Mid-day forex update for March 27, 2012, by Mecklai

7XHVGD\0DUFK
%ULHI
•
5XSHHDGYDQFHVWRIUHVKLQWUDZHHNKLJKRIDJDLQVWWKH'ROODUVXSSRUWHGE\EURDG
EDVHGZHDNQHVVLQ86FXUUHQF\DJDLQVWWKH*DQG$VLDQFXUUHQFLHV
•
';< ,QGH[ UHPDLQV FDSSHG QHDU UHVLVWDQFH FRQWLQXLQJ WR EH ZHLJKHG GRZQ E\
RYHUQLJKWGRYLVKFRPPHQWVIURP)HG&KDLUPDQ%HUQDQNH
•
([SHFWDWLRQ WKDW WKH VL]H RI (XUR ]RQH UHVFXH IXQG FRXOG EH LQFUHDVHG KDV VXSSRUWHG
(8586'KROGRQWRPRVWRILWVRYHUQLJKWJDLQVDQGVWD\ZHOODERYH
•
86&%&RQVXPHU&RQILGHQFHDQGVSHHFKIURP%HUQDQNHDUHWKHNH\GDWDHYHQWVOLQHGXS
ODWHUWRQLJKW
,WKDVEHHQDYHU\RSWLPLVWLFVHVVLRQVRIDUZLWKULVNVHQWLPHQWVDFURVVWKH$VLDQVHJPHQWUHPDLQLQJTXLWH
SRVLWLYH RQ WKH EDFN RI VRPH NH\ RYHUQLJKW KDSSHQLQJV IURP (XURSH DQG 86 7KLV LQFOXGHV ± 6WDWHPHQWIURP)HG&KDLUPDQ%HUQDQNHWKDWFXUUHQWDFFRPPRGDWLYHSROLF\LVQHFHVVDU\LQRUGHUWREULQJ
GRZQWKHXQHPSOR\PHQWUDWH7KLVKDVWULJJHUHGEDFNVSHFXODWLRQWKDWWKH)HGPD\UHVRUWWRDWKLUGURXQG
RI TXDQWLWDWLYH HDVLQJ LQ RUGHU WR VXSSRUW 86 ODERXU VHFWRU 6WDWHPHQW IURP *HUPDQ &KDQFHOORU
0HUNHOWKDWKHUQDWLRQZRXOGDOORZWKHH[LVWLQJ()6)WHPSRUDU\UHVFXHIXQGWRUXQVLPXOWDQHRXVO\ZLWK
WKH(60SHUPDQHQWUHVFXHIXQGDGHDOWKDWFRXOGEHUHDFKHGDVHDUO\DVWKLVZHHN6WURQJHU*HUPDQ
,)2 %XVLQHVV &OLPDWH GDWD ZKLFK LQ WXUQ KDV WHPSRUDULO\ HDVHG IHDUV WKDW *HUPDQ HFRQRP\ LV VORZLQJ
GRZQ
$OO WKLV LQ WXUQ KDV EHHQ ZHOO UHFHLYHG E\ PDUNHW SDUWLFLSDQWV ZKR KDYH SXVKHG ULVN FRUUHODWHG DVVHWV
VKDUSO\KLJKHUVLQFH\HVWHUGD\¶V(XURSHDQVHVVLRQ6SHDNLQJRIHTXLWLHV$VLDQPDUNHWVWUDGHGZLWKDILUP
ELDVWRGD\OHGE\DGYDQFHVDPRQJVW-DSDQHVHLQGLFHVZKLFKJDLQHGPRUHWKDQGXULQJWKHVHVVLRQ:LWK
HTXLWLHVUHPDLQLQJVWURQJ DQG'ROODUZHDNFRPPRGLWLHVWRRKDYHKHOGRQPRVWRIWKHLURYHUQLJKWJDLQV
)LQDOO\ 'ROODU KDV UHPDLQHG ZHDNHU DFURVV WKH ERDUG WRGD\ FRQWLQXLQJ WR EH ZHLJKHG GRZQ E\
