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Issue # 4 (April 2013)
Urbanization and Industrialization in Central Asia:
Looking for solutions to key development problems
Central Asian countries today practice a “concentration model” of urbanization, under which population and economic
growth are centered in big cities, as the region becomes increasingly cognizant of the need to shift from an agrarian to an
industrial-agrarian type of economy. Cities and their agglomerations under this new economic model must act as drivers
of growth, but they are having trouble handling the massive influx of people from underdeveloped areas. This economic
transition requires better management of urbanization and industrialization processes.
Most of Central Asia’s modern cities developed during the Soviet
period and were subordinated to the command economy directed
from Moscow. After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the Central
Asian were primarily agro-industrial economies with predominantly
rural populations.
Long-term development challenges
Central Asia is a dynamically growing region, but it faces a host of
long-term challenges.
1. Demographic growth. On January 1, 2012, the estimated
population of the five Central Asian countries was 64.6 million,
30.7 million of whom (or47.4% ) lived in urban communities.
According to UNDESA estimates, the region’s population will
reach 71.4 million by 2025 and 82 million people by 2050. The
urban population will increase by an average of 1.51% until
2050, outstripping overall population growth, and will amount to
55.2% by 2050.. The rural population growth rate is expected to
decline from the current 1.1% to 0.46% in 2025 and to 0.77% in
2050. The most rapid population growth is expected to occur in
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and southern Kyrgyzstan, while increases in
Kazakhstan should be relatively small. The region’s population will
remain relatively young – the average age will be about 26, while
the able-bodied (15-64 years of age) share of the population will
average 65-67%, meaning that the pressures on the labor market
will continue for the long term.
2. Natural geographical constraints. The limited supply and uneven
distribution of water and land resources make extensive agricultural
development impossible. Moreover, intensification of agriculture
Urbanization in Central Asia, 1926-2010
Center for Economic Research
5, 1st blind alley, Usmon Nosir str.
Tashkent 100070, Uzbekistan
Tel: +99871 150-02-02,
281-45-56/57/58/59;
Fax: +99871 281-45-48
www.cer.uz
results in fewer employment opportunities in rural areas. The
region’s countries have managed to diversify their economies and
solve food-distribution problems. Most of the economic growth in
Central Asia, however, derives from raw materials.
Central Asia’s countries are now facing the challenge of transitioning
from an agro-industrial to an industrial-agrarian development
model, which requires cities to play a bigger role as economic and
industrial drivers.
3. Rising migration to the cities. Excess manpower is flowing from
the countryside to the cities in every country of the region, a
process that has already increased pressure on the labor markets
and infrastructure in the cities. Until now, the lack of em-ployment
opportunities in rural areas was offset by external labor migration.
In the long run, internal migration will grow and, consequently,
there will be growing pressure on cities to absorb the surplus
manpower. But their current capacity to drive urbanization is
limited.
Urban development issues
The Soviet period saw significant growth in Central Asia’s urban
population,, the creation of new cities, an expansion of the urban
infrastructure and growth of extractive industries. The evacuation
of industrial enterprises from other Soviet republics to Central
Asian states during the Second World War had a major impact on
urbanization and industrialization. Between 1940 and 1960 the
urban population doubled, and industrial production increased
fivefold.
Population, ages 15-64 in Central Asia in 2025
UNESCAP
Rajadamnern Nok Avenue
Bangkok 10200, Thailand
Tel: (66-2) 288-1234
Fax: (66-2) 288-1000
www.unescap.org
The Center for Economic Research is jointly supported by the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) and the Government of Uzbekistan
UNDP Country Office in Uzbekistan
4, Taras Shevchenko str.
Tashkent 100029, Uzbekistan
Tel: +99871 120-34-50, 120-61-67;
Fax: +99871 120-34-85
www.undp.uz
The views and opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the official positions of the
Center for Economic Research or the United Nations Development Programme.
Arable land per person in Central Asian countries, km2
The newly created cities, however, were predominantly“monocities,”
or single-industry towns, which had narrowly defined objectives
that were tied more to cities and industries in other former Soviet
republics than to the local economy. This caused major imbalances
in the spatial development of Central Asia, thereby limiting
the ability of cities to adapt to the new economic environment
following the collapse of the Soviet command economy.
