Publication: TODAY, p 12
Date: 7 March 2011
Headline: Deep fissures behind Opposition bravado
Deep fissures behind Opposition bravado
a has resolued tn m s b histoy by contesting all 87 seats#but canthe Opposkion twemorne its disarray?
,EUeNE
M
M BITAN
any Singaporeans will welcome the
Opposition's declaration and resolve
to contest in all 87 seats in the coming
General Election.
If it indeed comes to pass, this will be
a milestone in our political development:
It will be the first time in independent
Singapore's history that all parliamentary
seats will be contested.
One view is that by not having any People's Action Party (PAP) walkovers would
enable the Opposition, collectively, to "lock
down" the PAP big g w m their own constituencies. In previous elections, senior
PAP leaders could move around at will on
the campaign trail to help canvas valuable
support for their less-established party
colleagues seeking election.
For Singaporeans, the opportunity to
vote should not be underestimated. Voting
is easily the most significant expression of a
citizen's political participation in his country's future. And this time round, much more
could be at stake than the erosion of the PAP'S
dominance by a parliamentary seat or two.
The possibility of the PAP not securing
a two-third majority of all seats, much less
losing power completely in the coming GE,
appears very unlikely. In the 2006 GE, the
PAP secured 66.6 per cent of the total valid
votes cast. Granted, of the 84 seats only 47
were contested, and of these 45 went to the
PAP under the first-past-the-post system.
However, if we were to use the 66.6 per
cent popular vote as a proxy for support for
the ruling party, and if at this upcoming GE
every seat is contested, then a 17-per-cent
swing in votes away from the PAP could
result in a chance that the ruling party
might lose power. This seems far-fetched.
But such a significant swing in voter preference has happened before. In the 1972 GE,
the PAP won with 70.4 per cent of the votes,
a sharp drop from its 86.7-per-cent share
in 1968. Between the 1980 and 1984 GE,
there was a 12.9-per-cent drop in popular
support for the PAP.
Should a similar "freak" election outcome such as that once feared by the Prime
Minister then, Mr Lee Kuan Yew, come to
pass, the Opposition could come to power,
amid the harsh reality that it has no experience and expertise to govern Singapore.
Not yet.
Would citizens vote more conservatively, knowing a change in government was a
possibility? In GEs past, the Opposition had
hoped returning the PAP to power on Nomination Day would make voters more bold.
But the reality is that voter behaviour
is unlikely to be swayed significantlyby the
prospect (or impossibility) of leadership
change. Voters rarely factor in how others
will vote; foremost in their consideration
is what is in their own best interest. To be
sure, the PAP will still remind voters to cast
their ballot prudently, emphasising the
importance of a strong mandate.
STALEMATE AND DISARRAY
Indeed, the promise of a full-fledged contest against the PAP belies the deep fissures
within the Opposition, and the transient
and episodic nature with which some of
the parties take to affairs of the state.
How soon will it be before the Opposition parties can say, with all certainty, that
they know where they are contesting, and
without there being three-cornered fights?
The second pow-wow on Saturday
evening - two weeks after the publication of the Electoral Boundaries Review
Committee's report on Feb 24 - ended
without the all-important agreement on
who will contest where.
Throw in the wild-card factor of independent candidates and, with the GE
imminent, the picture is not rosy for the
Opposition.
At a time when the parties should be
resolutely covering the ground in the areas
they are contesting, they are still undecided
as to who would carry the flag for the nonPAP camp in 11 out of 27 electoral wards.
Any seat with more than one Opposition contestant is a sure recipe for splitting
the non-PAP vote bank and, subsequently,
defeat. Yet, some parties seem to be holding out for as long as they can for the turf
they are eyeing.
This stalemate does not inspire confidence. Notwithstanding the assertions that
progress has been made, the horse-trading.
bilateral deals and further bargaining all
suggest the Opposition parties will probably not be fielding the best possible candidate or team in every SMC or GRC seat.
In part, the disarray reflects the fact
that more parties are likely to contest this
GE than in 2006. Quite a few parties are
either very new orvery small, or non-existent between elections. They lack resources
to mount an effective campaign but they
want to contest. The other part of the matter is, even as the electoral battle against
the ruling party looms, egos, ambition and
boardroom politics are getting in the way
of any concerted strategy.
Certainly, raising t h e stakes for
Opposition contestants is the fact that the
next Parliament will have to up to nine
Non-Constituency MP seats for the bestperforming Opposition losers. So it is no
surprise that of the 12 SMCs - seen as
easier routes to the NCMP seats, with the
ruling party less likely to field a ministerial heavyweight there - the parties have
reached agreement on only Potong Pasir
and Hougang, both now Opposition-held,
and two other SMCs.
Things look better for the Opposition in
the GRCs: Only three await resolution. However, the Opposition has not won in a GRC
since the scheme was introduced in 1988.
Time is of the essence for the Opposition. We should not be surprised if Prime
Minister Lee Hsien Loong decides to dissolve Parliament when the current debate
on the Committeeof Supply estimates ends.
It remains to be seen if the Opposition
can capitalise on the excitement surrounding the prospect of an 87-seat fight,and pose
a serious challenge to the PAP'S hegemony.
Or will the reality of disunity bite?
The writer is assistant
professor of law at the Singapore
Management University School of law.