H[SHFWDWLRQVWKDW)HGZLOOPDLQWDLQORRVHDFFRPPRGDWLYHSROLF\WRVXSSRUW86HFRQRP\$PRQJVWWKH*
EDVNHW ± (8586' DQG *%386' KDYH PDQDJHG WR VWD\ ZHOO DERYH DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\
86'-3<FRQWLQXHVWRUHPDLQVWXFNQHDUOHYHOVZKLOHFRPPRGLW\FXUUHQFLHV$8'1='&$'KDYH
LQFKHGVOLJKWO\ORZHUWKRXJKWKHGRZQVLGHKDVEHHQTXLWHOLPLWHGGXHWRVWUHQJWKDPRQJVWHTXLWLHV
/RRNLQJ DKHDG ZLWK QR PDMRU HFRQRPLF GDWD VFKHGXOHG IRU UHOHDVH IURP (XURSH PRYHPHQWV LQ 'ROODU
ODWHU WRGD\ ZLOO EH EURDGO\ LPSDFWHG E\ ULVN VHQWLPHQWV SUHYDLOLQJ GXULQJ WKH (8 KRXUV 2YHUQLJKW
%HUQDQNHFRPPHQWVLVOLNHO\WRFRQWLQXHVXSSRUWLQJULVNDVVHWVZKLFKLQWXUQFRXOGOLPLWVKDUSGRZQVLGH
LQ(8586'DQGSXVKWKHSDLUWRWHVWKDQGOH ODWHUWRGD\7KLVLQWXUQZRXOGFDSWKHXSVLGHLQ';<
EHWZHHQ±%HVLGHVWKLVPRYHPHQWVDPRQJVW*FXUUHQF\SDLUVFRXOGDOVRWDNHFXHVEDVHGRQ
KRZ 86 &% FRQVXPHU FRQILGHQFH GDWD SULQWV LQ 6KRXOG WKH GDWD SULQW VWURQJ LW FRXOG ZHLJK LQ RQ WKH
'ROODUIXUWKHU0RUHRYHU)HGFKDLUPDQ%HUQDQNHLVVFKHGXOHGWRVSHDNODWHUWRQLJKWDVZHOOWKRXJKZHGR
QRWH[SHFWDQ\PDMRUVXUSULVHVIURPKLP
';< ';< ,QGH[ KDV VOLSSHG EHORZ WKH NH\ GDLO\ (0$ RI 7KH GDLO\ 0$&' OLQH KDV VOLSSHG
EHORZLWVVLJQDOOLQHWRPRYHEHORZ]HUR7KLVLQWXUQFRXOGSUHVVXUL]HWKHLQGH[WRVOLSIXUWKHUORZHUIRUD
SRVVLEOHPRYHWRZDUGVWKHGDLO\ORZHU%ROOLQJHUEDQGRI+RZHYHUZLWKLQWUDGD\RVFLOODWRUVLQFKLQJ
FORVHUWRZDUGVRYHUVROGDUHDZHH[SHFWWREHKHOGIURPZKHUHDFRUUHFWLYHSXOOEDFNWRZDUGVGDLO\
(0$RIFDQEHH[SHFWHG
5XSHH
7UHQG
6XSSRUW
&XUUHQF\
86',15
5HVLVWDQFH
([S5DQJH
:HHNO\
)RUWQLJKWO\
8S
8S
6SRW
6
6
6
5
5
5
7KH5XSHHEHJDQWKHVHVVLRQRQDVWURQJHUQRWHDW7KHGRPHVWLFFXUUHQF\KDVVLQFHH[WHQGHGLWV
DGYDQFH IXUWKHU ULVLQJ IURP LWV RSHQLQJ ORZ RI WR DV KLJK DV EROVWHUHG E\ EURDGEDVHG