Central Asia has273 cities, which have a total population of about 24
million. The largest urban population is in Uzbekistan (8.95 million.
or 37.6% of the total population), followed by Kazakhstan(8.89
million, or 37.4%); Turkmenistan (2.5 million, or 10.7%); Kyrgyzstan
(1.88 million, or 7.9%) and Tajikistan (1.50 million, or 6.3%).
The majority of urban communities however, are small and medium
towns with populations of not more than 100,000, mostly between
10,000 and 50,000. Such towns account for about 16% of the urban
population in Kazakhstan; 25.4% in Kyrgyzstan; 35% in Tajikistan;
and about 35% in Uzbekistan.
Central Asian countries practice a “concentration model” of
urbanization, under which population and the economy are
centered in big cities. Meanwhile, small and medium towns,
despite their numbers and social importance, make only a meager
contribution to economic development. Between 2000 to 2010
alone the population of the capitals and big cities of Central Asian
countries increased by an average of 19.4%. Dushanbe is a striking
example – about 48% of Tajikistan’s urban population lives there.
At the beginning of the 1990s the Central Asian countries had a
relatively developed urban infrastructure, particularly in big cities.
There were, however, a number of weaknesses:
• from the 1970s on, the growth rate of the capacities of
infrastructure facilities lagged far behind growth rates of
urban population and economic growth;
• the infrastructure maintenance system was centrally funded
and subsidized;
• the infrastructure
was antiquated, and infrastructure
organizations had no incentive to economize and introduce
new technologies;
• in most single-industry cities, infrastructure support was
dependent on one or two dominant enterprises that funded
it.
Center for Economic Research
5, 1st blind alley, Usmon Nosir str.
Tashkent 100070, Uzbekistan
Tel: +99871 150-02-02,
281-45-56/57/58/59;
Fax: +99871 281-45-48
www.cer.uz
UNESCAP
Rajadamnern Nok Avenue
Bangkok 10200, Thailand
Tel: (66-2) 288-1234
Fax: (66-2) 288-1000
www.unescap.org
The Center for Economic Research is jointly supported by the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) and the Government of Uzbekistan
Urban population distribution in Central Asian countries in 2025
This system could not be sustained, especially in a market economy.
Today the infrastructure in every Central Asian country (gas, water
and electrical supply and sewage systems) is badly worn out,
and investment in its overhaul is inadequate. Despite the efforts
to implement administrative reforms, the region’s countries have
failed so far to develop efficient urban governance systems. As a
result, the ability to modernize the urban infrastructure is limited,
and, more broadly, so is the capacity of cities to drive spatial
development.
Prospects of spatial development
Every country in the region, with certain variations, is undergoing
profound economic, political and social transformations. In the
medium and long term. the success of these processes will depend
on industrialization and urbanization which can be managed. The
region’s governments are implementing comprehensive programs
aimed at stimulating the processing industries and developing
cities. However, these policies seldom factor into the regional
dimension; they are oriented more toward the country’s internal
situation than toward constructing region-wide structures that
could integrate specific sectors of national economies. As a result,
industrial development programs and projects that are localized
within national borders will only have a limited effect.
The socio-economic and political-administrative reforms that took
place in Central Asia during the transition period were based on
different models. As consequence, different political, economic
and institutional systems took shape. Implementing common
regional policies on spatial development that focus on cities will
require that these disintegrative factors be resolved.
New, integrative approaches must be sought to carry out industrial
and transportation-logistical projects, establish cross border
cooperation zones, etc. In this context the Central Asian states face
a formidable task – to find sectors, initiatives and concrete projects
that will enable national development strategies to gradually
become interconnected. These strategies must include a major
role for cities and agglomerations as centers of development as
well as of the creation of political, economic, infrastructural and
other conditions for expanding cooperation among urban areas.
Present report has been prepared in the framework of the joint project of the Center
for Economic Research with the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific (ESCAP). Main provisions and results of the report were discussed during the
international workshop “Urbanization in Central Asia: current state, issues and
perspectives” held in Tashkent on 9-10 October, 2012.
UNDP Country Office in Uzbekistan
4, Taras Shevchenko str.
Tashkent 100029, Uzbekistan
Tel: +99871 120-34-50, 120-61-67;
Fax: +99871 120-34-85
www.undp.uz
The views and opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the official positions of the
Center for Economic Research or the United Nations Development Programme.