The Policy Path Forward – Iraq, Syria and Environs
10 June 2015
The Iraq Policy Recommendation
Policy Goals:
1) Immediate focus: Defeat radical Islam at the tactical level – ISIS, Ansar al Sharia, Al
Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, etc. through use of
special operations and airpower.
2) Long-term focus: defeat radical Islamic fundamentalism – the Muslim Brotherhood and
its offshoots - via use of all element of national power.
3) Create conditions for stability and security by enabling Arab nations (not militia), and
other nations in the region, to eliminate radical Islamic groups and establish good
governance.
4) Protect the minorities and peoples of the region – return minorities and displaced
populations to their traditional homes and provide humanitarian and security aid as
needed to facilitate this goal.
5) Provide a framework to strengthen nation-state model while expanding political
stability and economic growth within member nations and across borders.
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Short-term tasks:
- Prevent use of US weaponry provided to Iraq, and related material, from being used against the
Iraqis, our allies or ourselves. Demand return or conduct operations to destroy in place/where found
and conduct aggressive/expanded air strikes and comprehensive campaign in Syria and Iraq to
eliminate ISIS leadership and command and control. Recommend legislation called the Military
Equipment Recovery and Restitution Act of 2014 (aka – Get Our “Gear” Back Act) - accountability
and recovery of U.S. equipment, technology and capability.
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Enable Kurdish and other minorities (Christians and Assyrians) to organize and conduct military
operations to serve as our “boots on the ground” to walk back ISIS gains within region. Accept and
endorse the conversion of Iraq’s governance from a “federated” to “confederated’ governance of Iraq
where three autonomous states emerge under a small central government.
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Boland Type Amendment for Iraq. Establish guidelines and strategy by Congress - clear and concise
guidance to the executive – to PREVENT further misuse of funds in counterproductive military
actions (Libya et al).
Long-term tasks:
- Create an Arab ‘NATO’ – to provide both a professional military capability to defeat radical Islamic
elements, serve as a counterweight to Iran and create a civil-military framework to help bring social
order. Congress must direct planning to leverage allies and Congressional investment – and
PREVENT funding of any “militia” or radical organizations. The U.S. has invested in the
governments and the militaries in the region – leverage those resources and refuse to fund
“moderate” Islamic militants/terrorists (as there are none). Begin the creation of a “NATO” like
organization (notionally, the Gulf and Red Sea Treaty Organization (GRTO)) that would initially
include Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, other members of the GCC, and the US; the
GRTO would both 1) stem the trends of radicalization and 2) act as a counter to the growing regional
threat that Iran poses.
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Use this new Treaty Organization to move beyond establishing and maintaining security for member
states and act as a starting point for fostering improved and expanded economic, political, diplomatic
and technological cooperation among members states, allowing each state improved access to the
economic and technological capabilities needed to forward their own interests within a framework of
greater security and stability. Use the improved relations among member nations to draw needed
investment and technology into each nation and region to provide the maximum economic
opportunities, while also improving trade and reducing economic barriers.
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Accept the reality that the “central” Iraq government and its ability to govern no longer exists and a
de facto “three state” solution is the only practical way forward. In its place, a confederated
government, that works to coordinate and share resources will replace the Iraq central government
and allow for the Sunni, Shia and Kurds to establish their own national identity and autonomy with
the new Iraq central government functioning much along the lines of the European Union (EU). The
US should endorse the conversion of Iraq’s governance from a “federated” to “confederated’
governance of Iraq where three autonomous states emerge under a small central government and
work with regional allies to follow suit in endorsing and supporting this transition.
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At the same time, the US and members of the Arab coalition need to recognize the need to develop
a long-term security structure that will contain both the rise of ISIS and any follow-on radical Islamic
military – political movement, as well as the rise of an Iranian client state. The Coalition / GRTO
must recognize its role to contain Iran and prevent the rise of Iran as a regional hegemon. Only
through a treaty organization with recognized mutual defense obligations can the member states
establish the necessary level of security while still containing overall expenditures on military forces.
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Lead re-examination of ‘boundaries and borders’ for the region, with an emphasis on creating, when
necessary, new boundaries and borders that will recognize and protect minorities and prevent the
use of “ungoverned” spaces for radical Islamic elements to establish safe havens.
