Polling News & Notes
Overlooked Recent Polling and Insights • September 24, 2009
Obama’s Job Approval Points to Republican Gains Next Fall: The latest Gallup poll shows President
Obamas national job approval at 51%, with 41% disapproving. While some other polls show his approval
rating as low as 50% (Rasmussen, 9/20-9/22), Obama appears to have stabilized in the low 50s after sliding
nearly 10 points over the summer. What would that job approval mean for Democrats’ chances next year?
Results of midterm House elections from 1946 to 2006 shows that a president’s job approval rating in the poll
immediately before the midterm election serves as a rough indicator of how many seats his party will win or
lose. The two largest midterm losses of the post-World War II era, 54 seats in both 1946 and 1994, came
when President Truman’s approval rating was at 33% and President Clinton’s was at 46%. By contrast, the
only presidents to have gained seats in midterm elections, Clinton in 1998 and Bush in 2002, had approval
ratings of 63% and 66%, respectively.
Job Approval (Gallup) Before Midterm Election
Presidential Job Approval vs. Midterm House Result
Gallup Polls, 1946-200
70%
1998
2002
60%
1986
1962 1970
1954
1990
Obama:
51%
50%
1974
1978
1982
1950
2006
40%
1966
1994
1946
30%
20%
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
House Seats Gained or Lost by President's Party in Midterm Election
-50
-60
If Obama is able to keep his approval rating in the low 50s, history suggests that the Democrats will lose
between 15 and 20 House seats—slightly better than the historical average of 26 seats lost in presidents’ first
midterm. Nevertheless, if Obama’s rating slides further, the Democrats could be in even more serious trouble.
Republicans will need to win 40 seats to win back the House next fall, which corresponds to an Obama
approval rating in the low 40s. Another 10-point slide like this summer’s could imperil Democrats’ control of
the House next year.
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