CARBON STORAGE AND SEQUESTRATION IN THE SOMERSET LEVELS, UK Desk-based Assessment and Report Prepared for Somerset County Council by Prof. A. G. Brown BSc PhD FGS FSA Project reference:2009/1 Version: November 2009, Final Contact: Tony Brown, A G Brown Consulting, North Lodge, London Minstead, Nr Lyndhurst, Hants, SO43 7FT Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown Contents 1 Executive Summary................................................................................................ 1 2 Background............................................................................................................. 2 3 Data Sources and Methods .................................................................................... 2 4 Total Carbon Storage: The Approach & Methods ................................................... 3 5 Analysis & Results .................................................................................................. 5 6 Losses of Organic Carbon due to Peat Extraction .................................................. 7 7 Losses of Organic Carbon due to Oxidation and Climate Change........................ 10 8 Present and Potential Sequestration Rates Under Changing Land Use............... 12 9 Sensitivity of the System to Climate Change and Land Use Substitution ............. 16 10 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 20 11 Recommendations.............................................................................................. 21 12 References ......................................................................................................... 23 Figures Figure 1:Soil Survey of the Somerset Levels. Copyright Soil Survey of Great Britain.3 Figure 2:Part of the peat thickness map of the Somerset Levels based on survey by Cope and Colborne (1981) ........................................................................................ 4 Figure 3: Peat extraction designations. Source Somerset County Minerals Planning Authority..................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 4: The total carbon emission or removals across the U.K due to soil losses calculated within administrative area. From Mobbs & Thomson 2005-2006............ 18 Tables Table 1: Estimated total organic carbon stored in the Somerset Levels. ................... 6 Table 2: Estimated total organic carbon in the top 1m of the Somerset Levels. ........ 7 Table 3: Estimates of the organic carbon loss in tonnes ha-1 for a range of depths of extraction. .................................................................................................................. 7 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown Table 4: Estimates of organic carbon loss using extant permissions and extraction scenarios. .................................................................................................................. 9 Table 5: Peat wastage rates from Brown et al. (2003), Brunning (2003) and the resampling of the National Soil inventory by Bellamy et al (2005). ............................. 11 Table 6: Estimates of annual organic carbon loss using various estimates of peat wastage (see text for explanation). .......................................................................... 12 Table 7: Flux estimates for land use conversion used in this study. Net losses of organic carbon are in italics. .................................................................................... 14 Table 8: Estimates of the area required to offset 84,000m33 of peat extraction using the data presented in Table 7. The extracted area is assumed to be left as a lake with 0 flux................................................................................................................. 16 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown CARBON STORAGE AND SEQUESTRATION IN THE SOMERSET LEVELS, UK: Desk-based Assessment and Report 1 Executive Summary This report is the first attempt to quantify the carbon storage and losses due principally to peat extraction in the South Somerset Levels. The estimates are based upon the peat survey of Cope & Colborne (1981), peat extraction figures and planning designations from Somerset County Council Minerals Planning Authority and analytical data from Brown et al. (2003). The analytical data is used to convert peat volumes to organic carbon taking into account the carbon equivalence of the peat allowing for non-organic components and peat density. The results suggest that the total carbon storage of the Somerset Levels is approximately 10.9 M tonnes and that carbon stored within the top 1m of peat, the most vulnerable to wastage by erosion, amounts to approximately 3.3 M tonnes. At present about 1,400 tonnes carbon is removed from Somerset’s peat carbon store per year due to peat extraction, representing 0.01% of the total carbon stored. Using estimates from a variety of sources the total carbon loss from peat extraction and peat wastage can be estimated at 21,400 t C year-1 or approximately 0.2% of the total store per year. Estimated carbon losses are given for a range of extraction depths and for the areas of peat under planning designations and that have been worked out. Published values and the LULUCF methodology is used to compare these rates with possible sequestration rates from restoration and changes in land use. It is suggested that offset could be achieved through changes from arable, grassland or open water to commercial reed beds or wet woodland and/or the raising of water tables. This desk study is a first approximation and the data used is incomplete. Firstly the peat survey does not include all peat within the south Somerset Levels. Secondly average depths and compositional figures have been used for the extraction areas, and thirdly no analysis has been undertaken of the most likely sequestration rates for the particular conditions of the Somerset Levels. Recommendations are made as to how SCC could improve upon these estimates, reduce the error of estimation and provide data suitable for informed planning policy concerning carbon budgeting for the Somerset Levels area and its contribution to the County’s carbon budget. 