
USD
7.875
Feb 4, 2009
Mar 15, 2019
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 19E
103.48
-36
172
+12
4.5
1,300
EUR
3.25
Sep 24, 2012
Apr 1, 2019
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 20
106.46
-6
269
+8
4.8
2,500
USD
5.75
Oct 23, 2009
Jan 20, 2020
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 21
103.10
-3
282
+7
5.6
5,250
USD
5.375
Jan 20, 2011
Jan 27, 2021
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 21E
103.99
-34
201
+10
5.9
750
EUR
3.75
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 14, 2021
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 22E
115.20
-19
238
+6
6.5
600
EUR
5.875
Dec 1, 2011
Mar 7, 2022
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 23E
104.91
-13
216
+6
7.8
700
EUR
4.25
Sep 24, 2012
Oct 2, 2023
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 25E
105.35
-18
252
+7
8.5
800
EUR
4.75
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 14, 2025
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 26P
102.90
-49
309
+8
8.9
700
GBP
6.25
Dec 5, 2011
Dec 14, 2026
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 29P
91.94
-46
324
+7
10.2
450
GBP
5.375
Sep 24, 2012
Oct 1, 2029
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Petrobras 34P
100.82
-56
351
+7
11.3
600
GBP
6.625
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 16, 2034
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
Research Department
25
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
Petrobras 40
104.01
-113
341
+13
Petrobras 41
102.56
-126
339
+14
KazMunaiGaz 15
106.22
-40
164
KazMunaiGaz 18
120.96
+4
232
KazMunaiGaz 20
114.77
+35
KazMunaiGaz 21
111.73
KazMunaiGaz 23
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
RATING
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
12.3
1,500
USD
6.875
Oct 23, 2009
Jan 20, 2040
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
12.6
2,250
USD
6.75
Jan 20, 2011
Jan 27, 2041
BBB-/Baa1/BBB
+18
0.6
1,500
USD
11.75
Jul 23, 2009
Jan 23, 2015
BBB-/Baa3/BBB
+2
3.5
1,600
USD
9.125
Jul 2, 2008
Jul 2, 2018
BBB-/Baa3/BBB
235
-0
5.0
1,500
USD
7.0
May 5, 2010
May 5, 2020
BBB-/Baa3/BBB
+28
235
+2
5.7
1,250
USD
6.375
Nov 10, 2010
Apr 9, 2021
BBB-/Baa3/BBB
98.11
+49
223
-1
7.4
1,000
USD
4.4
Apr 24, 2013
Apr 30, 2023
BBB-/Baa3/BBB
KazMunaiGaz 43
96.79
+104
276
-5
14.1
2,000
USD
5.75
Apr 24, 2013
Apr 30, 2043
BBB-/Baa3/BBB
KazTransGaz 17
108.43
+24
249
-6
2.8
600
USD
6.375
May 14, 2007
May 14, 2017
BB+/Baa3/BB+
TengizShevrOil 14
101.25
+11
304
-39
0.5
1,100
USD
6.124
Nov 19, 2004
Nov 15, 2014
-/Baa2/BBB+
Zhaikmunai 15
105.34
0.5
450
USD
10.5
Oct 19, 2010
Oct 19, 2014
Oct 19, 2015
B+/-/-
Zhaikmunai 19 6.375
102.75
+36
450
-10
2.5
400
USD
6.375
Feb 10, 2014
Feb 14, 2017
Feb 14, 2019
B+/B2/-
Zhaikmunai 19 7.125
104.75
+55
440
-5
4.6
560
USD
7.125
Nov 2, 2012
Nov 13, 2019
B+/B2/-
Georgian OGC 17
105.57
+21
397
-4
2.7
250
USD
6.875
May 9, 2012
May 16, 2017
B/-/BB-
SOCAR 17
106.90
-12
200
+7
2.5
500
USD
5.45
Feb 2, 2012
Feb 9, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
SOCAR 23
99.72
+21
239
+3
7.2
1,000
USD
4.75
Mar 1, 2013
Mar 13, 2023
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
CIS EUROBONDS
Research Department
-8
26
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DIVIDEND YIELDS VS. SENIOR BONDS YTM
GAZPROM
Bond Yield Gazprom 19
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Dividend Yield
LUKOIL
Bond Yield Lukoil 18
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Dividend Yield
NOVATEK
Bond Yield Novatek 21
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Dividend Yield
ROSNEFT
6
5
4
3
2
1
Bond Yield Rosneft 17
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
0
Dividend Yield
Source: Finance Ministry, Gazprombank estimates
Research Department
27
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
MAY 23, 2014
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
CALENDAR OF EVENTS
June 2
Bashneft: IFRS results
June 11
Regular OPEC meeting: Vienna, Austria
July
NOVATEK: IFRS results
2Q14
July
Rosneft: IFRS results
2Q14
August
Lukoil: IFRS results
2Q14
August
Gazprom Neft: IFRS results
2Q14
August
Tatneft: IFRS results
2Q14
August
Bashneft: IFRS results
2Q14
August
SurgutNG: IFRS results
2Q14
August
Transneft: IFRS results
1H14
September
Gazprom: IFRS results
1Q14
2H14
NOVATEK: Company strategy update
Research Department
1Q14
28
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank
(Open Joint-Stock Company)
HQ: 16/1 Nametkina St., Moscow 117420, Russia. Office: 7 Koroviy val St.