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Within a period no greater than 10 years raise Israel to an observer status within the GRTO.
Central to this step is the recognition by all the member states and possible member states of
their common national interests, to wit:
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National Survival and Territorial Integrity – to include the Containment of Radical Islam
Political Stability
Economic Stability and Growth
Diplomatic Stability
Prevention of the Rise of a Regional Hegemon
This step, admittance of Israel in an observer status, and Israel’s acceptance of the GRTO, and
perhaps even full membership – eventually, would serve to underline the common national
interests of each and every member state, as well as serve to provide Israel’s military and
security capabilities as a welcome part of the overall capabilities of the GRTO.
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Congress Must:
- Within the appropriations process conduct additional ‘review’ of all defense related expenditures to
1) shape the strategy and 2) define the limits of executive action; requiring specific benchmarks be
achieved and reported.
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Establish “Red Team” – organic intelligence assessment group – to 1) challenge all Executive
Branch intelligence stipulations and 2) provide staff and members of Congress factual, nonpoliticized information regarding national security and foreign policy
Put together a “rapid education” program for members and staff who have limited foreign policy or
military experience to enhance ability of Congress to act on facts.
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The Situation:
Due to the Obama Administration’s neglect we must face the following facts:
1. An Independent Kurdistan is likely to emerge - and increase Kurdish tensions with Turkey –a NATO Ally;
2. A new de-facto ISIS state comprised of eastern Syria and much of northern and western Iraq, possibly
bordering Jordan (or even including slices of Jordan) is slowly taking shape. ISIS has managed to
survive a series of gains and losses, is learning how to govern, and the Iraqi army has demonstrated
an inability to stand and hold ground. Meanwhile, the vacuum created by inaction on the part of the
US, and potential Arab coalition members, has resulted in a growing presence of Iranian forces and
influence in central and southern Iraq.
3. A ‘Rump’ Syria comprised of western and south-central Syria is increasingly likely;
4. A Shia state in southern Iraq, probably a client state of Iran, bordering Kuwait and Saudi Arabia (and
possibly Jordan) will likely emerge.
Many issues remain, but waiting for more intelligence, more information, will not necessarily ‘solve’ any of
these issues, nor make the problem as a whole less complex – these are the issues we must consider:
- Consequences of any action on current US operations in Afghanistan
- Consequences on nuclear proliferation in Mid-East
- 2nd order effects: nuclear proliferation in East Asia
- 2nd order effects: impact on Russia’s options (oil revenue increased, US ‘withdrawal’ from region)
- 2nd order effects: impact on Chinese adventurism
- Nuclear Umbrella vs. Nuclear Proliferation
- Sectarian Polarization
- Containment of Iran
- Containment of Shia
- Containment of Islamic Extremism
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Our National Interest:
Everything is “linked” – every national security action is tied to every other. To focus on pursuing US
Strategic Interests, which include (but are not limited to): Continued Free-market access (oil and other
goods); Supporting and Defending US Allies; and restoring US credibility. At the same time, the
extended heavy US focus on the Mid East has resulted in a power vacuum in East Asia and China is
attempting to fill that vacuum (while also providing assistance to Iran). Without a comprehensive,
cohesive and integrated plan, one that takes advantage of the host of US allies to be found in the Arab
world, US national interests are likely to suffer even more in the next several years.
The Opportunity:
Concerted, intelligent action now, bringing together a coalition of Arab states and others, with the US as
the primus inter pares, within the construct of a treaty organization that guarantees mutual defense, and
opens the future to an expanded series of relationships that not only provide necessary security within
reasonable costs, but also provides a framework for member states to work together to forward
complimentary economic and political goals, in an atmosphere free of the threat of terrorism and radical
Islam.
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Our Bottom-Line:
Congress must step in and use the tools it has to first prevent the Obama national security team
from making the situation worse and then, through legislation and appropriations, shape a policy
that will help.
Define and fund a course of action that will prevent ISIS from establishing its own territory and bring
LONG TERM and SUSTANABLE regional stability.
Establish a clear set of interlocking strategic goals that will address our national interests world
wide, will reassure our allies of our leadership role, and will re-establish the US nuclear umbrella
and prevent further nuclear proliferation.
Defund all national security items that do not meet with congressionally defined strategic goals and
objectives – fund only the goals and objectives that are validated by national security experts.