1 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown 2 Background This report emanates from a need to inform planning considerations in relation to minerals working and subsequent restoration strategy by Somerset County Council (SCC). It is also pertinent to SCC’s carbon management strategy and its climate change strategy. The Somerset Levels and Moors are the major soil-based carbon store in the County and are also of national importance in relation to wildlife, cultural heritage (including wetland archaeology; Brunning et al. 2000) and environmental quality (English Nature 1997). It is worth noting that more than twice as much carbon is stored in soils, as in vegetation or the atmosphere, and organic soils, such as the Somerset peats make up the bulk of carbon soil stocks in the UK (Bradley 1997; Bellamy et al., 2005). Given that the Somerset Levels and Moors is the second largest area of lowland organic soils in the UK (the East Anglian Fenlands being the largest), it follows that the Levels contain a carbon store of national importance. This report provides the first estimate of the magnitude of this store and estimated carbon flux rates under certain specified conditions. 3 Data Sources and Methods The data used in this report comes from three sources. Firstly the most accurate estimate available of the area and depth of peat. There are five peat maps available for the Somerset Levels; the geological survey 1:50,000 Glastonbury map (Sheet 312), the 1:100 K Soil Survey Soil Map of the Somerset Levels (Figure 1) and three peat maps based upon the Peat Depth Survey by Cope and Colborne (1981). This survey was previously used to generate a peat depth map (Figure 2), a clay thickness map and a peat type map. The data used here were the direct measurements of peat thickness from this survey as supplied to the author by Somerset County Council. This is supplemented by figures for peat extraction and mapped areas of extraction designation as supplied to the author by Somerset County Council Minerals Planning Authority. The second source of data is the survey of the Somerset Levels undertaken by Brown et al. in May of 2003 for Somerset County Council with funding from the Environment Agency (Brown et al., 2003). This report provided data on peat stratigraphy, peat humification, reduction-oxidation potential (Eh), bulk density (BD), loss on ignition (LOI), ultra-violet (UV) peat reflectance and age-depth profiles for 8 of the major Levels of the Brue and Parrett Valleys. 2 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown Figure 1:Soil Survey of the Somerset Levels. Copyright Soil Survey of Great Britain. This report has been used to estimate the carbon content from the peat survey allowing the calculation of organic carbon (OC) storage. The third source of data is published data on carbon sequestration rates for different land uses and land use conversions from published literature. 4 Total Carbon Storage: The Approach & Methods This study has used estimated organic carbon from the loss-on-ignition (LOI) data and bulk-density (BD) data sets provided by Brown et al. (2003). The justifications for this choice are listed below; 3 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown A) LOI is a robust and accurate measure of organic carbon from organic matter (OM) for highly organic soils and peats (see further discussion below). B) This is the largest dataset available for the Somerset Levels and has a good geographical coverage. C) The dataset includes both LOI and BD on the same cores allowing an accurate adjustment for depth and tillage-related compaction and oxidation. D) This methodology allows easy comparison with other studies of carbon storage which have also used OC derived from OM. Although this methodology will only estimate organic carbon storage this is acceptable in this case for two reasons. Firstly the Somerset Levels contain very little inorganic carbon in their sediments, due to the low occurrence of Mg and Ca carbonates, as a result of both a lack of precipitation and due to leaching (Brown et al, 2003). Secondly it is the organic component of the total carbon store that is sequestered (net flux to storage) from the atmosphere and that can be lost in oxidation or peat extraction. Figure 2:Part of the peat thickness map of the Somerset Levels based on survey by Cope and Colborne (1981) 4 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown 4.1 Methods Loss On Ignition: was measured using a standard procedure of ignition in a muffle furnace for 4 hours at 550oC as recommended by Dean (1974). It is known that in theory this can lead to inaccuracies through the loss of interstitial water