Research Department
Alexey Demkin, CFA
ACTING HEAD OF RESEARCH
+7 (495) 980 43 10
[email protected]
EQUITY RESEARCH
OIL&GAS
METALS&MINING
Alexander Nazarov
+7 (495) 980 43 81
Ivan Khromushin
+7 (495) 980 43 89
Alexey Dorokhov
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 54504)
Natalia Sheveleva
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 21448)
Konstantin Asaturov
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 54584)
MARKET AND EQUITY
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Vladimir Kravchuk
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 21479)
BANKING
STRATEGY
Andrey Klapko
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 21401)
Alexander Nazarov
+7 (495) 980 43 81
Andrey Klapko
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 21401)
Erik DePoy
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 54440)
TELECOMS, MEDIA&IT
TRANSPORTATION&CHEMICALS
Mikhail Ganelin
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 54583)
CONSUMER&RETAIL
Vitaly Baikin
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 54072)
Sergey Vasin
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 54508)
FIXED INCOME RESEARCH
STRATEGY
Alexey Todorov
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 54443)
CREDIT RESEARCH
Artem Beketov
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 54074)
Yakov Yakovlev
+7 (495) 988 24 92
Yury Tulinov, CFA
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 21417)
Ekaterina Zinovyeva
+7 (495) 983 18 00 (ext. 54442)
Sales and Trading
Sanjar Aspandiiarov
EXECUTIVE VICE-PRESIDENT
+7 (499) 271 90 99
[email protected]
Konstantin Shapsharov
Andrey Mironov
MANAGING DIRECTOR, HEAD OF DEPARTMENT
HEAD OF FI, S&T
+7 (495) 983 18 11 | [email protected]
+7 (495) 428 23 66 | [email protected]
EQUITY SALES&TRADING
FIXED INCOME SALES&TRADING
SALES
TRADING
SALES
TRADING
Svetlana Golodinkina
+7 (495) 988 23 75
Alexander Pitaleff
Ilya Remizov
+7 (495) 983 18 80
Dmitry Kuznetsov
+7 (495) 428 49 80
Vera Yaryshkina
+7 (495) 980 41 82
Sebastien de Prinsac
+7 (495) 989 91 28
Nikolay Yukovich
+7 (499) 271 91 04 (ext. 59104)
Stanislav Ponomarenko
+7 (499) 271 91 05 (ext. 59105)
Dmitry Ryabchuk
+7 (495) 719 17 74
Head of Equity Trading
+7 (495) 988 24 10
Denis Voynikonis
+7 (495) 983 74 19
Artem Belobrov
+7 (495) 988 24 11
Roberto Pezzimenti
+7 (495) 989 91 27
Brokerage Services
SALES
Alexander Lezhnin
+7 (495) 988 23 74
Anna Nifanova
+7 (495) 989 91 29
Irina Russova
+7 (499) 271 90 68
Grigory Pogosov
+7 (499) 271 90 54
Valentina Sycheva
+7 (495) 988 23 05
TRADING +7 (800) 200 70 88
Olga Trusova
+7 (495) 287 61 00
Irina Gerasimova
+7 (495) 287 61 00
Denis Filippov
+7 (495) 428 49 64
Anton Aleshin
+7 (495) 983 18 89
Timur Zubairaev, CFA
+7 (495) 913 78 57
Vladimir Krasov
+7 (495) 719 19 20
Capital Markets
DEBT MARKET
Pavel Isaev
HEAD OF DEPARTMENT
+7 (495) 980 41 34
[email protected]
EQUITY MARKET
Marina Alexeenkova
Igor Donnio
MANAGING DIRECTOR
MANAGING DIRECTOR
+7 (495) 989 91 45
+7 (495) 983 17 18
Copyright © 2003-2014. Gazprombank (Open Joint Stock Company). All rights reserved
This report has been prepared by the analysts of Gazprombank (Open Joint Stock Company) (hereinafter — Gazprombank) and is based on information obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as necessarily being
accurate. With the exception of information directly pertaining to Gazprombank, the latter shall not be liable for the accuracy or completeness of any information shown herein. All opinions and judgments herein represent solely analysts’ personal opinion
regarding the events and situations described and analyzed in this report. They should not be regarded as Gazprombank’s position and are subject to change without notice, also in connection with new corporate or market events that may transpire.
Gazprombank shall be under no obligation to update, amend this report or otherwise notify anyone of any such changes. The financial instruments mentioned herein may be unsuitable for certain categories of investors. This report should not be the only
basis used when adopting an investment decision. Investors should make investment decisions at their own discretion, inviting independent consultants, if necessary, for their specific interests and objectives. The authors shall not be liable for any actions
resulting from the use of this report. Any information contained herein or in the appendices hereto shall not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or advertisement, unless otherwise expressly stated herein or in the
appendices hereto.