Afghanistan - Truman National Security Project

Afghanistan
TherightwayforwardinAfghanistanistostayengagedpoliticallyandeconomicallywhilealsocontinuingtotrain
theAfghanNationalSecurityForcetotakeresponsibilityfortheircountry’sstability.
TheUnitedStateswasjustifiedinrespondingtotheSeptember11attackswithaclearmission:wedroveAlQaedafromits
baseareainAfghanistanandareensuringtheycannevertargetourhomeland.fromthatsoilagain.TheU.S.combatrole
endedinDecember2014,butasofFebruary2016,approximately9,800servicemembersremaininAfghanistan.Theaimis
nowtocompletearesponsibletransitiontoastrengthenedAfghangovernmentthatcancontrolthecountry,prevent
terroristsafehavens,andgoverneffectively.
Background
KeyTermsandNames
Taliban:Fundamentalistregimethat
emergedintheaftermathoftheSoviet
invasionin1991andeventuallyharbored
9/11mastermindOsamabinLaden.
MullahOmar:LeaderoftheTalibansince
1996;his2013deathwaskeptsecretfrom
theoutsideworldfortwoyears.
AshrafGhani:CurrentPresidentof
Afghanistanelectedin2014andleadinga
nationalunitygovernment.
BilateralSecurityAgreement(BSA):Legal
documentnegotiatedin2014allowingfora
smallU.S.forcetoremaininAfghanistanto
trainandadvisetheAfghanNational
SecurityForce.
AfghanistanhasbeenabattlefieldsincetheSovietinvasion,whichlastedfrom
1979to1989.AftertheSovietwithdrawal,Afghanistandescendedintoacivil
warbetweenwarlordswiththebrutalTalibanregimeemergingtriumphantand
rulingfrom1996to2001.TheTalibanshelteredOsamabinLadenandalQaeda
allowingthematerroristsanctuaryfromwhichtoplanthe9/11attacks.In
responsetothoseattacks,theUnitedStatesdestroyedalQaeda’straining
campsinAfghanistanandoverthrewtheTalibanregime.In2003,theBush
administrationbelievedthewarinAfghanistanwaswonandturneditsfocusto
Iraq.Thismovebadlyunder-resourcedtheAfghanistanconflictandfailedto
securethepeace.Duetothemiscalculation,theTalibansurgedbackintothe
fightaround2006.
PresidentObamarefocusedAmerica’seffortsonAfghanistan;headded50,000
U.S.troopsthereinhisfirsttwoyearsinofficeandstoppedtheTaliban’s
momentum.Thissurgeendedin2011astheUnitedStatesbegantransitioning
securitytoAfghanresponsibilityanddrawingdowntrooplevels.Recognizing
thatmilitaryactionsalonewillnotendtheconflict,peacetalksbeganbetween
theTalibanandtheAfghanGovernment.However,thedeathofMullahOmar,
thelong-timeleaderoftheTaliban,andinsurgentinfightinghasseensome
militantssplinterfromtheTalibanandalignwithISIL—reducingtheshort-term
prospectsforanegotiatedpeace.
PakistanisacriticalplayerinAfghanistanthathasplayedadangerousdoublegameofbackingandfightingextremists.
PakistanhelpedtheTalibanrisetopowerin1996andprovidedsupporttoanti-Americaninsurgentssince2001,while
simultaneouslyhelpingtheUnitedStatesfightAlQaeda.PakistantypicallyfavorsaweakAfghanistantoprovide‘strategic
depth’againstIndia,itsmortalfoe,butPakistaniterroristshaverecentlyescalatedattacksagainstthegovernment,and
thereisthedangerthatextremistsinPakistancouldstealaPakistaninuclearweapon.TheU.S.relationshipwithPakistanis
deeplyflawed,butitremainsessentialforoverallregionalsecurityandcounteringbothtransnationalterrorismandnuclear
proliferation.
Theelectionof2014wasamajormilestonebecauseitwasthefirstpeacefultransitionofpowerinmodernAfghanhistory.
AnationalunitygovernmentofPresidentAshrafGhaniandCEOAbdullahAbdullahsucceededPresidentHamidKarzai,who
hadledthecountrysincetheAmericaninvasion.TheelectionledtothesigningofaBilateralSecurityAgreement(BSA)
betweentheU.S.andAfghanistan,whichallowsasmallU.S.forcetoremaininAfghanistaninatrainingand
counterterrorismcapacity.PresidentGhanihasalsocommittedtorootingoutcorruptionandimprovinggovernance—both
criticaltofindingalong-termpoliticalsolutioninAfghanistanbyeliminatingtherootcausesofTalibansupportandensuring
thatAmericaisnotconfrontedbyterroristsanctuaryinAfghanistanrequiringU.S.militaryactioninthefuture.
In2014,PresidentObamaannouncedthattheUnitedStateswoulddrawdowntoanormalembassypresencebytheend
of2016.AsthesituationinAfghanistanhaschanged,however,PresidentObamahasalteredthetimelineforthe
drawdown.TheAfghanNationalSecurityForce(ANSF)hasbeenengagedinheavyfightingandhassufferedseverelosses,
makingacompleteAmericanwithdrawalrisky.Anupdatedplan,announcedonOctober15,2015,maintains9,800troops
throughmostof2016,anddrawsdownto5,500bythebeginningof2017.ThemissionremainstotraintheANSFand
conductcounterterrorismmissionsagainstAlQaeda.
TalkingPoints
•
WewenttowarinAfghanistanfortherightreasonsandintherightway—wewereattacked,andouralliescametoour
aidtofindanddestroytheperpetrators.
•
Ourcombatmissionhascontinuedtherebecausethehardworkofwinningthepeacewasnotyetdone.Weallwantto
endwarsquickly,butweoweittotheservicemenandwomenwhosacrificedtheirlives—nottomentiontheAfghan
people—toseethisthroughtotheend.
•
BycontinuingtoadviseandtraintheAfghanNationalSecurityForce,wecanbestleveragetheabilityofourmilitary
whilegraduallytransferresponsibilityandstewardshipofAfghanistan’ssecuritytotheAfghans.
•
Onlycontinuedengagement—notjustmilitary,buteconomicandpoliticaltoo—willhelpthefledglingAfghan
governmentstaveoffthechallengesasvariedasinsurgentgroups,corruption,andeconomicweaknessandensurethat
oursacrificeshavenotbeeninvain.
OppositionArgumentandRebuttal
Argument:ObamahasgonebackandforthtimeandagainonAfghanistan.Hisfailuretoendthewarlikehepromisedhe
wouldisjustonemoreexampleofweakleadership.
Counter:We’restillinAfghanistanbecausewestillhaveajobtodo.TheU.S.militarycompleteditsmissionofdestroying
thecoreAlQaedaleadershipbehindthe9/11attacks;now,we’retrainingtheAfghanNationalSecurityForcetotake
responsibilityfortheircountry’sstability.Weneedtostayengagedtoensurethatthesacrificesofourmenandwomenin
uniformwerenotinvain.