from clays above 400°C (Ball, 1964, Dean, 1974) and the decomposition of weak carbonates (inorganic carbon in carbonate sediments). However, it has been shown to be reliable for a wide range of organic soils and especially peats (Beaudoin, 2003) and given the lack of clays and carbonates in most of the Somerset Levels peats it can be regarded as just as reliable as wet oxidation using the modified Walkley-Black method (Beaudoin, 2003) or the use of a carbon analyser. Bulk Density: Bulk density was calculated in 1cm increments down the cores by sampling a known volume (0.5 cm3) weighing it, drying it at 50 OC, re-weighing and converting it to dry weight per cm3. Conversion of Organic Matter to Organic Carbon: LOI has also been shown to be closely related to OC with conversion factors ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 (Sutherland, 1998). Given the highly organic-rich nature of the Somerset Levels peats (Brown et al., 2003) the commonly used ‘Von Bemmelen’ conversion factor was used of 1.72 which is equivalent to an assumption that 58% of the OM is OC (Broadbent, 1953; Allison, 1965; Nelson and Sommers, 1996). This approach has been criticised by Howard & Howard (1990) but even their study shows that the relationship between topsoil OM and OC is linear and has an R2 of 0.98 and a slope (conversion factor) of 1.679. The highly organic nature of these peats, with low clay contents and no carbonates makes this approach reliable in this case. It is quite likely that in many parts of the levels the peat has a higher OC value than this conversion factor assumes and so this can be regarded as a conservative estimate. 5 Analysis & Results Organic-rich sediments have a high sensitivity to compaction and humification and so mass accumulation rates have to be adjusted for these effects by using measured bulk density as described above (Macaire et al 2005; 2006). The OM is then converted into a volume of stored OC in metric tonnes using Eqn. 1. OCs = (%LOI.BD.PV)/Cf Eqn. 1 where BD is the bulk density (kg m3) PV is peat volume (m3) and Cf is the OM-OC conversion factor. Both OC and BD have been derived from Brown et al. (2003) and 5 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown PV has been derived from the Peat Depth Survey by Cope and Colborne (1981). This survey did not cover all of the area as it terminated at the constriction of most of the tributary valleys. However, as the map shows the depths of peat in these valleys was generally low, and is probably slightly lower in OM content due to clastic sediments emanating from the valley catchments. However, there are significant deposits, including deep peats upstream of Langport (South Moor; Aalbersberg 2000) and the middle reaches of the Brue Valley (Brunning pers. com.) which were not included in the survey and therefore the PV used is an underestimate of the total peat volume of the Somerset Levels. This is considered the largest source of error in the analysis presented here and forms part of the recommendations for further work. 5.1 Total Organic Carbon Storage For the total storage in the Somerset Levels (Table 1) an average of all the data (LOI, BD) from all the profiles measured by Brown et al (2003) has been used. This allows for the universally observed variation in bulk density within the top 0.4m caused by oxidation and cultivation. The same procedure was followed for LOI which is typically lower in the upper 15-20cm. The very high LOI below this depth (95-99%) and the small random fluctuations of bulk density suggests that for the 1.5-2m these estimates should be accurate and within the error estimation of the BD and LOI measurements. Av. peat depth Av bulk density (n=506) Av LOI (n=506 ) Total area of survey g cm-3 % km (m) 3.28 0.0317 89.47 202.32 2 Est. peat vol. M m3 663.61 Est. C M metric tonnes 10.94 Est. error of %C ± 5% Table 1: Estimated total organic carbon stored in the Somerset Levels. 5.2 Total Carbon Storage in Top 1m. The methods used in the calculation of the OC in the top 1m of the Levels (Table 2) are identical to those in section 4 except that the data was averaged for the top 1m of the cores analysed by Brown et al. (2003). This has allowed for the higher BD of the top 1m of peat. 6 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown Peat depth (m) 1.0 Av LOI Av bulk density (n=300) g cm-3 0.0368 Total area (n=300 ) of survey km2 % Est. peat vol. 85.75 202.32 202.32 M m3 Est. OC M metric tonnes Est. error of %OC 3.71 ± 5% Table 2: Estimated total organic carbon in the top 1m of the Somerset Levels. As can be seen from a comparison of Tables 1 and 2 approximately 30% of the total organic carbon in the Somerset Levels is stored in the top 1m of peat. This figure is important because the top 1m is most vulnerable to erosion and wastage. This figure would be expected to remain approximately constant (as a ratio) even with any revised estimate of the total area of peat as long as the average peat thickness is around 3.3m. 6 Losses of Organic Carbon due to Peat Extraction From the above estimates it is possible to calculate the organic carbon that would be lost by removing peat from 1 ha depending on the thickness of peat available for extraction (Table 3). The full thickness of peat soils are generally extracted but the thickness of the peat soils is highly variable. Some sites have been worked for a thickness of 0.75m and others have exposed up to 4m of peat. Typically peat sites being worked today are 1 to 2m thick. Due to the uncertainties about variations in the peat characteristic (LOI, BD etc.) in the areas which have been or could be extracted and the relative uniformity of the OC content of the peat a standard conversion factor based upon the above calculations has been used which is 1m3 peat in situ = 0.01646 tonnes of OC. 1m 2m 3.3m 4m 165 329 543 658 Table 3: Estimates of the organic carbon loss in tonnes ha-1 for a range of depths of extraction. Somerset Peat is currently extracted at a rate of around 84,000 m3 per year (Minerals Extraction in Great Britain, Business Monitor PA1007, Office National Statistics). This converts to 1,400 tonnes carbon per year, equivalent to an annual loss of 0.01% of the total organic carbon store. 