ZHDNQHVVLQ86'ROODUDJDLQVWWKH*EDVNHWDQG$VLDQFXUUHQFLHVDVZHOO%HVLGHVWKLVVWUHQJWKDPRQJVW
GRPHVWLFHTXLWLHVKDVDOVRVXSSRUWHGWKH5XSHHWRWUDGHZLWKDILUPELDV/RRNLQJDKHDGZLWKVHQWLPHQWV
OLNHO\ WR UHPDLQ SRVLWLYH GXULQJ WKH (XURSHDQ KRXUV WKH 5XSHH FRXOG H[WHQG DGYDQFH WRZDUGV WHFKQLFDOUHVLVWDQFH
86',15 86',15 KDV VOLSSHG EHORZ WKH GDLO\ (0$ RI 1H[W NH\ VXSSRUW IRU WKH SDLU LV QRZ
VHHQ DW UHWUDFHPHQW RI WR :LWK LQWUDGD\ RVFLOODWRUV SRLQWLQJ DW EHDULVK
PRPHQWXPEUHDNEHORZZLOOIOLSLPPHGLDWHELDVEDFNWRWKHGRZQVLGHIRUDSRVVLEOHLQWUDGD\PRYH
WRZDUGV+RZHYHUDVORQJDVPDQDJHVWRKROGDUHWHVWRIFDQEHH[SHFWHGODWHUWRGD\
(XUR
7UHQG
6XSSRUW
&XUUHQF\
(8586'
5HVLVWDQFH
([S5DQJH
:HHNO\
)RUWQLJKWO\
1HXWUDO
8S
6SRW
6
6
6
5
5
5
7KH(XURVWUHQJWKHQHGRQ0RQGD\DVWUDGHUVSXVKHGWKHVLQJOHFXUUHQF\SDVWWKHKDQGOHIRUWKHILUVW
WLPH LQ RYHU ZHHNV EHLQJ VXSSRUWHG E\ FRPPHQWV IURP )HG¶V %HUQDQNH %HVLGHV %HUQDQNH FRPPHQW
WKH(XURZDVDOVRVXSSRUWHGE\QHZVIORZVIURPDFURVVWKHPHPEHU(XURDUHDPRVWQRWDEO\*HUPDQ\
7KLVLQFOXGHGDUHSRUWIURP,)2ZKLFKVKRZHGEXVLQHVVFOLPDWHLQ*HUPDQ\LPSURYHGWRLQ0DUFK
DV FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH IRUHFDVW DQG SULRU UHDGLQJ RI 7KH VHFRQG UHDVRQ WKDW VXSSRUWHG (XUR ZDV
FRPPHQWVIURP*HUPDQ\¶VFKDQFHOORU 0HUNHO WKDWKHU QDWLRQZRXOG DOORZWKH H[LVWLQJ ()6)WHPSRUDU\
UHVFXH IXQG WR UXQ VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ ZLWK WKH (60 SHUPDQHQW UHVFXH IXQG )LQDOO\ WKH WKLUG UHDVRQ
VXSSRUWLQJWKHUDOO\LQ(XURZDVIXUWKHUHDVHLQ6SDQLVK\U\LHOGZKLFKKDVQRZGHFOLQHGEHORZ
:LWK QR PDMRU GDWD VFKHGXOHG IRU UHOHDVH ODWHU WRGD\ IURP (XUR ]RQH PRYHPHQWV LQ (XUR ZLOO EH
GHWHUPLQHGE\ULVNIORZVSUHYDLOLQJGXULQJWKH(8DQG86VHVVLRQ+RZHYHUZLWK%HUQDQNHVXUSULVLQJO\
KLQWLQJDWDFFRPPRGDWLYHSROLF\ZHH[SHFWWKHVLQJOHFXUUHQF\WRWUDGHZLWKDSRVLWLYHELDVODWHUWRGD\IRU
