CbI 3 July 2014 Tony Blair seeks to capitalise on Gulf ties Tony Blair Associates (TBA), the office of the former UK prime minister Tony Blair, is considering opening an office in Abu Dhabi. GSN understands that a decision has yet to be taken, but given that TBA already has a member of staff based in the UAE, an expansion there would make sense. Blair has good political, business and personal links with the UAE; as well as the Gulf, an office in Abu Dhabi would oversee TBA’s business in the East, most notably Blair’s lucrative work with Kazakhstan. Since leaving political office, Blair has built up a labyrinthine network of business ventures and charitable foundations, which run somewhat uncomfortably aside his public role as representative to the Quartet (see box, p2). While his Government Advisory Practice has given him the ear (and pay cheque) of governments as far afield as Mongolia, Colombia, Albania, Kazakhstan, and Brazil, he has a long history of dealings in the Middle East, and at one point had a controversial multimillion-dollar contract advising the Kuwaiti government (GSN 923/8). He still continues to develop relationships across the region; on 23 June, he was back in Saudi Arabia where he met King Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz’s son, deputy foreign minister Prince Abdelaziz Bin Abdullah and deputy crown prince Miqrin Bin Abdelaziz. The UAE seems to be a favourite port of call, however. Blair has been a frequent visitor in numerous capacities; while there as prime minister in 2006, he spoke of the UAE as a “modern miracle”, and announced it would be one of the UK’s priority trade partners. Since leaving office, he has been back in his capacity as Quartet representative and as chairman of his Faith Foundation, which has an initiative with the UAE’s Higher Colleges of Technology. In 2009, Blair also backed the UAE’s bid to host the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Friends in high places While current UK Prime Minister David Cameron has had a somewhat bumpy relationship with the UAE (GSN 969/12, 959/18, 935/5), Blair is thought to be on good terms with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ), whose views on the danger of the Muslim Brotherhood he shares. “I am not aware of any particular ‘friendship’ between Tony Blair and MBZ, but for sure they are on the same neocon line,” one source who has worked closely with MBZ told GSN. “MBZ was secretly pro-invasion in Iraq 2003, contrary to his father who had a plan for a smooth transition with Saddam Hussein.” Their views on Islamism are certainly congruent. In a speech at Zayed University in 2006, Blair said the world was facing “a battle between the forces of moderation and the forces of extremism”, and has long equated the latter with the Muslim Brotherhood, which MBZ has also ruthlessly opposed (GSN 929/6). A 23 June report in the Financial Times said that Blair had commissioned a “briefing document” on the Muslim Brotherhood, apparently on behalf of the UAE leadership, though one aide was quoted as saying the report – which comes in parallel to a UK government investigation into the Brotherhood’s alleged links to terrorism – was just for Blair’s personal use. Blair and MBZ have met on several occasions; MBZ visited Downing Street when Blair was in office, and one source said they had held a meeting in Istanbul in 2007/8, not long after Blair left office. Blair has been an advisor to MBZ’s main investment vehicle, the Mubadala Development Corporation, since 2009, the same year that the European Commission approved a joint venture between Britain’s Rolls-Royce and Mubadala; sources at the time told GSN that Jonathan Powell, Blair’s former chief of staff who has also worked closely with him at TBA, was involved in securing that deal, and a partnership which continues to this day (GSN 959/18). (In May, Powell was named UK envoy to Libya, an appointment which raised eyebrows both because of his links to Strategic advisory services Cross-border Information’s unrivalled expertise can help your business to find opportunities and navigate the pitfalls of doing business in Africa and the Middle East. • Political risk analysis • Reputational due diligence • Project tracking and analysis • Market entry reports Eleanor Gillespie. T: +44 (0)207 839 5982. E: [email protected] Mark Ford T: +44 (0)1424 721667. E: [email protected] www.crossborderinformation.com www.gsn-online.com Blair (who is said to have acted as a high level facilitator for JPMorgan Chase in Libya) and because his brother Lord Charles Powell chaired a company, Magna Holdings, involved in developing a large hotel in downtown Tripoli in partnership with institutions controlled by the family of Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi before he was overthrown). Blair and the UAE leadership also have friends in common. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev – who in 2011 hired Blair, Powell and Blair’s former spin doctor Alistair Campbell as advisors – is on excellent terms with UAE President Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed, who has made many visits to Kazakhstan, both on a personal and an official level. In June 2013, the Sheikh Khalifa mosque in the southern Kazakh city of Shymkent was inaugurated, having taken three years and an estimated Dh45m ($12.3m) to build. The Dh 110m 120-bed Sheikh Khalifa Maternity Hospital is also in Shymkent, while close to the city is the Sheikh Khalifa Houbara Bustard Breeding Centre, a conservation project for the birds which Sheikh Khalifa loves to hunt (GSN 964/9, 962/10)). Nazarbayev and Blair also go back a long way; Blair invited Nazarbayev to Britain in 2006, for an official visit during which he also met Queen Elizabeth (GSN 792/12). Blair’s personal wealth has been estimated at £70m ($119m), though it is hard to calculate from the partial published accounts of his various commercial endeavours. One of his main companies is Windrush Ventures Limited, which gives its principal activity as the “provision of management services”. It had a turnover of £14.9m in the year to 31 March 2013, and a profit after tax of just under £2m; administrative expenses including rent, travel and hotel stays were a huge £12m, and its three directors (David Lyon, formerly of Barclays Capital, former Downing Street aide Catherine Rimmer and Jason Searancke, formerly at KPMG) earned £582,000 between them, with the highest paid of the three (name Diplomats call for Blair to step down Tony Blair continues to face considerable criticism at home from a public weary of his pontificating. His latest essay, which suggested the current crisis in Iraq had nothing to do with the 2003 war in Iraq (GSN 972/14), prompted a group of former diplomats and politicians to sign a letter calling for him to step down as representative of the Quartet, a role in which they said his achievements had been negligible. Signatories included former ambassador to Iran Sir Richard Dalton, former Libya ambassador Oliver Miles, former Egyptian ambassador Christopher Long, and former London mayor Ken Livingstone. According to The Guardian, the letter was sent to US secretary of state John Kerry, Russian foreign minister Serge Lavrov, UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon, and European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. “We are also dismayed…at Tony Blair’s recent attempts to absolve himself of any responsibility for the current crisis by isolating it from the legacy of the Iraq war,” the letter said. “It is our view that, after seven years [as Quartet representative], Mr Blair's achievements as envoy are negligible, even within his narrow mandate of promoting Palestinian economic development. Furthermore, the impression of activity created by his high-profile appointment has hindered genuine progress towards a lasting peace.” Blair’s office responded by saying all of the signatories were “people viscerally opposed to Tony Blair with absolutely no credibility in relation to him whatsoever”. Blair’s office responded by saying all of the signatories were “people viscerally opposed to Tony Blair with absolutely no credibility in relation to him whatsoever”. undisclosed) getting £273,000. This article was originally published in GSN Issue 973, 3 July 2014. More thanG three decades of informed analysis GSN has been monitoring and analysing ruling and merchant family interests for more than three decades, tracking deaths, births and marriages, alliances and fall-outs, succession disputes and the rise of the next generation of ambitious leaders. Visit our site to sample our online archive dating back to 1979. A Government and Society 0 Kilometres GSN has long monitored political crises from the Iranian Revolution in 1979 to the Arab Spring, reporting on movements for change and government responses. 0 Miles Security and Defence From the Iran-Iraq war to the politics of post-9/11, GSN has followed the events and aftermath of conflicts in and beyond the region, analysing the growth of militant Islamism, military alliances and defence procurement. Gulf States Newsletter GSN scrutinises the politics and economics of the Gulf States’ vast oil and gas reserves, looking at issues including border disputes, energy security and Opec quotas. Bandar-e Abbas IRAN Qeshm Bandar-e Lengeh Forur Sirri Hormuz Larak Hinjam Shipping lanes Lesser Tunb I RA ST TO F HO RMUZ HINJAM O As-Salamah (Gt. Quoin) Musandam Peninsula Greater Tunb Nabi Forur Energy and Resources GSN 100 50 G BUKHA SALEH O Abu Musa MUBAREK O OMAN Ras Al-Khaimah Business and Economics From macroeconomics to the rise and fall of the Qregion’s business elites, from the rentier state to an Q T over-reliance on oil, GSN offers indepth coverage of public and private finance in the region. O Contact us t +44 (0)1424 721667 e [email protected] www.gsn-online.com CROSS-BORDER INFORMATION • JULY 2014 S
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