7 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown Peat Production Zone (PPZ) Area of Search identified in Minerals Local Plan Extraction unlikely/already completed – in ownership of conservation body, eg. RSPB, Natural England Future extraction possible – valid planning permission Extraction current Permission lapsed, expired – future extraction unlikely/ extraction already completed Extraction unlikely Extraction unlikely – within Area of Search but also environmental designated land Figure 3: Peat extraction designations. Source Somerset County Minerals Planning Authority. Maps supplied by SCC in MapInfo format were used to estimate the areas of the Peat Production Zone, current working areas with planning permission, areas with planning permissions not worked currently but likely to be worked in the future, areas worked out and completed, and areas now owned by conservation organisations 8 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown such as Natural England and RSPB which have largely been worked out. These areas are all shown in Figure 3 above. Planning permissions currently being worked (green) cover an area of approximately 275ha which includes land both inside and outside of the PPZ boundary. A further 30ha are covered by a valid planning permission (orange) and may therefore be worked in the future. Extraction scenario or policy control Estimated OC equivalent Peat volume m3 metric tonnes Estimated fraction of the total C reserves of the Somerset Levels 0.32% Extant permissions Total (October 1999) 2,150,000 35,000 Approximate volume of peat extracted 1999 2008 900,000 15,000 Estimated extant permissions end of 2008 1,200,000 19,000 Cradlebridge application 328,000 5400 0.005% Current extraction rate 85,000 yr-1 1,400 yr-1 0.01% Extraction rate scenario 25,000 yr-1 411 yr-1 0.004% Table 4: Estimates of organic carbon loss using extant permissions and extraction scenarios. From figures and the maps supplied by SCC and extraction volumes provided by the ONS Business Monitor Report PA1007 it is possible to estimate the OC storage contained in the total extant permissions and the annual rate of loss of carbon attributed to peat extraction at the current rate. An extraction rate scenario of 25,000m3 peat per year is also provided which is the volume of supply if the UK Biodiversity Action Plan target of 90% total growing products market to be non-peat 9 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown by 20101 assuming the growing products market is around 6.8Mm3, around 40% of the extracted peat is UK sourced and Somerset continues to provide 9% of the UK portion of peat (Table 4). A recent application for peat working at a site called Cradlebridge anticipated extracting a volume of 328,000m3 peat within an area of around 27ha. This represents an average peat thickness of 1.2m of peat available for extraction over the full area of the proposed site or around 12,000m3 peat per hectare. Based on the extant permissions in October 1999 and subsequent sales, around 1,2 Mm3 peat permitted for extraction remained at end of 2008, equivalent to a carbon store of approximately 20,000 tonnes. These figures could be used to estimate the amount of carbon sequestration required to offset future peat extraction. 7 Losses of Organic Carbon due to Oxidation and Climate Change Organic-rich soils can lose carbon through both aerobic decomposition and oxidation, both of which are major components of peat wastage, and through leaching. Rates of peat wastage have been calculated for the Somerset Levels using age/depth estimated truncation rates by Brown et al. (2003) and these are given in Table 5. The figures used here are based on the 1775 assumed enclosure date and exclude West Sedgemoor as this was the only site not to have shown significant wastage since enclosure. The reason for taking the earliest date for enclosure is that this assumes that wastage has occurred over a longer rather than shorter period and is likely to produce a minimum estimate of the true wastage rate. 1 UK Habitat Actions – Lowland Raised Bog, “Undertake and promote research and development of sustainable alternatives to peat to speed up reduction of peat used in both amateur and professional markets. Aim for a minimum of 40% of total market requirements to be peat-free by 2005 and 90% by 2010.” 