DSRVVLEOHWHVWRIKDQGOH
(8586'(8586'VXUJHGSDVWWKHGDLO\(0$RI\HVWHUGD\DQGKDVPDQDJHGWRVWD\DERYH
WKHVDPHHYHUVLQFH+RZHYHULQWUDGD\RVFLOODWRUVKDYHPRYHGLQWRRYHUERXJKWDUHDVIROORZLQJRYHUQLJKW
VKDUSUDOO\ %DVHGRQWKLV ZH H[SHFWIXUWKHUXSVLGH WR EHFDSSHGDWGDLO\XSSHU %ROOLQJHU EDQG
ZKLFK LI PDQDJHV WR KROG D PRYH EDFN WRZDUGV FDQ EH H[SHFWHG +RZHYHU EUHDN RI ZLOO
QHJDWHWKLVYLHZDQGH[WHQGJDLQVWRZDUGVWKHSLYRWDOGDLO\(0$RI
0)6/
&RQILGHQWLDO
3DJHRI
6WHUOLQJ
7UHQG
6XSSRUW
&XUUHQF\
*%386'
5HVLVWDQFH
([S5DQJH
:HHNO\
)RUWQLJKWO\
8S
8S
6SRW
6
6
6
5
5
5
7KH6WHUOLQJPDQDJHGWRVXUJHSDVWWKHEDUULHURQ0RQGD\DVGHPDQGIRUWKH8.XQLWDFFHOHUDWHGRQ
WKH EDFN RI VWURQJ FXHV IURP JOREDO HTXLWLHV 7KLV LQ WXUQ VXSSRUWHG WKH 8. FXUUHQF\ WR PRYH SDVW WKH
UHFHQW FRQJHVWLRQ EDQG WKH XSVLGH RI ZKLFK ZDV VHHQ DW KDQGOH 2Q DQ LQWUDGD\ EDVLV WKH 6WHUOLQJ
URVHIURPLWVHDUO\GD\ORZRIWRDVKLJKDVZKLFKZDVLWVVWURQJHVWUHDGLQJVLQFHWKHSDVW
ZHHNV 0HDQZKLOH RQ WKH RIILFLDO IURQW %2( 03& PHPEHU 0LOHV VDLG WKDW ³WLPLQJ WKH UHYHUVDO RI
TXDQWLWDWLYHHDVLQJZLOOGHSHQGRQWKHFHQWUDOEDQN¶VSURMHFWLRQIRULQIODWLRQ´+HDOVRDGGHGWKDW³ZKHQ
WKHF\FOHRISROLF\WLJKWHQLQJVWDUWVLW LVOLNHO\WREHJLQZLWKLQWHUHVWUDWHLQFUHDVHV´2QWKHGDWDIURQW
NH\UHSRUWVVFKHGXOHGIRUUHOHDVHIURP8.ODWHUWRGD\LQFOXGH&%,UHDOL]HGVDOHVZKLFKLVH[SHFWHGWRSULQW
DWYHUVXVSULRUUHDGLQJRI2YHUDOOZLWKULVNVHQWLPHQWVUHPDLQLQJTXLWHSRVLWLYHWKH6WHUOLQJLVOLNHO\
WRWHVWWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOKDQGOHODWHUGXULQJWKHGD\
*%386'*%386'VXUJHGSDVWWKHKDQGOH\HVWHUGD\EXWKDVWRGD\EHHQPHWZLWKUHVLVWDQFHDWWKH
SV\FKRORJLFDO EDUULHU :LWK LQWUDGD\ RVFLOODWRUV LQFKLQJ FORVHU WRZDUGV RYHUERXJKW ]RQH ZH H[SHFW
WKH SDLU WR WHVW OHYHOV ODWHU WRGD\ +RZHYHU IXUWKHU LQWUDGD\ UDOO\ LV XQOLNHO\ WR EH VXVWDLQHG
