Business Intelligence Statistical Bulletin January 2016 Mid-2014 Population Estimates Headlines Latest estimates show Wakefield district’s population is now 331,379 people. The population has grown 0.5% over the past year, and by 4.2% over the past 10 years. In 2014, 18% of the population were aged 65 and over, compared to just 13% in 1981. Population change last year comprised 4,055 births, 2,981 deaths and 593 more people arriving to live in the district than leaving. South Elmsall and South Kirkby ward has the largest population and Knottingley ward has the smallest population. Pontefract South ward has the highest proportion of the population aged 65 and over (23%). Altofts and Whitwood ward has seen the largest increase in population over the last eight years – up 12%. About this briefing This bulletin has been produced by the Performance and Improvement Service at Wakefield Council. It is part of a series that summarise statistical releases from government departments and other agencies. More details are available from [email protected], or telephone 01924 305368 Who is the briefing for? People with an interest in the size and age profile of the local population. This should include most Council managers who plan for services delivered to people. Policy officers and performance analysts. Others with an interest in Wakefield’s local population. 2.0 Summary of Statistical Release 2.1 The Mid-2014 population estimates show Wakefield district’s population is now 331,379 people. This is an increase of 1,671 people (0.5%) compared to mid-2013, and an increase of 13,342 people (4.2%) compared to 10 years ago (mid-2004). 2.2 The age profile of today’s population is markedly older than it was 30 years ago (Figure 1). This reflects the ageing of the 1960’s baby boom generation and increasing life expectancy. Age 85+ 80 - 84 75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39 30 - 34 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5-9 0- 4 15,000 Age 85+ 80 - 84 75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39 30 - 34 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5-9 0- 4 1981 male 5,000 female people 5,000 15,000 2014 15,000 male female 5,000 5,000 people 15,000 Figure 1 Population age profile. 2.3 The mid-2014 estimates for Wakefield show 7,164 people aged 85 and over (2,328 men and 4,836 women), compared to just 1,120 people in 1981. In 2014, 18% of the population were aged 65 and over (Table 1), compared to just 13% in 1981. Age People % of population 0 to 18 73,100 22 19 to 44 106,800 32 45 to 64 90,500 27 65 and over 60,900 18 Table 1 Size of population by broad age band. 2.4 In 2001, the number of births had fallen to a point where they were exceeded by deaths, and only net in-migration stopped the population from contracting (Figure 2). Births have increased again since then, and the number deaths has been declining gradually. There was a drop in international in-migration during the economic downturn. 2.5 Between the mid-2013 and mid-2014, net internal migration was +40 people (9,552 people leaving; 9592 people arriving), while estimated net international migration was +553 people (831 people leaving; 1,384 people arriving). Population change last year also comprised 4,055 births and 2,981 deaths. 5,000 births 4,000 people 3,000 deaths 2,000 net migration 1,000 0 -1,000 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 -2,000 Figure 2 Components of population change. 2.6 South Elmsall and South Kirkby ward has the largest population and Knottingley ward has the smallest population (Table 2). Pontefract South ward has the highest proportion of the population aged 65 and over (23%), while Wakefield East ward has the lowest proportion aged 65 and over (13%). 2.7 Altofts and Whitwood ward has seen the largest increase in population over the last eight years – up 12%. This is a reflection of the amount of recent housebuilding in this ward. Wakefield East and Wakefield North populations both increased by 9%. Ward Name Ackworth, North Elmsall and Upton Airedale and Ferry Fryston Altofts and Whitwood Castleford Central and Glasshoughton Crofton, Ryhill and Walton Featherstone Hemsworth Horbury and South Ossett Knottingley Normanton Ossett Pontefract North Pontefract South South Elmsall and South Kirkby Stanley and Outwood East Wakefield East Wakefield North Wakefield Rural Wakefield South Wakefield West Wrenthorpe and Outwood West People 16,245 15,301 16,829 15,771 15,057 16,304 15,514 15,024 13,854 16,547 16,426 16,075 15,041 17,772 15,716 16,374 16,045 17,230 13,917 15,587 14,750 % of population aged 65 and over 20 17 17 17 21 19 19 21 18 16 20 17 23 17 16 13 15 20 21 17 22 Table 2 Mid-2014 ward populations. 3.0 Background Notes 3.1 Mid-year population estimates for 2014 for local authorities within England and Wales were published on 25 June 2015. Estimates for small-areas were published 25 November 2015. 3.2 Population estimates are derived by taking the population measured in the most recent census; ageing this on; then adjusting for births, deaths, international migration and internal migration (i.e. migration within the UK). 3.3 The effects of international migration are estimated using the International Passenger Survey. The effects of internal migration are estimated using a combination of the Patient Register; the NHS Central Register; and data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency;
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