10 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown Author Method Mean/median Wastage Rate Wastage rate Range mm yr-1 mm yr-1 Brown et al. (2003) age/depth rate (with enclosure assumption) based truncation method 4.74 (mean) 0.87-8.70 Brunning (2003) peat wastage pins 6.15 (median) 4.4-7.9 Bellamy et al. (2005) OM & OC measurements over 25 years > 12 - Table 5: Peat wastage rates from Brown et al. (2003), Brunning (2003) and the re-sampling of the National Soil inventory by Bellamy et al (2005). This can be compared with the rates of carbon loss that have been estimated for England and Wales derived using National Soil Inventory of England and Wales (Cannell et al. 1999) as re-sampled by Bellamy et al. (2005) using their rates for organic soils (>300 g kg-1). Their results strongly suggest that the rise in temperatures over the last 25 years is the main cause of carbon loss and that the losses have been greatest for organic-rich soils and peats. Using their figures an estimated loss for the Somerset levels can be calculated (Table 6). However, there are several reasons for believing that this is probably a significant overestimate. Carbon content is exponentially related to depth in most soils, but not in peats and so a more accurate calculation has been made by applying their estimated rates of change by area rather than by volume and then expressing it as a percentage of the total carbon volume. This may still be an over-estimate as there are strong reasons to believe that carbon loss is largely due to increasing decomposition in the aerobic horizons of the profile and that if soils are saturated then losses are greatly reduced (Kechavarzi et al. 2007), although raising water levels can increase methane production this does not decrease soil carbon significantly (Lloyd pers. com.). This dependency on the depth to water table is probably the reason that Bellamy et al. (2005) found no further increase in the rate of loss from soils with over 300g kg-1 carbon content. It follows that the maintenance of high water-levels in the moors and levels will reduce, or at least minimise, losses due to future climate change and this has been confirmed by the experimental data from West Sedgemoor reported in Kechavarzi et al. (2007) and Tadham Moor reported by Lloyd (2006, 2009). This is 11 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown also an assumption made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their assessments using LULECFS (see below). Average adjusted loss rate (from Brown et al 2003) Peat wastage rate estimated by Brunning (2003) x 1000 tonnes yr-1 x 1000 tonnes yr-1 1.56 14.6-26.3 Using estimate of OC loss from National Soil resampling (Bellamy et al. (2005) x 1000 tonnes yr-1 18.78 Table 6: Estimates of annual organic carbon loss using various estimates of peat wastage (see text for explanation). Using a value of 6mm yr-1 a mean of the estimates by Brown et al. (2003) and Brunning (2003), and similar, although lower than the rates estimated by Kechavarzi (2009) this would represent a carbon loss of approximately 20,000 tonnes yr-1. As discussed above the presence of a high water table could limit carbon losses and therefore as the levels and moors lower due to wastage and erosion there is a minimum level set by the water table below which wastage will not continue if the water table remains at a constant level. 8 Present and Potential Sequestration Rates Under Changing Land Use Changes from one land use to another will result in changes to the carbon stocks over time whereas no land use change will represent a steady state if the organic content of the soil is not increasing (for example if no peat is forming) and the organic production is not being used as a substitute for fossil fuels (according to Kyoto rules and interpreted by the UK Government (DECC 2008). This is a complicated issue and at present there is not clear guidance and so it must be assumed that peat is a biofuel and so the calculations are based upon this assumption and the land use that is in place prior to extraction as per LULUCF (see Couwenberg undated for further discussion). Therefore the simplest approximation to the sequestration of carbon into the Levels is based upon the OM/carbon concentration of sediments and the flux rate under steady state conditions (e.g. no climate change). The background to, and methodology for accounting this change is provided by the IPCC Good Practice Guide (GPG IPCC 2003) for land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). Land use changes are reported to IPCC as changes to or from any of 6 land use classes which are; A. Forestry, B cropland, C 12 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown grassland, D wetlands, E settlements and F other land. The Other land (F) class contains open water (lakes, rivers etc.) and rocky areas and it is assumed that they are C neutral (Mobbs & Thomson, 2005-2006; CEH 2008). These categories have been used as comparisons with the net effect of peat extraction. This is a generic approach and a few comments are warranted on the assumptions made and how appropriate it is in the Somerset Levels context. In essence the Somerset Levels are a series of wetlands that formed over the last 10,000 years (the Holocene) along a number of low-lying river valleys. The role of wetlands, and floodplains, as net carbon sinks is indicated by the preservation of organic material within wetland or floodplain fills. Alluvial wetland and floodplain peats generally originally deposited in rheotrophic-Eutrophic fens, are typically 40-90 % organic matter (OM) whereas overbank silt clay deposits are typically 2-4 % OM and ombrotrophic peats are typically 90-99% OM (Macaire et al 2006). As has been