0HDQZKLOHRQWKHGRZQVLGHPDMRUVXSSRUWLVVHHQDWGDLO\(0$RI$VORQJDVLWFRQWLQXHV
KROGLQJLPPHGLDWHELDVZLOOUHPDLQRQWKHXSVLGH
<HQ
7UHQG
6XSSRUW
&XUUHQF\
86'-3<
5HVLVWDQFH
([S5DQJH
:HHNO\
)RUWQLJKWO\
8S
8S
6SRW
6
6
6
5
5
5
7KH<HQZHDNHQHGKHDYLO\DJDLQVWWKH86'ROODUGXULQJWKH$VLDQDQGHDUO\(XURSHDQVHVVLRQRQ0RQGD\
VOLGLQJIURP LWVHDUO\ GD\ KLJKRI WR DV ORZ DV+RZHYHUGXULQJWKH UHPDLQGHURI (XURSHDQ
VHVVLRQDQGODUJHSDUWVRI86KRXUVWKH<HQUHPDLQHGOLWWOHFKDQJHGDJDLQVWWKH86XQLWDVQRWDEOH86'
ZHDNQHVVZDVPRUHWKDQRIIVHWE\VWURQJULVNDSSHWLWHSUHYDLOLQJDFURVVWKHJOREDOPDUNHWVRQWKHEDFNRI
%HUQDQNHFRPPHQWV0HDQZKLOHWKH<HQKDVWUDGHGZLWKDVRIWHUELDVLQWKH$VLDQVHVVLRQWRGD\DVZHOO
IDOOLQJ WR IUHVK LQWUDZHHN ORZ RI EHLQJ ZHLJKHG GRZQ E\ GLVDSSRLQWLQJ GDWD IURP -DSDQ 7KLV
LQFOXGHV&RUSRUDWH6HUYLFHV3ULFH,QGH[IDOOLQJLQ)HEUXDU\DVFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHH[SHFWDWLRQVRID
GURS$OVRWKH-DQXDU\UHDGLQJZDVUHYLVHGORZHUIURPWR/RRNLQJDKHDGPRYHPHQWV
LQ<HQFRXOGEHPRGHVWO\LPSDFWHGEDVHGRQKRZ86FRQVXPHUFRQILGHQFHGDWDSULQWVLQODWHUWRGD\
86'-3<86'-3<LVFXUUHQWO\KRYHULQJQHDUGDLO\(0$RIOHYHOV7KHGDLO\56,DQGVWRFKDVWLF
KDYHORVWWKHLUXSVLGHPRPHQWXPZKLOHRQWKHKRXUO\FKDUWWRRERWK56,DQGVWRFKDVWLFKDYHVWDUWHGWR
SRLQWORZHU%DVHGRQWKLVLIVWDELOLW\LVIRXQGEHORZWKHSDLULVOLNHO\WRH[WHQGLWVORVVHVWRZDUGV
KU(0$RI+RZHYHUDVORQJDVFRQWLQXHVKROGLQJELDVZLOOUHPDLQRQWKHXSVLGHIRUD
SRVVLEOHWHVWRI
0)6/
&RQILGHQWLDO
3DJHRI
$XVWUDOLDQ'ROODU
7UHQG
&XUUHQF\
$8'86'
6XSSRUW
5HVLVWDQFH
([S5DQJH
:HHNO\
)RUWQLJKWO\
'RZQ
1HXWUDO
6SRW
6
6
6
5
5
5
7KH $XVVLH 'ROODU VWUHQJWKHQHG IRU D VHFRQG VHVVLRQ RQ 0RQGD\ EHLQJ VXSSRUWHG E\ VWURQJ FXHV IURP
JOREDOHTXLWLHVFRXSOHGZLWKUDOO\LQFRPPRGLW\SULFHVHVSHFLDOO\JROG7KLVLQWXUQLQFUHDVHGWKHDSSHDO
IRUKLJK\LHOGLQJFRPPRGLW\FXUUHQFLHVWKHUHE\VXSSRUWLQJWKH$XVVLHDVZHOO 2QDQLQWUDGD\EDVLVWKH