shown by Brown et al. (2003) and palaeoecological studies (Housley, et al. 2000; Aalbersberg, G. 2000) the peats of the Somerset levels are transitional between alluvial-rheotrophic peats and ombrotrophic peats due to the existence of at least two areas of raised mire in the Holocene – in the central Brue Valley and in the central-north Parrett Valley (Housley et al. 2000). Today the Somerset Levels are a mosaic of grassland (improved and unimproved), open reed/sedge dominated fen and very small areas of wet woodland dominated by alder (Alnus glutinosa) and willows (Salix sp.). The carbon uptake of grasslands is dependant upon nitrogen availability typically varying between 2 and 6 tonnes of C ha yr-1 (Luscher et al. 2004). Alder woodland can sequester 5 to 10 t C ha yr-1 and sedge fen up to 20 t C ha yr-1 (Ramade 2003). These figures are significantly higher than the in-situ C storage rates for wetlands soils such as for the present Rhine floodplain of 0.05 to 0.17 t C ha yr-1 (Hoffman and Glatzel 2007). This is probably due to the lack of incorporation into the estimate of CO2, CH4 and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) losses from these environments (Sutherland 1998). Theses estimates and the transition estimates used by LULUCF are used to provide estimates of sequestration rates for other land uses in the Somerset Levels (Table 7). 13 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown Table 7: Flux estimates for land use conversion used in this study. Net losses of organic carbon are in italics. LULUCF Land Use Flux or Class Land Use Transition flux LULUCF kg m2 flux estimates sources and comments OC flux Luscher et al. 2004 +2-6 (Thomson et al. 2008) C Cropland or C neutral LU to improved grassland +23 Hofffman & Glatzel. 2007 tonnes ha yr-1 (+0.05-0.17) 2-3 MAFF (NZ) A Cropland or neutral LU to wet woodland (Alnus) +25 Ramade 2003 +5-10 F Grassland with high water-table (saturated) - assuming steady state and no peat growth and no wastage 0 F fishing lake 0 F* commercial reeds beds Ramade 2003 +5-20 Sphagnum peat bog (theoretical) +0.20-0.37 20-37 g m-2 yr-1 (Clymo et al 1998) - 40-70 g m-2 yr-1 (Cannell et al. 1993) +0.40-0.70 Sphagnum/herbaceous peat growth estimated from the average peat accumulation rate 0.75 mm yr-1 (Brown et a. 2003) B Ploughing of grassland – with low water-table -23 2.3% C store loss, -3.0 or 0.3 kg m-2 (Hargreaves et al. 2003) C* Grassland with peat extraction - using this study (with average peat depth) and 0 grassland net flux -541 peat wastage - Brown et al. (2003) -0.08 Brunning (2003) 14 +0.12 -0.72-1.30 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown As can be seen from Table 7 there is considerable variation in the estimates of flux rates from different land uses and therefore from land use conversion. This is both due to differences in the method of estimation and also the high degree of variability in the processes involved as discussed below. In theory standing freshwater can act as both a sink and source. It can act as a sink through the uptake of bicarbonates in water by aquatic organisms and direct fixation of atmospheric CO2 by aquatic plants and by algae (including phytoplankton). This carbon then may accumulate at the bottom of the pond or lake and can amount to a sequestration rate of 0.15 t C ha yr-1 (Campbell et al. 2000). The extreme example of this is the peat Norfolk Broads with are Medieval peat cuttings filled with organic-rich lacustrine sediments. However, this carbon accumulation is dependant upon the biological productivity of the water and this is controlled by water chemistry and depth. It may also not be desirable for other reasons that restoration ponds be filled with algae as it can cause a nuisance and poison both fish and animals. For several reasons therefore the restoration of peat workings to lakes or ponds in the Somerset Levels is unlikely to cause significant carbon sequestration and so the assumption in LULUCF of water being carbon neutral is justified. Reed beds either fringing water bodies or infilling old workings are known to sequester carbon from the atmosphere, although there is considerable variation in the estimates of the magnitude of this flux from 5 to 20 t C ha yr-1 (Table 7). If the reeds are cut or cropped the result in carbon accounting terms depends upon their eventual use, if used for thatching or mulching then that cropped component becomes a carbon source, but if it is used for biofuel effectively replacing fossil fuels or compost which replaces a peat product, then that is counted as a carbon offset. In the case of grasslands the rate of carbon sequestration is known to be sensitive to drainage and nitrogen supply (Kechavarzi et al. 2007; Van Groenigen, et al. 2006) and a net effect will only be gained on conversion (from a neutral or negative flux land use) unless the crop is taken and used for biofuel effectively substituting for fossil fuels. In the case of arable land and ploughing the figures are variable as it is believed to vary with the organic content of the soil and so in highly organic peats would be at the highest rates. It is not possible, however, to use the estimates based upon a percentage of the carbon stock in the soil, because in deep peatlands, unlike most 15 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown soils, most of the OC lies beneath the plough zone and so the results would be far too high. It is more realistic to take measured absolute flux rates and regard them as minimum estimates. There has also been recent work on the effect of tillage and soil erosion which suggests that the net effect of soil erosion is probably neither a source or sink (Van Oost et al. 2007). In the case of peatlands, variable estimates would be expected due to the variation in peat types (upland/lowland, herbaceous/wood/Sphagnum etc.) and the observations that CO2 exchange can vary with temperature (Hargreaves et al. 2003) and water-table conditions (Worrall, et al. 2003). Additionally the flux of CH4 from peatlands is also temperature and water table sensitive (Best and Jacobs 1997; Van den Pol-Van Dasselaar et al. 1999). 9 Sensitivity of the System to Climate Change and Land Use Substitution From the figures presented above an approximate area of conversion required to compensate for current rates of peat extraction can be calculated (Table 8). Due to the variation in estimates of sequestration and the comments made previously these figures must be regarded as preliminary estimates and only indicative. Land use conversion Minimum OC Maximum flux (tonnes OC flux ha yr-1) (tonnes ha yr-1) Estimated required conversion to offset current annual peat extraction rate (ha) Arable or open water to reed bed/sedge fen 5 20 70 - 280 Grassland to reed-bed 3 18 80 - 460 Arable to wet woodland 5 10 140 - 280 Grassland to wet woodland 3 8 170 - 460 Arable to grassland 2 6 230 - 690 Arable to peat land 0.12 0.4 1350 - 4500 Table 8: Estimates of the area required to offset 84,000m3 of peat extraction using the data presented in Table 7. The extracted area is assumed to be left as a lake with 0 flux. 16 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown From Table 8 it can be seen that using these estimates the best option for carbon offsetting, in order to minimise land conversion, would be to encourage conversion of arable land or grassland (drained), to reed bed or sedge fen. This would require conversion of a minimum of 70ha. Based on the Cradlebridge application site where approximately 12,000m3 peat would be extracted from 1 hectare of land, an equivalent of 7 hectares are currently extracted annually, i.e. at best 10 hectares of land is required to be converted to reed beds for every 1 hectare of extracted peat. The very high areas of conversion to Sphagnum bog or peatland accumulation that would be required reflect the low measured carbon net storage flux (sequestration) of peats, although these rates are probably unrealistically low in comparison with favourable conditions, which might maximise peat growth. The rate of peat growth has varied over the years but if ideal conditions were created on the Levels and Moors a rate of just over 1mm/yr could be achieved. More research is required into the on-site mitigation of peat extraction, through Sphagnum peat re-growth, as it is clearly a highly attractive option if it can be shown to be effective. In the absence of better figures for peat re-growth the best option from a carbon sequestration perspective is clearly to restore workings to reed-beds (e.g. Phragmites) but only if the reeds are left to decay in situ or, if they are cropped, the crop used as biofuel to replace fossil fuel sources or used for reed compost and therefore replacing a peat product. In theory the use of reeds for thatching or for mulching would, over a cut-cycle, have no net effect on carbon storage and so not represent any mitigation of the carbon loss due to extraction. As mentioned previously carbon offset is only accounted for on conversion although future carbon offset may be achieved depending on future land management. 17 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown Figure 4: The total carbon emission or removals across the U.K due to soil losses calculated within administrative area. From Mobbs & Thomson 20052006. From the analysis above comparisons can be made with the National Inventory estimates for countywide carbon losses due to soil loss. Somerset is estimated to be in the category of total 15 to 25 t C km-2 emissions (from Mobbs & Thomson, 20052006; Figure 4) which is equivalent to a loss of approximately 70,000 t C yr-1. The effect of peat extraction at current rates of 84,000 m3 yr-1 when averaged over the area of the Levels and Moors is 7 t C km yr-1. Over the County as a whole it contributes approximately 2% of the County’s carbon emissions through soil losses 18 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown although the area worked per year is only around 0.001% of the county. The losses through soil wastage and peat extraction in the Levels and Moors accounts for around 30% of the county’s soil carbon losses whilst only covering 6% of the county. There is an opportunity for the offsetting of carbon loss due to peat extraction by changes to land use within the Somerset Levels or elsewhere (within the same spatial carbon accounting unit) such as conversion of grassland or arable to commercial reed beds. However, a strong note of caution is required. Firstly the methodology and scientific basis upon which many of the current carbon accounting procedures is based is questionable and will be the subject of revision in the next few years. A good example of this is revision of the role of tillage and soil erosion in the carbon storage and flux of arable fields (Van Oost et al. 2007). The assumption made by LULUCF of open water bodies being carbon neutral is also questionable and dependant upon the management and biological productivity of the resultant water bodies. Secondly any mitigation through land use change may have other effects that could easily outweigh the advantages in carbon accounting terms. The most attractive option is clearly to maximise the carbon capture of in situ peat since if any carbon accumulation above that for the surrounding land use would represent a direct reduction of the carbon loss and over a number of years could mitigate a proportion of organic carbon lost from the Somerset Levels and emitted to the atmosphere. 