$XVVLHKDV DGYDQFHGIURP DV ORZDV WR D KLJK :LWK FRPPRGLWLHV DQG HTXLWLHVKROGLQJRQ
PRVW RI LWV RYHUQLJKW JDLQV WKH $XVVLH KDV PDQDJHG WR UHPDLQ DERYH WKH KDQGOH ,I ULVN DSSHWLWH
FRQWLQXHV WR UHPDLQ SRVLWLYH GXULQJ WKH (XURSHDQ DQG 86 VHVVLRQ WKH $XVVLH LV OLNHO\ WR LQFK FORVHU
WRZDUGV WKH KDQGOH 1HYHUWKHOHVV SHUVLVWLQJ IHDUV RYHU VORZ GRZQ LQ &KLQD LV OLNHO\ WR FDS VKDUS
XSVLGHLQWKH$XVWUDOLDQXQLW
$8'86'$8'86'KDVEHHQPHWZLWKVWURQJUHVLVWDQFHDW(0$RIRQWKHKRXUO\FKDUW
,QWUDGD\RVFLOODWRUVKDYHORVWWKHLUXSVLGHPRPHQWXPLQWXUQDKLQWWKDWWKHSDLUFRXOGLQFKEDFNWRZDUGV
WKHSLYRWDOGDLO\(0$VXSSRUWRIOHYHOV+RZHYHUZLWKGDLO\VWRFKDVWLFOLQHFURVVLQJDERYHLWV
VLJQDOOLQHVWDELOLW\DERYHZLOOQHJDWHWKLVYLHZDQGH[WHQGJDLQVWRZDUGVKU(0$
3OHDVHFRQWDFW\RXU0HFNODLDGYLVRUWREHVWXQGHUVWDQG KRZWKHLQIRUPDWLRQDQGDQDO\VLVFRQWDLQHGLQWKLVGRFXPHQWVKRXOGEH
XVHG JLYHQ \RXU VSHFLILF H[SRVXUHV ,I \RX GR QRW KDYH DQ H[LVWLQJ DGYLVRU SOHDVH ZULWH WR LQIR#PHFNODLFRP WR VHW XS WKH
UHODWLRQVKLS
7KHLQIRUPDWLRQDQGDQDO\VLVFRQWDLQHGLQWKLVGRFXPHQWFRPHIURPVRXUFHVEHOLHYHGWREHUHOLDEOHDQGRXURZQLQWHUQDOUHVHDUFK
KRZHYHUQRUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRUZDUUDQW\H[SUHVVRULPSOLHGLVPDGHDVWRWKHIDLUQHVVDFFXUDF\FRPSOHWHQHVVRUFRUUHFWQHVVRI
WKLVLQIRUPDWLRQ1RWKLQJFRQWDLQHGLQWKLVSXEOLFDWLRQVKDOOFRQVWLWXWHDQRIIHUWRVHOOSXUFKDVHRUDQLQYLWDWLRQVROLFLWDWLRQWRGR
VRIRUDQ\FXUUHQF\VHFXULW\FRPPRGLW\RUHTXLW\0HFNODL)LQDQFLDO6HUYLFHV/WGDFFHSWVQROLDELOLW\ZKDWVRHYHUIRUDQ\ORVV
KRZVRHYHU DULVLQJ IURP DQ\ XVH RI WKLV GRFXPHQW LWV FRQWHQWV RU RWKHUZLVH DULVLQJ LQ FRQQHFWLRQ WKHUHZLWK 1R SDUW RI WKLV
GRFXPHQWFDQEHFLUFXODWHGRUUHSURGXFHGLQDQ\IRUPZLWKRXWSULRUDSSURYDORI0HFNODL)LQDQFLDO6HUYLFHV/LPLWHG
0)6/
&RQILGHQWLDO
3DJHRI