19 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown 10 Conclusions This report presents the first estimation of carbon stocks and losses (emissions) due to past and present peat extraction in the Somerset Levels and Moors. Estimates have been based on the available peat area data, known areas and volumes of extraction and conversions of peat to organic carbon using analytical data from a comprehensive survey of the peats of the Levels by Brown et a. (2003). The results indicate that the rates of extraction are small in relation to the total carbon stored in the levels but do, along with wastage rates, represent a significant net carbon loss. Combined extraction and wastage amount to about 21,400 tonnes yr-1 or about 0.2% of the total storage in the Levels. The extraction component (approximately 1,400 tonnes yr-1) could be offset by conversion of other areas of the Levels, or elsewhere in the County, to land uses with higher carbon storage, in vegetation or in soils; or under the Kyoto rules, the use of biomass to offset fossil fuel usage. The best option to minimise land use change required to offset, based on all the available data, would be conversion to reed bed from arable land or water bodies. Using current extraction rates this would require at least 70 ha per year to be converted, around 10 times the area of land extracted for peat. Although not part of this report observations that the rate of carbon loss form organic soils, and probably the overall peat wastage rate, is sensitive to climate change could significantly increase the loss of carbon from the peat store, especially in drained areas outside the zones of watertable management. Unlike peat extraction which generally removes the full thickness of peat including below the water table, peat wastage and erosion is limited by the depth to the water table. In West Sedgemoor where high water tables have been maintained this has been the case. It must be noted that all the estimates in this report are based upon average depth assumptions and approximate extraction rates. Further refinement is required of several components of the carbon budget, and a more complete analysis of appropriate carbon land use conversion estimates, as recommended below, in order to provide estimates which could be used to provide a firm policy basis. 20 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown 11 Recommendations This report has prompted a number of technical recommendations for further work which Somerset County Council could consider in order to improve its estimates of carbon flux and peat extraction. 1. One source of potential inaccuracies could be reduced by producing a Somerset Levels OM to OC carbon relationship and conversion factor. This would be possible using a C auto-analyser and cores archived at the University of Southampton from the Brown 2003 survey augmented by cores from the current and proposed extraction areas. 2. It would be possible to make more accurate estimates of the carbon loss through peat extraction by combining the extraction areas (worked, or being worked or with permission to work) with the peat depth mapping of Cope and Colborne (1981). This would involve re-interpolating their data and then overlaying with the relevant area boundaries and the calculation of volumes from the two layers. This would be possible using ArcGIS. 3. The peat survey upon which this report is based (Cope and Colborne, 1981) did not cover all the areas of known peat in the Somerset Levels. Data from various sources including Aalbersberg (2000), Housley et al (2000) and Brown, et al (2003) indicate other areas of significant peat preservation. It would be possible to improve the peat survey using both these data (and other stratigraphic data) and targeted peat depth coring in order to provide a more complete and accurate estimate of peat volumes. This would be required in order to produce a complete estimate of peat within the South Somerset Levels and therefore more reliable estimates of the relative carbon loss to store ratio. 4. The production of accurate estimation of possible carbon off-setting by land use, and land management changes, in the Somerset Levels using specified areas. This would involve the modelling of the current situation using contemporary land use data, or generating that data from remote sensing, combined with the areas of potential change. 5. A more detailed assessment of the alternative methods of restoring worked areas in order to maximise carbon sequestration. The alternatives to be evaluated would 21 Carbon Storage and Sequestration in the Somerset levels, UK: A. G. Brown include, Sphagnum re-growth, carbon (OM) burial, the afforestation with wetland trees, reed-beds (of various densities) and open water. 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